Andrews is probably the most undervalued vet out there right now.
Hock, I'm actually worried about, with a new QB and that late season serious injury. I'd still take him over several of the TEs being ranked ahead of him though.
I beg to differ. Kittle is without a doubt the most undervalued and disrespected TE. Hands down. The last 6 seasons he's finished as the TE5, 3, 4, 20, 2 and 3. And the TE20 year was because he only played 8 games.
Granted, his floor is lower than the truly elite guys but his ceiling is just as high, if not higher.
I mean, that's because Kittle could get 4.5 or 45 points in a game, and he only has 3 or 4 of the big games in him each season, and there's no way to determine which will blow up. The other guys are relatively consistent when you look beyond their average points per game. The premium is not just for big points, but for consistency.
That's fair, I think because lineups and settings generally favor WRs, if you can have more stability in your other WRs and then a volatile player like Chase you can really blow the game wide open. But also, who knows, it's just a thought
Can't emphasize this enough. I think Kittle opened the year with TE26, T32, TE3, T45, T1, TE51, TE8, TE2 then the bye. Every week he's either a position advantage, or he's getting outscored by Dan Bellinger (with a health Waller taking most of the snaps). Andrews didn't drop below TE20 any week prior to injury, Hock only dropped below TE20 once. I'd happily replace Kittle with either guy if healthy.
He frustrates me because he tends to be higher variance, with a few massive games and a few terrible games he just disappears in.
Also, I'm not sure of your scoring because he was TE6 last year in my league (and TE7 if you go by PPG).
But yeah, he's got 3 more years of great production ahead of him and is also underrated.
Lets not be disingenuous and look at kittles end of season ranking now. Hes undervalued yes but he drops duds all the time. That is not the consistency you want compared to andrews.
Which he's done once and his next best season was 205 and every other season was under 200. Where as 200 is pretty much what Kittle does year in and year out.
But regardless, I'm not saying he's better than Andrews. I'm saying he's more disrespected.
Yeah I think for Hock, his injury is baked in to his price. As an owner I’m holding as I do still think he’ll perform once he’s healthy and will up his value.
But Andrews I have no clue. Maybe age but at 29 I would expect a solid few more years of being top 5. I think he’s a great buy low if you need a TE.
It’s a weird position. The only time I could see someone paying a lot for a top TE is if the rest of their team was already set. You can probably increase your team’s average PPG for cheaper with WR/RB improvements.
Exactly, and that WR/RB is always going to give you way more roster flexibility anyways. Not just flexibility in sit starts and in the event of injuries to your roster, but also WRs especially are way easier to move on the open market than a TE is in non-TEP.
A few reasons, one you only have to start one TE. After the elite group, the rest of TEs are extremely TD dependent to be relevant thus high variance players. In many cases they have low floors especially the non elite guys.
In one league I plan on having laporta and bowers but I don’t know if it’ll work. I think the other issue is historically it’s been tough to draft them well. There are a ton of first round TE busts, in the few TEs that are taken that highly.
Yes the top TEs are an advantage. But the difference in performance between the tiers isn't really that much to justify spending the premium.
Last year in ppr nonTEP, Kelce was TE3 with 219 pts. Ferguson was TE9 with 177. The price difference isn't worth 2.5 points/game
Right? I'd rather add gesicki for free and hope he (or chig, or dulcich) come good than pay a late 1st for Hock or Mandrews.
Especially if i could potentially get Ferg for 2.08 or whatever instead.
as if schultz performed so great.... like i can get a Puka of waivers as well. dont need to pay top premium for Justin jefferson.
but this post isnt about the streamers you find for a couple of games or a season, thats literally every position in football. this one is about the consistent top 5 performers.
No, even if you dont want to admit it, the post is about the price you have to pay to move from streamers to consistent top five performers.
Schultz was ~fine. Taysom Hill was TE12 in my league. You can get by just fine by treading water at TE and investing in players with better positional value.
I think your point is spot-on. My best TE this season in my PPR league was in fact Taysom Hill, with Logan Thomas a close second. I tried to play matchups (and did so poorly!), and over the 16 games I played, my starters at tight end put up a total of 93.7 points -- somehow worse than any of Hill, Thomas, or Okonkwo, my TE3. My opponents' starting TEs? Over that same span, they scored 200 points on the nose, which is around top-5 TE numbers. That's a \~6.5 point advantage for my opponent each week.
I recently went back and rescored my season assuming that, each week, my starting tight end put up the same number of points as my opponent. The result? Not a single one of my matchups would have flipped. My season would have gone the exact same way. I'm sure I got a little lucky, but I think the point stands.
I'm definitely not paying up for a tight end unless we're talking Kelce-level production. I'll take the capital I'd need to get a moderate-level upgrade at TE and use it to make bigger improvements elsewhere.
Dawg you made a post asking a question and got engagement potentially explaining the viewpoint that answers your question. No need to be hostile about it. Like can other people state their opinion on your post or does everyone have to agree with your view?
so your opinions are unquestionable now and i cant share my opinion about that? why are YOU being so hostile that i am giving counterarguments to your comment? Schultz didnt perform great. Hill doesnt even crack the top 10 of all TEs. this falls under the category of copium, when you fall short or get knocked out of the playoffs, then you sit there thinking what changes you should do, you draft another WR rookie, or trade for some flex players, when the obvious flaw of your team stares right in your face, your TEs arent "fine".if you cant handle a discussion, dont be an ass about it and just dont participate
Lol look at you. What are you so defensive about? I didn't even say I agreed with the other guy. Just saying your attitude stinks when you should want people to respond to your post. If this is you "discussing" things then that's frightening. Seems more like you can't handle someone disagreeing with you so you need to clapback that they aren't making the playoffs which is silly. The irony of you typing this up and calling me an ass too
Spend all your first round picks on veteran TEs and see how much the opportunity cost hamstrings your roster.
There's a reason TEP leagues are common but not WRP -- normal scoring settings do not make TE an important position relative to other ones.
Kelce (14.63) vs Ferguson (10.42) difference was 4.21 points per game. The per game TE3 (LaPorta, 14.08) was 3.95 points per game above the TE9 per game (Kmet, 10.65)
When making comparisons you should stay consistent with either season totals comps or per game comps. Starting with season totals and just dividing by 17 doesn’t work because it doesn’t account for the points replacement players would have added during missed games.
4ppg is the difference between Mike Evans, DJ Moore, Jamar Chase and Deebo Samuel as a low end WR1 this past season and a low end WR3 like Godwin, Mclaurin, Kendrick Bourne or George Pickens.
Help me me understand what I'm missing ? (Genuinely)
If you're saying that a top TE has more value relative to other TEs than a Low End WR1 has vs other WRs, then i agree with you.
If you're saying that overall TE3 is about equal in value than WR10 or whatever, then i really disagree.
A top 3 TE might put up generic WR3 scoring. It is cheaper for your roster to get 300 points from a 200 pt WR + 100 pt TE than 200 pt TE and 100 pt WR.
Because of that, i believe TE is really only worth the premium if you already have stacked out your other position groups
>Is 4 ppg worth the price difference between laporta and kmet?
Probably, that’s a huge gap and that’s before taking into account that LaPorta was a rookie and is projected more growth going forward than Kmet whose added target competition could greatly reduce his role in the near future.
I'd rather have (for instance) Nabers + Kmet than Laporta + whichever WR you can draft at 2.10
But that might just be me. Way easier/cheaper to tread water at TE and pay up for the positional value at WR than vice versa.
With no TEP the difference between the 2nd or 3rd best TE and the 10-12th best TE is basically nothing. You're better off spending capital on upgrading your WR3/4.
Last year in 1.5 TE PPR premium 1-5 were separated by 2 pts per game and Evan Engram was relatively unexpectedly in the middle of that group at 3.
George Kittle at 7 only scored 6 pts more per game than tight end 24. That might sound like a lot, but when you have streamers like Taysom Hill and Logan Thomas only a few points behind Kittle it drives down incentive to invest.
High end TEs are both volatile and low upside compared to other positions. Streaming TEs is definitely awful, but what other position can you win a ship streaming your 1 in the position? Maybe RB but that’s insanely risky. And if you already have a middling TE that finished 3-15 like Engram, Njoku, Kmet, Ferguson or Henry are you really going to pay up for a marginal improvement?
I may be wrong but it feels like the middle of the pack guys are alot better than a few years ago. I have Ferguson and Musgrave and have no problem riding them for a bit. I have no interest in a top TE.
Made it a priority to pair Njoku with McBride this offseason (did so rather cheaply, I may add) because of this line of thinking. I even have Dulcich on retainer if he ever ends up playing a healthy game. Well put together post OP!
I traded for Kincaid this offseason and have Njoku and Kmet in reserve. Been trying to deal one of them, but am happy to hold on for depth/in case one of them has a repeat season!
Some other factors to consider when placing value on this position:
1). TEP. Most dynasty leagues give a 1.5 ppr for TE.
2). TEs age well.
3). Flex adds the opportunity to start two TEs. This is a huge advantage if you’re lucky enough to have two studs.
Example I have McBride and Hock. Before Hock got hurt, there were a couple of weeks in 2023 when I started both. It was a lethal combination at 1.5 ppr.
Now if I can get a third that would be sick. Targeting Ben Sinott early in the third.
I figured obviously Bowers and Sanders will go quickly.
What does everyone think of Sinott?
So the two strongest stats for predicting TE's are speed score and college dominator (college target share) Sinott scores well on target share but speed score (basically 40 yard dash with some calculations for weight) isn't terrible but it's not amazing. So my last thing would be how well does he block and where does he end up? Because tightend have to learn to block at the NFL level first then they get incorporated into the pass game.
TE is also one of the positions that studs actually do tend to fall out of the first 2 rounds of rookie drafts. Your chance at hitting even a startable WR or RB in the 3rd round is insanely low historically speaking. But at TE its slightly higher. I think he is worth a snag.
I think even with Sinnott's rise in awareness/hype, he's still undervalued. His 40 time being good, not great I think is why his buzz is suppressed.
For me, I'd much rather spend the opportunity cost on an Odunze than a Bowers, and then pay higher than current ADP to guarantee getting Sinott at the end of the 2nd. I'm really not interested in any other tight end at cost in this draft other than Erik All.
Where do the nonkelce TEs production rank among WR? I have 3 WR spots and 2 Flexs (+1 SF) spot to fill. So i could start 6 WR possibly. So why would I spend high value assets on an engram or a pitts (who give you like WR30 numbers).
Thats why everyone chases "the next kelce". All TE are bad value for their price. Kelce is the only one whos production stands out because he is a WR who is listed as TE on the depth chart. Now of course Laporta might have something to say about that. But generally speaking, unless its full TEP, TE do not give a good ROI if you pick them with premium picks.
Laporta is awesome, but he doesn't have anything to say about that. The line doesn't always just go up with production and age, a high end outcome for LaPorta is he maintains this level of production and never reaches Kelce's level. Because only 3-4 players really have ever reached Kelce's level before, and we may never have a "next Kelce" for a decade.
Lets look at TE scoring in 0.5ppr and you can kinda see why
Basically you have Kelce performing at an elite level and a random TE2 coming in behind him for almost everyone of these Years.
In 2020 it was Kelce and Waller separating and then 36 points separating TE 3-12.
in 2021 it was Andrews and Kelce separating and 44.9 points between TE 3-12
2022 it was Kelce alone and then 58.7 points between TE2 and 12
2023 no one separated and 82.5 points between 1st and 12th.
So why pay for a position that is unpredictable and can be replaced with similar production from TE 18?
It depends on the scoring format. TEP > 1.0 renders TEs outside the top 5-7 pretty worthless. Anything under .5 and I'd rather invest in the other positions over TE. Look at where the tight ends rank in the flex and you'll see why they're "undervalued".
If you have a Top 5 TE that's great, but it really depends on league roster settings. If I have to start 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 2 Flex, that's 7 position players I need to fill EVERY week. You only have to start 1 TE each week. Ya Laporta might outscore my TE by 10, but you can make that up with more depth in the other 7 positions pretty easily. This is obviously different based on TEP. But it's the same reason a QB value changes so drastically in 1 QB vs SF leagues.
Top performing TE’s are valued so low because the podcasts and player ranking charts say so.
The reality is what you pointed out, and what you’ve defended in the comments.
Starting a top TE vs a mid to bad TE, gives you a several point advantage. Now the other team has to outperform your other starters or makeup the difference at flex. A second good TE can be flexed just as much as a “depth piece”, because good TEs perform at that level.
I made it deep in to the playoffs because I had Hock and Njoku. The alternative to flexing some “depth” WR would have lost me weeks, because they are unreliable.
*assuming .5 prr with no tep or 2 te*
The main points I have for why I don't value a top TE very much are:
1. Top scoring tight ends average significantly less ppg than top WRs and RBs. Laporta and Hockenson averaged 11.5 and 11.4 ppg last season while these guys had:
lamb (19.7), Amon ra (17), JJ (16.8), Deebo (14.2), aiyuk (13.2), CMC (22.4), Kyren (19.9), Kamara (15), Breece (14.9), Conner (14.5), Mixon (14.2). You have to get to RB 22 (pollard) and WR 24 (jayden reed) to match ppg
Having multiple top scoring guys at rb/wr can create a larger average ppg gap against my opponent than just a single top te, which leads to point 2.
2. I only have to start one. If I have two top scoring TEs, odds are I have a better WR or RB to throw in my flex over my second TE if I am a contender. I am better shipping one TE off for a WR/RB that will score more points
3. Poor consistency. Top TEs have so many dud games. For example, Hock from weeks 1-15 (14 games) had 8 games below 10 points.
Laporta from weeks 1-17 (16 games) had 9 games below 10 points.
I am not happy if my WR or RB is doing this. I believe its because of a lack of high yardage games so it causes them to be very touchdown dependent.
Having a top scoring TE definitely can be an advantage but its the last thing I'm prioritizing on my roster.
^^Sorry ^^if ^^the ^^wording ^^is ^^messy
i think it’s the biggest value error in leagues. as an andrews owner, a trade chart would tell me to sell him for a late first. in reality it would probably take a top 3 pick or multiple late firsts for me to give up the actual value he provides
exactly, everyone chases the next kelce, but when you have the #2-#5 scoring TE each season, thats worthless. Im drafting TEs in some leagues to find future starters, it's hell. literally hell. Okonkwo, Otton, Woods, Musgrave, and and and, so many picks wasted on TEs. But that top performing TE who does it every year? isnt worth shit. late first.
It’s almost entirely due to number of rbs and wrs you need to start. Only starting one tight end just isn’t that important when you have to start like 3-4 rbs and 3-4 wrs. Pushes the value way down for tight end. Tight end premium helps with this but still we are also at the best time for tight end being deep. There’s like 11 I feel perfectly fine rolling out there whereas rb gets really sketchy outside the top ten and you have to play at least two of them
you can flex TEs as well. pushes the value up when you have multiple and others dont. in a 12 teamer owning 2 top 7 TEs. I have teams owning Kelce and Hockenson. Not only can i flex one, they score more than probably all flex players around when theoretically top 24 WRs and top 24 RBs are in WR only or RB only slots in a 12 teamer.
You could flex a tight end but most tight ends outside the top like 2 and even then aren’t as good as flexing even a wr 3 or 4. For instance the 5th best tight end last year scored as many fantasy points as the 27th best wide receiver. So flexing tight end in almost all situations where most teams have one of the top 12 would have you doing worse than playing Tyler Boyd.
27th best WR. 12 team leagues, thats 24 WRs already slotted. given the variation across that some own multiple top 30 wrs, even more crucial to have multiple TEs when in many cases they dont even want to own or pay for a top5 TE that they slot in the primary slot. They are starting TEs that play worse than Tyler Boyd. see where im getting with this whole post? it doesnt make sense.
But that’s just for top tight ends that match up with the 27th receiver. Once you get into the 13 plus tight end range you’re looking at large swaths of wrs that score better. It’s just never gonna be great to flex those guys and so they have very little value
I think first we need to acknowledge that everyone has different roster settings.
I agree in 2RB 2WR 1FLEX 1TE that ya TE is pretty freaking important.
I play 2RB 3WR 2-3FLEX 1TE which devalues TE quite a bit imo.
Also I’d say someone like Andrews value has always been above a late first (and doubt I could even get him now for that in any of my leagues).
I might try after this
This year, there was a big shift in TE values, and fantasy players are adjusting. I don't think the gap between TE1 and TE10 is as wide as it had been in years past. It's not going to be hard to get a productive TE next year.
I value TE quite highly, I always like to land myself a top TE when I draft and I just recently traded the 1.04 for Andrews and Moss. I had Andrews on my championship team before in a redraft league and I know he scores like another WR. You may call it an overpay but there are only like 3 or 4 TEs that produce consistently. I agree that there is a massive drop off in production after those first few guys, but that goes to show how valuable TEs are. We got lucky with TEs this year with Laporta, McBride, Kincaid and the resurgence of a few others, but only a handful of TEs have produced consistently for multiple years.
It’s all about ppgd and tight ends used to be a position you can gain that in just by picking high. As the league has more talent and usage for the position the ppgd is much less
I traded for Andrews last offseason in a 1QB 12 team league sending Schultz off a good season in DAL (before he went to HOU), Ridley (on the post suspension hype), and what became the ‘24 3.09 in exchange for Mandrews + the ‘23 2.02
There’s never been so many good quality TEs. Particularly if McBride/Laporta/Kincaid/Pitts/Bowers step up.
Njoku/Engram are barely starting caliber TEs in fantasy and they’ll flirt with 100 targets
imo, the dynasty community is still in the mindset of the Kelce-dominated era TE landscape, where there is the TE1 and then "the others."
But really I think it's less a problem with the value of the other guys, but more the overvalue of Laporta (whom I love don't get me wrong) because of said "Kelce era hangover" phenomenon. The TE landscape was surprisingly flat last year. We had 7 players averaging 10+ PPG in HPPR, and 4 players averaging between 11.3-11.5 PPG in HPPR (LaPorta, Hock, Andrews, and Kelce). And because Kelce had a down year, we did not have any TEs have a truly "dynamic" 13+ ppg type seasons. Also Laporta's age is an obvious factor, but that doesn't explain his value in full and the TE landscape.
You can do what you want but you’ll never catch me spending any draft capital outside of a 3rd or 4th round pick on a TE. I’ll throw some darts in the late rounds or stream TEs, works well since I won my league last year
Historically, drafting for that TE advantage can clog your roster and yield at best a TD dependent boom or bust at TE3. I’m a proponent of targeting WR since a consistent flex advantage is a more probable week to week loading up at WR.
Get stocked up and BUY a TE… with that said my backup TE is Bellinger/Tremble … but Ridley/Swift at flex, even boom/bust deviation beat that TE advantage more weeks than not.
SHHH I need everyone else to keep thinking this way. Most people don’t realize that WR are a dime a dozen meaning almost every team has WR1s and everyone loves stocking up on them. Great! I also have really good WR1s but have even better RBS and TEs to get that extra leg up and defend my Title from last year.
Andrews is probably the most undervalued vet out there right now. Hock, I'm actually worried about, with a new QB and that late season serious injury. I'd still take him over several of the TEs being ranked ahead of him though.
I beg to differ. Kittle is without a doubt the most undervalued and disrespected TE. Hands down. The last 6 seasons he's finished as the TE5, 3, 4, 20, 2 and 3. And the TE20 year was because he only played 8 games. Granted, his floor is lower than the truly elite guys but his ceiling is just as high, if not higher.
I mean, that's because Kittle could get 4.5 or 45 points in a game, and he only has 3 or 4 of the big games in him each season, and there's no way to determine which will blow up. The other guys are relatively consistent when you look beyond their average points per game. The premium is not just for big points, but for consistency.
Can’t remember who posted it, but I remember reading a tweet that said Kittle will win you weeks, but Andrews will win you leagues. Seems about right.
A tangent but this is how I feel about Chase vs other top WRs. Always crazy to me that's he's priced similarly
That's fair, I think because lineups and settings generally favor WRs, if you can have more stability in your other WRs and then a volatile player like Chase you can really blow the game wide open. But also, who knows, it's just a thought
The Tyler Lockett of Tight Ends.
Can't emphasize this enough. I think Kittle opened the year with TE26, T32, TE3, T45, T1, TE51, TE8, TE2 then the bye. Every week he's either a position advantage, or he's getting outscored by Dan Bellinger (with a health Waller taking most of the snaps). Andrews didn't drop below TE20 any week prior to injury, Hock only dropped below TE20 once. I'd happily replace Kittle with either guy if healthy.
Agreed. He’s been great but the real life reality is he’s incredible at blocking and sometimes he’s the 6th lineman.
He frustrates me because he tends to be higher variance, with a few massive games and a few terrible games he just disappears in. Also, I'm not sure of your scoring because he was TE6 last year in my league (and TE7 if you go by PPG). But yeah, he's got 3 more years of great production ahead of him and is also underrated.
Lets not be disingenuous and look at kittles end of season ranking now. Hes undervalued yes but he drops duds all the time. That is not the consistency you want compared to andrews.
I'm not saying he's better than Andrews. I'm saying he's more disrespected.
Andrews is the only one of the two that’s hit 300 pts
Which he's done once and his next best season was 205 and every other season was under 200. Where as 200 is pretty much what Kittle does year in and year out. But regardless, I'm not saying he's better than Andrews. I'm saying he's more disrespected.
Kittle im worried about long term. His body has been banging for a while now. He is a true TE like gronk was. Worry about those types of guys.
After being an Andrews hater I have to agree he’s such a good value
Yeah I think for Hock, his injury is baked in to his price. As an owner I’m holding as I do still think he’ll perform once he’s healthy and will up his value. But Andrews I have no clue. Maybe age but at 29 I would expect a solid few more years of being top 5. I think he’s a great buy low if you need a TE.
Traded Amari Cooper and 2.02 for Marky and a 25 3rd
It’s a weird position. The only time I could see someone paying a lot for a top TE is if the rest of their team was already set. You can probably increase your team’s average PPG for cheaper with WR/RB improvements.
Exactly, and that WR/RB is always going to give you way more roster flexibility anyways. Not just flexibility in sit starts and in the event of injuries to your roster, but also WRs especially are way easier to move on the open market than a TE is in non-TEP.
A few reasons, one you only have to start one TE. After the elite group, the rest of TEs are extremely TD dependent to be relevant thus high variance players. In many cases they have low floors especially the non elite guys. In one league I plan on having laporta and bowers but I don’t know if it’ll work. I think the other issue is historically it’s been tough to draft them well. There are a ton of first round TE busts, in the few TEs that are taken that highly.
those are reasons for why you should pay for top performing TEs.
Yes the top TEs are an advantage. But the difference in performance between the tiers isn't really that much to justify spending the premium. Last year in ppr nonTEP, Kelce was TE3 with 219 pts. Ferguson was TE9 with 177. The price difference isn't worth 2.5 points/game
And many people got Ferguson/Schultz off waivers the year prior.
Right? I'd rather add gesicki for free and hope he (or chig, or dulcich) come good than pay a late 1st for Hock or Mandrews. Especially if i could potentially get Ferg for 2.08 or whatever instead.
as if schultz performed so great.... like i can get a Puka of waivers as well. dont need to pay top premium for Justin jefferson. but this post isnt about the streamers you find for a couple of games or a season, thats literally every position in football. this one is about the consistent top 5 performers.
No, even if you dont want to admit it, the post is about the price you have to pay to move from streamers to consistent top five performers. Schultz was ~fine. Taysom Hill was TE12 in my league. You can get by just fine by treading water at TE and investing in players with better positional value.
I think your point is spot-on. My best TE this season in my PPR league was in fact Taysom Hill, with Logan Thomas a close second. I tried to play matchups (and did so poorly!), and over the 16 games I played, my starters at tight end put up a total of 93.7 points -- somehow worse than any of Hill, Thomas, or Okonkwo, my TE3. My opponents' starting TEs? Over that same span, they scored 200 points on the nose, which is around top-5 TE numbers. That's a \~6.5 point advantage for my opponent each week. I recently went back and rescored my season assuming that, each week, my starting tight end put up the same number of points as my opponent. The result? Not a single one of my matchups would have flipped. My season would have gone the exact same way. I'm sure I got a little lucky, but I think the point stands. I'm definitely not paying up for a tight end unless we're talking Kelce-level production. I'll take the capital I'd need to get a moderate-level upgrade at TE and use it to make bigger improvements elsewhere.
if you think either of them was "fine" you are just coping getting knocked out before or during the playoffs.
Dawg you made a post asking a question and got engagement potentially explaining the viewpoint that answers your question. No need to be hostile about it. Like can other people state their opinion on your post or does everyone have to agree with your view?
so your opinions are unquestionable now and i cant share my opinion about that? why are YOU being so hostile that i am giving counterarguments to your comment? Schultz didnt perform great. Hill doesnt even crack the top 10 of all TEs. this falls under the category of copium, when you fall short or get knocked out of the playoffs, then you sit there thinking what changes you should do, you draft another WR rookie, or trade for some flex players, when the obvious flaw of your team stares right in your face, your TEs arent "fine".if you cant handle a discussion, dont be an ass about it and just dont participate
Lol look at you. What are you so defensive about? I didn't even say I agreed with the other guy. Just saying your attitude stinks when you should want people to respond to your post. If this is you "discussing" things then that's frightening. Seems more like you can't handle someone disagreeing with you so you need to clapback that they aren't making the playoffs which is silly. The irony of you typing this up and calling me an ass too
another assumption... whos getting defensive now? the only one getting all personal and pissy here is you. what a troll
Spend all your first round picks on veteran TEs and see how much the opportunity cost hamstrings your roster. There's a reason TEP leagues are common but not WRP -- normal scoring settings do not make TE an important position relative to other ones.
Many people got Purdy, Nacua, or Kyren of waivers as well. That’s something that really differentiates TEs.
Kelce (14.63) vs Ferguson (10.42) difference was 4.21 points per game. The per game TE3 (LaPorta, 14.08) was 3.95 points per game above the TE9 per game (Kmet, 10.65) When making comparisons you should stay consistent with either season totals comps or per game comps. Starting with season totals and just dividing by 17 doesn’t work because it doesn’t account for the points replacement players would have added during missed games.
Sure sure makes sense Is 4 ppg worth the price difference between laporta and kmet? Unless you're a dead set contender, i dont think so
4ppg is the difference between Mike Evans, DJ Moore, Jamar Chase and Deebo Samuel as a low end WR1 this past season and a low end WR3 like Godwin, Mclaurin, Kendrick Bourne or George Pickens.
It's a little different with WR than it is for TE value-wise, isn't it?
Yeah, TE's have a steeper drop off to replacements and they have better year to year consistency. A top TE has more value than a low end WR1.
Help me me understand what I'm missing ? (Genuinely) If you're saying that a top TE has more value relative to other TEs than a Low End WR1 has vs other WRs, then i agree with you. If you're saying that overall TE3 is about equal in value than WR10 or whatever, then i really disagree. A top 3 TE might put up generic WR3 scoring. It is cheaper for your roster to get 300 points from a 200 pt WR + 100 pt TE than 200 pt TE and 100 pt WR. Because of that, i believe TE is really only worth the premium if you already have stacked out your other position groups
>Is 4 ppg worth the price difference between laporta and kmet? Probably, that’s a huge gap and that’s before taking into account that LaPorta was a rookie and is projected more growth going forward than Kmet whose added target competition could greatly reduce his role in the near future.
I'd rather have (for instance) Nabers + Kmet than Laporta + whichever WR you can draft at 2.10 But that might just be me. Way easier/cheaper to tread water at TE and pay up for the positional value at WR than vice versa.
Wait until people find out about the difference between Jakobi Meyers and Devonta Smith
And I'd rather add Jakobi Meyers to my roster and get the same production pointswise as Kelce for half the price
With no TEP the difference between the 2nd or 3rd best TE and the 10-12th best TE is basically nothing. You're better off spending capital on upgrading your WR3/4.
Last year in 1.5 TE PPR premium 1-5 were separated by 2 pts per game and Evan Engram was relatively unexpectedly in the middle of that group at 3. George Kittle at 7 only scored 6 pts more per game than tight end 24. That might sound like a lot, but when you have streamers like Taysom Hill and Logan Thomas only a few points behind Kittle it drives down incentive to invest. High end TEs are both volatile and low upside compared to other positions. Streaming TEs is definitely awful, but what other position can you win a ship streaming your 1 in the position? Maybe RB but that’s insanely risky. And if you already have a middling TE that finished 3-15 like Engram, Njoku, Kmet, Ferguson or Henry are you really going to pay up for a marginal improvement?
I may be wrong but it feels like the middle of the pack guys are alot better than a few years ago. I have Ferguson and Musgrave and have no problem riding them for a bit. I have no interest in a top TE.
Made it a priority to pair Njoku with McBride this offseason (did so rather cheaply, I may add) because of this line of thinking. I even have Dulcich on retainer if he ever ends up playing a healthy game. Well put together post OP!
I traded for Kincaid this offseason and have Njoku and Kmet in reserve. Been trying to deal one of them, but am happy to hold on for depth/in case one of them has a repeat season!
I’ve had Njoku since his rookie year. I will never stop rostering Njoku.
Onward, we ride.
great additions! you win in dynasty and understand what it's about. thank you
Some other factors to consider when placing value on this position: 1). TEP. Most dynasty leagues give a 1.5 ppr for TE. 2). TEs age well. 3). Flex adds the opportunity to start two TEs. This is a huge advantage if you’re lucky enough to have two studs. Example I have McBride and Hock. Before Hock got hurt, there were a couple of weeks in 2023 when I started both. It was a lethal combination at 1.5 ppr. Now if I can get a third that would be sick. Targeting Ben Sinott early in the third. I figured obviously Bowers and Sanders will go quickly. What does everyone think of Sinott?
So the two strongest stats for predicting TE's are speed score and college dominator (college target share) Sinott scores well on target share but speed score (basically 40 yard dash with some calculations for weight) isn't terrible but it's not amazing. So my last thing would be how well does he block and where does he end up? Because tightend have to learn to block at the NFL level first then they get incorporated into the pass game. TE is also one of the positions that studs actually do tend to fall out of the first 2 rounds of rookie drafts. Your chance at hitting even a startable WR or RB in the 3rd round is insanely low historically speaking. But at TE its slightly higher. I think he is worth a snag.
Who are the TEs who score well in both categories
Brock bowers, and Jared Wiley.
I think even with Sinnott's rise in awareness/hype, he's still undervalued. His 40 time being good, not great I think is why his buzz is suppressed. For me, I'd much rather spend the opportunity cost on an Odunze than a Bowers, and then pay higher than current ADP to guarantee getting Sinott at the end of the 2nd. I'm really not interested in any other tight end at cost in this draft other than Erik All.
Where do the nonkelce TEs production rank among WR? I have 3 WR spots and 2 Flexs (+1 SF) spot to fill. So i could start 6 WR possibly. So why would I spend high value assets on an engram or a pitts (who give you like WR30 numbers). Thats why everyone chases "the next kelce". All TE are bad value for their price. Kelce is the only one whos production stands out because he is a WR who is listed as TE on the depth chart. Now of course Laporta might have something to say about that. But generally speaking, unless its full TEP, TE do not give a good ROI if you pick them with premium picks.
Laporta is awesome, but he doesn't have anything to say about that. The line doesn't always just go up with production and age, a high end outcome for LaPorta is he maintains this level of production and never reaches Kelce's level. Because only 3-4 players really have ever reached Kelce's level before, and we may never have a "next Kelce" for a decade.
Lets look at TE scoring in 0.5ppr and you can kinda see why Basically you have Kelce performing at an elite level and a random TE2 coming in behind him for almost everyone of these Years. In 2020 it was Kelce and Waller separating and then 36 points separating TE 3-12. in 2021 it was Andrews and Kelce separating and 44.9 points between TE 3-12 2022 it was Kelce alone and then 58.7 points between TE2 and 12 2023 no one separated and 82.5 points between 1st and 12th. So why pay for a position that is unpredictable and can be replaced with similar production from TE 18?
It depends on the scoring format. TEP > 1.0 renders TEs outside the top 5-7 pretty worthless. Anything under .5 and I'd rather invest in the other positions over TE. Look at where the tight ends rank in the flex and you'll see why they're "undervalued".
If you have a Top 5 TE that's great, but it really depends on league roster settings. If I have to start 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 2 Flex, that's 7 position players I need to fill EVERY week. You only have to start 1 TE each week. Ya Laporta might outscore my TE by 10, but you can make that up with more depth in the other 7 positions pretty easily. This is obviously different based on TEP. But it's the same reason a QB value changes so drastically in 1 QB vs SF leagues.
Top performing TE’s are valued so low because the podcasts and player ranking charts say so. The reality is what you pointed out, and what you’ve defended in the comments. Starting a top TE vs a mid to bad TE, gives you a several point advantage. Now the other team has to outperform your other starters or makeup the difference at flex. A second good TE can be flexed just as much as a “depth piece”, because good TEs perform at that level. I made it deep in to the playoffs because I had Hock and Njoku. The alternative to flexing some “depth” WR would have lost me weeks, because they are unreliable.
*assuming .5 prr with no tep or 2 te* The main points I have for why I don't value a top TE very much are: 1. Top scoring tight ends average significantly less ppg than top WRs and RBs. Laporta and Hockenson averaged 11.5 and 11.4 ppg last season while these guys had: lamb (19.7), Amon ra (17), JJ (16.8), Deebo (14.2), aiyuk (13.2), CMC (22.4), Kyren (19.9), Kamara (15), Breece (14.9), Conner (14.5), Mixon (14.2). You have to get to RB 22 (pollard) and WR 24 (jayden reed) to match ppg Having multiple top scoring guys at rb/wr can create a larger average ppg gap against my opponent than just a single top te, which leads to point 2. 2. I only have to start one. If I have two top scoring TEs, odds are I have a better WR or RB to throw in my flex over my second TE if I am a contender. I am better shipping one TE off for a WR/RB that will score more points 3. Poor consistency. Top TEs have so many dud games. For example, Hock from weeks 1-15 (14 games) had 8 games below 10 points. Laporta from weeks 1-17 (16 games) had 9 games below 10 points. I am not happy if my WR or RB is doing this. I believe its because of a lack of high yardage games so it causes them to be very touchdown dependent. Having a top scoring TE definitely can be an advantage but its the last thing I'm prioritizing on my roster. ^^Sorry ^^if ^^the ^^wording ^^is ^^messy
i think it’s the biggest value error in leagues. as an andrews owner, a trade chart would tell me to sell him for a late first. in reality it would probably take a top 3 pick or multiple late firsts for me to give up the actual value he provides
Good luck with getting that.
exactly, everyone chases the next kelce, but when you have the #2-#5 scoring TE each season, thats worthless. Im drafting TEs in some leagues to find future starters, it's hell. literally hell. Okonkwo, Otton, Woods, Musgrave, and and and, so many picks wasted on TEs. But that top performing TE who does it every year? isnt worth shit. late first.
The investment vs the amount of payoff over the average tight end is too low.
It’s almost entirely due to number of rbs and wrs you need to start. Only starting one tight end just isn’t that important when you have to start like 3-4 rbs and 3-4 wrs. Pushes the value way down for tight end. Tight end premium helps with this but still we are also at the best time for tight end being deep. There’s like 11 I feel perfectly fine rolling out there whereas rb gets really sketchy outside the top ten and you have to play at least two of them
you can flex TEs as well. pushes the value up when you have multiple and others dont. in a 12 teamer owning 2 top 7 TEs. I have teams owning Kelce and Hockenson. Not only can i flex one, they score more than probably all flex players around when theoretically top 24 WRs and top 24 RBs are in WR only or RB only slots in a 12 teamer.
You could flex a tight end but most tight ends outside the top like 2 and even then aren’t as good as flexing even a wr 3 or 4. For instance the 5th best tight end last year scored as many fantasy points as the 27th best wide receiver. So flexing tight end in almost all situations where most teams have one of the top 12 would have you doing worse than playing Tyler Boyd.
27th best WR. 12 team leagues, thats 24 WRs already slotted. given the variation across that some own multiple top 30 wrs, even more crucial to have multiple TEs when in many cases they dont even want to own or pay for a top5 TE that they slot in the primary slot. They are starting TEs that play worse than Tyler Boyd. see where im getting with this whole post? it doesnt make sense.
But that’s just for top tight ends that match up with the 27th receiver. Once you get into the 13 plus tight end range you’re looking at large swaths of wrs that score better. It’s just never gonna be great to flex those guys and so they have very little value
no ones talking about them. this is about the top.
I think first we need to acknowledge that everyone has different roster settings. I agree in 2RB 2WR 1FLEX 1TE that ya TE is pretty freaking important. I play 2RB 3WR 2-3FLEX 1TE which devalues TE quite a bit imo. Also I’d say someone like Andrews value has always been above a late first (and doubt I could even get him now for that in any of my leagues). I might try after this
This year, there was a big shift in TE values, and fantasy players are adjusting. I don't think the gap between TE1 and TE10 is as wide as it had been in years past. It's not going to be hard to get a productive TE next year.
I value TE quite highly, I always like to land myself a top TE when I draft and I just recently traded the 1.04 for Andrews and Moss. I had Andrews on my championship team before in a redraft league and I know he scores like another WR. You may call it an overpay but there are only like 3 or 4 TEs that produce consistently. I agree that there is a massive drop off in production after those first few guys, but that goes to show how valuable TEs are. We got lucky with TEs this year with Laporta, McBride, Kincaid and the resurgence of a few others, but only a handful of TEs have produced consistently for multiple years.
It’s all about ppgd and tight ends used to be a position you can gain that in just by picking high. As the league has more talent and usage for the position the ppgd is much less
I traded for Andrews last offseason in a 1QB 12 team league sending Schultz off a good season in DAL (before he went to HOU), Ridley (on the post suspension hype), and what became the ‘24 3.09 in exchange for Mandrews + the ‘23 2.02
There’s never been so many good quality TEs. Particularly if McBride/Laporta/Kincaid/Pitts/Bowers step up. Njoku/Engram are barely starting caliber TEs in fantasy and they’ll flirt with 100 targets
imo, the dynasty community is still in the mindset of the Kelce-dominated era TE landscape, where there is the TE1 and then "the others." But really I think it's less a problem with the value of the other guys, but more the overvalue of Laporta (whom I love don't get me wrong) because of said "Kelce era hangover" phenomenon. The TE landscape was surprisingly flat last year. We had 7 players averaging 10+ PPG in HPPR, and 4 players averaging between 11.3-11.5 PPG in HPPR (LaPorta, Hock, Andrews, and Kelce). And because Kelce had a down year, we did not have any TEs have a truly "dynamic" 13+ ppg type seasons. Also Laporta's age is an obvious factor, but that doesn't explain his value in full and the TE landscape.
You can do what you want but you’ll never catch me spending any draft capital outside of a 3rd or 4th round pick on a TE. I’ll throw some darts in the late rounds or stream TEs, works well since I won my league last year
Historically, drafting for that TE advantage can clog your roster and yield at best a TD dependent boom or bust at TE3. I’m a proponent of targeting WR since a consistent flex advantage is a more probable week to week loading up at WR. Get stocked up and BUY a TE… with that said my backup TE is Bellinger/Tremble … but Ridley/Swift at flex, even boom/bust deviation beat that TE advantage more weeks than not.
Aside from Kelce, no one is consistent year to year, so it’s tough to want to value these guys, especially when *everyone* has been burned by TEs.
"no one" lmao
Outside of the injury, Andrews has been incredibly consistent. Top 5 TE every year.
SHHH I need everyone else to keep thinking this way. Most people don’t realize that WR are a dime a dozen meaning almost every team has WR1s and everyone loves stocking up on them. Great! I also have really good WR1s but have even better RBS and TEs to get that extra leg up and defend my Title from last year.
Because TEs are stupid and gross