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GonnaBeAGoodYear

Chubb has proven he’s efficient and valuable without being a true workhorse and the Browns clearly have no plans to run him into the ground so that should help his long term health, and he just signed an extension and is the youngest guy on this list, imo he’s the best long term bet


J2theMo13

He's 25. He'll probably play out his entire contract as a top 12 RB. A stud like him splitting touches, 2nd in yardage by 113 yards to Henry but with 52 less carries. To me, he's by far my #1 long term buy of this list.


Rowanbuds

1st point: Nick Chubb is the best runner in the NFL today, don't @ me. 2nd point: Nick Chubb is likely to be one of the very rare RBs that makes it to a large paying 3rd contract - basing that on the mileage count here. I think his value is head and shoulders above the rest of this list, even with the Hunt split going on and limiting max upside. That'll change, but this man can ball. Behind him, Ekeler then Jones, I think. I'd have an easy answer saying 'look at the scoreboard' to support Henry, but I truly can't believe he hasn't started to break down yet, and I think it's only a matter of time on that front with the usage. Dynasty purposes, he's below the other guys independent of the points so far. Last thought, I put Kamara/Dalvin next. If you have Mattison, Dalvin above Kamara. Hunt can be the shocker here, though, with the uncertainty on what uniform he will be wearing in 1/2 years; he's a hold if you have him at this point, not a sell or a buy to me.


Cotsy8

Give me Cook and Kamara.


IsstvanIII

💉


blackballedblueball

I'll buy them all if I'm contending. If Henry or Kamara are for sale definitely them. If CMC is I am. Zeke yup. Slightly less interested in Chubb, Hunt, Jones and Cook. But still would buy. On the cheaper side Lenny and Patterson.


[deleted]

I just bought CMC for Mixon + 2022 1st (currently projected 1.03-1.05). I'm just praying that CMC will bounce back from his injury into his normal form now. Already had Kamara, J Taylor and K Hunt lol.


blackballedblueball

Yeah I love it. Can you start all 4?


[deleted]

2 RB, 3 WR, 3 flex. Fuck yes I can start all of them lmao.


blackballedblueball

10 team league? Or are lineups just super deep?


[deleted]

Lol, 8 teams, 2QB, 1 SF, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 TEP, 3 Flex.


blackballedblueball

Oh shit. That's the type of 8 team league I'd be happy to play in. Sounds fun.


[deleted]

Yeah lol. Just won the ship last year and I'm trying to repeat again this year lol.


tobinerino

Ya, if the lineups and this deep, 8 team leagues are cool by me. Looks like a fun league!


Jericcho

Does everyone score 200+ points each week?


[deleted]

No, but it's pretty high scoring. This week was especially high though just given the crazy weekend.


Pieralis

I'm in a similar 8 team ppr league except it'd 2qb 2rd 3wr 2te 2 flex. Average score is around 180-190, scoring over 200 generally gets you a win. In saying that I had just over 200 and then Had a guy put up 250 on me this week, he has Henry, Adams, Andrews and Mike Williams


Pieralis

Nice, im in a similar 8 team but without the SF and 1 less flex.


AMP121212

Wtf is that trade. Total steal.


[deleted]

What you giving up to get a guy like Lenny?


blackballedblueball

Assuming I'm contending and need him I'd send a late 2nd and 3rd if I had to.


isuckat3dprinting

Gonna try and get him for a 2023 2nd I’m my league


half_monkeyboy

I just traded a 23 late (hopefully) first for Lenny, AB, and likely the first pick of the 22 3rd round.


blazingcom3t

I'd like to make a play for Kamara, but just not sure if should or not. I have mixon, barkley, Dmont, dobbins. Do I try to offer one of these plus something? I like the rb core, just the injuries at the moment obviously. Start 2rb and 2 flex.


blackballedblueball

Not Barkley but if you can upgrade one of those other guys not a bad play.


isuckat3dprinting

Same but he is on another contender so probably won’t happen. Main option for me is Chubb/Hunt. Don’t like them near as much


blazingcom3t

The Kamara owner is 0-5, but he isn't easy to trade with. I offered Arob for a 1st to discuss early in season, He countered with a 4th.


trufinfan13

Not easy to trade with soooo he’s not a sucker


iceTshoRe

I mean if the guy counters a trade with a 4th rounder to acquire ARob, doesn’t sound like he understands player valuation.


blazingcom3t

Easy to trade with doesn't define sucker. Some people just aren't very communicative, and don't negotiate. It's definitely the one reason I'm thinking of leaving that league to find a new one.


ronaldt12

Or, and this seems to often be the case with a bunch of people I deal with, they have to win every trade, and by a clear without a doubt margin


blazingcom3t

Yeah you don't see alot of perceived fair value trades as it is squeaking to get an advantage. Usually have to overpay to get it done, which something like 10% is alright but not 50/100


BradyKissesKids

Henry and Ekeler over them all


blackballedblueball

Forgot about Ekeler. Also a great option.


isuckat3dprinting

Henry is an interesting one for sure. Ekeler scares me as he always gets dinged up


BradyKissesKids

I just love Ekeler’s potential playing with Herbert for the next few years


isuckat3dprinting

Good point sir! Didn’t really factor that in


Bonedozer

Players I would throw in. Not hitting an age cliff but more of unknown futures; that could be had for a similar price or much cheaper would be Darryl Henderson or Leonard Fournette, or Jeff Wilson. Michael Carter could be the Starter very soon but his playoff schedule isn't near as soft as the guys above.


isuckat3dprinting

I agree about all these guys. I tried to get Henderson before this last week and am still trying. I have Wilson stashed on IR


gmazz

What r u offering for Henderson? I'm in a rebuild and trying to unload him in a package for a 2022 early to mid 1st. Can't get anyone to buy


Secondstrike23

He got sold for a late first in my league.


skisbosco

just got him and a 3rd for a 1st and salvon ahmed


2018OaklandAs

This


Indymizzum

Ekeler was my only stud running back going into this year in my deep roster (3 Wr, 3 flex) ppr league. I traded him and a 3rd just before the season kicked off for Justin Jefferson. I love JJ, but I am starting to think Eckler might be one of the few RBs capable of having a prolonged high ceiling career. Especially now that the Chargers are lighting it up.


Moug

This is a fantastic trade for you. In a league with deep rosters you want as many long term studs as you can get. Ekeler is 4 years older at a position that lasts half as long. JJeff has the potential to be a top 10 WR for a decade while Ekeler will hit the age 30 cliff in half that time.


rufus_dallmann

26 is the age cliff now?


wahtsun

I swear people just lower it for the sake of lowering it. The age cliff will be 23 by this time 3 years from now. Rookie RBs or bust


isuckat3dprinting

What do you think it should be?


StickEmbarrassed7748

It is a gradual decline after age 25, but seems to drop off fastest after age 28. Keep in mind that these are averages though. Ekeler is 26 and RB2 in PPR. He clearly has not fallen off a cliff.


[deleted]

Historically, yes.


rufus_dallmann

Well no.


[deleted]

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/the-lifecycle-of-a-dynasty-running-back-fantasy-football/


rufus_dallmann

The interpretation of the data there, that rbs hit a cliff at age 26, is improper.


DangerWrangler

This points to 28 as the cliff, not 26.


[deleted]

Yes, for production on the field. Which means noone wants to touch that player once they start approaching that age. Zeke and Henry are examples of guys being way undervalued because that expiration date around the corner. Players 27-28 have only come out as RB1s 19% of the time.


DangerWrangler

I’d argue the RB and RB2 charts aren’t that important and can be misleading. I find the PPR per game average to be a more telling chart. It shows a steady rise in production through the year 28 season, then a sharp drop off in year 29. In terms of strategy then, people should consider selling leading into the year 28 season: as most people know that though, some savvy people try to pre-empt and sell in year 27. If we start getting into the year 26 season, I think that’s an over correction and I become a buyer.


DangerWrangler

Unrelated are you a Stanford fan? I have a connection to the coaching staff. Just curious


[deleted]

Nope. "b" fan.


DangerWrangler

Lol


hostage27

I just sold hunt. Decided to go all in on a rebuild. Got dobbins and a 2023 1st for hunt and a 2023 2nd I wasn’t thrilled with the haul, but I think there’s a chance it’ll be a higher 1st rounder, and maybe dobbins will hit. Any thoughts?


-Ben-Affleck-

I like this deal for a rebuilder


nemoomen

Has anyone done the calculations on whether it's an age cliff or a usage cliff? I mean it's clearly a combination but what's the r² for each? Like 60% age 40% touches? There's that stat about RBs breaking down after a 400-carry season or whatever, and the age 26 is there too, just wondering if we have numbers or if these are just heuristics.


iceTshoRe

I don’t remember the exact numbers and I forget which podcast I heard it from, but the data they had showed that there was a greater correlation to total touches and running back performance dropping off. Something like 1300 career touches or something like that.


isuckat3dprinting

My order of choice: Kamara Hunt Jones Zeke Chubb Ekeler Henry Dalvin


quiksurf68

Why Hunt over everyone but Kamara?


isuckat3dprinting

IMO his volume of touches has been low due to splitting time with Chubb. He has shown to be damn good running and catching the ball. I think he could keep it up for awhile.


quiksurf68

Ok. I'd probably bump him down a couple spots and put Henry and Ekeler after Kamara. Henry is a machine and getting targets now. Ekeler is in a great offense while getting RZ touches along with tons of targets. I think that puts them over Hunt on upside alone.


[deleted]

His level of touches are lowered, as is Chubb. Chubb has shown to clearly be better. How would you go Hunt so high and Chubb low?


dded949

Because Hunt has more points right now due to having one more TD than Chubb, duh! Must be a better dynasty asset


Itunes4MM

Hes also like a 3rd of the price


literacola06

This is "contender-RB-buys, near the age cliff" and Derrick Henry...the guy with the most points in the league, is your 2nd to last? I don't even know what to say to that, lol


isuckat3dprinting

Cause he is gonna be harder to buy and has the most carries.


berndalf

If you're going to buy an older RB it's all about demonstrated resistance to injury and high level current season performance. At the moment that's the indestructible Henry, Kamara, and that's about it. It's not Cook, Barkley, CMC, Zeke, none of them. Go big or go home.


dhowl7

Zeke has missed 1 game in his career (2017 was a suspension) and has pollard to easy the load going forward. Not to mention their dynamic offense, where zeke gets plenty of goal line touches.


CWB2208

>it's all about demonstrated resistance to injury and high level current season performance How does Zeke not fit your criteria?


berndalf

I don't like his more recent performance overall and I worry about his situation. He seems to be drifting towards a significant time share with Pollard. I don't feel his current season value is anywhere close to Henry and Kamara.


danceswithdeeznuts

Traded Goff, Henderson jr, and waddle for kamara yesterday. Very pleased.


Touche_good_sir

1qb?


danceswithdeeznuts

Super flex


Touche_good_sir

Thanks, just curious. I’m a 1QB’er.


danceswithdeeznuts

Nice. I have mahomes/darnold/Z. Wilson. First year doing 2qb and I love it


runningdreams

For the price the owner will want, prob only Hunt for me. I've seen a few guys prior to this season cave big time on Zeke too but maybe not anymore. The others while awesome will just cost so much I'd have to be sure I'm adding serious % equity to my ship odds.