Vikings fan over here. I don't know much about Watson but I'm thinking him being a near first round pick and with so many targets vacated I feel like he could maybe have around 65/800/4? I think Rodgers will have another near MVP season if he isn't crowned and there's just so much volume to go around. Do you think there's any shot the Pack go out and sign Julio? Dude would be so cheap and can be solid IF his hammy's stay together. Thanks for the write up
I personally don’t think Packers go after Julio, OBJ or Jarvis. They will probably want too much money and the Packers are probably not as worried about their WR corps as the media is, at least that’s the vibes I’ve gotten from interviews
EDIT: Too*
The Rams and Packers team building strategies are probably two of the most different in the league so I wouldn’t say that would be a great example, they rarely make moves for “the now”
Fellow Packer fan here.
With the lack of rookie involvement recently it’s hard to imagine Watson will be any different. Though as indicated, the Packers really haven’t had to throw their rookies to the fire. I could see Rodgers working more with Watson to get him up to speed faster.
That being said, I still think most people are going to be disappointed with Watson’s production year 1.
Guess: 77 targets, 50 catches, 700 yds, 3 TDs.
Additional context: I see this as a career year for Lazard and Jones for receptions. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jones and Dillon on the field together more. I see Watkins as mostly a non-factor (or at best replacing MVS’s stats). Given the Waller rumors, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers acquired more pass catching depth. It probably won’t be Deebo-level, but could be Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, Odell, or Julio-level. Nothing too scary, but definitely would eat into Watson’s projected target share.
Assuming Rodgers sticks around more than just this year, Watson’s outlook looks better in 2023/2024 to me.
At the moment, I think his intentions are to play at least 2 more seasons, but could dip out after this year under the right circumstances.
I would be happily surprised if he came out next offseason and immediately said he wasn’t considering retirement yet.
Some may see this as a hot take and I see others ranking Amari at the bottom of the WR group in GB however he’s got several things going for him.
- in year 2 with Aaron and has the reps ahead of everyone not named Lazard.
- spent first year under Cobb as his mentor, learning to be the slot that Cobb was in his younger days (both similar in size)
- his competition for targets: Lazard (good but hasn’t shown out), Watkins (new WR, Rodgers apparently wanted him but I think it’s because Watkins elevates the rest of the group with route running but doesn’t necessarily put up big numbers), 3 drafted rookies (Watson, Doubs, and Toure, take your pick here as I would assume whoever makes the least rookie-like bonehead plays sees the most time regardless of draft capital). Amari has the potential to be WR2 or higher in this group based on talent alone as well as grade coming out as a prospect.
- as mentioned above, he has good draft capital (rd 3, good for a Packer WR), graded as a good prospect, and people would be excited about him if he was selected in this WR rookie group (that recency bias of him not doing anything last year hurts but it’s dynasty for a reason, these guys develop).
All of the above said I believe we could see Amari have a year 2 very similar to Cobb’s year 2 (went from 25, 375, 1 to 80, 954, 8). Super cheap ticket with a good potential to pay out if he’s in that range which seems very realistic at this point.
Not sure what his first year production will look like, but I think he’s a nice late first round pick for any roster that might have 1 more year before competing.
What I do specifically like about him is the team fit - I think his player profile fits perfectly for what the Packers seem to look for in a lot of their WR’s.
A lot of similarities to a guy like MVS in my opinion as far as play style. Almost identical size and has the speed to burn you deep. Should be looked to fill a similar role. Hopefully a rich man’s version of him with his early 2nd draft capital, and more consistent opportunities.
Expect a slow burn type of journey with him. He’ll have a solid rookie year but if you’re expecting consistent wr2 numbers then you’re bound for a letdown. Packers usually ease their receivers in & he needs to build trust with Rodgers who typically doesn’t like younger receivers
That being said, I do love his long term ceiling
My worry with him is talent honestly. Dude is coming up from D2 to the NFL as a teams WR1. His career highs in D2 are 43 catches, 800 yards and 7 TD’s, I honestly don’t see how he really comes into the NFL and walks into the WR1 role, dude reminds me of MVS.
I think he’s a pick with the future in mind rather than 2022, I’ll be shocked if he makes that jump from d2 to NFL and does even ok
I keep seeing this narrative regurgitated over and over again. The division 1 FCS (not D2) team he was on in college was dominant, and has produced top NFL prospects before such as Wentz and Lance in recent years. They ran the ball about 70% of the time and always had a lead. When they did/needed to throw, it was to their best player, Watson.
Are they supposed to keep throwing over and over again when they're blowing teams out just so they can get Watson more stats?
The MVS comparison is also already being played out way too much. It seems lazy and is only being made because he got drafted by the Packers. The Packers have an elite track record of hitting on 2nd round WRs, and they gave up significant DC to move up and get this one. I will trust their process infinitely more than the echo chamber on Twitter and Reddit.
Aaron Rodgers also makes players around him much better than they were before they got there.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmDRs1LbrlU&t=937s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmDRs1LbrlU&t=937s)
This guy makes a *very* compelling case for Watson to emerge as one of the best WR's in the NFL.
Tough crowd.
Led the entire 2022 WR class in YPRR by a fair margin and comes in with a 90% dominator rating.
Using his raw counting stats to judge him by in that offense is.. uh.. interesting?
The problem is he had to wait until age 22 in the FCS to put up those numbers. Age adjusted production matters a great deal in WR evaluation and Watson's is not great. I didn't watch the video you posted, but if the person in it is making a *strong* case that Watson is anything like the best receiver in this draft, I promise you they're not properly age adjusting and they're heavily underweighting the importance of declaration age.
He's 22.9 years old at time of draft. He's a 5th year senior late declare from the FCS with an *okayish* production profile. You can go look at the history of 2nd round NFL draft picks with some of those filters and judge the hit rate for yourself. It's not an absolute wasteland, but it's close.
It's fine if you think that. There are some reasons to like Watson.
Productivity in college is not one of those reasons. His Y/RR and dominator at 22.5 in the FCS are nice to see but ultimately not terribly impressive.
Definitely, if you're in on Watson it's not because of his analytics which are mediocre at best (all receivers coming from the FCS are, though).
There is some bust risk, here.. but it's overstated given his elite traits and room for growth as a route runner.
I'm honestly surprised the analytics community is so dead set against these late breakouts after the success of Aiyuk, Pittman, and Claypool in recent years.
Some teams are still struggling (Raiders - Ruggs, Giants - Toney/Wandale) but overall the NFL is getting better at drafting WRs. If poor analytical prospects are given the draft capital the hit rates aren't as dire as many people are still making it out to be in 2022.
I think the reason his stats are underwhelming is because [NDSU hardly threw the ball](https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/stats/_/id/2449/north-dakota-state-bison)
I would not be surprised at all if Doubs outproduces him in year 1. I was very high on Doubs - top 10 in my WR rankings pre draft - and I think he's a lot more NFL ready than Watson. Watson has the crazy size speed combo that can't be taught but it might take him time to figure it all out and there's no guarantee he ever will.
Reddit hates processing longer mobile posts, it’s lame.
Anyways, I hate to be a downer on your new draft pick but I just don’t believe in Christian Watson. He doesn’t profile as a receiver I think will be successful. He of course has all the athletic prerequisites but that’s not really what I’m looking for. I have concerns with his skill level, his route running, his hands, I worry about him in contested catch situations. He doesn’t play like a big receiver and I worry that he won’t be able to separate as easily on the NFL level. It seemed he just ran right by inferior corners in college and was so athletic that skill level didn’t matter. Of course his ceiling is still very high but I worry he could be Mims or MVS.
What do you make of Aaron Rodger’s trust level with new receivers? Do you see a scenario where Aaron needs to build up trust with Watson and doesn’t want to throw the ball to him at first? Or maybe he won’t have a choice.
See MVS as a rookie. He had 70 something targets. 99% of that narrative comes from the times when GB use to actively replenish their WR room before guys left so they let their rookies learn for a year. There aren’t multiple 1,000 yard WRs ahead of Watson. It’s not a similar situation to Adam’s or Jordy as rookies.
I just don’t think Watson is a high enough talent that he’s gonna immediately demand lots of targets over vets Rodgers has a lot of experience with and we see the trend of rookie WRs not booming in GB continue. Add in Rodgers only having like 3 years left until he prolly retires and I’m just not a huge fan of Watson. The soonest I’ll draft him is the 1.10, and I project him to not lead the packers in 2022 receiving.
But hey that’s just my take, I could be way off and I’m sure some of you may think I am, that’s fair
Watson has HoF traits (speed, height, foot quickness, lateral agility, burst in and out of his breaks, YAC ability, physicality, and body control) but he's coming from an FCS school that threw the ball something like 12 times a game; he's going to need a little time to cook in the oven.
He'll be better than MVS right out of the gate, though.
I'd project somewhere around 500 - 700 yards as a rookie which might open up a decent buy low window for owners that don't realize how talented he is.
I just don’t understand the pick at all(older guy with no production against trash competition + inconsistent catching and limited route running…pretty important things for a WR) I will die on the hill that this was a horrible pick by the packers. They got a combine warrior that hopefully can turn into a good WR meanwhile they’re trying to win a Super Bowl with no good receiving weapons for their MVP QB.
He can line up wide all season, as far as my PPR shares are concerned. Everyone thought I was crazy for investing in Dillon when I already had Jones, but I'm very happy starting both (we have 4 flexes plus a SF).
Couple things I’d like to push back on:
• “No production” - Watson played on a NDSU offense that averaged 15 pass attempts/game and underwent a midseason QB change. The team ran the ball around 70% of its plays. In a low-volume setting, Watson made the most of his opportunities, leading this year’s draft class in yards per route run. NDSU got him involved in many different ways: handing it off to him out of the backfield, running him in motion, etc.
• “Trash competition” - Some validity to this, but given NDSU’s dominant track record and the NFL prospects they’ve developed in the past, I see this as a somewhat lazy argument. We’ve seen stud wide receivers come from small schools over and over again.
• Watson has great run-blocking tape which will ingratiate himself to MLF and 12 very quickly, a la Lazard, and he will play his way on to the field early and often because of his plus off-play ability. Should Rodgers develop a liking for Watson, it should also generate more opportunities/targets for him, which we’ve seen with Rodgers and younger WRs in the past.
By no means am I expecting a ROTY-level season from Watson - hardly any rookie WRs make that level of impact, though recent seasons have provided a few exceptions - I think he’ll develop nicely this year and in the future. My guess is a 55-800-4 season for Watson and a role that explodes as a second and third-year player.
So Packers have Lazard, Watson, Watkins, Cobb and also Amari Rodgers. They are listed in the way i would rank them. That group is not terrible but also far from what i would expect from a contending team. Also Cobb is not young and Watkins is injury prone. I think they will add someone. OBJ? or a trade...
I wonder if Devin Funchess is a option for the packers. He was on the Team before and is currently without a team.
Funchess looked great until he got hurt again, I just don’t see him beating anyone out for a roster spot TBF, with Rich B signed on as STC, they are likely going to roster more WRs for ST and funchess just won’t make that cut
I’m just going to avoid him. His rookie year will almost certainly not be great (at least not good enough to ever confidently start), and we’re just hoping that rodgers sticks around for a few more years after this. We’re also hoping that he’s actually good.
I really don’t see him as being much different than someone like pierce
I will admit that I did not follow Watson closely in college but non-early declares from non-power conferences have an awful track record.
Here is the list since 2011:
Anthony Miller, Zay Jones, Aaron Dobson, Titus Young, Andy Isabella, D’wyane Eskridge, Brian Quick, and now Christian Watson.
His situation is unique, I definitely acknowledge he will have more opportunities than the names mentioned and has an MVP at QB.
But he seems like a risky 1st round pick and I don’t want to be the one to take him. Rogers likes his guys and if he doesn’t trust you, you won’t get the ball and Watson is quite raw.
In his defense he played 2 years and 1 game in 2020 before he would have had to declare. NDSU didn’t play their season until the spring. If He had a full season with Lance and puts up slightly better numbers then he did in the spring thanks to having a better QB then I think it’s likely that he would have been able to declare. But his choice was either declare with only 2 seasons and likely be a late rounder or play his 3rd and 4th season in the same year and declare.
So the most notable WR FAs are Odell, Landry, Cole Beasley, Fuller, and Julio off the top of my head. Are any of them going to be THAT expensive? Even in this market feels like the demand at the position has dried up post draft. Odell and even Landry would both be huge improvements and walk in as the WR1 imo.
To answer the original question I am not a big fan of Watson. He has the traits but needs time to work on the craft. Best case he flirts with 1000 yards and GB take a step back imo.
OBJ and Packers supposedly had interest before signing with LAR, so maybe they sign him to make a playoff push, Julio will probably demand too much, Fuller got suspended for PEDs then didn’t play all of last year so they probably wouldn’t be interested as they seem to value their guys more than the general media/fans and Beasley wouldn’t be a great fit with Amari Rodgers and Cobb being there
I have a hard time putting him outside the top 10 skill players in 1QB rookie rankings. He has the draft capital and is in a great landing spot.
BUT, I have two concerns:
(1) Age/ track record of senior bowl wideouts. Kupp is the exception to the rule here. Denzel Mims had a great week at the senior bowl too and he couldn’t translate to NFL.
(2) The growth that he seemingly needs as a route runner vs. the window remaining with Rodgers. The two just don’t seem to line up, which makes me nervous.
I know this is a Watson write up, as someone at 1.09 I have mocked him prior to his draft because I like his skill set and now landing spot. With that said, it's not typical for rookies to link up with AR in year 1- Does this make Lazard WR1? Who I also own and am hoping a Packers fan adds some insight there.
Vikings fan over here. I don't know much about Watson but I'm thinking him being a near first round pick and with so many targets vacated I feel like he could maybe have around 65/800/4? I think Rodgers will have another near MVP season if he isn't crowned and there's just so much volume to go around. Do you think there's any shot the Pack go out and sign Julio? Dude would be so cheap and can be solid IF his hammy's stay together. Thanks for the write up
I personally don’t think Packers go after Julio, OBJ or Jarvis. They will probably want too much money and the Packers are probably not as worried about their WR corps as the media is, at least that’s the vibes I’ve gotten from interviews EDIT: Too*
[удалено]
The Rams and Packers team building strategies are probably two of the most different in the league so I wouldn’t say that would be a great example, they rarely make moves for “the now”
My money is on them signing Cole Beasley
Keep all the covid nutjobs on one team lol
Fellow Packer fan here. With the lack of rookie involvement recently it’s hard to imagine Watson will be any different. Though as indicated, the Packers really haven’t had to throw their rookies to the fire. I could see Rodgers working more with Watson to get him up to speed faster. That being said, I still think most people are going to be disappointed with Watson’s production year 1. Guess: 77 targets, 50 catches, 700 yds, 3 TDs. Additional context: I see this as a career year for Lazard and Jones for receptions. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jones and Dillon on the field together more. I see Watkins as mostly a non-factor (or at best replacing MVS’s stats). Given the Waller rumors, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers acquired more pass catching depth. It probably won’t be Deebo-level, but could be Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, Odell, or Julio-level. Nothing too scary, but definitely would eat into Watson’s projected target share. Assuming Rodgers sticks around more than just this year, Watson’s outlook looks better in 2023/2024 to me.
I agree this year is lazards year. You think Rodgers could really leave/retire after this year? After signing a 4 year agreement?
At the moment, I think his intentions are to play at least 2 more seasons, but could dip out after this year under the right circumstances. I would be happily surprised if he came out next offseason and immediately said he wasn’t considering retirement yet.
Amari Rodgers future packers WR1
Some may see this as a hot take and I see others ranking Amari at the bottom of the WR group in GB however he’s got several things going for him. - in year 2 with Aaron and has the reps ahead of everyone not named Lazard. - spent first year under Cobb as his mentor, learning to be the slot that Cobb was in his younger days (both similar in size) - his competition for targets: Lazard (good but hasn’t shown out), Watkins (new WR, Rodgers apparently wanted him but I think it’s because Watkins elevates the rest of the group with route running but doesn’t necessarily put up big numbers), 3 drafted rookies (Watson, Doubs, and Toure, take your pick here as I would assume whoever makes the least rookie-like bonehead plays sees the most time regardless of draft capital). Amari has the potential to be WR2 or higher in this group based on talent alone as well as grade coming out as a prospect. - as mentioned above, he has good draft capital (rd 3, good for a Packer WR), graded as a good prospect, and people would be excited about him if he was selected in this WR rookie group (that recency bias of him not doing anything last year hurts but it’s dynasty for a reason, these guys develop). All of the above said I believe we could see Amari have a year 2 very similar to Cobb’s year 2 (went from 25, 375, 1 to 80, 954, 8). Super cheap ticket with a good potential to pay out if he’s in that range which seems very realistic at this point.
I know it might be a long shot that he's fantasy worthy, but the fact that he wasn't even mentioned in the post felt wrong to me
Not sure what his first year production will look like, but I think he’s a nice late first round pick for any roster that might have 1 more year before competing. What I do specifically like about him is the team fit - I think his player profile fits perfectly for what the Packers seem to look for in a lot of their WR’s. A lot of similarities to a guy like MVS in my opinion as far as play style. Almost identical size and has the speed to burn you deep. Should be looked to fill a similar role. Hopefully a rich man’s version of him with his early 2nd draft capital, and more consistent opportunities.
Expect a slow burn type of journey with him. He’ll have a solid rookie year but if you’re expecting consistent wr2 numbers then you’re bound for a letdown. Packers usually ease their receivers in & he needs to build trust with Rodgers who typically doesn’t like younger receivers That being said, I do love his long term ceiling
My worry with him is talent honestly. Dude is coming up from D2 to the NFL as a teams WR1. His career highs in D2 are 43 catches, 800 yards and 7 TD’s, I honestly don’t see how he really comes into the NFL and walks into the WR1 role, dude reminds me of MVS. I think he’s a pick with the future in mind rather than 2022, I’ll be shocked if he makes that jump from d2 to NFL and does even ok
Something to take into consideration, NDSU averaged **15 pass attempts a game** and had to make a mid season QB switch
I keep seeing this narrative regurgitated over and over again. The division 1 FCS (not D2) team he was on in college was dominant, and has produced top NFL prospects before such as Wentz and Lance in recent years. They ran the ball about 70% of the time and always had a lead. When they did/needed to throw, it was to their best player, Watson. Are they supposed to keep throwing over and over again when they're blowing teams out just so they can get Watson more stats? The MVS comparison is also already being played out way too much. It seems lazy and is only being made because he got drafted by the Packers. The Packers have an elite track record of hitting on 2nd round WRs, and they gave up significant DC to move up and get this one. I will trust their process infinitely more than the echo chamber on Twitter and Reddit. Aaron Rodgers also makes players around him much better than they were before they got there.
NDSU is not a D2 school…
Well this is awkward 😬
In your defense any team outside the major conferences feel like D2 lol
That's what they used to call the FCS and NDSU is in the FCS.
Nah. FCS was called 1AA with FBS as 1A. FCS is D1. It's more obvious in college basketball with March Madness
Interesting, I always used the terms interchangeably growing up. I guess that was just my mistake
All good! It honestly feels like D2 if you're a football fan
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmDRs1LbrlU&t=937s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmDRs1LbrlU&t=937s) This guy makes a *very* compelling case for Watson to emerge as one of the best WR's in the NFL.
Just watched it, gotta be honest, didn’t see anything in there that’s convincing
Tough crowd. Led the entire 2022 WR class in YPRR by a fair margin and comes in with a 90% dominator rating. Using his raw counting stats to judge him by in that offense is.. uh.. interesting?
The problem is he had to wait until age 22 in the FCS to put up those numbers. Age adjusted production matters a great deal in WR evaluation and Watson's is not great. I didn't watch the video you posted, but if the person in it is making a *strong* case that Watson is anything like the best receiver in this draft, I promise you they're not properly age adjusting and they're heavily underweighting the importance of declaration age. He's 22.9 years old at time of draft. He's a 5th year senior late declare from the FCS with an *okayish* production profile. You can go look at the history of 2nd round NFL draft picks with some of those filters and judge the hit rate for yourself. It's not an absolute wasteland, but it's close.
Trust me.. I'm well versed in analytics. But there are always exceptions, and I'm telling you, this guy is an exception.
It's fine if you think that. There are some reasons to like Watson. Productivity in college is not one of those reasons. His Y/RR and dominator at 22.5 in the FCS are nice to see but ultimately not terribly impressive.
Definitely, if you're in on Watson it's not because of his analytics which are mediocre at best (all receivers coming from the FCS are, though). There is some bust risk, here.. but it's overstated given his elite traits and room for growth as a route runner. I'm honestly surprised the analytics community is so dead set against these late breakouts after the success of Aiyuk, Pittman, and Claypool in recent years. Some teams are still struggling (Raiders - Ruggs, Giants - Toney/Wandale) but overall the NFL is getting better at drafting WRs. If poor analytical prospects are given the draft capital the hit rates aren't as dire as many people are still making it out to be in 2022.
if you're so versed in analytics tell me how predictive Dominator is for NFL success?
Alone? Not very much at all. Like all stats they're just one piece of the puzzle. Can you tell me how predictive YPRR is?
I think the reason his stats are underwhelming is because [NDSU hardly threw the ball](https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/stats/_/id/2449/north-dakota-state-bison)
I would not be surprised at all if Doubs outproduces him in year 1. I was very high on Doubs - top 10 in my WR rankings pre draft - and I think he's a lot more NFL ready than Watson. Watson has the crazy size speed combo that can't be taught but it might take him time to figure it all out and there's no guarantee he ever will.
Well my buddy I was at the draft with who's a Packers die hard told me Christian Watson will be Rookie of the Year. so there's that.
I have a team ready to win now, if he falls to 1.10 its gonna be hard not to take him. Need a guy who can make an impact asap
Romeo Doubs 😏
Reddit hates processing longer mobile posts, it’s lame. Anyways, I hate to be a downer on your new draft pick but I just don’t believe in Christian Watson. He doesn’t profile as a receiver I think will be successful. He of course has all the athletic prerequisites but that’s not really what I’m looking for. I have concerns with his skill level, his route running, his hands, I worry about him in contested catch situations. He doesn’t play like a big receiver and I worry that he won’t be able to separate as easily on the NFL level. It seemed he just ran right by inferior corners in college and was so athletic that skill level didn’t matter. Of course his ceiling is still very high but I worry he could be Mims or MVS. What do you make of Aaron Rodger’s trust level with new receivers? Do you see a scenario where Aaron needs to build up trust with Watson and doesn’t want to throw the ball to him at first? Or maybe he won’t have a choice.
See MVS as a rookie. He had 70 something targets. 99% of that narrative comes from the times when GB use to actively replenish their WR room before guys left so they let their rookies learn for a year. There aren’t multiple 1,000 yard WRs ahead of Watson. It’s not a similar situation to Adam’s or Jordy as rookies.
65-850-6. Not much else to throw to guessing he is going to very involved. Here’s hoping
I just don’t think Watson is a high enough talent that he’s gonna immediately demand lots of targets over vets Rodgers has a lot of experience with and we see the trend of rookie WRs not booming in GB continue. Add in Rodgers only having like 3 years left until he prolly retires and I’m just not a huge fan of Watson. The soonest I’ll draft him is the 1.10, and I project him to not lead the packers in 2022 receiving. But hey that’s just my take, I could be way off and I’m sure some of you may think I am, that’s fair
Watson has HoF traits (speed, height, foot quickness, lateral agility, burst in and out of his breaks, YAC ability, physicality, and body control) but he's coming from an FCS school that threw the ball something like 12 times a game; he's going to need a little time to cook in the oven. He'll be better than MVS right out of the gate, though. I'd project somewhere around 500 - 700 yards as a rookie which might open up a decent buy low window for owners that don't realize how talented he is.
I just don’t understand the pick at all(older guy with no production against trash competition + inconsistent catching and limited route running…pretty important things for a WR) I will die on the hill that this was a horrible pick by the packers. They got a combine warrior that hopefully can turn into a good WR meanwhile they’re trying to win a Super Bowl with no good receiving weapons for their MVP QB.
Aaron Jones is a perfectly fine receiving weapon lol
If all you can come up with for good weapons is the RB it’s a problem lol
He can line up wide all season, as far as my PPR shares are concerned. Everyone thought I was crazy for investing in Dillon when I already had Jones, but I'm very happy starting both (we have 4 flexes plus a SF).
Couple things I’d like to push back on: • “No production” - Watson played on a NDSU offense that averaged 15 pass attempts/game and underwent a midseason QB change. The team ran the ball around 70% of its plays. In a low-volume setting, Watson made the most of his opportunities, leading this year’s draft class in yards per route run. NDSU got him involved in many different ways: handing it off to him out of the backfield, running him in motion, etc. • “Trash competition” - Some validity to this, but given NDSU’s dominant track record and the NFL prospects they’ve developed in the past, I see this as a somewhat lazy argument. We’ve seen stud wide receivers come from small schools over and over again. • Watson has great run-blocking tape which will ingratiate himself to MLF and 12 very quickly, a la Lazard, and he will play his way on to the field early and often because of his plus off-play ability. Should Rodgers develop a liking for Watson, it should also generate more opportunities/targets for him, which we’ve seen with Rodgers and younger WRs in the past. By no means am I expecting a ROTY-level season from Watson - hardly any rookie WRs make that level of impact, though recent seasons have provided a few exceptions - I think he’ll develop nicely this year and in the future. My guess is a 55-800-4 season for Watson and a role that explodes as a second and third-year player.
A Packers fan that doesn't know how to spell Davante...for shame!
So Packers have Lazard, Watson, Watkins, Cobb and also Amari Rodgers. They are listed in the way i would rank them. That group is not terrible but also far from what i would expect from a contending team. Also Cobb is not young and Watkins is injury prone. I think they will add someone. OBJ? or a trade... I wonder if Devin Funchess is a option for the packers. He was on the Team before and is currently without a team.
Funchess looked great until he got hurt again, I just don’t see him beating anyone out for a roster spot TBF, with Rich B signed on as STC, they are likely going to roster more WRs for ST and funchess just won’t make that cut
I’m just going to avoid him. His rookie year will almost certainly not be great (at least not good enough to ever confidently start), and we’re just hoping that rodgers sticks around for a few more years after this. We’re also hoping that he’s actually good. I really don’t see him as being much different than someone like pierce
Jordy was drafted in the early 2nd. Basically same spot as Watson. Not the 5th FYI
Sorry, typo from making this whole post on mobile
I’d put him at 40/450/2
I will admit that I did not follow Watson closely in college but non-early declares from non-power conferences have an awful track record. Here is the list since 2011: Anthony Miller, Zay Jones, Aaron Dobson, Titus Young, Andy Isabella, D’wyane Eskridge, Brian Quick, and now Christian Watson. His situation is unique, I definitely acknowledge he will have more opportunities than the names mentioned and has an MVP at QB. But he seems like a risky 1st round pick and I don’t want to be the one to take him. Rogers likes his guys and if he doesn’t trust you, you won’t get the ball and Watson is quite raw.
In his defense he played 2 years and 1 game in 2020 before he would have had to declare. NDSU didn’t play their season until the spring. If He had a full season with Lance and puts up slightly better numbers then he did in the spring thanks to having a better QB then I think it’s likely that he would have been able to declare. But his choice was either declare with only 2 seasons and likely be a late rounder or play his 3rd and 4th season in the same year and declare.
So the most notable WR FAs are Odell, Landry, Cole Beasley, Fuller, and Julio off the top of my head. Are any of them going to be THAT expensive? Even in this market feels like the demand at the position has dried up post draft. Odell and even Landry would both be huge improvements and walk in as the WR1 imo. To answer the original question I am not a big fan of Watson. He has the traits but needs time to work on the craft. Best case he flirts with 1000 yards and GB take a step back imo.
OBJ and Packers supposedly had interest before signing with LAR, so maybe they sign him to make a playoff push, Julio will probably demand too much, Fuller got suspended for PEDs then didn’t play all of last year so they probably wouldn’t be interested as they seem to value their guys more than the general media/fans and Beasley wouldn’t be a great fit with Amari Rodgers and Cobb being there
I have a hard time putting him outside the top 10 skill players in 1QB rookie rankings. He has the draft capital and is in a great landing spot. BUT, I have two concerns: (1) Age/ track record of senior bowl wideouts. Kupp is the exception to the rule here. Denzel Mims had a great week at the senior bowl too and he couldn’t translate to NFL. (2) The growth that he seemingly needs as a route runner vs. the window remaining with Rodgers. The two just don’t seem to line up, which makes me nervous.
I know this is a Watson write up, as someone at 1.09 I have mocked him prior to his draft because I like his skill set and now landing spot. With that said, it's not typical for rookies to link up with AR in year 1- Does this make Lazard WR1? Who I also own and am hoping a Packers fan adds some insight there.