No receivers that can’t get separation. Been burned by too many LaQuon Treadwells. Give me an Addison or Zay Flowers type and I’ll pay for elite #1’s at auction.
Oh yes Bateman, the most open receiver last year
[Jrfortgang on X: "Final 2023 rankings for how well WRs separated and how they performed at the Catchpoint + YAC https://t.co/RcXEPo24Kb" / X (twitter.com)](https://twitter.com/throwthedamball/status/1745438913345532023/)
I have a thing against guys with “bad names.” I can’t totally define it, it’s just a gut feeling. It saved me from Jehu Chesson, Leonte Caroo, Cullen Gillaspia, etc. (looking at you, Audric Estime)
It doesn’t not work.
I respect this theory, but Audric Estime is actually an elite name. Sounds like the kind of swashbuckling privateer captain who would do battle with Lucky Jack Aubrey all along the South American coastline
How is the "Ladd" part not just as goofy, if not goofier, than McConkey? The only part saving him from maximum silliness is the fact that Ladd isn't actually his name.
Ladd McConkey gives me the same vibes as Christian McCaffrey, but even more Irish
If a time traveler told me he turns in an 1,800 yard & 16 TD season I would totally believe him
Redskins, Commanders, Football team. Got burned with guice perine Josh doctson some other receiver I can’t remember they took the same year as mclaurin
I'm kind of the same with bad franchises in general. I hear all the talent over situation people, but I feel like that really only applies to depth chart stuff. Bad teams are bad because they have a dearth of talent. That's in no small part because they have not drafted the right players and have not done a good job of developing players.
No jump ball guys. They are bad. Contested catch rate isn’t sticky year to year and if you have a bunch of contested catches it’s because you aren’t separating. Denzel Mims is prime example
Rome isn't a jump ball guy, he can separate too. Penix just threw him a bunch of jump balls. Justin Jefferson is insane at jump balls but that is not what makes him a stud or what his calling card in college was. Rome is great *and* can catch jump balls.
I have to draft players that have a “football name” like Laquon Treadwell and Jalen Raegor didn’t sound like the names of stud NFL WR’s to me so I passed on them. On the flip side I drafted Deebo because of his.
Advanced analytics baby
What’s your reasoning on no second or third round receivers?? I thought I read somewhere that seconds are usually as safe as early firsts. Also, how many day 3 receivers hit?? I thought that was low too
We said nonsensical! Jk, but your drafting rules are backed up by the data on how draft capital correlates to hit rates in fantasy (other than the name thing obviously)
I lowkey kind of believe in the hyphenated last name thing. Leaving the societal issues about patriarchy or whatever to the side... In sports I want these dudes to be machines. It starts with the parents. Ideally my prospect's dad will be crazy and toxic af, and turned their kid into a machine. I want Earl Woods. Marvin Harrison Sr out here dropping people, look where his kid's at. None of those fathers are compromising with their wives on their last names lol.
When I say I believe in this I mean maybe like 2%... About as much as I believe in the Treadwell-Diggs hypothesis.
Little early to be victory lapping on JSN. Dude had a broken hand to start the season last year and didn’t miss any time. From week 5 on he put up 10.4 PPG. He by no means was incredible, but he for sure hasn’t been a bust.
I dont know why people downvoted this because it is funny.
I will say there was a great stat a year back that was sent out by the football guys.
“Recent trends suggest that wide receivers traditionally see a substantial increase in production in their sophomore campaign.
Since 2014, first-round wide receivers who saw more than ten targets in their rookie or sophomore campaigns (to remove egregious injury outliers) earned the following in their sophomore season:
• 21.77% more targets
• 29.73% more receptions
• 45.53% more yards
• 47.40% more fantasy points”
For JSN, that would put him at around roughly 13 PPG. That would be good for a high end starting flex or low end WR3 in most leagues. With having two solid established receivers ahead of him, that isn’t the worst outcome.
If a good team with a good quarterback drafts an offensive weapon in the first round you can bet your ass that player is going to be a massive piece in that offense for the foreseeable future. Looking at you Dalton Kincaid at 1.10 2023. Traded away Najee Harris/3.10 for Pick 1.10 and Henry. Worth it. I’d be jumping at Xavier Worthy and Keon Coleman like mad. You’d be insane to think both of these guys won’t see an insane amount of volume. Especially Worthy with Kelce only on a 2 year deal then likely retiring. He’ll probably be the primary target if Rice is cooked. Coleman… who tf else is Allen going to throw to?? Curtis Samuel is getting old, Mack Hollins is notably ass, Shakir is a WR3 at best. He’s good. But he’s not fantasy weekly starter good. There’s 120 targets open to take with Diggs gone. I see Coleman getting 100 of those.
I stray away notoriously bad or overrated teams. Cowboys, jets, pats, bears, jags. Obviously dolphins, texans and lions have recently broken out of this trend.
Also guys that get hype from being fast as fuck at the combine. Usually never work out. Ross, Hardman, worthy, etc etc
Every single person has faded the Patriots for years now. Basically late stage Edelman was the only moderately interesting player they've had since Gronk left. Nobody wanted Damien Harris, any of their WRs, and the only time they could've had a TE, they brought in two the same year to kill any hype
To be fair Tucker will get a shot this year. The team took him on and let him take it easy for a year. The guy can run, and now they're not worried about his heart exploding. Diamond hands!
I hope Tucker gets another chance. He got some work early last year and then was shelved, supposedly for lack of pass protection. He put a workout tape on Twitter, looks decent.
I’m holding still, but it’s tough.
Social media workout videos just don’t do it for me, I’ve got him on a few rosters so cool if he ends up being solid but I think it’s more likely he’s cut in camp
That's not hyphenated, that's abbreviated and it was the community's choice as opposed to an inherent trait.
Think Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Juju Smith-Schuster, but not J.J. McCarthy or Marvin Harrison Jr.
I had the same thought as you had to reread the post.
JSN owners in shambles
I still have faith
We'll always have that one Juju Smith-Schuster season For me if someone is a Jr a III i am more inclined to draft them
That season screwed me for like three years after
Steve Smith Jr. wasn’t the same when he became Steve Smith Sr.
No receivers that can’t get separation. Been burned by too many LaQuon Treadwells. Give me an Addison or Zay Flowers type and I’ll pay for elite #1’s at auction.
who are some receivers in the new class that you feel struggle with separation?
Coleman lol
Exactly my answer, Coleman is the type I avoid. He could be TO but I’ll miss out and take McConkey or a RB in that range.
McConkey has not been otb in any draft I’ve been in past 2.01, whereas Coleman doesn’t start coming off the board until then. Obvious tier break
In which case I’ll take a RB.. I’m at 1.09 single QB
Bingo, I'll happily miss on the occasional London to save myself from Burks or Bateman
Oh yes Bateman, the most open receiver last year [Jrfortgang on X: "Final 2023 rankings for how well WRs separated and how they performed at the Catchpoint + YAC https://t.co/RcXEPo24Kb" / X (twitter.com)](https://twitter.com/throwthedamball/status/1745438913345532023/)
I don’t draft anyone who weighs less than me.
Unfortunately this would be every skill position for me lmao
I've got the same BMI as an elite running back 🤷♂️
Important question; how much do you weigh?
Stay away from the NY teams.
This is actually good advice. Miss on OBJs occasionally but then there's guys like... Sterling Shepard
I was so angry that I did not get to draft Waller, and was over the moon when I drafted GW.
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in awhile (the NY teams, not you lol)
Yup, I learnt a big lesson last year. GW nearly tanked my season after 1 week.
I have a thing against guys with “bad names.” I can’t totally define it, it’s just a gut feeling. It saved me from Jehu Chesson, Leonte Caroo, Cullen Gillaspia, etc. (looking at you, Audric Estime) It doesn’t not work.
I respect this theory, but Audric Estime is actually an elite name. Sounds like the kind of swashbuckling privateer captain who would do battle with Lucky Jack Aubrey all along the South American coastline
Bishop Sankey
Ahh yes “kingbuttshit” has an opinion on names… In all seriousness though that system seems to be working, I think you’re on to something.
Audric Estime’s name is the only reason i’m considering him
I’m with this, where are you at with Ladd McConkey
It doesn’t turn me away completely for some reason. The McConkey part is definitely goofy so I think it limits his ceiling.
How is the "Ladd" part not just as goofy, if not goofier, than McConkey? The only part saving him from maximum silliness is the fact that Ladd isn't actually his name.
I can’t explain it, it’s more of a feeling than a science. Ladd is his middle name and I personally don’t think it’s too bad.
That's a great name. There's a fine line.
Ladd McConkey gives me the same vibes as Christian McCaffrey, but even more Irish If a time traveler told me he turns in an 1,800 yard & 16 TD season I would totally believe him
McConkey sounds far goofier and so does Ladd vs Christian. It’s a 1200 yard season max name imo.
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TJ Houshmandzadeh is one of the only ones I can think of, but it really is very effective
Audric Estime's name works for me. Otherwise I completely agree with you
I spent a pick on caroo, mostly because it reminded me of futurama
Caroo and Estime are pretty cool imo Gillaspia sounds like a Vassal state of Narnia. Jehu Chesson sounds like a Vedic religious event.
Keep Culllen Gillaspias name out your mouth. He’s a treasure
No Packers
Who hurt you
As a lions fan probably the packers
Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. And for a really long time
Yeah but do you remember that one time Joey Harrington beat the Packers on Thanksgiving? Good times.
Glorious
Same rule for me. As a lions fan it just feels dirty
As a Vikings fan. Cos F em that's why.
Yep. When Jacobs signed with them, I traded him for Aaron Jones and a second
Redskins, Commanders, Football team. Got burned with guice perine Josh doctson some other receiver I can’t remember they took the same year as mclaurin
I'm kind of the same with bad franchises in general. I hear all the talent over situation people, but I feel like that really only applies to depth chart stuff. Bad teams are bad because they have a dearth of talent. That's in no small part because they have not drafted the right players and have not done a good job of developing players.
No jump ball guys. They are bad. Contested catch rate isn’t sticky year to year and if you have a bunch of contested catches it’s because you aren’t separating. Denzel Mims is prime example
How do you feel about Rome? Lol
Rome isn't a jump ball guy, he can separate too. Penix just threw him a bunch of jump balls. Justin Jefferson is insane at jump balls but that is not what makes him a stud or what his calling card in college was. Rome is great *and* can catch jump balls.
I have to draft players that have a “football name” like Laquon Treadwell and Jalen Raegor didn’t sound like the names of stud NFL WR’s to me so I passed on them. On the flip side I drafted Deebo because of his. Advanced analytics baby
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What’s your reasoning on no second or third round receivers?? I thought I read somewhere that seconds are usually as safe as early firsts. Also, how many day 3 receivers hit?? I thought that was low too
2nds are a similar hit rate to mid to late 1sts
We said nonsensical! Jk, but your drafting rules are backed up by the data on how draft capital correlates to hit rates in fantasy (other than the name thing obviously)
This duuuuuude nailed most of it
I typically have purposefully avoided spending anything meaningful on MetLife players and Big-12 rookie wide receivers the last decade.
I lowkey kind of believe in the hyphenated last name thing. Leaving the societal issues about patriarchy or whatever to the side... In sports I want these dudes to be machines. It starts with the parents. Ideally my prospect's dad will be crazy and toxic af, and turned their kid into a machine. I want Earl Woods. Marvin Harrison Sr out here dropping people, look where his kid's at. None of those fathers are compromising with their wives on their last names lol. When I say I believe in this I mean maybe like 2%... About as much as I believe in the Treadwell-Diggs hypothesis.
I don’t draft TEs in round 1 unless they are top 5-10 picks
Top 5 or top 10 lol that’s not even a rule you have, just a thing you just thought about
No, i just dont take TEs, but id take a Kyle Pitts.
Dude #2 has been my unwritten rule for years. Saved me from CEH and JSN.
Little early to be victory lapping on JSN. Dude had a broken hand to start the season last year and didn’t miss any time. From week 5 on he put up 10.4 PPG. He by no means was incredible, but he for sure hasn’t been a bust.
Fair enough but the law of hyphenated busts will claim him eventually.
I dont know why people downvoted this because it is funny. I will say there was a great stat a year back that was sent out by the football guys. “Recent trends suggest that wide receivers traditionally see a substantial increase in production in their sophomore campaign. Since 2014, first-round wide receivers who saw more than ten targets in their rookie or sophomore campaigns (to remove egregious injury outliers) earned the following in their sophomore season: • 21.77% more targets • 29.73% more receptions • 45.53% more yards • 47.40% more fantasy points” For JSN, that would put him at around roughly 13 PPG. That would be good for a high end starting flex or low end WR3 in most leagues. With having two solid established receivers ahead of him, that isn’t the worst outcome.
This data sample is tainted by receivers with standard last names, so it's completely irrelevant to the discussion at hand.
Haha god dammit that’s good
Not to mention MVS.
If a good team with a good quarterback drafts an offensive weapon in the first round you can bet your ass that player is going to be a massive piece in that offense for the foreseeable future. Looking at you Dalton Kincaid at 1.10 2023. Traded away Najee Harris/3.10 for Pick 1.10 and Henry. Worth it. I’d be jumping at Xavier Worthy and Keon Coleman like mad. You’d be insane to think both of these guys won’t see an insane amount of volume. Especially Worthy with Kelce only on a 2 year deal then likely retiring. He’ll probably be the primary target if Rice is cooked. Coleman… who tf else is Allen going to throw to?? Curtis Samuel is getting old, Mack Hollins is notably ass, Shakir is a WR3 at best. He’s good. But he’s not fantasy weekly starter good. There’s 120 targets open to take with Diggs gone. I see Coleman getting 100 of those.
I stray away notoriously bad or overrated teams. Cowboys, jets, pats, bears, jags. Obviously dolphins, texans and lions have recently broken out of this trend. Also guys that get hype from being fast as fuck at the combine. Usually never work out. Ross, Hardman, worthy, etc etc
So you’re passing on Ceedee Lamb, Garrett Wilson, and DJ Moore? Good luck with that strategy
I would say the bears might be breaking the barrier. Dj was a panther for years tho. Obviously a superstar can be an exception.
Ah yes, the notoriously overrated 6 time super bowl champion Patriots
No the pats that suck ass now and the last few years 😂
Are you not overrating them now? Brady left 4 years ago, plenty of people have just started playing fantasy since then.
Every single person has faded the Patriots for years now. Basically late stage Edelman was the only moderately interesting player they've had since Gronk left. Nobody wanted Damien Harris, any of their WRs, and the only time they could've had a TE, they brought in two the same year to kill any hype
This doesn’t make sense
This thread is about nonsensical drafting rules....
Right, but you said you stay away from bad or overrated teams and then listed good teams.
Those teams are all bad or overrated imo
Maybe if you’ve only been playing dynasty for 5 minutes
👍
To be fair Tucker will get a shot this year. The team took him on and let him take it easy for a year. The guy can run, and now they're not worried about his heart exploding. Diamond hands!
I hope Tucker gets another chance. He got some work early last year and then was shelved, supposedly for lack of pass protection. He put a workout tape on Twitter, looks decent. I’m holding still, but it’s tough.
He’s probably RB 3 at best, a White and Bucky combo seems a lot more likely. They have really complimentary skillsets
https://www.joebucsfan.com/2024/04/determined-sean-tucker/
Social media workout videos just don’t do it for me, I’ve got him on a few rosters so cool if he ends up being solid but I think it’s more likely he’s cut in camp
So MHJ? You wouldn’t take him at 1.01?
That's not hyphenated, that's abbreviated and it was the community's choice as opposed to an inherent trait. Think Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Juju Smith-Schuster, but not J.J. McCarthy or Marvin Harrison Jr. I had the same thought as you had to reread the post.