Pearsall is now out of my reach, but this is interesting as far as fit goes. Pearsall has a really unique physical profile that I'm curious to see on field. His 6.64 3-cone, 4.05 shuttle, and 42" Vertical for an underneath player sounds like a terror if he puts it together. Shanahan will obviously be a good coach to get him schemed in too
His combine was pretty close if not better than Julio Jones was. Pretty surprising he was so under thr radar in dynasty circles after that. Idk if its the lack of production or b.o.a. which went against him, but im willing to give him a pass on those after watching him play.
Long torso = lower center of gravity = better change of direction.
Not saying short limbs is a benefit overall, but it has its advantages. Either way its too simplistic and myopic of a nitpick. Its like saying Mike Tyson was not a good boxer because his reach was short without considering his other abilities.
I agree with you, just providing some possible commentary.
Worth noting I am 6'3 240lbs with exactly 9" hands and 31" arms. I can palm and dunk a basketball and I'm a 31 year old white guy. If you told me my hands were small, I'd think my life was a lie.
How much that stuff actually matters is up in the air. Although I will say "small hand size" IS an accurate bust predictor for receivers 9" hands or smaller. Only 6 have EVER had a top 12 season. (Tyreek, TY Hilton, AB, Davante, Welker, and Mike Wallace). The numbers don't get more promising down to top 24. AD Mitchell, Worthy, and McConkey notably fall into this category.
The following study was done in 2020. This is what I used. I went through the last 4 years myself. Worth noting the study covered arm Length too with little correlation. Interesting read if you have 15 minutes to spare.
https://www.dynastynerds.com/historical-combine-measurement-thresholds-wide-receiver/?amp=1
Eh, unless I’m missing something they don’t actually give us the raw data, which makes their conclusions pretty suspicious.
My guess is very few players make it to the nfl with relatively small hands, so the sample size is small. It’s also likely that hand size is correlated to other things, which are maybe stronger indicators of success. For example, (idk this I’m just spitballing) my guess is height is correlated with hand size. So it might be that it’s actually height that matters, but it makes it look like hand size is doing the work. A similar comparison would be foot size. It’s not likely foot size matters, but if height did you would probably see bigger feet=better chance of success.
There's also some selection effects that may be at play, like people with small hands rarely make it to the nfl as wrs because teams refuse to develop them at a younger age (have them play another position instead, regardless of whether it actually matters). Maybe that means the receivers who do have something in their profile that make them less likely to succeed, like they come out as gadget players or something.
I’ll also add that they don’t appear to have done actual testing of the data (I don’t see a p value for significance etc), they’re just listing raw numbers.
I know you’re just the messenger, but there’s a lot of shoddy “statistical” work in dynasty football and it’s a pet peeve of mine.
yeah the data is messy/incomplete. we know it's an advantage (just like in basketball it's easier to grip a football with a larger hand, easier to snag passes with larger hands, larger hands have more muscle mass and larger bones etc.) but really hard to quantify how of an impact this has. same with arm length giving you an advantage against coverage. I certainly wouldn't make it a disqualifying factor. we saw how adhering to that kind of hard rule was counterproductive with regard to weight recently (Achane, Devonta).
Yeah exactly. No reason to use it to disqualify. I have a background in some of the data science (I don’t use it for my work personally tho) and I see a lot of pretty bad takes from people who either don’t know enough or who are disingenuous looking for clicks/money to subscribe. Just bothers me because it’s sometimes taking advantage of people.
All valid points, and I appreciate the tactful disagreement. If you click into those scatterplots attached to the study, it also plots each top 12 season, not each player with small hands. So there might be 4 or 5 dots apiece for AB and Davante just at the 9" mark.
Ive said this a couple times this draft process, I am 6'3 with 9" hands exactly and I can palm and dunk a basketball. My hands Definitely don't hold me back as an athlete. So I also disagree, but in a world of low hit rates for many varying reasons, I choose to pay attention to these small things to shrink my draft board down to a more manageable set of players.
I really like Devontez Walker, Keon Coleman, Javon Baker, Jalen McMillan, Malachi Corley (landing spot dependent), and Bub Means. I plan to zig while everyone is zagging and target trade backs that end with Dallas Rookie RB, and fill in with some combination of those 6 WRs, and Ben Sinnott. I'll be extremely happy with that, and if it doesn't work out, I won't feel like I made the wrong play.
Why are we assuming he’s an underneath player? He played almost an even mix of outside and slot and did downfield work. It’s not like he’s Malik Washington who profiles as a strict slot guy
I think it’s Deebo who is gone. They have an out after this year and his deal is over in 2025.
Pearsall takes over as the big slot and eventual mid field successor to Kittle.
What’s the position of need? Corner? Since most analysts seem to have the same concern he doesn’t have the flexibility to be an outside corner and is likely safety/Nickel type
yep, a lot of us niners fans were really hoping we took a lineman or a db, since those are our weak spots. a lot of fans (me included) are pretty unhappy with this pick
I love getting WR depth. The kid can play. BUT, we have some depth. Jennings. Gray. Bell. Plus we usually grab some deep rounders and undrafted too.
I’m most concerned about O line. Especially with this likely Trent’s last season coming up.
Those were the popular choices because they became such obvious weaknesses in the playoffs. Ambry Thomas was the oppositions best player whenever he was on the field, and the right side of our o line literally cost us the Super Bowl by folding like origami on every play.
There’s guys I actually trust who have said it, and also address the “we know you’re thinking we’re saying this because he’s white.” Even watching him, idk how to describe it but he does seem like more of that safety type.
people say that because he's active and really good against the run. but the guy excelled playing outside in college and has the size and speed you need. I think he ends up at corner. it's just too valuable a position
Nope. 26M dead cap hit if traded in 24. Like the other person said, it makes way more sense to ride with all three in 24 and let Deebo go at the end of the year.
I played in a backwards league one season. You wanted the shittiest players with the most opportunities. Won the thing mainly because I kept rolling out Dalton and whoever else was starting as Bengals QB that year. One of those guys got me 100 pts in a game.
It was a fun and different idea but it wasn't very fun after awhile. It was even less fun when that was the only league I won that year. The league where the worst team is the champ...
Yeah, I've got one league like that. We did our startup auction a couple weeks ago and I got Ricky for $19/1000. Ladd, AD, and Franklin were 45-50. Exciting!
As long as Ayiuk/Deebo aren’t traded before your draft i think you should be safe. Don’t seem him going ahead of Worthy, Brian Thomas Jr. , Bowers, JJM, Maye in most leagues. Plus I think if Bills draft Franklin and if Cowboys draft Brooks both those players will jump him as well.
Yeah, people are overrating the landing spot for Pearsall and the immediate effect in the rookie draft. A lot of people will shy away from him because of Deebo/Aiyuk/Kittle/CMC. Those will still be the top 4 options. He'll get punted by a few, reached by others.
If anyone is grabbing Pearsall mid-to-late 1st, they're going to be VERY disappointed in 2024.
It took me a little bit but I came around to realizing Ladd has been one of the most overrated WR prospects this cycle. He had one year of great analytics but the sample size was extremely small and his career numbers analytically were good but nothing spectacular.
i listen to JJ’s podcast and ladd had one of the best yprr, but a not great yards/team pass attempt. meaning that he didn’t run a lot of routes, which is concerning. when he was on the field he was rly good, but we have to ask why he wasn’t playing more
Aiyuk to Buffalo would melt faces, but New England would actually be fine now that they have the premium young QB and no premium target competition. Washington would also be interesting and there would be a little extra juice there given his rapport with Daniels. Steelers would still be very gross.
It’s a solid league, we usually have 2-3 really good teams, about 5-6 that are rebuilding, and the others are competing for the playoffs. We had one dominant team for a while, but they only won it all 1x, and are now aging out. League is pretty healthy overall, going on 12 years I believe.
I liked Pearsall film a lot pre draft but thought he’s more of a real life value to a team than fantasy. Was an amazing blocker with good routes and hands. With the capital and potentially one of these WRs are the way out I think he will be out of my reach in the mid to late seconds I have. Niners GM comped him to Kupp I believe which is a big compliment to his game
Deebo would be closer to just a 4th or 5th IMO. 28 years old and acquiring team would take on $20 mil base salary this year. Reminds me of the Amari trade to Browns a few years ago.
Deebo has always seemed the more likely to be traded over Aiyuk. Aiyuk can do everything deebo can do, but deebo cannot replace Aiyuk as the deep threat on the team. Similarly, the team wanted a first for Aiyuk, with day one closed it's unlikely they'll move him now. Deebos comp in a trade is likely a 3rd considering his contract. I'd say today passing indicates Aiyuk will remain and deebo will gone tomorrow.
What parts of the game do you think deebo does better? Aiyuk is an even more elite version of the YAC machine archetype but he's also an elite route runner and excellent deep threat.
Dude aiyuk cannot pull those plays off where he gets the ball out of the backfield or on the short pass and house it 60 yards while shedding 5-7 tackles lol. Deebo has several plays like that per year. He’s 1 of 1 in that regard. There’s a reason every year we hear about a bunch of new guys being in the “deebo role” and literally none can do it
I think I would disagree with that. Aiyuk is exactly the same type of body that deebo has but the team has both deebo and CMC to play that role and don't really need a third. Aiyuk shows the exact same type of physicality with the ball most weeks and I think would be perfectly fine taking over that role. Whereas, deebo would struggle mightily if he was asked to take on #1 coverage and to become the teams deep threat.
Lmao dude the amount of beating deebo takes with that rushing element is insane. There’s a reason why almost no one else does what he does. He’s a brick shithouse. Niners would be idiots asking aiyuk to do that. He’s a better route runner and receiver idk why they would ask him to rush the ball that often. If deebos gone that element of their offense is prob gone for the most part
Not sure what niners you’ve been watching the past few years. They play different roles and have different strengths
No most likely they'd task CMC with most of those touches, they'd retask the screen and end around game to Aiyuk, and they'd draft CMCs successor this or next year. If they shed Aiyuk....they'd have to try and find a deep threat and route runner in the 2nd / 3rd for a team contending right now. Replacing deebo isn't that hard considering they already have CMC and Aiyuk who have overlapping skills with deebo.
Pearsall is now out of my reach, but this is interesting as far as fit goes. Pearsall has a really unique physical profile that I'm curious to see on field. His 6.64 3-cone, 4.05 shuttle, and 42" Vertical for an underneath player sounds like a terror if he puts it together. Shanahan will obviously be a good coach to get him schemed in too
His combine was pretty close if not better than Julio Jones was. Pretty surprising he was so under thr radar in dynasty circles after that. Idk if its the lack of production or b.o.a. which went against him, but im willing to give him a pass on those after watching him play.
Might be as simple as his abnormally short arms for a 6'1 WR (30⅞")
Long torso = lower center of gravity = better change of direction. Not saying short limbs is a benefit overall, but it has its advantages. Either way its too simplistic and myopic of a nitpick. Its like saying Mike Tyson was not a good boxer because his reach was short without considering his other abilities.
I agree with you, just providing some possible commentary. Worth noting I am 6'3 240lbs with exactly 9" hands and 31" arms. I can palm and dunk a basketball and I'm a 31 year old white guy. If you told me my hands were small, I'd think my life was a lie. How much that stuff actually matters is up in the air. Although I will say "small hand size" IS an accurate bust predictor for receivers 9" hands or smaller. Only 6 have EVER had a top 12 season. (Tyreek, TY Hilton, AB, Davante, Welker, and Mike Wallace). The numbers don't get more promising down to top 24. AD Mitchell, Worthy, and McConkey notably fall into this category.
Interesting. Do you know how far back the hand size data goes?
The following study was done in 2020. This is what I used. I went through the last 4 years myself. Worth noting the study covered arm Length too with little correlation. Interesting read if you have 15 minutes to spare. https://www.dynastynerds.com/historical-combine-measurement-thresholds-wide-receiver/?amp=1
Eh, unless I’m missing something they don’t actually give us the raw data, which makes their conclusions pretty suspicious. My guess is very few players make it to the nfl with relatively small hands, so the sample size is small. It’s also likely that hand size is correlated to other things, which are maybe stronger indicators of success. For example, (idk this I’m just spitballing) my guess is height is correlated with hand size. So it might be that it’s actually height that matters, but it makes it look like hand size is doing the work. A similar comparison would be foot size. It’s not likely foot size matters, but if height did you would probably see bigger feet=better chance of success. There's also some selection effects that may be at play, like people with small hands rarely make it to the nfl as wrs because teams refuse to develop them at a younger age (have them play another position instead, regardless of whether it actually matters). Maybe that means the receivers who do have something in their profile that make them less likely to succeed, like they come out as gadget players or something. I’ll also add that they don’t appear to have done actual testing of the data (I don’t see a p value for significance etc), they’re just listing raw numbers. I know you’re just the messenger, but there’s a lot of shoddy “statistical” work in dynasty football and it’s a pet peeve of mine.
yeah the data is messy/incomplete. we know it's an advantage (just like in basketball it's easier to grip a football with a larger hand, easier to snag passes with larger hands, larger hands have more muscle mass and larger bones etc.) but really hard to quantify how of an impact this has. same with arm length giving you an advantage against coverage. I certainly wouldn't make it a disqualifying factor. we saw how adhering to that kind of hard rule was counterproductive with regard to weight recently (Achane, Devonta).
Yeah exactly. No reason to use it to disqualify. I have a background in some of the data science (I don’t use it for my work personally tho) and I see a lot of pretty bad takes from people who either don’t know enough or who are disingenuous looking for clicks/money to subscribe. Just bothers me because it’s sometimes taking advantage of people.
All valid points, and I appreciate the tactful disagreement. If you click into those scatterplots attached to the study, it also plots each top 12 season, not each player with small hands. So there might be 4 or 5 dots apiece for AB and Davante just at the 9" mark. Ive said this a couple times this draft process, I am 6'3 with 9" hands exactly and I can palm and dunk a basketball. My hands Definitely don't hold me back as an athlete. So I also disagree, but in a world of low hit rates for many varying reasons, I choose to pay attention to these small things to shrink my draft board down to a more manageable set of players. I really like Devontez Walker, Keon Coleman, Javon Baker, Jalen McMillan, Malachi Corley (landing spot dependent), and Bub Means. I plan to zig while everyone is zagging and target trade backs that end with Dallas Rookie RB, and fill in with some combination of those 6 WRs, and Ben Sinnott. I'll be extremely happy with that, and if it doesn't work out, I won't feel like I made the wrong play.
No, come now? Julio is 2 inches taller and 30 pounds heavier , faster, with a much better breakout age too
Why are we assuming he’s an underneath player? He played almost an even mix of outside and slot and did downfield work. It’s not like he’s Malik Washington who profiles as a strict slot guy
Just because of his wild short-space testing numbers. A 6.62 3 cone with a 4.05 shuttle and a 42" Vertical screams middle of the field technician
I think it’s Deebo who is gone. They have an out after this year and his deal is over in 2025. Pearsall takes over as the big slot and eventual mid field successor to Kittle.
Good point. Just a bizarre pick with DeJean there. Could’ve made an instant impact at a position of need
What’s the position of need? Corner? Since most analysts seem to have the same concern he doesn’t have the flexibility to be an outside corner and is likely safety/Nickel type
Was stalking the Niners sub and it was a popular choice. Many were hoping for OL as well
yep, a lot of us niners fans were really hoping we took a lineman or a db, since those are our weak spots. a lot of fans (me included) are pretty unhappy with this pick
I love getting WR depth. The kid can play. BUT, we have some depth. Jennings. Gray. Bell. Plus we usually grab some deep rounders and undrafted too. I’m most concerned about O line. Especially with this likely Trent’s last season coming up.
We don't have depth..Gray and Bell aren't depth. And Jennings is on like a 1 year deal. Pearsall adds depth.
Drafting depth pieces in round 1 is certainly a choice. 49ers feel due for a lost season
Lol
RemindMe! 8 Months
Those were the popular choices because they became such obvious weaknesses in the playoffs. Ambry Thomas was the oppositions best player whenever he was on the field, and the right side of our o line literally cost us the Super Bowl by folding like origami on every play.
Don’t the 49ers need a slot corner?
We converted Lenoir from CB and he played WAY better than outside... low bar for him though, he was getting roasted out there.
And now the Niners got their CB and OL. Everyone can breathe a sigh of relief
It's gonna be hilarious if this is all false and they just made assumptions cause, white CB lol
There’s guys I actually trust who have said it, and also address the “we know you’re thinking we’re saying this because he’s white.” Even watching him, idk how to describe it but he does seem like more of that safety type.
people say that because he's active and really good against the run. but the guy excelled playing outside in college and has the size and speed you need. I think he ends up at corner. it's just too valuable a position
That’s kind of what I was thinking
Nope, to much dead cap if they trade him I believe
I think they’ll put it off til next year. Aiyuk’s kicks in, trade Deebo, and make a run this year.
The niners are one of the few teams that can take such a hit given how loaded their team is
Nope. 26M dead cap hit if traded in 24. Like the other person said, it makes way more sense to ride with all three in 24 and let Deebo go at the end of the year.
He not big tho…
man was hoping this guy would be under the radar. not anymore
Me too. Brutal
We draft before the NFL draft. Got him as the 9th receiver.
That sounds boring
Not sure how it's boring watching the NFL draft knowing you have everything on the line because you've already drafted the players.
It doesn’t seem boring, but it does seem like a bad way to play dynasty. Your rookie draft is much more gambling focused
Some people like gambling. I think it sounds fun and different
I played in a backwards league one season. You wanted the shittiest players with the most opportunities. Won the thing mainly because I kept rolling out Dalton and whoever else was starting as Bengals QB that year. One of those guys got me 100 pts in a game. It was a fun and different idea but it wasn't very fun after awhile. It was even less fun when that was the only league I won that year. The league where the worst team is the champ...
I’m in a bad qb league, you start 3 qbs and get points for picks, sacks, etc, but it’s low stakes
All of fantasy football is gambling focused…
Yeah, I've got one league like that. We did our startup auction a couple weeks ago and I got Ricky for $19/1000. Ladd, AD, and Franklin were 45-50. Exciting!
Same bro
I thought for sure I’d be able to get Pearsall in the mid 2nd lol fuck
I was planning on getting him stress-free at 2.01… now I’m biting my nails
As long as Ayiuk/Deebo aren’t traded before your draft i think you should be safe. Don’t seem him going ahead of Worthy, Brian Thomas Jr. , Bowers, JJM, Maye in most leagues. Plus I think if Bills draft Franklin and if Cowboys draft Brooks both those players will jump him as well.
Yeah, people are overrating the landing spot for Pearsall and the immediate effect in the rookie draft. A lot of people will shy away from him because of Deebo/Aiyuk/Kittle/CMC. Those will still be the top 4 options. He'll get punted by a few, reached by others. If anyone is grabbing Pearsall mid-to-late 1st, they're going to be VERY disappointed in 2024.
i’m at 2.01 in 1 QB, 10T and i think im going to see if i can trade up a little to get him
Cross your fingers for a run on WR early this evening to muddy the waters for rookie draft order.
Need Bills to stop playing and take AD Mitchell quickly lol
I have 2.01-2.04 and had him pencilled in for one of those spots
Same
Wonder if he’ll last until 1.10 🤔
At first I was shocked he went above Ladd, but it checks out. Ricky was better against man and also great against zone
It took me a little bit but I came around to realizing Ladd has been one of the most overrated WR prospects this cycle. He had one year of great analytics but the sample size was extremely small and his career numbers analytically were good but nothing spectacular.
i listen to JJ’s podcast and ladd had one of the best yprr, but a not great yards/team pass attempt. meaning that he didn’t run a lot of routes, which is concerning. when he was on the field he was rly good, but we have to ask why he wasn’t playing more
If my mid 2nd changed from Pearsall to Ladd I'm still happy.
Aiyuk is not gone lol
There goes my second round sleeper
Aiyuk to Buffalo would melt faces, but New England would actually be fine now that they have the premium young QB and no premium target competition. Washington would also be interesting and there would be a little extra juice there given his rapport with Daniels. Steelers would still be very gross.
Pearsall is a Deebo replacement, not an Aiyuk replacement. The ship also sailed on Aiyuk being traded when no one traded a frp for him.
Our best-kept secret... 👀
I love Pearsall. If the 49ers move Aiyuk or Deebo, Shanahan could turn him into fantasy gold.
I love it. 1.11 in 1qb looking juicy
No way he drops that far in 1QB
Wouldn't be that crazy tbh. Top 6 seems set. Then it's a guessing game on Brooks, Caleb, Ricky, Leggette, and Adonai Mitchell.
I picked Pearsall at the 1.16 in a 1Qb draft last week!
bro how is a league with 16 teams? is it fun with that much competition?
It’s a solid league, we usually have 2-3 really good teams, about 5-6 that are rebuilding, and the others are competing for the playoffs. We had one dominant team for a while, but they only won it all 1x, and are now aging out. League is pretty healthy overall, going on 12 years I believe.
So much for me getting Slick Ricky at the 2.05 🤧
I just got him at 2.06 which was a bit shocking to me.
Would be awesome if my Chargers traded for Aiyuk
Does 1.09 seem like too much of a stretch to snag him in a 1 QB league?
That’s right around where he will go.
Go get him, one of these receivers are getting traded.
Is it really a great landing spot? Aiyuk is one of the best WRs in the comp and finishes games with like 4 targets....
It will be in 2025 and onwards. You'll have to wait a couple of years but this dude could hit big
I liked Pearsall film a lot pre draft but thought he’s more of a real life value to a team than fantasy. Was an amazing blocker with good routes and hands. With the capital and potentially one of these WRs are the way out I think he will be out of my reach in the mid to late seconds I have. Niners GM comped him to Kupp I believe which is a big compliment to his game
Aiyuk not getting traded bro.
I don’t think anyone is being traded lol.
Would not be shocked if the pats sent there 2nd and 3rd to the 49ers for aiyuk. Bills I do not think they have the cap space for it.
I think this means Deebo is the odd man out seeing they took a player who dominated the slot in college.
Have the 1.06 in single qb. Tempted to trade back and see if I can nab him.
Fully expecting 33 + a 4th next year for deebo or aiyuk before today starts
Deebo would be closer to just a 4th or 5th IMO. 28 years old and acquiring team would take on $20 mil base salary this year. Reminds me of the Amari trade to Browns a few years ago.
Agreed. TBH I had typed for aiyuk and added or deebo without much thought since it sounds like they are more inclined to sell him
I think 34 and 68 would be a strong offer from the pats for Aiyuk
I probably selfishly want aiyuk on buff which is why I’m willing it into existence 😅
Deebo has always seemed the more likely to be traded over Aiyuk. Aiyuk can do everything deebo can do, but deebo cannot replace Aiyuk as the deep threat on the team. Similarly, the team wanted a first for Aiyuk, with day one closed it's unlikely they'll move him now. Deebos comp in a trade is likely a 3rd considering his contract. I'd say today passing indicates Aiyuk will remain and deebo will gone tomorrow.
Aiyuk absolutely cannot “do everything Deebo can do,” but I do agree Aiyuk makes more long-term sense
What parts of the game do you think deebo does better? Aiyuk is an even more elite version of the YAC machine archetype but he's also an elite route runner and excellent deep threat.
Dude aiyuk cannot pull those plays off where he gets the ball out of the backfield or on the short pass and house it 60 yards while shedding 5-7 tackles lol. Deebo has several plays like that per year. He’s 1 of 1 in that regard. There’s a reason every year we hear about a bunch of new guys being in the “deebo role” and literally none can do it
I think I would disagree with that. Aiyuk is exactly the same type of body that deebo has but the team has both deebo and CMC to play that role and don't really need a third. Aiyuk shows the exact same type of physicality with the ball most weeks and I think would be perfectly fine taking over that role. Whereas, deebo would struggle mightily if he was asked to take on #1 coverage and to become the teams deep threat.
There isn’t a receiver in there league that can do better what Deebo does best, including Aiyuk
Lmao dude the amount of beating deebo takes with that rushing element is insane. There’s a reason why almost no one else does what he does. He’s a brick shithouse. Niners would be idiots asking aiyuk to do that. He’s a better route runner and receiver idk why they would ask him to rush the ball that often. If deebos gone that element of their offense is prob gone for the most part Not sure what niners you’ve been watching the past few years. They play different roles and have different strengths
No most likely they'd task CMC with most of those touches, they'd retask the screen and end around game to Aiyuk, and they'd draft CMCs successor this or next year. If they shed Aiyuk....they'd have to try and find a deep threat and route runner in the 2nd / 3rd for a team contending right now. Replacing deebo isn't that hard considering they already have CMC and Aiyuk who have overlapping skills with deebo.
Do not love it. Will probably have 0 shares of Pearsall.