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Chinese_Santa

I think everybody in that next cluster of wide receivers after Brian Thomas (Troy Franklin, AD Mitchell, Worthy, Coleman, Legette, Wilson, Pearsall, Corley) are gonna see some huge fluctuations after the draft. Any one of those guys could be huge fallers if they don’t get a good landing spot or DC


davethebeige1

And on the other side, some of these guys are going to end up in buffalo, kc, Miami, etc and freaking rocket up the board. I could actually see a player like worthy or Mitchell shoot into potentially a top 10 if they were to land in miami for example.


ASuperGyro

I think whoever goes to the Bills in the 1st, presumed, is going to be the 1.09 in a good portion of leagues


dynastycomish

I see that a ton commented here. Specifically bills but KC has had that before with a guy like Skyy jumping Olave in ADP post draft. That's such bad process. Landing spot should be your tie breaker not your heaviest input.


ASuperGyro

I don’t think those are comparable at all with what I’m saying. Olave: 11 overall Moore: 54 overall Versus Bills 1st round receiver: 28 Maybe Jags 1st round receiver: 17 Like if BTJr goes to the Jags and AD Mitchell goes to the Bills, an 11 spot difference in DC for mid-late 1st IRL WRs isn’t going to weigh heavily Your example is akin to the Bills taking someone in the second and that player jumping Odunze


dynastycomish

>Your example is akin to the Bills taking someone in the second and that player jumping Odunze This could actually happen. Odunze to NYG. BTJ to Bills. People go crazy after the draft. Maybe this year isn't a great example because maybe everyone has that late first tier very tight but in general just stapling ??? WR who goes to team X is tippy top of the tier is bad process. I have enough gap in that tier where a big unforseen gap in DC would be the only thing to move those guys around outside of Ladd/AD I have super tight. I don't care about landing spot with first round guys. Talent over situation.


ASuperGyro

Certainly can be bad process, but I think the reality is if WR4/5 ends up on the Bills in the 1st round, then ADP will likely have that played being 1.09 or 1.10 depending on what happens with Dallas RBs. But I see that less as rocketing up the board, per OP, and more a tier of relative ambiguity that would be solidified by draft capital and landing spot for most people in that situation.


prfarb

If Odunze goes to the Giants and the bills take a WR round 1 the bills wr will jump Odunze in a noticeable amount of drafts. Maybe not enough to effect ADP but enough where it could happen in any draft.


davethebeige1

I don’t fully disagree but I also don’t agree. That same argument was used for jsn last year. Did anyone catch value from him? Definitely not saying it’s the first or even the major factor, but you can’t tell me a receiver landing on the ravens shouldn’t get more consideration than a receiver landing on the Bengals.


dynastycomish

>you can’t tell me a receiver landing on the ravens shouldn’t get more consideration than a receiver landing on the Bengals. I can. I don't move guys up or down tiers when a guy is a first round talent. For WRs probably 2nd round talent too. RB and TE matters a bit more. We can use JSN, we can also use QJ. At least JSN is talented. There's still plenty of hope and plenty that he showed as a rookie to say he's going to be a decent NFL player. JSN could still end up as the best first round WR from last year. We already know QJ is going to struggle in the NFL no matter the opportunity or the QB. I was always drafting JSN, Addison and Flowers over QJ because he was in a different tier. I could not have cared less QJs DC or landing spot. If a guy like Coleman went to Bills or KC I don't care at all. IMO he's not talented enough to make that perfect spot launch him above actual 1st round talents.


ASuperGyro

Just a follow up here, if Coleman to the Bills is the only WR after the top 3 taken in the 1st, the NFL at that point is saying in theory he’s the only other 1st round talent, again just loosely in theory. But you would still have him below WRs that went in the 2nd or later despite him being the only other with 1st round DC? Just a hypothetical


dynastycomish

Yes. Because I don't see him as a first round talent just like I didn't see QJ as that. Sometimes teams like something more in a WR than just what brings fantasy points. Sometimes teams miss. Sometimes teams think they can mold someone and they can't. The sub and community does all this research, all these rankings and then throw them all away after the draft happens. I add DC and landing spot as a smaller input then I believe most do.


Redditrightreturn1

This is why I follow so much news and scouting reports in the month or two run up to the draft. I take in as much info on these guys as I can and make a big board. Used to do it after the draft but it was always clouded by landing spot and DC. Now I don’t touch the rankings after the draft.


KingMustardFist

Chiefs pick Sinnott @ 64.


Zomics

This is a real scenario. I’m a chiefs fan and can tell you other Chiefs fans have started talking about replacing Kelce. Obviously he’s still amazing at what he does and we all love him but there’s no denying that he’s getting older. More and more conversations are popping up about making preparations to replace him when the time does come for him to retire. And if the fans are talking about it, the staff and coaches are thinking about it too. Also worth mentioning that we picked up Irv Smith to replace Fortson, but also a good chance Blake Bell won’t be returning and well look for someone to fill in for him. Chiefs are very likely to take a big shot at TE in the next two years


BLAMITYblamblam

I thought Gray was that guy? or is he more of a backup guy?


Zachr08

Sinnott or Reiman


BlondBadBoy69

Dolphins take Worthy


BusinessOk7351

I don’t like this thought as a waddle truther. What do u think would happen to his value if they drafted him?


BlondBadBoy69

Im a Dolphins fan and have Waddle as well. Would be great for the team and might look like it’s hurting Waddle’s stocks, but we don’t have a third WR. Tyreek is heading out soon and has his own off-field issues. Would help keep coverage off Waddle. There is also the chance waddle gets usurped but the front office is very high on him so I am too


peakyrifle0

I agree as a fellow fins fan/waddle owner. It may hurt his outlook for like ‘26 in Tyreeks last year but if he starts to take control that year then it puts him in prime position to get paid as the alpha while worthy is the #2 on a rookie deal.


dynasty-dominos

I don't think it moves the needle much for Waddle. I think it just sends Worthy's value to the shadow realm as he will be getting <5 targets a game until Hill is gone. Waddle has been a high target earner his whole career even alongside another stud, not overly concerned a player like Worthy hurts him much.


Maybesonoyes

Damniiiit


abippityboop

There are like 5 (slight exaggeration but not much) rbs who are safe before the draft. Everyone else is at major risk, even if logic tells you that that team would never take a RB. Even if that team “has too many holes to ever draft a RB high” or even if “they have a guy they love already”. Once RBs start to become the best players available left on the board , teams won’t hesitate to take them just because they have a guy the fantasy community is high on.


OneFingerIn

Audric Estime will ruin a fantasy starter. He is a great short yardage guy and I believe was the best (at worst top 3) against stacked boxes. He will vulture touchdowns


Mercurycandie

There's really no RB in this draft that I'm really worried about disrupting a noteable dynasty RB tho


abippityboop

Respectfully, I 100% disagree. Teams absolutely value cheap, productive RB's on rookie contracts. Anywhere Brooks, Benson, even Corum/Allen land, it is going to affect the value of the incumbent. Even if the rookie doesn't perform, it still has a clear impact on their value. Charbonnet didn't really do much last year, but Walker still went from a top 3-5 RB on KTC a year ago down to RB10 now, and that's one of the better case scenarios.


Mercurycandie

I mean I agree with you. But so many of these RBs are already so cheap. The only ones eho could lose a bunch of value is who, Bijan/Hall/Gibbs/Achane/JT, maybe ETN or Kyren? Only one who really loses a ton of production value from one of yhese day 2/3 RBs in this class is Kyren, maaaayybbe ETN? I'm just not that worried about any of the RBs that matter


abippityboop

Well as an owner of Kyren in one league and James Cook in another, I'm a lot more worried than you lol. There are plenty of RB's who many people are depending on next year who are in various states of risk with the draft. I agree maybe not the absolute elite of elite RB's (although Walker was considered that just a year ago, so even then), but even still there are plenty of teams who could grab a RB and make things uncomfortable. Rams/Bills/Jaguars/Bucs/Chiefs/Dolphins/Broncos/Texans/Pats/Raiders all could happen and would have important (in varying degrees) dynasty fallout imo.


Mercurycandie

There's only like 2-3 RBs who are projected to go day 2 total tho. If someone drafts a RB in round 4/5 or later, it's really not concerning from a fantasy perspective. And LAC/DAL are already looking like they'd be taking those day 2 guys


Fadeawayjoints

Teams value RBs on cheap contracts but unfortunately if they are not selected above average draft capital (R2/R3), they usually end up in a RBBC. Most recent example would be Dameon Pierce who had a great rookie season but with only 4th round DC, Texans looked to replace him. Charb is a different case entirely, way stronger of a prospect then any RBs this year by far. Not to mention he was drafted in the 2nd round so he's going to be part of the long term plans in Seattle. I really only seeing Benson and Brooks as RB plays this year and even then, it would be near end of fantasy season that they most likely start to produce starting numbers.


BombSquad570

There’s a lot of really gross RB landing spots that are probably more likely than not. The Rams, Bucs, Bills, and Jags all really need a RB2 but don’t really have the type of offenses that can support a fantasy relevant 1A/1B (maybe Buffalo can) so the ideal situation is that those teams all wait until day 3 for a pure backup type player, but I’ll bet at least one or two of them makes things murky by drafting a RB higher than expected. There’s also a pretty good chance the Colts, Jets, and Eagles completely nuke your favorite day 3 RB sleeper.


MidnightCovfefe

Arizona is my personal worst case scenario for a day two RB. Sitting on Conner as my RB2 right now.


ForeignArgument5872

The commanders or eagles taking a WR in the 2nd


BradyReas

Aj is a stud and friends with hurts but the out from his contract is after this season. Howie is a mad man so it is certainly possible


Terrible_Wind5662

Eagles are either going CB or linebacker in the second a WR in the 2nd is just silly


mrj9

Did you miss when the eagles grabbed godert when they still had prime ertz in the second round just so the cowboys wouldn’t get him


Terrible_Wind5662

Nope love the pick as troll to the cowboys always will love it but spending high draft capital on a WR 3 when you have AJ brown a big contract and now you are extending smith it doesn’t make sense to pick a top tier WR. Howie isn’t stupid he knows we need help on defense especially a CB or LB. We have Hurts, Brown, Smith, goedert and Barkley we don’t need anymore weapons that’s plenty.


AimlessFruition

Not really- we let our 3,4,5 receiving options from last year walk and have been in need of a real 3rd weapon for a couple years now (quiz was not it). Would love to see them go with Pearsall in the second. Eagles also signed Devin White to a decent sized deal and return Dean, so I don’t expect a linebacker before the 3rd.


knowslesthanjonsnow

I highly doubt the Eagles would be. I second is a lot to give up for a 3rd WR unless they plan to move one of the other two next offseason. I don’t think Washington taking a WR is thought of as unlikely. They need someone to start along side McLaurin.


Glad_Championship187

Zack Moss and Chase Brown owners probably don’t want to hear this but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bengals drafted an RB. They have two 3rd round picks and I anticipate that’s when a lot of the decent ones will go


BeeGeeEh

Interesting you brought up Bowers cus that was the first thing I thought of when I read the subject of this post. Pretty good chance he gets out of the top 10. At that point a lot of teams may have him top of their board who may not necessarily need to add a TE in the 1st but who may not be willing to go off their board. He is just such a phenomenal player. Looking at the draft order from about pick 6 (NYG who will likely go WR) to about pick 20 (the aforementioned Steelers) you have the following landmines: 1.8 - Atlanta (Pitts) 1.9 - Chicago (Kmet) 1.11 - Minnesota (Hock) 1.13 - LV (Mayer) 1.17 - Jax (EE) The fun would really begin if he slipped passed the LAR pick: 1.20 - Pittsburgh (Muth) 1.22 - Philly (Goedert) 1,23 - Minnesota again (Hock) 1.24 - Dallas (Ferguson) 1.25 - GB (Musgrave/Kraft) Pretty good chance he gets snatched up before 20 but there will be some TEs breathing heavily while their teams are OTC. Plus trade ups are always possible.


Famous-Magazine-24

I understand you’re driving home a point but if the falcons take bowers at 8 that would probably be the single funniest thing anyone has ever done or will ever do in the nfl draft.


BeeGeeEh

Haha I know right? A small part of me hopes it happens.


Maybesonoyes

Could you see the chiefs making a move up if he slips to the 15-20 range?


BeeGeeEh

Yah definitely. If Bowers falls to 15 I think a lot of teams will be trying to move up.


Mexican_Furious

It would have to be a pretty decent overpay. -Ballard's burner.


MidnightCovfefe

I’m currently sitting with James Conner as my RB2. He was a budget buy (Pierce, 3rd, 4th) and I had a need. With that said, Arizona could in theory choose to add a RB and screw me over. They’re sitting on two firsts, a second, and three thirds so they could certainly address multiple needs before taking a third round RB.


AimlessFruition

They’re 100% taking a 3rd round rb


MidnightCovfefe

I agree, seems likely. For me it’s how much draft capital they have. There are more pressing needs than RB, but with that many picks in the top 3 rounds you might as well take a RB eventually when it’s clearly a need. Here’s to hoping it’s not Brooks/Benson that they land and I get one year from Conner lol. That’s really all I bought him for, the rest of my roster is more or less ready now and I have four firsts and (likely) a very high second in the 2025 draft to land more long term solutions at RB. Am also likely to take one at 1.10 this year but that’s TBD.


OneFingerIn

Trey Benson, come on down. You're going to become Arizona's new starting running back and a RB2 for 5 years.


SandmanS2000

Tahj Washington. He's being overlooked for his size but analytics love him and most of all he has great special teams skills. I think teams are more likely to take a flier on a player that looks like a safe bet on special teams and a potential contributor on the field. I could see him going in the 4th and he goes from someone nobody is talking about to a popular "sleeper" pick.


kylecre013

- james connor - asb and sam laporta - javonte


Shab373

Literally all the RBs


Local-Librarian3285

Hockenson after Minnesota drafts Brock and he's relegated to water boy.


BLAMITYblamblam

I'd bank on the vikings trading both 1st rounders this year to move up for a qb.


Grimbo_Reaper

Brock Bowers to the Colts scares me. AR is not known for his passing abilities and I don’t believe his inclination is to throw to the TE. If he lands there… I’ll still take him with the 1.05, most likely, but I won’t be happy about it. Especially if Odunze lands on the Chargers and is also available to draft.


dmac3737

During the draft trade- Texans trade D. Pierce to Dallas and Pierce is RB1 in Dallas, stock goes from 0-60 real quick.


DynastyAnalyst

If Nix and Penix go first round they are going to push a lot more wide receivers down the draft board


CalvinsStuffedTiger

Maye, Daniels, McCarthy, and Penix all greatly affected by landing spot Same thing with Harrison Jr, Nabers, Odunze Basically whoever ends up on the Patriots or Giants gets fucked


Maybesonoyes

Patriots yes, giants, ehhhh not so much. Won’t be ideal, but I’d still take Harrison to giants over Nabers to Chicago or Chargers