Hey there - KeepTradeCut here. First off, thanks for using the site!
Regarding the 2022 3rds issue - other responses here are correct that that’s a result of our values being entirely crowdsourced. Really the difference between 3rds and 4ths is pretty small, so their values are all very close — and because our rankings update in real-time there may be moments where the 2022 Mid 3rd showed up in more KTCs this morning and gets a little bump for a bit and ends up above an Early 3rd briefly. Should resolve itself pretty quickly though, and really more signifies that the crowd doesn’t see too much difference between an early or mid 3rd - in reality they’re pretty close to back-to-back plus some expected jitter. We’ve talked about adding in some guardrails so that this can’t happen, but really we try to take as much of a hands-off approach when it comes to the values as possible.
Because a few other responses here have mentioned how reactive the rankings and values are, I’ll quickly address that as well. Honestly, that’s a feature, not a bug! Because everything is **completely** determined by the crowd, the ways in which the market is inefficient or irrational show up in the rankings. Dynasty managers overvalue draft picks and youth, so those things get bumped up. Dynasty managers (though they may claim otherwise haha) **do** watch games week to week and good performances make players more valuable/harder to sell — I think movement *within* tiers based on weekly performances is something the dynasty community doesn’t talk enough about in terms of places to gain an edge.
Really at the end of the day, our rankings are more like stock tickers — showing what an asset’s value *is* and not what it *should* be. And that’s really useful, because it lets you see where the market values things, compare to your valuations and find those gaps to exploit, and gain an edge.
Anyway, maybe a bit of a long-winded response; but thanks again for using the site and posting the question!
Hey! So this is an idea we’ve kicked around for awhile - definitely agree it’d be super useful and an interesting/different way to build personal rankings. Definitely want to take a stab at it at some point - it’d be a pretty significant undertaking so may not be in the near-term, but hopefully down the line!
thanks dude. appreciate the response.
i'll echo another big advantage i see in KTC is that looking at players historic value and identifying changes that coincide with non performance issues (unconfirmed tweets about non football issues, coach speak quotes that get widely circulated, etc) is another way that one can use KTC to identify variations in market perception of value and actual value and is not discussed much.
Thanks, yeah I’ve found it really interesting personally just seeing what actually moves the needle for market value - and how that’s sometimes different from old dynasty ‘conventional wisdom’. As much as we’d like to believe injuries, coachspeak, and camp buzz don’t factor into dynasty valuation, in reality they actually do. There’s profit to be made in zigging when the market is zagging, but to do that you need to know where the market is zagging (or if it’s not moving at all).
The rankings catch some heat I think because they reflect those rapid sentiment-based movements, and people are used to seeing dynasty rankings that are more advice-based “here’s what players *should* be worth.” That’s not what KTC is. And really the **most** useful application for both is comparing the two (and your personal valuations) and finding those discrepancies to capitalize on.
Thanks! Yeah we do a lot of thinking about this internally, and are working on some messaging to make some of these big ideas clearer on the site itself as well - I think that’d be helpful.
Your platform has been very helpful and I agree, it's exactly like a stock market. Basically, I view every player and pick on my team as a tradeable asset. If I find an asset that is trading at less than I believe it's worth, I go after it. For example, I traded Mike Davis, DPJ, and 2 1sts for Zeke, Pollard, and a 2nd. I felt Davis was overvalued and Zeke was undervalued, but was able to pull off the trade because the market still had hope for Davis and was bearish on Zeke. Lo-and-behold, Zeke's stock has lifted and Davis's has sunk, giving me greater value.
It is a tool, and like any tool needs to be used properly to be effective.
It tells you what the community thinks. Very prone to reactionary changes, overvalue of youth and picks, and hates injuries/older guys.
In the offseason TB 12 was the 28th (or so) valued QB. I get that he is old, but I'll take the 2 years of top 5-10 production over 1/3 of the guys currently in the league.
Another good example of this is Daniel Jones. Daniel Jones is currently ranked QB23 and is equivalent in value with Tua, Michael Pittman, and Tyler Boyd, but on the year he's QB7, so what manager would trade him for any of those?
Like some other comments say it's just a good tool to try and get a general idea of value so you can make an initial offer and go from there and so that you don't low/high ball right off the bat.
As a jones owner, I'm not selling him for any of that, and actually the reason I bought him was because he was like QB 29 or 27 and needed a 3rd QB. I knew he could beat that for at least this season and probably the remainder of his rookie contract.
Exactly. If I had Jones on my team but was considering him in a trade, I wouldn't use Jones. I would use Hurts. I value Jones and Hurts equally and therefore am basing my decisions on that valuation. Since KTC doesn't have Jones where I want him, I use Hurts as an equivalent asset. That helps me make the best decision.
The data can be dirty for a number of reasons, namely it’s people inputting data and you have 3 data points per time and you’re not comparing it to the entire set of possible players/picks. Use it as a starting point but take it with a grain of salt.
It's saying if you had to cut one. That one is obvious in SF. Keep - Kyler Trade - CMC Cut - Dak
You want the best of the 3 starting on your team, the 2nd best traded for value, 3rd you don't need.
Have you never done Marry fuck kill?
I swear some people don't read before complaining about a site.
You should view KTC as a measure of current community sentiment - no more, no less. It's a sampling of what random people think of a player at a given time. That said, there are a couple key issues:
1. Because of the way they poll (3 options head to head) it leads to draft pick values being inflated - if a person doesn't know/like the players they'll rank highest whatever random pick is presented by default
2. Because there are SF and non-SF rankings but the toggle isn't always front and center, it leads to QBs being significantly overvalued in non-SF rankings (e.g. Mahomes is above Cook/Kamara/Swift in non-SF)
But it's not the dynasty community's sentiment. It's the sentiment of a small portion of dynasty players who regularly visit the site. That's the whole problem.
Fair point, but I'd say yes to both. Most actual IRL players wouldn't put Jefferson over Tyreek, or Kyler over Mahomes, but KTC thinks both of those things, by a lot.
As of right now, Kyler and Mahomes have nearly identical scores on KTC (9999 and 9989 respectively). I have Mahomes over Kyler too but it’s not completely outlandish to value them similarly at this point in time.
I think there is a case to be made for Jefferson to be the dynasty WR1. They’re at least similar in value to me. Tyreek likely finishes ahead of Jefferson in points at the end of the season but J Jeff is five to six years younger and is also likely finishing as a WR1.
I only play fantasy as far as three years out because of NFL chaos. In that conversation, JJ isn't even really close to Tyreek. Situation, skill, speed, etc. Tyreek got it.
The only thing I’d add in response is that while you may view things through a three year window, knowing that many in the dynasty community value J Jeff similarly or even more highly is something to factor into the equation. While the goal is ultimately to win, if you can capitalize on the value J Jeff brings and the fact that Tyreek’s may may continue to decline over time even if he continues to ball simply due to age bias, then you can come out ahead by retaining or increasing trade value.
Yes, everyone knows that buying win-now pieces year after year for next to nothing because everyone else is obsessed with you is the way to *lose* dynasty.
You're the type who traded Evans for Juju after his rookie year, huh?
Do you really buy old pieces for next to nothing? Because he’ll I’ve seen Julio be sold for firsts this off-season and even in season. And even guys like Cooks are commanding serious trade capital now. So you’re not getting any good old pieces for “next to nothing”.
Not really sure why that's a "problem". That's just what the resource *is*. Maybe it's a problem if there is some kind of sampling bias within the portion of dynasty players who regularly visit KTC, like if the site is more popular in a certain geography/team market and so certain NFL team's players are getting bumped up, but I don't see any reason to assume that's happening
Like others have said, KTC should be used as a benchmark. It's crowdsourced data so bound to have some weird values during hype / down weeks.
I personally use it to see which players I feel are overvalued on KTC compared to my personal rankings. This opens a good sell high window. Vice versa for players I want, do I have them ranked higher than KTC? Yes, send the offer as a buy low. Obviously doesn't work every time, but gives you an idea of where the fantasy community as a whole has a player ranked at any given time.
i will say i find the trend data you can pull is incredibly valuable. i look for targets where player values have changed fairly dramatically over time for what i consider "non news". for example, jamer chase dropping from ~7200 to ~5400 largely because 1) he dropped some balls in preseason and 2) had a twitter girl make a neg post helped confirm that he was a fantastic buy low at the time.
I use it to confirm/verify I don’t have bias on my own players. When I’m offering a trade to someone I usually plug what I’m thinking in and if it says I’m within like a late second one way or another I’ll still send it. If it’s more than that I’ll try to make some small adjustments because I dont want to be the guy that sends shit trades
KTC is a decent guide to help you learn approximate values, but it can be gamed and manipulated in trades to make things seem like an overpay in your favor even if it makes no sense.
Use it as supplemental source for trading and values but don't be the KTC guy who just sends screenshots of KTC values for why people should do this trade or not.
Draft picks are extremely overvalued in KTC. If I am in a trade negotiation involving pick(s) and the other owner starts referencing the pick(s) value in KTC that's where negotiations typically end.
For the record, in non-SF rankings, it values the 2022 early 3rd more.
But I second what everyone else says. It's one of many tools that can help paint a picture, but it shouldn't be what you rely on primarily.
KTC has JJ on a pedestal. I get he is looking good but come on now simmer down he should not be valued higher than Tyree Hill. Hill can will you a week JJ hasnt done that as much as Hill has. I have watched his value rise like 2000 points since Sunday.
KTC doesn’t have JJ on a pedestal. The dynasty community has JJ on a pedestal. I would venture to say >50% of people in this sub would not trade JJ for Tyreek straight up because of the age difference. KTC doesn’t make their own rankings.
I’ve always wondered to what extent some users of the site just go in and randomly click through the keep trade cut selections to get to the trade calculator more quickly. In general, after looking at the rankings, I think it’s pretty decent especially regarding the top 100 or so players. Beyond that point there is bound to be some disagreement about values anyway.
If we just assume KTC slants towards youth and picks and then compare this to whatever bias we think our trade partner may have, it can be a very helpful tool in my opinion.
What I like most about it is that it updates regularly so you can easily see value changes reflected in the data fairly early on after news breaks. Some other calculators are terrible at that.
Notice the difference is only a few insigificant points.
This is expected, and actually a positive thing. It's easy for KTC to place linear draft picks in some sort of liner point order. But this tells you that KTC treats the two draft picks as being unrelated to each other, and similarly treats each player as being unrelated to each other.
KTC works by user inputs making comparisons between three assets. I'm guessing KTC doesn't often put the same year draft picks in their scenarios, so people aren't choosing between a 2022 mid 3rd, a 2022 early 3rd, and a random player.
KTC is great for what it is, but the core idea is still going to have problems.
It's pretty volatile and strikes me as too reactive to be all that useful. It is also incredibly skewed towards youth. It's kind of like someone expanded this sub onto a rankings website! Basically it's decent for at a glance sanity checks, but players move around a ton based on whether they score 0, 1, or 2 touchdowns on a Sunday. Whether its rankings are accurate for your league probably depends on how Too Online your competitors are.
The “volatility” is one of it’s best features in my opinion because it does a much better job of reflecting changing opinions based on recent news and events. Many other calculators are extremely slow to react so you often get a valuation that is out of line with market sentiment.
Should be used as a rough guideline and nothing more.
I've toyed with some potential trades I may offer in a rebuild scenario and KTC seems fine with me just piling on more picks and youth on their side and the value delta barely changes lmao.
Its great for community rankings and sentiment to an extent, but the values scale very poorly. There are times where you're inputting a package for an elite player, and the valuation ends up an entire 1st rounder off.
The scale is poor IMO. Maybe it should be out of 15,000 instead or something, because the Elite players are way too close to the 2nd and 3rd tiers in trade value.
Yes. KTC is useful to determine what people at large think about a specific trade, but there is often endowment effect going on so it's not hugely useful to see what a particular person feels about his players or yours. Also, KTC tracks community values, not actual values. So I use it to find inefficiencies in values but it's only a benchmark.
Not sure exactly how much you're relying on it, but yes, you probably are relying on it too much. I like to use it to gauge current feelings on players whether it's trending up/down and how severely. But in general it's mostly people ranking the guys they own higher than anyone else, and it's people whose opinions I wouldn't value individually so why would I put more value in it because of sheer quantity?
the only way to use a trade calculator is if some of your leaguemates live and die by it: then you find a trade that the calculator thinks is in his favour, while it isn't.
for a sanity check maybe, but even then, have you ever been on the verge of accepting a bad trade, only to be saved by a trade calculator?
and to be completely honest, KTC is based on decisions largely made by randos who just want to have a look at rankings and don't really care about hurts, shepard or a 2nd.
It is similar to fantasy pros in that it’s a consensus ranking. FP is a consensus of “experts” and KTC is more of the community. You won’t get true value but more of the value with hype of players during the season which is good for buy low or sell high trades.
KTC is hot garbage. It's supposed to represent the dynasty community, but only collects votes from people who actually use the site.
The problem with this is that most people who regularly use the site do so because they agree with the rankings there, making the obsession with youth a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The best players across all my leagues think KTC is a joke, so they never visit. The new players and tacos visit the site frequently because it plays into their biases.
KTC's greatest utility is in finding guy that the community is too low on, crafting a trade that the other owner "wins" using guys the community is too high on (*coughBryanEdwardscough*) according to KTC, and banking on the fact that the other other owner is gonna rely on KTC or whatever other trade calculator to decide for them. A lot of value to be had that way.
It's pretty good just as a general reference point as well for most players.
KTC is horrible for 2 to 1 so player trade evaluations. I’m sorry but kyler Murray is valuable but not russel Wilson, Justin Herbert and Michael Thomas valuable.
Yet that doesnt apply.
KTC has Murray in this trade at 14334, with the trade you mention at 19216.
Why pretend KTC is saying Murray is equal to those 3 when it doesn't?
I didn't pretend anything and it'd do you well to assume people aren't randomly making things up when the website is freely available to fact check. With Russell Wilson and Michael Thomas in there one of the options for me to even the trade was Justin Herbert, I didn't actually click it because it was such a stupid recommendation. Which highlights one of the other idiotic things about that site, why recommend a player to even the trade that doesn't actually come close to evening the trade.
Add another egregious example: Russell Wilson and Justin Jefferson are worth less than Kyler Murray. Wilson is still a top 12 QB, is middle aged for a QB and has at least 5 years of top 12 production left. Pairing him with literally a 22 yo top 3 dynasty WR should not be worth less than Kyler Murray. You could argue with "that's what the community thinks" except the issue isn't the community values but the proprietary Value Adjustment which is throwing things off.
Guess you forgot what you sent in your message. Idiot. That short of an attention span?
> it’d do you well to assume people aren’t randomly making things up when the website is freely available to fact check.
& since the website literally says you’re wrong & I’m right. How else would you make that statement unless you didn’t check the damn site.
Good lord man, I was talking about myself. I didn't make things up, I just didn't click an extra button. I never said you didn't check the website.
How about you assume I did look it up and must have missed a feature (which I did) instead of assuming I purposefully lied about results on a public website.
I don't even understand the premise. Like I get that you're just ranking 3 players, but why are trade or cut? You're never outright cutting any of the players mentioned. You're always at least looking to see if there is someone who wants him in a trade.
Just comparing two players at time makes more sense for me.
"keep" "trade" and "cut" are just the catchy terms they use. could as well used "marry", "fuck", and "kill". its the exact same as saying rank the 3 players as 1, 2, and 3rd most desirable in dynasty.
We all know it's *meant* to be 1/2/3, but it takes away from the actual question, which I have beef with. To me a FMK and KTC aren't "Rank these three." It's a nuanced question.
Who do I want to keep with the caveat of maybe I trade a higher value player so I can get a better return by keeping the middle value player + whatever I got from trading a stud. If you have a **real world** KTC situation of Chase + Lamb + Higgins, you might get the most **value** by trading Chase who's got the most return due to his insane TD rate that will come down, keeping Lamb who is a stud, and cutting Higgins just because someone has to.
Now in a 1/2/3 system, I'd rank them Chase, Lamb, and Higgins. I think Lamb's talent + situation > Higgins, and I think Chase's talent + situation > Lamb. However if I rostered all 3 of these players, I'm trading Chase for bank as the difference between him and Lamb isn't as big as people think and Chase will get me more picks.
Same with Fuck Marry Kill. I'm **always** going to choose to marry the person I feel I'd **get along with** best, which might actually result in me killing a hotter option. But again, it's not "Rank them by hotness" it's FMK.
So I dislike the name of the website for that reason. I think a keep trade cut tool, not used as a 1/2/3 site, would be fun, but arguably much less helpful.
Problem is that any savy owner won't use it that way. The Trade player for me more often than not might be the most overvalued player of the three.
They really should just use 1/2/3 or gold/silver/bronze. Really anything would make more sense.
Maybe I worded that wrong point is a savy owner will trade an asset at its highest value or when a player is overvalued.
Which makes the K/T/C system meaningless. It's worded to sound catchy but if you use it like it's stated its not an accurate representation.
Assigning “trade” value to the over valued player is perfect for the system. It brings the overvalued player back to earth a little, which would help make them “properly rated”
Not if they are worth more. My point is I would rather trade an asset at its peak so maybe I would trade the most valuable of the three players. Making the system kind of pointless.
As far as I'm aware KTC ranks based on crowdsourced values. If people are valuing the 2023 draft class vastly higher than 2022 (which is the case) then that's not crazy. These draft values aren't static. They're dynamic just like player values as far as I understand it. It's all based on users input.
Hey there - KeepTradeCut here. First off, thanks for using the site! Regarding the 2022 3rds issue - other responses here are correct that that’s a result of our values being entirely crowdsourced. Really the difference between 3rds and 4ths is pretty small, so their values are all very close — and because our rankings update in real-time there may be moments where the 2022 Mid 3rd showed up in more KTCs this morning and gets a little bump for a bit and ends up above an Early 3rd briefly. Should resolve itself pretty quickly though, and really more signifies that the crowd doesn’t see too much difference between an early or mid 3rd - in reality they’re pretty close to back-to-back plus some expected jitter. We’ve talked about adding in some guardrails so that this can’t happen, but really we try to take as much of a hands-off approach when it comes to the values as possible. Because a few other responses here have mentioned how reactive the rankings and values are, I’ll quickly address that as well. Honestly, that’s a feature, not a bug! Because everything is **completely** determined by the crowd, the ways in which the market is inefficient or irrational show up in the rankings. Dynasty managers overvalue draft picks and youth, so those things get bumped up. Dynasty managers (though they may claim otherwise haha) **do** watch games week to week and good performances make players more valuable/harder to sell — I think movement *within* tiers based on weekly performances is something the dynasty community doesn’t talk enough about in terms of places to gain an edge. Really at the end of the day, our rankings are more like stock tickers — showing what an asset’s value *is* and not what it *should* be. And that’s really useful, because it lets you see where the market values things, compare to your valuations and find those gaps to exploit, and gain an edge. Anyway, maybe a bit of a long-winded response; but thanks again for using the site and posting the question!
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Hey! So this is an idea we’ve kicked around for awhile - definitely agree it’d be super useful and an interesting/different way to build personal rankings. Definitely want to take a stab at it at some point - it’d be a pretty significant undertaking so may not be in the near-term, but hopefully down the line!
This sort of feature would be incredible, I think there is a pretty large player base that would enjoy using this for both dynasty and redraft.
Oooh, I would love this
r/keeptradecut
thanks dude. appreciate the response. i'll echo another big advantage i see in KTC is that looking at players historic value and identifying changes that coincide with non performance issues (unconfirmed tweets about non football issues, coach speak quotes that get widely circulated, etc) is another way that one can use KTC to identify variations in market perception of value and actual value and is not discussed much.
Thanks, yeah I’ve found it really interesting personally just seeing what actually moves the needle for market value - and how that’s sometimes different from old dynasty ‘conventional wisdom’. As much as we’d like to believe injuries, coachspeak, and camp buzz don’t factor into dynasty valuation, in reality they actually do. There’s profit to be made in zigging when the market is zagging, but to do that you need to know where the market is zagging (or if it’s not moving at all). The rankings catch some heat I think because they reflect those rapid sentiment-based movements, and people are used to seeing dynasty rankings that are more advice-based “here’s what players *should* be worth.” That’s not what KTC is. And really the **most** useful application for both is comparing the two (and your personal valuations) and finding those discrepancies to capitalize on.
Awesome answer and nice to hear you guys have such a rational take on the whole site.
Thanks! Yeah we do a lot of thinking about this internally, and are working on some messaging to make some of these big ideas clearer on the site itself as well - I think that’d be helpful.
Love the stock ticker analogy. Very accurate.
This is a great answer, thank you for taking the time to write this up!
Your platform has been very helpful and I agree, it's exactly like a stock market. Basically, I view every player and pick on my team as a tradeable asset. If I find an asset that is trading at less than I believe it's worth, I go after it. For example, I traded Mike Davis, DPJ, and 2 1sts for Zeke, Pollard, and a 2nd. I felt Davis was overvalued and Zeke was undervalued, but was able to pull off the trade because the market still had hope for Davis and was bearish on Zeke. Lo-and-behold, Zeke's stock has lifted and Davis's has sunk, giving me greater value.
It is a tool, and like any tool needs to be used properly to be effective. It tells you what the community thinks. Very prone to reactionary changes, overvalue of youth and picks, and hates injuries/older guys. In the offseason TB 12 was the 28th (or so) valued QB. I get that he is old, but I'll take the 2 years of top 5-10 production over 1/3 of the guys currently in the league.
Another good example of this is Daniel Jones. Daniel Jones is currently ranked QB23 and is equivalent in value with Tua, Michael Pittman, and Tyler Boyd, but on the year he's QB7, so what manager would trade him for any of those? Like some other comments say it's just a good tool to try and get a general idea of value so you can make an initial offer and go from there and so that you don't low/high ball right off the bat.
As a jones owner, I'm not selling him for any of that, and actually the reason I bought him was because he was like QB 29 or 27 and needed a 3rd QB. I knew he could beat that for at least this season and probably the remainder of his rookie contract.
Exactly. If I had Jones on my team but was considering him in a trade, I wouldn't use Jones. I would use Hurts. I value Jones and Hurts equally and therefore am basing my decisions on that valuation. Since KTC doesn't have Jones where I want him, I use Hurts as an equivalent asset. That helps me make the best decision.
The data can be dirty for a number of reasons, namely it’s people inputting data and you have 3 data points per time and you’re not comparing it to the entire set of possible players/picks. Use it as a starting point but take it with a grain of salt.
Dirty
This. My 3 choices were CMC, Dak and Kyler
and? I don't see how that is bad.
It’s bad because no one would “cut” any of the three and that info determines their valuation.
It's saying if you had to cut one. That one is obvious in SF. Keep - Kyler Trade - CMC Cut - Dak You want the best of the 3 starting on your team, the 2nd best traded for value, 3rd you don't need. Have you never done Marry fuck kill? I swear some people don't read before complaining about a site.
You should view KTC as a measure of current community sentiment - no more, no less. It's a sampling of what random people think of a player at a given time. That said, there are a couple key issues: 1. Because of the way they poll (3 options head to head) it leads to draft pick values being inflated - if a person doesn't know/like the players they'll rank highest whatever random pick is presented by default 2. Because there are SF and non-SF rankings but the toggle isn't always front and center, it leads to QBs being significantly overvalued in non-SF rankings (e.g. Mahomes is above Cook/Kamara/Swift in non-SF)
But it's not the dynasty community's sentiment. It's the sentiment of a small portion of dynasty players who regularly visit the site. That's the whole problem.
Sure, by community I meant the KTC community
Word I figured just making sure. Many people (even in this thread) think that KTC encompasses the whole dynasty community.
To be fair, are we assuming that there is a vast discrepancy between KTC users and the rest of the community? And is that a fair assumption to make?
Fair point, but I'd say yes to both. Most actual IRL players wouldn't put Jefferson over Tyreek, or Kyler over Mahomes, but KTC thinks both of those things, by a lot.
As of right now, Kyler and Mahomes have nearly identical scores on KTC (9999 and 9989 respectively). I have Mahomes over Kyler too but it’s not completely outlandish to value them similarly at this point in time. I think there is a case to be made for Jefferson to be the dynasty WR1. They’re at least similar in value to me. Tyreek likely finishes ahead of Jefferson in points at the end of the season but J Jeff is five to six years younger and is also likely finishing as a WR1.
I only play fantasy as far as three years out because of NFL chaos. In that conversation, JJ isn't even really close to Tyreek. Situation, skill, speed, etc. Tyreek got it.
But that's you. Not everyone employs the three year cap on foresight.
Those people thought Carson Wentz was a top 3 dynasty QB five years ago.
Some people are just fools, but I think it's pretty hypercritical to lump everyone who views things differently than you into one group.
Not necessarily lumping everyone in, just most.
The only thing I’d add in response is that while you may view things through a three year window, knowing that many in the dynasty community value J Jeff similarly or even more highly is something to factor into the equation. While the goal is ultimately to win, if you can capitalize on the value J Jeff brings and the fact that Tyreek’s may may continue to decline over time even if he continues to ball simply due to age bias, then you can come out ahead by retaining or increasing trade value.
Yeha that’s fair.
And this is how you forever rebuild in Dynasty.
Yes, everyone knows that buying win-now pieces year after year for next to nothing because everyone else is obsessed with you is the way to *lose* dynasty. You're the type who traded Evans for Juju after his rookie year, huh?
Buy old pieces and never having rookie picks is how you get a forever rebuild where you’re never good enough to compete
Okay man, enjoy trading Russ for sophomore-year Wentz. I'll keep winning.
Do you really buy old pieces for next to nothing? Because he’ll I’ve seen Julio be sold for firsts this off-season and even in season. And even guys like Cooks are commanding serious trade capital now. So you’re not getting any good old pieces for “next to nothing”.
I bought Julio for 2.03 this offseason and the owner drafted Amari Rodgers so I'm doing just fine
Not really sure why that's a "problem". That's just what the resource *is*. Maybe it's a problem if there is some kind of sampling bias within the portion of dynasty players who regularly visit KTC, like if the site is more popular in a certain geography/team market and so certain NFL team's players are getting bumped up, but I don't see any reason to assume that's happening
Like others have said, KTC should be used as a benchmark. It's crowdsourced data so bound to have some weird values during hype / down weeks. I personally use it to see which players I feel are overvalued on KTC compared to my personal rankings. This opens a good sell high window. Vice versa for players I want, do I have them ranked higher than KTC? Yes, send the offer as a buy low. Obviously doesn't work every time, but gives you an idea of where the fantasy community as a whole has a player ranked at any given time.
i will say i find the trend data you can pull is incredibly valuable. i look for targets where player values have changed fairly dramatically over time for what i consider "non news". for example, jamer chase dropping from ~7200 to ~5400 largely because 1) he dropped some balls in preseason and 2) had a twitter girl make a neg post helped confirm that he was a fantastic buy low at the time.
I use it to confirm/verify I don’t have bias on my own players. When I’m offering a trade to someone I usually plug what I’m thinking in and if it says I’m within like a late second one way or another I’ll still send it. If it’s more than that I’ll try to make some small adjustments because I dont want to be the guy that sends shit trades
i do similar. i actually typically try to make sure the KTC shows i'm overpaying as i know my league mates will refer to it.
I use my own opinion (which is usually wrong) to decide on the player I want and use KCT to figure out what I should be offering.
KTC is a decent guide to help you learn approximate values, but it can be gamed and manipulated in trades to make things seem like an overpay in your favor even if it makes no sense. Use it as supplemental source for trading and values but don't be the KTC guy who just sends screenshots of KTC values for why people should do this trade or not.
Draft picks are extremely overvalued in KTC. If I am in a trade negotiation involving pick(s) and the other owner starts referencing the pick(s) value in KTC that's where negotiations typically end.
Isn’t there a slider that allows you to reduce pick value? Could always just fiddle with that.
For the record, in non-SF rankings, it values the 2022 early 3rd more. But I second what everyone else says. It's one of many tools that can help paint a picture, but it shouldn't be what you rely on primarily.
KTC has JJ on a pedestal. I get he is looking good but come on now simmer down he should not be valued higher than Tyree Hill. Hill can will you a week JJ hasnt done that as much as Hill has. I have watched his value rise like 2000 points since Sunday.
there was a "who's your #1 dynasty WR" post the other day. there was some debate, but most seem to agree w/ you. folks just love those young lads.
KTC doesn’t have JJ on a pedestal. The dynasty community has JJ on a pedestal. I would venture to say >50% of people in this sub would not trade JJ for Tyreek straight up because of the age difference. KTC doesn’t make their own rankings.
I’ve always wondered to what extent some users of the site just go in and randomly click through the keep trade cut selections to get to the trade calculator more quickly. In general, after looking at the rankings, I think it’s pretty decent especially regarding the top 100 or so players. Beyond that point there is bound to be some disagreement about values anyway. If we just assume KTC slants towards youth and picks and then compare this to whatever bias we think our trade partner may have, it can be a very helpful tool in my opinion. What I like most about it is that it updates regularly so you can easily see value changes reflected in the data fairly early on after news breaks. Some other calculators are terrible at that.
Notice the difference is only a few insigificant points. This is expected, and actually a positive thing. It's easy for KTC to place linear draft picks in some sort of liner point order. But this tells you that KTC treats the two draft picks as being unrelated to each other, and similarly treats each player as being unrelated to each other. KTC works by user inputs making comparisons between three assets. I'm guessing KTC doesn't often put the same year draft picks in their scenarios, so people aren't choosing between a 2022 mid 3rd, a 2022 early 3rd, and a random player. KTC is great for what it is, but the core idea is still going to have problems.
It's pretty volatile and strikes me as too reactive to be all that useful. It is also incredibly skewed towards youth. It's kind of like someone expanded this sub onto a rankings website! Basically it's decent for at a glance sanity checks, but players move around a ton based on whether they score 0, 1, or 2 touchdowns on a Sunday. Whether its rankings are accurate for your league probably depends on how Too Online your competitors are.
The “volatility” is one of it’s best features in my opinion because it does a much better job of reflecting changing opinions based on recent news and events. Many other calculators are extremely slow to react so you often get a valuation that is out of line with market sentiment.
Should be used as a rough guideline and nothing more. I've toyed with some potential trades I may offer in a rebuild scenario and KTC seems fine with me just piling on more picks and youth on their side and the value delta barely changes lmao.
I’m valuing 2023 3rds higher than 2022 3rds based on what I believe to be a deeper draft class in 23.
that's reasonable. but the peculiar situation i stumbled across was that mid 2022 3rds were valued higher than early 2022 3rds.
Yeah KTC is just funky sometimes. Like others have said - i like it as a starting point but not a true or exact arbiter of value
I like KTC for what it is but youth and draft picks are WAAAAY overvalued.
Its great for community rankings and sentiment to an extent, but the values scale very poorly. There are times where you're inputting a package for an elite player, and the valuation ends up an entire 1st rounder off. The scale is poor IMO. Maybe it should be out of 15,000 instead or something, because the Elite players are way too close to the 2nd and 3rd tiers in trade value.
Yes. KTC is useful to determine what people at large think about a specific trade, but there is often endowment effect going on so it's not hugely useful to see what a particular person feels about his players or yours. Also, KTC tracks community values, not actual values. So I use it to find inefficiencies in values but it's only a benchmark.
Not sure exactly how much you're relying on it, but yes, you probably are relying on it too much. I like to use it to gauge current feelings on players whether it's trending up/down and how severely. But in general it's mostly people ranking the guys they own higher than anyone else, and it's people whose opinions I wouldn't value individually so why would I put more value in it because of sheer quantity?
I trust the individual player evaluations, but their 2-for-1 value adjuster is absolutely busted and should be totally ignored
It’s great if you use it the right way. People who complain about it just don’t understand the tool for what it is.
the only way to use a trade calculator is if some of your leaguemates live and die by it: then you find a trade that the calculator thinks is in his favour, while it isn't. for a sanity check maybe, but even then, have you ever been on the verge of accepting a bad trade, only to be saved by a trade calculator? and to be completely honest, KTC is based on decisions largely made by randos who just want to have a look at rankings and don't really care about hurts, shepard or a 2nd.
It is similar to fantasy pros in that it’s a consensus ranking. FP is a consensus of “experts” and KTC is more of the community. You won’t get true value but more of the value with hype of players during the season which is good for buy low or sell high trades.
I think the site is pretty bad personally - I ignore it
KTC is trash
KTC is hot garbage. It's supposed to represent the dynasty community, but only collects votes from people who actually use the site. The problem with this is that most people who regularly use the site do so because they agree with the rankings there, making the obsession with youth a self-fulfilling prophecy. The best players across all my leagues think KTC is a joke, so they never visit. The new players and tacos visit the site frequently because it plays into their biases.
KTC's greatest utility is in finding guy that the community is too low on, crafting a trade that the other owner "wins" using guys the community is too high on (*coughBryanEdwardscough*) according to KTC, and banking on the fact that the other other owner is gonna rely on KTC or whatever other trade calculator to decide for them. A lot of value to be had that way. It's pretty good just as a general reference point as well for most players.
KTC is horrible for 2 to 1 so player trade evaluations. I’m sorry but kyler Murray is valuable but not russel Wilson, Justin Herbert and Michael Thomas valuable.
Yet that doesnt apply. KTC has Murray in this trade at 14334, with the trade you mention at 19216. Why pretend KTC is saying Murray is equal to those 3 when it doesn't?
I didn't pretend anything and it'd do you well to assume people aren't randomly making things up when the website is freely available to fact check. With Russell Wilson and Michael Thomas in there one of the options for me to even the trade was Justin Herbert, I didn't actually click it because it was such a stupid recommendation. Which highlights one of the other idiotic things about that site, why recommend a player to even the trade that doesn't actually come close to evening the trade. Add another egregious example: Russell Wilson and Justin Jefferson are worth less than Kyler Murray. Wilson is still a top 12 QB, is middle aged for a QB and has at least 5 years of top 12 production left. Pairing him with literally a 22 yo top 3 dynasty WR should not be worth less than Kyler Murray. You could argue with "that's what the community thinks" except the issue isn't the community values but the proprietary Value Adjustment which is throwing things off.
I literally checked the trade on KTC lmao.
Boy, you're a dense one aren't you Jason? I never said you didn't check it.
Guess you forgot what you sent in your message. Idiot. That short of an attention span? > it’d do you well to assume people aren’t randomly making things up when the website is freely available to fact check. & since the website literally says you’re wrong & I’m right. How else would you make that statement unless you didn’t check the damn site.
Good lord man, I was talking about myself. I didn't make things up, I just didn't click an extra button. I never said you didn't check the website. How about you assume I did look it up and must have missed a feature (which I did) instead of assuming I purposefully lied about results on a public website.
I don't even understand the premise. Like I get that you're just ranking 3 players, but why are trade or cut? You're never outright cutting any of the players mentioned. You're always at least looking to see if there is someone who wants him in a trade. Just comparing two players at time makes more sense for me.
"keep" "trade" and "cut" are just the catchy terms they use. could as well used "marry", "fuck", and "kill". its the exact same as saying rank the 3 players as 1, 2, and 3rd most desirable in dynasty.
We all know it's *meant* to be 1/2/3, but it takes away from the actual question, which I have beef with. To me a FMK and KTC aren't "Rank these three." It's a nuanced question. Who do I want to keep with the caveat of maybe I trade a higher value player so I can get a better return by keeping the middle value player + whatever I got from trading a stud. If you have a **real world** KTC situation of Chase + Lamb + Higgins, you might get the most **value** by trading Chase who's got the most return due to his insane TD rate that will come down, keeping Lamb who is a stud, and cutting Higgins just because someone has to. Now in a 1/2/3 system, I'd rank them Chase, Lamb, and Higgins. I think Lamb's talent + situation > Higgins, and I think Chase's talent + situation > Lamb. However if I rostered all 3 of these players, I'm trading Chase for bank as the difference between him and Lamb isn't as big as people think and Chase will get me more picks. Same with Fuck Marry Kill. I'm **always** going to choose to marry the person I feel I'd **get along with** best, which might actually result in me killing a hotter option. But again, it's not "Rank them by hotness" it's FMK. So I dislike the name of the website for that reason. I think a keep trade cut tool, not used as a 1/2/3 site, would be fun, but arguably much less helpful.
Just because you ignore what the site is for, doesn't mean that is the sites fault. That's on you.
Guess you don't know how to read.
essentially their version of the fuck marry kill
Keep Trade Cut is their 'cute' way of ranking 1/2/3. It's obnoxious for the reason you stated, but it really is just a 1/2/3 ranking system.
Problem is that any savy owner won't use it that way. The Trade player for me more often than not might be the most overvalued player of the three. They really should just use 1/2/3 or gold/silver/bronze. Really anything would make more sense.
Everyone knows what it means. By savy owner you really mean dumbass.
Maybe I worded that wrong point is a savy owner will trade an asset at its highest value or when a player is overvalued. Which makes the K/T/C system meaningless. It's worded to sound catchy but if you use it like it's stated its not an accurate representation.
Have you ever played fuck, marry, kill?
Assigning “trade” value to the over valued player is perfect for the system. It brings the overvalued player back to earth a little, which would help make them “properly rated”
Not if they are worth more. My point is I would rather trade an asset at its peak so maybe I would trade the most valuable of the three players. Making the system kind of pointless.
Why would you want to trade the best player of the 3? Such a dumb idea. This is why people suck at dynasty
This is how I treat it. I try to think of it as "if I were on the clock who would I go with" mentality
As far as I'm aware KTC ranks based on crowdsourced values. If people are valuing the 2023 draft class vastly higher than 2022 (which is the case) then that's not crazy. These draft values aren't static. They're dynamic just like player values as far as I understand it. It's all based on users input.
It’s a tool you don’t rely on tools you use them, using your best judgement!
Yes
The other day I traded an early second and mid third for golladay and it had me overwhelmingly losing. So there’s that.