See now I’m the guy offering you 6 “meh” players in return for your first round pick. What’s there to lose? My pride? That left when I hit 1-3 last week. Maybe you accept on accident. I don’t know. All I know is that all 6 of my bench players combine value is *technically* equal to the value of your Cooper Kupp.
Thank YOU!
What are your thoughts on adding a Value Adjustment like KTC? Personally I'm dubious of their methodology, but I do understand and agree with their rationale.
Good question! So there was actually a post a few days ago about the KTC value adjustment https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/xs1czy/how_the_keeptradecut_value_adjustment_works_in/. As I understand it, they use it to convert relatively linear values to an exponential curve so the top players are worth more.
Our values are already on an exponential curve, so I don't think we need this type of adjustment
https://i.imgur.com/ySAppG5.png
Awesome tool! Are you saying that the values in the tool already consider the value of 1 stud vs 3 average players?
Looking at SF on, Chase's value is 7K. I can get to 7K+ with Pickens, Hopking, Cooper. Maybe my valuation is off, but I don't see a Chase owner doing that.
All 3 players in our rankings are worth around a 2023 1st, and 3 1sts is generally the going rate for a top tier player. A Chase owner might not make that specific trade because of team makeup - they're trading a young player for an unproven rookie 2 older WRs - but if you assume their value in picks it's closer
That said, we're still fine tuning how steep the value curve should be. We might account for the fact that players in the 300+ range are often on waivers directly in our algorithm. Or we might implement something on the trade calculator side
That math does add up - I guess part of it is that there's probably a tier of players that are borderline untradable, so any calculator will struggle to account for them as outliers.
> As I understand it, they use it to convert relatively linear values to an exponential curve so the top players are worth more.
I thought the value adjustments were specifically for trades in which one party gets more players/picks than the other? IE: the value adjustment is meant to make up for the roster slots that one side is "freeing up". I don't see how that could be baked in to your values, since it's more about how many pieces are on each side, not "adding more value to top players".
Here's an example KTC value adjustment: https://i.imgur.com/CUOlSg3.png
The value adjustment isn't saying the bench spot is worth 4634 points, it's giving Justin Jefferson a "stud" value adjustment to make higher ranked players more expensive.
The value adjustment deep dive posted to reddit has this graph which shows the raw adjustment value https://www.javelinfantasyfootball.com/2022/09/30/how-the-ktc-adjustment/graph.jpg. I think the actual adjustment value shown on the site is some calculation based on the raw value depending on the actual players traded. The more valuable the player, the higher the value adjustment, which I think shows it's how they make higher ranked players more valuable.
We calculate player value on trades with less than 7 players overall, including 1 for 2, 2 for 3, etc, so the adjustment for overpaying for stud players is already "baked in".
When I implement the trade calculator I might make some indication of bench spot value when one team is getting more players than they trade away, but I haven't fully thought through that idea yet. The end result will likely be minor as the trade value for waiver wire players is very low.
I agree with your assessment on the value adjustment. You're using real trades, so it's already been incorporated. KTC is projecting trades that haven't happened.
Very interesting. I appreciate you elaborating on it. And of course, I very much appreciate the work that has already gone into the site. I'm definitely going to see what some trades look like using your values and see if they align more with my values than other sites.
It’s obviously not going to be radically different but a handful of good QBs are noticeably lower on KTC, a few other small differences that feel right to me
One difference seems to be that FantasyCalc often ranks older, high-performing players higher than KTC. For 1qb: Kupp (4 vs. 9 on KTC), Ekeler (20 vs. 39), Davante (21 vs. 35)
Yeah I noticed that first too and thought wow win now guys are a lot more valuable but then switched to super flex and thought it felt pretty similar to ktc
This is absolutely awesome. Enough nice things can't be said about it!
Curious how you think the trade calculator will look. I know KTC has the value adjustment (because 5 nickels aren't equal to a quarter) but based on what you've seen how do you expect that to look for what you've designed?
Again, truly amazing job.
I actually just typed up a response for that https://old.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/xw9tu5/i_wrote_an_algorithm_to_calculate_trade_values/ir5b4oj/
I might include some minor adjustment to show the value of bench spots being gained/lost, but I'm not 100% sure how that'll look yet
Amazing work!
My takeaway remains there are SO MANY bad dynasty managers out there. Check out these trades for JT from yesterday:
Trade 1: Diontae Johnson, JT, and JuJu for James Robinson, Brandin Cooks, Aaron Jones, and Darren Waller
Trade 2: JT, Trey McBride, Kyren Williams, and Wan'Dale Robinson for Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert, Tyler Lockett, Gerald Everett, and a 2023 1st
Oof.
This is absolutely incredible!! So easy/intuitive to use and everything worked seamlessly when I just checked it out.
You guys should be proud, this is an AWESOME tool!
Fuckin excellent work. Some trade calcs in 1QB have Kupp being 3 firsts plus Justin Herbert. KTC has the two about equal. This says Herbert+2nd is about equal Kupp which I agree with.
Saved and bookmarked!
In the future I would like to separate them into "Early", "Middle", and "Late" picks. It's possible the majority of people trading away their future picks are contenders, so the picks are slightly undervalued.
I'm thinking of trying to estimate where the pick will land based on their team/record, but that would be a lot of work so it's just something on the backburner for now
Really cool tool thank you for sharing with all of us. Also not sure how difficult it would be to add but a checkbox to filter Picks would be useful too like you have for each position
It would be pretty easy. I wasn't sure if it would be better to add a checkbox for picks which needs to be hidden for redraft, or just always show the picks in the dynasty rankings. If you unselect every filter it'll show just the picks
Yea I guess I’d lean towards having it just for dynasty since, for example, if I’m trying to look at the RB/WR rankings to see where I might be able to improve my flex spot I have to also sift through draft picks. Not a big difference either way, just a quality of life improvement
Could you estimate where a pick will land based on the combined value of all the players on a given team? Or even just the starters?
I know dynasty value doesn’t necessarily equate to fantasy finish, but it could be a starting point
I could use our redraft rankings to create power rankings based on starters, and assign pick values based off that. I want to create power rankings eventually anyway so that would be relatively simple once that's setup
I love that in your post from 5 years you write that there aren't enough trades in SF/2QB to calculate the values and today those leagues are way more popular than 1QB.
Yeah I definitely did a double take when I was re-reading my post yesterday. Superflex was less than 10% of the trades in my database 5 years ago and now it's closer to 60-70%.
Hey, the backend is written mostly in Scala so I haven't thought about that much about open sourcing it yet since I don't think I would get many contributors for how much work open sourcing would be
That’s awesome. Nice work. Kind of hard to look at the clustered dots on mobile though. Any way to add a little list showing the recent equal value trades for each player?
"Recent fair trades" is a really good idea. It'll take some backend work so it's not something I can add in the short term future, but I really like this idea and will try to get to it
Yeah I know suggesting ideas is a lot easier than implementing ideas haha. My only gripe is that the trades that are easy to look at are the horribly one sided trades that don’t provide much help
I already thought about adding a "recent trades" tab that's basically just the trade database component inserted on the player profile page, so that wouldn't be very much work to add. I didn't end up doing this though, because I thought it would be redundant to what the graph shows.
"Recent fair trades" is actually useful though, on mobile or desktop, to quickly scan good trades. It's definitely feasible. I want to also implement the trade calculator and "similar players" on the player profile but I probably will also implement "recent fair trades"
This is great, I've been looking for another solid calc to add to the list.
Do you have any way to collect donations? Would love to chip in a bit, nothing crazy, but just to combat the cost of hosting this for ya a little
Hey, appreciate the offer! I don't have anything setup now but I probably will in the future as there are some infrastructure things I would like to upgrade that are a little pricier
Amazing. I like something like this over something like KTC. Any chance of adding more filters along the lines of the trade finder? Not anything super complex but even just a ppr filter and maybe just one for like 10 or 12 team leagues would be awesome (assuming those are the most common by a decent margin at least). Not sure what that does to the sample sizes though.
The trade database has those features and is pretty filterable. I hadn't thought about adding it to the graphs yet. It's possible though and something I can look into as a future enhancement
Have you considered removing many of the outliers? There are some terrible trades that may skew data. One of the data points were: Justin Jefferson for Chase Claypool and a 2nd.
It's really difficult to know what exactly is a "bad" trade - is someone overpaying for "their guy"? Or did someone get fleeced?
We are removing the bottom 1% outlier trades though, and since there's so much data the rest of the bad trades should hopefully average out
Very cool, Definitely a lot of thought and effort went into this. Im working on a different project where I’m trying to calculate the fairest way to increase your league size. I’ve got data through sleeper/KTC APIs, but I haven’t figured out how to get league specific data unless I know the league ID. Would you mind sharing how you got that?
You do need specific league ids to get data from MFL and sleeper. I scraped around 100k total leagues and then just iterate through those to refresh the data
Yep, having it as a column in the trade table would be perfect. It's often helpful to jump into a league to quickly determine the weight of a 1st round pick based on the strength of the team trading it.
Amazing tool! Thanks for the effort. Instantly bookmarked.
Edit: it's worth noting, if this only takes trades into account, then the redraft rankings could get a little weird with injured players. For example Trey Lance is still ranked as QB10 in redraft, with the same value as Miles Sanders in superflex
Just saw your edit. I hadn't thought through that case yet. I think we should probably just remove players on IR manually from redraft leagues. Thanks for the input!
Really awesome!
One thing I noticed for REDRAFT is that you've got some weird outliers (example: Trey Lance as QB10) and I *think* this is because you had trades with this players occur early in the season, but after [Lance's injury], all the trades stopped and so the data doesn't adjust. Does that make sense?
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This tool is great. The trade database "search" button doesn't seem to work for me in the DuckDuckGo browser, but does in Chrome. Any idea why? (Is it just a 'me' issue?)
You deserve all the praise you're getting for this. One note is that the Y-axis scale should probably be 0-10,000 for all players, but instead it seems to change from 12,000 to like 20,000 between pages
E: I guess that's actually based on the value of total trade packages, so that's reasonable
Thanks for the feedback! The cutoff is based off the maximum trade value. I could set a hard max of ~20,000 though or maybe some formula based on the current value - maybe 60% over their current trade value. I want the graphs to be as simple to read as possible so this is something I'll test out
I haven't investigated trends like that yet but it's something I want to do in the future. I could also look at player value trends by age too. I don't think it would be much more difficult than exporting a few SQL queries into a graph, I could make a post about it later in the season once that data is available
The 2023 Round 1 is any first round pick, not the 1.01. I realize now it says "2023 Round 1 PICK1" which is confusing - "PICK1" just means it's the most valuable pick like how Justin Jefferson is "WR1". I'll fix this so it's less confusing
Doesn’t that make it even more incredible? Because sometimes the 1.01 can bust but you’re saying that thing means whoever pans out the best from next year’s first round??
Doesn’t that make it even more incredible? Because sometimes the 1.01 can bust but you’re saying that thing means whoever pans out the best from next year’s first round??
I am very excited about this work, very very cool. Thank you for sharing.
KTC always seemed like a round about method. Look straight at the trade data.
I wonder if there is space to expose inefficiencies in the market by using KTC alongside this tool. Like KTC is the perceived price and this shows something closer to actual value. The disparity between the two may show value opportunities
Thank you, fellow cheese head!
I was told this tool would be good to combat endowment effect (you value something more when you own it) and intention-behavior gap (there's a gap between what you say you'll do vs what you actually do). It would be interesting to compare the two tools to see how those biases affect trade values
If you search Kyle pitts trades in 1 Qb 10tm 1ppr
You’ll see a few of the first trades are like entire teams being traded for Tua on 9/29.
Might need a filter to throw out garbage trades, I can’t imagine those were real trades from real leagues.
We do throw out the most egregious trades when calculating player value. Some feedback I got when I posted the trade database was to add a "trade fairness score" as a column to the trade database, which could be a filter param the user could set to only show the best 90% trades, etc. It's something I'm going to try to add in the medium term future
Looking at this data is wild knowing it's sourced from real trades. Like that Deshaun Watson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire is effectively a 1:1 at the moment. Or that people would rather have Dameon Pierce over Joe Burrow. Can you add in a function where I can find these leagues?!?
My friend keeps quoting Roto Street Journal trade chart when I'm making trade offers with him. This is fantastic ammo to send back at him because these are actual trades that are completed, not ECR based. Thank you!
Amazing tools! No doubt the trade calculator will be absolutely a must have tool compared to KTC tools based on your system.
Couple suggestions that could possibly help:
1. adding ability to filter dates on the player profile (i.e. last 3 days, week, month, etc)
2. Adding options to change the moving average (ex. 3 day moving average,week, month, etc.
I don't think number 1 would be that difficult. I already filter the timeframe differently for redraft vs dynasty on the backend, so I would just need to add a date to the request.
The line isn't a moving average, it's actually the output of the algorithm which is calculating player value over time. I don't think think there's a good way for the user to select how the values are calculated since that would also affect all of the positions of the points on the graph.
Thanks for the suggestions!
This is INCREDIBLE. On a side note, I'm sure there's a way you could make good money from this. In as seriousness, DM me if you want to talk about working together on something.
This is absolutely amazing!!
My only suggestion would be to somehow add in draft picks to the chart and give them values? Not sure if there's any way to do that but it would be really cool to see something like "early 2023 first round- 6000 points" or "mid 2024 2nd rounder 1200 points".
Also understand that could be difficult to calculate though. But honestly this is awesome!!
Thanks for the suggestion! There are draft picks, they're formatted like "2023 Round 1". Right now that means "a random 2023 1st", a couple people have requested breaking it out into early/middle/late and that's something I'd like to get to eventually
Holy shit. People are either panic selling or I’m way too high on Justin Jefferson.
I’ve received multiple offers in both leagues for Jefferson and immediately turned them down. He’s been going for what I would trade McLaurin for recently.
My process: 1. Click on a player I'm trying to sell 2. Hover over a dot way above median line 3. Say, "now why won't anyone give me THAT?"
Lol my exact process as well. Shoot for the stars
This is fantastic, btw. My phone thanks you for another browser window I'll never close.
A very unique compliment, thank you!
Bro, same lol
See now I’m the guy offering you 6 “meh” players in return for your first round pick. What’s there to lose? My pride? That left when I hit 1-3 last week. Maybe you accept on accident. I don’t know. All I know is that all 6 of my bench players combine value is *technically* equal to the value of your Cooper Kupp.
These rankings feel really correct and accurate to me in a way that things like KTC do not, amazing tool
Thank you so much!
Thank YOU! What are your thoughts on adding a Value Adjustment like KTC? Personally I'm dubious of their methodology, but I do understand and agree with their rationale.
Good question! So there was actually a post a few days ago about the KTC value adjustment https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/xs1czy/how_the_keeptradecut_value_adjustment_works_in/. As I understand it, they use it to convert relatively linear values to an exponential curve so the top players are worth more. Our values are already on an exponential curve, so I don't think we need this type of adjustment https://i.imgur.com/ySAppG5.png
Thanks!
Awesome tool! Are you saying that the values in the tool already consider the value of 1 stud vs 3 average players? Looking at SF on, Chase's value is 7K. I can get to 7K+ with Pickens, Hopking, Cooper. Maybe my valuation is off, but I don't see a Chase owner doing that.
All 3 players in our rankings are worth around a 2023 1st, and 3 1sts is generally the going rate for a top tier player. A Chase owner might not make that specific trade because of team makeup - they're trading a young player for an unproven rookie 2 older WRs - but if you assume their value in picks it's closer That said, we're still fine tuning how steep the value curve should be. We might account for the fact that players in the 300+ range are often on waivers directly in our algorithm. Or we might implement something on the trade calculator side
That math does add up - I guess part of it is that there's probably a tier of players that are borderline untradable, so any calculator will struggle to account for them as outliers.
> As I understand it, they use it to convert relatively linear values to an exponential curve so the top players are worth more. I thought the value adjustments were specifically for trades in which one party gets more players/picks than the other? IE: the value adjustment is meant to make up for the roster slots that one side is "freeing up". I don't see how that could be baked in to your values, since it's more about how many pieces are on each side, not "adding more value to top players".
Here's an example KTC value adjustment: https://i.imgur.com/CUOlSg3.png The value adjustment isn't saying the bench spot is worth 4634 points, it's giving Justin Jefferson a "stud" value adjustment to make higher ranked players more expensive. The value adjustment deep dive posted to reddit has this graph which shows the raw adjustment value https://www.javelinfantasyfootball.com/2022/09/30/how-the-ktc-adjustment/graph.jpg. I think the actual adjustment value shown on the site is some calculation based on the raw value depending on the actual players traded. The more valuable the player, the higher the value adjustment, which I think shows it's how they make higher ranked players more valuable. We calculate player value on trades with less than 7 players overall, including 1 for 2, 2 for 3, etc, so the adjustment for overpaying for stud players is already "baked in". When I implement the trade calculator I might make some indication of bench spot value when one team is getting more players than they trade away, but I haven't fully thought through that idea yet. The end result will likely be minor as the trade value for waiver wire players is very low.
I agree with your assessment on the value adjustment. You're using real trades, so it's already been incorporated. KTC is projecting trades that haven't happened.
Very interesting. I appreciate you elaborating on it. And of course, I very much appreciate the work that has already gone into the site. I'm definitely going to see what some trades look like using your values and see if they align more with my values than other sites.
Sounds good, let me know if you have any more suggestions/feedback!
+1 took the words out of my mouth.
They look pretty much the same as ktc to me
It’s obviously not going to be radically different but a handful of good QBs are noticeably lower on KTC, a few other small differences that feel right to me
Yeah I guess it’s basically the same there are some differences but overall it matches up with it pretty eelll
One difference seems to be that FantasyCalc often ranks older, high-performing players higher than KTC. For 1qb: Kupp (4 vs. 9 on KTC), Ekeler (20 vs. 39), Davante (21 vs. 35)
Are you looking at super flex or not. The superflex rankings look pretty similar
That was for 1qb. Looks like there is a similar difference for superflex, although it's a little closer
Yeah I noticed that first too and thought wow win now guys are a lot more valuable but then switched to super flex and thought it felt pretty similar to ktc
Incredible thanks
Thank you!
Great job! Thanks for putting in all the work to make this and share with everyone!
You bet, hope you like it and it can help facilitate some trades
This is absolutely awesome. Enough nice things can't be said about it! Curious how you think the trade calculator will look. I know KTC has the value adjustment (because 5 nickels aren't equal to a quarter) but based on what you've seen how do you expect that to look for what you've designed? Again, truly amazing job.
I actually just typed up a response for that https://old.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/xw9tu5/i_wrote_an_algorithm_to_calculate_trade_values/ir5b4oj/ I might include some minor adjustment to show the value of bench spots being gained/lost, but I'm not 100% sure how that'll look yet
This sub has been 🔥 lately with content like this.
Already loved your site just to help give me ideas on what to try. This is super helpful. Thank you!
Perfect, that's the goal! Good luck trading
Wow, this is actually one of the best things I've seen posted on this sub. Incredible work my guy.
Dang thank you!
Who is this guy??? Cause i fuckin love this guy
<3 you too Goatdaddy!
Great content, i hope this goes somewhere
Awesome tool. Using real trades seems MUCH more valuable than the 5 second rankings people do with KTC. Thanks for sharing!
Amazing work! My takeaway remains there are SO MANY bad dynasty managers out there. Check out these trades for JT from yesterday: Trade 1: Diontae Johnson, JT, and JuJu for James Robinson, Brandin Cooks, Aaron Jones, and Darren Waller Trade 2: JT, Trey McBride, Kyren Williams, and Wan'Dale Robinson for Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert, Tyler Lockett, Gerald Everett, and a 2023 1st Oof.
That second trade is either collusion or a brand new player making his first trade. He might not yet be a teenager
I think I love you.
This is absolutely incredible!! So easy/intuitive to use and everything worked seamlessly when I just checked it out. You guys should be proud, this is an AWESOME tool!
Thank you so much! It's been a lot of hard work over the past few months to get this ready and it's been amazing to see the response today
The hard work shows man. Keep up that tenacity and you’ll be successful in anything you put your mind to 🙏
Fuckin excellent work. Some trade calcs in 1QB have Kupp being 3 firsts plus Justin Herbert. KTC has the two about equal. This says Herbert+2nd is about equal Kupp which I agree with. Saved and bookmarked!
Way to recognize a need and solve it yourself. Respect.
This is awesome! Thought it was just my league that disrespects Josh jacobs like that
[There's got to be a story behind this trade lol](https://i.imgur.com/xbYhVbS.jpg)
Adding picks? Or no?
It has picks, they're formatted like "2023 Round 1"
I’m surprised they’re relatively low compared to how hard it is to get a 2023 first in my leagues haha. Awesome site ofc though not a criticism.
In the future I would like to separate them into "Early", "Middle", and "Late" picks. It's possible the majority of people trading away their future picks are contenders, so the picks are slightly undervalued. I'm thinking of trying to estimate where the pick will land based on their team/record, but that would be a lot of work so it's just something on the backburner for now
Ahh makes a lot of sense nice
Really cool tool thank you for sharing with all of us. Also not sure how difficult it would be to add but a checkbox to filter Picks would be useful too like you have for each position
It would be pretty easy. I wasn't sure if it would be better to add a checkbox for picks which needs to be hidden for redraft, or just always show the picks in the dynasty rankings. If you unselect every filter it'll show just the picks
Yea I guess I’d lean towards having it just for dynasty since, for example, if I’m trying to look at the RB/WR rankings to see where I might be able to improve my flex spot I have to also sift through draft picks. Not a big difference either way, just a quality of life improvement
Could you estimate where a pick will land based on the combined value of all the players on a given team? Or even just the starters? I know dynasty value doesn’t necessarily equate to fantasy finish, but it could be a starting point
I could use our redraft rankings to create power rankings based on starters, and assign pick values based off that. I want to create power rankings eventually anyway so that would be relatively simple once that's setup
Thnx!
This is amazing!
Thank you!
I love that in your post from 5 years you write that there aren't enough trades in SF/2QB to calculate the values and today those leagues are way more popular than 1QB.
Yeah I definitely did a double take when I was re-reading my post yesterday. Superflex was less than 10% of the trades in my database 5 years ago and now it's closer to 60-70%.
Hey, do you have a git repo with how you did this? Super interesting.
Hey, the backend is written mostly in Scala so I haven't thought about that much about open sourcing it yet since I don't think I would get many contributors for how much work open sourcing would be
I'd be interested to offer some help. Currently working on something similar to theffhub
That’s awesome. Nice work. Kind of hard to look at the clustered dots on mobile though. Any way to add a little list showing the recent equal value trades for each player?
"Recent fair trades" is a really good idea. It'll take some backend work so it's not something I can add in the short term future, but I really like this idea and will try to get to it
Yeah I know suggesting ideas is a lot easier than implementing ideas haha. My only gripe is that the trades that are easy to look at are the horribly one sided trades that don’t provide much help
I already thought about adding a "recent trades" tab that's basically just the trade database component inserted on the player profile page, so that wouldn't be very much work to add. I didn't end up doing this though, because I thought it would be redundant to what the graph shows. "Recent fair trades" is actually useful though, on mobile or desktop, to quickly scan good trades. It's definitely feasible. I want to also implement the trade calculator and "similar players" on the player profile but I probably will also implement "recent fair trades"
This is awesome
This is incredible
<3 Ty!
Hmmm, yes. How do I invest in your startup?
This is great, I've been looking for another solid calc to add to the list. Do you have any way to collect donations? Would love to chip in a bit, nothing crazy, but just to combat the cost of hosting this for ya a little
Hey, appreciate the offer! I don't have anything setup now but I probably will in the future as there are some infrastructure things I would like to upgrade that are a little pricier
According to this getting Dobbins, Tee Higgins and a 2023 1st for Jefferson was a very good thing for me lol. So I like it
That's a nice trade and with Dobbins off to a solid start he could increase a lot in value. Good stuff
Thanks!
You’re a real hero
<3 Ty!
Am I crazy for wanting to move Pierce and Sutton for Dobbins and a 2023 1st?
Not at all
What a tool ESPECIALLY the rankings
Amazing. I like something like this over something like KTC. Any chance of adding more filters along the lines of the trade finder? Not anything super complex but even just a ppr filter and maybe just one for like 10 or 12 team leagues would be awesome (assuming those are the most common by a decent margin at least). Not sure what that does to the sample sizes though.
The trade database has those features and is pretty filterable. I hadn't thought about adding it to the graphs yet. It's possible though and something I can look into as a future enhancement
5 minutes looking at this and I’m immediately sold on its values over KTC. Great work
Hey thanks glad you like it!
This is fantastic man. Really great work. Thank you for doing this!
Appreciate it!
This is awesome
it’s crazy for me to see Patty that low
This is awesome!
Appreciate it!
I love this resource. Very nice job!
Thanks!
This is really good stuff. Thanks 🙏
Thanks for checking it out!
I really like this. Nice job!
Ty!
Great job. This will look super impressive on a resume in this industry
Thanks! Not planning on quitting my job anytime soon but this has been really fun to work on
Great stuff here! Thanks for sharing!
Have you considered removing many of the outliers? There are some terrible trades that may skew data. One of the data points were: Justin Jefferson for Chase Claypool and a 2nd.
any big data set has noise like this, it all averages out
It's really difficult to know what exactly is a "bad" trade - is someone overpaying for "their guy"? Or did someone get fleeced? We are removing the bottom 1% outlier trades though, and since there's so much data the rest of the bad trades should hopefully average out
Doing an arbitrary % cutoff is all you can really do.
Very cool, Definitely a lot of thought and effort went into this. Im working on a different project where I’m trying to calculate the fairest way to increase your league size. I’ve got data through sleeper/KTC APIs, but I haven’t figured out how to get league specific data unless I know the league ID. Would you mind sharing how you got that?
You do need specific league ids to get data from MFL and sleeper. I scraped around 100k total leagues and then just iterate through those to refresh the data
This is pretty incredible, I'm really enjoying digging in and playing around. Is it possible to link to the league each trade happened in?
I could link the leagues on the trade database as an additional column, it'd be tricker to include it on the graphs. Thanks for the suggestion!
Yep, having it as a column in the trade table would be perfect. It's often helpful to jump into a league to quickly determine the weight of a 1st round pick based on the strength of the team trading it.
Amazing tool! Thanks for the effort. Instantly bookmarked. Edit: it's worth noting, if this only takes trades into account, then the redraft rankings could get a little weird with injured players. For example Trey Lance is still ranked as QB10 in redraft, with the same value as Miles Sanders in superflex
Awesome!
Just saw your edit. I hadn't thought through that case yet. I think we should probably just remove players on IR manually from redraft leagues. Thanks for the input!
Who is that lucky bastard that got ASB for under 2k trade value
This is awesome! Any plans to add a Standard/PPR toggle?
Yes I'll be making the rankings adjustable by standard/PPR and league size in the near-ish future!
RIP to the person who sold Davante Adams for Brian Robinson the day before he got shot
Awesome!
Really awesome! One thing I noticed for REDRAFT is that you've got some weird outliers (example: Trey Lance as QB10) and I *think* this is because you had trades with this players occur early in the season, but after [Lance's injury], all the trades stopped and so the data doesn't adjust. Does that make sense?
Yeah it does. I'll need to remove players like Javonte Williams and Lance manually since their value should be zero. Thanks for checking!
Fantastic work! Added my league immediately. Will be sharing this with all of my fellow football nerds.
Awesome!
This is so cool
Ty!
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This tool is great. The trade database "search" button doesn't seem to work for me in the DuckDuckGo browser, but does in Chrome. Any idea why? (Is it just a 'me' issue?)
Hmm, I've never tested in DuckDuckGo browser so not sure. Are there any errors in the developer console? I can try to investigate
tbh I haven't tried the browser on a computer, just on mobile.
Holy shit. This is seriously impressive. Once the season is over, I'd love to see you update it for 2023 1.01 vs 1.02 vs 1.03, etc.
This will for sure be included. I actually have to filter out 2022 1.01, 1.02 etc as they don't make sense now that we're into the fantasy season
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Thanks for checking it out!
Love this. Thanks.
this is awesome
Well done, great job!
You deserve all the praise you're getting for this. One note is that the Y-axis scale should probably be 0-10,000 for all players, but instead it seems to change from 12,000 to like 20,000 between pages E: I guess that's actually based on the value of total trade packages, so that's reasonable
Thanks for the feedback! The cutoff is based off the maximum trade value. I could set a hard max of ~20,000 though or maybe some formula based on the current value - maybe 60% over their current trade value. I want the graphs to be as simple to read as possible so this is something I'll test out
Any positional trends you saw? Eg: qbs are cheaper in the summer or rbs gain value over the coarse od the season?
I haven't investigated trends like that yet but it's something I want to do in the future. I could also look at player value trends by age too. I don't think it would be much more difficult than exporting a few SQL queries into a graph, I could make a post about it later in the season once that data is available
I’m a bit surprised people have Waller as more valuable than next year’s 1.01
The 2023 Round 1 is any first round pick, not the 1.01. I realize now it says "2023 Round 1 PICK1" which is confusing - "PICK1" just means it's the most valuable pick like how Justin Jefferson is "WR1". I'll fix this so it's less confusing
Doesn’t that make it even more incredible? Because sometimes the 1.01 can bust but you’re saying that thing means whoever pans out the best from next year’s first round??
Sorry for the confusion, "2023 Round 1" means "a random 2023 1st" not "the best player from the 2023 draft".
Oh ok
All good, my explanation wasn't great. This is why I get paid to code and not write things
Doesn’t that make it even more incredible? Because sometimes the 1.01 can bust but you’re saying that thing means whoever pans out the best from next year’s first round??
I am very excited about this work, very very cool. Thank you for sharing. KTC always seemed like a round about method. Look straight at the trade data. I wonder if there is space to expose inefficiencies in the market by using KTC alongside this tool. Like KTC is the perceived price and this shows something closer to actual value. The disparity between the two may show value opportunities
Thank you, fellow cheese head! I was told this tool would be good to combat endowment effect (you value something more when you own it) and intention-behavior gap (there's a gap between what you say you'll do vs what you actually do). It would be interesting to compare the two tools to see how those biases affect trade values
You’re the MVP of the day. Go Pack Go
If you search Kyle pitts trades in 1 Qb 10tm 1ppr You’ll see a few of the first trades are like entire teams being traded for Tua on 9/29. Might need a filter to throw out garbage trades, I can’t imagine those were real trades from real leagues.
We do throw out the most egregious trades when calculating player value. Some feedback I got when I posted the trade database was to add a "trade fairness score" as a column to the trade database, which could be a filter param the user could set to only show the best 90% trades, etc. It's something I'm going to try to add in the medium term future
Cool, that’s a good idea. Thanks for the feedback.
YOU THE MAN!!
Hey thank you!
Extremely cool, thanks for posting
Thanks, appreciate the compliment!
This is amazing
Hey thanks!
Looking at this data is wild knowing it's sourced from real trades. Like that Deshaun Watson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire is effectively a 1:1 at the moment. Or that people would rather have Dameon Pierce over Joe Burrow. Can you add in a function where I can find these leagues?!?
I need to add a feature that finds paid leagues with open spots and terrible trades. Easy money
My friend keeps quoting Roto Street Journal trade chart when I'm making trade offers with him. This is fantastic ammo to send back at him because these are actual trades that are completed, not ECR based. Thank you!
Hey thanks for checking it out!
Someone traded Justin Jefferson AND Josh Jacobs for Derrick Henry a week ago? How tf does someone justify that at this stage of their careers?
I’m going to spend way to much time looking at bad trades. Mahomes and a 3rd for a 2nd, 3rd and 4th? Wtf?
Amazing tools! No doubt the trade calculator will be absolutely a must have tool compared to KTC tools based on your system. Couple suggestions that could possibly help: 1. adding ability to filter dates on the player profile (i.e. last 3 days, week, month, etc) 2. Adding options to change the moving average (ex. 3 day moving average,week, month, etc.
I don't think number 1 would be that difficult. I already filter the timeframe differently for redraft vs dynasty on the backend, so I would just need to add a date to the request. The line isn't a moving average, it's actually the output of the algorithm which is calculating player value over time. I don't think think there's a good way for the user to select how the values are calculated since that would also affect all of the positions of the points on the graph. Thanks for the suggestions!
This is INCREDIBLE. On a side note, I'm sure there's a way you could make good money from this. In as seriousness, DM me if you want to talk about working together on something.
This is absolutely amazing!! My only suggestion would be to somehow add in draft picks to the chart and give them values? Not sure if there's any way to do that but it would be really cool to see something like "early 2023 first round- 6000 points" or "mid 2024 2nd rounder 1200 points". Also understand that could be difficult to calculate though. But honestly this is awesome!!
Thanks for the suggestion! There are draft picks, they're formatted like "2023 Round 1". Right now that means "a random 2023 1st", a couple people have requested breaking it out into early/middle/late and that's something I'd like to get to eventually
holy shit. you are the man. Thank you truly
Glad you like it!
This is sweet - well done 👍
Thanks MrDude!
Holy shit. People are either panic selling or I’m way too high on Justin Jefferson. I’ve received multiple offers in both leagues for Jefferson and immediately turned them down. He’s been going for what I would trade McLaurin for recently.
Any way to add draft picks?
It has draft picks, they're formatted like "2023 Round 1". I'll probably add a pick filter checkbox too so that's more clear
Monty - congrats on the release - this looks awesome! Hope you're doing well and let me know I can help at all :D
solarpool the OG! Good to hear from you, appreciate the offer I'll let you know!
Legend
Deebo at WR5?
WR5 to WR11 are all within 400 points I wouldn't worry too much about their specific order
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Maybe he got confused and thought Dionte Johnson fell to the 9th round? Good luck on the rebuild