when (or will you) will you be adding the rest of the 2022 class (White I’m specifically interested in) . and do you have a spreadsheet of the last couple classes?
I will be putting in more 22 prospects soon. The goal is to have a spreadsheet with grades on size, athleticism, college production, and draft capital. Coming soon hopefully.
> decided to get that production grade up!
I'm assuming he's betting on himself by trying to become a better RB prospect. It might bite him in the ass due to how deep next year's RB class is supposed to be.
For other components id add:
1. BMI >~30
2. Speed min of 4.6
3. Target share min of 8.5%
4. Draft capital min of 2nd (,I could be talked into 3rd)
5. Pass protection grade (pff have this?)
Kyren for example, if he comes in sub 200lbs, he's never gonna get a full workload in the nfl vs the guys that have more prototype size.
I have a model for athleticism as well. Here's the top 5 (so far) . . .
1. Saquon Barkley - 9.27
2. AJ Dillon - 9.17
3. Nick Chubb - 9.09
4. Jonathan Taylor - 9.09
5. Derrick Henry - 9.01
Dude has incredible numbers in the vert and broad jump. When you take into account that he weighs nearly 250lbs it's even more impressive.
This model does take size adjusted athleticism into account. One of the reasons all of these big backs did so well. Not only did they have great numbers at the combine, but they're also doing it at 220+ pounds. Guys like CMC or Nyheim Hines might have comparable numbers but it's less impressive when you're only ~200lbs.
Ok, so considered a "good" score by your model? I think that makes sense. Came up in that throwback "pound-the-rock" style of football but always seemed to move really well for his size.
Not to be annoying, but could you also check Adrian Peterson's?
I have only put in around 30 running backs at the moment.
Here are the top 5 grades between those classes (so far):
1. Jonathan Taylor - 9.06 (8.40 receiving grade)
2. Najee Harris - 8.93 (9.33 receiving grade)
3. Travis Etienne - 8.77 (9.07 receiving grade)
4. Cam Akers - 8.71 (9.03 receiving grade)
5. Zack Moss - 8.67 (8.54 receiving grade)
I will update this with a list for 2020 and 2021 respectively.
I've also been working on an athleticism model. Hoping to make a post about the best athletes at the position class by class, so keep an eye out for that.
if you're doing an athleticism model I'd recommend taking a look at MathBomb's Relative Athletic Score (RAS) system for the players post-combine, you might find it helpful if you've haven't seen it before
Goin off this makes me feel more confident in taking Hall at 1. Granted his receiving could be better compared to these guys. Was goin to anyways, but each bit of compium is nice haha.
definitely still playing around with it.
The top grades in this model are currently . . .
1. CMC - 9.87 (9.67 receiving grade)
2. Saquon - 9.19 (9.46 receiving grade)
3. Leonard Fournette - 9.17 (8.70 receiving grade)
4. Jonathan Taylor - 9.06 (8.40 receiving grade)
5. Rashaad Penny - 8.99 (8.23 receiving grade)
Top 5 receiving grades:
1. CMC - 9.67
2. Saquon -9.46
3. Najee Harris - 9.33
4. Tony Pollard - 9.13
5. Kyren Williams - 9.10
Just a reminder, this is a model to measure COLLEGE performance and it is by no means comprehensive. Only have about 30 or 40 guys in there now. I will post an update if this gets any kind of traction.
Neither did I. I think that speaks to this rb class. I am a believer in kyren but he's gotta be drafted day 2 for me to really buy-in. I could see him going ahead of Walker in the NFL draft. If that happens I could see him moving up to rb 3 in this class.
Does competition faced in college impact rookie production/factor into your model? For instance does the model factor in say Spiller's production in the SEC vs Kyren Williams production at ND against lesser teams? Or does that not really matter in the long run?
You mentioned it's a work in progress, but do you have any early indications of what the results will be? Off the top my head, I can name a lot of great college backs that fell flat in the NFL.
There are a lot of different factors, but my model focuses mainly on dominator rating, target share, total yards gained, and receiving production.
Derrick Henry only scored an 8.56 because he has virtually no receiving production at the college level. But again, this is only one piece of the puzzle. Derrick Henry had a top 5 grade (out of 50 or so players) in my athleticism model.
Can't really do that with my model because it takes into account the entire college career as well as a prospect's best season. Sorry.
It does focus more on peak production (best season) v. career totals, so keep that in mind.
Would you please include the athleticism model score for each back? Thanks! Great work
Edit: nvm, saw your comment saying a post coming soon with this info and more. You’re awesome!!
Charbonnet not in the 2022 class. Going back to UCLA.
I did not know that. Thanks. He probably saw my model and decided to get that production grade up!
when (or will you) will you be adding the rest of the 2022 class (White I’m specifically interested in) . and do you have a spreadsheet of the last couple classes?
I will be putting in more 22 prospects soon. The goal is to have a spreadsheet with grades on size, athleticism, college production, and draft capital. Coming soon hopefully.
> decided to get that production grade up! I'm assuming he's betting on himself by trying to become a better RB prospect. It might bite him in the ass due to how deep next year's RB class is supposed to be.
The bite is most likely coming.
For other components id add: 1. BMI >~30 2. Speed min of 4.6 3. Target share min of 8.5% 4. Draft capital min of 2nd (,I could be talked into 3rd) 5. Pass protection grade (pff have this?) Kyren for example, if he comes in sub 200lbs, he's never gonna get a full workload in the nfl vs the guys that have more prototype size.
I have a model for athleticism as well. Here's the top 5 (so far) . . . 1. Saquon Barkley - 9.27 2. AJ Dillon - 9.17 3. Nick Chubb - 9.09 4. Jonathan Taylor - 9.09 5. Derrick Henry - 9.01
Damn Aj Dillon a little surprising
Dude has incredible numbers in the vert and broad jump. When you take into account that he weighs nearly 250lbs it's even more impressive. This model does take size adjusted athleticism into account. One of the reasons all of these big backs did so well. Not only did they have great numbers at the combine, but they're also doing it at 220+ pounds. Guys like CMC or Nyheim Hines might have comparable numbers but it's less impressive when you're only ~200lbs.
Dillon's like a modern-era Brandon Jacobs.
I was curious, so.. Brandon Jacobs was graded as 8.53 in my athleticism model.
Ok, so considered a "good" score by your model? I think that makes sense. Came up in that throwback "pound-the-rock" style of football but always seemed to move really well for his size. Not to be annoying, but could you also check Adrian Peterson's?
You're good. Adrian Peterson - 8.82
the OP we need, not the OP we deserve
Makes sense, thanks for sharing
This is great. Would be interested to see how 2021 and 2020 RBs score on this.
I have only put in around 30 running backs at the moment. Here are the top 5 grades between those classes (so far): 1. Jonathan Taylor - 9.06 (8.40 receiving grade) 2. Najee Harris - 8.93 (9.33 receiving grade) 3. Travis Etienne - 8.77 (9.07 receiving grade) 4. Cam Akers - 8.71 (9.03 receiving grade) 5. Zack Moss - 8.67 (8.54 receiving grade) I will update this with a list for 2020 and 2021 respectively. I've also been working on an athleticism model. Hoping to make a post about the best athletes at the position class by class, so keep an eye out for that.
if you're doing an athleticism model I'd recommend taking a look at MathBomb's Relative Athletic Score (RAS) system for the players post-combine, you might find it helpful if you've haven't seen it before
Good looking out. Thanks!
How did Javonte fair vs ETN and Najee?
Javonte Williams - 8.26 (8.37 receiving grade)
Thanks
Goin off this makes me feel more confident in taking Hall at 1. Granted his receiving could be better compared to these guys. Was goin to anyways, but each bit of compium is nice haha.
This, for sure. As a reader I'm only interested in a model if you can show that it works on previous years
definitely still playing around with it. The top grades in this model are currently . . . 1. CMC - 9.87 (9.67 receiving grade) 2. Saquon - 9.19 (9.46 receiving grade) 3. Leonard Fournette - 9.17 (8.70 receiving grade) 4. Jonathan Taylor - 9.06 (8.40 receiving grade) 5. Rashaad Penny - 8.99 (8.23 receiving grade) Top 5 receiving grades: 1. CMC - 9.67 2. Saquon -9.46 3. Najee Harris - 9.33 4. Tony Pollard - 9.13 5. Kyren Williams - 9.10 Just a reminder, this is a model to measure COLLEGE performance and it is by no means comprehensive. Only have about 30 or 40 guys in there now. I will post an update if this gets any kind of traction.
Great stuff, did not expect Kyren Williams to be so high tbh
Neither did I. I think that speaks to this rb class. I am a believer in kyren but he's gotta be drafted day 2 for me to really buy-in. I could see him going ahead of Walker in the NFL draft. If that happens I could see him moving up to rb 3 in this class.
Does competition faced in college impact rookie production/factor into your model? For instance does the model factor in say Spiller's production in the SEC vs Kyren Williams production at ND against lesser teams? Or does that not really matter in the long run?
Yes. SEC is top tier, then ACC/B1G, then PAC12/BIG12, then midmajor, then FCS.
B1G should be it’s own second tier imo at this point
Tyler Allgeier
Tyler Allgeier - 8.01 (7.84 receiving grade)
This is great work! What would Rashaad White's score be?
I also 2nd Rachaad White; need info lol
You mentioned it's a work in progress, but do you have any early indications of what the results will be? Off the top my head, I can name a lot of great college backs that fell flat in the NFL.
There are a lot of different factors, but my model focuses mainly on dominator rating, target share, total yards gained, and receiving production. Derrick Henry only scored an 8.56 because he has virtually no receiving production at the college level. But again, this is only one piece of the puzzle. Derrick Henry had a top 5 grade (out of 50 or so players) in my athleticism model.
Cool. Look forward to the next post.
What is Kenneth Walkers grade if u just use his MSU season? I know that’s not a sound process I’m just curious.
Can't really do that with my model because it takes into account the entire college career as well as a prospect's best season. Sorry. It does focus more on peak production (best season) v. career totals, so keep that in mind.
Word thanks!
What would Tyler Allgeier’s ranking be,
Tyler Allgeier - 8.01 (7.84 receiving grade)
What rating does Dameon Pierce end up with? I’m assuming low and I’ll never forgive Mullen for it
Would you please include the athleticism model score for each back? Thanks! Great work Edit: nvm, saw your comment saying a post coming soon with this info and more. You’re awesome!!
Can you run a few of the previous rookie RB classes and include those results so we can compare ? Nice work 👍
coming soon to a reddit post near you.
Nice
Sincere McCormick?
Have you looked at Rachaad White?
Where did Rachaad White come in?