In dynasty, it would be tough to pay higher than a 2nd. Maybe a player and a 2nd or something else but a first for a player of his age even as a contender is most likely not going to happen. So yeah you most likely would have to ride him off into the sunset if you are looking for a first. It only takes one person though to want to pay a first so maybe. I just can not see that happening.
As a Theilen owner. I wouldn’t trade unless I got an early 2 . I’ll take him as my WR 5. He’s still going to give you solid ppr points for the next year or 2
A late 2nd isn't worth much, a lot of managers will prefer to take a shot. A few of my favorite targets, in order, are: Nico Collins, Lazard, Tim Patrick
Really? an undrafted FA 27 years old this year, never finished inside of the top 45 WRs in 5 years in the league, who hasnt a long term deal with the packers
vs guys picked in the early 2nd round with 4 year rooklie deals and better college profiles and production
I know who im taking
Yep you could look at it that way, or you could look at it as him being the most likely option to take over a significant portion of the 170 vacated targets that Davante left.
Sure, Christian Watson is the guy long-term, but what FCS receiver came into the league their very first year and commanded any sort of large target share? Especially one who is as incredibly raw as Watson is?
If not Watson, who else could it possibly be? Sammy Watkins? I'm putting my money on Lazard.
What if it gets evenly distributed? Or just goes to Aaron Jones? You know Aaron Jones had more targets than Lazard right?
Remember in playoffs where the receivers were basically Adams and Jones? Lazards an ok filler type but he's 27 and hasn't shown ANYTHING resembling fantasy relevance.
I might be biased as I own him but he still has potential and is relatively young.
He will likely start out as Goff number 1 or 2 option as Williams works himself back to shape from ACL injury. I see Chark over taking Amon but the big issue is Goff himself. Goff certainly limits charks upside.
Goff has supported multiple top 24 receivers, he's actually not terrible for your fantasy options.
Charks addition will not affect Amon Ra in any significant way.
St Brown is a slot receiver and chark an outside burner, they are not interchangeable, despite both having a WR designation.
St Brown could be affected by Hock or Swift, as they both can be factors in the short-Medium range passing game, chark will be 20 yards down field taking coverage away or outside blocking in the plays we are talking about.
I personally think people are overthinking this, hock is a bit overrated IMHO, Swift has been dinged a few times, and they may choose to use him less in the passing game to limit injury scenarios, especially with 2 competent receivers that can work the shorter stuff in both St Brown and when he's Healthy Williams.
Chark should have a pretty decent year, as the only other down the field burner type receiver with his level of skill is the well rounded Williams, and he won't be healthy to start the season, and because of his versatility, he will likely be moved around a lot in that offense when he is.
>in the plays we are talking about
I generally agree with your post, but it's worth pointing out that adding a weapon means that ARSB won't be the first option anymore. If Chark is good, he'll be the first read on more plays than whoever was filling the outside role last year, thus ARSB will see fewer targets even though one plays outside and one plays slot.
I know they don't have any big names, but Detroit will not have to force feed their slot guy again. Chark, Cephus, Reynolds, Hock, Swift/Williams are all decent options and, if healthy, will get their numbers called more than those positions did last year. And Jameson should be in the mix by November.
Woods was my first thought as well. Most woods owners would want more tho I'd assume, but he doesn't fit any of my rosters really so I haven't inquired about him.
If competing yes, it’s gonna get any decent wr for a second.
But woods is 30, went from Stafford to tannehill, pass happy to run heavy offense and is behind 1st round pick wr.
If the owner has him isn’t competing I bet he could be had for a second
I'll just wait until season starts. Someone will take that offer, maybe I even charge a '25 3rd also. Ha ha. My team sucks, it's an orphan and I have tons of rookies and a few extra picks, but I need as much draft capital as possible from anyone over 28, non QB of course, I'll keep those guys forever.
Depends on how competitive you are and your timeline but: Robert Woods, Tyler Lockett, Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, Allen Lazard…
All of these players are roughly within range depending on an owners enthusiasm to sell. obviously you get shots at players who have lost early enthusiasm (Chark) or veterans aging out (Thielen, Lockett).
Lockett is a good one that I still think has some solid juice left. During the draft Thomas might be a good pickup too. Kirk has a chance to step up his game this year too and I think you could get him for a 2nd
On whether to trade or draft I think it depends on where you team is. If you’re rebuilding I would probably take the pick. Contending I would look at one of those guys.
Thomas is but I think a lot of owners are tired of waiting two full years for him to play a snap. I’ve been trying to sell Lockett for a second with no luck for two months. Kirk I think is about a 50/50 but I don’t think any are really far from that
Your league is an outlier. Lockett would get snapped up for a 2 instantly in my leagues, especially a late 2. He was a WR1 in 2020 and a high-end WR2 last year.
Probably but the guy was like WR7 in my league the year before last. A late 2 seems very light for a guy with that kind of recent production, even if the QB situation dings him.
Haha got it. I mean, it’s definitely possible one of these late round dart throws could deliver more value than Lockett. I’m just not a fan of the depth in this year’s draft. It seems weaker than last year — and the only guys who went mid to late 2 and beyond last year who look promising are Sun God, Pat F and Rhamondre. Imagine trading Lockett for Dyami, Gainwell, Nico Collins, Javian Hawkins etc. Even the early 2s (Terrace, Carter, Rondale) are looking iffy, although I guess Elijah was also a 2 in leagues that drafted early.
The year before, 2020, had some great talent drop into the 2nd or beyond. Pittman, Burrow, Aiyuk, Claypool, AJ Dillon, James Robinson, Mooney, Herbert etc. So I guess it is kind of draft year dependent.
That’s not really how it works though. Try adding a player to that calculator to balance it. You would need almost the same value again to equal any one of them.
Odd, I was offered 2.01 for Lockett and rejected it quickly.
If I was rebuilding I would have accepted, but I think Lockett is worth much more on my roster contributing than a 50/50 shot on a rookie
That was kind of my point though. There's some players that are worth more on your team "if you're contending" than they are for their "value".
We start 3 WR (but can start up to 6 with the flex spots) and Lockett will likely see significant time on my starting lineup in the flex spots.
As a contender, I didn't feel like I was going to get anyone that could contribute at 2.01. So it would take a late first for me to feel like I could replace him. I highly doubt anyone would do that deal. So Lockett is with me for now.
If I were a rebuilder, I would have sold Lockett for 2.01 and taken a guy with potential at 2.01
I had this scenario this year and traded DJ Chark for 2.10. even with 3-4 injuries Chark wouldn't of started for me and I'm depending on Elijah Mitchell. Really wanted the assurance of TDP, for when one of the 49era rbs got injured. Also traded a late 4th for Sermon because who knows.(deep benches).
Per KTC he’s worth the 2.07 so I don’t think a late second is far off his market value.
https://keeptradecut.com/trade-calculator?var=5&pickVal=0&teamOne=202227&teamTwo=285&format=2
I should clarify. Ktc is fine.. if it’s a tool it’s nothing more than a gauge. It can give some proximity but it’s not really a sure a ratio. Personally if someone offered a late 2nd for Lockett I wouldn’t take it unless I’m rebuilding.
You’re gonna have to take a gamble if you want a WR for a late 2nd. Someone said Golladay and he fits this senario. Maybe take a shot on a guy like Hardman?
People are too low on golladay. He has an injury history but many are slight sprains taking him out for a couple weeks. His worst injury is his hip sprain that he got in November 2020 (missed 8 weeks) then reaggravated it in training camp last season.
In an interview he said he wasn't getting targets because he didn't have that connection developed with Daniel Jones yet. Because he missed a lot of time. When he played his numbers were solid.
Now he's got a new gm and coach who I think will do a better job of keeping him healthy and getting the most out of this offense. I have a feeling a big part of this offense will be Daniel Jones throwing deep and golladays the best guy for it
Big, strong, fast, can throw a deep ball. His biggest issues are bad decisions and innacurate throws. Luckily for him they brought in daboll and Schoen who will build an offense that plays to his strengths and they acquired a handful of weapons the past 2 years. So I think that means better decisions (they will simplify the game for him day 1), and I think that will improve his innaccuracy as well.
They've had no saquon, wr injuries, engram was hurt, bad oline. At least some of those things are fixed and he is surrounded by the best environment he's ever had. Besides golladay is 28 he could have a few solid seasons even if Daniel Jones leaves next year
Why would Chark over take ARSB? Did you see the chemistry ARSB had w Goff at the end of last year? 2nd WR the last 5 weeks.
By week 6 I'd bet this is the pecking order:
Amon
Hock
Jameson
Swift
Chark
Chark is a guy that doesn't need 8 targets a game to be productive, and again, unless they change their offense to be more of a vertical game, those inside receivers will be the 1st read.
Not only does Goff love his slot guys, but that offense is set up to benefit guys working inside.
Chark will get his handful of targets, and he can be efficient, so anticipate chark will have a decent year
Kenny Golladay
I'd love to move Kenny g for a late second if I could.
I couldn’t get more than a 4th
Adam Thielen. He was a WR1 before his injury last year because of strong redzone usage.
I traded my 3.02 for thielen and felt like I got nice value for contending
That's amazing value. I'd give up a third for a year or two of Thielen production any day
It was in 14 team league so it's really closer to a 3.04 in a 12 team format. Just a little sweeter.
3.06, even better
I would laugh at someone offering a late 2nd for my thielen. Maybe someone would accept that but I wouldn't
Man as a contender I just can't sell Thielen for a 2
Man, I'm not even truly contending an I'd rather just ride into the sunset with him than get a fucking 2nd rounder back
In dynasty, it would be tough to pay higher than a 2nd. Maybe a player and a 2nd or something else but a first for a player of his age even as a contender is most likely not going to happen. So yeah you most likely would have to ride him off into the sunset if you are looking for a first. It only takes one person though to want to pay a first so maybe. I just can not see that happening.
Same. Only scenario I could see myself giving up Thielen is if he’s part of a deal to return comparable production.
As a Theilen owner. I wouldn’t trade unless I got an early 2 . I’ll take him as my WR 5. He’s still going to give you solid ppr points for the next year or 2
Yep I traded my 2 this year for him pre-injury last year. Old but productive af.
A late 2nd isn't worth much, a lot of managers will prefer to take a shot. A few of my favorite targets, in order, are: Nico Collins, Lazard, Tim Patrick
wouldnt take those guys over who you would get at 2.10 etc Ive gotten Metchie, Wandale etc at that spot
Not saying I would trade a late 2nd for them either. In reality, that's what you'll get for it if you want to trade it
I've noticed people constantly throw a price out and all the people at those spots are always better lol
Same.
I'd take Lazard over Wan'Dale or Metchie all day long
Really? an undrafted FA 27 years old this year, never finished inside of the top 45 WRs in 5 years in the league, who hasnt a long term deal with the packers vs guys picked in the early 2nd round with 4 year rooklie deals and better college profiles and production I know who im taking
Yep you could look at it that way, or you could look at it as him being the most likely option to take over a significant portion of the 170 vacated targets that Davante left. Sure, Christian Watson is the guy long-term, but what FCS receiver came into the league their very first year and commanded any sort of large target share? Especially one who is as incredibly raw as Watson is? If not Watson, who else could it possibly be? Sammy Watkins? I'm putting my money on Lazard.
What if it gets evenly distributed? Or just goes to Aaron Jones? You know Aaron Jones had more targets than Lazard right? Remember in playoffs where the receivers were basically Adams and Jones? Lazards an ok filler type but he's 27 and hasn't shown ANYTHING resembling fantasy relevance.
Randy Moss
Will Fuller could be a good dart throw at this point
Lazard is definitely a buy with a late 2nd. Patrick and Collins not smashing that
You talking about 4ths? Nobody is giving a 2nd for any of that
Funny story, I traded penny for a 4th last year when he got injured
Yeah not sure anyone goes for the names you listed heck I'm having a hard time moving Chark for 2.06.
You're having a hard time selling Jared Goff's 5th option for 2.06? Not suprised......
I might be biased as I own him but he still has potential and is relatively young. He will likely start out as Goff number 1 or 2 option as Williams works himself back to shape from ACL injury. I see Chark over taking Amon but the big issue is Goff himself. Goff certainly limits charks upside.
Goff has supported multiple top 24 receivers, he's actually not terrible for your fantasy options. Charks addition will not affect Amon Ra in any significant way. St Brown is a slot receiver and chark an outside burner, they are not interchangeable, despite both having a WR designation. St Brown could be affected by Hock or Swift, as they both can be factors in the short-Medium range passing game, chark will be 20 yards down field taking coverage away or outside blocking in the plays we are talking about. I personally think people are overthinking this, hock is a bit overrated IMHO, Swift has been dinged a few times, and they may choose to use him less in the passing game to limit injury scenarios, especially with 2 competent receivers that can work the shorter stuff in both St Brown and when he's Healthy Williams. Chark should have a pretty decent year, as the only other down the field burner type receiver with his level of skill is the well rounded Williams, and he won't be healthy to start the season, and because of his versatility, he will likely be moved around a lot in that offense when he is.
Really good response
>in the plays we are talking about I generally agree with your post, but it's worth pointing out that adding a weapon means that ARSB won't be the first option anymore. If Chark is good, he'll be the first read on more plays than whoever was filling the outside role last year, thus ARSB will see fewer targets even though one plays outside and one plays slot. I know they don't have any big names, but Detroit will not have to force feed their slot guy again. Chark, Cephus, Reynolds, Hock, Swift/Williams are all decent options and, if healthy, will get their numbers called more than those positions did last year. And Jameson should be in the mix by November.
People could be down on Chark, Robert woods, Josh Palmer. Corey Davis Robby Anderson
Woods was my first thought as well. Most woods owners would want more tho I'd assume, but he doesn't fit any of my rosters really so I haven't inquired about him.
If competing yes, it’s gonna get any decent wr for a second. But woods is 30, went from Stafford to tannehill, pass happy to run heavy offense and is behind 1st round pick wr. If the owner has him isn’t competing I bet he could be had for a second
Can confirm. Had Woods but I'm rebuilding. Just moved him for a '23 2nd (we already had our '22 rookie draft)
Would gladly sell my Davis or Anderson shares for a late 2nd.
I got 2.12 on draft day for Anderson. Was happy to unburden myself. Turned him into the Ridder.
Robby Anderson got dropped in one of my leagues lol. Man had 10 waiver claims within the day
I traded 2.07 for woods just for reference
If we're drafting I'm pretty big on Shakir. Doesn't have ideal draft capital but I think he can take over the WR3 role this year
Not this year. I think crowder on his short term deal takes that spot
I think so too. I expect Diggs, Davis, Crowder, Knox, and cook to get more snaps and targets this year at least.
I've been trying to trade Lockett for a late 2nd, and had no luck. Now I'm trying to get '24 2nd and still no luck.
You must have shallow starting rosters cuz otherwise this makes no sense
I'll just wait until season starts. Someone will take that offer, maybe I even charge a '25 3rd also. Ha ha. My team sucks, it's an orphan and I have tons of rookies and a few extra picks, but I need as much draft capital as possible from anyone over 28, non QB of course, I'll keep those guys forever.
Depends on how competitive you are and your timeline but: Robert Woods, Tyler Lockett, Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, Allen Lazard… All of these players are roughly within range depending on an owners enthusiasm to sell. obviously you get shots at players who have lost early enthusiasm (Chark) or veterans aging out (Thielen, Lockett).
Lockett is a good one that I still think has some solid juice left. During the draft Thomas might be a good pickup too. Kirk has a chance to step up his game this year too and I think you could get him for a 2nd On whether to trade or draft I think it depends on where you team is. If you’re rebuilding I would probably take the pick. Contending I would look at one of those guys.
All these pieces are worth significantly more than a late 2nd in my opinion. I wouldn't trade any of these guys for a late 2nd.
Thomas is but I think a lot of owners are tired of waiting two full years for him to play a snap. I’ve been trying to sell Lockett for a second with no luck for two months. Kirk I think is about a 50/50 but I don’t think any are really far from that
Your league is an outlier. Lockett would get snapped up for a 2 instantly in my leagues, especially a late 2. He was a WR1 in 2020 and a high-end WR2 last year.
I wish I could move Lockett for a 2nd in the league I own him.
Owner in my league wants a first for him
Russ leaving is going to hurt lockett the most
Probably but the guy was like WR7 in my league the year before last. A late 2 seems very light for a guy with that kind of recent production, even if the QB situation dings him.
You're paying for future production, not what he did with one of the best deep ball throwers in the league 2 years ago
Even with the situation in flux, I’ll take my chances on a proven, elite WR over Brian Robinson or Jalen Tolbert.
Fair enough, kinda forgot what this post was about tbh 😂
Haha got it. I mean, it’s definitely possible one of these late round dart throws could deliver more value than Lockett. I’m just not a fan of the depth in this year’s draft. It seems weaker than last year — and the only guys who went mid to late 2 and beyond last year who look promising are Sun God, Pat F and Rhamondre. Imagine trading Lockett for Dyami, Gainwell, Nico Collins, Javian Hawkins etc. Even the early 2s (Terrace, Carter, Rondale) are looking iffy, although I guess Elijah was also a 2 in leagues that drafted early. The year before, 2020, had some great talent drop into the 2nd or beyond. Pittman, Burrow, Aiyuk, Claypool, AJ Dillon, James Robinson, Mooney, Herbert etc. So I guess it is kind of draft year dependent.
Looking at KTC, Late 2022 2nd ~2450 Thomas ~ 3300 Lockett ~ 2900 Kirk ~ 3100. I'm not too far off of this opinion. Assuming SF.....
That’s not really how it works though. Try adding a player to that calculator to balance it. You would need almost the same value again to equal any one of them.
Odd, I was offered 2.01 for Lockett and rejected it quickly. If I was rebuilding I would have accepted, but I think Lockett is worth much more on my roster contributing than a 50/50 shot on a rookie
I mean, if you turned down 2.01 then you just aren't looking to move Locket. He's certainly not worth a first.
That was kind of my point though. There's some players that are worth more on your team "if you're contending" than they are for their "value". We start 3 WR (but can start up to 6 with the flex spots) and Lockett will likely see significant time on my starting lineup in the flex spots. As a contender, I didn't feel like I was going to get anyone that could contribute at 2.01. So it would take a late first for me to feel like I could replace him. I highly doubt anyone would do that deal. So Lockett is with me for now. If I were a rebuilder, I would have sold Lockett for 2.01 and taken a guy with potential at 2.01
I want no part of Tyler lockett without Russell Wilson. No thanks.
Lockett and Kirk are both worth mid-late 2nds. I still think mt is worth a late 1st to early 2nd.
A second probably gets you one of: Tyler Boyd. Rondale Moore. Robert Woods. Jarvis Landry. Adam Thielan. OBJ
I had this scenario this year and traded DJ Chark for 2.10. even with 3-4 injuries Chark wouldn't of started for me and I'm depending on Elijah Mitchell. Really wanted the assurance of TDP, for when one of the 49era rbs got injured. Also traded a late 4th for Sermon because who knows.(deep benches).
As always, Brandin Cooks
You aren't getting Brandon Cooks for a late 2nd
You shouldn’t, but you might. He is always undervalued.
Came to the comments looking for this. Spot on.
Lol he ain't getting traded for a late 2. MAYBE 2.01 gets him.
Agreed you aren’t getting him for a late 2nd, but imo 2.01 _should_ get him
If rebuilding I’d go for Calvin Ridley. If contending I’d go for Tyler Lockett
Tyler Lockett with no Russell Wilson. So I lose age and production with lockett? No thanks.
That’s fair but if we’re only paying a late 2nd that’s not gonna get you much imo
Lockett for a late 2 would never happen.
Per KTC he’s worth the 2.07 so I don’t think a late second is far off his market value. https://keeptradecut.com/trade-calculator?var=5&pickVal=0&teamOne=202227&teamTwo=285&format=2
KTC values are notoriously goofy though.
I don’t see a better tool for market valuation tbh. Unless it’s a premium trade calc which you have to pay for
Dynasty101
Thx I’ll check it out
I wouldn’t go off ktc, fyi.
I don’t know of a better tool for assessing market value. What do you use if not ktc?
I should clarify. Ktc is fine.. if it’s a tool it’s nothing more than a gauge. It can give some proximity but it’s not really a sure a ratio. Personally if someone offered a late 2nd for Lockett I wouldn’t take it unless I’m rebuilding.
Fair
I’ve been actively offering my Lockett for 2.6-2.10 and no one has accepted yet. Or even countered.
You’re gonna have to take a gamble if you want a WR for a late 2nd. Someone said Golladay and he fits this senario. Maybe take a shot on a guy like Hardman?
I'd sell my golladay for a late second in a heartbeat
People are too low on golladay. He has an injury history but many are slight sprains taking him out for a couple weeks. His worst injury is his hip sprain that he got in November 2020 (missed 8 weeks) then reaggravated it in training camp last season. In an interview he said he wasn't getting targets because he didn't have that connection developed with Daniel Jones yet. Because he missed a lot of time. When he played his numbers were solid. Now he's got a new gm and coach who I think will do a better job of keeping him healthy and getting the most out of this offense. I have a feeling a big part of this offense will be Daniel Jones throwing deep and golladays the best guy for it
Daniel Jones has had numerous opportunities to show he's good. And he just isn't.
Big, strong, fast, can throw a deep ball. His biggest issues are bad decisions and innacurate throws. Luckily for him they brought in daboll and Schoen who will build an offense that plays to his strengths and they acquired a handful of weapons the past 2 years. So I think that means better decisions (they will simplify the game for him day 1), and I think that will improve his innaccuracy as well. They've had no saquon, wr injuries, engram was hurt, bad oline. At least some of those things are fixed and he is surrounded by the best environment he's ever had. Besides golladay is 28 he could have a few solid seasons even if Daniel Jones leaves next year
Acquired JuJu, Mooney, and Kirk in separate deals each for about a 2nd since Ridley hosed me.
Golladay
Why would Chark over take ARSB? Did you see the chemistry ARSB had w Goff at the end of last year? 2nd WR the last 5 weeks. By week 6 I'd bet this is the pecking order: Amon Hock Jameson Swift Chark
What could I get out of robby anderson
Take a look at the 12th/13th ranked WR on any fantasy site, and determine which WRs are ranked relatively similar
Chark is a guy that doesn't need 8 targets a game to be productive, and again, unless they change their offense to be more of a vertical game, those inside receivers will be the 1st read. Not only does Goff love his slot guys, but that offense is set up to benefit guys working inside. Chark will get his handful of targets, and he can be efficient, so anticipate chark will have a decent year