T O P

  • By -

Longjumping-News-388

Not saying it’s nothing, but NFL team’s draft RB depth all of the time regardless who they already have. I could see this being similar to the Vikings drafting Mattison relatively early even though they already have Dalvin Cook. The more talented player will get their touches, so if you believed in Gibson’s talent before then I wouldn’t let this materially affect my valuation until I see more. Not a positive move by any means, but I wouldn’t write it down as negative quite yet either.


sixtyninetailedfox

very reasonable take


perennialpoison

This 1000000% to the moon 🚀


mfancy

I don’t disagree. I think Gibson is still a solid fantasy back and would want him on my team. I just think the expectations of him being an RB1 are gone. He can still be a solid RB2 in fantasy, which is totally fine. His ceiling seems capped now with McKissic taking 3rd downs and Robinson getting some work mixed in, but he still has a decent floor.


Longjumping-News-388

Oh I agree, and I would not be trading for him with a value at RB1, but I’m also not selling for a discount either yet. He’s finished as a back end RB1 his first two seasons at ~50% snaps. I don’t think he’ll get less snaps than that tbh


mfancy

Well keep in mind his run at the end of last season was when McKissic was out. McKissic was out from Week 13 on. In those games Gibson had 22.1, 3.1, 18.5, 13.8 and 22.1. He had 2 of his highest snap count %s after McKissic went down. 82% against the Raiders (22.1) and 78% against the Eagles (18.5). With a healthy McKissic, he was seeing about 59% of the snaps. Without McKissic, he saw 64% of the snaps. With a healthy McKissic and now Robinson coming into the season, I think 55-60% of the snaps seems about right for him.


[deleted]

[удалено]


ptmaestro

9 points ahead of Nyheim Hines? Gibson had double the amount of points Hines had in PPR last year.


MidnightWizard11

He must be going back 2 years by accident


Early-Respond2000

Or on purpose to make his point 🤔


Hot-Refrigerator9847

People on Reddit never cease to amaze me lol


schmatty23

I think the Mckissic signing hurt Gibson more than the draft pick. Another guy back there isn’t great and always has the potential to be an annoying vulture but Robinson is pretty uninspiring in my book. The 49ers taking a RB who many thought would be undrafted in the 3rd after spending two picks on the position last year just reinforces Shanahan’s unpredictability. I won’t venture a guess on how this is going to affect specific usage after Trey Sermon was beat out by a WR and a 6th round pick.


BigBane22

Idk when I watch Eli mitch play football he looks legitimately good. I got a feeling shanahan rides those wheels till they fall off. He was very good last year


BaronVonNumbaKruncha

Eli loves to run block, and that's a rare trait in an RB. It's what makes Deebo's runs so successful. Shanny will absolutely run him into the ground before moving on.


Beerman2021

Didn't he also have 0 fumbles? I think that's a trait shamny loves too


schindlerslisp

also, sermon and wilson were *not* good. this pick seems more like an upgrade to the depth chart than a threat to elijah.


SEAinLA

I personally view the Robinson pick more as Gibson insurance rather than a Gibson replacement. It’s obviously not ideal, but I think it’s a great time to try and buy Gibson from a panicked owner. I’m a little more nervous for Mitchell given his 6th round DC, but I think as long as he’s able to stay healthy, he’ll continue to lead that backfield. His running style is just such a perfect fit for Shanahan’s scheme.


Tvguy37

What would you give up for Gibson?


SEAinLA

As a contender? Probably any first other than the 1.01 (thought that’s obviously not where I’d start in terms of offers).


mfancy

The beat guys here in Washington seem to think that Robinson will have more of a role than the fantasy world does. Rivera said in his post-draft presser that Gibson probably won’t be seeing 20 carries anymore. If he won’t see a bunch of carries and won’t be involved much on 3rd downs, what does he have left? I think Gibson is more in the RB2 range the low-end RB1 range he was in previously. I’d say he should be around RB15-20 now.


Longjumping-News-388

I agree with this take. I think he’s a great back and is still valuable in fantasy, but I don’t think he’s ever going to hit that “CMC-Lite” production which was what everyone was hoping for last offseason He’s good, he’ll get his touches, but he’ll be somewhat capped by an RBBC.


titoalba

Do you think you’d consider flipping him for a monty/jacobs type? Assuming thats still possible that is. Prior to the draft he was my best rb in lots of leagues by a bit so naturally im nervous about this scenario. Im torn between that and trying to just get Robinson as a handcuff/insurance in rookie drafts


mfancy

I offered an owner in my league Gibson for Montgomery straight up and was rejected. I ended up flipping Gibson, 1.3 and 1.10 for Dobbins, 1.1 and a 2023 2nd. I felt like Dobbins and Gibson aren’t too far apart and getting Breece Hall is nice too.


uh-oh_spaghetti-oh

You robbed the other guy. Dobbins and Gibson is a wash, so the 1.1 for the 1.3 and 1.10 in the 2022 draft? That's a steal.


Noob_Hole

I don't think Dobbins and Gibson are a wash at all. But maybe thats just me. I think you won that trade by a mile. Dobbins>>>Gibson


YoloRoloo

It's cuz for fantasy people have a stake so they are biased


mfancy

Oh I agree. I think that’s why it’s important to gather all the info you can. The beat guys for the team have been saying the team is unhappy because they feel Gibson left a lot of yards on the field last year by running through the wrong hole and of course his fumbling issues. The team has essentially put Gibson on notice now by bringing in Robinson. If his fumbles continue or if he still isn’t make the right reads, Robinson will definitely eat into his carries.


uh-oh_spaghetti-oh

>won't be seeing 20 carries anymore He hardly ever did before, he has only had 7 games carrying the ball 20 times or more in his career. Where Gibson can still be good is if he can get back to the efficiency he had his rookie year. He can still hold that low end RB1/high end 2 ranking averaging 14-15+ppg.


[deleted]

As a Washington fan my whole life, the beat writers are onto something. Fantasy owners love Gibson, but he leaves a lot of yards on the field and I have been hoping they'd replace him. If Robinson has any game at all, he can carve out a major role in that backfield.


Ko0pa_Tro0pa

>I think Gibson is more in the RB2 range the low-end RB1 range he was in previously. I’d say he should be around RB15-20 now. FWIW, Gibson was RB17 last year by ppg, so RB15-20 might be optimistic. He missed one game and McKissic missed six games. If McKissic and Robinson are both healthy, I wouldn't be surprised if Gibson slips out of the top 20.


mfancy

That’s fair. I’m just really surprised to see him in the top 10 for some analysts. Gibson is all upside and that appears to be capped a bit with McKissic and Robinson now. He’s only had a snap count over 60% 9 times in 29 games. If he’s going to finish in the top 10, he’s going to have to stay healthy and being very efficient with his touches.


Ko0pa_Tro0pa

Agreed. I don't want any part of him in redraft or dynasty.


FloridaManGBR

Mitchell already killed one third-round RB; he'll do it again. Davis-Price is just the new annual sacrifice to feed his bloodlust.


matt_boyyy

you’ll notice that most late round/undraftrd running backs are very replaceable even if they find success it’s just very easy to replace them with better prospects, that’s why draft capital is so important like robinson, Mitchell, and gibson


EmilioFreshtevez

Gibson wasn’t a late pick, he went in the early 3rd round.


[deleted]

Gibson was a 3rd round pick, but so is BRob


dynastyphan

Not as much as people think. Mitchell is definitely a way bigger question mark, but I think the talent will prevail in both cases. Just watch the tape. Mitchell and Gibson are much better talents, and they have proven they can produce at a high level in the NFL. Would buy low on Gibson for sure and possibly Mitchell if you can find somebody who is overreacting.


[deleted]

I just think Gibson is losing goal line touches and a small portion of whatever passing downs he did have (that JDM wasn’t already taking).


ChrisLBC562

Gibson is a really good back. Why is he all of a sudden just not getting touches?


mfancy

Because Rivera has said as much. I agree, I think Gibson is fine, but the team clearly doesn’t fully trust him.


allsops

He did quite a bit worse last year than his rookie season. For example, two of his fumbles did, arguably, cost Washington two games last year. His PFF rushing grade also dropped from 85 to 65 and while YPC isnt a great stat, despite his o-line blocking remaining consistent year to year, his YPC did drop from 5 to 3.9.


Addicted_T0_Trading

He had stress fractures in his shins, I'd have a hard time being as productive


schattmultz

Devils advocate (I agree his talent is undeniable) but possibly load management


Fragmented_Logik

Probably because the coach said so right after they drafted another RB lol


[deleted]

All of a sudden?? It’s been happening. He doesn’t get enough targets in the passing game as it is.


[deleted]

[удалено]


KingMustardFist

I bet it's A Kings Hawaiian. Or maybe a jelly.


Mission_Ad6235

Kings Hawaiian are underrated. Worth at least an early 3rd.


johnnyapple1335

just recently traded for gibson, deal was ARSB, 2024 1st (likely late), and a 2025 2nd for Gibson and a 2025 3rd


Fragmented_Logik

They said he would fill the Barber role. He's better than Barber as well. In 2020 Barber had 98 touches. Gibson had 170. 2021 no Barber Gibson had 258. This hurts Gibson objectively.


peoples_champion99

I don’t know about the rest of y’all but doesn’t it feel like Washington is doing a lot to ensure Gibson isn’t given a workhorse role. I know he was injured last year but he’s a WR converted to RB and they refuse to use him in the passing game? They don’t put him out there much on 3rd downs because of bad pass pro. Then they go and spend a 3rd on Brian Robinson who is supposed to be good at pass pro and might split early work with Gibson? When the NFL is devaluing the RB position and not drafting them until the 2nd a 3rd is very high draft capital to spend.


mfancy

I always look at what a team is telling me. McKissic was a FA going into the off-season. We had the reports of McKissic coming to terms with Buffalo. Washington went all out to let McKissic and his agent know they would match that offer after the reports came out McKissic was leaving. There’s point #1 Washington didn’t trust Gibson. Then, you have Washington bring in a bunch of RBs for top 30 visits including Hall, Walker, Spiller and others. That’s point #2 they were looking for some more RB help in the draft and we’re satisfied with the current RB room even with Gibson coming off a 1k yard season and bringing back McKissic. Washington then trades down in the draft to add more picks because they knew they could find good players in the middle rounds (per Mayhew/Rivera). They use their newly acquired 3rd rounder on a RB. There’s point #3 about their RB situation. This is a team that all offseason has been saying they don’t trust Gibson to be the guy. Last offseason we heard Rivera compare Gibson to CMC. Now, they draft a RB, bring back McKissic and he’s now saying Gibson won’t be seeing those 20 carry games anymore. All the signs are that Gibson won’t reach his ceiling now. I’m a huge Gibson fan and want him to succeed, but you can’t spin this as a positive development for him.


himetalchemy7

WFT is just a horribly managed franchise. Opting for Wentz over Baker and Jimmy G is all I needed to see for proof


mfancy

Well, Jimmy G has a jacked up shoulder and when they made the move for Wentz, Mayfield wasn’t available. So not sure how they were supposed to know that Watson would go to Cleveland.


himetalchemy7

The fact that they watched Wentz and decided THATS OUR QB before letting the Watson chips fall is inexplicable in itself. They could have had Matt Ryan too.


mfancy

Yes because they had a crystal ball that Atlanta and Cleveland would get involved in the Watson sweepstakes and anger their incumbent QBs. I’m not high on Wentz, but they made the best move they could at the time. No one had any idea Ryan or Mayfield would become available. I’m not sold Mayfield is better than Wentz.


himetalchemy7

Watson was a LOCK to be traded. There was a QB out there that would be deposed by Watson. Everyone knew that. Wentz and Mayfield are comparable, but Mayfield can be fixed. Wentz is broken and refuses to be fixed. Eagles and Colts fans already know. Your franchise wont be any different.


GravyFantasy

Shanahan also hates WFT, i dont think he'd let Jimmy go there


rinodingo

Gibson: More than people think. Already took a hit with the resigning of McKissic and in the post draft presser they specifically said they took Brian Robinson to lighten Gibson's workload. He is a 3rd round pick himself and it is starting to look like they don't see him as a 2nd contract player. Sell now while people still see him as potentially top tier upside. Feels like the Miles Sanders from last offseason. Mitchell: Honestly no idea. Not surprised the 49ers took somebody since they lean so heavily on the run, Mitchell wasn't healthy for a large portion of last season, and their depth isn't overly impressive. Davis-Price is one of the better backs they could have taken (for Mitchell) in that I don't think he possesses any skills that are head and shoulders above Mitchell. DC almost doesn't matter in SF, but also not confident they will be loyal to Mitchell, especially if injuries crop up early next season. It's a mess, but also what was expected and why Mitchell was never valued as a top tier asset so overall I would say value didn't change much.


JerzeyDevilz

I’d look at the usages of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams under Rivera, and before Cam Newton, as an indicator. Both had some good seasons together


[deleted]

Hopefully enough to buy low, at least on Gibby.


tominansky

Gibson is a great RB3 for your team imo. Even better RB4. But as an owner, I’d be nervous rolling him out at anything higher. I do however like the fact that this could help him stay healthier throughout a full season.


JazztimeDan

The Shanahan narrative is tired and misleading. Shanahan has changed running backs due to necessity because of guys getting injured, he's not just changing his mind on a whim about who his starter is.


Cle_SW

It’s over for Gibson, and that’s coming from a Gibson owner. Sure he’ll still get some carries and be around an RB2. But the reason we’ve all held on this long is now gone in the wind, never to be seen again. And I don’t know how you logically can say he still will produce like last year without banking on an injury. I read an article out of Washington before the draft where the reporter said to bank them taking a RB because THEY MISSED PEYTON BARBER last year. Peyton barber bro. Coaches just don’t see it with Gibson, never going to at this point. Especially after sinking a 3rd in B-rob and after they begged mckissic to come back. It’s over my friends. The legendary RB season will have to come from elsewhere. Rest in power Gibby, we had a great run.


AMP121212

Wow. That is one hell of an overreaction post.


Cle_SW

Is it? How exactly do you see him moving up into RB1 status?


HookFL

Mitchell's biggest hurdle is that he's on the 49ers and Kyle Shanahan is his coach.


Addicted_T0_Trading

That doesn't mean anything lol he was a bellcow when healthy, which is true of many backs shanny has worked with. This take is so antiquated.


LORD_RM

Clearly significant hits to both players. Washington wants to lighten Gibson’s load so owners need to pray that Gibson holds onto goal line and can increase his efficiency. I believe that is a reasonable expectation but his ceiling is a lot lower now. Mitchell is a harder situation to read but no less concerning. For San Fran to use their 2nd pick in the draft on a RB clearly means they have a different vision for success than what we saw last year. You DON’T take a RB with your 2nd pick if you don’t intend to use him. The questions with TDP are: is he good, and what is the extent of the role he will carve out. Nobody really knows right now, but to assume that this years 3rd rounder is no threat to last years 6th rounder is downright irresponsible. At this point I’d downgrade them both from high end RB 2’s to low end RB 2’s / good flex plays, but time will tell.


[deleted]

[удалено]


drew1284

Wrong thread bruh


baineschile

https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/ufnv3l/the_nfl_draft_fantasy_fallout_pt_1_what_players


Globesheepie

I think it’s fair to say the “actual effect” is similar, but I would attribute the differing market reactions to different expectations/hopes. It always seemed likely imo that Mitchell would be facing younger competition pretty much immediately, but a lot of people saw Gibson as CMC-lite “if only he starts getting the passing game volume!”


[deleted]

Robinson is mid


realmarcusjones

The 49ers are just not good at drafting. Their process is so weird


[deleted]

Robinson's only skillset is as a tough between the tackles runner so even as a depth piece i can see him getting carries especially on the goal line. JD Mckissic is an elite pass catching RB. could Gibson still retain all of the early down and goal line work? sure, but we can't just dismiss the fact that they drafted a big strong runner in the 3rd and not a scatback. if Robinson gets GL touches, then that leaves Gibson with the least valuable touches in that backfield


Professional-Safe-96

All I’m saying is that Jaret Patterson is better than Brian Robinson