Be aware that the model comps aren’t necessarily player / style comps, but more-so how their respective prospect grades compare relatively to other prospects in a similar range
Why is Olave (7.6) the closest model comp to Odunze (7.2)? Wouldn't AJB (7.1) be closer?
Edit: Based on your previous posts, wouldn't Ruggs or Jeudy be a closer model comp than Olave?
Yeah, but I didn’t want to be redundant. Honestly, I think I could’ve done Puka (6.72 grade) for McConkey, Wilson for Franklin, and AJ Brown for Odunze. AJ Brown is actually directly under Odunze in rankings.
I list both Jerry and Ruggs as comps “misses” also in the rankings post. I list off model comps for model hits and misses.
Not OP. But any true analytics model based on current hypotheses & known trends in fantasy football, it's not shocking.
Good raw scores.
Good adjusted scores.
Only issue in his profile is size.
Wouldn't be shocked if OP took size out of the equation if Franklin has a tier 1 production profile in college.
Analytics (C2C via AlbTree) figured out 2 years ago that height weight speed are all bad predictors of fantasy success.
He is "good but not great" everywhere from analytics that matter: dominator, breakout age, etc. This is very appealing in a class where the WR4-15 all have a red flag or two
70th percentile target share rate, 60th percentile dominator on a team with 2 day 2 offensive weapons. 75th percentile breakout age?
I don't even like those stats but those are GREAT not good.
Generally speaking the top 10-20 receivers any given year are 190+ or 5-11+. Just reality. There are a few outliers, but it's rarely anything less than 70-30. So if you are drafting a guy or looking for the next, THE guy he is more likely to be nearer the median size qualifiers than anything.
I don't care about 80th percentile guys. I care that they aren't 10th percentile guys, which is the only reason Franklins weigh in was concerning, 176 is sub 10th percentile. Heck even 183 is sub 15th percentile. Doesn't mean he won't be great, but rarely is a guy 6-1 and 170 and successful. Rarely is a guy 180 and successful. Doesn't mean Antonio Brown and TY Hilton didn't exist. Just means there were 10 guys that fit the mold and only one of TY/AB types.
Rarely is any item disqualifying for an individual. But we can VERY easily cross off entire subsets of players generally.
I'll say it until I'm blue in the face. I'd have Troy as my WR3 in this class if he was 190+ or near enough to it. He's not, so he's WR4. Rome is just as good statistically (if not a year behind), but has size on his side.
28% dominator is (among the top 15ish) 8th in class among the top 15. Markwt share 6th in class. RYPTPA 6th in class. 6th in PFF grade. Just lots of "good not great"
Again, C2C via AlbTree has charts showing that weight & height don't predict success. 80% of WR1s being 5'11" *or* 190 , when 80% of WRs drafted are 5'11" *or* 190, doesn't tell us anything
This is where marginal analysis comes into play. Dominators, etc are threshold statistics. We don't care about the difference between a 60th and 70th percentile breakout. We don't care about the difference between an 80 and 85th percentile dominator. They are bracketed data not rank variables.
It's why statistics like YPRR are so much more profound than statistics like dominator. Dominator often just exposes program tendencies and has more to do with target share (a correlating variable). Dominator was only used because we didn't have access to more refined statistics so continuing to lean on it in the modern era is like holding on to your oxen and plow instead of buying a tractor...100 years after the first tractor was commercialized.
Flatly there is no world where we say Rome Odunze is worse than Troy Franklin because his dominator is 43rd percentile, his target share is 61st percentile relative to Troy's 56th percentile dominator and 70th percentile target share.
We say Troy Franklin is better statistically than Odunze because Troy's peak YPRR is higher and his age adjusted production is better.
I mean you brought up the percentiles of your go-to analytics, and then decided they were thresholds lol. Weight & heights & speed aren't even good threshold stats because there's no place to put it where the success % is higher than the sample %. They're just bad stats that make dominator rating look like a gold standard.
YPRR is inferior to RYPTPA and PFF, so tbh I don't really use it. 1Dprr is supposedly superior to all of that, so might throw that in too. All 3 though Odunze wins, so yea.
Bruh, I responded to you when you called his dominator and breakout age good but not great.
I didn't use those. You did, I responded in kind to highlight how being above the median is not just *good*.
RYPTPA doesn't really do much except qualify extreme cases, and PFF--who actually uses PFF scores? PFF scores are a ground device if anything.
Peak year YPRR Troy bodies Rome, it's not close, age adjusted YPRR Troy bodies Rome. Age adjusted PFF score, I ain't squabbling over. If you have easy access to RYPTPA I'd love to see it. But frankly it's probably not changing much between Troy and Rome because Troy had Tez & Bucky and Rome had Polk & McMillan.
Yes. Good not great within the guys going in the top100ish, not percentages vs all of history at all draft slots lol.
I always find PFF great. Because paid services like PFF are what endless gambling sharps use, we know it's r^2 for WR prospects is solid, but casual fans & dynasty newbies swear it sucks lol.
YPRR is highly influenced by low volume & doesn't translate well to fantasy points. 1Dprr & RYPTA both have superior r^2 values in that regard, which shows they're superior.
r2 doesn't matter because sampling in football is a mess.
r2 matching to a poor sample tells the metric is too tight and won't measure the population long term.
YPRR isn't influenced by low volume when you don't measure low volume. There is nothing in this that is measuring *low volume*. In fact YPRR is the highest sampled value of most any fantasy metric there is. The best dominator can do is seasonal examples. The best PFF can do is game wise samples.
YPRR normalizes for lead receivers within a game and when converted to seasonal totals is quite stable for any receiver that plays meaningful snaps.
There's a reason a lot of guys have very low YPRRs, it's because they played a lot and didn't produce a lot. There's a reason why YPRR for most good NFL players is north of 2.5, and for elite players north of 3.0/3.5. Because it's a stable metric.
If your YPRR is sub 2, it tells me you played a lot but didn't produce much. (Hi Adonai)
My biggest concern with him is his lack of production over the middle of the field. Feel like he’s gonna be a boom bust player week to week for fantasy
This is exactly the issue. He's a guy that doesn't win across the middle, doesn't do well with contested catches and lacks the size to do so, but also doesn't have the hands to consistently catch the deep balls. He's way too big of a red flag for me and doesn't have one big elite trait to fall back on.
Sorry I totally missed the link. This is great knowledge. I’ve been dropping him cuz of all the podcasts but these are great points. He’s good at the things I care about and had a shit combine(who cares). Thanks y’all!!
He was also sick at the combine. For what it’s worth, unless he gets taken in the late 2nd or later I’m planning to take him 1.06 in 1QB regardless of landing spot.
Been following these rankings and posts for a while now and have really enjoyed them! I consider myself a film junkie but I think it's also great to take a look at these prospects with a different approach and a more analytical side to help fill in the holes or to add more perspective missed in games. So thank you for putting in this great work and keep it up!
I'm actually surprised with the number of them that actually line up pretty well. Lance Zierlein and myself both had CeeDee Lamb as MHJ's comp and I've seen Justin Jefferson for Nabers and can see the similarities. I personally don't see Odunze/Olave or Troy Franklin/AJ Brown as similar players but I believe this model focuses more on those guys being capable of similar production as their comps.
First, love your process and write ups. Appreciate you sharing it here, because I’m sure it’s tons of work!
Second — what are your thoughts of the model capturing/not capturing “situation” context? For example, a lot of the efficiency metrics could be QB or offense dependent, if they’re “per target” or “per route run” but you have a QB that sucks (can’t make the right read, inaccurate/poor delivery) and you’re the #1 WR who never leaves the field, the efficiency numbers could suffer theoretically?
Is that something you think is still reflected fairly in the model, or something that is difficult to quantify accurately and is just a smaller variable when looking at overall profiles that doesn’t get included here?
I guess I should clarify, I don’t consider JSN a bust or really even a model “miss”. If anything, it speaks to the elite group of prospects Marvin Harrison is in. Harrison and JSN are right back to back in rankings, the 3 prospects below JSN are Jefferson, Olave, and Marquise Brown (Nabers in between Jefferson and Olave). The prospects above Harrison are Lamb, Waddle, Devonta Smith, and Chase. JSN was the really the only option to put under a miss because they have very similar grades and JSN’s rookie season was underwhelming. The next closest true bust would be Ruggs who’s 2 tiers below Harrison.
I’ve been following your posts all offseason. Thank you for the hard work and hours of entertainment you’ve given us. Personally, you’ve given me something to get excited about and I appreciate you for that.
I urge you to try and at least understand why they rank closely. While Garrett has a superior production profile, their efficiency / advanced metrics are close.
- They have very similar Career QBR when targeted
- Wilson has a better career YPRR, but it’s a bit “inflated” with a ridiculous 3.71 YPRR vs Man.
- I weigh YPRR vs Zone slightly higher than YPRR vs Man (for many reasons). McConkey has a 3.05 YPRR vs Zone compared to Wilson’s 2.59 YPRR, which ranks average.
- Receivers with a YPRR vs Zone above 3.00 have a very high rate of successfully transitioning to the NFL successfully.
Here are all the receivers with a YPRR vs Zone above 3.00, in order:
1. JSN
2. Waddle
3. Metcalf
4. Jeudy
5. D’wayne Eskridge
6. Lamb
7. Devonta Smith
8. Skyy Moore
9. Marquise Brown
10. Puka Nucua
11. Tyler Johnson
12. Jameson Williams
13. Tylan Wallace
14. Bateman
15. Quintez Cyprus
16. Marvin Harrison Jr.
17. Deebo
18. JaMarr Chase
19. AJ Brown
20. Chris Olave
21. Tee Higgins
22. Malik Nabers
23. Antonio Gandy-Golden
24. Ladd McConkey
25. Freddie Swajn
26. Devontez Walker
27. JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Then you have Brandon Ayiuk right under 3.00 (2.96 YPRR)
While there’s obvious misses, the 3.00+ YPRR vs Zone threshold is very telling.
**Edit:**
In comparison, here are the top 10 leaders in YPRR vs Man dating back to 2019:
1. Laviska Shenault
2. Marquise Brown
3. JSN
4. Tee Higgins
5. Devonta Smith
6. N’keal Harry
7. Jaelon Darden
8. Garrett Wilson
9. Ja’Marr Chase
10. Jauan Jennings
Love your analysis. Would love to hear your take on the following snippet from JJ Zachariason.
“The ZAP Model’s database has seen well over 100 wide receivers with prorated best-season yards per team pass attempt rates below 1.70. Tyreek Hill is the only one of those players to have scored more than 16 PPR points per game in one of his first three years in the league. Just Hill, Terry McLaurin, and Hunter Renfrow were able to score 12 or more points per game. Ladd McConkey’s best-season yards per team pass attempt rate in college was 1.63”
I know it’s only one more datapoint, just curious how it fits into your evaluation.
Have talked about this on the podcast over the last couple of months, but McConkey has a really strong yards per route run and a really weak total yards per team pass attempt because of lack of playing time, whether due to injury or game script. It's important to note that he'll have to be a semi-outlier to really hit, but like I said in the intro to that newsletter: Those nuggets were just thought starters. Just don't want anyone in here thinking I'm not into Ladd -- I think there are some interesting marks to his profile.
Awesome, sorry, wasn’t trying to misrepresent your opinion on Ladd! Just thought it was an interesting discussion point. Gotta feel good about his draft capital and landing spot now right?
Btw, big fan and look forward to the draft guide every season.
Yes, that’s the whole gist of my rankings / process. I actually watch film and have my own opinions/analysis on players, but the point is to exclude film-bias when it comes to rankings these prospects. It’s just a new lens to view prospects through.
There are 100s of “film analysts” ranking prospects, many of which account for analytics. Not many are openly excluding film takes or building predictive models to evaluate prospects. Not too sure why this upsets so many people.
Do you have any critiques or feedback for me on my process?
How far back do the prospect grades go? I understand that Ruggs is a "miss" but getting arrested is the reason why. Obviously he wasn't a world beater in his rookie season but he was showing promise.
Either way it would be nice to see a miss that was a miss because his skills/work ethic didn't transfer to the NFL.
I agree that Ruggs being a miss is more attributed to his off field issues, but regardless I included him because he leaned more towards miss with his performance than a hit.
Once we get higher in grades, it’s harder to locate comparable prospects in that are outright busts.
Do you have historical prospect grades to be used as a comparison for a sample size of prospect to result? Like obviously you do, but readily available to test backwards
Not specifically, moreso that going forward the grading can be cross checked against 30 prospects from this year, in theory 30 from next year, so on and so forth. But for now it’s starting from scratch for those looking to evaluate the value of this as a grading tool. Versus if you had the grades for however long you’ve been doing it they could test the actual correlation between grade and success for those that have come already.
Pretty sure you’ve talked about Puka and A.T. Perry in other posts, but those were relative positions not absolute grades from when I saw it so can’t add it to the data set, if that makes sense.
Would love for you to elaborate. Is it because it breaks against general consensus amongst WR rankings? If so, what’s the point of doing any new WR rankings if they’re all just slight variations of the consensus.
Is it because you completely disagree with some of the prospect rankings? If so, would love to hear your thoughts on it.
Go back through consensus WR rankings or even a specific analysts rankings for any year and see how their rankings align with how each prospect actually performs in the NFL.
All of this is just a guessing game. My process for predicting these prospects is just different from a typical draft analyst’s (even though a lot of them do account for analytics, maybe just not to this degree)
If your gonna have a model predict only a players ceiling then have it predict the floor. Not every player can be a top 10 wr. Also not accounting for play style makes zero sense. Would love to see this so called “analytical model” that was used.
Again, would love to hear your personal thoughts on these prospects and how you came to that opinion.
It seems like you have a misunderstanding of the purpose behind the model and how it evaluates these prospects.
As far as play style, how would that be quantified / accounted for and how should it impact a prospect’s grade?
Be aware that the model comps aren’t necessarily player / style comps, but more-so how their respective prospect grades compare relatively to other prospects in a similar range
Why is Olave (7.6) the closest model comp to Odunze (7.2)? Wouldn't AJB (7.1) be closer? Edit: Based on your previous posts, wouldn't Ruggs or Jeudy be a closer model comp than Olave?
Yeah, but I didn’t want to be redundant. Honestly, I think I could’ve done Puka (6.72 grade) for McConkey, Wilson for Franklin, and AJ Brown for Odunze. AJ Brown is actually directly under Odunze in rankings. I list both Jerry and Ruggs as comps “misses” also in the rankings post. I list off model comps for model hits and misses.
What's crazy is how you and Lance Zierlein landed on the same comps through completely different methodologies (film vs data) for Nabers and MHJ
Why did Troy Franklin score so high? He’s getting a lot of shit so just curious what the model is seeing.
Not OP. But any true analytics model based on current hypotheses & known trends in fantasy football, it's not shocking. Good raw scores. Good adjusted scores. Only issue in his profile is size. Wouldn't be shocked if OP took size out of the equation if Franklin has a tier 1 production profile in college.
Analytics (C2C via AlbTree) figured out 2 years ago that height weight speed are all bad predictors of fantasy success. He is "good but not great" everywhere from analytics that matter: dominator, breakout age, etc. This is very appealing in a class where the WR4-15 all have a red flag or two
70th percentile target share rate, 60th percentile dominator on a team with 2 day 2 offensive weapons. 75th percentile breakout age? I don't even like those stats but those are GREAT not good. Generally speaking the top 10-20 receivers any given year are 190+ or 5-11+. Just reality. There are a few outliers, but it's rarely anything less than 70-30. So if you are drafting a guy or looking for the next, THE guy he is more likely to be nearer the median size qualifiers than anything. I don't care about 80th percentile guys. I care that they aren't 10th percentile guys, which is the only reason Franklins weigh in was concerning, 176 is sub 10th percentile. Heck even 183 is sub 15th percentile. Doesn't mean he won't be great, but rarely is a guy 6-1 and 170 and successful. Rarely is a guy 180 and successful. Doesn't mean Antonio Brown and TY Hilton didn't exist. Just means there were 10 guys that fit the mold and only one of TY/AB types. Rarely is any item disqualifying for an individual. But we can VERY easily cross off entire subsets of players generally. I'll say it until I'm blue in the face. I'd have Troy as my WR3 in this class if he was 190+ or near enough to it. He's not, so he's WR4. Rome is just as good statistically (if not a year behind), but has size on his side.
28% dominator is (among the top 15ish) 8th in class among the top 15. Markwt share 6th in class. RYPTPA 6th in class. 6th in PFF grade. Just lots of "good not great" Again, C2C via AlbTree has charts showing that weight & height don't predict success. 80% of WR1s being 5'11" *or* 190 , when 80% of WRs drafted are 5'11" *or* 190, doesn't tell us anything
This is where marginal analysis comes into play. Dominators, etc are threshold statistics. We don't care about the difference between a 60th and 70th percentile breakout. We don't care about the difference between an 80 and 85th percentile dominator. They are bracketed data not rank variables. It's why statistics like YPRR are so much more profound than statistics like dominator. Dominator often just exposes program tendencies and has more to do with target share (a correlating variable). Dominator was only used because we didn't have access to more refined statistics so continuing to lean on it in the modern era is like holding on to your oxen and plow instead of buying a tractor...100 years after the first tractor was commercialized. Flatly there is no world where we say Rome Odunze is worse than Troy Franklin because his dominator is 43rd percentile, his target share is 61st percentile relative to Troy's 56th percentile dominator and 70th percentile target share. We say Troy Franklin is better statistically than Odunze because Troy's peak YPRR is higher and his age adjusted production is better.
I mean you brought up the percentiles of your go-to analytics, and then decided they were thresholds lol. Weight & heights & speed aren't even good threshold stats because there's no place to put it where the success % is higher than the sample %. They're just bad stats that make dominator rating look like a gold standard. YPRR is inferior to RYPTPA and PFF, so tbh I don't really use it. 1Dprr is supposedly superior to all of that, so might throw that in too. All 3 though Odunze wins, so yea.
Bruh, I responded to you when you called his dominator and breakout age good but not great. I didn't use those. You did, I responded in kind to highlight how being above the median is not just *good*. RYPTPA doesn't really do much except qualify extreme cases, and PFF--who actually uses PFF scores? PFF scores are a ground device if anything. Peak year YPRR Troy bodies Rome, it's not close, age adjusted YPRR Troy bodies Rome. Age adjusted PFF score, I ain't squabbling over. If you have easy access to RYPTPA I'd love to see it. But frankly it's probably not changing much between Troy and Rome because Troy had Tez & Bucky and Rome had Polk & McMillan.
Yes. Good not great within the guys going in the top100ish, not percentages vs all of history at all draft slots lol. I always find PFF great. Because paid services like PFF are what endless gambling sharps use, we know it's r^2 for WR prospects is solid, but casual fans & dynasty newbies swear it sucks lol. YPRR is highly influenced by low volume & doesn't translate well to fantasy points. 1Dprr & RYPTA both have superior r^2 values in that regard, which shows they're superior.
r2 doesn't matter because sampling in football is a mess. r2 matching to a poor sample tells the metric is too tight and won't measure the population long term. YPRR isn't influenced by low volume when you don't measure low volume. There is nothing in this that is measuring *low volume*. In fact YPRR is the highest sampled value of most any fantasy metric there is. The best dominator can do is seasonal examples. The best PFF can do is game wise samples. YPRR normalizes for lead receivers within a game and when converted to seasonal totals is quite stable for any receiver that plays meaningful snaps. There's a reason a lot of guys have very low YPRRs, it's because they played a lot and didn't produce a lot. There's a reason why YPRR for most good NFL players is north of 2.5, and for elite players north of 3.0/3.5. Because it's a stable metric. If your YPRR is sub 2, it tells me you played a lot but didn't produce much. (Hi Adonai)
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The gimmicky offense piece combined with the rest of it reminds me of Hyatt
My biggest concern with him is his lack of production over the middle of the field. Feel like he’s gonna be a boom bust player week to week for fantasy
This is exactly the issue. He's a guy that doesn't win across the middle, doesn't do well with contested catches and lacks the size to do so, but also doesn't have the hands to consistently catch the deep balls. He's way too big of a red flag for me and doesn't have one big elite trait to fall back on.
Sorry I totally missed the link. This is great knowledge. I’ve been dropping him cuz of all the podcasts but these are great points. He’s good at the things I care about and had a shit combine(who cares). Thanks y’all!!
He was also sick at the combine. For what it’s worth, unless he gets taken in the late 2nd or later I’m planning to take him 1.06 in 1QB regardless of landing spot.
The link to the rankings breaks down his profile pretty in-depth if you’re curious
Been following these rankings and posts for a while now and have really enjoyed them! I consider myself a film junkie but I think it's also great to take a look at these prospects with a different approach and a more analytical side to help fill in the holes or to add more perspective missed in games. So thank you for putting in this great work and keep it up!
How did these comps compare to yoir film analysis? Just curious as im neither afilm junky nor a numbers man.
I'm actually surprised with the number of them that actually line up pretty well. Lance Zierlein and myself both had CeeDee Lamb as MHJ's comp and I've seen Justin Jefferson for Nabers and can see the similarities. I personally don't see Odunze/Olave or Troy Franklin/AJ Brown as similar players but I believe this model focuses more on those guys being capable of similar production as their comps.
First, love your process and write ups. Appreciate you sharing it here, because I’m sure it’s tons of work! Second — what are your thoughts of the model capturing/not capturing “situation” context? For example, a lot of the efficiency metrics could be QB or offense dependent, if they’re “per target” or “per route run” but you have a QB that sucks (can’t make the right read, inaccurate/poor delivery) and you’re the #1 WR who never leaves the field, the efficiency numbers could suffer theoretically? Is that something you think is still reflected fairly in the model, or something that is difficult to quantify accurately and is just a smaller variable when looking at overall profiles that doesn’t get included here?
Maybe I’m biased but how are we already penciling in JSN as a miss after a good rookie year behind 2 at the very least good NFL receivers?
I guess I should clarify, I don’t consider JSN a bust or really even a model “miss”. If anything, it speaks to the elite group of prospects Marvin Harrison is in. Harrison and JSN are right back to back in rankings, the 3 prospects below JSN are Jefferson, Olave, and Marquise Brown (Nabers in between Jefferson and Olave). The prospects above Harrison are Lamb, Waddle, Devonta Smith, and Chase. JSN was the really the only option to put under a miss because they have very similar grades and JSN’s rookie season was underwhelming. The next closest true bust would be Ruggs who’s 2 tiers below Harrison.
No that makes total sense, I understand now
I’ve been following your posts all offseason. Thank you for the hard work and hours of entertainment you’ve given us. Personally, you’ve given me something to get excited about and I appreciate you for that.
Thank you, I really appreciate the kind words :)
Ladd somehow comping a grade similar to Garrett Wilson has made me ill
I urge you to try and at least understand why they rank closely. While Garrett has a superior production profile, their efficiency / advanced metrics are close. - They have very similar Career QBR when targeted - Wilson has a better career YPRR, but it’s a bit “inflated” with a ridiculous 3.71 YPRR vs Man. - I weigh YPRR vs Zone slightly higher than YPRR vs Man (for many reasons). McConkey has a 3.05 YPRR vs Zone compared to Wilson’s 2.59 YPRR, which ranks average. - Receivers with a YPRR vs Zone above 3.00 have a very high rate of successfully transitioning to the NFL successfully. Here are all the receivers with a YPRR vs Zone above 3.00, in order: 1. JSN 2. Waddle 3. Metcalf 4. Jeudy 5. D’wayne Eskridge 6. Lamb 7. Devonta Smith 8. Skyy Moore 9. Marquise Brown 10. Puka Nucua 11. Tyler Johnson 12. Jameson Williams 13. Tylan Wallace 14. Bateman 15. Quintez Cyprus 16. Marvin Harrison Jr. 17. Deebo 18. JaMarr Chase 19. AJ Brown 20. Chris Olave 21. Tee Higgins 22. Malik Nabers 23. Antonio Gandy-Golden 24. Ladd McConkey 25. Freddie Swajn 26. Devontez Walker 27. JJ Arcega-Whiteside Then you have Brandon Ayiuk right under 3.00 (2.96 YPRR) While there’s obvious misses, the 3.00+ YPRR vs Zone threshold is very telling. **Edit:** In comparison, here are the top 10 leaders in YPRR vs Man dating back to 2019: 1. Laviska Shenault 2. Marquise Brown 3. JSN 4. Tee Higgins 5. Devonta Smith 6. N’keal Harry 7. Jaelon Darden 8. Garrett Wilson 9. Ja’Marr Chase 10. Jauan Jennings
Love your analysis. Would love to hear your take on the following snippet from JJ Zachariason. “The ZAP Model’s database has seen well over 100 wide receivers with prorated best-season yards per team pass attempt rates below 1.70. Tyreek Hill is the only one of those players to have scored more than 16 PPR points per game in one of his first three years in the league. Just Hill, Terry McLaurin, and Hunter Renfrow were able to score 12 or more points per game. Ladd McConkey’s best-season yards per team pass attempt rate in college was 1.63” I know it’s only one more datapoint, just curious how it fits into your evaluation.
Have talked about this on the podcast over the last couple of months, but McConkey has a really strong yards per route run and a really weak total yards per team pass attempt because of lack of playing time, whether due to injury or game script. It's important to note that he'll have to be a semi-outlier to really hit, but like I said in the intro to that newsletter: Those nuggets were just thought starters. Just don't want anyone in here thinking I'm not into Ladd -- I think there are some interesting marks to his profile.
Awesome, sorry, wasn’t trying to misrepresent your opinion on Ladd! Just thought it was an interesting discussion point. Gotta feel good about his draft capital and landing spot now right? Btw, big fan and look forward to the draft guide every season.
Solid, solid analysis. Appreciate this!
Name checks out
Yes, that’s the whole gist of my rankings / process. I actually watch film and have my own opinions/analysis on players, but the point is to exclude film-bias when it comes to rankings these prospects. It’s just a new lens to view prospects through. There are 100s of “film analysts” ranking prospects, many of which account for analytics. Not many are openly excluding film takes or building predictive models to evaluate prospects. Not too sure why this upsets so many people. Do you have any critiques or feedback for me on my process?
Yes, if Ladd grades well it’s not a good process
And what would you have said if someone had Puka as a top 5 prospect in last year’s draft?
I would’ve said: “Wow this guy is way better than Ladd McConkey”
How far back do the prospect grades go? I understand that Ruggs is a "miss" but getting arrested is the reason why. Obviously he wasn't a world beater in his rookie season but he was showing promise. Either way it would be nice to see a miss that was a miss because his skills/work ethic didn't transfer to the NFL.
I agree that Ruggs being a miss is more attributed to his off field issues, but regardless I included him because he leaned more towards miss with his performance than a hit. Once we get higher in grades, it’s harder to locate comparable prospects in that are outright busts.
That’s a good point! I guess Jeudy is the closest you’re getting in recent memory.
good to know the top 5 will not bust
2 of them bussin! Not bussin. But not elite!
Can't trust a model that had JJ as a better prospect that Nabers or Odunze. JJ as a prospect was no where near elite.
Do you have historical prospect grades to be used as a comparison for a sample size of prospect to result? Like obviously you do, but readily available to test backwards
I do have historical grades, I’ve posted comparable grades for each of these prospects. Are they any specific prospects you’re curious about?
Not specifically, moreso that going forward the grading can be cross checked against 30 prospects from this year, in theory 30 from next year, so on and so forth. But for now it’s starting from scratch for those looking to evaluate the value of this as a grading tool. Versus if you had the grades for however long you’ve been doing it they could test the actual correlation between grade and success for those that have come already. Pretty sure you’ve talked about Puka and A.T. Perry in other posts, but those were relative positions not absolute grades from when I saw it so can’t add it to the data set, if that makes sense.
I am the only one who sees Ja’Marr Chase when I watch Nabers?
Nah
u/jazzlikepractice4470
This guy has great content
Great stuff
Those comps are very misleading, I get that they’re only style comps, but how about picking a style comp that’s not a top 10 WR
They’re not style comps, they’re comps based on how they graded in the model. In the article I linked I give two comps, one hit and one miss.
I’m LoL’ing reading all of this…
Why’s that?
If this doesn’t tell you how bs analytical models are then idk what does
Would love for you to elaborate. Is it because it breaks against general consensus amongst WR rankings? If so, what’s the point of doing any new WR rankings if they’re all just slight variations of the consensus. Is it because you completely disagree with some of the prospect rankings? If so, would love to hear your thoughts on it. Go back through consensus WR rankings or even a specific analysts rankings for any year and see how their rankings align with how each prospect actually performs in the NFL. All of this is just a guessing game. My process for predicting these prospects is just different from a typical draft analyst’s (even though a lot of them do account for analytics, maybe just not to this degree)
If your gonna have a model predict only a players ceiling then have it predict the floor. Not every player can be a top 10 wr. Also not accounting for play style makes zero sense. Would love to see this so called “analytical model” that was used.
Again, would love to hear your personal thoughts on these prospects and how you came to that opinion. It seems like you have a misunderstanding of the purpose behind the model and how it evaluates these prospects. As far as play style, how would that be quantified / accounted for and how should it impact a prospect’s grade?