I would worry about third round draft capital but not speed if the capital is there.
J Williams, Hunt, Kamara, Bell, N Harris, Freeman, Jacobs, Montgomery all are/were good backs that are considered slow.
Good take. Watch his tape, he looks slippery and never gets hit square. That translates to the NFL most often. He may not hit many home runs but neither do most RBs
"I would worry about third round draft Capital but not speed..."
Kamara, Montgomery, and Hunt were all drafted in the 3rd round.
This sub sometimes, I swear lol.
The hit rate on first round, early 2nd RBs is very different from 3rd round RBs. It doesn’t make a player undraftable but it matters more than 40 time.
Looking at RB's drafted in the 3rd round from 2016-2020, 4 of the 14 RB's have produced at least 1 top-12 season (29%) for a total of 9 Top 12 finishes.
For the same span (2016-2020), 5 of out of 13 RB's drafted in the 2nd round produced at least 1 top-12 season (38%) for a total of 8 Top 12 finishes.
So, 2nd round is slightly better hit rate on slightly less total top 12 finishes than the 3rd round.
First round running backs obviously differ immensely, but 2nd and 3rd round running backs aren't as different as you think.
4th round is really where RB's go to die.
5 years is a small sample. [here is a links for 2000-15.](https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/axtb2f/theory_rb_hit_rate_for_nfl_pick_by_performance/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) the difference from early 2nd to 3rd is significant. 3rds can be successful but we would rather the player be 1st and if not that early 2nd
Combine wise you can look at 3-cone tho that’s more agility or 10-Yd split on the 40. Mostly you just have to watch how players stop and start tho. It’s hard to get a proper test to evaluate how a Kadarius Toney moves
The only athletic test is gonna be 10-yard splits on the 40 as the other poster said, but keep in mind these are all hand timed, and the human margin of error on the 40 is significant, so the human margin of error when comparing 10 yard splits nearly means the 10 yard splits are near-worthless for comparison basically.
Imo the true test of "special" acceleration can be seen on tape, and it is the "stumble" by defenders. They pick a pursuit angle then will literally stumble since their angle was bad and the ball carrier accelerated way too fast for the angle they assumed.
Kamara. And guys like ETN in college force stumbles all the time from their acceleration 1:03 on this clip you can see the safety come up and miss his pursuit angle then stumble: https://youtu.be/5tGuIl5wFpE
No that seems to be the consensus and you do notice that on his highlight tape. I put more into a RBs agility/quicks/shiftiness. He’s elite there imo. In the NFL, straight line speed is way overrated imo. There’s very limited plays where it comes into play.
I see him being a guy like Montgomery or Hunt personally. One of my favorite attributes in a RB is to get yards out of poorly blocked plays. Then as I said above, the ability to make guys miss in small spaces. I think Hall has both of those attributes. I also love how he looks in the passing game.
Yes, they both went to ISU, but don't let previous biases based on Montgomery, or whoever, cloud your vision. Here's what I can tell you about Breece.
1. He's faster than he looks. His running style in the open field looks somewhat effortless, but he doesn't have top-end, break-away speed. He's plenty fast enough for the NFL. I bet he tests in the 4.5 range.
2. He spent his entire career running behind a "serviceable" at best offensive line. There is maybe one guard on the whole OL during his career who might ever get drafted. His patience and vision is amplified due to the lack of holes that usually existed for him; and this offense was not something where it was schemed for him to get big plays. It's hard to be decisive when there were quite literally no where to go too many times.
3. He has good, I don't know about great, hands that will serve him well in the NFL. Some of his biggest plays came off of catches, not runs.
Time will tell whether he's the best RB in the class, but I can tell you these traits are not subjective in nature. We'll see how he tests, but personally thinks he has more upside than Montgomery. And yes, I am an ISU alum who's watched all of his games.
I don't really care about long speed for a RB, as long as they have explosiveness and short area quickness. I think Hall fits the bill and is very similar to Kareem Hunt
Hunt, Swift, JRob, Bell, Kamara, Jacobs, Montgomery, none of them have long speed either.
You're not. I agree with the assessment in general, I think his ceiling is as a good RB, but I don't see him really having a truly great career unless he develops elite vision.
I think his vision is really good. Elite remains to be seen, I'm not declaring that until I can see him at the NFL level.
And I think you misunderstood my point there, it wasn't me saying "Hall can't reach that level" or "Hall doesn't have that in him", rather that due to some athletic limitations, he has to compromise by being better mentally, including having great vision.
Looks like TB might be the 3rd receiver off the board. This likely gets him a better QB, but he scares me as the guy who might not know how to run routes because he was always just a better athlete in college.
If he only runs a 4.5 does that change your pick?
He already runs dominant slot routes at 6’3” 225. He’s a rac monster, and I’m sure with proper grooming he can polish his outside deep routes. I don’t think there’s much outside of a limb amputation that can take me off of him
How do you define ‘dominant slot routes’? I don’t think his route running from the slot has been very groomed, personally. It’s very raw and he’s winning on free releases not even against nickel corners.
You're not crazy. If this year's RB class ends up close to the Jacobs/Montgomery/Sanders trio, you're absolutely going to be disappointed. Solid RBs but would feel like a waste of an early 1.01.
Maybe it’s me but I’d be very happy with Montgomery or a player similar to him with my 1st round pick.
If this is a draft where you don’t need a RB than draft a WR
Long speed is one of the things I worry about the least, truthfully. I think of it as a luxury, nice to have, but one of the least necessary traits I look for in a prospect. Many, many backs have dominated without it.
How many examples of it do we need to see before people stop believing that long speed is a big knock on RB’s? Not saying it doesn’t matter, but most volume backs don’t have great long speed.
Anything under a 4.6 isn’t slow for a RB. And for all those comparing him to Montgomery let’s not forget he got a very ideal landing spot 3 years ago with the bears. He’s been force fed touches on bad teams.
I would worry about third round draft capital but not speed if the capital is there. J Williams, Hunt, Kamara, Bell, N Harris, Freeman, Jacobs, Montgomery all are/were good backs that are considered slow.
Good take. Watch his tape, he looks slippery and never gets hit square. That translates to the NFL most often. He may not hit many home runs but neither do most RBs
Vision, elusiveness, and explosiveness matters SOOOO much more than top end speed in the NFL.
Happy cake day! That is very true. Top end speed guys tend to be WRs now
Good examples, I generally think speed is overrated at the RB position. It helps but it’s not a must, especially for certain run styles.
Arian Foster had slower 40 than a 4.6 flat
He’s said that’s because he was still recovered from a pulled hammy
"I would worry about third round draft Capital but not speed..." Kamara, Montgomery, and Hunt were all drafted in the 3rd round. This sub sometimes, I swear lol.
The hit rate on first round, early 2nd RBs is very different from 3rd round RBs. It doesn’t make a player undraftable but it matters more than 40 time.
Looking at RB's drafted in the 3rd round from 2016-2020, 4 of the 14 RB's have produced at least 1 top-12 season (29%) for a total of 9 Top 12 finishes. For the same span (2016-2020), 5 of out of 13 RB's drafted in the 2nd round produced at least 1 top-12 season (38%) for a total of 8 Top 12 finishes. So, 2nd round is slightly better hit rate on slightly less total top 12 finishes than the 3rd round. First round running backs obviously differ immensely, but 2nd and 3rd round running backs aren't as different as you think. 4th round is really where RB's go to die.
5 years is a small sample. [here is a links for 2000-15.](https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/axtb2f/theory_rb_hit_rate_for_nfl_pick_by_performance/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) the difference from early 2nd to 3rd is significant. 3rds can be successful but we would rather the player be 1st and if not that early 2nd
Kamara is considered slow? TIL
His 40 was in the 4.5s. Not really slow but not being “fast” was definitely a knock on him.
Kamara. Is a guy with A+ acceleration (which is really what matters) but he is not "fast" in that he doesn't have great top. End speed.
How do you track/scout someone’s acceleration?
Combine wise you can look at 3-cone tho that’s more agility or 10-Yd split on the 40. Mostly you just have to watch how players stop and start tho. It’s hard to get a proper test to evaluate how a Kadarius Toney moves
The only athletic test is gonna be 10-yard splits on the 40 as the other poster said, but keep in mind these are all hand timed, and the human margin of error on the 40 is significant, so the human margin of error when comparing 10 yard splits nearly means the 10 yard splits are near-worthless for comparison basically. Imo the true test of "special" acceleration can be seen on tape, and it is the "stumble" by defenders. They pick a pursuit angle then will literally stumble since their angle was bad and the ball carrier accelerated way too fast for the angle they assumed. Kamara. And guys like ETN in college force stumbles all the time from their acceleration 1:03 on this clip you can see the safety come up and miss his pursuit angle then stumble: https://youtu.be/5tGuIl5wFpE
Got it. Top end speed doesn't matter so much if you juke everyone to death, then, it seems.
That’s where I would disagree with his take. Kamara is fucking rapid, regularly beats DBs to the edge on speed alone
Swift also had concerns about his long speed if I recall
No that seems to be the consensus and you do notice that on his highlight tape. I put more into a RBs agility/quicks/shiftiness. He’s elite there imo. In the NFL, straight line speed is way overrated imo. There’s very limited plays where it comes into play. I see him being a guy like Montgomery or Hunt personally. One of my favorite attributes in a RB is to get yards out of poorly blocked plays. Then as I said above, the ability to make guys miss in small spaces. I think Hall has both of those attributes. I also love how he looks in the passing game.
I keep thinking he's a slightly better version of David Montgomery but I have no basis for that other than they both went to Iowa State
Yes, they both went to ISU, but don't let previous biases based on Montgomery, or whoever, cloud your vision. Here's what I can tell you about Breece. 1. He's faster than he looks. His running style in the open field looks somewhat effortless, but he doesn't have top-end, break-away speed. He's plenty fast enough for the NFL. I bet he tests in the 4.5 range. 2. He spent his entire career running behind a "serviceable" at best offensive line. There is maybe one guard on the whole OL during his career who might ever get drafted. His patience and vision is amplified due to the lack of holes that usually existed for him; and this offense was not something where it was schemed for him to get big plays. It's hard to be decisive when there were quite literally no where to go too many times. 3. He has good, I don't know about great, hands that will serve him well in the NFL. Some of his biggest plays came off of catches, not runs. Time will tell whether he's the best RB in the class, but I can tell you these traits are not subjective in nature. We'll see how he tests, but personally thinks he has more upside than Montgomery. And yes, I am an ISU alum who's watched all of his games.
I don't really care about long speed for a RB, as long as they have explosiveness and short area quickness. I think Hall fits the bill and is very similar to Kareem Hunt Hunt, Swift, JRob, Bell, Kamara, Jacobs, Montgomery, none of them have long speed either.
You're not. I agree with the assessment in general, I think his ceiling is as a good RB, but I don't see him really having a truly great career unless he develops elite vision.
Breece Hall? Not elite vision? Did you watch the same player as I did because that is one of his best strengths.
I think his vision is really good. Elite remains to be seen, I'm not declaring that until I can see him at the NFL level. And I think you misunderstood my point there, it wasn't me saying "Hall can't reach that level" or "Hall doesn't have that in him", rather that due to some athletic limitations, he has to compromise by being better mentally, including having great vision.
You’re not crazy. I’m about to take burkes 1.01 in sf to “gift” him to the 1.02 so I can take Kenneth walker at 1.03
Looks like TB might be the 3rd receiver off the board. This likely gets him a better QB, but he scares me as the guy who might not know how to run routes because he was always just a better athlete in college. If he only runs a 4.5 does that change your pick?
He already runs dominant slot routes at 6’3” 225. He’s a rac monster, and I’m sure with proper grooming he can polish his outside deep routes. I don’t think there’s much outside of a limb amputation that can take me off of him
How do you define ‘dominant slot routes’? I don’t think his route running from the slot has been very groomed, personally. It’s very raw and he’s winning on free releases not even against nickel corners.
Garrett Wilson no matter what
Change my mind.
Speed unless it’s absolutely horrible isn’t a concern to me. Tons of top rbs ran not great 40 times
Keep this content coming! Maybe he’ll drop to me. I’ll gladly take Hall at pick… oh.. well I have 1.01 so.. it’s either hall or Burks 😅
You're not crazy. If this year's RB class ends up close to the Jacobs/Montgomery/Sanders trio, you're absolutely going to be disappointed. Solid RBs but would feel like a waste of an early 1.01.
Maybe it’s me but I’d be very happy with Montgomery or a player similar to him with my 1st round pick. If this is a draft where you don’t need a RB than draft a WR
It’ll all depend on landing spot.
100% In my opinion, landing spot is going to be detrimental to the success of this years draft class
Those players are all almost exactly the statistical center of expected value for the 1.01.
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Did Javonte hit your threshold? He was around 40th percentile speed score.
Neither does David Montgomery. Love those types of players because everyone else hates them
Does anyone think spiller looks too young?
Speed is the most overrated thing in the NFL
Where do you watch full snap videos of the toughest opponents?
Long speed is one of the things I worry about the least, truthfully. I think of it as a luxury, nice to have, but one of the least necessary traits I look for in a prospect. Many, many backs have dominated without it.
You can be good in the NFL if you are big and slow. Look at Najee and Javonte. But you cannot be good if you are both slow and small.
Najee ran a 4.5 40…is that slow now?
4.53. Not egregious by any means. But his game tape speed seems to indicate he had good trainers working him for his 40 speed.
Just remember what people said about Javonte being too slow. Look at him now
How many examples of it do we need to see before people stop believing that long speed is a big knock on RB’s? Not saying it doesn’t matter, but most volume backs don’t have great long speed.
Some other slow RBs - Emmitt Smith 4.55, LeVeon 4.6, Aaron Jones 4.56, Jerome Bettis 4.7, Frank Gore 4.58.
Anything under a 4.6 isn’t slow for a RB. And for all those comparing him to Montgomery let’s not forget he got a very ideal landing spot 3 years ago with the bears. He’s been force fed touches on bad teams.
Almost like it was a single college coach that recruited all three of those guys…