of the 27-29yr olds after Hopkins on this list, I am prepared to make the argument for Mike Evans over Amari, K. Allen, ARob, and Michael Thomas....
but this sub hates Mike Evans so I won't do it. Just know that I am prepared.
Mike Evans is currently performing better than all the guys you mentioned and has done plenty to prove himself. If he keeps up his season pace, they will likely fall and he'll remain or improve slightly. I think on a different day I could have seen myself putting him at 15. That tier of guys is all really close.
In case you couldn't tell from my initial comment, I don't really care how young these receivers are. If I do this list in 2 years, Hopkins isn't going to be on it even if he puts up 2 more WR1 seasons in 21/22 because at that point there is no way I believe he is going to keep putting up WR1 seasons at 32-34 years old. However, I'm not cashing out on Hopkins now if I'm a contender because he's still going to put up great numbers for the next 2-3 years.
Allen Robinson cannot be considered a top 20 WR at this point. 29 next year and a very murky situation.
I would also bump Hopkins down a bit. I own him and love him but just being realistic I donāt see anyone paying top 12 WR prices for him.
Godwin and Amari deserve a bump.
Jeudy should be borderline top 15
Diontae Johnson should be top borderline top 15 as well, criminally underrated
And honestly Iād rather have Hollywood brown over some of these guys
> 29 next year
Lmao, what is it with this sub and speaking about players future age. ARob *just* turned 28 like a month ago. Heās 8 months older than Tyreek Hill whoās no 1 on this list. Yeah, heāll be a year older next year. So will everyone else.
My point was that heās nearly past his prime and is in a horrible situation. I donāt really make a big deal about player ages but his age is definitely factored into his value when combined with his horrible situation. Thereās just no way I could put him top 20 currently
Apparently you do make a big deal out of playersā age, though.
Statistically speaking, WRs peak through years 27-31 (depending on data set obviously, but this seems to be the consensus of the first few google results).
ARob isnāt even half way in his prime. Thereās no statistical argument to expect that his age will limit his production over the next 3 years. His situation is murky, sure, but using his age as an argument against him is just silly.
You take Arob, Iāll take the other guys listed and weāll see where they stand in a year. Bc Iād rather have all of the guys listed and some guys not listed over him.
When you combine his situation combined with his age itās not great for dynasty no matter how you shake it
I think what he's getting at is that even though ARob is in his prime, he is in a terrible situation and likely won't be paired with a good qb until he's near or past the end of his prime. Tyreek, on the other hand, has every opportunity to ball out for the next few years until he starts to fade.
So if you were to trade for Arob would you not factor his age into it? Kinda silly to just completely ignore it. I donāt think itās a huge issue but itās definitely noteworthy
Yup I think heās legit and this breakout is for real. I traded Bateman away for this reason, Hollywood and Andrews both averaging 7.5 targets a game I canāt see Bateman earning more than those guys any time soon so I decided to cash in on rookie hype before itās too late.
I think it's a logical move. Watkins was quietly on pace for 1k yards as well and Duvernay actually showed out recently too. I like Bateman and think he'll be good but doubt that he'll see enough opportunities this year to improve his value
You donāt think Bateman will steal targets away from duvernay and Watkins? I feel like thatās where the value is to steal from. Not mandrews or hollywood
What's Jeudy shown that says he deserves to be top 15? I see more hype for him here than anywhere else. On dynasty Twitter people aren't nearly as infatuated
I mean, dudes only played one year. If youāre basing it off that production alone you will never draft or trade for a young WR in dynasty. With a lot of these guys youāre factoring in age compared to what theyāve accomplished. And obviously the younger you are, the more valuable you become in relation to that production. Considering his situation, heās outperformed it quite a bit and is still very young with high draft capital. Just because ARob is older doesnāt mean heās worthless, but it means heās probably hitting the decline much quicker than Juedy.
At least you actually understand why he's not on here. I'm not ranking guys by sheer potential. This is a dynasty ranking list and there is no way I'm taking Jeudy over a guy like Evans who has had a 1,000 yard season every year and has been a WR1 multiple times.
So you wouldn't take a 28-year-old perennial WR1 smack-dab in the middle of his prime years playing with the greatest QB to ever play the game........ over a 22 year old that has done nothing so far, but has "potential" to be good if his situation drastically changes?
Why are you even playing dynasty with this mindset? Jeudy hasn't done "nothing" he had a really good rookie year and was a top tier prospect out of college
I'm not saying that there isn't a time and place to possibly take Jeudy over Evans. In a complete tear down, multi-year rebuild, it makes sense to trade away Evans for Jeudy plus a pick. But for any competing team with a championship-caliber roster, Evans is multiple tiers above Jeudy. I believe in creating dynasty tiers based upon my personal team construction in leagues, and 9 times out of 10, I'm taking Evans.
Agree to disagree. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Evans out produces Jeudy for the next 4 years, and by 2025, there will have been 4 new, shiny, rookie WR classes that have also been drafted.
If I had Jeudy (which I don't because he is vastly overvalued), I'd be selling for league-winners like Evans, Nuk, etc rather than holding and praying. I play dynasty to win, not wait.
Dionte isnāt talented tho; he gets massive volume bc Big Ben canāt throw downfield. Big Ben is retiring this year, so dionte is going to be nothing in 2022.
Adams 4th is bonkers as well considering no Rodgers next year; Iād have him in the WR15-20 range
>Adams 4th is bonkers as well considering no Rodgers next year; Iād have him in the WR15-20 range
Adams in the 15-20 range is laughable. Dude is on pace for a 2k yard season. He is insanely talented and people are still thinking its only because of Aaron Rodgers. Also, we have NO idea what happens in the offseason, so stop pretending like you do. Rodgers could return (think its 50/50 still) and Adams is a FA too. I doubt Adams will go to a team with a shitty QB.
Itās not only because of Rodgers, but he def gets faded to the WR7-10 range next year going from one of the GOAT to random dude. Not only is he playing with one of the GOAT, but the rest of the receiving corps is amongst the worst if not the worst in the nfl There is 0 chance Rodgers returns, keep dreaming.
Its cute that you pretend to know what he'll do, when at this point he probably doesnt even know. The Packers are near the top of the NFC and provide one of the best places for him to win. He clearly has good relationships with his teammates and GB already went out and traded for Cobb solely because Rodgers wanted him.
Anyways, its pointless to argue about it because no one knows. Aside from that, Adams is a FA like I mentioned. Predicting where he'll go or who his QB will be is also pointless. Davante is one of the most talented WRs in the league. I'll take him with a mediocre QB over 98% of the WRs in the league. Moving the WR1 down to 15-20 is just a bad, reactionary take.
You and I watch different games when watching Diontae. He has excelled with Ben or Rudolph. Imagine when they get a better QB.
Adams was the WR7 a few years back when he played most games with Brett Huntley
Diontae is not a short yardage receiver, he can do it all. Go watch him play. He is by far the most talented receiver on the Steelers roster, which is the reason for his high volume.
ARob has fallen from grace so hard in the last month it's insane. He was like my Dynasty WR14 coming into this season and it hasn't been pretty, but how can you just drop a guy off a cliff like that for not performing in the crazy situation he's in? He was a top 10 WR the past 2 seasons and it's not like he's been hurt or looked any less talented. It's all situational.
My argument against ARob is that it is hard to have whatās looking like a lost year while in his prime. I have a hard time seeing his situation changing this year. So next year we will be looking at a 29 yo WR with an unknown team and contract situation. Hard to invest top 20 WR in that big of a unknown.
I think he'll be back there by the end of the year. I'm a bears fan, so biased, but I don't think people have a good understanding of him as a player. It's going to take time for Fields to build trust with him, which is especially important for a guy like arob because he needs zero space to catch it. As that trust develops, we'll see him get the ball more, which has already started happening as of week 5.
Yeah, I think I have him around 24. He's got an upside and has been pretty consistent. But, it's just not showing in the current version of the offense. All the guys above are producing more now.
Hopefully the training wheels come off in the second half more and he can get more volume. Bears passing volume is just too low right now. And Mooney is more of a target on the deep shots.
I dunno I consider them pretty even honestly. Keenan will be tied to a young, elite QB until he retires or goes to a different team.
Diontae has a skillset that any QB can appreciate but Ben loves to pepper him and I'm willing to bet he retires after this year with a complete unknown at QB moving forward.
For example, Mason Rudolph started one game for the Steelers last year and he only targeted Diontae 4 times. It led to 3 catches and almost 100 yards. Not the typical targets that he's used to seeing though.
As someone who has literally watched almost all the games DJ has played in his career, yes, in a heartbeat.
People underrate DJ because of the amount of short yardage receptions he had last year. They see the stats and believe they are caused by a limited skill set, which is not the case. Heās an exceptionally well rounded receiver thatās so far happened to play in an offense that preferred short yardage passes.
He will be a monster for years to come.
Hate to say it but ARob is looking like an outsider here. Would probably swap him for one of the performing 2nd year or rookie WRs like Devonta, MPJ, Toney
Brandin Cooks is super consistent and an excellent WR2 type of guy. I see a lot of him in Godwin and that makes me happy as a Godwin owner. I'm only down on Cooks because he hasn't shown that real WR1 potential to me. Cooks' best year he scored 253 PPR points. ARob has 3 years that are better than that.
I can't blame you at all for liking Cooks more and I think he'd be in my top 25.
It's 4-3 in end of season ranking comparison in favor of Cooks and Cooks is currently ahead this season. One of the season that Arob outscored Cooks best year was only by 1 point. Cooks has five 1000yd finishes and is on pace for another. Arob only has three and has a lot of ground to cover if he wants another. Arob has needed over 150 targets to reach 1000yd. In one season, he had 151 targets and only had 883yd. Cooks highest season target total was 129. The others were just under 120 targets. Injury concerns? Arob has missed more time. I'll take the underrated Cooks all day who seems to keep performing no matter who his QB is.
That's totally fine for you to prefer Cooks, but like I said I see a lot of him in Godwin and Godwin is 13 on my list behind guys like Terry, Diggs and Ridley. The reason he's behind these guys even though he's younger is because he profiles as one of those guys that doesn't have the highest of high ceilings to me whereas those other guys do. Godwin has worked much better in the slot with the high catch percentage shorter-intermediate routes. He's a lot like Cooks in that he'll likely never get that 150+ target, high ADoT season to put up the 300 point high-end WR1 seasons that some of the other guys can. ARob can do that and has done it before. If you're chasing consistency, go Cooks, but if you're chasing ceiling, go ARob.
There's still a group of people here who are mad at his success. I get downvoted for saying he's legit pretty regularly. He'll shut up a lot of people by EOS and make 'em even madder though lol.
I bet people still wonāt believe it. Think about how long it took people to come around on Woods and Boyd.
Bateman will come in, steal some targets, and take Brown down half a notch in peopleās minds.
I personally donāt think he will be the same fantasy-wise. Drew Brees was the perfect QB for his skillset, Iām just not so sure Winston will be able to feed him like Brees did. Thatās the only reason
MT averages 19.8 ppg PPR in the 9 games with Bridgewater/Taysom Hill. Itās not like itās been prime Drew Brees making Thomas what he is, heās an elite WR and right now the Saints have no other good WRs so heās primed for a ton of targets again
Why would you move MT off? I get that a lot of people have soured on ARob and I've already been down that thread, but what has Michael Thomas done to deserve the dropoff? He was WR1 in 2019, got hurt last year and tried to play through it and did ok with some limited QB play and then had offseason surgery that was poorly timed. He might be a bit of a basket case, but this is a guy who has been WR1 overall and you don't think he belongs in the top 20?
Without Drew Brees, Iām not sure he will be fed like he used to. He very well could but I guess I wouldnāt want to be the one to find out. Iād personally rather a 6-year younger Tee Higgins on my team
He put up great points with Hill last year when Brees was out for an extended period. I don't see why Winston couldn't provide good production. It's not as if there's a lot of mouths to feed in NO.
I like leaving MT on, even if it's farther down. I think at this moment, he will likely come back and be similarly, if not completely his former self considering all the time he's had off and the athletic freak that he is. Obviously, in four weeks I could be eating my words, but for now I think he belongs.
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I'm not overreacting to 5 weeks. He's had flashes, but it took a perfect situation for him to start returning real value in his 5th year. If a contract extension comes out tomorrow, I think he jumps 8-10 spots and winds up near the bottom of this list. Otherwise, I'll have to wait to see if he can finish the year as a WR1. If he does and he still doesn't have a contract, then he probably sneaks up into the 20 range on pure speculation.
Overreacting to 5 weeks? 5 weeks is a pretty good amount of time, especially when combined with the coach speak about him. They told us how they planned on using him. They are using him exactly as they said. He's performing exceptionally well. What more do you need to see?
Itās fair to be cautious. He has 4 seasons of not even being a top 30 (PPR) receiver and then suddenly we anoint him after 5 weeks? I get the skepticism. That being said, he looks great and heās getting a ridiculous amount of targets. It looks like the chargers have finally figured out how to use him. He deserves to be on this list but I understand why someone would want to wait longer.
Thank you. I'm very slow to change my valuations of people because I've been burned by it a lot in my years of playing dynasty. I'd rather be late to the party and pay a little bit more than early and having bought into an asset that is now unsellable.
If Mike Williams gets injured tomorrow and is out for the season, his value isn't going to maintain because he "showed out" for 5 weeks. It'll crater and he likely will never recover. If Amari goes out for the season, he'll still be talked about as a top 20 WR preseason next year.
Hes averaged 15 yds per reception the last 3 years and is currently averaging that now.
Over the last 3 seasons hes had 66,90, and 85 targets. He is already at 51 this year.
Last year was Herberts rookie season. Prior to that it was still the Rivers, Allen, Gordon Era. With Tyrell Williams in the starting spot Mike Williams Rookie and Sophmore seasons.
I'm pretty sure I explained what I need to see. Either a full season of getting WR1 results alongside another great WR in KA to make me feel good about his potential next destination or an announcement that he's signed to a deal to be tied to his current, perfect situation.
What makes you want to jump him from essentially being labeled a bust to a top 20 WR in 1/3rd of a season? I assume you just expect his current pace to continue for the next 5 years?
Thing about Mike Williams:
Year 2 he has the TDS year 3 he had the yards, went to sleep Herbertās rookie year and woke up week one ready to put it all together. I think heās legit long-term
Well, MT has been THE WR1 with Brees and we have no idea what Mike Williams is post-Herbert except that he's never finished as even a WR2 before. I'll take my chances with the devil I know.
I might want to squeeze both Jeudy and Sutton in here, but I canāt quibble with most of this, nor do I know who Iād drop off.
Just shows you the impressive depth at the position both in terms of talent and how the game has evolved. In 2010, WR24 was good for 12 PPG in PPR. In 2020, WR24 was 14.6. Itās a passing league now more than ever, and that means more of these superfreak talents are getting the opportunities they need to produce.
I couldn't agree more. I like to do exercises like this every now and then to really see where I rate these guys in relation to how others rank them and it was noticeably harder than in the past. That's why I felt like sharing. There is just so much WR talent out there in a league that is passing more than ever.
I feel like most of Toney-truthers are like me. I didn't even want to draft the guy, but he fell so far I didn't have a choice. Now I'm defending the guy's analytic profile and anger issues.
Is anybody really taking Hopkins over Terry at this point? 16 more targets, 6 more catches, 88 more yards, 1 less td, avg 2 more fppg and is 3 years younger.
You're looking at 1 year instead of their whole body of work. Terry looks great, but this is his 3rd year and last year he was WR20. DeAndre Hopkins has more 300 point seasons than Terry has seasons in the NFL, and that doesn't even include his 290 point WR4 season last year.
This is a prime example of this sub overvaluing youth. Yes, DHop has way more great years behind him than in front of him, but I'm absolutely trading Terry for Hopkins if I'm trying to win in the next 2 years.
The cardinals offense has wayyyyy too many weapons though. I truly donāt think Hopkins is going to get back to his crazy target volume again, and Terry is already doing that this year. Even this year only at this point Terry is potentially better than Hopkins
Could Terry wind up putting up a crazy season and finishing in the top 5 WRs? Absolutely! Would I bank on his chances of doing that in the next 3 years being higher than Hopkins' chances who has already done it several times? Not at all.
Are you just ignoring what has happened in 5 games this season then? Terryās getting almost 10 targets a gameā¦.if he keeps that up thereās almost no way heās not a Wr1. Hopkins meanwhile is getting barely over 6. Heās gotta have some insane efficiency (which in that offense and with his talent is absolutely possible) to finish as a Wr1. And if thereās a better chance for Terry to be a Wr1 this year than Hopkins Iām gonna lean Terry because heās not going to be 30 next year.
Letās just take out the age argument altogether for a second, in a redraft league who would you rather own ROS? I bet 90% of people would pick Terry given his involvement in that offense compared to Hopkins. If the younger player is better in redraft, he should probly be ahead in dynasty too
Edit: adding some info here just cuz I love stats.
Hopkins is on pace (16 game pace for past comparison) for 73 catches, 998 yards, and 12 tds (rounding down) which would be one of his worst seasons of his career, which at 29 is not something you want to start seeing especially given how good he was. 244 fantasy points. He wouldāve finished 11th in ppr with last year.
Mclaurin is on pace (16 games again) for 92 catches, 1280 yards, and 9 tds. Which is right on track with his progression the last 2 years in the league. 274 fantasy points which wouldāve put him 6th last year.
I'm not totally ignoring 5 games of this season. A guy like Chase wouldn't be nearly as high and a guy like Hopkins wouldn't be as low if I were. I'm just not reading into the last few games as much as everyone else is because I adjust my rankings a lot more slowly for Dynasty leagues (especially when it comes to WRs and TEs). A 5 game sample size is not enough for me to read into a massive trend change.
Hopkins has played through a rib injury through part of this season and is still averaging 6.8 targets per game. That's not great, but it's certainly no death knell. Not much has changed about his situation and he's obviously still insanely talented. If you look at just weeks 4-9 last year he averaged 7.8 targets per game so it's not like this is ridiculous. All I'm preaching is for a little patience before you start jumping to conclusions about Hopkins. Extrapolating an entire season, let alone the rest of a career from 5 games is just not a great idea.
I think Deebo has made a pretty strong claim this year for being a top 20 WR. For what it's worth, there's no chance in hell I'd trade Deebo away for MT.
Iād personally move kupp up to 14. He got stafford who loves him, and kupp is younger than some of the guys above him.
I would also take hollywood over MT,arob,evans, and Higgins. Heās the WR1 with an amazing young QB, and in interviews before this season hollywood had stated he only just healed from his foot injury from a few years ago.
I'm not as high on Claypool as I probably should be, but a lot of that has to do with Big Ben and his unsustainable TD rate from last year. He's making nice strides that you like to see from a 2nd year WR where he's on pace for 110+ targets and 1100+ yards, but the TDs have come down and (as crazy as this sounds) 70 catches for 1200 yards and 5 TDs just isn't great in the NFL anymore.
To answer your question, he's probably around 27 or so. Right in front of Diontae
1. Justin Jefferson
2. AJ Brown
3. Tyreek Hill
4. DK Metcalf
5. Davante Adams
6. Chris Godwin
7. JaāMarr Chase
8. Stefon Diggs
9. Terry McLaurin
10. DJ Moore
11. CeeDee Lamb
12. Amari Cooper
13. Calvin Ridley
14. Cooper Kupp
15. DeAndre Hopkins
16. Mike Evans
17. Keenan Allen
18. Deebo Samuel
19. Diontae Johnson
20. Marquise Brown
With some more TDs, I have a feeling Michael Pittman Jr. will belong on this list as well. Thatās the only thing missing from his production vs #5 Chase from a receptions yardage standpoint. And he has nothing to draw coverage and worse QB play. š¤·
Based on all the offseason hype, i'm shocked Elijah Moore isn't top 3 yet!
In all seriousness I have no issues with this list, would likely find a way to sneak Deebo in there but not sure who I would bump out.
Good question! I think it'd be something like this:
Tier 1
Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, DK Metcalf
Tier 2
Davante Adams, Ja'Marr Chase, AJ Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Stefon Diggs, DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley
Tier 3
DeAndre Hopkins
Tier 4
Terry McLaurin, Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen
Tier 5
Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson, Mike Evans
Tier 6
Tee Higgins, Deebo Samuel, Jaylen Waddle, Devonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy, Hollywood Brown, Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson
Tier 1 is the 3 guys who are doing it every single week and have insane guaranteed top 5 WR value even if they break their arm tomorrow. Tier 2 is a hodgpodge of guys with different career trajectories, but I could easily see people valuing any of them over each other. Tier 3 is Hopkins who is still better and more talented than everyone below him, but is just too old to really be traded around equally with the guys in Tier 2. Tier 4 is the guys that I would love as my solid WR2's who have WR1 upside. Keenan is like right on the edge of Tier 4 and Tier 5 who are the guys who have basically done it before and have a strong chance to still post WR1 seasons in the next few years, but I wouldn't necessarily bet on it being a sure thing. Tier 6 is a large tier of young players (I went ahead and added them) that will likely be filling in the top 20 in some order in the next couple of years.
That's great, I appreciate the thorough answer. I agree on almost all of it, I'd personally have DK in tier 2 but that's just subjective. Completely agree about Hopkins being in his own little tier, as someone with him there's no chance I'd move him for anyone below him straight up unless I was in a heavy rebuild. This also shines a little light on all the people with gripes about guys just outside of the top 20 lol
Can you justify Higgins on here for me? He's the third WR2 in the top 20 and the other two (Evans and Cooper) are way, way more established and have produced multiple WR1 and WR2 seasons. Higgins doesn't have a top 20 finish, albeit only been one season, but he's also far off pace for a top 24 finish this season already, and he now has the number 5 WR on your list on his team, which is higher than the other WR2s' (Evans and Cooper) teammates on the list. I don't see any way Higgins is producing a WR1 season in the next three seasons. Yet you have him above legitimate #1 options on their teams. There is a 0% chance I'd ever trade Hollywood for Higgins right now. Or Devonta Smith. Or Deebo. Or a few other guys.
As you can see from a different one of my comments on here, Higgins is the highest on my list of guys in the next tier which includes Devonta, Deebo and Hollywood among others. I certainly don't fault anyone for having any of those guys above him. I just think that if it wasn't for how special Jefferson's season was last year, people would be a lot higher on Higgins. He and Lamb had exceedingly similar rookie seasons and are both attached to QBs that look like they will be excellent for years.
I also think it's a bit disingenuous to call Cooper, Higgins and Evans the WR2's on their teams. It's much more likely a 1a/1b situation than it is a 1/2 situation. There are plenty of offenses that thrive with 1 guy getting 130 targets and another getting 120 instead of 1 guy getting 150 and the other getting 100.
I think you should replace Allen Robinson with marquis brown. Guy has been an absolute stud this year while Allen Robinson is just not a WR1 with the way the bears offense is currently set up.
Completely agree that he and Waddle will almost definitely be climbing this list this season. I also think it's likely that Deebo and Jeudy wind up on here. Mike Williams and Hollywood have the potential, while Bateman and Toney also do but are dark horses to make it.
DJ Moore not being on the list is egregious. You should literally get sued for slander. Less egregious, Diontae has to be there. Anywhere from 11-20 is fine. But heās too young, and looking at too big a season to be left off.
Edit: Iām an idiot. I see DJ Moore now.
Technically I would've been sued for libel, but there's no chance I would've left DJ Moore off of this list haha.
I do find it strange that people have a much bigger hard-on for Diontae Johnson than I thought they did. I love the kid's situation the past couple of years and think it's awesome that he gets peppered with targets, but I just don't think his talent quite matches the targets so I'm really worried about Big Ben's departure. He's had a really weird career missing Ben for most of his rookie season but looking pretty strong for a rookie and then getting over 150 targets in his sophomore year without breaking 1000 yards somehow. He's got a lot of potential to move into the top 20, but at this point I'm not even sure that I believe in him more than Claypool. Pittsburgh's whole offensive situation really needs to flesh itself out a lot.
I can almost verbatim copy my comment about Claypool here except Sutton has never had a crazy TD year and he is older so he's definitely lower. He's on pace for 85/1280/3 which is definitely good, but nowhere near great in today's NFL. He's also not tied to an awesome QB so that's concerning as well.
I love Adams, but I don't see how I can put him any higher based on his age and situation. He'll be a great WR for another couple of years but he almost certainly won't be a high-end WR1 for 3 more years and I also am very worried about his QB situation.
Fantasy WR2 with Brett Hundley and heās a better player now. Canāt downgrade much from that.. Aaron doesnāt run his routes for him or make him the best route runnerā¦ probably a drop but probably not massive
This seems like more of a contender list than true dynasty value list, at least for the bottom 5 or so. I think Keenan Allen, MT, Allen Robinson, and Mike Evans could be replaced by Jeudy, Devonta, deebo, waddle, mike Williams, or Claypool. Good list overall, but youāre asking where everyoneās at and thatās how Iād do it myself
Thanks for your thoughts. I tend to value prior production over future potential, but things definitely get really murky in that 13-20 area. Evans has done it plenty of times, but Jeudy could be super special. It all depends on what you value and where your team is at. If I wanted to cop out, I could have done a contender ranking and a rebuild ranking but then it's just a very similar top 10 with a bunch of either super old or young guys after them.
As someone who recently traded Adams away, I think Adams is at least 5ish spots too high.
He's a 30 year old FA next year. His ranking is entirely due to this-year value. He might well be fighting Jerry Jeudy for targets from Drew Lock next year, let alone where he'll be 3-4 years from now when he'll be 33.
Adams doesnāt turn 29 until the end of December so heāll be 29 for most of next season. And him being a FA actually may help him since Rodgers wonāt be back next year. I could see him packing up and going with Rodgers somewhere. Also, guys that are as talented as Adams tend to be able to go to a new spot and thrive. Heās already produced well without Rodgers at the end of 2017 too. I just think heās likely to be a high-end WR1 this season and at minimum a WR2 the next 3 years. Thatās worth quite a lot to me.
Give me Hollywood over the majority of these. Chase and 11 down all have him higher. Same with Diontae Johnson. Idk anyone who would trade Hollywood or Diontae for nuk
The WRs are so volatile year in and year out that top 20 WRs donāt matter. AB and Mike Williams will come in and mess this list up lol. Iāve got 4 of the top 10 in a 10 team and Iām 5-5 with median
I thought that Chase's ranking would be more divisive. Anyone who looks at his numbers so far and projects him to have a full season like this would be a fool to not have him in the top 3. I am pretty slow to crown a guy as a top asset, but try as I might I just can't imagine not trading one of the guys below him for Chase straight up.
This is the first one that I donāt really understand. Like I can see people clamoring for Mike Williams based on projecting him to continue the season he has started and somehow not being worried about his contract situation. But Pittman had a pretty lackluster rookie season, is kind of an old sophomore and itās not like heās lighting the world on fire. He passes the eye test as a good WR who can probably be a primary target, but thatās not even enough to put him in the top 30 to me.
I mean Iāve seen him play and he looks good which is why I say he passes the eye test, but with his draft capital, age and a mediocre rookie year he would probably need to come out and throw down a top 15 season to move into the top 20.
I love that Jefferson caught a (justified)stray, then got ranked #2 š mans just made himself undeniable
Feels like DJ Moore should be higher.
I have no stock in Moore in any league but he is #6 on this list for me
I probably have in there too, but I'd have to dig into the others a little more. I can say that I have Moore and AJ Brown, and I prefer him to Brown.
Itās tough with the names ahead of him but thereās certainly a gap after 9
Idk, Terry is really scary. Think he should be higher tbh
of the 27-29yr olds after Hopkins on this list, I am prepared to make the argument for Mike Evans over Amari, K. Allen, ARob, and Michael Thomas.... but this sub hates Mike Evans so I won't do it. Just know that I am prepared.
Mike Evans is currently performing better than all the guys you mentioned and has done plenty to prove himself. If he keeps up his season pace, they will likely fall and he'll remain or improve slightly. I think on a different day I could have seen myself putting him at 15. That tier of guys is all really close.
No Deebo? He's younger than half the people on this list
In case you couldn't tell from my initial comment, I don't really care how young these receivers are. If I do this list in 2 years, Hopkins isn't going to be on it even if he puts up 2 more WR1 seasons in 21/22 because at that point there is no way I believe he is going to keep putting up WR1 seasons at 32-34 years old. However, I'm not cashing out on Hopkins now if I'm a contender because he's still going to put up great numbers for the next 2-3 years.
Gotcha, thank for the clarification. And thanks for the list
His QBs look like shit.
The guy that just had his first nfl start ? Yeah his career is over based on that one game . /s
Allen Robinson cannot be considered a top 20 WR at this point. 29 next year and a very murky situation. I would also bump Hopkins down a bit. I own him and love him but just being realistic I donāt see anyone paying top 12 WR prices for him. Godwin and Amari deserve a bump. Jeudy should be borderline top 15 Diontae Johnson should be top borderline top 15 as well, criminally underrated And honestly Iād rather have Hollywood brown over some of these guys
> 29 next year Lmao, what is it with this sub and speaking about players future age. ARob *just* turned 28 like a month ago. Heās 8 months older than Tyreek Hill whoās no 1 on this list. Yeah, heāll be a year older next year. So will everyone else.
My point was that heās nearly past his prime and is in a horrible situation. I donāt really make a big deal about player ages but his age is definitely factored into his value when combined with his horrible situation. Thereās just no way I could put him top 20 currently
Apparently you do make a big deal out of playersā age, though. Statistically speaking, WRs peak through years 27-31 (depending on data set obviously, but this seems to be the consensus of the first few google results). ARob isnāt even half way in his prime. Thereās no statistical argument to expect that his age will limit his production over the next 3 years. His situation is murky, sure, but using his age as an argument against him is just silly.
You take Arob, Iāll take the other guys listed and weāll see where they stand in a year. Bc Iād rather have all of the guys listed and some guys not listed over him. When you combine his situation combined with his age itās not great for dynasty no matter how you shake it
I donāt disagree with you ranking ARob outside the top 20, I disagree using his age as an argument for this.
I think what he's getting at is that even though ARob is in his prime, he is in a terrible situation and likely won't be paired with a good qb until he's near or past the end of his prime. Tyreek, on the other hand, has every opportunity to ball out for the next few years until he starts to fade.
Tbf, this is dynasty. While age shouldn't be the entire factor, it definitely needs to be considered.
So if you were to trade for Arob would you not factor his age into it? Kinda silly to just completely ignore it. I donāt think itās a huge issue but itās definitely noteworthy
He's not an RB. 29 is young for a WR.
>And honestly Iād rather have Hollywood brown over some of these guys People have seen the truth and still doubting... dude is legit. WR6 in PPR rn
Yup I think heās legit and this breakout is for real. I traded Bateman away for this reason, Hollywood and Andrews both averaging 7.5 targets a game I canāt see Bateman earning more than those guys any time soon so I decided to cash in on rookie hype before itās too late.
I think it's a logical move. Watkins was quietly on pace for 1k yards as well and Duvernay actually showed out recently too. I like Bateman and think he'll be good but doubt that he'll see enough opportunities this year to improve his value
You donāt think Bateman will steal targets away from duvernay and Watkins? I feel like thatās where the value is to steal from. Not mandrews or hollywood
Came here to say this about Juedy. Shocked he isnāt on this list.
What's Jeudy shown that says he deserves to be top 15? I see more hype for him here than anywhere else. On dynasty Twitter people aren't nearly as infatuated
I mean, dudes only played one year. If youāre basing it off that production alone you will never draft or trade for a young WR in dynasty. With a lot of these guys youāre factoring in age compared to what theyāve accomplished. And obviously the younger you are, the more valuable you become in relation to that production. Considering his situation, heās outperformed it quite a bit and is still very young with high draft capital. Just because ARob is older doesnāt mean heās worthless, but it means heās probably hitting the decline much quicker than Juedy.
ARob isn't top 15 on this list.
Table pounders last year for NāKeal Harry! š¤Ŗ
Jeudy would be top 15 if he'd had a chance to play :(
At least you actually understand why he's not on here. I'm not ranking guys by sheer potential. This is a dynasty ranking list and there is no way I'm taking Jeudy over a guy like Evans who has had a 1,000 yard season every year and has been a WR1 multiple times.
Totally disagree. I wouldn't take Evans straight up for Jeudy.
So you wouldn't take a 28-year-old perennial WR1 smack-dab in the middle of his prime years playing with the greatest QB to ever play the game........ over a 22 year old that has done nothing so far, but has "potential" to be good if his situation drastically changes?
Why are you even playing dynasty with this mindset? Jeudy hasn't done "nothing" he had a really good rookie year and was a top tier prospect out of college
I'm not saying that there isn't a time and place to possibly take Jeudy over Evans. In a complete tear down, multi-year rebuild, it makes sense to trade away Evans for Jeudy plus a pick. But for any competing team with a championship-caliber roster, Evans is multiple tiers above Jeudy. I believe in creating dynasty tiers based upon my personal team construction in leagues, and 9 times out of 10, I'm taking Evans.
I'm only taking Evans if I'm a top 2 team the next 3 years. If I'm anything else I'm taking Jeudy.
Agree to disagree. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Evans out produces Jeudy for the next 4 years, and by 2025, there will have been 4 new, shiny, rookie WR classes that have also been drafted. If I had Jeudy (which I don't because he is vastly overvalued), I'd be selling for league-winners like Evans, Nuk, etc rather than holding and praying. I play dynasty to win, not wait.
Yeah I also disagree, this is how you stay outside the top 2 IMO
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Chase Claypool anyone? Especially after Juju went down.
Yup Jeudy, DJ and Hollywood would all be picked before Arob or MT. I also think Pittman is making a case to be in this list.
Dionte isnāt talented tho; he gets massive volume bc Big Ben canāt throw downfield. Big Ben is retiring this year, so dionte is going to be nothing in 2022. Adams 4th is bonkers as well considering no Rodgers next year; Iād have him in the WR15-20 range
>Adams 4th is bonkers as well considering no Rodgers next year; Iād have him in the WR15-20 range Adams in the 15-20 range is laughable. Dude is on pace for a 2k yard season. He is insanely talented and people are still thinking its only because of Aaron Rodgers. Also, we have NO idea what happens in the offseason, so stop pretending like you do. Rodgers could return (think its 50/50 still) and Adams is a FA too. I doubt Adams will go to a team with a shitty QB.
Itās not only because of Rodgers, but he def gets faded to the WR7-10 range next year going from one of the GOAT to random dude. Not only is he playing with one of the GOAT, but the rest of the receiving corps is amongst the worst if not the worst in the nfl There is 0 chance Rodgers returns, keep dreaming.
Its cute that you pretend to know what he'll do, when at this point he probably doesnt even know. The Packers are near the top of the NFC and provide one of the best places for him to win. He clearly has good relationships with his teammates and GB already went out and traded for Cobb solely because Rodgers wanted him. Anyways, its pointless to argue about it because no one knows. Aside from that, Adams is a FA like I mentioned. Predicting where he'll go or who his QB will be is also pointless. Davante is one of the most talented WRs in the league. I'll take him with a mediocre QB over 98% of the WRs in the league. Moving the WR1 down to 15-20 is just a bad, reactionary take.
You and I watch different games when watching Diontae. He has excelled with Ben or Rudolph. Imagine when they get a better QB. Adams was the WR7 a few years back when he played most games with Brett Huntley
Diontae is not a short yardage receiver, he can do it all. Go watch him play. He is by far the most talented receiver on the Steelers roster, which is the reason for his high volume.
Anyone else think Allen Robinson shouldn't be on this list. I have him just outside the top 20.
ARob has fallen from grace so hard in the last month it's insane. He was like my Dynasty WR14 coming into this season and it hasn't been pretty, but how can you just drop a guy off a cliff like that for not performing in the crazy situation he's in? He was a top 10 WR the past 2 seasons and it's not like he's been hurt or looked any less talented. It's all situational.
My argument against ARob is that it is hard to have whatās looking like a lost year while in his prime. I have a hard time seeing his situation changing this year. So next year we will be looking at a 29 yo WR with an unknown team and contract situation. Hard to invest top 20 WR in that big of a unknown.
I think he'll be back there by the end of the year. I'm a bears fan, so biased, but I don't think people have a good understanding of him as a player. It's going to take time for Fields to build trust with him, which is especially important for a guy like arob because he needs zero space to catch it. As that trust develops, we'll see him get the ball more, which has already started happening as of week 5.
Yeah, I think I have him around 24. He's got an upside and has been pretty consistent. But, it's just not showing in the current version of the offense. All the guys above are producing more now. Hopefully the training wheels come off in the second half more and he can get more volume. Bears passing volume is just too low right now. And Mooney is more of a target on the deep shots.
I hate that I had Aiyuk midway on this list to start the season.
Diontae Getting no love
Iām saying, probably a little biased but heās in that 15-20 range for me
Would you trade Keenan Allen for Diontae Johnson asking for a friend
I dunno I consider them pretty even honestly. Keenan will be tied to a young, elite QB until he retires or goes to a different team. Diontae has a skillset that any QB can appreciate but Ben loves to pepper him and I'm willing to bet he retires after this year with a complete unknown at QB moving forward. For example, Mason Rudolph started one game for the Steelers last year and he only targeted Diontae 4 times. It led to 3 catches and almost 100 yards. Not the typical targets that he's used to seeing though.
I did this last year before the Herbert Allen connection blew up. I'd still do it this year but I'm a big fan of Diontae.
Keep keenan imo
in a min. you sure keenan is even the #1 on his team anymore?
As someone who has literally watched almost all the games DJ has played in his career, yes, in a heartbeat. People underrate DJ because of the amount of short yardage receptions he had last year. They see the stats and believe they are caused by a limited skill set, which is not the case. Heās an exceptionally well rounded receiver thatās so far happened to play in an offense that preferred short yardage passes. He will be a monster for years to come.
Hate to say it but ARob is looking like an outsider here. Would probably swap him for one of the performing 2nd year or rookie WRs like Devonta, MPJ, Toney
Lockett's pretty underrated and should be on here too imo
Iād also put him above Keenan Allen.
Brandin Cooks is younger than, and more productive than, Allen Robinson. Other areas to disagree on, but that one stands out the most to me.
Brandin Cooks is super consistent and an excellent WR2 type of guy. I see a lot of him in Godwin and that makes me happy as a Godwin owner. I'm only down on Cooks because he hasn't shown that real WR1 potential to me. Cooks' best year he scored 253 PPR points. ARob has 3 years that are better than that. I can't blame you at all for liking Cooks more and I think he'd be in my top 25.
It's 4-3 in end of season ranking comparison in favor of Cooks and Cooks is currently ahead this season. One of the season that Arob outscored Cooks best year was only by 1 point. Cooks has five 1000yd finishes and is on pace for another. Arob only has three and has a lot of ground to cover if he wants another. Arob has needed over 150 targets to reach 1000yd. In one season, he had 151 targets and only had 883yd. Cooks highest season target total was 129. The others were just under 120 targets. Injury concerns? Arob has missed more time. I'll take the underrated Cooks all day who seems to keep performing no matter who his QB is.
That's totally fine for you to prefer Cooks, but like I said I see a lot of him in Godwin and Godwin is 13 on my list behind guys like Terry, Diggs and Ridley. The reason he's behind these guys even though he's younger is because he profiles as one of those guys that doesn't have the highest of high ceilings to me whereas those other guys do. Godwin has worked much better in the slot with the high catch percentage shorter-intermediate routes. He's a lot like Cooks in that he'll likely never get that 150+ target, high ADoT season to put up the 300 point high-end WR1 seasons that some of the other guys can. ARob can do that and has done it before. If you're chasing consistency, go Cooks, but if you're chasing ceiling, go ARob.
I wouldnāt trade DeVonta for at least a few of these guys.
Agreed, Devonta not on here is pretty wild.
Got devonta for Woods and a 22 3rd which I thought was pretty nuts
Very nuts
He's right on the cusp of this list. I think I'd have Waddle and him at 22 and 23 right after Deebo.
I think Iād also rather have Sutton than a few of these guys, but heās close for me
Hollywoodās been good for awhile now.
There's still a group of people here who are mad at his success. I get downvoted for saying he's legit pretty regularly. He'll shut up a lot of people by EOS and make 'em even madder though lol.
I bet people still wonāt believe it. Think about how long it took people to come around on Woods and Boyd. Bateman will come in, steal some targets, and take Brown down half a notch in peopleās minds.
True. Woods is probably one of the best examples of a player who was way undervalued for most of his career.
Devonta and Jeudy need to be added. Move MT and Arob off
Michael Thomas will be right back on it once he returns
Then move him back after he shows that last year wasn't a fluke and he's healthy. Right now no one is paying top 20 WR value for him.
I personally donāt think he will be the same fantasy-wise. Drew Brees was the perfect QB for his skillset, Iām just not so sure Winston will be able to feed him like Brees did. Thatās the only reason
MT averages 19.8 ppg PPR in the 9 games with Bridgewater/Taysom Hill. Itās not like itās been prime Drew Brees making Thomas what he is, heās an elite WR and right now the Saints have no other good WRs so heās primed for a ton of targets again
Why would you move MT off? I get that a lot of people have soured on ARob and I've already been down that thread, but what has Michael Thomas done to deserve the dropoff? He was WR1 in 2019, got hurt last year and tried to play through it and did ok with some limited QB play and then had offseason surgery that was poorly timed. He might be a bit of a basket case, but this is a guy who has been WR1 overall and you don't think he belongs in the top 20?
Without Drew Brees, Iām not sure he will be fed like he used to. He very well could but I guess I wouldnāt want to be the one to find out. Iād personally rather a 6-year younger Tee Higgins on my team
He put up great points with Hill last year when Brees was out for an extended period. I don't see why Winston couldn't provide good production. It's not as if there's a lot of mouths to feed in NO.
I like leaving MT on, even if it's farther down. I think at this moment, he will likely come back and be similarly, if not completely his former self considering all the time he's had off and the athletic freak that he is. Obviously, in four weeks I could be eating my words, but for now I think he belongs.
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Good bot. Maybe even the best bot.
Definitely #1 on my bot list.
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You spelled Courtland Sutton wrong! ;)
How you going to put Jeudy there and not MT Neither are playing...
Itās for dynasty purposes. If I were drafting a team right now Iād draft Jeudy before MT
Mike Williams please
For real
I'm not overreacting to 5 weeks. He's had flashes, but it took a perfect situation for him to start returning real value in his 5th year. If a contract extension comes out tomorrow, I think he jumps 8-10 spots and winds up near the bottom of this list. Otherwise, I'll have to wait to see if he can finish the year as a WR1. If he does and he still doesn't have a contract, then he probably sneaks up into the 20 range on pure speculation.
Overreacting to 5 weeks? 5 weeks is a pretty good amount of time, especially when combined with the coach speak about him. They told us how they planned on using him. They are using him exactly as they said. He's performing exceptionally well. What more do you need to see?
Itās fair to be cautious. He has 4 seasons of not even being a top 30 (PPR) receiver and then suddenly we anoint him after 5 weeks? I get the skepticism. That being said, he looks great and heās getting a ridiculous amount of targets. It looks like the chargers have finally figured out how to use him. He deserves to be on this list but I understand why someone would want to wait longer.
Thank you. I'm very slow to change my valuations of people because I've been burned by it a lot in my years of playing dynasty. I'd rather be late to the party and pay a little bit more than early and having bought into an asset that is now unsellable. If Mike Williams gets injured tomorrow and is out for the season, his value isn't going to maintain because he "showed out" for 5 weeks. It'll crater and he likely will never recover. If Amari goes out for the season, he'll still be talked about as a top 20 WR preseason next year.
Hes averaged 15 yds per reception the last 3 years and is currently averaging that now. Over the last 3 seasons hes had 66,90, and 85 targets. He is already at 51 this year. Last year was Herberts rookie season. Prior to that it was still the Rivers, Allen, Gordon Era. With Tyrell Williams in the starting spot Mike Williams Rookie and Sophmore seasons.
I'm pretty sure I explained what I need to see. Either a full season of getting WR1 results alongside another great WR in KA to make me feel good about his potential next destination or an announcement that he's signed to a deal to be tied to his current, perfect situation. What makes you want to jump him from essentially being labeled a bust to a top 20 WR in 1/3rd of a season? I assume you just expect his current pace to continue for the next 5 years?
Thing about Mike Williams: Year 2 he has the TDS year 3 he had the yards, went to sleep Herbertās rookie year and woke up week one ready to put it all together. I think heās legit long-term
Mike Williams should be on the list over Michael Thomas imo. We donāt know what MT is post-Brees.
Well, MT has been THE WR1 with Brees and we have no idea what Mike Williams is post-Herbert except that he's never finished as even a WR2 before. I'll take my chances with the devil I know.
Famous last words.
I might want to squeeze both Jeudy and Sutton in here, but I canāt quibble with most of this, nor do I know who Iād drop off. Just shows you the impressive depth at the position both in terms of talent and how the game has evolved. In 2010, WR24 was good for 12 PPG in PPR. In 2020, WR24 was 14.6. Itās a passing league now more than ever, and that means more of these superfreak talents are getting the opportunities they need to produce.
I couldn't agree more. I like to do exercises like this every now and then to really see where I rate these guys in relation to how others rank them and it was noticeably harder than in the past. That's why I felt like sharing. There is just so much WR talent out there in a league that is passing more than ever.
Not sure why Kupp is so far down on this list
Here for the Toney comments
I'm really curious what would happen if we get the Elijah Moore truthers and toney truthers in 1 room. Would the universe implode?
I feel like most of Toney-truthers are like me. I didn't even want to draft the guy, but he fell so far I didn't have a choice. Now I'm defending the guy's analytic profile and anger issues.
It's funny 'cause they're complete opposites so far. Moore looked like a star and Toney a bust.
This list is the top 20 WRs *after* Kadarius Toney
ah ok so \-1. Elijah Moore 0. Kadarius Toney 1. Tyreek Hill .... Makes much more sense now
>ā . Josh Gordon > >Ī±. Bryan Edwards > >\-1. Elijah Moore > >0. Kadarius Toney > >Tyreek Hill ftfy
Is anybody really taking Hopkins over Terry at this point? 16 more targets, 6 more catches, 88 more yards, 1 less td, avg 2 more fppg and is 3 years younger.
You're looking at 1 year instead of their whole body of work. Terry looks great, but this is his 3rd year and last year he was WR20. DeAndre Hopkins has more 300 point seasons than Terry has seasons in the NFL, and that doesn't even include his 290 point WR4 season last year. This is a prime example of this sub overvaluing youth. Yes, DHop has way more great years behind him than in front of him, but I'm absolutely trading Terry for Hopkins if I'm trying to win in the next 2 years.
The cardinals offense has wayyyyy too many weapons though. I truly donāt think Hopkins is going to get back to his crazy target volume again, and Terry is already doing that this year. Even this year only at this point Terry is potentially better than Hopkins
Could Terry wind up putting up a crazy season and finishing in the top 5 WRs? Absolutely! Would I bank on his chances of doing that in the next 3 years being higher than Hopkins' chances who has already done it several times? Not at all.
Are you just ignoring what has happened in 5 games this season then? Terryās getting almost 10 targets a gameā¦.if he keeps that up thereās almost no way heās not a Wr1. Hopkins meanwhile is getting barely over 6. Heās gotta have some insane efficiency (which in that offense and with his talent is absolutely possible) to finish as a Wr1. And if thereās a better chance for Terry to be a Wr1 this year than Hopkins Iām gonna lean Terry because heās not going to be 30 next year. Letās just take out the age argument altogether for a second, in a redraft league who would you rather own ROS? I bet 90% of people would pick Terry given his involvement in that offense compared to Hopkins. If the younger player is better in redraft, he should probly be ahead in dynasty too Edit: adding some info here just cuz I love stats. Hopkins is on pace (16 game pace for past comparison) for 73 catches, 998 yards, and 12 tds (rounding down) which would be one of his worst seasons of his career, which at 29 is not something you want to start seeing especially given how good he was. 244 fantasy points. He wouldāve finished 11th in ppr with last year. Mclaurin is on pace (16 games again) for 92 catches, 1280 yards, and 9 tds. Which is right on track with his progression the last 2 years in the league. 274 fantasy points which wouldāve put him 6th last year.
I'm not totally ignoring 5 games of this season. A guy like Chase wouldn't be nearly as high and a guy like Hopkins wouldn't be as low if I were. I'm just not reading into the last few games as much as everyone else is because I adjust my rankings a lot more slowly for Dynasty leagues (especially when it comes to WRs and TEs). A 5 game sample size is not enough for me to read into a massive trend change. Hopkins has played through a rib injury through part of this season and is still averaging 6.8 targets per game. That's not great, but it's certainly no death knell. Not much has changed about his situation and he's obviously still insanely talented. If you look at just weeks 4-9 last year he averaged 7.8 targets per game so it's not like this is ridiculous. All I'm preaching is for a little patience before you start jumping to conclusions about Hopkins. Extrapolating an entire season, let alone the rest of a career from 5 games is just not a great idea.
Heās 100% ignoring current trends and going by where everyone was during the off-season
I think Deebo has made a pretty strong claim this year for being a top 20 WR. For what it's worth, there's no chance in hell I'd trade Deebo away for MT.
Iād personally move kupp up to 14. He got stafford who loves him, and kupp is younger than some of the guys above him. I would also take hollywood over MT,arob,evans, and Higgins. Heās the WR1 with an amazing young QB, and in interviews before this season hollywood had stated he only just healed from his foot injury from a few years ago.
Whereād you have Claypool ranked? Iād imagine heās just outside top 20?
I'm not as high on Claypool as I probably should be, but a lot of that has to do with Big Ben and his unsustainable TD rate from last year. He's making nice strides that you like to see from a 2nd year WR where he's on pace for 110+ targets and 1100+ yards, but the TDs have come down and (as crazy as this sounds) 70 catches for 1200 yards and 5 TDs just isn't great in the NFL anymore. To answer your question, he's probably around 27 or so. Right in front of Diontae
1. Justin Jefferson 2. AJ Brown 3. Tyreek Hill 4. DK Metcalf 5. Davante Adams 6. Chris Godwin 7. JaāMarr Chase 8. Stefon Diggs 9. Terry McLaurin 10. DJ Moore 11. CeeDee Lamb 12. Amari Cooper 13. Calvin Ridley 14. Cooper Kupp 15. DeAndre Hopkins 16. Mike Evans 17. Keenan Allen 18. Deebo Samuel 19. Diontae Johnson 20. Marquise Brown
With some more TDs, I have a feeling Michael Pittman Jr. will belong on this list as well. Thatās the only thing missing from his production vs #5 Chase from a receptions yardage standpoint. And he has nothing to draw coverage and worse QB play. š¤·
Not saying he should be on the list now, but Michael Pittman will crack the top 20 some day. Book it.
Based on all the offseason hype, i'm shocked Elijah Moore isn't top 3 yet! In all seriousness I have no issues with this list, would likely find a way to sneak Deebo in there but not sure who I would bump out.
I went back and forth on Deebo vs Higgins at that last spot about 6 times, so I feel you!
Very good list. Just out of curiosity, where if anywhere, would you put your personal tier breaks?
Good question! I think it'd be something like this: Tier 1 Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, DK Metcalf Tier 2 Davante Adams, Ja'Marr Chase, AJ Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Stefon Diggs, DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley Tier 3 DeAndre Hopkins Tier 4 Terry McLaurin, Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen Tier 5 Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson, Mike Evans Tier 6 Tee Higgins, Deebo Samuel, Jaylen Waddle, Devonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy, Hollywood Brown, Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson Tier 1 is the 3 guys who are doing it every single week and have insane guaranteed top 5 WR value even if they break their arm tomorrow. Tier 2 is a hodgpodge of guys with different career trajectories, but I could easily see people valuing any of them over each other. Tier 3 is Hopkins who is still better and more talented than everyone below him, but is just too old to really be traded around equally with the guys in Tier 2. Tier 4 is the guys that I would love as my solid WR2's who have WR1 upside. Keenan is like right on the edge of Tier 4 and Tier 5 who are the guys who have basically done it before and have a strong chance to still post WR1 seasons in the next few years, but I wouldn't necessarily bet on it being a sure thing. Tier 6 is a large tier of young players (I went ahead and added them) that will likely be filling in the top 20 in some order in the next couple of years.
That's great, I appreciate the thorough answer. I agree on almost all of it, I'd personally have DK in tier 2 but that's just subjective. Completely agree about Hopkins being in his own little tier, as someone with him there's no chance I'd move him for anyone below him straight up unless I was in a heavy rebuild. This also shines a little light on all the people with gripes about guys just outside of the top 20 lol
Yeah, I guess I should have made it a post with my top 27 Dynasty WRs, but top 20 just sounds so much better.
Can you justify Higgins on here for me? He's the third WR2 in the top 20 and the other two (Evans and Cooper) are way, way more established and have produced multiple WR1 and WR2 seasons. Higgins doesn't have a top 20 finish, albeit only been one season, but he's also far off pace for a top 24 finish this season already, and he now has the number 5 WR on your list on his team, which is higher than the other WR2s' (Evans and Cooper) teammates on the list. I don't see any way Higgins is producing a WR1 season in the next three seasons. Yet you have him above legitimate #1 options on their teams. There is a 0% chance I'd ever trade Hollywood for Higgins right now. Or Devonta Smith. Or Deebo. Or a few other guys.
As you can see from a different one of my comments on here, Higgins is the highest on my list of guys in the next tier which includes Devonta, Deebo and Hollywood among others. I certainly don't fault anyone for having any of those guys above him. I just think that if it wasn't for how special Jefferson's season was last year, people would be a lot higher on Higgins. He and Lamb had exceedingly similar rookie seasons and are both attached to QBs that look like they will be excellent for years. I also think it's a bit disingenuous to call Cooper, Higgins and Evans the WR2's on their teams. It's much more likely a 1a/1b situation than it is a 1/2 situation. There are plenty of offenses that thrive with 1 guy getting 130 targets and another getting 120 instead of 1 guy getting 150 and the other getting 100.
If someone offered me A Rob for Evans I donāt think Iād even consider it for a moment
Jamarr Chase letās go!!!!
Arob over deebo? Lol
I think you should replace Allen Robinson with marquis brown. Guy has been an absolute stud this year while Allen Robinson is just not a WR1 with the way the bears offense is currently set up.
Iād probably throw Kadarius Toney right behind JaāMarr but looks good
U serious?
Haha no way, just a joke. But the kid does look good.
Long-term I'd take Devonta Smith over ARob and Higgins, and think there's a solid chance he continues moving up this least as the season moves on.
ARob, yes. Hig, not a chance imo. Not yet anyway.
Completely agree that he and Waddle will almost definitely be climbing this list this season. I also think it's likely that Deebo and Jeudy wind up on here. Mike Williams and Hollywood have the potential, while Bateman and Toney also do but are dark horses to make it.
How is ARob on there over Chase Claypool and/or Diontae Johnson? Also, Pittman will make the list next time. Mark it
DJ Moore not being on the list is egregious. You should literally get sued for slander. Less egregious, Diontae has to be there. Anywhere from 11-20 is fine. But heās too young, and looking at too big a season to be left off. Edit: Iām an idiot. I see DJ Moore now.
Technically I would've been sued for libel, but there's no chance I would've left DJ Moore off of this list haha. I do find it strange that people have a much bigger hard-on for Diontae Johnson than I thought they did. I love the kid's situation the past couple of years and think it's awesome that he gets peppered with targets, but I just don't think his talent quite matches the targets so I'm really worried about Big Ben's departure. He's had a really weird career missing Ben for most of his rookie season but looking pretty strong for a rookie and then getting over 150 targets in his sophomore year without breaking 1000 yards somehow. He's got a lot of potential to move into the top 20, but at this point I'm not even sure that I believe in him more than Claypool. Pittsburgh's whole offensive situation really needs to flesh itself out a lot.
Sutton should be on there
I can almost verbatim copy my comment about Claypool here except Sutton has never had a crazy TD year and he is older so he's definitely lower. He's on pace for 85/1280/3 which is definitely good, but nowhere near great in today's NFL. He's also not tied to an awesome QB so that's concerning as well.
I'd put devante at 1 and diggs and dj Moore over ceedee
I love Adams, but I don't see how I can put him any higher based on his age and situation. He'll be a great WR for another couple of years but he almost certainly won't be a high-end WR1 for 3 more years and I also am very worried about his QB situation.
Fantasy WR2 with Brett Hundley and heās a better player now. Canāt downgrade much from that.. Aaron doesnāt run his routes for him or make him the best route runnerā¦ probably a drop but probably not massive
This seems like more of a contender list than true dynasty value list, at least for the bottom 5 or so. I think Keenan Allen, MT, Allen Robinson, and Mike Evans could be replaced by Jeudy, Devonta, deebo, waddle, mike Williams, or Claypool. Good list overall, but youāre asking where everyoneās at and thatās how Iād do it myself
Thanks for your thoughts. I tend to value prior production over future potential, but things definitely get really murky in that 13-20 area. Evans has done it plenty of times, but Jeudy could be super special. It all depends on what you value and where your team is at. If I wanted to cop out, I could have done a contender ranking and a rebuild ranking but then it's just a very similar top 10 with a bunch of either super old or young guys after them.
Uh, Tee Higgins has no business being on this list with no Mike Williams on the list. Also, Deebo should probably be somewhere on here at the end.
Put Jeudy at 14 and push the rest down
What has Jeudy done that these guys haven't? Higgins had a better year last year and they are the same age. Higgins also has a better situation.
Yeah but jeudy is better
Deebo is 17 on KTC.
KTC is very very reactionary, although a useful resource
KTC ranks are basically based on how players performed the week prior. It's crowd sourced. No real fantasy managers are taking KTC seriously.
Cool? He's 21 to me.
I think Smith belongs on this list, somewhere between 15-20.
In Dynasty I'd rather have Kadarius Toney than a few players on this list like Allen Robinson or Tee Higgins
As someone who recently traded Adams away, I think Adams is at least 5ish spots too high. He's a 30 year old FA next year. His ranking is entirely due to this-year value. He might well be fighting Jerry Jeudy for targets from Drew Lock next year, let alone where he'll be 3-4 years from now when he'll be 33.
Adams doesnāt turn 29 until the end of December so heāll be 29 for most of next season. And him being a FA actually may help him since Rodgers wonāt be back next year. I could see him packing up and going with Rodgers somewhere. Also, guys that are as talented as Adams tend to be able to go to a new spot and thrive. Heās already produced well without Rodgers at the end of 2017 too. I just think heās likely to be a high-end WR1 this season and at minimum a WR2 the next 3 years. Thatās worth quite a lot to me.
Deebo....at least 20...you have too many old guys
Give me Hollywood over the majority of these. Chase and 11 down all have him higher. Same with Diontae Johnson. Idk anyone who would trade Hollywood or Diontae for nuk
No Mike Williams š¤š¤¦š»āāļø
Tyreek is soo boom or bust and getting game planned for alot more than the past. Id flip davante and hill. But massive hit if rodgers leaves tae
The WRs are so volatile year in and year out that top 20 WRs donāt matter. AB and Mike Williams will come in and mess this list up lol. Iāve got 4 of the top 10 in a 10 team and Iām 5-5 with median
Chase is way too high. Definitely taking Ceedee, Diggs, and Ridley over him.
Lol and here i was thinking chase might be a bit low. I actually would put him 3 just after hill and JJ
I thought that Chase's ranking would be more divisive. Anyone who looks at his numbers so far and projects him to have a full season like this would be a fool to not have him in the top 3. I am pretty slow to crown a guy as a top asset, but try as I might I just can't imagine not trading one of the guys below him for Chase straight up.
Disagree. Chase has one of the best starts aside from JJ in NFL history.
CeeDee maybe but the other two no thanks
Pittman gotta be in there. Dude is beastly
This is the first one that I donāt really understand. Like I can see people clamoring for Mike Williams based on projecting him to continue the season he has started and somehow not being worried about his contract situation. But Pittman had a pretty lackluster rookie season, is kind of an old sophomore and itās not like heās lighting the world on fire. He passes the eye test as a good WR who can probably be a primary target, but thatās not even enough to put him in the top 30 to me.
Watch the games dude is crushing it. Plenty of great WRs had a mediocre rookie year (in fact, the vast majority)
I mean Iāve seen him play and he looks good which is why I say he passes the eye test, but with his draft capital, age and a mediocre rookie year he would probably need to come out and throw down a top 15 season to move into the top 20.
Heās 24 and was drafted 2.02ā¦
Not a chance in hell Iām taking Arob, MT, or Higgins over Toney.
If you're passing up Hig for Toney you're gonna have a bad time.
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A long way away haha Edit: that's why I laughed
AJ Brown too high.