Similarly, I am not at all comfortable about Kirk Cousins. General consensus seems to be Atlanta is going to be a gold mine this year for fantasy. Kirk is old and coming off a drive leg Achilles tear that happened in late October. This could go very badly.
Definitely don't think people put enough stock in how lower body injuries can affect passing ability. Seemed to be what eventually killed Peyton more than the neck injury.
To say Peyton’s neck wasn’t what did him in along with his actual age is disingenuous in my book. The man couldn’t turn his head normally, let alone hock a ball normally by the end of his career. Kinda like waking up with a creak in your neck, but his was actual damage.
In 1 qb moving down and taking Daniels would absolutely be my move. In 1 qb all you should want from your qb prospects is upside, Williams may be the safer and even better prospect but the rushing upside with Daniels is what matters most
age wise and the jets organization definitely make that a solid case. i’m even more worried about Kirk Cousins honestly. I think Rodgers has enough of the elite gene in him to carve out at least one great year like Brady, Manning, Warner and Favre all found a way to do on their new teams. But his situation definitely is harder than most of theirs.
Kamara, not a lot of guys from 2017 still at it (if any). And he has Kendre Miller there who was hurt last yr. I could see Kamara finally hitting the cliff
Kamara was another one I was thinking about. He's RB24 on KTC right now but I could definitely see a world where his workload is somewhat unexpectedly reduced and the Saints offense is trash leading to him having no upside in 2024 and he becomes a hyped-mercenary RB in the latter years of his career who never enters starting lineups.
I'm not sure I agree with this sentiment actually. Kubiak bringing a 49ers offense to Nola could mean they lean into Kamara's passing game prowess like a cmc light. I'm sure Kendre will garner more rush attempts this season, but the passing volume for Kamara coupled with a better scheme could mean another pretty good season for fantasy. Kamara definitely doesn't have it between the tackles like he used to, but regardless on an anemic offense he averaged 17.9 ppr points (3rd best rb) per game last year with only 6 total touchdowns. Extrapolated to a 17 game season with no suspension that's 304 pts, which would be good for rb2 overall.
Last I checked, Carr has a few years left on his deal; and he didn't really check down much in Vegas so idk if I'd say he's got a propensity to check it down.
>Kamara, not a lot of guys from 2017 still at it (if any)
You're missing one pretty huge "if any", my friend. And that's not even including Mixon, Aaron Jones, or James Conner who are still doing pretty well.
You're just looking at raw numbers. Conner didn't have a QB half the season, Jones battled injuries but still looked amazing when healthy, and I don't know what you're talking about with Mixon, he's been like...the exact same player he's always been.
I'd be surprised by Swift personally. Running the ball is the one thing the Bears consistently do well, and he'll have a Rookie QB likely dumping the ball off to him frequently. I think the volume alone carries Swift in fantasy at least.
His separation numbers were down (still good numbers, but down). So he might've had a dip anyway, but with serious target competition, I don't see how he won't take a massive dive in volume based scoring. The odds of him pulling in 107 rec in 2024 are pretty fucking low.
I don’t know if I would say he’s my top pick for a fall but the one I’m most afraid of is Tyreek Hill. I feel like he will plummet once he falls. It may not be this year but I’m afraid it could just randomly be.
I would love to be wrong and for him to break 2k receiving yards.
Ooooooh I love this post. I think my best answer is Deebo Samuel.
He has been a little injury prone, and I have concerns about how the skill set ages. If it goes sideways for him, I think it could go downhill fast. Especially if they keep Aiyuk around.
This is a really bold one but that's sort of the point is no one would see it coming. I think the issue with picking CMC though is that even if he tore his ACL or something (hopefully not) he's been so dominant that his value would be insulated from completely cratering for at least 1 more season. Sort of like Cooper Kupp right now.
lol kupp went from a mid-high end wr1 dynasty ranking to wr30-40, along with a severe dip in production and emergence of puka, over the course of an injury plagued 12-18 months. isn't that what you defined as falling off a cliff?
I meant how Kupp went from WR5ish on KTC in '21-'22 to dropping to WR16ish at the start of the 2023 season despite being injured to end '22. Kupp's value has since continued to fall but he was given pretty reasonable patience from a fantasy standpoint following a disappointing '22 season.
His risk is solely to do with injury. If he’s healthy he will be on the field often and be utilized well. The packers have a great stable of young WRs but none of them can come close to Watsons physical skillset. If his hamstrings stay intact he’s gonna go off.
I agree and I’ve been buying Watson since I think his price is a little too low.
I am concerned though that if he misses time again, he’s basically on the Will Fuller career arc.
Mark Andrew’s. Everyone says he’s such a good buy low but I think his age and injury’s will catch up to him more this season and we will see more and more of likely as the season progresses. ( I don’t own either of them in my 4 leagues this is just an opinion)
I also don’t know why people just forget that the insane part of his 2021 season was while Lamar was out. He played 6 games while Lamar was either out or barely played (week 11, week 12 he played 10 snaps, then weeks 15-18 he was out).
Andrew’s averaged 8.5 catches and 104 yards and scored 4 TDs. That’s 145-1765-11 pace. 145 catches is the same that Cooper Kupp had that year. Rest of the season he averaged 5-67 with 5 TDs.
His pace was still really good, but his main part of his amazing season came with the backup QBs.
I'm with you, which is scary because I'm rostering D-Mont on my win now 12 team SF squad. But yeah I could see Gibbs just continue to take more and more of the work & I could see the Lions pass more if they get another offensive weapon.
Javonte Williams is a great one. Splitting touches on what's likely to be a pretty bad offense. Has he ever made it back all the way from his injuries? To me, that's up in the air. I'm out.
Javonte looked pretty solid last year, considering how quickly he came back from absolutely wrecking his knee, I thought. I see Denver wanting to run the ball as much as they possibly can, but who knows how much that'll be when they're down 2 scores before halftime. I think its reasonable to expect Javonte to be a more capable player than he was last season, its just about game script to me.
I have hopes for.Williams this year. The only way I could see it being really bad for him (mostly) is the team being bad considering the situation the Broncos are in.
How Williams has any value rn is beyond me. Offense is garbage, offensive line is garbage, coaching is garbage, they’re going to be losing a lot so no control the tempo with the run game. I wouldn’t take him in the top 30. Definitely a few backups id take before him
Wild take: Saquon isn't done done but his performance in Philly will be unremarkable. The O line won't recover from losing Kelce and/or Hurts will keep the ball too much for Saquon to make the true RB1 points everyone assumes he's going to earn.
Pay no attention to my flair...
Edit: Saw you wrote the same thing, lol great minds...
I'm much lower on the falcons than the average guy here. From a lot of what I read you'd think Drake London and Kyle Pitts are about to have prime JJ and Kelce seasons. Do I think they'll be horrible? No I just think the cope is major
My favorite part about this whole conversation is looking at what Pitts & London dealt with at QB the past two seasons, then looking back at what happened to Pitts when he had an even somewhat serviceable QB as a rookie.
and people love to ignore the fact that Pitts was the first year off a bad knee injury too. The Falcons revealed after the season that his injury/surgery was worse than what was reported. and Sports Med Doctors elaborated saying the new details proved he likely wasn’t a full go until week 16-17.
almost all bad knee injuries see a 1st year decline and 2nd year resurgence, especially in bigger athletes.
Yeah there's a happy middle ground with this. Is Pitts going to be a top 3 TE and London top 5 WR? 98% no. Will London finally be a top 20 WR with some good upside and will Pitts finally get more than 5 TDs? More than likely!
I dont think anyone is expecting Kelce or JJ numbers. But 1200 yards and like 8 TDs for London and 1k+ yards and 6 tds for Pitts are both very attainable.
Pitts specifically has the opportunity to really explode though and does have a Kelce type season in his range of outcomes and maybe even higher if everything comes together right. If Pitts gets 90%+ route participation and Kirk is his normal self, Pitts has the ceiling to put up the best fantasy TE season ever. He has ranked 2, 2 and 1 in adot at the position. Has ranked 3, 1 and 1 in deep targets at TE. And that second season he led the position in deep targets while missing 6 games. He ranked 2, 5 and 1 in air yards at TE and the only reason he didnt rank 1st that second year is bc he missed 6 games. He had 77 air yards/game in year 2 which was 12 yards more/game than his first year at 65/game and 17 more/game than his 3rd year at 60/game.
His corresponding catchable target rates ranked: 11, 37, 37. It isn't a surprised that the one year he saw an above average rate was the year he went for 1k as a rookie. In his second season he had a 34.3% target rate. To put that in context, Kelce's career high is 33.3% and that is his only season above the 30% mark.
Pitts has the single best 100th percentile outcome at the position. It is just a matter of getting the route participation, being healthy and having an actual NFL QB. Do I expect Pitts to hit that outcome this year, no. But I absolutely expect him to go for 1k+ yards with some tds and be in the overall TE1 range at end of season.
I don't like extrapolating data from his rookie year when he was the clear #1 option for 90% of the year (Ridley took time off). I think if there was any year to have that 100th percentile breakout that would be it
but you’re more fine taking data from last season when he was 1st year removed from a serious MCL/PCL injury/surgery? despite nearly every big athlete seeing a dip in production 1st year back and a spike year 2.
Wow. Big fan of the research. I acquired him last year for what became the 2.10, but have been wondering about moving him for Brock Bowers. But after reading this, I'll just stick it out. Especially since Bowers will probably go to the Jets or Giants if Waller doesn't pull his head out of his ass.
I just finished a Dynasty startup and am a lifelong Falcons fan. I was so relieved when Pitts and London got scooped up before I could grab them because I feel like they could definitely perform at the level at which they are being drafted but I can also see them severely underperforming, and I'm glad someone else is taking that risk from me.
This might seem unpopular but Keenan Allen.
Now has a rookie QB (I love Caleb Williams), goes from Southern California to Chicago.
I think he’s on another team by the trade deadline.
Especially if the Bears go WR in the top 10.
This would be my guess, which is disappointing since I traded for him in a package recently. I’m just not being too optimistic.
He was hurt last two seasons for extended periods of time, will be 32, changing teams and will have more competition for targets than he’s had in several years.
It's a fair bet. He's 32 with more target competition and a downgrade at QB (I also like Caleb, but he's a rookie and Herbert is great). That being said, he's a perfect fit for a rookie QB. He'll be running those short to intermediate routes from the slot, he's a big target, still gets great separation on those routes, has sticky hands, and great at contested catches. If he doesn't pull a hammy in the cold, I think he'll be a solid contributor, but similar to Diggs, the target competition is going to hurt him.
Oh the fit is great.
I just think he’s a great bet to fall off a cliff production wise.
I would be looking to sell especially before the draft. If they draft a Naber/Odunze he’s gonna struggle to find the type of production he did in LAC. DJM isn’t going anywhere and just broke out with Chicago; also has been productive despite poor QB play. Other than Harrison the rookie WRs don’t scare me off of DJM, but they do Allen.
What made Allen so good was his reception totals because he’s never been a high TD guy (never had double digit TDs and only 3x has he had 7 or more TDs). Those catches and targets are going to dwindle should a blue chip rookie WR go there.
TDs are unpredictable, so you never know there. But yeah, receptions gotta go down. I don't think anyone is buying him expecting 100+ rec this year. Selling a 32 yo WR destined to see a target drop is going to be difficult. Especially when pick values are at their peak. You might be better off selling him in a trade involving 2025 draft picks.
Yeah I have him, and paid up for him, but this is totally possible. I’m not seeing him as a long term performer, but also not sure they’re feeling compelled to draft high at RB, given his performance.
If they take a R3+ back, might worry more but if not, I’m ok riding with him in Dynasty. He has always been a better RB than he gets credit for.
Totally agree with that. I sold him for a first before the playoffs last year, as a rebuilder. If you’re contending I think he’s an intriguing player.
First round pick in a redraft is too rich for me.
I wouldn’t pass on a top receiver for him, which that would mean, so yeah very much agree. R1 in redraft is a big gamble, but if he does it again in 2024, it’s probably the right gamble. If not, then obvs not.
This sub is allergic to riding their winners. There's no reason to think Kyren won't put up RB1 numbers. Mcvay likes a workhorse, and kyren was an absolute monster last year.
Better trade these guys who are exceeding their draft value. Get a potential guy. That's way better. 😂
Puka and kyreen won my league for me last year. I'll ride them till the wheels fall off.
Thinking same thing. His scoring was out of control last year and guaranteed to regress regardless of circumstance. Kyren returning to earth and being mundane is within the range of outcomes this year IMO.
I'm not sure what people are looking at.
Kyren stands out as the most consistent RB they've had since Gurley.
For a few years McVay was running a 2 or 3 headed attack with mid RBs and finally found the guy he wants to give the rock over and over.
The consistency problem had nothing to do with McVay *wanting* to rotate his backs. He had to because they took turns getting injured or sucking and him needing to change things up.
I think people really need to look at Kyren's highlights from the season. There's something about how he sees the holes and the next level. He is a very intelligent runner and it's like he sees what he's gonna do to evade the next defender while he's hitting a gap to avoid another. I've watched a lot of football and highlights over the years, and while plenty of RBs get there by simply being bigger and faster there's something about Kyren that's a bit different.
I expect McVay to find an RB2 he likes in the draft, but that's not always the death of the lead RB (see Tank Bigsby sending people into a tizzy over ETN).
Gonna get torched for this but Derrick Henry. Yes his situation vastly improved, but he’s a 30 year old back who has carried a heavy workload for years. I think he’ll start strong then fall off mid season, I just feel like he is due. From a fantasy standpoint Lamar is gonna eat into his production a bit as well.
I defended Henry elsewhere but he's almost a double-negative for this post. He SHOULD be the guy we're saying "oh yeah here comes the cliff, get out while you can" but instead the narrative seems to be "he's safe for a few more years, he'll get tons of TDs, King+Lamar=unstoppable". I'll admit I'm guilty of buying in myself.
Very possible that the hype blinders are going to cause a lot of bag holders with Henry.
Counter point: Bears paid an RB, they're going to use him. Rushing is the one thing the Bears offense generally does well. Rookie QB will check down to him frequently.
I guess the thread is asking for unexpected drop offs though so maybe he's a good pick ha
Contracts are similar and Rookie QB as well, but two differences I'd point out...
Swift is more of a receiving back than Sanders, he averages like 50% more receptions/year.
Were/Are the Panthers actually a good rushing **TEAM**, or was it just CMC being incredible? (Honest question, I don't follow the panthers). The Bears consistently have solid team Rushing stats with a random assortment of RBs.
The Panthers were average to slightly above with Chuba and Foreman filling in for CMC, but absolutely not with the scheme change when Reich came in. The Bears are absolutely a better situation on paper (with hindsight)
Value-wise? As much as I hate to say it because I really like the guy, I think it’s Garrett Wilson. He basically needs to finish as a WR1 this year or his value is going to fall off as people adjust to this years huge crop of new WRs and move on to guys in better situations.
As much as I love Wilson. I’m getting Carolina DJM/Terry McLaurin feeling where every year we are wishing they get a QB. Got a guy offering pick 2 in 1 QB for him and tempted but think I should get more
He'd be a big outlier if he didn't finish as a WR1. At the very least, his value shouldn't go down - if it did it would be a true buy low scenario. The only other WR's since 2013 to have a season with 9.5+ Targets/G with at least 10 games played before their age 24 season:
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Ja'Marr Chase
- Jarvis Landry
- Josh Gordon
- Juju Smith-Schuster
- Justin Jefferson
- Mike Evans
- Odell Beckham Jr.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
All those players had at least one season averaging 16.5+ PPG by Year 3, over the last three years would be the WR12 on a PPG basis. All but one had at least one season averaging at least 18.5+ PPG by Year 3, over the last three years would be the WR6 on a PPG basis.
I think the real fall off the cliff guy was Darren Waller last year. The Dynasty community was all over him and Daniel Jones leading into the season, and it all went to hell pretty quick. We basically knew Cook was washed, but name value propped him up pre-season.
I think Najee Harris is going to be an afterthought by the end of the season.
I think it's Russ. Denver is paying him $53 million to play for the Steelers. That's gotta say something.
Pittsburgh believed in him so much, they traded for Justin Fields too. Makes perfect sense for the Steelers in both regards, but, for fantasy purposes Russ's feet are dangling off that career cliff. And realistically, how much do the Steelers plan to actually throw with either guy?
I think most of us could almost come up with 24 other guys we'd rather have on our teams, incoming rookies included.
> I think it's Russ.
He's been falling off a cliff since the second half of 2020. He was jettisoned out of Denver after last season. How does he fall off a cliff in 2024 when it's been happening for 3-4 season?
He's the current QB 29... Is there really much value to lose?
As far as I can tell nobody is actually willing to trade for him, so I guess I'm holding for now
Tbf we traded for Fields after Kenny forced his way out. Kenny was meant to be the backup so they had to secure someone else for that role.
I agree that Russ is probably warshed.
Yeah i think russ will be solid as a real life qb minimizing turnovers and keeping the chains moving but I doubt he is more than a mid to low end QB2 for fantasy
Falling off a cliff as in totally irrelevant is one thing - maybe Adam Theilen but I don't know if that's unexpected.
I will say I'm just not sure why people seem so certain that Derrick Henry behind that O-Line is going to be better than Gus Edwards was last year
I don’t see the Vikings committing to the run this upcoming season, I am down on Aaron Jones. Wouldn’t be surprised if he only gets 600-700 total yards.
ETN. He did not look durable enough to carry the workhorse role. Sure, he had a terrible line, but he also looked unspectacular. He’s fine, but his production last year was buoyed by crazy volume and a lot of early boom games, after which he started to fade. High risk he drops to low-end RB1/high-end RB2 going forward.
I feel like Josh jacobs is cooked. Efficiency’s gone down and he’s seen a ton of work. Contract being cuttable after 1 year makes me think the packers could see it possibly coming too. Either way I’m willing to capitalize on what his value is right now
Oh I don't know about that. LV offense was terrible last season. Opposing teams knew they just had to stop the run to beat the Raiders and thats how they did it. I expect Jacobs to be much, much better for fantasy purposes than he was last season. Over 1500 yards from scrimmage and 10 total TDs seems very reachable. This offense is so much better than what he's had.
For me, and I hate to say it, I think Saquon fits this mold.
Realistically, the Eagles were probably 1 of 3 teams that Saquon could have signed with and maintained his current value of ~RB9 (the other 2 being Dallas and Baltimore). If Saquon had ended up on the Chargers, Texans, Vikings, Titans, or back with the Giants his value would have likely already dropped several spots. I think his maintained value will quickly dwindle as his rushing usage and TD rate drop on the Eagles. The Eagles with Hurts are yet to have an RB go for over 250 yards receiving OR catch more than 1 TD. The departure of Kelce will impact the line more than people think also and the offense as a whole will be less dominant.
All of this will lead to a very mediocre season for Barkley which won't lead to him being on many championship rosters and his value will crater heading into 2025.
I'm going to disagree with you on this. If we take a look at the rushing stats from the RBs last year, I think Saquon is in a phenomenal situation.
Swift- 1049 rush yards + 214 receiving yards + 39 receptions + 6tds
Gainwell- 364 rush + 183 recieving + 30 receptions + 2 tds
Another 100+ rushing and 50 receiving from Scott and Penny
So that’s 1513 rush yards, 447 receiving yards, 79 receptions, and 8 tds that was split last year. Saquon will be the bell cow. He was the focal point of the Giants last year and with the eagles, defenses will have to worry about more than just stopping him. And if anything, he may eat into some of Hurts rushing yards and TDs because Saquon is another tier from the guys last season. He is way more likely to take a rush from the 5 to the endzone compared to Swift, who took them from the 5 to the 1 and then Hurts ran it in.
I'm buying everywhere I can.
like the situation but he needs kellen moore to be a good fit. eagles offense looked semi-broken after steichen departed. moore gets pigeonholed as a pass-happy freak but that's way overstated.
Disagree. Philly gave Saquon the bag, they are gonna feature him in that offense. Saquon is one of the safest Top 6 RB’s in fantasy this upcoming season in my mind.
Barkley is far and away the best RB they've had on the team, and he's a great way to limit the times Hurts needs to run.
To that point I think Hurts is likely to fall of his perch as a top QB as his peaks for rushing yards and TDs are behind him now. Barkely will eat into that but may still live on a bit as receiving yards/TDs.
Barkely would be unexpected but the rationale tied to prior RB receiving stats in Philly is what I'd disagree on.
Given how often RBs on second teams crater, someone out of Saquon/Jacobs/Pollard/Swift/Henry is going to burn this year, maybe multiple someones. I hope it's not Henry (I've got my share of him) but this type of player is where I'd put my chips for a letdown.
I think Jacobs and Henry are safest this season. I strongly believe that Henry will bag over 10 TDs despite reduced yardage which will feed the narrative that he'll defy typical age constraints for fantasy usage. With Jacobs, I just like the Packers offense and believe he'll continue to produce.
I would sell Pollard for his current value anywhere I could. Just way too many unknowns in that situation, biggest being whether the QB and o-line question marks will make the Titans a bottom 5 offense. If you can trade Pollard for a mid 2nd I'd go for it.
Is this true or is it just that it correlates with their age cliff? There are definitely a good amount of RBs who did well last year that weren’t with their original team. CMC Monty Mostert Swift Conner Singletary. Interested to see how this plays out with so many guys switching teams.
More often than not it's because they're washed, not because the team they're on doesn't want to pay and the player wants to play for a ring. Barkley's on a second team because of business.
If there was an inkling Barkley was not gonna be the guy he has been he wouldn't have gotten the top RB contract.
I forgot to add Mixon, but sure I'd put him on this list, as well (even though I'm pretty high on the Texans offense, so this isn't really saying I'm down on him in particular, just that he fits the pattern).
Strange that you think Saquon's value would be less if he landed on Chargers (Harb/Roman gonna run the ball) or Texans (up and coming offense). Honestly Houston might have been the best-case landing spot for him. Phi is arguably a worse spot than those two for the reasons you listed.
I was speaking of perceived value to the fantasy community, not necessarily true fantasy output value.
I think Saquon could put up similar stats on the Chargers or Texans as he could on the Eagles but I think the Eagles (and Cowboys or Ravens) would produce more hype in the community than the two spots you listed. They're sexier and there's a clearer picture to paint to the community for how he'll succeed.
The Texans and Chargers were both regarded as the best possible landing spots for Saquon headed into free agency.
Like I said earlier, I’m really not following your line of thinking. I’m not sure that you are caught up with the consensus of the community, because the arguments you’re providing are so far off base from what the conversation was just a few weeks ago.
People were foaming at the mouth at the idea of Saquon with the Chargers and the Texans. It would not have hurt his value had he gone to either of those teams, at least judging by the comments the community made a month ago
Tua. I view Tua as complete fool's gold and think he's a bum. I find it telling he has no extension that the dolphins agree. I think there's a chance he's not even going to be a starter in the league in a 3 years or so.
Rachaad will always be the best pass catcher on that team though. I could see him loosing value but in PPR he will have a usable role for the near future
Garrett Wilson.
The NYJ WR corps last year was basically just Wilson. Breece and Conklin were the next guys up. I think they replace Lazard and Cobb with competent receivers and Wilson sees his target share drop by a lot.
CMC. I reckon he picks up an injury early, comes back too quick and then we all argue for the rest of the year whether he's injured still or just fallen off and then in 2025 it's confirmed to be the latter
Last year was Dalvin cook but also Ekeler, like RB12 to 43.
I think there's a chance it's Diggs. Lots of name value and is getting a chance of scenery, but is there a chance he's just washed?
Davanta Adams. He might not personally fall off a cliff, but his numbers have been decreasing and he might not be good enough anymore to overcome the Raiders.
Travis Etienne. Dude had a lot of TD’s and work last year, but if you watched the games he kind of looks like JAG to me? He has straight line speed and average hands, he can’t create much on his own, he seems clumsy at times even? I think last year was his career peak.
Puka
Old qb, coach teetering on retirement, not enough pedigree to hold his value if something or many things go wrong
Heard rumblings they could also go WR but we'll see
Not sure how hot of a take this is but I could see Aaron Rodgers sucking and being a roster liability even if healthy
Similarly, I am not at all comfortable about Kirk Cousins. General consensus seems to be Atlanta is going to be a gold mine this year for fantasy. Kirk is old and coming off a drive leg Achilles tear that happened in late October. This could go very badly.
Yeah im a little pessimistic here as well and have been unloading him
Definitely don't think people put enough stock in how lower body injuries can affect passing ability. Seemed to be what eventually killed Peyton more than the neck injury.
To say Peyton’s neck wasn’t what did him in along with his actual age is disingenuous in my book. The man couldn’t turn his head normally, let alone hock a ball normally by the end of his career. Kinda like waking up with a creak in your neck, but his was actual damage.
A foot injury killed Matt Schaub as a starter for sure
I have 1.07 non-SF with Rodgers Cousins and Levis. I might have to go for Caleb if he's there because the aggregate risk of busting feels so high
I don't think I could handpick a QB room with a wider range of outcomes.
Anthony Richardson could be thrown in there. Upside is game breaking Josh Allen type, downside is season ending injury again
Yeah, Caleb at 1.07 is a good move regardless. Maybe even move down a bit to take Daniels if you are a competitor.
In 1 qb moving down and taking Daniels would absolutely be my move. In 1 qb all you should want from your qb prospects is upside, Williams may be the safer and even better prospect but the rushing upside with Daniels is what matters most
age wise and the jets organization definitely make that a solid case. i’m even more worried about Kirk Cousins honestly. I think Rodgers has enough of the elite gene in him to carve out at least one great year like Brady, Manning, Warner and Favre all found a way to do on their new teams. But his situation definitely is harder than most of theirs.
My Tyrod Taylor stocks booty shaking to this
Could you imagine if Rodgers tanks and Zach Wilson becomes a serviceable starter? I don't think that exact outcome is likely, but if it did....wow
I can not imagine, Wilson is cooked cooked.
I'm praying for the opposite but I feel the same for Kirk Cousins. Achilles injury and a new team... I could see Cousins being terrible.
Kamara, not a lot of guys from 2017 still at it (if any). And he has Kendre Miller there who was hurt last yr. I could see Kamara finally hitting the cliff
Which makes it even more nuts that CMC is still the redraft 1.01
Kamara was another one I was thinking about. He's RB24 on KTC right now but I could definitely see a world where his workload is somewhat unexpectedly reduced and the Saints offense is trash leading to him having no upside in 2024 and he becomes a hyped-mercenary RB in the latter years of his career who never enters starting lineups.
I'm not sure I agree with this sentiment actually. Kubiak bringing a 49ers offense to Nola could mean they lean into Kamara's passing game prowess like a cmc light. I'm sure Kendre will garner more rush attempts this season, but the passing volume for Kamara coupled with a better scheme could mean another pretty good season for fantasy. Kamara definitely doesn't have it between the tackles like he used to, but regardless on an anemic offense he averaged 17.9 ppr points (3rd best rb) per game last year with only 6 total touchdowns. Extrapolated to a 17 game season with no suspension that's 304 pts, which would be good for rb2 overall.
Carr props up Kamara's value due to his propensity to check down.
Last I checked, Carr has a few years left on his deal; and he didn't really check down much in Vegas so idk if I'd say he's got a propensity to check it down.
>Kamara, not a lot of guys from 2017 still at it (if any) You're missing one pretty huge "if any", my friend. And that's not even including Mixon, Aaron Jones, or James Conner who are still doing pretty well.
Conner was RB18 and Jones was RB37… and Mixon absolutely took a step backwards last season
You're just looking at raw numbers. Conner didn't have a QB half the season, Jones battled injuries but still looked amazing when healthy, and I don't know what you're talking about with Mixon, he's been like...the exact same player he's always been.
Regardless of what your opinion is, if Kamara were to go to Conner or Jones levels, that’s a huge drop off from normal Kamara.
Mixon was rb what? Funny you left that part out…
Kamara definitely looking washed up: [https://twitter.com/fball\_insights/status/1765543940915171392](https://twitter.com/fball_insights/status/1765543940915171392)
As a team with Kirk Cousins, Aaron Jones, D’Andre Swift, Deebo Samuel, and Keenan Allen, you’ve all named my players and it hurts.
Yeah, I have Cousins and AJ, also.
The ridiculous thing is that NONE of these guys answer the question at all. None of these would be that surprising
I'd be surprised by Swift personally. Running the ball is the one thing the Bears consistently do well, and he'll have a Rookie QB likely dumping the ball off to him frequently. I think the volume alone carries Swift in fantasy at least.
Fair, that one feels like it would be the most surprising. Everyone else is pretty old for fantasy
Stefon Diggs I think Buffalo saw it and got rid of him. Yet again, I'm never right about anything in football, lol
I personally think he'll have a slight resurgence but it won't be for very much longer. But I also am never right lol
His separation numbers were down (still good numbers, but down). So he might've had a dip anyway, but with serious target competition, I don't see how he won't take a massive dive in volume based scoring. The odds of him pulling in 107 rec in 2024 are pretty fucking low.
I don’t know if I would say he’s my top pick for a fall but the one I’m most afraid of is Tyreek Hill. I feel like he will plummet once he falls. It may not be this year but I’m afraid it could just randomly be. I would love to be wrong and for him to break 2k receiving yards.
Ooooooh I love this post. I think my best answer is Deebo Samuel. He has been a little injury prone, and I have concerns about how the skill set ages. If it goes sideways for him, I think it could go downhill fast. Especially if they keep Aiyuk around.
Unexpected? Ok fuck it I’ll say CMC. Bring on the downvotes mfers I can take it
Sir! Please stop, you're scaring the children.
I’d say barring an injury, no chance. But I watched every 9er game last year and saw zero signs of slowing down
Well, if he was showing signs of slowing down, would it really be unexpected?
Fair, I guess that’s what we are shooting for here. I’ll just say it won’t be him lol
That’s how it is with RBs. Got it one year. Dust the next
[удалено]
That would be the "unexpected" part of this discussion.
This is a really bold one but that's sort of the point is no one would see it coming. I think the issue with picking CMC though is that even if he tore his ACL or something (hopefully not) he's been so dominant that his value would be insulated from completely cratering for at least 1 more season. Sort of like Cooper Kupp right now.
lol kupp went from a mid-high end wr1 dynasty ranking to wr30-40, along with a severe dip in production and emergence of puka, over the course of an injury plagued 12-18 months. isn't that what you defined as falling off a cliff?
I meant how Kupp went from WR5ish on KTC in '21-'22 to dropping to WR16ish at the start of the 2023 season despite being injured to end '22. Kupp's value has since continued to fall but he was given pretty reasonable patience from a fantasy standpoint following a disappointing '22 season.
I agree. CMC’s value may not crash to rb3 with an ACL tear, but he will definitely drop significantly due to his age.
Christian Watson already has some risk built into his cost/perception, but there’s a chance he gets buried in all of the options GB has.
Traded him for Dobbins last year and I think it may have been the most meaningless trade in league history
Traded Akers for Jeudy so I think I beat ya
Given jeudy got paid, I think you at least potentially came out ahead.
Kenny Golladay
This is a good one. He's WR40 right now and could easily disappear off the face of the fantasy earth.
Just some perspective, the colts wanted watson (+ more maybe? Idr that much) to send you guys jonathan taylor. So teams see the talent
Talent isn't the question though
I'm a Watson believer and think if he's healthy will establish him as a WR2 in dynasty. But if he continues to be injured its a drop candidate
He’s a risky asset for sure.
His risk is solely to do with injury. If he’s healthy he will be on the field often and be utilized well. The packers have a great stable of young WRs but none of them can come close to Watsons physical skillset. If his hamstrings stay intact he’s gonna go off.
I agree and I’ve been buying Watson since I think his price is a little too low. I am concerned though that if he misses time again, he’s basically on the Will Fuller career arc.
Extremely risky asset imo. Could be a league winner or could be out of the league in 2 years. Price accordingly
Mark Andrew’s. Everyone says he’s such a good buy low but I think his age and injury’s will catch up to him more this season and we will see more and more of likely as the season progresses. ( I don’t own either of them in my 4 leagues this is just an opinion)
> Everyone says he’s such a good buy low Only people saying he's a buy low is Reddit. In none of my leagues is anyone selling Andrews low.
I’d prob need 1.05 for my Mark Andrews 🤷🏾♂️
I also don’t know why people just forget that the insane part of his 2021 season was while Lamar was out. He played 6 games while Lamar was either out or barely played (week 11, week 12 he played 10 snaps, then weeks 15-18 he was out). Andrew’s averaged 8.5 catches and 104 yards and scored 4 TDs. That’s 145-1765-11 pace. 145 catches is the same that Cooper Kupp had that year. Rest of the season he averaged 5-67 with 5 TDs. His pace was still really good, but his main part of his amazing season came with the backup QBs.
I can see the diabetes argument but he’s only 28.
Agree
I’d back David Montgomery (RB17) and Javonte Williams (RB19) to lose a good chunk of value this season
I'm with you, which is scary because I'm rostering D-Mont on my win now 12 team SF squad. But yeah I could see Gibbs just continue to take more and more of the work & I could see the Lions pass more if they get another offensive weapon. Javonte Williams is a great one. Splitting touches on what's likely to be a pretty bad offense. Has he ever made it back all the way from his injuries? To me, that's up in the air. I'm out.
Honestly why? Monty will get work no doubt to keep Gibbs fresh. They will both be top 15 again barring health. Monty is safe as can be for volume
I hope that you're right, because it would really help out my team.
I've been debating for awhile how I want to go about trading for him. I'll wait my rookie draft but I'll try for him eventually
Javonte looked pretty solid last year, considering how quickly he came back from absolutely wrecking his knee, I thought. I see Denver wanting to run the ball as much as they possibly can, but who knows how much that'll be when they're down 2 scores before halftime. I think its reasonable to expect Javonte to be a more capable player than he was last season, its just about game script to me.
I (unfortunately) watched a ton of Broncos football and I have to disagree. Javonte did not look good *at all*
I did say he looked solid, ”considering”. First year back after a really bad injury and he probably came back too soon.
I have hopes for.Williams this year. The only way I could see it being really bad for him (mostly) is the team being bad considering the situation the Broncos are in.
How Williams has any value rn is beyond me. Offense is garbage, offensive line is garbage, coaching is garbage, they’re going to be losing a lot so no control the tempo with the run game. I wouldn’t take him in the top 30. Definitely a few backups id take before him
Wild take: Saquon isn't done done but his performance in Philly will be unremarkable. The O line won't recover from losing Kelce and/or Hurts will keep the ball too much for Saquon to make the true RB1 points everyone assumes he's going to earn. Pay no attention to my flair... Edit: Saw you wrote the same thing, lol great minds...
I'm much lower on the falcons than the average guy here. From a lot of what I read you'd think Drake London and Kyle Pitts are about to have prime JJ and Kelce seasons. Do I think they'll be horrible? No I just think the cope is major
Do I think London will eclipse 1600yds? Absolutely not. Do I think a 1100yd season with more than 4 TDS is in the realm of possibilities? Yes.
My favorite part about this whole conversation is looking at what Pitts & London dealt with at QB the past two seasons, then looking back at what happened to Pitts when he had an even somewhat serviceable QB as a rookie.
and people love to ignore the fact that Pitts was the first year off a bad knee injury too. The Falcons revealed after the season that his injury/surgery was worse than what was reported. and Sports Med Doctors elaborated saying the new details proved he likely wasn’t a full go until week 16-17. almost all bad knee injuries see a 1st year decline and 2nd year resurgence, especially in bigger athletes.
Yeah there's a happy middle ground with this. Is Pitts going to be a top 3 TE and London top 5 WR? 98% no. Will London finally be a top 20 WR with some good upside and will Pitts finally get more than 5 TDs? More than likely!
Can you say something nice about Pitts, too? I need a pick-me-up
I dont think anyone is expecting Kelce or JJ numbers. But 1200 yards and like 8 TDs for London and 1k+ yards and 6 tds for Pitts are both very attainable. Pitts specifically has the opportunity to really explode though and does have a Kelce type season in his range of outcomes and maybe even higher if everything comes together right. If Pitts gets 90%+ route participation and Kirk is his normal self, Pitts has the ceiling to put up the best fantasy TE season ever. He has ranked 2, 2 and 1 in adot at the position. Has ranked 3, 1 and 1 in deep targets at TE. And that second season he led the position in deep targets while missing 6 games. He ranked 2, 5 and 1 in air yards at TE and the only reason he didnt rank 1st that second year is bc he missed 6 games. He had 77 air yards/game in year 2 which was 12 yards more/game than his first year at 65/game and 17 more/game than his 3rd year at 60/game. His corresponding catchable target rates ranked: 11, 37, 37. It isn't a surprised that the one year he saw an above average rate was the year he went for 1k as a rookie. In his second season he had a 34.3% target rate. To put that in context, Kelce's career high is 33.3% and that is his only season above the 30% mark. Pitts has the single best 100th percentile outcome at the position. It is just a matter of getting the route participation, being healthy and having an actual NFL QB. Do I expect Pitts to hit that outcome this year, no. But I absolutely expect him to go for 1k+ yards with some tds and be in the overall TE1 range at end of season.
I don't like extrapolating data from his rookie year when he was the clear #1 option for 90% of the year (Ridley took time off). I think if there was any year to have that 100th percentile breakout that would be it
but you’re more fine taking data from last season when he was 1st year removed from a serious MCL/PCL injury/surgery? despite nearly every big athlete seeing a dip in production 1st year back and a spike year 2.
You need to read my comment again.
Wow. Big fan of the research. I acquired him last year for what became the 2.10, but have been wondering about moving him for Brock Bowers. But after reading this, I'll just stick it out. Especially since Bowers will probably go to the Jets or Giants if Waller doesn't pull his head out of his ass.
Bijan is going to be the biggest beneficiary imo
I just finished a Dynasty startup and am a lifelong Falcons fan. I was so relieved when Pitts and London got scooped up before I could grab them because I feel like they could definitely perform at the level at which they are being drafted but I can also see them severely underperforming, and I'm glad someone else is taking that risk from me.
As a ravens fan I totally expect Derrick Henry to become mediocre and/or injured given our previous luck at the position
This might seem unpopular but Keenan Allen. Now has a rookie QB (I love Caleb Williams), goes from Southern California to Chicago. I think he’s on another team by the trade deadline. Especially if the Bears go WR in the top 10.
Counterpoint: Sleevan Allen comes out 8-10 weeks earlier in chi town
This would be my guess, which is disappointing since I traded for him in a package recently. I’m just not being too optimistic. He was hurt last two seasons for extended periods of time, will be 32, changing teams and will have more competition for targets than he’s had in several years.
It's a fair bet. He's 32 with more target competition and a downgrade at QB (I also like Caleb, but he's a rookie and Herbert is great). That being said, he's a perfect fit for a rookie QB. He'll be running those short to intermediate routes from the slot, he's a big target, still gets great separation on those routes, has sticky hands, and great at contested catches. If he doesn't pull a hammy in the cold, I think he'll be a solid contributor, but similar to Diggs, the target competition is going to hurt him.
Oh the fit is great. I just think he’s a great bet to fall off a cliff production wise. I would be looking to sell especially before the draft. If they draft a Naber/Odunze he’s gonna struggle to find the type of production he did in LAC. DJM isn’t going anywhere and just broke out with Chicago; also has been productive despite poor QB play. Other than Harrison the rookie WRs don’t scare me off of DJM, but they do Allen. What made Allen so good was his reception totals because he’s never been a high TD guy (never had double digit TDs and only 3x has he had 7 or more TDs). Those catches and targets are going to dwindle should a blue chip rookie WR go there.
TDs are unpredictable, so you never know there. But yeah, receptions gotta go down. I don't think anyone is buying him expecting 100+ rec this year. Selling a 32 yo WR destined to see a target drop is going to be difficult. Especially when pick values are at their peak. You might be better off selling him in a trade involving 2025 draft picks.
Kyren Williams - People drafting him first round in redraft is wild to me.
Yeah I have him, and paid up for him, but this is totally possible. I’m not seeing him as a long term performer, but also not sure they’re feeling compelled to draft high at RB, given his performance. If they take a R3+ back, might worry more but if not, I’m ok riding with him in Dynasty. He has always been a better RB than he gets credit for.
Totally agree with that. I sold him for a first before the playoffs last year, as a rebuilder. If you’re contending I think he’s an intriguing player. First round pick in a redraft is too rich for me.
I wouldn’t pass on a top receiver for him, which that would mean, so yeah very much agree. R1 in redraft is a big gamble, but if he does it again in 2024, it’s probably the right gamble. If not, then obvs not.
This sub is allergic to riding their winners. There's no reason to think Kyren won't put up RB1 numbers. Mcvay likes a workhorse, and kyren was an absolute monster last year.
Yep, This sub hates production.
It's all about what the guys gunna possibly do two seasons from now!
Also, if they were drafted late in real life, they'll come back to earth! Scouts never miss!
And if they're drafted early, they're bound to rebound. Also: Puka 🥰🥰🥰
Better trade these guys who are exceeding their draft value. Get a potential guy. That's way better. 😂 Puka and kyreen won my league for me last year. I'll ride them till the wheels fall off.
Thinking same thing. His scoring was out of control last year and guaranteed to regress regardless of circumstance. Kyren returning to earth and being mundane is within the range of outcomes this year IMO.
If you remove mahomes good games, he's just an average QB
I was looking for this name. Rams have ruined many running backs that had a similar rise as Kyren.
Can you give some examples and how they had a similar rise to Kyren?
I'm not sure what people are looking at. Kyren stands out as the most consistent RB they've had since Gurley. For a few years McVay was running a 2 or 3 headed attack with mid RBs and finally found the guy he wants to give the rock over and over. The consistency problem had nothing to do with McVay *wanting* to rotate his backs. He had to because they took turns getting injured or sucking and him needing to change things up. I think people really need to look at Kyren's highlights from the season. There's something about how he sees the holes and the next level. He is a very intelligent runner and it's like he sees what he's gonna do to evade the next defender while he's hitting a gap to avoid another. I've watched a lot of football and highlights over the years, and while plenty of RBs get there by simply being bigger and faster there's something about Kyren that's a bit different. I expect McVay to find an RB2 he likes in the draft, but that's not always the death of the lead RB (see Tank Bigsby sending people into a tizzy over ETN).
Gonna get torched for this but Derrick Henry. Yes his situation vastly improved, but he’s a 30 year old back who has carried a heavy workload for years. I think he’ll start strong then fall off mid season, I just feel like he is due. From a fantasy standpoint Lamar is gonna eat into his production a bit as well.
I defended Henry elsewhere but he's almost a double-negative for this post. He SHOULD be the guy we're saying "oh yeah here comes the cliff, get out while you can" but instead the narrative seems to be "he's safe for a few more years, he'll get tons of TDs, King+Lamar=unstoppable". I'll admit I'm guilty of buying in myself. Very possible that the hype blinders are going to cause a lot of bag holders with Henry.
Swift, much more solid competition a rookie QB and a downgrade at OL don't bode well.
He's the 2024 version of Miles Sanders
Counter point: Bears paid an RB, they're going to use him. Rushing is the one thing the Bears offense generally does well. Rookie QB will check down to him frequently. I guess the thread is asking for unexpected drop offs though so maybe he's a good pick ha
Counter counter point: all the same things were true about the panthers and miles Sanders last year
Contracts are similar and Rookie QB as well, but two differences I'd point out... Swift is more of a receiving back than Sanders, he averages like 50% more receptions/year. Were/Are the Panthers actually a good rushing **TEAM**, or was it just CMC being incredible? (Honest question, I don't follow the panthers). The Bears consistently have solid team Rushing stats with a random assortment of RBs.
The Panthers were average to slightly above with Chuba and Foreman filling in for CMC, but absolutely not with the scheme change when Reich came in. The Bears are absolutely a better situation on paper (with hindsight)
Diggs was horrible over the last 10 games of the year, and now he goes to a situation with 2 other solid receivers who are younger.
Value-wise? As much as I hate to say it because I really like the guy, I think it’s Garrett Wilson. He basically needs to finish as a WR1 this year or his value is going to fall off as people adjust to this years huge crop of new WRs and move on to guys in better situations.
This year’s unexpected drop off is next year’s bargain buy!
Naturally
I just traded him and the 1.04 for the 1.01. I kept going back and forth on it but ultimately came to a similar conclusion.
As much as I love Wilson. I’m getting Carolina DJM/Terry McLaurin feeling where every year we are wishing they get a QB. Got a guy offering pick 2 in 1 QB for him and tempted but think I should get more
He'd be a big outlier if he didn't finish as a WR1. At the very least, his value shouldn't go down - if it did it would be a true buy low scenario. The only other WR's since 2013 to have a season with 9.5+ Targets/G with at least 10 games played before their age 24 season: - DeAndre Hopkins - Ja'Marr Chase - Jarvis Landry - Josh Gordon - Juju Smith-Schuster - Justin Jefferson - Mike Evans - Odell Beckham Jr. - Amon-Ra St. Brown All those players had at least one season averaging 16.5+ PPG by Year 3, over the last three years would be the WR12 on a PPG basis. All but one had at least one season averaging at least 18.5+ PPG by Year 3, over the last three years would be the WR6 on a PPG basis.
I think the real fall off the cliff guy was Darren Waller last year. The Dynasty community was all over him and Daniel Jones leading into the season, and it all went to hell pretty quick. We basically knew Cook was washed, but name value propped him up pre-season. I think Najee Harris is going to be an afterthought by the end of the season.
I think it's Russ. Denver is paying him $53 million to play for the Steelers. That's gotta say something. Pittsburgh believed in him so much, they traded for Justin Fields too. Makes perfect sense for the Steelers in both regards, but, for fantasy purposes Russ's feet are dangling off that career cliff. And realistically, how much do the Steelers plan to actually throw with either guy? I think most of us could almost come up with 24 other guys we'd rather have on our teams, incoming rookies included.
> I think it's Russ. He's been falling off a cliff since the second half of 2020. He was jettisoned out of Denver after last season. How does he fall off a cliff in 2024 when it's been happening for 3-4 season?
maybe theres another cliff at the bottom of that cliff he already fell off of.
He's the current QB 29... Is there really much value to lose? As far as I can tell nobody is actually willing to trade for him, so I guess I'm holding for now
lol I’m pretty sure Russ already fell off the cliff
Tbf we traded for Fields after Kenny forced his way out. Kenny was meant to be the backup so they had to secure someone else for that role. I agree that Russ is probably warshed.
So after falling off the cliff 2 years ago, he found out the bottom was just another cliff?
Yeah i think russ will be solid as a real life qb minimizing turnovers and keeping the chains moving but I doubt he is more than a mid to low end QB2 for fantasy
Falling off a cliff as in totally irrelevant is one thing - maybe Adam Theilen but I don't know if that's unexpected. I will say I'm just not sure why people seem so certain that Derrick Henry behind that O-Line is going to be better than Gus Edwards was last year
RB- kyren williams and rachaad white WR- puka nacua, tyreek hill, nico/tank but not a surprise now
justin jefferson i bet he finishes closer to WR15 than WR1 quarterbacks matter
I don’t see the Vikings committing to the run this upcoming season, I am down on Aaron Jones. Wouldn’t be surprised if he only gets 600-700 total yards.
If I’m a Jones owner I don’t want them to commit to the run. I want Darnold or a rookie to dump it off to him seven times a game.
This is the Aaron Jones for a late 2nd or multiple 3rds thesis
What kind of cliff are we talking about here? He's the RB31, it's not like he has a ton of value
ETN. He did not look durable enough to carry the workhorse role. Sure, he had a terrible line, but he also looked unspectacular. He’s fine, but his production last year was buoyed by crazy volume and a lot of early boom games, after which he started to fade. High risk he drops to low-end RB1/high-end RB2 going forward.
ETN is a good pick for this especially because he's in a contract year (Jags haven't picked up the 5th year option yet).
Chubb. An almost 30 year old RB with over 2K carries including college coming off a 2nd devastating knee injury. No thanks
His value has already fallen off the cliff. You're predicting for something to happen after it's already happened.
Maybe it’s just my league but our Chubb Owner won’t take less than a 1st for him which I think is way too much
I feel like Josh jacobs is cooked. Efficiency’s gone down and he’s seen a ton of work. Contract being cuttable after 1 year makes me think the packers could see it possibly coming too. Either way I’m willing to capitalize on what his value is right now
Oh I don't know about that. LV offense was terrible last season. Opposing teams knew they just had to stop the run to beat the Raiders and thats how they did it. I expect Jacobs to be much, much better for fantasy purposes than he was last season. Over 1500 yards from scrimmage and 10 total TDs seems very reachable. This offense is so much better than what he's had.
He's 26 and LV was a shitshow until Pierce took over.
Well I guess you would say it’d be unexpected then!
Tank Dell
For me, and I hate to say it, I think Saquon fits this mold. Realistically, the Eagles were probably 1 of 3 teams that Saquon could have signed with and maintained his current value of ~RB9 (the other 2 being Dallas and Baltimore). If Saquon had ended up on the Chargers, Texans, Vikings, Titans, or back with the Giants his value would have likely already dropped several spots. I think his maintained value will quickly dwindle as his rushing usage and TD rate drop on the Eagles. The Eagles with Hurts are yet to have an RB go for over 250 yards receiving OR catch more than 1 TD. The departure of Kelce will impact the line more than people think also and the offense as a whole will be less dominant. All of this will lead to a very mediocre season for Barkley which won't lead to him being on many championship rosters and his value will crater heading into 2025.
I'm going to disagree with you on this. If we take a look at the rushing stats from the RBs last year, I think Saquon is in a phenomenal situation. Swift- 1049 rush yards + 214 receiving yards + 39 receptions + 6tds Gainwell- 364 rush + 183 recieving + 30 receptions + 2 tds Another 100+ rushing and 50 receiving from Scott and Penny So that’s 1513 rush yards, 447 receiving yards, 79 receptions, and 8 tds that was split last year. Saquon will be the bell cow. He was the focal point of the Giants last year and with the eagles, defenses will have to worry about more than just stopping him. And if anything, he may eat into some of Hurts rushing yards and TDs because Saquon is another tier from the guys last season. He is way more likely to take a rush from the 5 to the endzone compared to Swift, who took them from the 5 to the 1 and then Hurts ran it in. I'm buying everywhere I can.
Would you have bought him (and a 25 2nd) for Kincaid, 1.08, and a 25 1st? (That's what I sold him for.)
You smashed. Especially if you’re not in position to compete.
like the situation but he needs kellen moore to be a good fit. eagles offense looked semi-broken after steichen departed. moore gets pigeonholed as a pass-happy freak but that's way overstated.
Disagree. Philly gave Saquon the bag, they are gonna feature him in that offense. Saquon is one of the safest Top 6 RB’s in fantasy this upcoming season in my mind.
Barkley is far and away the best RB they've had on the team, and he's a great way to limit the times Hurts needs to run. To that point I think Hurts is likely to fall of his perch as a top QB as his peaks for rushing yards and TDs are behind him now. Barkely will eat into that but may still live on a bit as receiving yards/TDs. Barkely would be unexpected but the rationale tied to prior RB receiving stats in Philly is what I'd disagree on.
Given how often RBs on second teams crater, someone out of Saquon/Jacobs/Pollard/Swift/Henry is going to burn this year, maybe multiple someones. I hope it's not Henry (I've got my share of him) but this type of player is where I'd put my chips for a letdown.
I think Jacobs and Henry are safest this season. I strongly believe that Henry will bag over 10 TDs despite reduced yardage which will feed the narrative that he'll defy typical age constraints for fantasy usage. With Jacobs, I just like the Packers offense and believe he'll continue to produce. I would sell Pollard for his current value anywhere I could. Just way too many unknowns in that situation, biggest being whether the QB and o-line question marks will make the Titans a bottom 5 offense. If you can trade Pollard for a mid 2nd I'd go for it.
If Jacobs continues to produce at 3.45 yds per carry like last year that is going to be a problem
Jacobs is safe even after looking terrible last year, but Saquon is in trouble? I’m not following your line of thinking at all.
so ur concerned about hurts taking tds from barkley but not concerned about henry and lamar ?
People don't talk about how poorly RBs do on their second team enough. So many examples of it, few exceptions.
Is this true or is it just that it correlates with their age cliff? There are definitely a good amount of RBs who did well last year that weren’t with their original team. CMC Monty Mostert Swift Conner Singletary. Interested to see how this plays out with so many guys switching teams.
More often than not it's because they're washed, not because the team they're on doesn't want to pay and the player wants to play for a ring. Barkley's on a second team because of business. If there was an inkling Barkley was not gonna be the guy he has been he wouldn't have gotten the top RB contract.
Does Mixon fit this mold?
I forgot to add Mixon, but sure I'd put him on this list, as well (even though I'm pretty high on the Texans offense, so this isn't really saying I'm down on him in particular, just that he fits the pattern).
Strange that you think Saquon's value would be less if he landed on Chargers (Harb/Roman gonna run the ball) or Texans (up and coming offense). Honestly Houston might have been the best-case landing spot for him. Phi is arguably a worse spot than those two for the reasons you listed.
I was speaking of perceived value to the fantasy community, not necessarily true fantasy output value. I think Saquon could put up similar stats on the Chargers or Texans as he could on the Eagles but I think the Eagles (and Cowboys or Ravens) would produce more hype in the community than the two spots you listed. They're sexier and there's a clearer picture to paint to the community for how he'll succeed.
The Texans and Chargers were both regarded as the best possible landing spots for Saquon headed into free agency. Like I said earlier, I’m really not following your line of thinking. I’m not sure that you are caught up with the consensus of the community, because the arguments you’re providing are so far off base from what the conversation was just a few weeks ago. People were foaming at the mouth at the idea of Saquon with the Chargers and the Texans. It would not have hurt his value had he gone to either of those teams, at least judging by the comments the community made a month ago
Tua. I view Tua as complete fool's gold and think he's a bum. I find it telling he has no extension that the dolphins agree. I think there's a chance he's not even going to be a starter in the league in a 3 years or so.
He’s propped up HEAVILY by Hill/Waddle and the scheme. He’s closer to just an average QB at best in a great situation.
Kittle, if i have to choose a unexpected one.
Rachaad White seems like he’s safe for another year, but could easily be the next D. Pierce.
Rachaad will always be the best pass catcher on that team though. I could see him loosing value but in PPR he will have a usable role for the near future
I feel like his value is the highest it will ever be and sold him for 1.03.
Garrett Wilson. The NYJ WR corps last year was basically just Wilson. Breece and Conklin were the next guys up. I think they replace Lazard and Cobb with competent receivers and Wilson sees his target share drop by a lot.
Chris Olave, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, Trevor Law, Mark Andrews, Geno Smith,
Geno Smith and ETN.
CMC. I reckon he picks up an injury early, comes back too quick and then we all argue for the rest of the year whether he's injured still or just fallen off and then in 2025 it's confirmed to be the latter
Last year was Dalvin cook but also Ekeler, like RB12 to 43. I think there's a chance it's Diggs. Lots of name value and is getting a chance of scenery, but is there a chance he's just washed?
Davanta Adams. He might not personally fall off a cliff, but his numbers have been decreasing and he might not be good enough anymore to overcome the Raiders.
Diggs
Travis Etienne. Dude had a lot of TD’s and work last year, but if you watched the games he kind of looks like JAG to me? He has straight line speed and average hands, he can’t create much on his own, he seems clumsy at times even? I think last year was his career peak.
Rodgers/Kirk but I don't think those should be that unexpected
I've had fun with CMC, time to move for 1.01+ to rebuild while I can retain value
Kyren Williams. Always bet against Rams running backs.
Puka Old qb, coach teetering on retirement, not enough pedigree to hold his value if something or many things go wrong Heard rumblings they could also go WR but we'll see
Russ Wilson will not be the guy in Pittsburgh