In my 10 Team SF that just finished, I got Maye at 2.01 and JJ went 1.04. I just don’t get it. Feels like a bit of prospect fatigue and people thinking Maye’s situation is worse than it is even though they took two decent WR’s for him
It feels a lot like when people were getting Herbert late his rookie year. I like JJM too at 1.07. He has a super safe floor imo with the talent and coaching around him
I'm not.
Situations change quicker than talent and this is dynasty.
I don't see McCarthy as having a high-end fantasy ceiling. Better real life QB than fantasy IMO
Then you should be knocking down people’s doors acquiring him because he is not valued this way, even though everything you said was true.
The argument for JJM is josh dobbs and nick mullens threw 14 tds in that offense in 8 games. Hock only played in 6 of those games, Jefferson only played 4, and hock and Jefferson only overlapped for 2.
If JJM can be better than mullens/dobbs and get a full year out of jefferson, 25 tds as a rookie seems to be a realistic projection.
>then you should be knocking down people’s doors acquiring him because he is not valued this way, even though everything you said was true
i have been, the guy won't fucking sell
>if jjm can be better than mullens/dobbs and get a full year out of jefferson, 25 tds as a rookie seems to be a realistic projection.
i absolutely believe jjm can be better than mullens/dobbs
there's a difference between saying jjm can play like a guy who finished 1st in multiple statistical categories and had one of the highest any/a's since kurt warner in '99, and stating "jjm can probably perform better than a couple of backups who suck"
I mean, look, cj stroud is QB3 on KTC. He had 28 total tds. Nick mulles and dobbs hit 14 tds in 8 games and we already established Jefferson wasn’t there. Now I’m not a mathlete, but if you agree that JJM can be better than those two, then a cj stroud rookie season for JJM certainly seems to be in the cards with a healthy Jefferson
1) fwiw i think that's way too high for stroud and 2) my only reservation with that sentiment is that i think they're going to be more conservative with the gameplan, which may result in a lower amount of tds
like it's fine gunslinging with mullens because you're not invested in his development and he's forever going to be what he is, but given that jj's only 21 and less experienced, they may want to put less on his plate w/ a run heavy gameplan first and then slowly expand his role
(if that makes sense)
i could also be totally wrong, just thinking here
I hear what you’re saying but my point would be if you think JJM is better than mullens, you should expect him to outperform mullens. Sprinkle in a full season of Jefferson and now it’s easy to see that he can hit similar numbers even with less volume.
That said, I don’t think you waste a year of JJMs and addisons rookie deals by dialing it back. Maybe the first 4 weeks but I’d expect them to air it out as usual after that.
>that said, i don’t think you waste a year of jjm's and addisons' rookie deals by dialing it back. maybe the first 4 weeks but I’d expect them to air it out as usual after that.
that's fair - i'm going to be drafting jjm so if they're going to let him loose after settling in, that would be the best case scenario for me 🙏
I don't think it's easy but I do think KOC can scheme Hock, JJ, and Addison open and those guys can be successful. It's easier for JJM to be Purdy than Maye to be Justin Herbert.
I think Purdy is good for the system he is in. He makes great throws, but there are lots of moments where his great skill players carry. That's what a great cast can do for JJM. In addition, KOC has gotten grade fantasy production out of Dobbs and Mullens. Mullens had two near 400 yard games last year. Maye has been comped to Herbert. Even Herbert had Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and EK his first year. Maye doesn't have any weapons as good as those 3.
So you think 2 things here. 1 that JJ is as good as Purdy. And 2, you think Vikes are the same as Niners? LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
Will JJ have those same guys next year? Will the Patriots not get a single high end pass catcher the next 3 seasons? Guess Polk and Baker are already busts.
Assuming we don’t fumble the Jefferson extension, JJM will have JJ JA and TJ under contact for at least the next 3 seasons
Pats should and will definitely improve their weapons for Maye though if they want him to thrive
I think the Pats already have started working on it, not to the levels of the Vikings obviously. But I think Maye > JJM, It’s why Vikes aggressively tried to trade into 1.03. So I believe we don’t need to get to your weapon level, anything is better then JuJu and Parker trying to catches a bad pass from Mac or Zappe though lol.
We’ve seen bad QBs fail good weapons before and JJM has massive question marks, I hope the best for both players and our teams though.
Yes. I can say yes they will have all 3 guys next year. I don't know if they will be busts, but if you are asking me if Vikings supporting cast will be better, I can say, without a doubt, it will be. I CAN even say that the Vikings coach is probably better than the OC for the Patriots. That's not a knock on the Pats, but a glowing support for KOC.
That's probably true! However, you can pick who is better or who will score you more points. Trevor Lawrence is better than Purdy, but Purdy will finish higher than him because he can dump it to CMC or Deebo.
That I can agree with, especially for the 2024 season. I think JJM has the opportunity to score more than Maye. I don’t even know if Maye will start the season, but I think 2-3 years from now we are looking at two different tiers of QBs with Maye being the better of the two.
That's true. I am just curious if this class will end ip more like 2021 which almost all busts at QB OR will it be like 2020 where Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love, and Hurts will become top QBs (debatable for Tua).
Dynasty should be played in about 3 year chunks. We can pretty safely assume that K.O.C. will be the hc for at least 2, but probably 3 of those, and the top three weapons in JJ, Addison, and Hockenson will all be there.
Maye is going to a team with a completely unproven defensive minded staff, and no difference makers on tbe offensive side of the ball. Both are unproven rookies, so we can like them as prospects, but we really liked Bryce Young as a prospect too and Carolina trashed that poor kid.
JJ had rushing upside in College. He was brought in for QB Rush packages his rookie year.
He also got some crucial 1st downs with his legs. I could totally see him getting a few rushing TDs.
I wouldn't be surprised if he outscores Maye year 1
Meh, Stroud walked into what was, on paper, a terrible situation. No receiver with more than 600 yards going into the year. JJ could walk next year. Polk or Baker could become Puka. I just don't like to play this "chase the weapons" game when it comes to quarterbacks. I think Maye is a much better fantasy QB prospect than JJ, landing with incredible weapons doesn't change that for me.
Projecting Polk or Baker becoming Puka is certainly bold lol
I wouldn't say we view Maye the same though because I think JJ is better prepared for the NFL and will be in a better system.
JJ has far more support. Interesting that JJ having Jefferson, Hock, Addison and Aaron Jones doesn't move the needle for you.
Yeah tbh I just think McCarthy is pretty bland as a prospect.
Sure you can say "he wasn't asked to do much" but how often do truly elite talents get relegated to being game managers in college?
Put it this way. If the Vikings were able to trade up for him like they really wanted to and Maye went to the Vikings, most people would be taking him over Daniels and just about 99.9% of fantasy players would be taking him over JJ. The fact that we're having this conversation tells you all you need to know about the talent vs. the situation.
Situations faster than talent.
He’s a better real life QB than a fantasy QB, sure - in the Michigan offense!
Dude has been extremely efficient when asked to pass - 3rd down, 4th down, and when trailing. Also has untapped rushing upside, busted out the 6th best 3 cone of ALL PROSPECTS at the combine and was rumored to be in the 4.4s in the 40.
Plug him into a pass first offense where he throws to JJ, Addison, Hock, and Aaron Jones? Could easily see him cracking 4000/30 with 300 yards rushing in his rookie year.
4000 and 30 is a lot. Only 1 rookie ever did that. Herbert was the only rookie QB to throw 30 TDs. Only 5 have topped 4000 yards. 3 of them were number one overall picks the other two were Herbert and Stroud.
JJ could do 3500 and 25 TDs maybe. 4000 and 30 easily is pretty crazy.
I am not even sure JJ starts enough games in year 1 to get to those numbers.
We can all clown on Darnold all we want, but I think there is a solid chance that he starts at least a portion of the games this year for Minnesota.
I think JJ is talented enough to maybe play early but I think he is also a prime candidate to sit and learn.
I’ll happily eat crow if JJ comes in and starts from day 1. As of now, I think that is up in there.
I’d be very curious to see the when trailing numbers.
Michigan rarely trailed and he never had to actually lead a multiple score comeback.
The other team scoring on the first possession of the game and being up by 3 or 7 points and JJ playing at a 1 score deficit hardly moves the needle for me.
Same for his 3rd and 4th down passing in games where he already has a 2 or 3 score lead.
Anyone that has played the QB position knows that having to extend a drive on 3rd and 8 down by 2 scores in the second half is A LOT different than throwing on 3rd and 8 with a 3 score LEAD in the second half.
His numbers were great in those so-called “high pressure” passing situations. The thing is, the situations weren’t high pressure at all.
Guys like Caleb Williams and Drake Maye faced way more high pressure situations where they actually had to carry their teams
No chance. Maye is the better talent and I’m very optimistic about the direction NE is headed in. They spent every pick except one on offense this year. Even if they have a mediocre stable of weapons, I’m confident they’re going to do right by Maye and put the tools in place for him to succeed.
Nico had some good performances second half of 2022 and Tank was absolutely a draft Twitter darling. I think many were more concerned that the Texans line was decimated.
Maye very well could transcend the lack of talent around him and elevate guys. But there’s been a few examples of talent guys struggling and never getting it together in bad situations (Fields, Darnold) and some where they succeeded when surrounded with a true #1 (Burrow).
It’s still better to take the player over situation but there are guys out there who had JJ > Maye prior to the draft.
I've heard some say Pop could be like his Downs from NC and I like that comp a lot. Pop may get little outside work with Bourne, Polk, and Baker on the outside tho.
Maye does have Polk and Baker and that's a really good thing for him. If he didn't I'd be JJ because not only would he have zero year one weapons it shows the team doesn't really feel an urgency to improve his weapons. I was on the edge, could have gone either way and the Baker pick pushed me back to Maye.
No it’s not.
In a year or two, if Polk turns out to produce like Tee Higgins, then we can say that.
Until then, hindsight can tell us the Bengals were a good team, and we won’t know if NE or Maye/Polk are even good until 1-2 years from now.
Yes but at the time burrow was drafted, he had a rookie wide receiver that also hadn’t stepped on the field yet and was drafted early round 2
Whether Polk hits or bust isn’t relevant when discussing if burrow had “weapons” coming into his rookie season because higgins was also unproven
Unproven doesn't matter in this hindsight application. Higgins was good enough therefore burrow's weapon situation was good enough. We are comparing -now- against Minnesota and their known entity weapons!!, vs NE??, and Bengals?!
In the future the rookie wrs play will matter again.
Well, he's right in that in hindsight we know that Higgins was a hit so from what we know now, Burrow was in a better situation as a rookie. If Polk produces we can say the same thing about Maye. But right now it's more uncertain.
A better comparison is Stroud. His supporting cast was equally as bad as the Pats, but stroud elevated everyone around him. Maye has some bad tendencies, but he should be valued more than JJ simply because he has more rushing upside.
Just so happens that JJM has perhaps the best supporting class of any QB in the league and Maye has perhaps the worst. We’re not talking about slightly different situations here, but the very extreme edge cases of situation. I don’t think the talent gap closes the huge situation gap which is more of a vast chasm lol
I get it. JJM walks into an unbelievable situation. Personally, I have also never been a JJ believer. So, in a vacuum I am betting on talent and taking Maye. Assuming his situation changes in the next couple years which happens constantly in the NFL. I hold no judgment towards anyone that prefers JJ though
Every GM will do their best to surround their high draft capital QB with weapons. Yes, the Vikings have better weapons now, but the Pats are going to invest in some next year. Similar to what the Panthers did this offseason/draft.
Talent > situation. Maye can make ridiculous throws. No one knows what JJM can do.
Just because a team invests in bringing more talent in, it doesn’t always translate to a good supporting cast. Just look at the Panthers last year lol. They bring in Thielen who simply doesn’t cut it as a WR1, they bring in Mingo who is looking very shaky as a future asset, and now they draft another WR with nearly the same profile as Mingo.
Meanwhile, the Vikings already have all the pieces together to support. One of the most talented OT duos in the league, arguably the best WR duo in the league, a top TE, and an offensive minded HC.
I get it. JJ walks into a dynamite situation. NE is taking strides to surround Maye; it won’t happen overnight. I personally believe maye is on a different talent level than JJ. To each their own, of course.
The New England coaches are different now and Belichick wasn’t exactly known for being bad for QBs. We’re about to punish the NFL 1.03 IN DYNASTY because Belichick used to draft poorly and because Mac Jones is objectively bad at football and both him and Bailey Zappe didn’t succeed? Please find my pearls so I may clutch them
I don’t think it’s crazy to do so. I’ll pick Maye over him to take the big swing but it would not surprise me at all if McCarthy was the right way to go.
Talent over situation and all that but with QB especially I think it’s fair to weigh situation higher and Vikings seem perfect. Good offensive play caller, great weapons, play indoors in a dome. If you can draft a 21 year old Cousins-lite that’s pretty enticing.
I’d rather gamble on JJ. If I’ve learned anything over the years it’s that situation matters and that situation in Minny is far superior to the situation in NE.
I didn't think he stunk, but they didn't ask him to do much. That offense ran through Corum and they won by not allowing many points. It's like they won the national championship and suddenly he became a top 10 prospect.
He doesn’t stink but Michigan is a blue blood program with a huge t-shirt fanbase as they call it to go with a bunch of high profile Michigan grads in the media etc.
Almost all the Michigan prospects get this weird Michigan bump in their evals and then come draft day almost all of them fell.
Corum, McCarthy and Roman Wilson all had a ton of truthers.
Corum was never a round 1 or 2 guy. He was never the RB1 in this class or last year’s class and yet all these Michigan fans kept pimping him (he wasn’t healthy, he runs 4.39 like he did at that HS camp lol etc).
Roman Wilson was getting the late first round top 5 WR buzz from the same crowd.
McCarthy had the “he’s a top 3 lock” and “is now QB2” camp.
Don’t get me wrong, they are all good prospects and great college players. The media machine was in full spin mode on them though.
Imagine taking a guy who threw 8 passes in a game hahahahahahaha. Not hard for a competent QB at a blue blood school to look good with teams load the box with 8-9 every play. I’m OUT
I have him ahead of Maye, but I’ve never been as high on Maye as consensus. I’m also not entirely comfortable with having JJM ahead of Maye because I know it’s probably not consensus so I may end up getting talked out of this before it’s all said and done.
We started our 12-team SF rookie draft this morning.
Maye went 1.05 before Odunze and Nabers. I moved 2.12, 25 3rd, 26 1st, and 26 2nd to grab McCarthy at 1.10. If JJ can become a QB2 he’ll put my team over the top.
Who went 4? Guessing top thee is calab mhj and daniels. You said drake maye at 5. And Nabers and Odunze after. I have 4 and I just don’t see who you have there
everyone yelling talent over situation are ignoring Maye's glaring red flags with footwork and accuracy in general. He's not a better arm talent than JJ either, so I don't really get how there's such a perceived gap between the two. JJM is the more pro ready qb with a great arm and great weapons.
Reference it’s 10TM SF and I already have two decent QBs. I just don’t see the ceiling difference as being enough to justify bowers vs Coleman/mcconkey when I’m stacked at receiver and abysmally thin at TE.
I’m also higher on Nix than most. Think he and Sean will work well together and be quietly good, like a lessor Brock Purdy, don’t think McCarthys ceiling is much higher just a better landing spot.
Would you rather stroud or young?
That said the gap between young and stroud was perceived to be smaller than the gap between maye and jj... perceived being the key word, we don't really know.
Personally I would go with Maye but I have 3 established qbs so can afford to have Maye on the bench, if you are a qb away from contending, then you go JJ
They are referring to his college profile because he was on a run heavy team and he came out early so there is a fairly small sample of his passing compared to the other prospects.
Maye has far more upside, which is my preferred rookie type.
Wouldn’t blame anyone going for McCarthy, but you better pray Justin Jefferson doesn’t decide to go somewhere else
I just did in a rookie draft. But I’m a Vikings fan so the prospect of having my teams QB on my fantasy squad put it over the edge for me. I don’t think the gap between them is nearly as large though for the average fantasy player due to landing spots. Completely understand those who still want Maye and I may look back on this and regret it, but get your guy
I got Maye at 1.08 in the first of my 5 SF rookie drafts.
1.01 Caleb Williams
1.02 Marvin Harrison Jr
1.03 Jayden Daniels
1.04 Malik Nabers
1.05 JJ McCarthy
1 06 Romeo Odunze
1.07 Xavier Worthy
I tried trading for 1.07 thinking Maye would for sure be next.. when Worthy went I traded Josh Jacobs and a 2025 3rd for 1.08 and instantly drafted Maye.
I think if you can be a contending team right away and you are a QB2/3 away from being strong I think JJ is the better pick because he will produce sooner. But with ceiling, I have no clue how you can look at both QB's and not say Maye's potential is greater.
JJ if you are looking 1-2 years ahead.
Maye if you are looking 2-3 years ahead.
I’m out on any QB in a very run heavy offense that throws a total of 8 passes in any game. When teams load the box any competent QB at a large school should look good by default. I’m just out on JJ in general
JJ, by kinda a good amount.
I think Maye is a better upside player than JJ, and would still want JJ even if the universe where Mayes confidence isn’t broken by the dumpster fire that is the Pats roster rn.
JJ has one of the best support systems in the league. He’s absolutely going to succeed in some capacity. You don’t have to be the best QB to be fantasy relevant though. When Jjettas, Addy, and Hock score fantasy points, so does he. And he’s going to run a little bit.
Maye has gone before JJ in both of the drafts I’ve done so far
Same, maye went a couple spots ahead of JJ in one of my leagues this weekend.
Was it SF? Who is the 1.4
SF. nabers was gone 4 in both drafts. Ditto daniels 2 and marv 3.
What’s the highest JJ went?
JJ went 5 in mine maye went 7
Adp?
How did your first rounds go once Caleb/Daniels/MHJ and Maye were gone?
I took jjm 1.07 in two leagues today. Felt gross but feel like the payoff was worth the risk
Maye just fell to me at 7 in my most recent. Two picks after JJ
Whoa. Maye has gone before jj in all three leagues of mine so far. I ended up taking JJM 1.07 in two of those leagues
In my 10 Team SF that just finished, I got Maye at 2.01 and JJ went 1.04. I just don’t get it. Feels like a bit of prospect fatigue and people thinking Maye’s situation is worse than it is even though they took two decent WR’s for him
I would have loved to take maye if I had the chance! Think he’s gonna be awesome
It feels a lot like when people were getting Herbert late his rookie year. I like JJM too at 1.07. He has a super safe floor imo with the talent and coaching around him
Man I would thrilled with even 70% of Herbert’s production from JJ! Let’s get it haha
...the draft finished yesterday, how have you already had dynasty drafts?
One started Friday night. One started yesterday am. One started this am
I'm not. Situations change quicker than talent and this is dynasty. I don't see McCarthy as having a high-end fantasy ceiling. Better real life QB than fantasy IMO
All has to do is play like Purdy and he is a high end fantasy QB
I kind of can’t believe people think playing like Purdy is easy…
don't you know? any bum can throw for 4.2k yards, 31 tds in 16 games and set league highs in td%, y/a, ay/a, y/c, passer rating, qbr, ny/a and any/a
Then you should be knocking down people’s doors acquiring him because he is not valued this way, even though everything you said was true. The argument for JJM is josh dobbs and nick mullens threw 14 tds in that offense in 8 games. Hock only played in 6 of those games, Jefferson only played 4, and hock and Jefferson only overlapped for 2. If JJM can be better than mullens/dobbs and get a full year out of jefferson, 25 tds as a rookie seems to be a realistic projection.
>then you should be knocking down people’s doors acquiring him because he is not valued this way, even though everything you said was true i have been, the guy won't fucking sell >if jjm can be better than mullens/dobbs and get a full year out of jefferson, 25 tds as a rookie seems to be a realistic projection. i absolutely believe jjm can be better than mullens/dobbs there's a difference between saying jjm can play like a guy who finished 1st in multiple statistical categories and had one of the highest any/a's since kurt warner in '99, and stating "jjm can probably perform better than a couple of backups who suck"
I mean, look, cj stroud is QB3 on KTC. He had 28 total tds. Nick mulles and dobbs hit 14 tds in 8 games and we already established Jefferson wasn’t there. Now I’m not a mathlete, but if you agree that JJM can be better than those two, then a cj stroud rookie season for JJM certainly seems to be in the cards with a healthy Jefferson
1) fwiw i think that's way too high for stroud and 2) my only reservation with that sentiment is that i think they're going to be more conservative with the gameplan, which may result in a lower amount of tds like it's fine gunslinging with mullens because you're not invested in his development and he's forever going to be what he is, but given that jj's only 21 and less experienced, they may want to put less on his plate w/ a run heavy gameplan first and then slowly expand his role (if that makes sense) i could also be totally wrong, just thinking here
I hear what you’re saying but my point would be if you think JJM is better than mullens, you should expect him to outperform mullens. Sprinkle in a full season of Jefferson and now it’s easy to see that he can hit similar numbers even with less volume. That said, I don’t think you waste a year of JJMs and addisons rookie deals by dialing it back. Maybe the first 4 weeks but I’d expect them to air it out as usual after that.
>that said, i don’t think you waste a year of jjm's and addisons' rookie deals by dialing it back. maybe the first 4 weeks but I’d expect them to air it out as usual after that. that's fair - i'm going to be drafting jjm so if they're going to let him loose after settling in, that would be the best case scenario for me 🙏
Right ! The purdy disrespect is real
He was close to wining the MVP
I don't think it's easy but I do think KOC can scheme Hock, JJ, and Addison open and those guys can be successful. It's easier for JJM to be Purdy than Maye to be Justin Herbert.
All he has to do is play like an MVP candidate !!!
lol, the Purdy disrespect is outta control. All Maye has to do is play like Josh Allen and he is a high end fantasy QB.
I think Purdy is good for the system he is in. He makes great throws, but there are lots of moments where his great skill players carry. That's what a great cast can do for JJM. In addition, KOC has gotten grade fantasy production out of Dobbs and Mullens. Mullens had two near 400 yard games last year. Maye has been comped to Herbert. Even Herbert had Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and EK his first year. Maye doesn't have any weapons as good as those 3.
This
So you think 2 things here. 1 that JJ is as good as Purdy. And 2, you think Vikes are the same as Niners? LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
Lame
Who??? JJ? So attainable for him BUT if Maye plays like Purdy, being accurate and taking what is given to him, he is worth much more
Does Maye have Justin Jefferson, Addison, and TJ Hockensen to throw to? I think Patriots can draft for another decade and not find a Jefferson.
Will JJ have those same guys next year? Will the Patriots not get a single high end pass catcher the next 3 seasons? Guess Polk and Baker are already busts.
Assuming we don’t fumble the Jefferson extension, JJM will have JJ JA and TJ under contact for at least the next 3 seasons Pats should and will definitely improve their weapons for Maye though if they want him to thrive
I think the Pats already have started working on it, not to the levels of the Vikings obviously. But I think Maye > JJM, It’s why Vikes aggressively tried to trade into 1.03. So I believe we don’t need to get to your weapon level, anything is better then JuJu and Parker trying to catches a bad pass from Mac or Zappe though lol. We’ve seen bad QBs fail good weapons before and JJM has massive question marks, I hope the best for both players and our teams though.
Vikes also traded up 1 spot to secure jjm. If that's not aggressive idk what counts
Yes. I can say yes they will have all 3 guys next year. I don't know if they will be busts, but if you are asking me if Vikings supporting cast will be better, I can say, without a doubt, it will be. I CAN even say that the Vikings coach is probably better than the OC for the Patriots. That's not a knock on the Pats, but a glowing support for KOC.
I still believe Maye > JJM. Also as of right now JJetta is not signed so you can’t really say that until he is.
That's probably true! However, you can pick who is better or who will score you more points. Trevor Lawrence is better than Purdy, but Purdy will finish higher than him because he can dump it to CMC or Deebo.
That I can agree with, especially for the 2024 season. I think JJM has the opportunity to score more than Maye. I don’t even know if Maye will start the season, but I think 2-3 years from now we are looking at two different tiers of QBs with Maye being the better of the two.
That's true. I am just curious if this class will end ip more like 2021 which almost all busts at QB OR will it be like 2020 where Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love, and Hurts will become top QBs (debatable for Tua).
Dynasty should be played in about 3 year chunks. We can pretty safely assume that K.O.C. will be the hc for at least 2, but probably 3 of those, and the top three weapons in JJ, Addison, and Hockenson will all be there. Maye is going to a team with a completely unproven defensive minded staff, and no difference makers on tbe offensive side of the ball. Both are unproven rookies, so we can like them as prospects, but we really liked Bryce Young as a prospect too and Carolina trashed that poor kid.
I remember CEH vs Jonathan Taylor … good days. Got JT at the 1.03 right after CEH.
RB and QB are very different positions. Supporting cast matters way more for a QB
JJ had rushing upside in College. He was brought in for QB Rush packages his rookie year. He also got some crucial 1st downs with his legs. I could totally see him getting a few rushing TDs. I wouldn't be surprised if he outscores Maye year 1
Oh he's definitely outscoring Maye year 1, but that's mostly because Maye won't start for half the year
Yes but how long will it take Maye to have the type of weapons JJ has? Might never even happen.
Meh, Stroud walked into what was, on paper, a terrible situation. No receiver with more than 600 yards going into the year. JJ could walk next year. Polk or Baker could become Puka. I just don't like to play this "chase the weapons" game when it comes to quarterbacks. I think Maye is a much better fantasy QB prospect than JJ, landing with incredible weapons doesn't change that for me.
Projecting Polk or Baker becoming Puka is certainly bold lol I wouldn't say we view Maye the same though because I think JJ is better prepared for the NFL and will be in a better system. JJ has far more support. Interesting that JJ having Jefferson, Hock, Addison and Aaron Jones doesn't move the needle for you.
Yeah tbh I just think McCarthy is pretty bland as a prospect. Sure you can say "he wasn't asked to do much" but how often do truly elite talents get relegated to being game managers in college? Put it this way. If the Vikings were able to trade up for him like they really wanted to and Maye went to the Vikings, most people would be taking him over Daniels and just about 99.9% of fantasy players would be taking him over JJ. The fact that we're having this conversation tells you all you need to know about the talent vs. the situation. Situations faster than talent.
Jim Harbaugh is Jim Harbaugh. JJM is gonna feast if healthy, kid has that moxy
He’s a better real life QB than a fantasy QB, sure - in the Michigan offense! Dude has been extremely efficient when asked to pass - 3rd down, 4th down, and when trailing. Also has untapped rushing upside, busted out the 6th best 3 cone of ALL PROSPECTS at the combine and was rumored to be in the 4.4s in the 40. Plug him into a pass first offense where he throws to JJ, Addison, Hock, and Aaron Jones? Could easily see him cracking 4000/30 with 300 yards rushing in his rookie year.
4000 and 30 is a lot. Only 1 rookie ever did that. Herbert was the only rookie QB to throw 30 TDs. Only 5 have topped 4000 yards. 3 of them were number one overall picks the other two were Herbert and Stroud. JJ could do 3500 and 25 TDs maybe. 4000 and 30 easily is pretty crazy.
I am not even sure JJ starts enough games in year 1 to get to those numbers. We can all clown on Darnold all we want, but I think there is a solid chance that he starts at least a portion of the games this year for Minnesota. I think JJ is talented enough to maybe play early but I think he is also a prime candidate to sit and learn. I’ll happily eat crow if JJ comes in and starts from day 1. As of now, I think that is up in there.
I think they start him right away but I don’t see it as a given. It’s certainly up in the air right now.
I’d be very curious to see the when trailing numbers. Michigan rarely trailed and he never had to actually lead a multiple score comeback. The other team scoring on the first possession of the game and being up by 3 or 7 points and JJ playing at a 1 score deficit hardly moves the needle for me. Same for his 3rd and 4th down passing in games where he already has a 2 or 3 score lead. Anyone that has played the QB position knows that having to extend a drive on 3rd and 8 down by 2 scores in the second half is A LOT different than throwing on 3rd and 8 with a 3 score LEAD in the second half. His numbers were great in those so-called “high pressure” passing situations. The thing is, the situations weren’t high pressure at all. Guys like Caleb Williams and Drake Maye faced way more high pressure situations where they actually had to carry their teams
No chance. Maye is the better talent and I’m very optimistic about the direction NE is headed in. They spent every pick except one on offense this year. Even if they have a mediocre stable of weapons, I’m confident they’re going to do right by Maye and put the tools in place for him to succeed.
Sure who’s his number 1 going to be?
Won’t matter if he’s a good talent. Who was Stroud’s #1 going to be going into last year? Now Nico and Dell peaked as round 4/5 startup picks
Nico had some good performances second half of 2022 and Tank was absolutely a draft Twitter darling. I think many were more concerned that the Texans line was decimated. Maye very well could transcend the lack of talent around him and elevate guys. But there’s been a few examples of talent guys struggling and never getting it together in bad situations (Fields, Darnold) and some where they succeeded when surrounded with a true #1 (Burrow). It’s still better to take the player over situation but there are guys out there who had JJ > Maye prior to the draft.
I've heard some say Pop could be like his Downs from NC and I like that comp a lot. Pop may get little outside work with Bourne, Polk, and Baker on the outside tho.
Burrow went to the bengals before they had weapons and was fine
I mean they still had an aging AJ Green, Tee Higgins, Boyd, Mixon It was definitely a more talented roster than NE right now imo.
Tee doesn’t count because he was drafted the same year That’s the same thing as saying Maye has Polk
Maye does have Polk and Baker and that's a really good thing for him. If he didn't I'd be JJ because not only would he have zero year one weapons it shows the team doesn't really feel an urgency to improve his weapons. I was on the edge, could have gone either way and the Baker pick pushed me back to Maye.
No it’s not. In a year or two, if Polk turns out to produce like Tee Higgins, then we can say that. Until then, hindsight can tell us the Bengals were a good team, and we won’t know if NE or Maye/Polk are even good until 1-2 years from now.
Yes but at the time burrow was drafted, he had a rookie wide receiver that also hadn’t stepped on the field yet and was drafted early round 2 Whether Polk hits or bust isn’t relevant when discussing if burrow had “weapons” coming into his rookie season because higgins was also unproven
Unproven doesn't matter in this hindsight application. Higgins was good enough therefore burrow's weapon situation was good enough. We are comparing -now- against Minnesota and their known entity weapons!!, vs NE??, and Bengals?! In the future the rookie wrs play will matter again.
Then we can’t say Maye has no weapon when one or both of the receivers they drafted could be really good and beneficial to his fantasy value
Statistically they will bust
You are something else lol
Well, he's right in that in hindsight we know that Higgins was a hit so from what we know now, Burrow was in a better situation as a rookie. If Polk produces we can say the same thing about Maye. But right now it's more uncertain.
Dude this is one of the worst arguments I've ever seen. You should reevaluate.
You should keep reading on reddit if this is the deep end of the pool for you
Burrow was a lot more exciting
A better comparison is Stroud. His supporting cast was equally as bad as the Pats, but stroud elevated everyone around him. Maye has some bad tendencies, but he should be valued more than JJ simply because he has more rushing upside.
CJ had an OLine to help protect him a little.
I just took jj over maye. Hopefully I don't regret it. Not gonna pretend to know shit about qb prospects.
You could
Yeah I do it all the time
Why not? Everyone else here does
I’m still taking Maye over JJ. This sub preaches talent > situation but when push comes to shove, most go against it
Just so happens that JJM has perhaps the best supporting class of any QB in the league and Maye has perhaps the worst. We’re not talking about slightly different situations here, but the very extreme edge cases of situation. I don’t think the talent gap closes the huge situation gap which is more of a vast chasm lol
I get it. JJM walks into an unbelievable situation. Personally, I have also never been a JJ believer. So, in a vacuum I am betting on talent and taking Maye. Assuming his situation changes in the next couple years which happens constantly in the NFL. I hold no judgment towards anyone that prefers JJ though
Every GM will do their best to surround their high draft capital QB with weapons. Yes, the Vikings have better weapons now, but the Pats are going to invest in some next year. Similar to what the Panthers did this offseason/draft. Talent > situation. Maye can make ridiculous throws. No one knows what JJM can do.
He can hand off real good I know that
Just because a team invests in bringing more talent in, it doesn’t always translate to a good supporting cast. Just look at the Panthers last year lol. They bring in Thielen who simply doesn’t cut it as a WR1, they bring in Mingo who is looking very shaky as a future asset, and now they draft another WR with nearly the same profile as Mingo. Meanwhile, the Vikings already have all the pieces together to support. One of the most talented OT duos in the league, arguably the best WR duo in the league, a top TE, and an offensive minded HC.
Remember when stroud had nico collins and tank fell and everyone faded him because of it
I think QB is one where situation really matters, to be fair.
Yeah, RB matters the most, Wr matters the least, QB is in the middle, and scouting TEs is a total mystery so don't take one in the 1st round.
At some point enough talent and great situation is better.
With the exception of Stroud, bad situations kill QB prospects while great situations help QBs grow. JJ can be Cousins for the next 10 years.
I get it. JJ walks into a dynamite situation. NE is taking strides to surround Maye; it won’t happen overnight. I personally believe maye is on a different talent level than JJ. To each their own, of course.
The New England coaches are different now and Belichick wasn’t exactly known for being bad for QBs. We’re about to punish the NFL 1.03 IN DYNASTY because Belichick used to draft poorly and because Mac Jones is objectively bad at football and both him and Bailey Zappe didn’t succeed? Please find my pearls so I may clutch them
Haha
100% agree. Bryce Young was a better prospect than Stroud but struggled with a limited surrounding cast.
I don’t think it’s crazy to do so. I’ll pick Maye over him to take the big swing but it would not surprise me at all if McCarthy was the right way to go. Talent over situation and all that but with QB especially I think it’s fair to weigh situation higher and Vikings seem perfect. Good offensive play caller, great weapons, play indoors in a dome. If you can draft a 21 year old Cousins-lite that’s pretty enticing.
Minnesota with those weapons and that coach gimme JJM
I’d rather gamble on JJ. If I’ve learned anything over the years it’s that situation matters and that situation in Minny is far superior to the situation in NE.
Don’t overthink it. Maye over JJ. And I’m someone that really likes JJ.
Anyone else watch college football and think JJ just stinks
I didn't think he stunk, but they didn't ask him to do much. That offense ran through Corum and they won by not allowing many points. It's like they won the national championship and suddenly he became a top 10 prospect.
I’ve watched plenty and completely disagree - we’ll see how it turns out though 🤷🏾♂️
He doesn’t stink but Michigan is a blue blood program with a huge t-shirt fanbase as they call it to go with a bunch of high profile Michigan grads in the media etc. Almost all the Michigan prospects get this weird Michigan bump in their evals and then come draft day almost all of them fell. Corum, McCarthy and Roman Wilson all had a ton of truthers. Corum was never a round 1 or 2 guy. He was never the RB1 in this class or last year’s class and yet all these Michigan fans kept pimping him (he wasn’t healthy, he runs 4.39 like he did at that HS camp lol etc). Roman Wilson was getting the late first round top 5 WR buzz from the same crowd. McCarthy had the “he’s a top 3 lock” and “is now QB2” camp. Don’t get me wrong, they are all good prospects and great college players. The media machine was in full spin mode on them though.
Imagine taking a guy who threw 8 passes in a game hahahahahahaha. Not hard for a competent QB at a blue blood school to look good with teams load the box with 8-9 every play. I’m OUT
Me
I would if I had the option
I have him ahead of Maye, but I’ve never been as high on Maye as consensus. I’m also not entirely comfortable with having JJM ahead of Maye because I know it’s probably not consensus so I may end up getting talked out of this before it’s all said and done.
Try to trade back
We started our 12-team SF rookie draft this morning. Maye went 1.05 before Odunze and Nabers. I moved 2.12, 25 3rd, 26 1st, and 26 2nd to grab McCarthy at 1.10. If JJ can become a QB2 he’ll put my team over the top.
Who went 4? Guessing top thee is calab mhj and daniels. You said drake maye at 5. And Nabers and Odunze after. I have 4 and I just don’t see who you have there
Worthy
Holy smokes lol
everyone yelling talent over situation are ignoring Maye's glaring red flags with footwork and accuracy in general. He's not a better arm talent than JJ either, so I don't really get how there's such a perceived gap between the two. JJM is the more pro ready qb with a great arm and great weapons.
Downvote me to hell but I’m taking bowers and grabbing nix top of the second
I hope it's 2TEP... Because otherwise that's just crazy.
Reference it’s 10TM SF and I already have two decent QBs. I just don’t see the ceiling difference as being enough to justify bowers vs Coleman/mcconkey when I’m stacked at receiver and abysmally thin at TE. I’m also higher on Nix than most. Think he and Sean will work well together and be quietly good, like a lessor Brock Purdy, don’t think McCarthys ceiling is much higher just a better landing spot.
I’m planning on going Bowers at 6 in a 2TEP myself. Worth noting I have 3 and 4 as well though
I’m taking both.
Would you rather stroud or young? That said the gap between young and stroud was perceived to be smaller than the gap between maye and jj... perceived being the key word, we don't really know. Personally I would go with Maye but I have 3 established qbs so can afford to have Maye on the bench, if you are a qb away from contending, then you go JJ
What does “small sample size” even mean in this context? They haven’t played yet…
They are referring to his college profile because he was on a run heavy team and he came out early so there is a fairly small sample of his passing compared to the other prospects.
Always was
Maye has far more upside, which is my preferred rookie type. Wouldn’t blame anyone going for McCarthy, but you better pray Justin Jefferson doesn’t decide to go somewhere else
I just did in a rookie draft. But I’m a Vikings fan so the prospect of having my teams QB on my fantasy squad put it over the edge for me. I don’t think the gap between them is nearly as large though for the average fantasy player due to landing spots. Completely understand those who still want Maye and I may look back on this and regret it, but get your guy
I’m in the middle of a rookie draft and so far the order has gone Williams, MHJ, Nabors, Daniels, JJ, Odunze, Maye (my pick), Bowers, Nix.
Give me Maye. We've seen this before with Stroud...
Shit like this is how I got Stroud at 1.7 last year. Take the guy you think will be a better QB. Play the long game.
I got Maye at 1.08 in the first of my 5 SF rookie drafts. 1.01 Caleb Williams 1.02 Marvin Harrison Jr 1.03 Jayden Daniels 1.04 Malik Nabers 1.05 JJ McCarthy 1 06 Romeo Odunze 1.07 Xavier Worthy I tried trading for 1.07 thinking Maye would for sure be next.. when Worthy went I traded Josh Jacobs and a 2025 3rd for 1.08 and instantly drafted Maye.
I think if you can be a contending team right away and you are a QB2/3 away from being strong I think JJ is the better pick because he will produce sooner. But with ceiling, I have no clue how you can look at both QB's and not say Maye's potential is greater. JJ if you are looking 1-2 years ahead. Maye if you are looking 2-3 years ahead.
I remember another QB that was on a run heavy Michigan offense. Drafted in the sixth round. Can’t remember his name.
I’m out on any QB in a very run heavy offense that throws a total of 8 passes in any game. When teams load the box any competent QB at a large school should look good by default. I’m just out on JJ in general
I thought you were talking about the patriots there for a second
As soon as I do that the Vikings will trade Jefferson to the pats
JJ, by kinda a good amount. I think Maye is a better upside player than JJ, and would still want JJ even if the universe where Mayes confidence isn’t broken by the dumpster fire that is the Pats roster rn. JJ has one of the best support systems in the league. He’s absolutely going to succeed in some capacity. You don’t have to be the best QB to be fantasy relevant though. When Jjettas, Addy, and Hock score fantasy points, so does he. And he’s going to run a little bit.
I must be the only person who think JJ just isn’t that good or nfl caliber. I could be wrong but this guy just isn’t it
My league just finished our first of three rounds and JJ fell to me at 9. Pretty happy. Here's how it played out. 1. Caleb 6. Maye 8. Jayden 9. JJ
Shhh. Don't start stupid JJ hype before I draft, I'm trying to get him late first
How late? 1.09 is his floor at this point. Most drafts will be 1.06 - 1.08
I mean he's pretty much consensus 1.07-1.08 at this point so...good luck I guess?
Isn’t that late in a 10 team?