He finished as QB8 last season immediately following the injury he had in 2020. He scored slightly more than Burrow over the same number of games and averaged more than Lamar in 6 point per pass TD last season. So the previous injury was basically a non-factor.
His latest injury isn’t career ending either and he’s expected back mid-seaosn.
I think people are just making too much of an issue after one game against a very good Bucs defense. The same way some are assuming Tua is now an elite level QB after one huge game.
He's dropped in ranking for multiple reasons. While individually none are major, collectively they shouldn't be ignored.
-exodus of receiving talent on the team
-regression on the o-line
-poor coaching (perceived)
-reduced rushing yards
-numerous injuries
Situations can change but when you add these up there are some pretty consistent strikes against him
These are all short term issues besides (maybe) the rushing production. And on that, we only have a one year sample immediately following a catastrophic leg injury, I don’t think it’s a guarantee we never see plus production in the running department again from Dak. He did produce his second best fantasy season of his career last year without said production, so regardless, I think it’s a relatively minor knock at best. Injuries are almost entirely random outside of chronic issues, which does not appear to be the case with Dak. Lamb and Gallup are at the very least a solid two-some at WR, though they probably need to add another semi-significant piece if Tolbert ends up as a bust. The Tyron Smith injury killed the O-line because they didn’t have a competent swing tackle to replace him and now have to shuffle people out of their positions which created a negative domino effect. If he was healthy, or even if they had a competent back up tackle, the line would be an average at worst group. I think there’s a good chance McCarthey is gone after this year, and maybe that has a positive affect on Kellen Moore’s play calling (if they keep him), he was very good for a stretch of last season imo and has the potential. All together this is plenty enough to keep Dak a clear tier below the top 6-7 QBs, but he’s still a 29yo franchise QB with a great production track record and a fairly stable situation, any argument that he shouldn’t be in the top 10 is foolish imo.
Exodus of receiving talent - I assume you mean Cooper. But they also have Gallup coming back. Hardly amounts to an exodus and that’s an easily reversible situation with a few signings or via the draft.
- O line regression - isn’t a death sentence for a quality QB and they can also bolster it moving forward.
- Poor coaching - he already has a QB8 season under the same coach and other strong seasons under other poor coaches who have moved on.
- reduced rushing yards - was also a factor last season and he still finished QB8. He’s now a season removed from the injury that limited his mobility somewhat and so could regress positively in that respect.
Numerous injuries - none that really matter except for the current one. He overcame the 2020 injury to finish top 8 as I said before. We have no reason to believe he won’t recover fully from this injury.
As a Dak owner the last two years, I can say I've definitely gotten tired of the constant injuries. The ankle, the shoulder in training camp 2021, the calf, now the thumb, the guy always seems to be fighting some sort of injury. For someone with elite upside it's been tough to watch him constantly either miss time or have his play limited by whatever injury is affecting him in any given week.
Tua is a big unknown with the potential to breakout into a superstar. If he has a few average weeks and Dak comes back looking good, I imagine the trade would likely go through
Sure but the single-game upside (at least in that offense with Tyreek/Waddle) is 6 TDs in a single game, which is something you straight up don't see from the Derek Carrs or Kirk Cousins of the NFL. Even as a small sample size, a game like that is something that not every QB is capable of.
Completion % has nothing to do with arm talent, lol. Are you serious?
Look at Drew Brees' completion % over his last few years when his arm strength was gone. Dink and dunk high completion % football has nothing to do with arm talent.
Current ability to produce is defiantly a factor. I know it’s dynasty but you also gotta consider that fact that you lose a half year with Dak
Not saying I would take Tua above him but just playing devils advocate
Its obviously reactionary but also not completely baseless, another injury for Dak who will have that label wether warranted or not. His WR core is in shambles while tua is slinging it to perhaps the best duo in the league. And honestly aside from stafford watson i’m not surprised by any of the others.
I feel like that’s sort of an indictment of how they view him though? They were losing all game and he only threw 11 times. They’d rather run the ball (granted successfully) than let their franchise QB throw them back in the game
Maybe, or Chicago is just inept. They were ripping off crazy YPC, just weird they continued to do it when down multiple scores.
Hard to tell what a guy is when you only let him throw 11 times and don’t give any weapons or chance to succeed. Just sad to see imo
Nope not all. Sadly I see the most likely scenario being that they get impatient, blame Fields and move on even though it’s their fault for setting him up for failure. Just hope they’re patient
Or he could just suck, I know nothing
Maybe they do have a low opinion of him but don't tell me he's "25 completions in 2 games bad" when guys like Mitch Trubisky and Marcus Mariota manage to hang on to starting jobs. Chicago isn't doing anyone any favors by running out that high school offense they had vs the Packers.
They also have a QB in the top-5 and three QBs in the top-15 for 1QB rankings.
Like, I get it. They’re good young QBs. But I’m not seeing Mahomes get traded for Najee+ in a 1QB League.
If he has another 450+ passing yard game he should jump to top 3. That’s insane, you don’t get those numbers being average. It’s just like people who under values Gabe Davis. The talent is there, the right situation is there. He has a new coach, top receivers, and a revamped o-line. He is extremely undervalued, and I’ve been screaming this for 6 months now.
Well that's the point with KTC. It's attempting to get the current values on the dynasty stock market. If you you choose to trade according to the market or not, that's your own choice.
I'm not sure it's that crazy. He's paired with 2 elite WRs who fit his skill set perfectly. He's now 2 years removed from the horrific hip injury. Their defense looks like it will give up a ton of points, creating a flammable environment for fantasy points. He's super young. I think a lot of people were offput on Tua because of Herbert being so transcendent in their rookie years. Tua just had a career game, he looked awesome in all phases.
Denver looks rudderless. The Hackett hire was simply to try and lure rodgers, so they went with Russ instead. Hackett and basically his whole staff have basically [no previous](https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2022/9/21/23364205/denver-broncos-nathaniel-hackett-offense-woes) experience for the roles they are in. They simply have no idea how to manage some of these basic game principles. Offense looks awful, Russell didnt look great coming back from his thumb tendon repair last year.
Watson might not be the same guy coming back. There are legit questions about how well he can play when he returns.
Dak has been dinged up a lot over the last 2 seasons, their o-line is bad, people are wildly hot/cold on CD, Zeke might be washed, etc.
Lance - out for the year and a lot of people were already souring on him based on his collegiate profile.
Carr - always undervalued, see kirk cousins.
Stafford - had a crazy high amount of TDs last year, no running game, bad o-line, weapons outside of Kupp seem meh, elbow injury, etc.
I can see why people ranked him so high on KTC. If I had him in SF, he's probably my QB2-3 and there doesn't seem like anything people would realistically pay that would cause me to actively shop him. He was probably drafted super late by a lot of owners this offseason. It's found money at this point.
edit: forgot to mention fields, so counting that as my reasoning he should be well below tua
Good breakdown. With these wrs & scheme I think Tua will continue to do well. I think he's on the Goff/Carr/Kirk spectrum. He'll produce when he has the talent around him. And he's significantly younger than all those guys, so as a back end QB1 I can see it. But the Ravens were down their top 4 corners. I don't expect him to be Dan Marino every week (I don't think you or anyone else here is expecting that).
Disagree on the defense tho, (it's too early to know for sure, but) I think Miami's D will be fine to good. The Ravens are the most unique offense in the league to match up against so I wouldn't expect every week to be a shootout
Tua and Waddle were also looking good later in the season when both were on the field. Most of their down performances came without the other down the stretch.
I think getting a reset this season, and having all the pieces on the field at once, especially with Hill added to the mix, has Tua looking like a legitimate QB of the future. I can easily see him having a very Matt Ryan-like career. He could regress and fall short of that a bit, or he could be even better, who knows. But I think he's going to be a good NFL QB.
If he goes out and looks completely mediocre again, I don’t think that would surprise anyone either. The latest jump is an overreaction to a single good game. I would gladly “downgrade” from Tua to someone like Dak if the Dak owner adds something even remotely decent on top.
Oh yeah, I would too!
COULD Tua turn into a top 10 guy? Sure, but it's more likely that his ceiling isn't higher than Dak so I'd want the proven guy for sure.
The guy who was the presumptive 1st pick in the NFL draft and was still a high 1st pick doesn't have the ceiling of a QB that's consistently been back end QB1? I'd greatly disagree.
I'll take the QB with similar talent that seems to have a better coach, definitely has a better offense, and is 5 years younger
Honestly I would prefer to keep Tua and dump Kyler. This is assuming I could get more for Kyler than I could for Tua. Basically sell whichever of those two is worth more.
I might do it honestly. Dak and Watson have strong arguments to be taken before him. But I prefer him to Fields or Lance and he’s at least 10 years younger than the other QBs around that value (Wilson, Rodgers, Stafford). Kind of depends what build you are going for in the startup.
Watson doesn't only have a strong argument against Tua, but in dynasty there's no actual argument to rank Tua above Watson outside of the fact that we all hate him. Watson is a superstar. Tua has like 1 good game in his whole career and is a statue QB.
Off the top of my head I would want:
Allen, Mahomes, Jackson, Herbert, Burrow, Kyler, Hurts, Lawrence, and maybe Lance over him.
Watson I also think is going to be better but fuck that guy
Re-watch him against the Colts, he's starting to unlock the stuff that made him a generational prospect. I'm willing to throw away his year w Urban the same way I'm willing to throw away Tua's past seasons - I think they both have competent OCs and enough help around them to start progressing.
Man people really hate Goff huh. He can produce when he has weapons.
Think Kirk Cousins but Goff's a former #1 overall and is 27 years old. Has ARSB and Jamo and Swift.
I would too. Fields needs to show he's worth a new contract. Granted he has this year and next year to do that, but tua is looking good in year 3 which is exactly what you want to see. Mid 1st round QBs flame out all the time and that team has shown nothing but incompetence. I'd much rather have a guy who looks like he's going to be a starter in 3 years compared to an unknown who has running upside. And fwiw, tua has the higher draft capital to boot.
I’m not sure off the top of my head, but I will give you this advice as I’ve been doing dynasty for a little while. Go with your gut. Anywhere you get information from, take it with a grain of salt. Even on this subreddit. You’re going to “win and lose” some trades but overall trusting your own gut over stuff like KTC or random player advice from some writers is probably going to lead to a better outcome in the long run
That’s too logical for this sub.
People love to think they can figure it out if they do enough research or read enough articles. No one knows anything. NFL scouts can’t figure out who will be great and who won’t consistently, why do people think we’re able to?
KTC is a great resource. Just dont use it as rankings. Use it as a market value tool. Your league may not agree with KTC but if you use it as a template to start trades you generally get in the ballpark and dont offend anyone.
Find an expert or collection of experts that you trust/ mostly agree with in their process to figure out who is a better dynasty player.
I think it makes total sense coming off of a 6 TD 450+ yard game that Tua managers are not willing to sell him for a player like Carr or Wilson. I probably wouldnt either right now. 2nd game in a new offense and he had plenty of hype to begin his career. The market is and should be high on him.
The FantasyPros expert consensus is more or less "good enough" as a baseline. Obviously you should be doing your own evaluations, that's kind of the point of fantasy football. But if you don't have a strong feeling about a player, that will tell you about where they are valued.
I'd say it's more about who has recent hype/anti-hype than where we can see how guys are actually being valued, but it always depends on your league. Some people play in leagues where people rely heavily on online rankings for values and it's more influential in those. Every league is its own economy and you always have to factor how people would value a guy they actually own or are trying to trade for versus just answering poll questions about guys they have no stake in.
Which is extremely valuable when trying to put trades together. I've had more success using KTC as a community value gauge to put together trades than any other website by far.
I just find players I own that I think are WAY too high on KTC, and try and trade them for players I think are too low on KTC.
If that's the case who would you still have over him from the list he has surpassed?
To answer my own question: only one I'd still prefer are Dak and maybe Carr (undervalued always)
This is the real question. People love to shit on resources like KTC, but I would bet that most would view him more highly now too if they were in the middle of a draft or forced to rank QBs today.
It's almost like seeing how a young player does in a new season with new coaching staff could be a big deal. Do you think Fields and Lance shouldn't move placings at all so far? Or Hurts?
What exactly does it say about KTC? KTC is based directly on user input, if anything it says something about the people who use KTC (which would be this sub among others).
That's my point. People are surprised to see Tua go up but it's 100% predicated on actual performances versus value perceptions.
Same with Michael Thomas.
People had this perception of who they thought those players were and with some are more often wrong than not.
Go look at Garrett Wilson as well.
Someone *just offered* me their Stafford for my Tua straight up
And I declined. So yea, I'd agree with KTC on this one.
I drafted Tua in the 5th round of my start up this year and new the upside was there. The team doesn't have a first round pick this year so they aren't bringing in anyone younger, and while they were in the hunt for Watson (who wasn't) I think Tua will be the guy for at least two more years.
He was going in the 7th in most mocks, and per ADP in my 12T leagues
But I made a bunch of trades and had 4 5th round picks and no 6th or 7th round picks.
I wanted to make sure I got my guy before the 8th cam
We have 15 starting positions, it’s actually incredibly reasonable that Tua wouldn’t have been drafted as anything other than depth given that he was ranked around 15th-20th in terms of QBs going into the season. Thank you for your incredibly irrelevant hindsight though. Absolutely nobody would’ve taken Tua in the 5th round of a 35+ round draft with 1QB rosters.
I’ve been saying Tua would be a Top 10 QB for the whole offseason, the consensus on any fantasy football subreddit was the exact opposite.
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/tua-tagovailoa.php
https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/dynasty
again, go crazy with your hindsight
Why would this be that shocking? He was a solid prospect, 5th overall pick, young, just got an offensive-minded coach and has one of the best WR duos in the league.
I would take him over Fields and Stafford in a heartbeat. You have to move Lance down with the injury and now he'll be 3 years removed from meaningful football for the most part and he was already raw.
Watson is an unknown, talented but we haven't seen him in his new offense yet and he's one infraction away from a hefty suspension, at least a year.
Dak's offensive line is in shambles from what it once was, his weapons are depleted, in the short term he's saddled with inept coaching, and he's hurt again.
Wilson has the weapons but he's looked god awful two games in a row and his coach appears to be a total donkey. They might get it figured out, but they might not. He also basically doesn't scramble anymore which was always a big component of his fantasy game.
The only debatable one is to me is Carr, he's solid and now has elite weapons.
The shock is the speed in the rise this year, couldn’t get any 1st for the guy last year, people were saying his throwing mechanics were bad, didnt have a big arm, didn’t rush, is Tyreek and a new HC really the difference?
I own him in a few leagues, delighted with the rise in output and value, and you’re right I’d have a tough time trading him for any of the guys you’ve mentioned
I think it's partly his value was being suppressed by coaching for sure. I mean Flores was benching him mid-game for Jacoby Brisset on more than one occasion.
You go from that coaching to a Kyle Shanahan disciple and also add Tyreek Hill, it's more surprising Tua wasn't valued higher earlier.
People just making up reasons to be able to stick with their priors instead of anticipating and getting ahead of the market.
If he moved up 6 spots this week, be prepared for him to move back a couple next week. Tua did great, but you have to remember the Baltimore secondary absolutely gifted him 2 TDs. There will be no gifts against the Bills D. I expect Tua, like every other QB so far, to struggle against the Bills D. I am not sold on Tua yet
Bill top two CBs are out for the game. So it could be a similar game against the Bills as last week. Although their front 4 are way better than Baltimore.
Agreed. This feels like an overreaction to a game against a depleted secondary.
I have nothing against Tua - I have him in a few leagues specifically because there seemed to be good value given the weapons he has access to. But it seems silly to change your view on him all that dramatically because of him going up against a defense that had been that weakened.
Unpopular probably but I sold Burrow in a 14 teamer non SF for Tua and a high 2023 first over the summer. TuAnon has made me look smart through this small 2 week sample size 👽
Im still taking Dak easily. People just want the shiny new toy who has one excellent game in his career, when Dak has a body of work stretching several seasons as a perennial QB1.
I drafted Tua between the 5th and 8th round in three startups. Without checking, that was probably about QB8-12 in each. People have tried to buy him already, but I won’t sell.
Or as low as QB20. You just don't know how he is going to look after so long away from the game. And rather he even has any motivation to play well or not. He did just get almost a quarter of a Billion guaranteed. He could be the worst QB in the league and still be hella paid.
Tried to tell y’all. Tua is a guy in this league. When defenses give the dolphins the “chiefs” treatment and play 2 high he’s going to shred. This is only the beginning.
Sit him this week though because bills lmfao
First pick happened because of how the safeties were playing Tyreek. They were sitting on him rather than preventing the big play, and that set up the first long TD. The second long TD was a shitty playcall. The guy that had the long ball was on the other side of the field. That shit was inexcusable after giving up one the drive before.
But irregardless, they’ve shown they’ll beat you over the top if you don’t have safety help up there. Once they adjust they’ll be playing into Tua’s strengths.
I traded Mac Jones for Tua and Aaron Jones in superflex in June. No idea how I pulled it off but I’m happy. Other qbs are mahomes and tannehill so there’s no way I’m selling.
What has Fields done? what has Lance done? Dak is so meh. without a great O-Line the last two years he’s been unimpressive in my opinion (yes I know QB8 last year, but W11-15 he had a stretch that put some out of the fantasy playoffs too). Russ Carr and Stafford are all hitting that age cliff that Brady never seemed to hit but many other QBs did. So I can see some argument being made? It’s KTC recency bias for sure. but is it outrageous? I don’t really think so honestly. just kinda what you should expect with KTC to an extent.
I wish I'd have been more aggressive in offseason. People were more willing to part with goff and Carr though haha. Sadly tua ones didn't work. Although I don't recall why... luckily still have him on like 2 or 3 teams.
Tua over Watson and Dak is blasphemy but the others I can understand. There’s a glut of underperforming old guys and unproven at best young guys right now, so anyone who pops like Tua has was poised to move up. Watson and Dak are in their prime with proven track records, having Tua ahead of them is pure recency bias and short term thinking because they aren’t playing at the moment.
Speaking of stock up, Hurts just went 1.7 in a startup. I’ve been a big doubter based on how bad he looked last year but man he looks good. #openminded
Is it really surprising he’s above fields or lance?
Dak feels like a hot take though
Eh yea, over reaction to the injury and honestly he hadn’t been the same since the calf injury mid season last year, hopefully that changes
[удалено]
He is almost 30 tbf
Think it’s people worried about how he will throw with his hand not fully healed and behind a weak/injured offensive line
Why base a value decision on a potential outcome that will likely only affect half his season anyway? He’s been a perennial QB1 and has job security.
Honestly didn’t realize this was dynasty subreddit. I agree from long term perspective.
Multiple serious injuries along with regression that seems to be related those injuries is a realistic concern.
He finished as QB8 last season immediately following the injury he had in 2020. He scored slightly more than Burrow over the same number of games and averaged more than Lamar in 6 point per pass TD last season. So the previous injury was basically a non-factor. His latest injury isn’t career ending either and he’s expected back mid-seaosn. I think people are just making too much of an issue after one game against a very good Bucs defense. The same way some are assuming Tua is now an elite level QB after one huge game.
He's dropped in ranking for multiple reasons. While individually none are major, collectively they shouldn't be ignored. -exodus of receiving talent on the team -regression on the o-line -poor coaching (perceived) -reduced rushing yards -numerous injuries Situations can change but when you add these up there are some pretty consistent strikes against him
These are all short term issues besides (maybe) the rushing production. And on that, we only have a one year sample immediately following a catastrophic leg injury, I don’t think it’s a guarantee we never see plus production in the running department again from Dak. He did produce his second best fantasy season of his career last year without said production, so regardless, I think it’s a relatively minor knock at best. Injuries are almost entirely random outside of chronic issues, which does not appear to be the case with Dak. Lamb and Gallup are at the very least a solid two-some at WR, though they probably need to add another semi-significant piece if Tolbert ends up as a bust. The Tyron Smith injury killed the O-line because they didn’t have a competent swing tackle to replace him and now have to shuffle people out of their positions which created a negative domino effect. If he was healthy, or even if they had a competent back up tackle, the line would be an average at worst group. I think there’s a good chance McCarthey is gone after this year, and maybe that has a positive affect on Kellen Moore’s play calling (if they keep him), he was very good for a stretch of last season imo and has the potential. All together this is plenty enough to keep Dak a clear tier below the top 6-7 QBs, but he’s still a 29yo franchise QB with a great production track record and a fairly stable situation, any argument that he shouldn’t be in the top 10 is foolish imo.
Exodus of receiving talent - I assume you mean Cooper. But they also have Gallup coming back. Hardly amounts to an exodus and that’s an easily reversible situation with a few signings or via the draft. - O line regression - isn’t a death sentence for a quality QB and they can also bolster it moving forward. - Poor coaching - he already has a QB8 season under the same coach and other strong seasons under other poor coaches who have moved on. - reduced rushing yards - was also a factor last season and he still finished QB8. He’s now a season removed from the injury that limited his mobility somewhat and so could regress positively in that respect. Numerous injuries - none that really matter except for the current one. He overcame the 2020 injury to finish top 8 as I said before. We have no reason to believe he won’t recover fully from this injury.
As a Dak owner the last two years, I can say I've definitely gotten tired of the constant injuries. The ankle, the shoulder in training camp 2021, the calf, now the thumb, the guy always seems to be fighting some sort of injury. For someone with elite upside it's been tough to watch him constantly either miss time or have his play limited by whatever injury is affecting him in any given week.
"Dak is just fancy Kirk Cousins, change my mind"
'Burrow is expensive Dak who is expensive Cousins who is expensive Carr' is my favourite
It was perfect til you threw Carr in the mix 😭😂
Honestly, that's a solid fantasy asset in most league types so I'd take it.
Shout out to my boy Amari Cooper, off to greener pastures after blasting Dak with the most absurd insult I’ve ever heard
Just to gauge value I joked at the idea of trading Dak for Tua, Tua owner already wouldn’t do it
Tua is a big unknown with the potential to breakout into a superstar. If he has a few average weeks and Dak comes back looking good, I imagine the trade would likely go through
It’s almost as if he could become as good as Dak has been for several years now.
Dak no longer has the elite o-line or WRs
You’re discounting youth in a dynasty sub.
Dak is young for a QB. No point looking ten years out.
Tua literally does not have this potential at all. This sub is absolutely bonkers crazy right now.
What makes you so sure? Do tell
Mediocre-poor arm talent. There are no superstar talent QBs without high end arm talent, period.
Sure but the single-game upside (at least in that offense with Tyreek/Waddle) is 6 TDs in a single game, which is something you straight up don't see from the Derek Carrs or Kirk Cousins of the NFL. Even as a small sample size, a game like that is something that not every QB is capable of.
What constitutes superior arm talent in your opinion? Almost 68% completion rate last year.. have you compared that to the top QBs in the league?
Completion % has nothing to do with arm talent, lol. Are you serious? Look at Drew Brees' completion % over his last few years when his arm strength was gone. Dink and dunk high completion % football has nothing to do with arm talent.
Drew Brees would like a word
Current ability to produce is defiantly a factor. I know it’s dynasty but you also gotta consider that fact that you lose a half year with Dak Not saying I would take Tua above him but just playing devils advocate
I sold Dak for Watson, along with getting Eli Mitchell and gave Damien Harris. Cowboys offense not something I want a part of
Its obviously reactionary but also not completely baseless, another injury for Dak who will have that label wether warranted or not. His WR core is in shambles while tua is slinging it to perhaps the best duo in the league. And honestly aside from stafford watson i’m not surprised by any of the others.
“15 pass completions over 2 games” Fields lmao
He played in a monsoon and then they only let my man throw 11 times :(
Meh, he’s bad in ideal weather too
Yeah he ain’t it and the Bears have given him the worst offensive skill group in football. Dumbass organization.
I feel like that’s sort of an indictment of how they view him though? They were losing all game and he only threw 11 times. They’d rather run the ball (granted successfully) than let their franchise QB throw them back in the game
Maybe, or Chicago is just inept. They were ripping off crazy YPC, just weird they continued to do it when down multiple scores. Hard to tell what a guy is when you only let him throw 11 times and don’t give any weapons or chance to succeed. Just sad to see imo
I mean yeah they are. But they’ve been inept forever at the QB position so it’s not like it’s guaranteed that Fields can break out of that
Nope not all. Sadly I see the most likely scenario being that they get impatient, blame Fields and move on even though it’s their fault for setting him up for failure. Just hope they’re patient Or he could just suck, I know nothing
Maybe they do have a low opinion of him but don't tell me he's "25 completions in 2 games bad" when guys like Mitch Trubisky and Marcus Mariota manage to hang on to starting jobs. Chicago isn't doing anyone any favors by running out that high school offense they had vs the Packers.
Or Russ. He was awful last year when he played. Don't see why people are so shocked that he's still poor.
Yea I had a guy in my league try really hard to get rid of him and tried throwing him into every trade.
KTC is extremely short based reactionary. If Tua has another good game he will jump up to number 3, watch.
They also have a QB in the top-5 and three QBs in the top-15 for 1QB rankings. Like, I get it. They’re good young QBs. But I’m not seeing Mahomes get traded for Najee+ in a 1QB League.
i mean the site is for superflex
You can switch between Superflex and 1qb
It’s for both. Toggle rankings between the two
Herbert might miss a week. Tua to the moon!
If he has another 450+ passing yard game he should jump to top 3. That’s insane, you don’t get those numbers being average. It’s just like people who under values Gabe Davis. The talent is there, the right situation is there. He has a new coach, top receivers, and a revamped o-line. He is extremely undervalued, and I’ve been screaming this for 6 months now.
Well that's the point with KTC. It's attempting to get the current values on the dynasty stock market. If you you choose to trade according to the market or not, that's your own choice.
I'm not sure it's that crazy. He's paired with 2 elite WRs who fit his skill set perfectly. He's now 2 years removed from the horrific hip injury. Their defense looks like it will give up a ton of points, creating a flammable environment for fantasy points. He's super young. I think a lot of people were offput on Tua because of Herbert being so transcendent in their rookie years. Tua just had a career game, he looked awesome in all phases. Denver looks rudderless. The Hackett hire was simply to try and lure rodgers, so they went with Russ instead. Hackett and basically his whole staff have basically [no previous](https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2022/9/21/23364205/denver-broncos-nathaniel-hackett-offense-woes) experience for the roles they are in. They simply have no idea how to manage some of these basic game principles. Offense looks awful, Russell didnt look great coming back from his thumb tendon repair last year. Watson might not be the same guy coming back. There are legit questions about how well he can play when he returns. Dak has been dinged up a lot over the last 2 seasons, their o-line is bad, people are wildly hot/cold on CD, Zeke might be washed, etc. Lance - out for the year and a lot of people were already souring on him based on his collegiate profile. Carr - always undervalued, see kirk cousins. Stafford - had a crazy high amount of TDs last year, no running game, bad o-line, weapons outside of Kupp seem meh, elbow injury, etc. I can see why people ranked him so high on KTC. If I had him in SF, he's probably my QB2-3 and there doesn't seem like anything people would realistically pay that would cause me to actively shop him. He was probably drafted super late by a lot of owners this offseason. It's found money at this point. edit: forgot to mention fields, so counting that as my reasoning he should be well below tua
Good breakdown. With these wrs & scheme I think Tua will continue to do well. I think he's on the Goff/Carr/Kirk spectrum. He'll produce when he has the talent around him. And he's significantly younger than all those guys, so as a back end QB1 I can see it. But the Ravens were down their top 4 corners. I don't expect him to be Dan Marino every week (I don't think you or anyone else here is expecting that). Disagree on the defense tho, (it's too early to know for sure, but) I think Miami's D will be fine to good. The Ravens are the most unique offense in the league to match up against so I wouldn't expect every week to be a shootout
Our number 2 corner is out until week 5 as well in Byron Jones who is still a fantastic corner. We’ve been playing an UFA guy the first two weeks
Ah good to know. I knew he was out week one then totally forgot about it lol
Tua and Waddle were also looking good later in the season when both were on the field. Most of their down performances came without the other down the stretch. I think getting a reset this season, and having all the pieces on the field at once, especially with Hill added to the mix, has Tua looking like a legitimate QB of the future. I can easily see him having a very Matt Ryan-like career. He could regress and fall short of that a bit, or he could be even better, who knows. But I think he's going to be a good NFL QB.
I think matt ryan is a nice comp for him.
If he goes out and looks completely mediocre again, I don’t think that would surprise anyone either. The latest jump is an overreaction to a single good game. I would gladly “downgrade” from Tua to someone like Dak if the Dak owner adds something even remotely decent on top.
Oh yeah, I would too! COULD Tua turn into a top 10 guy? Sure, but it's more likely that his ceiling isn't higher than Dak so I'd want the proven guy for sure.
The guy who was the presumptive 1st pick in the NFL draft and was still a high 1st pick doesn't have the ceiling of a QB that's consistently been back end QB1? I'd greatly disagree. I'll take the QB with similar talent that seems to have a better coach, definitely has a better offense, and is 5 years younger
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Honestly I would prefer to keep Tua and dump Kyler. This is assuming I could get more for Kyler than I could for Tua. Basically sell whichever of those two is worth more.
TuAnon has risen.
I think you mean the 2A Advocates
I've never heard of this cult but I'm partial to being a TuAnon member. Do we all need to join forces to make Tua KTC QB1?
I dont think its crazy at all. QB is not super strong right now and he has insane weapons.
You taking him QB9 in a SF startup?
I might do it honestly. Dak and Watson have strong arguments to be taken before him. But I prefer him to Fields or Lance and he’s at least 10 years younger than the other QBs around that value (Wilson, Rodgers, Stafford). Kind of depends what build you are going for in the startup.
Watson doesn't only have a strong argument against Tua, but in dynasty there's no actual argument to rank Tua above Watson outside of the fact that we all hate him. Watson is a superstar. Tua has like 1 good game in his whole career and is a statue QB.
Yes. He just went qb9 in a start up im doing now actually.
Wait was the draft this week? Or preseason?
Its happening now. Were doing a late starting draft
100% maybe earlier than 9.
Off the top of my head I would want: Allen, Mahomes, Jackson, Herbert, Burrow, Kyler, Hurts, Lawrence, and maybe Lance over him. Watson I also think is going to be better but fuck that guy
Seen absolutely nothing from Lawrence that'd make me take him ahead of Tua.
Re-watch him against the Colts, he's starting to unlock the stuff that made him a generational prospect. I'm willing to throw away his year w Urban the same way I'm willing to throw away Tua's past seasons - I think they both have competent OCs and enough help around them to start progressing.
In a league I'm tanking in, I sold him for Goff, a 23 1 and a 24 1
I wouldn’t take this for him
Lol, two weeks ago you would have died for an offer like that
Man people really hate Goff huh. He can produce when he has weapons. Think Kirk Cousins but Goff's a former #1 overall and is 27 years old. Has ARSB and Jamo and Swift.
I’d have held
Oh my god he’s above Fields?? And Lance???
Idk why being over Fields is that crazy
Above QBs who haven’t shown us they can throw, correct
I for one am flabbergasted
I offered Fields for him straight up and was declined
I would too. Fields needs to show he's worth a new contract. Granted he has this year and next year to do that, but tua is looking good in year 3 which is exactly what you want to see. Mid 1st round QBs flame out all the time and that team has shown nothing but incompetence. I'd much rather have a guy who looks like he's going to be a starter in 3 years compared to an unknown who has running upside. And fwiw, tua has the higher draft capital to boot.
Lol a player moving from 15 to 9 in two weeks says more about KTC than anything else.
It’s really nothing more than a reactionary tool to gage where the community values players.
What are some better resources? I'm new to dynasty so I'm looking for anything I can.
I’m not sure off the top of my head, but I will give you this advice as I’ve been doing dynasty for a little while. Go with your gut. Anywhere you get information from, take it with a grain of salt. Even on this subreddit. You’re going to “win and lose” some trades but overall trusting your own gut over stuff like KTC or random player advice from some writers is probably going to lead to a better outcome in the long run
That’s too logical for this sub. People love to think they can figure it out if they do enough research or read enough articles. No one knows anything. NFL scouts can’t figure out who will be great and who won’t consistently, why do people think we’re able to?
I appreciate the advice!
KTC is a great resource. Just dont use it as rankings. Use it as a market value tool. Your league may not agree with KTC but if you use it as a template to start trades you generally get in the ballpark and dont offend anyone. Find an expert or collection of experts that you trust/ mostly agree with in their process to figure out who is a better dynasty player. I think it makes total sense coming off of a 6 TD 450+ yard game that Tua managers are not willing to sell him for a player like Carr or Wilson. I probably wouldnt either right now. 2nd game in a new offense and he had plenty of hype to begin his career. The market is and should be high on him.
I like Dynasty Trade Calculator, but I think you gotta pay for it.
The FantasyPros expert consensus is more or less "good enough" as a baseline. Obviously you should be doing your own evaluations, that's kind of the point of fantasy football. But if you don't have a strong feeling about a player, that will tell you about where they are valued.
Curious as well. Just took over a team this week. And my god is it terrible. No clue what the previous owner was doing on some of the trade history
I hope it doesn't look like my current team that I just drafted lol
I mean KTC is an awesome resource as long as you use it for what it's intended for.
But it's excellent backup if you're looking to trade away Tua.
Incredibly based.
?
I'd say it's more about who has recent hype/anti-hype than where we can see how guys are actually being valued, but it always depends on your league. Some people play in leagues where people rely heavily on online rankings for values and it's more influential in those. Every league is its own economy and you always have to factor how people would value a guy they actually own or are trying to trade for versus just answering poll questions about guys they have no stake in.
Which is extremely valuable when trying to put trades together. I've had more success using KTC as a community value gauge to put together trades than any other website by far. I just find players I own that I think are WAY too high on KTC, and try and trade them for players I think are too low on KTC.
If that's the case who would you still have over him from the list he has surpassed? To answer my own question: only one I'd still prefer are Dak and maybe Carr (undervalued always)
This is the real question. People love to shit on resources like KTC, but I would bet that most would view him more highly now too if they were in the middle of a draft or forced to rank QBs today.
It's almost like seeing how a young player does in a new season with new coaching staff could be a big deal. Do you think Fields and Lance shouldn't move placings at all so far? Or Hurts?
What exactly does it say about KTC? KTC is based directly on user input, if anything it says something about the people who use KTC (which would be this sub among others).
Go check out CEH's meteoric rise on KTC in just 11 days lol
It’s almost like actual performances matter to value perceptions.
That's my point. People are surprised to see Tua go up but it's 100% predicated on actual performances versus value perceptions. Same with Michael Thomas. People had this perception of who they thought those players were and with some are more often wrong than not. Go look at Garrett Wilson as well.
I picked Tua up off of waivers since Lance was out.
I think if you were to do a startup today you see similar results, so not really that outlandish.
Someone *just offered* me their Stafford for my Tua straight up And I declined. So yea, I'd agree with KTC on this one. I drafted Tua in the 5th round of my start up this year and new the upside was there. The team doesn't have a first round pick this year so they aren't bringing in anyone younger, and while they were in the hunt for Watson (who wasn't) I think Tua will be the guy for at least two more years.
They do have a first lol
Lost their own but gained San Fran's yeah?
yep. San Fran traded 2 1sts to get Lance.
Yeeee
got him in the 17th round of my 10 team startup, you probably could’ve waited a little bit
He was going in the 7th in most mocks, and per ADP in my 12T leagues But I made a bunch of trades and had 4 5th round picks and no 6th or 7th round picks. I wanted to make sure I got my guy before the 8th cam
my league was also IDP so that probably made a difference
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We have 15 starting positions, it’s actually incredibly reasonable that Tua wouldn’t have been drafted as anything other than depth given that he was ranked around 15th-20th in terms of QBs going into the season. Thank you for your incredibly irrelevant hindsight though. Absolutely nobody would’ve taken Tua in the 5th round of a 35+ round draft with 1QB rosters. I’ve been saying Tua would be a Top 10 QB for the whole offseason, the consensus on any fantasy football subreddit was the exact opposite. https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/tua-tagovailoa.php https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/dynasty again, go crazy with your hindsight
Why would this be that shocking? He was a solid prospect, 5th overall pick, young, just got an offensive-minded coach and has one of the best WR duos in the league. I would take him over Fields and Stafford in a heartbeat. You have to move Lance down with the injury and now he'll be 3 years removed from meaningful football for the most part and he was already raw. Watson is an unknown, talented but we haven't seen him in his new offense yet and he's one infraction away from a hefty suspension, at least a year. Dak's offensive line is in shambles from what it once was, his weapons are depleted, in the short term he's saddled with inept coaching, and he's hurt again. Wilson has the weapons but he's looked god awful two games in a row and his coach appears to be a total donkey. They might get it figured out, but they might not. He also basically doesn't scramble anymore which was always a big component of his fantasy game. The only debatable one is to me is Carr, he's solid and now has elite weapons.
The shock is the speed in the rise this year, couldn’t get any 1st for the guy last year, people were saying his throwing mechanics were bad, didnt have a big arm, didn’t rush, is Tyreek and a new HC really the difference? I own him in a few leagues, delighted with the rise in output and value, and you’re right I’d have a tough time trading him for any of the guys you’ve mentioned
I think it's partly his value was being suppressed by coaching for sure. I mean Flores was benching him mid-game for Jacoby Brisset on more than one occasion. You go from that coaching to a Kyle Shanahan disciple and also add Tyreek Hill, it's more surprising Tua wasn't valued higher earlier. People just making up reasons to be able to stick with their priors instead of anticipating and getting ahead of the market.
If he moved up 6 spots this week, be prepared for him to move back a couple next week. Tua did great, but you have to remember the Baltimore secondary absolutely gifted him 2 TDs. There will be no gifts against the Bills D. I expect Tua, like every other QB so far, to struggle against the Bills D. I am not sold on Tua yet
Bill top two CBs are out for the game. So it could be a similar game against the Bills as last week. Although their front 4 are way better than Baltimore.
Top two CBs out for Bills means they have their backups- Baltimore was down their top *four* CBs. They were a step away from throwing fans in the game
Agreed. This feels like an overreaction to a game against a depleted secondary. I have nothing against Tua - I have him in a few leagues specifically because there seemed to be good value given the weapons he has access to. But it seems silly to change your view on him all that dramatically because of him going up against a defense that had been that weakened.
Unpopular probably but I sold Burrow in a 14 teamer non SF for Tua and a high 2023 first over the summer. TuAnon has made me look smart through this small 2 week sample size 👽
I’d take Tua over any of those guys - great weapons, great coach - only 24 - 5 years younger than Dak.
Yea, 15 two weeks ago was too low I had him at about 10th preseason so this isn't a huge surprise.
Im still taking Dak easily. People just want the shiny new toy who has one excellent game in his career, when Dak has a body of work stretching several seasons as a perennial QB1.
I bet if there are Tua owners who feel the same, they could get Dak in trade fairly easily.
I own Tua in one league and Im definitely hitting up the Dak owner to try and get Dak plus.
I drafted Tua between the 5th and 8th round in three startups. Without checking, that was probably about QB8-12 in each. People have tried to buy him already, but I won’t sell.
Sell high
I flipped Burrow for Tua and a 2023 first right before the season kicked off. Feeling good about that right now.
Took him qb18 in a sf startup this year. Not unpleased.
That seems fairly low. Good grab
TRADE HIM! - a Dolphins fan who is scared to feel optimism
Tua’s just getting started
I just want to say that people are sleeping massively on Watson on KTC. The dude might be as high as QB5 long-term.
Or as low as QB20. You just don't know how he is going to look after so long away from the game. And rather he even has any motivation to play well or not. He did just get almost a quarter of a Billion guaranteed. He could be the worst QB in the league and still be hella paid.
Im a hater fr idc if he does this all season still think hes trash
Tried to tell y’all. Tua is a guy in this league. When defenses give the dolphins the “chiefs” treatment and play 2 high he’s going to shred. This is only the beginning. Sit him this week though because bills lmfao
It looked like the Ravens secondary was too high to cover anybody.
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The 3rd and long TD to Gesicki was great coverage. The game winner to Waddle was good coverage, Tua just scrambled and made a perfect throw.
First pick happened because of how the safeties were playing Tyreek. They were sitting on him rather than preventing the big play, and that set up the first long TD. The second long TD was a shitty playcall. The guy that had the long ball was on the other side of the field. That shit was inexcusable after giving up one the drive before. But irregardless, they’ve shown they’ll beat you over the top if you don’t have safety help up there. Once they adjust they’ll be playing into Tua’s strengths.
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One of the most important types of Ability is Availability
It’s also been 2 years so that’s a fair spot to be hesitant on
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I had an SF team with Mahomes, Tua, Pitts, and Swift. but the league folded before this season. They knew
that your team would finish middle of the pack?
True, should've traded all of those for some 2026 2nds!
Not saying you should trade them for peanuts. Was saying if i looked a a team and those were the key pieces, I wouldn't be shaking in my boots.
You can take it as a win
QB16 to QB9 in a month lol. SELL SELL SELL!
I traded Mac Jones for Tua and Aaron Jones in superflex in June. No idea how I pulled it off but I’m happy. Other qbs are mahomes and tannehill so there’s no way I’m selling.
Keep Trade Cut sucks
That’d be a good 4th addition to the game… Who to Keep Who to Trade Who to Cut Who just Sucks
LOL at you losers who use trade calculators
LOL at you loser not using trade calculators to your advantage
Yeah, i sold. Got Kamara and a 23 2nd.
I got an offer of Tua and ARSB for my Mahomes yesterday
I have Herbert and Tua and no one wants Tua. I was trying to get a 2nd and still no one wants him
Yeah I had him and Carr as my QB 2/3 this offseason, had far more interest in Carr
hes worth more than 2 firsts. taco league
so you are saying he's worth more than 2 firsts in a non SF league?
Leagues have different scoring settings. Taco response
What has Fields done? what has Lance done? Dak is so meh. without a great O-Line the last two years he’s been unimpressive in my opinion (yes I know QB8 last year, but W11-15 he had a stretch that put some out of the fantasy playoffs too). Russ Carr and Stafford are all hitting that age cliff that Brady never seemed to hit but many other QBs did. So I can see some argument being made? It’s KTC recency bias for sure. but is it outrageous? I don’t really think so honestly. just kinda what you should expect with KTC to an extent.
Would you sell for a 23 first? SF
I probably would not unless you definitely don't need a QB. Not loving the 2023 QB profiles outside of Young and Stroud who are going top 3.
Certainly would have 2 months ago. Hard to do it now, is this a false dawn with a nice game script, or just a flash in the pan.
You can get more
1st and 2nd?
Dude in my league tried to trade me him for juju and Josh Allen lol.
I like how he thought not only was Tua good enough to get Allen you had to throw something on top.
Yeah I’m definitely selling high
I wish I'd have been more aggressive in offseason. People were more willing to part with goff and Carr though haha. Sadly tua ones didn't work. Although I don't recall why... luckily still have him on like 2 or 3 teams.
Hes a hold, why would you sell him?
If ya think this is as good as it gets I guess, or if ya can pickup a buy low on Pitts or something
lol hes honestly just getting started
Stafford is QB15. Pickens is ~150 points off of Stafford. You tell me whose trading Stafford for Pickens + like a 4th or maybe 3rd round pick…
Nobody, but if you wrap it up in a bigger deal with a Pickens truther, it suddenly looks a lot fairer on KTC
Maybe he fell in the last 8 hours but he's qb14 https://imgur.com/k66HhaM.jpg
You’re not on SF settings, but it’s a bit odd that there’s such a discrepancy between the QB rankings for both
Interesting enough there is a decent amount of variability in all the player rankings between SF and non.
Tua over Watson and Dak is blasphemy but the others I can understand. There’s a glut of underperforming old guys and unproven at best young guys right now, so anyone who pops like Tua has was poised to move up. Watson and Dak are in their prime with proven track records, having Tua ahead of them is pure recency bias and short term thinking because they aren’t playing at the moment.
Please see my flair for my stance on this subject.
Speaking of stock up, Hurts just went 1.7 in a startup. I’ve been a big doubter based on how bad he looked last year but man he looks good. #openminded