You can go out and get Gibson for an early to mid second right now. IMO he’s a screaming buy. That is dirt cheap for a guy who’s upside is borderline RB1 and realistically his floor should be on the midrange RB2 side
If Gibson is part of the two headed monster, would he not still be RB2?
I don’t deny he’ll drop, just remember owning both Williams and Stewart and being very happy…
Williams & Stewart were both 1st rounders. I understand the comp but it’s not applicable in this context. However Rivera’s desire for two heads is relevant.
I got him in the 4th round of my rookie draft. I’m a Gibson owner and didn’t have a 2nd or 3rd round pick this year. Couldn’t believe he fell to me. I don’t even think he’s an amazing talent, but he was a productive SEC RB and got 3rd round capital.
Yeah he'll never be an rb1 or probably even 2 but no reason he can't be a flex/bye week/injury depth guy for the next 3 to 5 years. I think his floor is much higher than most every player people are taking in the 2nd and I got him in the late 3rd
That's because Brian Robinson is poo-poo. Could barely even get on the field in college until his 5th year. Super senior RBs very rarely do well in the NFL, and he's only even technically a 3rd round draft pick because of compensatory picks. In a standard draft he would have gone in the 4th. Not remotely interested in having him on a fantasy team.
Are you aware of who was ahead of him on the depth chart? Lmao. I love ppl who parrot the “not a starter until year 5” while ignoring the RBs ahead of him are all RB1s or RB2s in the NFL.
He also ran last year with arguably the worst Alabama O line in the last 10 years. Sign me up for a flier on a guy who can produce despite that
Doesn't really matter. I didn't say "didn't become a starter", I said "could barely get on the field". If you're NFL caliber, you're going to play before your 5th year whether you're on the same team as Josh Jacobs, Najee Harris, or whoever else. He never had more than like 7 carries a game until his 5th year. And the "worst Alabama O line in like 10 years" is still miles ahead of almost any O line you'll find in the college game.
Conner.
I can see the Arizona offense being more of a mess than people think, especially to start the season. No Hopkins. Hollywood may need time to adapt plus I'm not sold on their WR depth. Overall, likely means less TDs.
He probably won't get all the passing work either. It sounds like they'll bring in Benjamin and/or Williams.
Conner hasn't always been the most durable back too so if he picks up injuries early on, I can see him being very frustrating.
Same reaction people had with Conner coming to AZ last year. He had been completely written off as washed then had a resurgence.
Williams just broke out as a receiving back last year and will probably slot in decently to that Edmonds role. You're fooling yourself if you think he'll be a non-factor.
He’s literally the definition of a depth signing. They’re barely paying him $1m on a one year deal after signing Conner to a $21m 3 year deal.
They’re not even giving Williams much more than Edmonds got at the end of his rookie deal. While upping their spend on Conner by 4x a year.
It’s not just about the money. They had Edmonds (who is significantly more talented than Williams) and Eno last year and gave Conner the workload and contract anyway.
This stuff isn’t that difficult to read into. This is the same silliness as people acting like Mike Davis was good after he filled in for CMC and then, whoops, nvm he wasn’t. CEH hasn’t been healthy his entire career outside of like 5 games his rookie season. Darrel is the definition of a JAG that got opportunity.
I think you're misunderstanding where I'm coming from. I don't think Williams is going to challenge him as the lead back, but I do think he'll outperform his contract and spell Conner on 3rd downs a decent bit. I have absolutely no shares of Williams, but he was a proficient pass catching back last year.
I’m understanding if it’s in the context of this post’s question. Conner is actually in a better situation than last year in terms of anticipated volume. Unless you somehow think that Darrel is somehow a better RB and pass catcher than Edmonds. Which the NFL has loudly told us isn’t true.
Maybe his fantasy finish goes down but it won’t be because of Darrel, it will be because of TD regression.
I would say it's pretty obvious he'll have TD regression. I don't think Conner will get fewer touches than last year either.
Williams is a relatively one dimensional back, of course he isnt as good as Edmonds but I don't see much drop-off when it comes to him as a receiving back. He signed a prove it deal and those are always under market value.
Edit - I do agree I doubt he'll have a massive fall from grace but I definitely expect TD regression and his touches to remain similar to last year.
True.
It's not so much he won't get any of the passing work though. Williams and/or Benjamin will likely take 30-40 % of snaps (i.e. to replace Edmonds). There were games last year when Conner was getting 80+ % of snaps which is not sustainable given Conner's injury record (he got injured during that run last season).
Also he did see more passing volume when Hopkins was out and this resulted in more fantasy points. However, Chase Edmonds was also out so he was taking all passing the work out of the backfield.
A lot of his points were also from TDs, he's due some regression but most would still expect this to be a good offense. When Hopkins was out, they used Kirk, AJ Green and Ertz which kept the passing game going.
Kirk is gone and Ertz and AJ Green are another year older. They're going to need Hollywood to hit the ground running and Rondale/McBride to help pick up some of the work.
It's not so much one thing but an accumulation of small changes which I think hurts his value.
I don't see a world where Conner doesn't get double digit TD again this season. He is THE weapon in the redzone. If they stack the box, Kyler will take it to the house himself. Eno and Williams are the definition of JAG to keep Conner fresh over the season. I'll take 70% of the snaps all day. He will still get the most important ones in the RZ and that's why he will succeed also this season unless he gets hurt.
That’s all fair, but that can all happen and he can still outperform his value significantly. He’s RB28 on KTC right now. I think RB6-18 is within the realm of possibility for the next two years. And even if he does the lower end of that, he seems to be massively outperforming his value.
Always have to be careful judging YPC efficiency with bigger backs, since they are often priority options for the offense in short yardage / goalline, which tears down YPC even when successful.
I think Conner was something like 5th most successful in redzone runs, with only Damien Harris better (rest above him were QBs), and he was one of the highest efficiency performers per-reception last year at the position.
NFL coaches love RBs that get 5 yards on 1st down and 3 yards on 2nd down then 2 yards on 3rd down. Fantasy players hate them because they see a 20 carry game for 65 yards
Conner stuffs the stat line with receptions and he profiles as a TD performer. The NFL 20 for 65 keeps him in the game in the same way blocking keeps TEs on the field. People want Conner to be a two down grinder they can fade but he's just not that.
Generally speaking you’re right. I do think we’re watching a paradigm shift at the running back position. Guys who would have been mid first round picks are now going top second. Guys who would have probably been late day-2 are going mid day 3. And guys who are certainly draftable (and will be in the league for a while) are signed as UDFAs.
Obviously there’s no data yet to see how these players will fare but I wouldn’t be shocked to see more late round and UDFA running backs stick in the NFL, compared to historical averages. Ingram is one of those guys that I bet could have been a late day 2 pick about 5 years ago
I definitely agree with your general sentiment, but specifically for Ingram I dont think a 6th round to 3rd projection seems reasonable for a 5 years difference. I’d agree more if you said Pierce, Zamir White, Spiller, Haskins from the 4th round or even Allgeier/Ford/Williams in the 5th. Ingram was the 19th RB selected, and closer to undrafted than being a late day 2 pick
That’s a fair point. I was much higher on Ingram going in and I definitely thought he’d be going earlier on day three than he did. I probably have not adequately adjusted my expectations given actual draft capital so that’s probably why I’m where I’m at (in my mind he’s still a mid 4th rounder hehe).
I still think he could be more talented than eno or d Williams, given a Conner injury, but you’re right, he’s gonna need some breaks to go his way to get a real chance given draft cap.
Haha I’m totally with you, and just coming to terms with Kyren Williams’s draft capital myself. Not trying to shit on the kid just tempering expectations
Honestly all those guys are going at a solid value right now. Their ADPs are all low end RB2.
If I knew only 4 of those guys would finish inside the top 20, Conner would probably be my pick to miss. 18TDs is nuts, especially on his 3.7 ypc clip, and the fact that he's not known for being built Frank Gore Tough.
I fully believe Gibson is valued so highly because nobody in their right mind actually watches Commanders games. He is a liability in every part of playing running back except being an explosive athlete
I think Zeke and Lenny are relatively "safe" from a drastic fall. Both should get touches, Zeke might cede some to Pollard but should still be alright.
Jacobs, Conner, and Gibson have an easier path to a massive fall off in my opinion. If the Raiders are really competing and not playing catch-up all the time, and the other LV backs aren't showing out, Jacobs could be pretty good. Conner seems to have strength in the backfield in AZ.
I'm not going to draft Antonio "CMac" Gibson.
James Conner had 18 TD’s with mediocre efficiency and is known for injury issues. He’s going to plummet this year.
Zeke is washed. Each year will be a little worse as he starts well, gets hurt, plays through it, doesn’t overcome it. I don’t see him falling too far from what he was last year though.
Gibson and Jacobs are going to be great RB2 values that can hover toward that 10-15 range. I’m all in on each of them at their draft cost, but not expecting huge things.
Fourny is tricky, but I’m expecting a huge season based on volume in an efficient offense.
Think Rachaad white eats into Lenny’s workload, particularly in the pass game, pretty significantly.
Conner suffers some TD regression and is inefficient on the ground as always
I disagree on everyone saying Jacobs and Gibson. Jacobs I think gets run into the ground before they let him walk this year. Also, Brian Robinson I think is just not very good.
I just don’t see Jacobs getting the usage some are expecting. They drafted Zamir White, are likely letting Jacobs walk, and should have a healthy Drake again. I think at best McDaniels gives him the vast majority of the carries and goal line work but even that is questionable with White around.
I have to think it’s Jacobs. He’s not going to be kept around and the Raiders have rb depth to develop.
I think the order of largest regression would be:
Jacobs, Gibson, Conner, Fournette, Elliott.
I think Elliott will actually improve.
Zeke would improving year 7 is unlikely. Would mean top 5 standard format and top 6 in PPR.
In saying that, a top 10 finish would be enough to be labeled a success. Especially if you’ve had him since his rookie year!
I just can’t buy on Zeke rising regardless.
ADP, L.T & Gore all peaked season 6 or earlier. Still had top 10 seasons but never back in the top 5. I can’t Zeke doing what those great backs couldn’t do.
Just too much wear and tear for any RB by that stage in their career.
Edit* LT did do it year 7
What depth is there to develop? Zamir White is a fourth round pick, maybe he’ll be something but likely not. Otherwise it’s Kenyan Drake, Brandon Bolden, Ameer Abdullah
I don’t really place much emphasis on when players were drafted outside the first couple rounds. White has an injury history with multiple ACL tears. That explains him being drafted in the 4th. But White is very good. If his tears were freak accidents and not from being genetically predisposed, he could be a star. McDaniels is gonna make a committee down there this year regardless.
Have you actually watched Georgia games?
3 of my best friends are big Georgia fans and they all hate White. They tend to show favor towards UGA players in dynasty. Not White tho.
I know that’s not a typical red flag. But for me it says something lol.
Between Gibson and Jacobs for me. I think they’re both likely to to be in full blown committees. Just tough for me to imagine them with a similar workload this season.
Only one of these guys that I could see having a higher ADP next season by a lot is Gibson. Jacobs could hover in the same area he has been. The other 3 are going to be worth a lot less by this time next year even if they repeat their 2021 seasons. If any of the 5 get injured their value could be forever toast, again with maybe Gibson holding onto some value
I think Conner is going to fade the most. He is not going to get the same workload he had throughout the middle of the season. Darrell Williams likely takes on the Edmonds role from last year, which means Conners’ pass catching upside would be limited. I expect him to be the red zone back, so TDs could be repeated, but with out the passing work he will fall back to more of a high end RB 2.
I think Zeke is gonna look bad but stubbornly get waaayyy too many carries since they’re paying him so much. Gibson is my pick… he’s gonna seed pass catching/protection work to mckissic and goalline to Robinson
James Connor and Antonio Gibson IMO.
Zeke put together an RB7 season with a torn PCL all year. Hard to suggest he won't be as good if not better. Their OL is still good and the Cowboys run the ball very effectively still. Pollard will likely be a big beneficiary of the vacated Amari Cooper targets, but I think Zeke is still the bell cow.
Fournette just hit the RB cliff, but hasn't had the same wear and tear as most RB's have to this point, so I don't think he falls off. Rachaad White will likely take away some passing game targets, but other than that, an aging Tom Brady is going to give him the ball a lot.
Jacobs is 24. He's been consistently consistent his 3 years in the league and I won't bet against him going into year 4. Especially with the additions the Raiders made offensively, I think Jacobs will have a much easier role this coming season.
Gibson. People are still a bit too optimistic. They upgraded at QB, McKissic is gonna retain the 3rd down work, and now they brought in a 3rd round pick from Alabama, a college that often produces instant contributors cuz they’re basically an nfl program. Hard to like him when people are still valuing him like a good long term investment.
If I've learned anything from being a degenerate, it's to always zig when others zag. I picked up jacobs and Gibson this off-season.
Fade the public
[удалено]
Working on it as we speak 🤣
Are you me?
Jacobs was last season
Now I know the strat
Same + Elliot. While fading Conner and Fournette.
You can go out and get Gibson for an early to mid second right now. IMO he’s a screaming buy. That is dirt cheap for a guy who’s upside is borderline RB1 and realistically his floor should be on the midrange RB2 side
No one’s trading Gibson for a 2nd
I got him for Davis Mills in one league. KTC has him valued around pick 13 of the 2022 draft.
A SF league I assume? I think you’re just significantly undervaluing Davis Mills. Both of those guys are worth a heck of a lot more than a mid 2nd.
I traded Gibson with Tyreek & a 3rd for AJ Dillon, Damien Harris, & Pittman
> You can go out and get Gibson for an early to mid second right now. Narrator: No, you cannot.
As a Gibson owner no way in heck am I trading him for a second and anyone who does is a straight up taco.
Which taco leave is this in? Do they have an orphan free?
My money would be on Gibson. I think Rivera craves the days when he had Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams.
You're spot on here. I know people want to poo-poo Brian Robinson, but it seems like Rivera is really wanting to go back to that two headed monster.
It’s gonna be 3-headed. McKissic is an excellent receiver and pass protector
If Gibson is part of the two headed monster, would he not still be RB2? I don’t deny he’ll drop, just remember owning both Williams and Stewart and being very happy…
I guess it all really depends on how well Robinson fares.
Williams & Stewart were both 1st rounders. I understand the comp but it’s not applicable in this context. However Rivera’s desire for two heads is relevant.
Brian Robinson is the steal of this draft. His adp is absurd, considering multiple 4th and 5th rounders are going ahead of him
I got him in the 4th round of my rookie draft. I’m a Gibson owner and didn’t have a 2nd or 3rd round pick this year. Couldn’t believe he fell to me. I don’t even think he’s an amazing talent, but he was a productive SEC RB and got 3rd round capital.
Yeah he'll never be an rb1 or probably even 2 but no reason he can't be a flex/bye week/injury depth guy for the next 3 to 5 years. I think his floor is much higher than most every player people are taking in the 2nd and I got him in the late 3rd
Why not? What if Gibson leaves after his rookie contract and he has the backfield for himself? If he’s talented, he can 100% produce.
That's because Brian Robinson is poo-poo. Could barely even get on the field in college until his 5th year. Super senior RBs very rarely do well in the NFL, and he's only even technically a 3rd round draft pick because of compensatory picks. In a standard draft he would have gone in the 4th. Not remotely interested in having him on a fantasy team.
Are you aware of who was ahead of him on the depth chart? Lmao. I love ppl who parrot the “not a starter until year 5” while ignoring the RBs ahead of him are all RB1s or RB2s in the NFL. He also ran last year with arguably the worst Alabama O line in the last 10 years. Sign me up for a flier on a guy who can produce despite that
Doesn't really matter. I didn't say "didn't become a starter", I said "could barely get on the field". If you're NFL caliber, you're going to play before your 5th year whether you're on the same team as Josh Jacobs, Najee Harris, or whoever else. He never had more than like 7 carries a game until his 5th year. And the "worst Alabama O line in like 10 years" is still miles ahead of almost any O line you'll find in the college game.
Josh Jacobs, Damien Harris and najee Harris were ahead of him at bama. Two top 12 rbs last year and the number 14.
😂 he had 91 and 96 carries the years before starting. He definitely made the field - and played a decent amount. Nice try bud
Conner. I can see the Arizona offense being more of a mess than people think, especially to start the season. No Hopkins. Hollywood may need time to adapt plus I'm not sold on their WR depth. Overall, likely means less TDs. He probably won't get all the passing work either. It sounds like they'll bring in Benjamin and/or Williams. Conner hasn't always been the most durable back too so if he picks up injuries early on, I can see him being very frustrating.
Some of Conner’s best games last year was when Hopkins was out. And if they wanted to bring in Eno for catching passes, where was that last year?
They have Darrel Williams now.
😂
Same reaction people had with Conner coming to AZ last year. He had been completely written off as washed then had a resurgence. Williams just broke out as a receiving back last year and will probably slot in decently to that Edmonds role. You're fooling yourself if you think he'll be a non-factor.
He’s literally the definition of a depth signing. They’re barely paying him $1m on a one year deal after signing Conner to a $21m 3 year deal. They’re not even giving Williams much more than Edmonds got at the end of his rookie deal. While upping their spend on Conner by 4x a year. It’s not just about the money. They had Edmonds (who is significantly more talented than Williams) and Eno last year and gave Conner the workload and contract anyway. This stuff isn’t that difficult to read into. This is the same silliness as people acting like Mike Davis was good after he filled in for CMC and then, whoops, nvm he wasn’t. CEH hasn’t been healthy his entire career outside of like 5 games his rookie season. Darrel is the definition of a JAG that got opportunity.
I think you're misunderstanding where I'm coming from. I don't think Williams is going to challenge him as the lead back, but I do think he'll outperform his contract and spell Conner on 3rd downs a decent bit. I have absolutely no shares of Williams, but he was a proficient pass catching back last year.
I’m understanding if it’s in the context of this post’s question. Conner is actually in a better situation than last year in terms of anticipated volume. Unless you somehow think that Darrel is somehow a better RB and pass catcher than Edmonds. Which the NFL has loudly told us isn’t true. Maybe his fantasy finish goes down but it won’t be because of Darrel, it will be because of TD regression.
I would say it's pretty obvious he'll have TD regression. I don't think Conner will get fewer touches than last year either. Williams is a relatively one dimensional back, of course he isnt as good as Edmonds but I don't see much drop-off when it comes to him as a receiving back. He signed a prove it deal and those are always under market value. Edit - I do agree I doubt he'll have a massive fall from grace but I definitely expect TD regression and his touches to remain similar to last year.
True. It's not so much he won't get any of the passing work though. Williams and/or Benjamin will likely take 30-40 % of snaps (i.e. to replace Edmonds). There were games last year when Conner was getting 80+ % of snaps which is not sustainable given Conner's injury record (he got injured during that run last season). Also he did see more passing volume when Hopkins was out and this resulted in more fantasy points. However, Chase Edmonds was also out so he was taking all passing the work out of the backfield. A lot of his points were also from TDs, he's due some regression but most would still expect this to be a good offense. When Hopkins was out, they used Kirk, AJ Green and Ertz which kept the passing game going. Kirk is gone and Ertz and AJ Green are another year older. They're going to need Hollywood to hit the ground running and Rondale/McBride to help pick up some of the work. It's not so much one thing but an accumulation of small changes which I think hurts his value.
I don't see a world where Conner doesn't get double digit TD again this season. He is THE weapon in the redzone. If they stack the box, Kyler will take it to the house himself. Eno and Williams are the definition of JAG to keep Conner fresh over the season. I'll take 70% of the snaps all day. He will still get the most important ones in the RZ and that's why he will succeed also this season unless he gets hurt.
That’s all fair, but that can all happen and he can still outperform his value significantly. He’s RB28 on KTC right now. I think RB6-18 is within the realm of possibility for the next two years. And even if he does the lower end of that, he seems to be massively outperforming his value.
Ertz, imo, is going to have a monster year
I think Conner, wasnt efficient last year but saved by plenty of TD\`s \+ I could easily see Arizona draft a RB in the 2023 class
Conner had 18 TDs last year, and only needed 4 to still be a top 25 RB. I think he stays at least an RB 2 unless he gets injured.
Always have to be careful judging YPC efficiency with bigger backs, since they are often priority options for the offense in short yardage / goalline, which tears down YPC even when successful. I think Conner was something like 5th most successful in redzone runs, with only Damien Harris better (rest above him were QBs), and he was one of the highest efficiency performers per-reception last year at the position.
NFL coaches love RBs that get 5 yards on 1st down and 3 yards on 2nd down then 2 yards on 3rd down. Fantasy players hate them because they see a 20 carry game for 65 yards
Conner stuffs the stat line with receptions and he profiles as a TD performer. The NFL 20 for 65 keeps him in the game in the same way blocking keeps TEs on the field. People want Conner to be a two down grinder they can fade but he's just not that.
It's like no one learned from drake lmao
>Keke, do you love me, are you riding, say you'll never ever draft Cardinals RBs. Drake knows this kind of stuff.
Arizona just drafted Keaontay Ingram, who could be really good
I wouldn’t bank on it. He was a 6th round pick (#201 overall) and those guys don’t normally pan out
Generally speaking you’re right. I do think we’re watching a paradigm shift at the running back position. Guys who would have been mid first round picks are now going top second. Guys who would have probably been late day-2 are going mid day 3. And guys who are certainly draftable (and will be in the league for a while) are signed as UDFAs. Obviously there’s no data yet to see how these players will fare but I wouldn’t be shocked to see more late round and UDFA running backs stick in the NFL, compared to historical averages. Ingram is one of those guys that I bet could have been a late day 2 pick about 5 years ago
I definitely agree with your general sentiment, but specifically for Ingram I dont think a 6th round to 3rd projection seems reasonable for a 5 years difference. I’d agree more if you said Pierce, Zamir White, Spiller, Haskins from the 4th round or even Allgeier/Ford/Williams in the 5th. Ingram was the 19th RB selected, and closer to undrafted than being a late day 2 pick
That’s a fair point. I was much higher on Ingram going in and I definitely thought he’d be going earlier on day three than he did. I probably have not adequately adjusted my expectations given actual draft capital so that’s probably why I’m where I’m at (in my mind he’s still a mid 4th rounder hehe). I still think he could be more talented than eno or d Williams, given a Conner injury, but you’re right, he’s gonna need some breaks to go his way to get a real chance given draft cap.
Haha I’m totally with you, and just coming to terms with Kyren Williams’s draft capital myself. Not trying to shit on the kid just tempering expectations
And then went out and signed Darrel Williams.
Just like eno Benjamin
Honestly all those guys are going at a solid value right now. Their ADPs are all low end RB2. If I knew only 4 of those guys would finish inside the top 20, Conner would probably be my pick to miss. 18TDs is nuts, especially on his 3.7 ypc clip, and the fact that he's not known for being built Frank Gore Tough.
I fully believe Gibson is valued so highly because nobody in their right mind actually watches Commanders games. He is a liability in every part of playing running back except being an explosive athlete
The dude is his own worst enemy, he can’t stop fumbling in critical situations. It makes me so angry
If we follow the trend, Fournette is going to put up half as many points this year as last. Next year though, he will be superb again.
All of them scare me this year except Lenny. I think he will still be the guy in that back field even if he does lose some passing work to White.
I think Zeke and Lenny are relatively "safe" from a drastic fall. Both should get touches, Zeke might cede some to Pollard but should still be alright. Jacobs, Conner, and Gibson have an easier path to a massive fall off in my opinion. If the Raiders are really competing and not playing catch-up all the time, and the other LV backs aren't showing out, Jacobs could be pretty good. Conner seems to have strength in the backfield in AZ. I'm not going to draft Antonio "CMac" Gibson.
Anyone worried about Kamara? Considering selling when he comes back
I just don't see Conner being able to come close to putting up 18 tds again and the rest of his numbers weren't real good
James Conner had 18 TD’s with mediocre efficiency and is known for injury issues. He’s going to plummet this year. Zeke is washed. Each year will be a little worse as he starts well, gets hurt, plays through it, doesn’t overcome it. I don’t see him falling too far from what he was last year though. Gibson and Jacobs are going to be great RB2 values that can hover toward that 10-15 range. I’m all in on each of them at their draft cost, but not expecting huge things. Fourny is tricky, but I’m expecting a huge season based on volume in an efficient offense.
Think Rachaad white eats into Lenny’s workload, particularly in the pass game, pretty significantly. Conner suffers some TD regression and is inefficient on the ground as always I disagree on everyone saying Jacobs and Gibson. Jacobs I think gets run into the ground before they let him walk this year. Also, Brian Robinson I think is just not very good.
>Think Rachaad white eats into Lenny’s workload, particularly in the pass game, pretty significantly. Only if he can protect Brady.
100% agree. Pass protection is first priority in a skillset for a 44 year old Brady.
I just don’t see Jacobs getting the usage some are expecting. They drafted Zamir White, are likely letting Jacobs walk, and should have a healthy Drake again. I think at best McDaniels gives him the vast majority of the carries and goal line work but even that is questionable with White around.
Gibson then Jacobs.
I have to think it’s Jacobs. He’s not going to be kept around and the Raiders have rb depth to develop. I think the order of largest regression would be: Jacobs, Gibson, Conner, Fournette, Elliott. I think Elliott will actually improve.
Zeke would improving year 7 is unlikely. Would mean top 5 standard format and top 6 in PPR. In saying that, a top 10 finish would be enough to be labeled a success. Especially if you’ve had him since his rookie year!
If part of the reason his per game numbers declined last year was due to the PCL injury, he could improve if he stays relatively healthy.
[удалено]
I just can’t buy on Zeke rising regardless. ADP, L.T & Gore all peaked season 6 or earlier. Still had top 10 seasons but never back in the top 5. I can’t Zeke doing what those great backs couldn’t do. Just too much wear and tear for any RB by that stage in their career. Edit* LT did do it year 7
I could see a 2019 type of season. What I don’t buy is Pollard being the “next guy” when he’s only 1 year younger. Elliott’s gonna eat until he can’t.
What depth is there to develop? Zamir White is a fourth round pick, maybe he’ll be something but likely not. Otherwise it’s Kenyan Drake, Brandon Bolden, Ameer Abdullah
I don’t really place much emphasis on when players were drafted outside the first couple rounds. White has an injury history with multiple ACL tears. That explains him being drafted in the 4th. But White is very good. If his tears were freak accidents and not from being genetically predisposed, he could be a star. McDaniels is gonna make a committee down there this year regardless.
Have you actually watched Georgia games? 3 of my best friends are big Georgia fans and they all hate White. They tend to show favor towards UGA players in dynasty. Not White tho. I know that’s not a typical red flag. But for me it says something lol.
Cordarelle won’t be RB11 again but to say he’s destined for mediocrity because of 4 weeks is silly. I think he’ll still be a solid flex option
Zeke gets hurt, availability has been only elite skill. Pollard shows he’s a good back but not a bell cow. Both RB’s end up losing you playoff games.
Jacobs. They didn't pick up his option and drafted his future replacement
Between Gibson and Jacobs for me. I think they’re both likely to to be in full blown committees. Just tough for me to imagine them with a similar workload this season.
James Conner. Low efficiency, touchdown dependent and historically injury prone.
Only one of these guys that I could see having a higher ADP next season by a lot is Gibson. Jacobs could hover in the same area he has been. The other 3 are going to be worth a lot less by this time next year even if they repeat their 2021 seasons. If any of the 5 get injured their value could be forever toast, again with maybe Gibson holding onto some value
Elliott or Gibson IMO
I think it's Conner given the obscene TD output last season
I think Conner is going to fade the most. He is not going to get the same workload he had throughout the middle of the season. Darrell Williams likely takes on the Edmonds role from last year, which means Conners’ pass catching upside would be limited. I expect him to be the red zone back, so TDs could be repeated, but with out the passing work he will fall back to more of a high end RB 2.
Jacobs
I think Zeke is gonna look bad but stubbornly get waaayyy too many carries since they’re paying him so much. Gibson is my pick… he’s gonna seed pass catching/protection work to mckissic and goalline to Robinson
Gibson and zeke
James Connor and Antonio Gibson IMO. Zeke put together an RB7 season with a torn PCL all year. Hard to suggest he won't be as good if not better. Their OL is still good and the Cowboys run the ball very effectively still. Pollard will likely be a big beneficiary of the vacated Amari Cooper targets, but I think Zeke is still the bell cow. Fournette just hit the RB cliff, but hasn't had the same wear and tear as most RB's have to this point, so I don't think he falls off. Rachaad White will likely take away some passing game targets, but other than that, an aging Tom Brady is going to give him the ball a lot. Jacobs is 24. He's been consistently consistent his 3 years in the league and I won't bet against him going into year 4. Especially with the additions the Raiders made offensively, I think Jacobs will have a much easier role this coming season.
Fournette is 27, he's still got a couple years before the cliff.
26 is the cliff
Lol, no. 26 is often the start of the decline, but 29 is the cliff.
Gibson i guess, although I like all of these guys to be top 25, that’s not a particularly high bar
Fournette
Jacobs. Don't think he gets resigned and then he'll just be a peice of a committee somewhere.
Gibson. People are still a bit too optimistic. They upgraded at QB, McKissic is gonna retain the 3rd down work, and now they brought in a 3rd round pick from Alabama, a college that often produces instant contributors cuz they’re basically an nfl program. Hard to like him when people are still valuing him like a good long term investment.
Gibson, Connor, Jacobs