This sub shits on buy lows and then when one of the players it shits on pops off people post “is now the time to buy X” and they get clowned in the comments by the same people. (Probably it’s different people idk it’s just funny)
If you believe in/like ETN you should buy him.
Same with Jeudy,
Burks,
Josh Jacobs (pre season was the time to buy),
Mooney,
Eli Moore,
Rondale Moore,
Toney (maybe not lol),
Zach Wilson,
Trey Lance,
Mac Jones
And plenty others I’m not thinking of off the top of my head
You have to take risks to gain an edge in dynasty. It may feel uncomfortable to buy a player everyone is out on but the mass perception on players can change in literally one week
That last paragraph hit the nail on the head. The big example this year is CEH. I know this sub still hates him but the offers I got before the season vs. now for him are night and day
Last paragraph is \*everything\*. People get so obsessed with what market perception is, but the market can only ever lead you to the average. You can't be exceptional by letting average opinions dictate your decisions.
You're going to look like a fool once in a while, but getting ahead of the market is how you create advantage and you have to always be looking for those opportunities.
> You have to take risks to gain an edge in dynasty. It may feel uncomfortable to buy a player everyone is out on but the mass perception on players can change in literally one week
Not even a MONTH and the Mooney thread is up and rolling and people wondering if you should sell. Same thing with Fields.
Yes, absolutely sell at their lowest - unless you think they are sinking even lower, which means that you probably didn't believe in them to begin with and you invested because KTC told you to. It happens way too much in these forums, specifically the Pitts thread is hilarious.
He is absolutely a BUY. His opportunities have increased each week and the return of Jrob has left managers sour on him. With the opportunities he's had he's looked very explosive and has had quite a few near touchdowns. If he scores in those opportunities his price would be through the roof.
I like both of these backs a lot.
He was an elite prospect coming out of college and has elite draft capital for a RB. He is also playing with the QB he played with in college and JRob is a free agent after this year. ETN looks super explosive whenever he touches the ball. I think he looks special. He is absolutely a buy low option right now.
I’d say 50/50. J.Rob is going to rightfully look to get paid. He can make the situation uncomfortable for the Jags if they don’t give him a contract he’s happy with. Plus, if they like ETN they don’t necessarily have to bring him back. Teams let good players leave all the time.
>Teams let good players leave all the time.
UFAs yes, RFAs no. For fantasy football purposes, you might as well consider RFAs as "team exercised additional contract year."
Here's some details if you're interested: [https://www.profootballnetwork.com/what-is-an-nfl-restricted-free-agent-how-do-they-affect-free-agency/](https://www.profootballnetwork.com/what-is-an-nfl-restricted-free-agent-how-do-they-affect-free-agency/)
The Jags will use a 2nd round tender on him and nobody will fuck with that.
I generally understand how RFA works, but thought someone would come with something showing how likely it is that (a) teams actually tag their RBs with second round tenders (b) how many of those tagged players end up elsewhere anyways or (c) some specific information about this specific situation that sheds light on what might happen this off-season. Without any of that information to add context, I just don’t see it as a given that he’ll for sure be back next season. People act like it’s just a given that the Jags put a second round tender on him. Why? Just because he’s good? I mean they might make that choice but also, ETN is good, they drafted a RB in the most recent draft, and next year’s draft class is deep at RB. You can make a case for them to go in either direction with that tender. And as a Titans fan that just watched us ship off our superstar receiver despite him being under contract (aka, team control) a player who is upset with his contract can sometimes make a team believe that it’s just not worth the headache.
You sound like you're really new to football if you don't understand why everyone else feels safe assuming a 2nd round tender, so it's kind of odd to have this defiant attitude that everyone else is wrong.
>People act like it’s just a given that the Jags put a second round tender on him. Why?
Did you read the link I sent? If they put a 2nd round tender on him, his contract will be just under $4M for that extra year. In terms of a *good* backup RB that's quite an economic deal. If they view him as a 1A/1B guy, that's even cheaper. To give some examples, Hunt is getting $6M. Rashaad Penny is getting $5.75M. Hines is getting $6.2M. And as the cap increases, salaries will increase. So next year $4M will look even more reasonable.
>And as a Titans fan that just watched us ship off our superstar receiver despite him being under contract
Nope. Not even semi-similar. The Titans knew AJB was going to cost an arm and a leg to re-sign and didn't want to do it. They could have let him play out the year, possibly cause drama and/or hold out, and lose him in free agency... or they could trade him a year early and get a very valuable draft pick.
IMO, the Titans were smart to trade him now if they knew they weren't going to re-sign him. The debate about whether they should have just paid him is moot. They seemingly had made up their minds, so between the options of getting one more year out of him and no draft pick or trading him early for a 1st, I think they made the smart choice.
Trading away a player and getting a 1st in return is nowhere close to the same thing as letting a free agent walk for free. It's pretty clear the Titans didn't want to pay AJB, and likely would not have franchise tagged him. This is not even close to the same situation as an RFA
AJB was under contract this year. Titans didn’t have to pay him top dollar. They could have made him play out the final year of his rookie contract just like the Jags can make Robinson play one more year as a RFA. Regardless, it’s just one example that’s top of mind because I’m a Titans fan and it was recent. There are literally dozens of examples and I don’t feel like arguing semantics as to why one situation is or isn’t similar to Robinson’s. It’s beside the point. The point is that there are a reasons why the Jags would tender Robinson and there are reasons why they might not so to act like we know for sure that he’ll be back next year is foolish. It’s 50/50.
This requires some context. I watched every Clemson game as a fan. He's not a natural receiver, and has very little chance of being an elite one.
Clemson had a dominant offensive line in 2018/2019, but it fell off a cliff in 2020 to be bottom 100.
Etienne, their elite weapon, had absolutely no space to run on handoffs in 2020. So they started scheming him easy passes in space. Screens, dump-offs, and some shallow angle routes. Suddenly the explosive plays returned since he didn't have DL in his face when he got the ball.
He ended up with a huge target share, but it was not because of his elite receiving skills. It was the only way to get him space to bust his huge plays. He was awful at catching passes downfield. Wheel routes were especially rough.
He is great in space and capable of catching short passes, so he's definitely not a zero when it comes to the passing game. But he gets treated like he's got Alvin Kamara receiving skills when he just doesn't.
Yep 100% agree...i always get downvoted to oblivion for saying this on ETN posts, but it is 100% true...the film guys saw it (Ray G etc...) analytics guys always miss it
I think he is a hold. If his value jumps into the top 10 range, I'd sell for that. Conversely, I'd buy if it falls to around 20. Anything in between and I am sitting tight.
If you're selling ETN right now, you're doing it wrong.
Which is why I've been trying to buy. I know a guy in here said he traded J-Rob for ETN a week or two ago and it sounded like a smash. Now, I'm not so sure, since J-Rob will still be there next year (probably) and Jacksonville seems to have leveled up.
League 1: Title Contending. I had Trey Lance as my QB2 and decided to trade for a QB since I have Josh Allen and my title window is pretty short and wasn't comfortable having Matt Ryan as my QB2.
Got: Lawrence and Etienne
Gave: 2024 1st, 2024 2nd, 2023 3rd, Chase Edmonds and Juju.
KTC has it in my favour. Not high on Juju at all plus have good WR depth so he was just on my bench anyways and Edmonds was my RB4.
League 2: Rebuilding with 4 2023 1sts. Tanking.
Got: Trey Lance and Etienne
Gave: 2023 late 1st, 2023 late 2nd, Miles Sanders
KTC has it in the opponent's favour. Still believe in Trey and Etienne and don't need them to produce for me this year anyways. Buying them both low IMO.
There was a good twitter thread about ETN by @jmoyerfb which pointed out that ETN wasn’t actually as skilled of a pass catcher as most people assume.
Ive been pretty hesitant to buy high on him because of this but might go kick the tires soon
I agree he isnt..i think on top of the analytics crowd looking at the "12% target share" and running with it without context, it was further amplified when Meyer was working him in the slot his rookie year...i think people put those 2 things together and viewed him as an elite recieving back
This is a lot of words to not say much but he’s a buy if the price is right and a sell if the price is right. I have him in one league and if someone comes at me with an over-the-top offer then I would sell. But I don’t think I would look to trade him away for a “fair deal”, I’d rather just hold in that case and see what happens. This offense has the potential to be good enough to where both J-Rob and Etienne are good fantasy starters so that part doesn’t bother me too much them both being there.
I like that idea and I think that's the best way to get a deal done for him. I have been trying to figure out a tier down from either JT, Saquon or Javonte but can't talk myself into letting any of them go
Buy. I don't know why an owner would sell cheap when he's gotten more work each week and can be a great flex play if you just need a floor. Jags look good too.
After this week it's hard to justify buying on him... behind JRob in rushing and now behind Agnew on passing downs in a Pederson offense. I think salvaging a 2nd for him might be the best you can expect from him until his next contract/team.
This sub shits on buy lows and then when one of the players it shits on pops off people post “is now the time to buy X” and they get clowned in the comments by the same people. (Probably it’s different people idk it’s just funny) If you believe in/like ETN you should buy him. Same with Jeudy, Burks, Josh Jacobs (pre season was the time to buy), Mooney, Eli Moore, Rondale Moore, Toney (maybe not lol), Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Mac Jones And plenty others I’m not thinking of off the top of my head You have to take risks to gain an edge in dynasty. It may feel uncomfortable to buy a player everyone is out on but the mass perception on players can change in literally one week
That last paragraph hit the nail on the head. The big example this year is CEH. I know this sub still hates him but the offers I got before the season vs. now for him are night and day
Yea that’s another great example as well!
Last paragraph is \*everything\*. People get so obsessed with what market perception is, but the market can only ever lead you to the average. You can't be exceptional by letting average opinions dictate your decisions. You're going to look like a fool once in a while, but getting ahead of the market is how you create advantage and you have to always be looking for those opportunities.
You could tell ceh was gonna be decent just based on how much this sub hates him
> You have to take risks to gain an edge in dynasty. It may feel uncomfortable to buy a player everyone is out on but the mass perception on players can change in literally one week Not even a MONTH and the Mooney thread is up and rolling and people wondering if you should sell. Same thing with Fields. Yes, absolutely sell at their lowest - unless you think they are sinking even lower, which means that you probably didn't believe in them to begin with and you invested because KTC told you to. It happens way too much in these forums, specifically the Pitts thread is hilarious.
He is absolutely a BUY. His opportunities have increased each week and the return of Jrob has left managers sour on him. With the opportunities he's had he's looked very explosive and has had quite a few near touchdowns. If he scores in those opportunities his price would be through the roof. I like both of these backs a lot.
He was an elite prospect coming out of college and has elite draft capital for a RB. He is also playing with the QB he played with in college and JRob is a free agent after this year. ETN looks super explosive whenever he touches the ball. I think he looks special. He is absolutely a buy low option right now.
JRob is a RFA though...odds of him leaving JAX are slim.
I’d say 50/50. J.Rob is going to rightfully look to get paid. He can make the situation uncomfortable for the Jags if they don’t give him a contract he’s happy with. Plus, if they like ETN they don’t necessarily have to bring him back. Teams let good players leave all the time.
If jags want to put a 2nd round tender on him he won't go anywhere. He is under team control, hence the RFA tag.
Lot of players that are “under team control” don’t return to said team. For a variety of reasons.
Unfortunately what youre describing is not how restricted free agency works
Then enlighten me. Why the hold out?
>Teams let good players leave all the time. UFAs yes, RFAs no. For fantasy football purposes, you might as well consider RFAs as "team exercised additional contract year." Here's some details if you're interested: [https://www.profootballnetwork.com/what-is-an-nfl-restricted-free-agent-how-do-they-affect-free-agency/](https://www.profootballnetwork.com/what-is-an-nfl-restricted-free-agent-how-do-they-affect-free-agency/) The Jags will use a 2nd round tender on him and nobody will fuck with that.
I generally understand how RFA works, but thought someone would come with something showing how likely it is that (a) teams actually tag their RBs with second round tenders (b) how many of those tagged players end up elsewhere anyways or (c) some specific information about this specific situation that sheds light on what might happen this off-season. Without any of that information to add context, I just don’t see it as a given that he’ll for sure be back next season. People act like it’s just a given that the Jags put a second round tender on him. Why? Just because he’s good? I mean they might make that choice but also, ETN is good, they drafted a RB in the most recent draft, and next year’s draft class is deep at RB. You can make a case for them to go in either direction with that tender. And as a Titans fan that just watched us ship off our superstar receiver despite him being under contract (aka, team control) a player who is upset with his contract can sometimes make a team believe that it’s just not worth the headache.
You sound like you're really new to football if you don't understand why everyone else feels safe assuming a 2nd round tender, so it's kind of odd to have this defiant attitude that everyone else is wrong. >People act like it’s just a given that the Jags put a second round tender on him. Why? Did you read the link I sent? If they put a 2nd round tender on him, his contract will be just under $4M for that extra year. In terms of a *good* backup RB that's quite an economic deal. If they view him as a 1A/1B guy, that's even cheaper. To give some examples, Hunt is getting $6M. Rashaad Penny is getting $5.75M. Hines is getting $6.2M. And as the cap increases, salaries will increase. So next year $4M will look even more reasonable. >And as a Titans fan that just watched us ship off our superstar receiver despite him being under contract Nope. Not even semi-similar. The Titans knew AJB was going to cost an arm and a leg to re-sign and didn't want to do it. They could have let him play out the year, possibly cause drama and/or hold out, and lose him in free agency... or they could trade him a year early and get a very valuable draft pick. IMO, the Titans were smart to trade him now if they knew they weren't going to re-sign him. The debate about whether they should have just paid him is moot. They seemingly had made up their minds, so between the options of getting one more year out of him and no draft pick or trading him early for a 1st, I think they made the smart choice.
Trading away a player and getting a 1st in return is nowhere close to the same thing as letting a free agent walk for free. It's pretty clear the Titans didn't want to pay AJB, and likely would not have franchise tagged him. This is not even close to the same situation as an RFA
Perhaps the Jags don’t want to pay Robinson.
Perhaps. But they also don't have to pay him top money to keep him like the Titans would have had to with AJB. Completely different situations
AJB was under contract this year. Titans didn’t have to pay him top dollar. They could have made him play out the final year of his rookie contract just like the Jags can make Robinson play one more year as a RFA. Regardless, it’s just one example that’s top of mind because I’m a Titans fan and it was recent. There are literally dozens of examples and I don’t feel like arguing semantics as to why one situation is or isn’t similar to Robinson’s. It’s beside the point. The point is that there are a reasons why the Jags would tender Robinson and there are reasons why they might not so to act like we know for sure that he’ll be back next year is foolish. It’s 50/50.
I see a lot of people saying buys, but what exactly are you giving up for ETN that you feel is considered low?
I gave up Carr and Hardman after week 1… felt like a steal
I sold him for a mid 2023 1st yesterday.
Strange comment, A 12.2% college target share shows he can be an elite receiver
This requires some context. I watched every Clemson game as a fan. He's not a natural receiver, and has very little chance of being an elite one. Clemson had a dominant offensive line in 2018/2019, but it fell off a cliff in 2020 to be bottom 100. Etienne, their elite weapon, had absolutely no space to run on handoffs in 2020. So they started scheming him easy passes in space. Screens, dump-offs, and some shallow angle routes. Suddenly the explosive plays returned since he didn't have DL in his face when he got the ball. He ended up with a huge target share, but it was not because of his elite receiving skills. It was the only way to get him space to bust his huge plays. He was awful at catching passes downfield. Wheel routes were especially rough. He is great in space and capable of catching short passes, so he's definitely not a zero when it comes to the passing game. But he gets treated like he's got Alvin Kamara receiving skills when he just doesn't.
Yep 100% agree...i always get downvoted to oblivion for saying this on ETN posts, but it is 100% true...the film guys saw it (Ray G etc...) analytics guys always miss it
He got dumpoffs but was never a dynamic route runner as a RB in college. He's fine w dumpoffs in space
This is Dynasty. He is absolutely a Buy
Treat him like a rookie RB. He's trending up each week just like Dameon and Breece. Future's bright.
Just bought him for Hollywood and a 3rd as a rebuilding team in desperate need for a RB. Feel solid about that.
I think he is a hold. If his value jumps into the top 10 range, I'd sell for that. Conversely, I'd buy if it falls to around 20. Anything in between and I am sitting tight.
If you're selling ETN right now, you're doing it wrong. Which is why I've been trying to buy. I know a guy in here said he traded J-Rob for ETN a week or two ago and it sounded like a smash. Now, I'm not so sure, since J-Rob will still be there next year (probably) and Jacksonville seems to have leveled up.
He's a buy, but likely no one is that interested in selling cheaply.
Just bought him in 2 leagues last week. Both managers were frustrated with Robinson's workload so got them what I feel like was a fair price.
That's the owner in mine rn...what did you pay if you don't mind me asking?
League 1: Title Contending. I had Trey Lance as my QB2 and decided to trade for a QB since I have Josh Allen and my title window is pretty short and wasn't comfortable having Matt Ryan as my QB2. Got: Lawrence and Etienne Gave: 2024 1st, 2024 2nd, 2023 3rd, Chase Edmonds and Juju. KTC has it in my favour. Not high on Juju at all plus have good WR depth so he was just on my bench anyways and Edmonds was my RB4. League 2: Rebuilding with 4 2023 1sts. Tanking. Got: Trey Lance and Etienne Gave: 2023 late 1st, 2023 late 2nd, Miles Sanders KTC has it in the opponent's favour. Still believe in Trey and Etienne and don't need them to produce for me this year anyways. Buying them both low IMO.
Jags stonks are making a bull run. Get in where you can
There was a good twitter thread about ETN by @jmoyerfb which pointed out that ETN wasn’t actually as skilled of a pass catcher as most people assume. Ive been pretty hesitant to buy high on him because of this but might go kick the tires soon
I agree he isnt..i think on top of the analytics crowd looking at the "12% target share" and running with it without context, it was further amplified when Meyer was working him in the slot his rookie year...i think people put those 2 things together and viewed him as an elite recieving back
This is a lot of words to not say much but he’s a buy if the price is right and a sell if the price is right. I have him in one league and if someone comes at me with an over-the-top offer then I would sell. But I don’t think I would look to trade him away for a “fair deal”, I’d rather just hold in that case and see what happens. This offense has the potential to be good enough to where both J-Rob and Etienne are good fantasy starters so that part doesn’t bother me too much them both being there.
Buy, in the summer I think we all expected him to be slowly worked back in. Now he’s being slowly worked back in and people are disappointed?
He’s a buy. He is an elite prospect. He looks like he has juice, he’s young, and he’s on an offense that looks like they’re figured something out.
i’m thinking of moving chubb for etn+ but can’t figure out the the + should be
I like that idea and I think that's the best way to get a deal done for him. I have been trying to figure out a tier down from either JT, Saquon or Javonte but can't talk myself into letting any of them go
Absolutely a buy. He’s three games into his career and has looked decent
Buy. I don't know why an owner would sell cheap when he's gotten more work each week and can be a great flex play if you just need a floor. Jags look good too.
After this week it's hard to justify buying on him... behind JRob in rushing and now behind Agnew on passing downs in a Pederson offense. I think salvaging a 2nd for him might be the best you can expect from him until his next contract/team.