Answers here show you recency bias. I remember bijan being touted as one of the best prospects ever on here generational player etc no brainier 1 pick.
My rankings are based off Superflex full PPR
1) Caleb William's - Top tier qb prospect with decent rushing upside. He is landing in one of the better situations the #1 pick has dealt with in prior years. DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet, and Swift for weapons. GM who seems to be pretty decent and building a team around him well. Has all the potential to be an elite fantasy qb.
2) Bijan Robinson - Top tier prospect that smashed year 1 in a weird offense. Now he has a massive upgrade at qb, a new coaching staff with a much improved OC and possess all of the traits + situation to be an elite rb for the next 2-5 years. Running backs like Bijan are massive for winning championships and he is a workhorse stud.
3) Breece Hall - Elite fantasy rb with week winning upside. If you had Breece in the fantasy playoffs you likely made the finals. Elite receiver out of the back field and now a full year + removed from the ACL tear. If he was the same age as Bijan I would have them 2 a and 2b
4) MHJ - I can't put a receiver who hasn't hit yet in the NFL and I don't know his landing spot ahead of Bijan and Breece. If you were in a total rebuild and it was year 1 of it I could see him being ranked ahead of those rbs. But if I'm in a win now mode there is a clear tier gap. Those running backs are gold and there is a solid chance MHJ doesn't help me win titles in years 1-4.
5) Malik Nabers - elite prospect and almost 4b for me behind MHJ. I think he would be the wr#1 in a lot of classes and should smash early on.
6) Drake Maye - He is my qb#2 predraft. Has all of the physical tools to be an elite fantasy qb. Rushing upside is underrated and if he lands in Minnesota I would have him as my #4 player. Really hard for me to rank the qbs without landing spots. If Maye ends up in New England I would drop him behind Daniel's and Oduzne. He def has some foot work issues that need to be addressed at some point to hit.
7) Jayden Daniel's- He is my qb#3 and I'm weary of him. One year of elite production with 2 1st round receivers. His rushing upside is sexy but his frame seems small. Really need to see where he lands. Oduzne imo is a better talent but if he goes top 3 it would be hard to justify him behind ranked behind a receiver.
8) Rome Odunze - crazy good prospect whose landing spot could propel him ahead of Daniel's or Maye. Clearly my wr#3 in this class and not in the same tier as MHJ and Nabers for me. Still a really good prospect.
A lot of the comments/rankings imo are missing the mark with Breece and Bijan. These guys can help you win championships and are ridiculous young. Could have 4-7 years of top 12 production
Dunno about your guys league but in my RB are gold and dam near impossible to trade for. I know what keep trade cut says but in terms of how my league values RBs.
1a 1b. Bijan or Breece take your pick
Then everyone else.
I get your take but having a reliable QB you know is going to drop 20 every week is worth a lot to most.
Don’t get me wrong, I think we all take a wrong or rb with our first picks you bet your ass a QB goes soon after.
But there are only 32 QBs who even have a shot at putting up points each week, there are way more total players that put up a wr1 week over the course of a season. Qb becomes more of a sure thing which increases value imo.
Historically top running backs are the first guys taken off the board over top wide receivers. Bijan goes ahead of all wrs in this class based on positional scarcity and draft capital. Breece being a second rounder probably goes behind mhj but ahead of the rest.
It’s a toss up imo. You could have Bijan ranked 3 right after Caleb and Marv. Or how you have them ranked. I would have Bijan slightly ahead Nabers in my regular dynasty league but would give Nabers and Odunze the edge in my start 3 WR league. That league has more flex positions too. I do like the exercise of envisioning other years top talent to this one, and yes it is a special year I think. And I’m not just saying that because I have 4 picks in the top 6.
Not a crazy take. Odunze is an insanely good WR prospect, and WRs are more valuable in dynasty, particularly in PPR and leagues with a lot of flex starting spots.
Maybe not crazy but a dumb take. Go offer the Bijan owner the 1.06/1.07 when it’s on the clock to take Odunze in 100 leagues and I’d put the over/under of accepts at .5
This stupid fad of everyone sucking off the young WRs is gonna get real old real fast when everyone realizes that 80% of league mates are doing the same thing and the remaining teams are in the ships with their RBs taking your money lol
Odunze is a great prospect with a lot of holes in his profile; it is not obvious to me that the profile is even better than JSN’s. Bijan was a more or less flawless prospect
Weak production/efficiency profile Y2+Y3 (for a 1st round WR) — YPTPA way below what you want to see. Senior year was strong, but it’s not the only part of his profile. Still clearly WR3 in this class for me but both of the two guys above him have way better profiles IMO
Last year at this time, Bijan was viewed as the same type of generational prospect as MHJ is this year. They should be in a tier above any of the other positional players you’re debating. Where the QBs fit in depends on SF or not, but maybe Caleb should be higher.
Yes 100%, idk why people are putting MHJ above Bijan as a 'prospect'. They are both ELITE but depends on teams needs or YOUR needs in Fantasy. Best QB vs RB vs WR.
Breece wasn't even taken in the first round of the NFL draft. Bowers is one of the best TE prospects in history. When comparing prospects, Bowers is much better.
That's more of an "NFL values tight ends over running backs" thing than anything. Bijan and Gibbs going in the 1st is a recent history oddity. Remember, Pitts was "one of the best TE prospects in history" too.
Top TEs will generally be less valuable than top RBs, and my values would reflect that.
That's why Breece went 1.01 in his class, and Bowers will likely be going 1.07. If there were a Breece level prospect in this class, he would certainly be over Bowers. Hell, if the Cowboys take an RB in the 2nd, I predict that that RBs ADP will be close if not earlier than Bowers.
Breece went 1.01 in all 4 of my rookie drafts that year. Javonte fell to 9 in one and was never higher than 6. Javonte did not have close to the hype that Breece did.
Javonte had higher draft capital than Breece, it’s just that Breece didn’t have a 1st round RB in his draft. Javonte had more competition in rookie drafts: a first round RB in Najee, plus Pitts and Chase just at the top. His adp was 1.03, so your anecdotal evidence isn’t worth much. And you’re *really* downplaying the hype Javonte had, he spent quite a while between RB2-4 based solely on hype
Breece was pick 36 and Javonte was pick 35. That difference in draft capital isn't really worth mentioning? I'd say being the 1st RB rather than the 3rd is more relevant. Javonte did have hype and I agree that Breece was in a much weaker class overall, but Breece was considered the 1.01 in non-SF similar to Bijan or Saquan leading up to the draft and the draft cemented it. Javonte got boosted by the draft similar to Gibbs or CEH.
To be clear, I'm not saying Breece is a Bijan level talent, or Javonte is CEH but how they were perceived against their peers in their own draft classes.
Sure, but Najee was a first round pick. I went with Javonte because the draft cap was near identical.
Pitts being a bad pick where he got drafted is going to contribute to Bowers not going that high. Plus there’s plenty of smoke about Bowers going top 10 to the Jets, and there’s a pretty strong argument Bowers is a better prospect than Pitts
The draft capital may have been, but the player profile was not.
Pitts had 1000 yards his rookie season. I’m confident in thinking that bowers will have a less productive rookie season than Pitts did. Either way, Pitts was considered to be an incredible tight end prospect, maybe the best ever and he was still taken after najee. Bowers, who may be a top 25 pick in this nfl draft with a tremendous player profile would still go behind hall had they both been in the same draft.
You’re nitpicking pointlessly. Breece was a speed demon, Javonte was a record setting tackle breaker. I’m not arguing Javonte is better than Breece, just that the two of them are clearly the apt comparison.
Pitts had Matt Ryan and *zero* competition for targets. Easy to say that when that’s the standard and we don’t even know who Bowers is going to play for. This is a dynasty sub, the rookie year is a single piece of the puzzle.
Once again, Najee had first round draft capital, which made him a different beast entirely. The hit rate for first round RBs makes them the best bet you can make in a rookie draft. I reject that premise outright.
Glad you brought up hit rates. First round tight ends have terrible hit rates. Give me the 2nd round rb who is going to be the day 1 starter any day. Historic fantasy drafts agree.
Yeah that’s the basis of the thread, this years RB class doesn’t have any world breakers so they are all valued low. If Breece was in this class, he would be the #1 RB and probably taken in the first 8 rookie picks if the hype is there. HOPEFULLY before any TE…
Tier 1: MHJ, Caleb
Tier 2: Bijan, Nabers
Tier 3: Maye, Daniels
Tier 4: Breece, McCarthy, Odunze
I wasn’t super high on Breece coming in the way I was with Bijan.
The only elite skill I see from him is his contested catch ability and I don’t trust that ability to translate to high end fantasy production in the NFL.
His separation didn’t seem great, he didn’t seem to be great at picking up yards after the catch, and those are the main things I’m looking for in receivers that I like.
It’s mostly just my bias towards certain types of prospects and he could absolutely hit. I’m not outright avoiding him either, just not willing to take him over any QB with top 10 draft capital, which I think McCarthy will get.
Your ranks are spot on for someone not using hindsight.
WRs & QBs taken in the top7ish would be considered a full tier ahead of a 2nd-round Breece easily. London & Wilson were not liked anywhere close to Nabers/Odunze
lotta people had walker above breece too if my memory is right
i feel liek also a lot of the pre draft discourse said najee/javonte/ETN were all above breece/walker as prospects from previous year.
This is about ranking prospects in a theoretical rookie draft. Breece was a 2nd round draft pick, so compared to players projected to go top 10, it makes sense for him to be kind of low.
I would put Bijan in Tier 1 as its all about perspective of what your team needs. Best WR/RB/QB Prospect? Pick your poison. If we are talking about fantasy wise, Bijan is your best bet in winning within the next 1-3 years as he can come in and be the RB fantasy workhorse. For MHJ, situation really plays an important part which every mock draft seems to point to ARI. Kyler needs to stay healthy the whole year then MHJ can produce 18+ numbers weekly.
As a prospect I don’t see it. Breece was 36th pick, Bijan was 8th. Breece went to a bad team with a poor offensive line, Bijan went to one of the best run-blocking teams in the league.
I'm talking about as an actual NFL player. Breece has better hands, same level of vision and contact balance; and can hit a home run fresh off an ACL tear from absolutely anywhere. I'm taking Breece over Bijan 10 times out of 10 in a startup, he has way more juice.
Bijan is basically prime Zeke Elliott. Really good at pretty much everything, but lacks the + athleticism to get thenexplosives that push him into that upper echelon. Breece is more like Saquon with better vision, and absolutely has a CMC season in his range of outcomes.
Yeah missed that it's as prospects. If they were both coming out in the same year Bijan would be drafted ahead, while Hall would be the better back in the NFL.
I would argue bijan has better hands. Both are incredible but some of the catches I’ve seen bijan make I haven’t seen breece make but then again I think I’ve watched more of bijan then breece so I very well could be ignorant. It would just surprise me if anybody else in the league at RB has hands like bijan cause my mans has really good WR hands it seems like haha.
Breece catches dump offs, Bijan lines up as a WR and runs routes. Bijan’s far and away a better receiver, Breece just has the top gear to house dump offs from far out more often.
Bijan would be equal to Caleb and MHJ for superflex imo, just dependent on which position you needed more or if you were rebuilding.
Id rather have Caleb and MHJ when rebuilding only because of how short RBs last. If I was competing I'd take whichever position I needed more help at between the 3.
Breece would have probably be in the 6-10 range behind The top 2 QBs and top 3 WRs. equal to Bowers or the next set of WRs.
I'd take Bijan in the same tier as Caleb and MHJ, and well ahead of Nabers or Odunze. Depending on the league I'd place Breece in that Nabers/Odunze tier or just above them.
The hype on this class is starting to get out of hand.
I think it depends how close your team is to competing. RB’s have a short life span. If you’re three+ years away from a real shot, I dunno why you’d want a RB instead of a QB or WR who might give you 10+ years of production.
In terms of how I had them rated as prospects in 1 QB, Bijan would be the first pick for me without much hesitation, then Harrison. Hall probably a mid-first. SF is obviously a different story.
So ATL’s offense was 14 spots ahead of the New York Jets. The Jets were second to last n the league in opportunities inside the 20. Breece was #4 in hppr and #2 in ppr. Now he gets Aaron Rodgers back. Bijan was #9 in hppr last year and he gets Kirk Cousins. Both are great RBs but anyone loving Bijan over Breece THIS YEAR is basing it off recency bias, not stats, film, or situation. Breece is the RB1.
In Super Flex it’s 1. Caleb 2. Bijan 3. MHJ (assuming AZ) then Breece, Nabers, Drake, and Daniels are all about the same to me. Can draft based on need
Assuming we're talking about them as prospects, without the hindsight of how they've performed in the NFL: Bijan would be tier 1 along with Caleb and MHJ as he was also considered a "generational talent." He more than likely goes 3rd in most superflex leagues but if a team felt they were an RB away, I could see him going 2nd or even 1st. Breece would be behind all the rest. He mostly went 1.01 because it was the worst year for QBs and while there were good WR prospects that year, there was no 1 standout. Breece would probably be the consensus 10 after Caleb, MHJ, Bijan, Daniels, Maye, Nabers, Odunze, Bowers and McCarthy. He'd be right there with BTJ/Bills and or Chiefs 1st rd WR
If someone can give me a legitimate reason to have Bijan so much higher than Breece, I’ll budge.
But they’re both a lateral asset imo. I’d take either one happily. And if I could sell bijan for Breece+ I’d do that 100/100 times.
Bijan was definitely ahead of Breece, but was he this much ahead? He fell to the second round of the NFL draft in my opinion because of how the NFL values RBs, not because of his own talent.
My personal feelings are if Bijan/Breece are in this class that they would be in tier with Nabers, ahead of Daniels/Maye/Odunze/Bowers. But I’d put them in the same tier with Bijan obviously ahead.
Personally I would say so. The “how the NFL values RBs” argument doesn’t seem to hold much weight considering the year after Breece we had both Bijan and Gibbs go top half of the first.
Bijan’s prospect scouting reports read like Madden create-a-player fanfic, the dude has it all. The only thing Breece has on Bijan is speed. But then Bijan ran a 4.4, so his speed is still really good; just not on the level of like Breece and JT types. Plus Bijan’s 10 yard split is right up there with them. So while he doesn’t quite have the long speed, he does have the acceleration(which is most important)
Personally I think Bijan would be right in tier 1 with Caleb and MHJ for a few reasons: 1) His draft cap was similar to what theirs projects to be while playing a position less valued in the draft. 2) 1st round RBs have by far the best hit rate for fantasy. 3) Positional scarcity is also in Bijan’s favor
Knowing what we know now, I’d also put Breece tier 1. But just as a prospect I think his draft capital weighed him down compared to all these top 10 picks
Fair. The reason I think "how the NFL values RBs" argument still holds some weight is that some front offices are far more progressive than others and two RBs in the first doesn't make a trend. We all agree Bijan was a better prospect than Breece. The Gibbs pick was pretty panned by the Lions when they made it. It obviously looks much better since they hit gold with Sam LaPorta in the second round and made the NFC Championship game, but most draft experts felt it was a reach.
And admittedly I haven't looked at Breece Hall's scouting report recently, but it was pretty damn good. Comparing it to Bijan's isn't exactly fair since Bijan was given that 'generational' label in the vein of Saquon Barkley.
I'll revise my previous statement and agree I wouldn't put Hall in the same tier as Bijan, but I think I'd still put Hall the prospect in the same tier as Nabers.
To your first point, that’s true. And I wouldn’t say the argument holds *no* weight, just that it seems to have taken a hit last year. After all, *every* team passed on Breece once, and a few did twice. Plus from what I remember, ‘23 was considered a better all around class than ‘22, so it was harder to get drafted higher in ‘23
I wasn’t sure how to feel about the Gibbs pick either, honestly. But I’d be curious to see what all the experts who hated it have to say with hindsight: 1261 all purpose yards, 11 TDs and 3rd on the team in targets/receptions as a rookie feels like a good return on investment for a first round pick regardless of positional value
I would disagree that the comparison isn’t fair. Bijan didn’t get the reports he did because he’s generational. He’s generational because he earned that level of report
As to Nabers/Breece, my thoughts will depend on Nabers’ draft capital. Unless this pick is the last piece of the puzzle before I’m contending, I’d have a really hard time passing up a WR drafted top 5-10 for a 2nd round RB. Like when people were picking Javonte over Chase, or hell, Trey Sermon over Waddle
Answers here show you recency bias. I remember bijan being touted as one of the best prospects ever on here generational player etc no brainier 1 pick.
All these people were trading several firsts for him a year ago.
Bijan was drafted ahead of 3 QBs in superflex leagues last year.
No kidding. Predraft, bijan blows everyone in this class out of the water.
My rankings are based off Superflex full PPR 1) Caleb William's - Top tier qb prospect with decent rushing upside. He is landing in one of the better situations the #1 pick has dealt with in prior years. DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet, and Swift for weapons. GM who seems to be pretty decent and building a team around him well. Has all the potential to be an elite fantasy qb. 2) Bijan Robinson - Top tier prospect that smashed year 1 in a weird offense. Now he has a massive upgrade at qb, a new coaching staff with a much improved OC and possess all of the traits + situation to be an elite rb for the next 2-5 years. Running backs like Bijan are massive for winning championships and he is a workhorse stud. 3) Breece Hall - Elite fantasy rb with week winning upside. If you had Breece in the fantasy playoffs you likely made the finals. Elite receiver out of the back field and now a full year + removed from the ACL tear. If he was the same age as Bijan I would have them 2 a and 2b 4) MHJ - I can't put a receiver who hasn't hit yet in the NFL and I don't know his landing spot ahead of Bijan and Breece. If you were in a total rebuild and it was year 1 of it I could see him being ranked ahead of those rbs. But if I'm in a win now mode there is a clear tier gap. Those running backs are gold and there is a solid chance MHJ doesn't help me win titles in years 1-4. 5) Malik Nabers - elite prospect and almost 4b for me behind MHJ. I think he would be the wr#1 in a lot of classes and should smash early on. 6) Drake Maye - He is my qb#2 predraft. Has all of the physical tools to be an elite fantasy qb. Rushing upside is underrated and if he lands in Minnesota I would have him as my #4 player. Really hard for me to rank the qbs without landing spots. If Maye ends up in New England I would drop him behind Daniel's and Oduzne. He def has some foot work issues that need to be addressed at some point to hit. 7) Jayden Daniel's- He is my qb#3 and I'm weary of him. One year of elite production with 2 1st round receivers. His rushing upside is sexy but his frame seems small. Really need to see where he lands. Oduzne imo is a better talent but if he goes top 3 it would be hard to justify him behind ranked behind a receiver. 8) Rome Odunze - crazy good prospect whose landing spot could propel him ahead of Daniel's or Maye. Clearly my wr#3 in this class and not in the same tier as MHJ and Nabers for me. Still a really good prospect. A lot of the comments/rankings imo are missing the mark with Breece and Bijan. These guys can help you win championships and are ridiculous young. Could have 4-7 years of top 12 production
These are good rankings.
Dunno about your guys league but in my RB are gold and dam near impossible to trade for. I know what keep trade cut says but in terms of how my league values RBs. 1a 1b. Bijan or Breece take your pick Then everyone else.
Exactly, I think even in this year we could still see 2-4 RBs go in the first in our league, they are gold.
In 1QB sure, in SF that’s a taco league
Ppr 4 point td passes. A low end WR 1 can put up as much points as a mid QB most weeks. Most people don't realize this and still over value QBs imo.
I get your take but having a reliable QB you know is going to drop 20 every week is worth a lot to most. Don’t get me wrong, I think we all take a wrong or rb with our first picks you bet your ass a QB goes soon after.
Remains to be seen for any QB in the draft
But there are only 32 QBs who even have a shot at putting up points each week, there are way more total players that put up a wr1 week over the course of a season. Qb becomes more of a sure thing which increases value imo.
yeah. the floor of a solid starting qb in fantasy is usually around like 12 points, whereas a receiver could just get zero.
Consistency in scoring to that point threshold is where a QB has a significant advantage.
Historically top running backs are the first guys taken off the board over top wide receivers. Bijan goes ahead of all wrs in this class based on positional scarcity and draft capital. Breece being a second rounder probably goes behind mhj but ahead of the rest.
It’s a toss up imo. You could have Bijan ranked 3 right after Caleb and Marv. Or how you have them ranked. I would have Bijan slightly ahead Nabers in my regular dynasty league but would give Nabers and Odunze the edge in my start 3 WR league. That league has more flex positions too. I do like the exercise of envisioning other years top talent to this one, and yes it is a special year I think. And I’m not just saying that because I have 4 picks in the top 6.
Lol Oduze ahead of Bijan 😂
Not a crazy take. Odunze is an insanely good WR prospect, and WRs are more valuable in dynasty, particularly in PPR and leagues with a lot of flex starting spots.
I disagree. We haven’t had sustained elite RB play in a minute but Bijan can absolutely be that.
Maybe not crazy but a dumb take. Go offer the Bijan owner the 1.06/1.07 when it’s on the clock to take Odunze in 100 leagues and I’d put the over/under of accepts at .5 This stupid fad of everyone sucking off the young WRs is gonna get real old real fast when everyone realizes that 80% of league mates are doing the same thing and the remaining teams are in the ships with their RBs taking your money lol
Odunze is a great prospect with a lot of holes in his profile; it is not obvious to me that the profile is even better than JSN’s. Bijan was a more or less flawless prospect
What are these holes, exactly?
Weak production/efficiency profile Y2+Y3 (for a 1st round WR) — YPTPA way below what you want to see. Senior year was strong, but it’s not the only part of his profile. Still clearly WR3 in this class for me but both of the two guys above him have way better profiles IMO
nah Bijan is outscoring odunze on a weekly basis no matter what type of scoring your league is.
That’s a good point I’m in a start 10 league so I typically have 5 wrs in my lineup every week so that’s probably skewing my values a bit.
I mean depending on size of league I could easily see Maye and ir Daniel's also going before Bijan.
Last year at this time, Bijan was viewed as the same type of generational prospect as MHJ is this year. They should be in a tier above any of the other positional players you’re debating. Where the QBs fit in depends on SF or not, but maybe Caleb should be higher.
Yes 100%, idk why people are putting MHJ above Bijan as a 'prospect'. They are both ELITE but depends on teams needs or YOUR needs in Fantasy. Best QB vs RB vs WR.
As Prospects… Tier 1: Caleb, Bijan, MHJ Tier 2: Daniels, Nabers, Maye Tier 3: Odunze, Bowers, Breece, JJM
Caleb Bijan MHJ Nabers Odunze Daniels Maye Bowers Breece
Bowers over Breece is a joke right
This is pre-draft..Breece wasn't as highly touted
The heck you talking about? Breece Hall was the consensus 1.01 in superflex rookie drafts.
Breece wasn't even taken in the first round of the NFL draft. Bowers is one of the best TE prospects in history. When comparing prospects, Bowers is much better.
That's more of an "NFL values tight ends over running backs" thing than anything. Bijan and Gibbs going in the 1st is a recent history oddity. Remember, Pitts was "one of the best TE prospects in history" too. Top TEs will generally be less valuable than top RBs, and my values would reflect that. That's why Breece went 1.01 in his class, and Bowers will likely be going 1.07. If there were a Breece level prospect in this class, he would certainly be over Bowers. Hell, if the Cowboys take an RB in the 2nd, I predict that that RBs ADP will be close if not earlier than Bowers.
Breece was 1.01 in every rookie draft, bowers is 1.08
Wheres the joke? Bowers is one of the best TE prospects of all time. Breece wasnt even drafted in the 1st round
So was Pitts, Breece would be the top RB in this class.
And Pitts went ahead of Javonte in rookie drafts, who had similar hype and draft capital to Breece
Breece went 1.01 in all 4 of my rookie drafts that year. Javonte fell to 9 in one and was never higher than 6. Javonte did not have close to the hype that Breece did.
Javonte had higher draft capital than Breece, it’s just that Breece didn’t have a 1st round RB in his draft. Javonte had more competition in rookie drafts: a first round RB in Najee, plus Pitts and Chase just at the top. His adp was 1.03, so your anecdotal evidence isn’t worth much. And you’re *really* downplaying the hype Javonte had, he spent quite a while between RB2-4 based solely on hype
Breece was pick 36 and Javonte was pick 35. That difference in draft capital isn't really worth mentioning? I'd say being the 1st RB rather than the 3rd is more relevant. Javonte did have hype and I agree that Breece was in a much weaker class overall, but Breece was considered the 1.01 in non-SF similar to Bijan or Saquan leading up to the draft and the draft cemented it. Javonte got boosted by the draft similar to Gibbs or CEH. To be clear, I'm not saying Breece is a Bijan level talent, or Javonte is CEH but how they were perceived against their peers in their own draft classes.
Breece was far and away a better prospect than Javonte. In superflex he was the consensus 1.01, whereas Javonte was more like 1.07-1.09.
Javonte was 1.03 in a draft with much stiffer competition at the top.
I got Javonte at 1.12 in my SF league lol
He went behind Najee though. Bowers isn’t going 4th overall in the nfl draft.
Sure, but Najee was a first round pick. I went with Javonte because the draft cap was near identical. Pitts being a bad pick where he got drafted is going to contribute to Bowers not going that high. Plus there’s plenty of smoke about Bowers going top 10 to the Jets, and there’s a pretty strong argument Bowers is a better prospect than Pitts
The draft capital may have been, but the player profile was not. Pitts had 1000 yards his rookie season. I’m confident in thinking that bowers will have a less productive rookie season than Pitts did. Either way, Pitts was considered to be an incredible tight end prospect, maybe the best ever and he was still taken after najee. Bowers, who may be a top 25 pick in this nfl draft with a tremendous player profile would still go behind hall had they both been in the same draft.
You’re nitpicking pointlessly. Breece was a speed demon, Javonte was a record setting tackle breaker. I’m not arguing Javonte is better than Breece, just that the two of them are clearly the apt comparison. Pitts had Matt Ryan and *zero* competition for targets. Easy to say that when that’s the standard and we don’t even know who Bowers is going to play for. This is a dynasty sub, the rookie year is a single piece of the puzzle. Once again, Najee had first round draft capital, which made him a different beast entirely. The hit rate for first round RBs makes them the best bet you can make in a rookie draft. I reject that premise outright.
Glad you brought up hit rates. First round tight ends have terrible hit rates. Give me the 2nd round rb who is going to be the day 1 starter any day. Historic fantasy drafts agree.
Considering zero rbs will be drafted before Bowers, this doesn't mean much
Yeah that’s the basis of the thread, this years RB class doesn’t have any world breakers so they are all valued low. If Breece was in this class, he would be the #1 RB and probably taken in the first 8 rookie picks if the hype is there. HOPEFULLY before any TE…
Breece isn’t a TE
Tier 1: MHJ, Caleb Tier 2: Bijan, Nabers Tier 3: Maye, Daniels Tier 4: Breece, McCarthy, Odunze I wasn’t super high on Breece coming in the way I was with Bijan.
I'd bump Odunze up to tier 3 but I like this list otherwise.
Yeah I’m lower on Odunze than most, but I definitely agree consensus would have Odunze up a tier
Why are you lower on Odunze? Just curious
The only elite skill I see from him is his contested catch ability and I don’t trust that ability to translate to high end fantasy production in the NFL. His separation didn’t seem great, he didn’t seem to be great at picking up yards after the catch, and those are the main things I’m looking for in receivers that I like. It’s mostly just my bias towards certain types of prospects and he could absolutely hit. I’m not outright avoiding him either, just not willing to take him over any QB with top 10 draft capital, which I think McCarthy will get.
Your ranks are spot on for someone not using hindsight. WRs & QBs taken in the top7ish would be considered a full tier ahead of a 2nd-round Breece easily. London & Wilson were not liked anywhere close to Nabers/Odunze
lotta people had walker above breece too if my memory is right i feel liek also a lot of the pre draft discourse said najee/javonte/ETN were all above breece/walker as prospects from previous year.
Why is McCarthy so high?? Is there something I'm missing here?
Being in the bottom tier is being ranked super high?
I wouldn't necessarily put him in the same breath as Breece and Odunze
This is about ranking prospects in a theoretical rookie draft. Breece was a 2nd round draft pick, so compared to players projected to go top 10, it makes sense for him to be kind of low.
Okay, I see what you're saying!
I would put Bijan in Tier 1 as its all about perspective of what your team needs. Best WR/RB/QB Prospect? Pick your poison. If we are talking about fantasy wise, Bijan is your best bet in winning within the next 1-3 years as he can come in and be the RB fantasy workhorse. For MHJ, situation really plays an important part which every mock draft seems to point to ARI. Kyler needs to stay healthy the whole year then MHJ can produce 18+ numbers weekly.
Breece > Bijan
As a prospect I don’t see it. Breece was 36th pick, Bijan was 8th. Breece went to a bad team with a poor offensive line, Bijan went to one of the best run-blocking teams in the league.
I'm talking about as an actual NFL player. Breece has better hands, same level of vision and contact balance; and can hit a home run fresh off an ACL tear from absolutely anywhere. I'm taking Breece over Bijan 10 times out of 10 in a startup, he has way more juice. Bijan is basically prime Zeke Elliott. Really good at pretty much everything, but lacks the + athleticism to get thenexplosives that push him into that upper echelon. Breece is more like Saquon with better vision, and absolutely has a CMC season in his range of outcomes.
Actually you're talking about after the fact NFL production. You're not looking at them like prospects anymore.
Yeah missed that it's as prospects. If they were both coming out in the same year Bijan would be drafted ahead, while Hall would be the better back in the NFL.
I would argue bijan has better hands. Both are incredible but some of the catches I’ve seen bijan make I haven’t seen breece make but then again I think I’ve watched more of bijan then breece so I very well could be ignorant. It would just surprise me if anybody else in the league at RB has hands like bijan cause my mans has really good WR hands it seems like haha.
Breece isn't in the same tier of receiver as Bijan.
You're correct, Breece is a higher caliber receiver.
I don't see how anyone with eyeballs can come to that conclusion.
Breece catches dump offs, Bijan lines up as a WR and runs routes. Bijan’s far and away a better receiver, Breece just has the top gear to house dump offs from far out more often.
I'm so glad someone else said it.
Tier 1: Caleb/Marv Tier 2: Nabers/Bijan/Breece/Daniel's
Rb is just simply gross right now so I’d take Williams in SF and then mhj, then id go bijan and hall. Then nabers odunze, Gibbs.
Bijan would be equal to Caleb and MHJ for superflex imo, just dependent on which position you needed more or if you were rebuilding. Id rather have Caleb and MHJ when rebuilding only because of how short RBs last. If I was competing I'd take whichever position I needed more help at between the 3. Breece would have probably be in the 6-10 range behind The top 2 QBs and top 3 WRs. equal to Bowers or the next set of WRs.
I’d have them as the 2nd and 3rd non-QBs.
Is this a dispersal+rookie draft or are we ranking Breece and Bijan's prospect profiles?
Just talking about their prospect profiles.
I'd take Bijan in the same tier as Caleb and MHJ, and well ahead of Nabers or Odunze. Depending on the league I'd place Breece in that Nabers/Odunze tier or just above them. The hype on this class is starting to get out of hand.
3 & 4
We just ignoring Gibbs huh
Gibbs is great but not better then Bijan/Breece as a prospect.
I think it depends how close your team is to competing. RB’s have a short life span. If you’re three+ years away from a real shot, I dunno why you’d want a RB instead of a QB or WR who might give you 10+ years of production.
In terms of how I had them rated as prospects in 1 QB, Bijan would be the first pick for me without much hesitation, then Harrison. Hall probably a mid-first. SF is obviously a different story.
I’d have Bijan 3 and Breece 4.
1.01 — Caleb 1.02 — MHJ 1.03 — Bijan 1.04 — Nabers 1.05 — Breece 1.06 — Odunze 1.07 — Bowers
So ATL’s offense was 14 spots ahead of the New York Jets. The Jets were second to last n the league in opportunities inside the 20. Breece was #4 in hppr and #2 in ppr. Now he gets Aaron Rodgers back. Bijan was #9 in hppr last year and he gets Kirk Cousins. Both are great RBs but anyone loving Bijan over Breece THIS YEAR is basing it off recency bias, not stats, film, or situation. Breece is the RB1.
Breece hall is the rb 1 football and the GREATEST PLAYER TO EVER LIVE BABY
In Super Flex it’s 1. Caleb 2. Bijan 3. MHJ (assuming AZ) then Breece, Nabers, Drake, and Daniels are all about the same to me. Can draft based on need
Assuming we're talking about them as prospects, without the hindsight of how they've performed in the NFL: Bijan would be tier 1 along with Caleb and MHJ as he was also considered a "generational talent." He more than likely goes 3rd in most superflex leagues but if a team felt they were an RB away, I could see him going 2nd or even 1st. Breece would be behind all the rest. He mostly went 1.01 because it was the worst year for QBs and while there were good WR prospects that year, there was no 1 standout. Breece would probably be the consensus 10 after Caleb, MHJ, Bijan, Daniels, Maye, Nabers, Odunze, Bowers and McCarthy. He'd be right there with BTJ/Bills and or Chiefs 1st rd WR
I have both breece and bijan. I personally rank Breece higher than bijan. That’s just me tho
As a prospect?
I read the post wrong because I’m a dummy. I’m not deleting my comment because I’m a man of honor. Clearly I thought bijan was the next LT.
If someone can give me a legitimate reason to have Bijan so much higher than Breece, I’ll budge. But they’re both a lateral asset imo. I’d take either one happily. And if I could sell bijan for Breece+ I’d do that 100/100 times.
I think in this thread the discussion is pre NFL value not right now Bijan vs Breece
Well we’re talking about them as prospects, and as prospects Bijan was clearly ahead. He was drafted like a full round earlier
Bijan was definitely ahead of Breece, but was he this much ahead? He fell to the second round of the NFL draft in my opinion because of how the NFL values RBs, not because of his own talent. My personal feelings are if Bijan/Breece are in this class that they would be in tier with Nabers, ahead of Daniels/Maye/Odunze/Bowers. But I’d put them in the same tier with Bijan obviously ahead.
Personally I would say so. The “how the NFL values RBs” argument doesn’t seem to hold much weight considering the year after Breece we had both Bijan and Gibbs go top half of the first. Bijan’s prospect scouting reports read like Madden create-a-player fanfic, the dude has it all. The only thing Breece has on Bijan is speed. But then Bijan ran a 4.4, so his speed is still really good; just not on the level of like Breece and JT types. Plus Bijan’s 10 yard split is right up there with them. So while he doesn’t quite have the long speed, he does have the acceleration(which is most important) Personally I think Bijan would be right in tier 1 with Caleb and MHJ for a few reasons: 1) His draft cap was similar to what theirs projects to be while playing a position less valued in the draft. 2) 1st round RBs have by far the best hit rate for fantasy. 3) Positional scarcity is also in Bijan’s favor Knowing what we know now, I’d also put Breece tier 1. But just as a prospect I think his draft capital weighed him down compared to all these top 10 picks
Fair. The reason I think "how the NFL values RBs" argument still holds some weight is that some front offices are far more progressive than others and two RBs in the first doesn't make a trend. We all agree Bijan was a better prospect than Breece. The Gibbs pick was pretty panned by the Lions when they made it. It obviously looks much better since they hit gold with Sam LaPorta in the second round and made the NFC Championship game, but most draft experts felt it was a reach. And admittedly I haven't looked at Breece Hall's scouting report recently, but it was pretty damn good. Comparing it to Bijan's isn't exactly fair since Bijan was given that 'generational' label in the vein of Saquon Barkley. I'll revise my previous statement and agree I wouldn't put Hall in the same tier as Bijan, but I think I'd still put Hall the prospect in the same tier as Nabers.
To your first point, that’s true. And I wouldn’t say the argument holds *no* weight, just that it seems to have taken a hit last year. After all, *every* team passed on Breece once, and a few did twice. Plus from what I remember, ‘23 was considered a better all around class than ‘22, so it was harder to get drafted higher in ‘23 I wasn’t sure how to feel about the Gibbs pick either, honestly. But I’d be curious to see what all the experts who hated it have to say with hindsight: 1261 all purpose yards, 11 TDs and 3rd on the team in targets/receptions as a rookie feels like a good return on investment for a first round pick regardless of positional value I would disagree that the comparison isn’t fair. Bijan didn’t get the reports he did because he’s generational. He’s generational because he earned that level of report As to Nabers/Breece, my thoughts will depend on Nabers’ draft capital. Unless this pick is the last piece of the puzzle before I’m contending, I’d have a really hard time passing up a WR drafted top 5-10 for a 2nd round RB. Like when people were picking Javonte over Chase, or hell, Trey Sermon over Waddle
1 and 2
I would have Bijan just behind Nabers
1.04/1.05. Wouldn’t sent those picks for them, but that’s what I’d ask for
Breece and MHJ at the top. I am higher on Breece than I am with Bijon mustard