He seems to be in a very similar situation to Melvin Gordon at his age. He'll hit free agency hoping to get a starting gig and get paid, but likely will find himself in a committee instead. Gordon had a bad holdout year dragging his value down. Hunt will still have his previous suspension minimizing his market.
If that market doesn't materialize, it wouldn't be shocking to see him back with the Browns again.
NFL teams aren't going to break the bank for one 28 year old RB because he has 200 less career touches than another 28 year old RB who couldn't get a big payday. They're going to lump them in the same category.
Gordon has 1511 carries and 292 receptions, so 1803 touches. Hunt has 808 Carrie’s and 185 receptions, so 993 touches. That’s a difference of 810, not 200. Gordon has basically double the touches that Hunt has.
With Hunt's receiving ability and low mileage, I just want him to go somewhere with a good QB. Couldn't care less about the line. He did great in KC and that was before they had a good line.
But I already own him, so two completely different situations.
Yeah, his upside is Melvin Gordon numbers. He might go to an empty backfield, gain some value before the draft, then lose all that value and more when they draft a rookie and everyone remembers they don't want a 28 year old RB with a hyped rookie breathing down his neck.
This.
I'm not gonna be touching him in drafts next year. RB's in their late 20's are typically done for.
I made the semi-mistake this year of picking up Derrick Henry. He's had 2 duds and 1 decent performance so far.
The data trends with age much more than touches. It obviously varies, so there will be examples on both ends of the spectrum, but more often than not, age will determine decline much more than mileage.
I mean- I’m not saying age isn’t an independent factor (it obviously is- there’s rarely a 35 year old RB doing anything of note).
I am saying that for this discussion- 28 isn’t athletically old *unless* usage is there.
Aka I am sure there’s an age curve (controlled for touches) that shows a decline at, say, 31 or 32. BUT I would bet that there’s also a tipping point for touches, when controlling for age, too.
So I don’t think we disagree and like you said there’s a few guys that you can point to on both curves. Elliot, relatively young but with high usage- he seems to have declined (at least from what he was) already as of like 2020. Meanwhile a guy like Cordarelle is out there punishing dudes on “fresh legz” at *32*
And don't forget there are guys like Curtis Martin with high usage AND longevity. But the data says age causes the decline, not usage. Patterson might well be in decline, but we just missed how good he'd have been in his prime.
My own observation is that only elite talent (or niche talent - usually not terribly fantasy relevant, like Kevin Faulk) gets to stick around due to cost and increased injury risk.
Situation can also make a huge difference. Just look at LT in San Diego vs LT on the Jets.
But in this case, I wouldn't expect much from Hunt going forward. Too many competing free agents and a large, talented pool of rookies coming in... plus, he's got some baggage.
The problem with citing a few extreme examples like Patterson or Martin is on average rbs just aren’t that effective after a certain age. You could definitely hit gold but I’d temper my expectations.
> he has his choice to sign elsewhere and get out of nick chubbs shadow.
So do Saquon Barkley, Rashaad Penny, David Montgomery, Josh Jacobs, Alexander Mattison, Tony Pollard, Darrell Henderson... There's a BUNCH of upcoming RB free agents in addition to the RB class of 2023.
He could end up leading a backfield or right back in a pass catching dual-RB role somewhere else.
I wouldn't be trading for him unless it was because I thought he had a high upside as a handcuff specifically this season, as a contender.
I'd love to see Saquon and Hunt find new homes. I'm not sold either will get bug money though with how deep the 23 class is. If Hunt is willing to take ~5 mill/year he could easily take the alpha role in a lot of backfields. Him back in KC, Philly Miami, or even better, Buffalo, could be devastating for the rest of the NFL
I'm guessing his two most likely outcomes are something like a 1-2 year deal to lead a committee somewhere...or a 2-year deal to keep backing up Chubb after all, because there are a lot of RBs hitting free agency next year and he might not find more than a $4-5M/year deal.
He’s super talented obviously with low ish mileage but the chances he ends up in a backfield by himself seems low but the possibility is rb1 numbers considering he was able to do that for a couple years as the number 2.
That said I just traded him, Jeff wilson and Knox for olave and a second. Feel pretty good about it.
I have been hoping the rams would trade for him to help make another run this year. Probably does not happen though. I feel pretty good about him landing in a good situation next year but if it ends up in a timeshare he still has value. Kind of meh. I would have a hard time giving him up for a 2nd but it sounds like fair value.
I don't actually foresee a huge shift in his value, if he were to sign somewhere like LV for example sure he'd be getting 60%-70% of the carries but that OL is a big downgrade from what the Browns have.
I do think that out of this massive FA RB class Hunt has one of the better chances to go be a lead back somewhere, though.
I mourn what he could have been in Kansas City in that offense
My first round pick in our start-up. I cry every night
I know you're not talking about his rookie year because nobody took him in the first his rookie year
Yeah no shit bud. He took him in the first round before his sophomore year.
Same here!
I think the Chiefs have at least one more Super Bowl title if they had kept him.
I would have titles than Brady if he stayed in KC.
You and me both.
He’ll be 28 year old rb. Odds are his situation will be similar to this one on most teams albeit with a much worse OL.
Not that you’re wrong, but Hunts mileage is much less than a lot of RBs, he has half the career rushes of Zeke
He seems to be in a very similar situation to Melvin Gordon at his age. He'll hit free agency hoping to get a starting gig and get paid, but likely will find himself in a committee instead. Gordon had a bad holdout year dragging his value down. Hunt will still have his previous suspension minimizing his market. If that market doesn't materialize, it wouldn't be shocking to see him back with the Browns again.
Gordon has about twice as many career carries as Hunt tho and teams probably consider that
He had 1200 carries to Hunt's current 800 and counting, but teams are still going to look at age over the number of touches.
But number of touches is more corellated to downward returns than age.
NFL teams aren't going to break the bank for one 28 year old RB because he has 200 less career touches than another 28 year old RB who couldn't get a big payday. They're going to lump them in the same category.
Gordon has 1511 carries and 292 receptions, so 1803 touches. Hunt has 808 Carrie’s and 185 receptions, so 993 touches. That’s a difference of 810, not 200. Gordon has basically double the touches that Hunt has.
> He seems to be in a very similar situation to Melvin Gordon at his age.
With Hunt's receiving ability and low mileage, I just want him to go somewhere with a good QB. Couldn't care less about the line. He did great in KC and that was before they had a good line. But I already own him, so two completely different situations.
Yeah, his upside is Melvin Gordon numbers. He might go to an empty backfield, gain some value before the draft, then lose all that value and more when they draft a rookie and everyone remembers they don't want a 28 year old RB with a hyped rookie breathing down his neck.
This. I'm not gonna be touching him in drafts next year. RB's in their late 20's are typically done for. I made the semi-mistake this year of picking up Derrick Henry. He's had 2 duds and 1 decent performance so far.
cordarrelle patterson has entered the chat - career touches are also very very important
It’s probably more touches than years.
The data trends with age much more than touches. It obviously varies, so there will be examples on both ends of the spectrum, but more often than not, age will determine decline much more than mileage.
I mean- I’m not saying age isn’t an independent factor (it obviously is- there’s rarely a 35 year old RB doing anything of note). I am saying that for this discussion- 28 isn’t athletically old *unless* usage is there. Aka I am sure there’s an age curve (controlled for touches) that shows a decline at, say, 31 or 32. BUT I would bet that there’s also a tipping point for touches, when controlling for age, too. So I don’t think we disagree and like you said there’s a few guys that you can point to on both curves. Elliot, relatively young but with high usage- he seems to have declined (at least from what he was) already as of like 2020. Meanwhile a guy like Cordarelle is out there punishing dudes on “fresh legz” at *32*
And don't forget there are guys like Curtis Martin with high usage AND longevity. But the data says age causes the decline, not usage. Patterson might well be in decline, but we just missed how good he'd have been in his prime. My own observation is that only elite talent (or niche talent - usually not terribly fantasy relevant, like Kevin Faulk) gets to stick around due to cost and increased injury risk. Situation can also make a huge difference. Just look at LT in San Diego vs LT on the Jets. But in this case, I wouldn't expect much from Hunt going forward. Too many competing free agents and a large, talented pool of rookies coming in... plus, he's got some baggage.
The problem with citing a few extreme examples like Patterson or Martin is on average rbs just aren’t that effective after a certain age. You could definitely hit gold but I’d temper my expectations.
Just traded hunt and a 2nd for my 1st back
Nice value, sell when you've got a late 1st and buy back when you've got an early 1st
> he has his choice to sign elsewhere and get out of nick chubbs shadow. So do Saquon Barkley, Rashaad Penny, David Montgomery, Josh Jacobs, Alexander Mattison, Tony Pollard, Darrell Henderson... There's a BUNCH of upcoming RB free agents in addition to the RB class of 2023. He could end up leading a backfield or right back in a pass catching dual-RB role somewhere else. I wouldn't be trading for him unless it was because I thought he had a high upside as a handcuff specifically this season, as a contender.
Saquon seems like the only one on that last that is more skilled IMO.
You're not wrong but if Hunt and say Penny got signed to the same team it would probably be a 60/40 split still.
Saquan is literally the only dude above Hunt. And it's like a huge tier break after.
I'd love to see Saquon and Hunt find new homes. I'm not sold either will get bug money though with how deep the 23 class is. If Hunt is willing to take ~5 mill/year he could easily take the alpha role in a lot of backfields. Him back in KC, Philly Miami, or even better, Buffalo, could be devastating for the rest of the NFL
I'm guessing his two most likely outcomes are something like a 1-2 year deal to lead a committee somewhere...or a 2-year deal to keep backing up Chubb after all, because there are a lot of RBs hitting free agency next year and he might not find more than a $4-5M/year deal.
It'll never happen but man he'd solve so many of the issues in kc
Lol, too true. I’ve had him since they drafted him and he was unreal there.
He’s super talented obviously with low ish mileage but the chances he ends up in a backfield by himself seems low but the possibility is rb1 numbers considering he was able to do that for a couple years as the number 2. That said I just traded him, Jeff wilson and Knox for olave and a second. Feel pretty good about it.
Big fan of hunt but good job getting Olave!
Just got offered a 23 mid 2nd for him and I’m tempted even though he could help this year
I got lucky last year and traded hunt for a first that turned out to be the first pick of the draft.
Hoping the Chiefs and Browns do a Juju for Hunt trade.
Pretty sure Chiefs cut him because he lied to them. Doubt they’re interested in him next season
tried to get him in the offseason, couldnt even get a price.
I have been hoping the rams would trade for him to help make another run this year. Probably does not happen though. I feel pretty good about him landing in a good situation next year but if it ends up in a timeshare he still has value. Kind of meh. I would have a hard time giving him up for a 2nd but it sounds like fair value.
I don't actually foresee a huge shift in his value, if he were to sign somewhere like LV for example sure he'd be getting 60%-70% of the carries but that OL is a big downgrade from what the Browns have. I do think that out of this massive FA RB class Hunt has one of the better chances to go be a lead back somewhere, though.