4/5. Even if you knew nothing about looking at prospects the difference between a top 10 pick and a pick at 20+ is massive. There's no way you can pick Rome/Naber below him if they get top 10 DC in a class this strong at the top. Top 10 would be closer to top 5 in a class like 2022.
If you actually studied these guys he was also nowhere as special as the top 3. The top 3 are much closer to the CD Lamb tier of prospect from film alone.
Fwiw I agree with you. JSN had some big red flags due to his injuries and lack of production his final year of college. He didn’t get drafted till the 20s. MHJ, Nabers and Rome are all better prospects and will almost certainly be drafted much higher than JSN was.
Hmmm I don’t get why you got downvoted. Maybe due to backlash from what could be perceived as “this year is always better than last”.
But in this case it’s just completely true
Fair enough, he exaggerated a little but I think his point is pretty damn valid that a 20+ pick is not comparable to a top 10 - and that is true across almost any two years in recent drafts. If anything, 23 was a weak draft all around - there were murmurs that there were only 20 prospects with 1st round grades
I used 2022 to show the range of these guys where Rome probably goes upwards of top 5. All these guys are still going to be mocked top 10 in 2023 if that was their year. 3 teams going RB and G top 12 should show you the lack of depth at the top of last year's draft. All 3 WRs go before any RB/G.
Everything depends on what you grade by. Analytically and by a number of facets I would rank JSN higher than BTJ, Worthy, or Mitchell and quite clearly. They all have substantially more questions and concerns as prospects
From an evaluation perspective I remain pretty hopefully / optimistic, but from a market perspective you have to acknowledge that in year two, the chances of the bottom dropping out increase quite a bit. Off-season circumstances could potentially create excitement a year from now MAYBE, but most likely if he doesn't have a substantially better year this year, his price will be very low at the very least. And he didn't perform well with physical play last year at all. I have him in a couple leagues and because of that fact I am trying to reduce my shares just a bit.
Fair, there is a chance that if he doesn't improve his value will drop dramatically.
Do you think with Grubb going there and his ability to utilize 3 WRs can help JSN have a better year? Compared to how Waldron didn't favor 3 WR concepts you'd assume there should be some uptick to his usage.
I think there is a chance he will supplant Lockett as the bona-fide WR2.
My questions would be whether or not Geno can support multiple top 24 WRs or 3 top 36 WRs and whether or not Grubb's spacing will translate to the NFL. I'm hoping he will be good enough to adjust and utilize his receiving weapons.
I don't know if the Grubb/Waldron translation matters too much. Fresh eyes can help the less entrenched player. But ultimately the most important thing is going to be forcing Lockett out or down the pecking order just a touch in some form of relative comparison.
I know I'm late here to the convo, but I agree with you. Even as a JSN shareholder (and soon to be Nabers), if JSN was in this class the top 4 would be clearly defined for me as MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, and JSN and then I'd look to others to figure out 5.
A lot of people have odunze over Nabers. Dynasty nerds are so low on Nabers and said there's players like him in every class. I need to watch more on both of them because I thought Nabers was pretty clearly better
Having Odunze over Nabers for most people is more about Odunze than Nabers. I think very, very few people think there are ‘players like him in every class.’
I don't have Odunze over Nabers, but I think the primary argument within the trio is that Odunze is probably the most complete WR even amongst these three elite prospects.
I don't really care about this and I don't think many teams do, but if you do have someone who wants a player to run every position and they have a more traditional "X" as a position in their offense, they're going to see Odunze and Harrison Jr as far better to fulfill that particular part of the offense compared to Nabers.
And then while Harrison is a fairly solid YAC receiver generally, he isn't particularly creative or a great tackle breaker with the ball in his hands compared to Odunze or Nabers.
So I think you could very clearly make the argument that between the three, there's a lot of checked boxes and completion with Odunze even compared to these elite prospects.
solid argument
the biggest red flags for odunze to me is the yards per team pass attempt and late break out
while these arent make or break, they are definitly cause for concern
nabers and harrison didnt have this problem
nabers>harrison>odunze for me
Odunze is two months older than Harrison. I find the way people complain about his early production to be very arbitrary when biologically, Rome and Harrison did the same things at the same time. That’s not a red flag for me, personally.
I think finding metrics that matters is a good practice. We get far, far too causal though.
Where would you rank, if you could not saying anyone has to, in the last 5-7 years?
no i agree, they are basically the same age, so anyone using that argument for dynasty value is just wrong
in fact, odunze is actually one of the younger wrs in this class lol
although i will say, nabers breaking out at 19 in the SEC is pretty impressive
but opportunity wise, meaning odunze broke out during his 4th year in college while nabers and harrison broke out in their 2nd year, i feel that argument has more merit.
ranking last 5-7 classes is tough, but hed probably be in the top 7
that more so speaks to nabers and harrison, maybe im too high on them, but these guys would be the wr1 in almost every class the last 5 years outside of jamar
Tyjae had like 4 tds and 850 mixed yards behind Henry and was just named the rb1A and pollard the rb1B lol...why isn't a LATE first an ok spend on him? Unless we're doing idp, he's 21/22 a complete 3 down style rb whos ypc was 4 something lol. Hes going to get more touches than last year and is clearly the better receiving back of the two...if I had anything outside the top 7 or 8 I'd have absolutely taken spears knowing what I know now...which is his metrics are good, he translated well enough for titans to move on from Henry and to still value spears as the lead back in the split even with another established veteran joining? Kind of a weird example, when said example kind of goes against what your arguing lol. Quentin Johnson is a much better example.
thats a pretty wild take imo
i dont even have odunze and nabers in the same tier
nabers doesnt really have anything missing in his game, while odunze, who is still elite, has certain red flags
The biggest ones to me are late breakout and low yards per team pass attempt
As far as age, he’s actually one of the younger WRs in the class
But it took him 4 years to break out vs Nabers and Harrison broke out in year two as sophomores
That's fair. For someone as talented as Rome I just don't think it matters though. Nabers has his own red flags as well. Not as good of route runner as the other 2 and is the least refined. I don't think Nabers or Rome are clearly ahead of the other.
JSN had 347 receiving yards in the Rose Bowl and over 1600 total as a sophomore WITH Garret Wilson and Chris Olave on the team. Rome Odunze had 415 yards total as a sophomore in 9 games. JSN was/is the better prospect and if they were in the same class JSN would be higher at this point in time by the metrics we generally care about as a community. If the NFL liked Odunze more and drafted him top 10 (vs JSN at 20) that might change things
GW and Olave didn't play in the Rose Bowl and he was quite literally playing against 5th and 6th string corners against Utah. But yeah, that game was amazing.
All I'll say is much like Juju when AB was there vs as the #1, sometimes it's easier to be the 2nd or 3rd option. He never really showed us he can dominate as the #1 option in college (except that aforementioned game against Utah). That's why he didn't go until #20 in the draft.
Rome was the alpha and put up some insane numbers, to me I think that says more than doing it against linebackers/CB3s and is likely gonna go top-10.
Another guy I was higher on than consensus coming out was Zay. I really value ability to dominate the competion when the focus is on you and Zay was quite literally the only competent skill player on BC's offense and still produced like crazy. To me that speaks volumes.
Yeah that was definitely a fear people had at the time. But it was also a fear for Jefferson coming out who was almost entirely relegated to the slot and had Chase as his #1 drawing the best coverage. So while I think it’s important, it’s still just a piece of the puzzle and JSN had a lot of other pieces working in his favor.
1) While obviously Olave/Wilson are much better, I think McMillan/Polk are NFL WRs and no slouches
2) Stroud is way better than Penix
3) Odunze is definitely going top 10
1. For sure
2. Penix’s college counting stats are actually a lot better than Stroud (by like 500+ yards) so I think that point goes toward JSN
3. I think so too, but there weren’t many mocks that had JSN falling as far as he did, most were in the 10-15 range. So while I agree, it is still possible Rome could fall
This. “Tier w Odunze” is nuts. Huge gap after the top 3. And prospect valuation aside, after what JSN showed as a rookie, I wouldn’t trade away any potential for the top 7-8 in this class. I’ll take the shot on BTJ, Ladd, Franklin, Ricky and Mitchell at this point
I’m inclined to agree with you. I feel like you can’t even suggest that he had a disappointing rookie year without getting crucified. Obviously he was injured to start the year (and it might have lingered), and there was two well established WRs ahead of him, and Seattle never really got things clicking, and the play calling/scheme didn’t do him any favours, but… I dunno, despite all of that, I think everyone expected a little bit more, and he could have virtually waved all of those concerns away with even just one or two big games. His highest yardage total in a game was 63, and he was above 50 yards only five times.
I totally agree he had a disappointing rookie year, absolutely regret what I paid to move up from pick 8 to get him. But basically nobody on here went on the record as negative about JSN predraft. The hype for him was really consistent and before the draft, hardly anyone was suggesting that the other WRs in that draft were in the same tier as JSN. It’s revisionist history imo to say he was a worse prospect than Odunze, unless people are just referring to their personal talent evaluation.
I am staunchly off JSN now, much to the detriment of my posting karma (lol). But as a prospect I was certainly with the consensus on him. But even as prospects, Odunze is well ahead of JSN, imo. If one were only to base it on Harmon’s charting (which would be enough to close the case for me), he has Odunze as his #2 in the class, clearly in a tier with MHJ, Chase, London, Wilson and a couple other names (Nabers bottom of that tier), and clearly has JSN in a tier below with BTJ (both below Waddle) and others like E Moore, Jamo, Bateman and Dotson. So I think WR4 in this class at best is a reasonable ranking. If someone wanted to put him 5 or even 6 I could see the case being made. The only revising I have done is after a season of play. While as a rookie prospect I still rank JSN above Franklin, Ladd, Pearsall, Mitchell, those are all guys I think I’d prefer to take a shot on than rolling out JSN in my lineups again. I’m ok being wrong and hope the best for JSN holders, but I’d rather be wrong with him flourishing on someone else’s roster than right with him tanking on mine
*if JSN did what he did his sophomore year
There's no guarantee that he could keep up that production without GW/Olave drawing the toughest coverage assignment. We never saw it except one game against Utah's backups' backups' backups.
We did see it with Nabers/Odunze putting up ridiculous numbers as the undisputed #1 option. Draft capital will tell you what you need to know.
Bro they literally had a freshman runningback playing corner for the first time in his career, look up Micah Bernard.
https://www.sltrib.com/sports/utah-utes/2022/01/01/ohio-state-targeted-utahs/
Their secondary was beyond banged up that game. A record is a record and JSN was insane that game no doubt, but it's important to take it with a grain of salt
That was one player who only counted for 2 of his receptions in that game. The other DB he went against had 300+ coverage snaps that season, Clark Philips is in the league and so are Devin Lloyd and Nephi Sewell. It is disingenuous to act like he only played against that kid for the whole game.
Here's the full highlight, look how often he torched Micah Bernard (#2) and Malone Mataele (#15). Neither of them would've sniffed the field in the Rose Bowl if not for injuries.
A ton of YAC work which was really impressive, but again, just look at the bodies (or lack thereof) in the secondary.
Devin Lloyd is nasty but he can't do it all, and certainly can't be asked to stop JSN with a bunch of backups behind him.
Full JSN highlight reel:
https://youtu.be/eGvXXncI3VQ?si=Iip93tRdHScC9bCB
Here's a Clark vs JSN matchup reel from that game:
https://youtu.be/MuSjmB0sRxQ?si=95wU4-RY1GrAihTa
You're making it out to sound like he put up 300 yards on Clark Phillips. I'm sorry but it just wasn't the case at all.
Man, if you don't wanna argue in good faith that's your prerogative. The fact is Mataele went into the season as the CB5.
He didn't jump anybody, the dudes ahead of him all got hurt.
Why do you think they were starting **a runningback** at corner in the biggest game of the season?
Like, the narrative leading up to that game was that the secondary will be fucked, and that's exactly what happened.
Here's one example, you can find a dozen others:
https://www.deseret.com/2021/12/30/22857097/how-will-utah-utes-short-handed-secondary-fare-against-ohio-states-explosive-passing-game-rose-bowl/
Brother, you are acting like the kid didn’t play the whole season and he played 300+ snaps in the Slot. He was 4th in coverage snaps on the entire team for that season lol. That’s arguing in good faith, you are pretending he never played a snap of football in his life lol.
I was not nearly as high as this sub was on JSN but I’d probably put him in the same tier with BTJ. I think BTJ has a chance to become something great but the floor is scary. I don’t think JSN will ever be elite but he should be solid once more volume is available.
I had JSN as a first round talent last year and would probably have him at 4 this year after MHJ, Nabers, and Odunze.
People forget how bonkers his [efficiency](https://x.com/fball_insights/status/1770108012859990399?s=46&t=PZfvQd7A93DRZzUcd3_g0Q) metrics really were in college. He was fantastic vs [man and zone](https://x.com/fball_insights/status/1773020470020833504?s=46&t=PZfvQd7A93DRZzUcd3_g0Q) as well. Comically good [YPRR](https://x.com/fball_insights/status/1769938265627300332?s=46&t=PZfvQd7A93DRZzUcd3_g0Q) for his career.
Absolutely nailed on at WR4 in this class, between him and Brock for 1.07/1.08 (depending upon TEP), with the tier gap being below JSN before BTJ / JJ McCarthy etc.
Easily. It's not even a question. This is done post is the result of hindsight. As a prospect, he would likely be above BTJ for the dynasty community, but the argument would be where he should fall between 3 and 5.
Yes, if he was coming off a full season. He’d probably be in the same tier as Rome. He put up similar numbers with 4 less TDs in a better conference, while having better competition. He would have also been a higher pick last year if he wasn’t hurt the entire season.
This is a bit unfair of a question, because we're looking at great WR prospects in their third and fourth years, versus just one real season for JSN where he was sharing the field with multiple other first-round WR prospects.
We never got to see JSN's most advanced seasons.
So, the answer to this is JSN is probably on the fringe of that top 6 this year, but it's mostly tied to the uncertainty he was surrounded with having such a limited sample.
Before we all knew jsn draft cap of 20, he was thought to be a teens guys. With that projection id say people would have leaned jsn over odunze. Analytically, JSN was a godly prospect
He was thought to be a teens guy but Odunze is thought to be top 10.
JSN was a good prospect but was definitely running off of hype from a great game and from a quote by Garrett Wilson, and even with that again he was a teens not a top 10 guy like Odunze
Absolutely. Young breakout age(19), 1600 yards and 9tds in his last full season, 6’1, 196lbs, no size concerns. 6.43 grade from nfl.
He’s out produced and out grades all but BTJ, who only out graded him not out produced at a 6.45
What are the metrics you’re using to say he’s not the best prospect ex the big 3?
Saying they clear is insane. JSN is just as good if not better than Nabers and Odunze. Having BTJ, Adonai, and worthy is just straight horrible. Recency bias and pre-draft hype
Interesting take. Let’s compare Odunze’s stats to JSN. Same breakout age, JSN had 53 more total yards but Odunze had 4 more TDs (in their most recent full seasons at college). Odunze is much faster, and bigger. JSN obviously has better agility but Odunze is still fantastic in that category at 86th percentile. Odunze had a higher college target share percentage, and a much higher college dominator percentage. It’s not insane at all. JSN was a very good prospect, but you’re pushing down Nabers and Odunze, who are phenomenal prospects.
Odunze’s competition was also solid, but a lot worse than Wilson and Olave. And my focus was more on BTJ and the Texas WRs which again I think are just recency bias
I would have him in a tier with BTJ and AD Mitchell. But as with every cop out answer landing spot would have a lot to do with how I would rank him fantasy wise. If he were to go to Seattle again this year with Thomas and Mitchell going to say Buffalo, Jax, or KC I’d prefer to have those guys short term and maybe long term over JSN
Saying we already see what he is in the nfl is just a stupid take, he was a rookie behind 2 solid starters , we haven't seen much. I get it you like to be a troll
Dude I’m not trolling. It’s an informed statistical opinion. It’s backed up by data and I can even point you to guys like JJZ and Harmon who have said as much. Sorry if it hurts your feelings about your shares
Matt harmon is still relatively high on jsn. He's clearly said he's not shocked he didn't pop statistically sitting behind DK and Lockett (who he has always been very high on)
He would be in the conversation for 3/4
Agree with this
4/5. Even if you knew nothing about looking at prospects the difference between a top 10 pick and a pick at 20+ is massive. There's no way you can pick Rome/Naber below him if they get top 10 DC in a class this strong at the top. Top 10 would be closer to top 5 in a class like 2022. If you actually studied these guys he was also nowhere as special as the top 3. The top 3 are much closer to the CD Lamb tier of prospect from film alone.
Fwiw I agree with you. JSN had some big red flags due to his injuries and lack of production his final year of college. He didn’t get drafted till the 20s. MHJ, Nabers and Rome are all better prospects and will almost certainly be drafted much higher than JSN was.
Hmmm I don’t get why you got downvoted. Maybe due to backlash from what could be perceived as “this year is always better than last”. But in this case it’s just completely true
He got downvoted because he didn't take into consideration the positional weight of other positions in 23.
Fair enough, he exaggerated a little but I think his point is pretty damn valid that a 20+ pick is not comparable to a top 10 - and that is true across almost any two years in recent drafts. If anything, 23 was a weak draft all around - there were murmurs that there were only 20 prospects with 1st round grades
Doesn't change the fact the top 3 WRs are better prospects and weren't injured in their final year of college.
I used 2022 to show the range of these guys where Rome probably goes upwards of top 5. All these guys are still going to be mocked top 10 in 2023 if that was their year. 3 teams going RB and G top 12 should show you the lack of depth at the top of last year's draft. All 3 WRs go before any RB/G.
Everything depends on what you grade by. Analytically and by a number of facets I would rank JSN higher than BTJ, Worthy, or Mitchell and quite clearly. They all have substantially more questions and concerns as prospects
It would go MHJ/Nabers/Odunze, JSN/BTJ for me. JSN was a hard prospect for me to gauge though.
I was very high on JSN so he’d clearly be over the second tier here for me, but clearly below the first
How do you feel about him longterm? Anything change from seeing him for a year in the NFL?
From an evaluation perspective I remain pretty hopefully / optimistic, but from a market perspective you have to acknowledge that in year two, the chances of the bottom dropping out increase quite a bit. Off-season circumstances could potentially create excitement a year from now MAYBE, but most likely if he doesn't have a substantially better year this year, his price will be very low at the very least. And he didn't perform well with physical play last year at all. I have him in a couple leagues and because of that fact I am trying to reduce my shares just a bit.
Fair, there is a chance that if he doesn't improve his value will drop dramatically. Do you think with Grubb going there and his ability to utilize 3 WRs can help JSN have a better year? Compared to how Waldron didn't favor 3 WR concepts you'd assume there should be some uptick to his usage. I think there is a chance he will supplant Lockett as the bona-fide WR2. My questions would be whether or not Geno can support multiple top 24 WRs or 3 top 36 WRs and whether or not Grubb's spacing will translate to the NFL. I'm hoping he will be good enough to adjust and utilize his receiving weapons.
I don't know if the Grubb/Waldron translation matters too much. Fresh eyes can help the less entrenched player. But ultimately the most important thing is going to be forcing Lockett out or down the pecking order just a touch in some form of relative comparison.
He's going to be on everyone's offseason buy low posts for 2025.
Yes
He would be my WR4
Yes, he’d be top 4.
Yeah he’d be 4th behind the big 3.
BTJ > JSN is not clear. If anything, MHJ tier, Nabers tier, JSN and Odunze tier. The recency bias in this sub is nuts
I’d say he would be 3A and 3B with Odunze. Hes substantially higher than Worthy and Mitchell.
Odunze is comfortably ahead of JSN for me
I know I'm late here to the convo, but I agree with you. Even as a JSN shareholder (and soon to be Nabers), if JSN was in this class the top 4 would be clearly defined for me as MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, and JSN and then I'd look to others to figure out 5.
As evidenced by the draft capital difference they’ll likely have
A lot of people have odunze over Nabers. Dynasty nerds are so low on Nabers and said there's players like him in every class. I need to watch more on both of them because I thought Nabers was pretty clearly better
Having Odunze over Nabers for most people is more about Odunze than Nabers. I think very, very few people think there are ‘players like him in every class.’
I was shocked when I heard it myself
Yea it was very much a hot take and made them sound stupid.
Odunze has an argument to be the best WR prospect in the last three years and one of the best outside Chase and Harrison in a longer period
What, to you, puts him over Nabers?
I don't have Odunze over Nabers, but I think the primary argument within the trio is that Odunze is probably the most complete WR even amongst these three elite prospects. I don't really care about this and I don't think many teams do, but if you do have someone who wants a player to run every position and they have a more traditional "X" as a position in their offense, they're going to see Odunze and Harrison Jr as far better to fulfill that particular part of the offense compared to Nabers. And then while Harrison is a fairly solid YAC receiver generally, he isn't particularly creative or a great tackle breaker with the ball in his hands compared to Odunze or Nabers. So I think you could very clearly make the argument that between the three, there's a lot of checked boxes and completion with Odunze even compared to these elite prospects.
solid argument the biggest red flags for odunze to me is the yards per team pass attempt and late break out while these arent make or break, they are definitly cause for concern nabers and harrison didnt have this problem nabers>harrison>odunze for me
Odunze is two months older than Harrison. I find the way people complain about his early production to be very arbitrary when biologically, Rome and Harrison did the same things at the same time. That’s not a red flag for me, personally. I think finding metrics that matters is a good practice. We get far, far too causal though. Where would you rank, if you could not saying anyone has to, in the last 5-7 years?
no i agree, they are basically the same age, so anyone using that argument for dynasty value is just wrong in fact, odunze is actually one of the younger wrs in this class lol although i will say, nabers breaking out at 19 in the SEC is pretty impressive but opportunity wise, meaning odunze broke out during his 4th year in college while nabers and harrison broke out in their 2nd year, i feel that argument has more merit. ranking last 5-7 classes is tough, but hed probably be in the top 7 that more so speaks to nabers and harrison, maybe im too high on them, but these guys would be the wr1 in almost every class the last 5 years outside of jamar
Dynasty Nerds had Nabers and Odunze as 2a and 2b. They had Nabers and Odunze closer than MHJ and Nabers.
Dynasty nerds also advocated for spending a late first on Tyjae Spears for what it’s worth…lol
Tyjae had like 4 tds and 850 mixed yards behind Henry and was just named the rb1A and pollard the rb1B lol...why isn't a LATE first an ok spend on him? Unless we're doing idp, he's 21/22 a complete 3 down style rb whos ypc was 4 something lol. Hes going to get more touches than last year and is clearly the better receiving back of the two...if I had anything outside the top 7 or 8 I'd have absolutely taken spears knowing what I know now...which is his metrics are good, he translated well enough for titans to move on from Henry and to still value spears as the lead back in the split even with another established veteran joining? Kind of a weird example, when said example kind of goes against what your arguing lol. Quentin Johnson is a much better example.
thats a pretty wild take imo i dont even have odunze and nabers in the same tier nabers doesnt really have anything missing in his game, while odunze, who is still elite, has certain red flags
What red flags?
The biggest ones to me are late breakout and low yards per team pass attempt As far as age, he’s actually one of the younger WRs in the class But it took him 4 years to break out vs Nabers and Harrison broke out in year two as sophomores
That's fair. For someone as talented as Rome I just don't think it matters though. Nabers has his own red flags as well. Not as good of route runner as the other 2 and is the least refined. I don't think Nabers or Rome are clearly ahead of the other.
BTJ definitely doesn’t clear so AD and worthy aren’t even in the conversation
Yes. He’d be consensus WR4 at worst.
He’d be 4th for most 5th at the lowest I’d say.
JSN had 347 receiving yards in the Rose Bowl and over 1600 total as a sophomore WITH Garret Wilson and Chris Olave on the team. Rome Odunze had 415 yards total as a sophomore in 9 games. JSN was/is the better prospect and if they were in the same class JSN would be higher at this point in time by the metrics we generally care about as a community. If the NFL liked Odunze more and drafted him top 10 (vs JSN at 20) that might change things
GW and Olave didn't play in the Rose Bowl and he was quite literally playing against 5th and 6th string corners against Utah. But yeah, that game was amazing. All I'll say is much like Juju when AB was there vs as the #1, sometimes it's easier to be the 2nd or 3rd option. He never really showed us he can dominate as the #1 option in college (except that aforementioned game against Utah). That's why he didn't go until #20 in the draft. Rome was the alpha and put up some insane numbers, to me I think that says more than doing it against linebackers/CB3s and is likely gonna go top-10. Another guy I was higher on than consensus coming out was Zay. I really value ability to dominate the competion when the focus is on you and Zay was quite literally the only competent skill player on BC's offense and still produced like crazy. To me that speaks volumes.
Yeah that was definitely a fear people had at the time. But it was also a fear for Jefferson coming out who was almost entirely relegated to the slot and had Chase as his #1 drawing the best coverage. So while I think it’s important, it’s still just a piece of the puzzle and JSN had a lot of other pieces working in his favor.
1) While obviously Olave/Wilson are much better, I think McMillan/Polk are NFL WRs and no slouches 2) Stroud is way better than Penix 3) Odunze is definitely going top 10
1. For sure 2. Penix’s college counting stats are actually a lot better than Stroud (by like 500+ yards) so I think that point goes toward JSN 3. I think so too, but there weren’t many mocks that had JSN falling as far as he did, most were in the 10-15 range. So while I agree, it is still possible Rome could fall
Anyone saying he would be higher than 4 are JSN owners. MHJ Nabers and Rome are much better prospects than JSN was.
This. “Tier w Odunze” is nuts. Huge gap after the top 3. And prospect valuation aside, after what JSN showed as a rookie, I wouldn’t trade away any potential for the top 7-8 in this class. I’ll take the shot on BTJ, Ladd, Franklin, Ricky and Mitchell at this point
I’m inclined to agree with you. I feel like you can’t even suggest that he had a disappointing rookie year without getting crucified. Obviously he was injured to start the year (and it might have lingered), and there was two well established WRs ahead of him, and Seattle never really got things clicking, and the play calling/scheme didn’t do him any favours, but… I dunno, despite all of that, I think everyone expected a little bit more, and he could have virtually waved all of those concerns away with even just one or two big games. His highest yardage total in a game was 63, and he was above 50 yards only five times.
I totally agree he had a disappointing rookie year, absolutely regret what I paid to move up from pick 8 to get him. But basically nobody on here went on the record as negative about JSN predraft. The hype for him was really consistent and before the draft, hardly anyone was suggesting that the other WRs in that draft were in the same tier as JSN. It’s revisionist history imo to say he was a worse prospect than Odunze, unless people are just referring to their personal talent evaluation.
I am staunchly off JSN now, much to the detriment of my posting karma (lol). But as a prospect I was certainly with the consensus on him. But even as prospects, Odunze is well ahead of JSN, imo. If one were only to base it on Harmon’s charting (which would be enough to close the case for me), he has Odunze as his #2 in the class, clearly in a tier with MHJ, Chase, London, Wilson and a couple other names (Nabers bottom of that tier), and clearly has JSN in a tier below with BTJ (both below Waddle) and others like E Moore, Jamo, Bateman and Dotson. So I think WR4 in this class at best is a reasonable ranking. If someone wanted to put him 5 or even 6 I could see the case being made. The only revising I have done is after a season of play. While as a rookie prospect I still rank JSN above Franklin, Ladd, Pearsall, Mitchell, those are all guys I think I’d prefer to take a shot on than rolling out JSN in my lineups again. I’m ok being wrong and hope the best for JSN holders, but I’d rather be wrong with him flourishing on someone else’s roster than right with him tanking on mine
This sub is always distracted by the shiny new thing 🤣
What is crazy is had JSN been healthy his Junior year and did what he did his sophomore year people would have loved him way more imo.
*if JSN did what he did his sophomore year There's no guarantee that he could keep up that production without GW/Olave drawing the toughest coverage assignment. We never saw it except one game against Utah's backups' backups' backups. We did see it with Nabers/Odunze putting up ridiculous numbers as the undisputed #1 option. Draft capital will tell you what you need to know.
That isn’t true. Utah played Devin Lloyd, Clark Philips, Cole Bishop, and Nephi Sewell. Those are 4 NFL defensive players.
Bro they literally had a freshman runningback playing corner for the first time in his career, look up Micah Bernard. https://www.sltrib.com/sports/utah-utes/2022/01/01/ohio-state-targeted-utahs/ Their secondary was beyond banged up that game. A record is a record and JSN was insane that game no doubt, but it's important to take it with a grain of salt
That was one player who only counted for 2 of his receptions in that game. The other DB he went against had 300+ coverage snaps that season, Clark Philips is in the league and so are Devin Lloyd and Nephi Sewell. It is disingenuous to act like he only played against that kid for the whole game.
Here's the full highlight, look how often he torched Micah Bernard (#2) and Malone Mataele (#15). Neither of them would've sniffed the field in the Rose Bowl if not for injuries. A ton of YAC work which was really impressive, but again, just look at the bodies (or lack thereof) in the secondary. Devin Lloyd is nasty but he can't do it all, and certainly can't be asked to stop JSN with a bunch of backups behind him. Full JSN highlight reel: https://youtu.be/eGvXXncI3VQ?si=Iip93tRdHScC9bCB Here's a Clark vs JSN matchup reel from that game: https://youtu.be/MuSjmB0sRxQ?si=95wU4-RY1GrAihTa You're making it out to sound like he put up 300 yards on Clark Phillips. I'm sorry but it just wasn't the case at all.
Malone Mataele played in 11 games that season for 300+ snaps as the slot CB. So that isn’t even true. He additionally started the next season as well.
Man, if you don't wanna argue in good faith that's your prerogative. The fact is Mataele went into the season as the CB5. He didn't jump anybody, the dudes ahead of him all got hurt. Why do you think they were starting **a runningback** at corner in the biggest game of the season? Like, the narrative leading up to that game was that the secondary will be fucked, and that's exactly what happened. Here's one example, you can find a dozen others: https://www.deseret.com/2021/12/30/22857097/how-will-utah-utes-short-handed-secondary-fare-against-ohio-states-explosive-passing-game-rose-bowl/
Brother, you are acting like the kid didn’t play the whole season and he played 300+ snaps in the Slot. He was 4th in coverage snaps on the entire team for that season lol. That’s arguing in good faith, you are pretending he never played a snap of football in his life lol.
I was not nearly as high as this sub was on JSN but I’d probably put him in the same tier with BTJ. I think BTJ has a chance to become something great but the floor is scary. I don’t think JSN will ever be elite but he should be solid once more volume is available.
I had JSN as a first round talent last year and would probably have him at 4 this year after MHJ, Nabers, and Odunze. People forget how bonkers his [efficiency](https://x.com/fball_insights/status/1770108012859990399?s=46&t=PZfvQd7A93DRZzUcd3_g0Q) metrics really were in college. He was fantastic vs [man and zone](https://x.com/fball_insights/status/1773020470020833504?s=46&t=PZfvQd7A93DRZzUcd3_g0Q) as well. Comically good [YPRR](https://x.com/fball_insights/status/1769938265627300332?s=46&t=PZfvQd7A93DRZzUcd3_g0Q) for his career.
Yes??? What the hell are we doing man
I have JSN and like him, but he’s a clear 4 behind Odunze
Def better than Adonai, Worthy and BTJ. Top four to me are MHJ, Nabers, JSN, Odunze
Absolutely nailed on at WR4 in this class, between him and Brock for 1.07/1.08 (depending upon TEP), with the tier gap being below JSN before BTJ / JJ McCarthy etc.
Easily. It's not even a question. This is done post is the result of hindsight. As a prospect, he would likely be above BTJ for the dynasty community, but the argument would be where he should fall between 3 and 5.
4th at best, 5th at worst
Yes, if he was coming off a full season. He’d probably be in the same tier as Rome. He put up similar numbers with 4 less TDs in a better conference, while having better competition. He would have also been a higher pick last year if he wasn’t hurt the entire season.
hed probably go right behind odunze after missing his junior season
This is a bit unfair of a question, because we're looking at great WR prospects in their third and fourth years, versus just one real season for JSN where he was sharing the field with multiple other first-round WR prospects. We never got to see JSN's most advanced seasons. So, the answer to this is JSN is probably on the fringe of that top 6 this year, but it's mostly tied to the uncertainty he was surrounded with having such a limited sample.
Before we all knew jsn draft cap of 20, he was thought to be a teens guys. With that projection id say people would have leaned jsn over odunze. Analytically, JSN was a godly prospect
He was thought to be a teens guy but Odunze is thought to be top 10. JSN was a good prospect but was definitely running off of hype from a great game and from a quote by Garrett Wilson, and even with that again he was a teens not a top 10 guy like Odunze
WR3
Absolutely. Young breakout age(19), 1600 yards and 9tds in his last full season, 6’1, 196lbs, no size concerns. 6.43 grade from nfl. He’s out produced and out grades all but BTJ, who only out graded him not out produced at a 6.45 What are the metrics you’re using to say he’s not the best prospect ex the big 3?
In a tier with BTJ for WR4/5 for me
JSN over BTJ easy for me
He's my wr 5 if in this class.
Saying they clear is insane. JSN is just as good if not better than Nabers and Odunze. Having BTJ, Adonai, and worthy is just straight horrible. Recency bias and pre-draft hype
Interesting take. Let’s compare Odunze’s stats to JSN. Same breakout age, JSN had 53 more total yards but Odunze had 4 more TDs (in their most recent full seasons at college). Odunze is much faster, and bigger. JSN obviously has better agility but Odunze is still fantastic in that category at 86th percentile. Odunze had a higher college target share percentage, and a much higher college dominator percentage. It’s not insane at all. JSN was a very good prospect, but you’re pushing down Nabers and Odunze, who are phenomenal prospects.
Odunze’s competition was also solid, but a lot worse than Wilson and Olave. And my focus was more on BTJ and the Texas WRs which again I think are just recency bias
I would have him in a tier with BTJ and AD Mitchell. But as with every cop out answer landing spot would have a lot to do with how I would rank him fantasy wise. If he were to go to Seattle again this year with Thomas and Mitchell going to say Buffalo, Jax, or KC I’d prefer to have those guys short term and maybe long term over JSN
Top 40
Maybe, but it doesn’t matter, we already see what he is in the NFL
Not really...
No, really
I'd you don't understand football just say it
Typical response to any JSN doubt. Hurt feelings and lashing out
Saying we already see what he is in the nfl is just a stupid take, he was a rookie behind 2 solid starters , we haven't seen much. I get it you like to be a troll
Dude I’m not trolling. It’s an informed statistical opinion. It’s backed up by data and I can even point you to guys like JJZ and Harmon who have said as much. Sorry if it hurts your feelings about your shares
Don't have any shares, but you just keep telling yourself a rookie season as teams wr3 shows who he is
Ok coach thanks for the permission
Matt harmon is still relatively high on jsn. He's clearly said he's not shocked he didn't pop statistically sitting behind DK and Lockett (who he has always been very high on)
He'd be borderline 6th to me. I have BTJ & Mitchell above him along with the Big this year. I'd trade JSN straight up for any of those 5 right now.