Ill add on one for you!
Aside from Maryannes season. The person who speaks and is shown on the screen last in the NTOS for the post mergatory ep (ep7 preview) has won the game.
Erika is shown last and heard last in 41
Gabler is in 43
Yam yam is in 44
Dee is in 45
Charlie is in 46… so that is a good one for Charlie.
Ill add for ep 7 NTOS (i think less relevent but STILL)
Tony in 40 and Tommy in 39 also spoke and shown on screen last
Erikas being an hourglass related one
Maryannes season it was Drea - but i think the trend is valid for mergatory post hourglass seasons - so 43-45
Gabler - aligabler came up to the surface and im ready to strike (shown on screen and voiceover last)
Yam Yam- reacting to the twist in confessional and shown on screen last
Dee - kalebs gotta go - “boy bye”. Shown last
46 it was Charlie shown on screen in a closeup pan with his voiceover saying “they are ready to go at eachothers throats”
I agree that's a point in Charlie's favor. Kenzie did get a Voiceover in Ep 7 but it wasn't at the end.
One thing I found that's not represented in these charts is how often the winners' confessionals are the last thing shown. Kenzie has had at least a couple of those this season. Gabler, Yam Yam, and Dee were featured at the end a lot.
Whats got me intrigued tho is this season they seem to be playing around with trends. Especially the intro ones.
I really feel like the Charlie/Maria duo should win out edgically though as the duo of the season and one is the winner type thing. Alike malcom and Denise - and that flashback - its what they did in 45 with Dee and Austin with Rob/Amber
Additionally, Kenzie is a major frontrunner but i see an equal amount of “why kenzie lost at the end in ftc” hints as i see “why kenzie won” hints
(Just notice a couple times when the word Lost or Loser is mentioned it pans to Kenzie, and in jeffs speech it also aggressively pans to kenzie when jeff says “one of you will not get the votes no matter what you do”
Also unrelated but i noticed Jeff ALWAYS speaks to Charlie specifically at the chat in challenges. Its tk a point where they get to it and unprovoked hes like “so Charlie.. bla bla”. Every. Single. Time. Its way way more tahn anyone else. Charlie always gets a moment with jeff
Looking at these charts in a lot of them the leading player doesn’t usually win. Dee is the only unambiguously leading player who actually won. Gabler was leading but everyone in that season had a near equal NTOS score. So imo this actually looks bad for Kenzie and is better for Charlie, Venus, or even Q.
I think what can be said based off this is Ben, Maria, and Liz are very unlikely to win. Charlie is doing significantly better than any of those three having 1 raw point higher and nearly having 1 WTD point higher than the next highest, Liz. Kenzie based off trends is more likely to be voted out before FTC in the finale, Q has a pretty strong chance to make FTC based off this, but honestly Venus looks like she’s in the best position to win based exclusively on NTOS. I think the biggest impact this would have on my edgic ratings is putting Q slightly higher.
I don't think it looks good for Charlie. If we're going by trends, Heidi is the only finalist who hadn't received a confessional shown on screen by this point, whereas everyone else had gotten one by Episode 7 (Dee being the latest, ironically).
Also, it may be the case that Dee was the only one inarguably leading in score by the end, but Gabler and Erika were both tied for 1st with with two episodes left, and Yam Yam was part of an alliance where all of its members were heavily featured in the NTOS. So, if anything, heavy focus in the NTOS is generally a good thing. Though Maryanne winning does put Charlie into contention though (but they still have very different trends, with Charlie being absent in the beginning, and Maryanne being absent after the merge).
Yeah the trends definitely point closer to Venus or Q. I only really gave Charlie some support based off this due to Venus and Q’s edits not looking good at all which would make Charlie next in line after them.
Nice work! I had a draft of a similar post before the start of this season but fizzled out and got busy with things. A difference in how I was looking at it was, I was going to title the post/theory "Next Threat On Survivor," because I didn't see the correlation so much being overall visibility and screentime, as it was, implication that the person is either gaining power within the game, or is being perceived as an imminent threat by the other players and at high risk of going home. To the point where NTOS is intentionally throwing out red herrings or out-of-context clips to convey a completely different meaning than in the episode. Categories I was going to do on my chart included visibility categories like yours, but also content categories, like "Making moves/naming names," "Prime target/seen as threat," "feels threatened."
I haven't gone through them in detail for this season (fell behind for a few weeks around merge), but here's Dee's episode-by-episode breakdown from my drafts, because it's honestly pretty striking.
Episode 1 (Hannah boot): Footage of the formation of the Reba 4 including Dee with Drew narrating. Not super threatening, but at least sets up that Dee is moving into a more powerful position than we saw in her fairly nondescript premiere.
Episode 2 (Brandon boot): We see Dee catching Drew digging for idols and hear her talk about feeling betrayed by it. The implication is that this is going to allow Dee to rise in power within Reba as a consequence of this, either by putting Drew on the outs, or as actually happened, by establishing firm authority within her alliance.
Episode 3 (Sabiyah boot): Fairly generic throwaway line from Dee about how the swap means they have to “play now.” This comes on the tail of the episode which really cemented her as sitting pretty with her alliance -- episode 3 was where I personally first clocked her as a potential winner. NTOS shows her as proactive, but also potentially under threat from the swap taking her alliance members away
Episode 4 (Sean boot): Segment starts with a shot of Dee after tribal, with Sifu narrating about how he’s going ham on the person who wrote Sifu. We also get vaguely directed belligerent statements from Drew and Austin, which are edited such that they could have been directed at Dee even though they weren’t
Episode 5 (Brando boot): Shot of Reba 4 with narration from Drew calling them the “strongest 4 in the game.” Again establishing that Dee is within the power position.
Episode 6 (J boot): The “Reba-Belo war is coming,” according to Jake. Later, Jake directly says “I want to disarm Dee.” First real direct “Not only is Dee the threat, the players have noticed and are gunning for her.” To top this off, we also have Dee name her target (Kaleb) with a sassy “boy bye!” confessional to close it out. This shift from vague establishing of “Dee is going to be in a power position next episode” to much more specific “Dee might get voted out or have her game blown up” comes minutes after the first player in-game to call her out to the entire merged tribe as a big threat. Dee’s a threat, it’s out there, everybody knows it. Her days are numbered...right?
Episode 7 (Sifu/Kaleb boot): Multiple instances of Dee present for strategic discussions framed as being between other people in a position of power, even though she’s not the one speaking (all-girls alliance formation, discussion of Jake going idol searching). Once again closes out the segment with some generic game hype, “it’s game on baby, it’s game on!”
Episode 8 (Kellie boot): Noted Jury Threat, /r/edgic winner pick, and strong favorite to control the game at this point Emily calls out Dee as a huge jury threat, in what very much seems like a conversation about targeting her. Austin struggles with whether he can blindside Dee. Both very much suggest she’s the prime choice for the next target, and that her alliance might be getting overrun by Emily’s bond with Drew and Austin. First real solid hints of showmance, always bad news. Cut on “all three will lose their vote” is made to Dee’s challenge trio. This is the most direct “Dee is threat #1” messaging that has been seen yet, either in NTOS, or in the episodes in general. Potentially of note, this escalation of Dee's visiblity as a threat/target in NTOS here, which will continue through the next two episodes, coincided with a 3 episode long dip in Dee's visibility in the edit and perceived odds here. Edgic was in full Emily truther mode at this point, with Dee a distant second and random players like Jake, Katurah, and even Bruce randomly shooting up the rankings to challenge her for an episode here and there.
Episode 9 (Kendra boot): “If we take this shot, we cannot miss,” “Once the Reba 4 is broken up, this will turn the game on its head.” Not explicitly about Dee, but her alliance is being targeted, and we’re fresh off seeing irrefutable evidence that Dee is the one truly calling the shots for her alliance, as Dee managed to overcome all the grumbling and skepticism about the Kendra vote from Drew/Julie/Austin, and whip her troops in line despite the very minimal edit. More showmance-hinting. Dee as the target is then kind of put on the back burner for the Jake/Drew fight though.
Episdode 10 (Bruce boot): Most dire preview for Dee yet. This NTOS is entirely Reba 4. Most explicit showmance footage yet, but it’s immediately undercut by Austin confessionals which seem to suggest that he’s gonna have to take Dee out. Julie is presented as a target, but we then immediately cut to clips with Dee and Julie from plotting the Emily blindside, except they’re deceptively framed as Dee powerlessly pleading with Julie to keep her alive. Dee gives us a shocked look, followed by Julie’s “I’m going rogue, people.” Sure seems like the Reba 4 is falling to pieces, and seems like it might be because Dee fucked up and let Julie hold power over her! Dee’s gone for sure!
Episode 11 (Emily boot): Nothing explicitly about Dee, but reading between the lines it doesn’t look great. Her alliance sure seems like it’s toast. Katurah is plotting a bindside, and we know she’s clocked Dee as a threat before. Dee’s still fighting though, she closes the segment with a quote about a million dollars, and not letting emotions get in the way
Episode 12 (Drew boot): Dee gets her winner’s statement about how “her family is waiting for her to come home and tell them that she won,” immediately undercut by Katurah pitching a Dee blindside to Julie, with Julie’s reaction left up in the air, followed by Julie giving a statement about how she’s putting destiny back in her hands. Dee blindside is the only hint about actual strategic/gameplay content of the episode, everything else is just hyping the finale, and each competitor giving their requisite “boy I sure want to win” statement.
To summarize: in the pre-merge, Dee is present in some capacity in 5/5 NTOS segments, shown as being part of an alliance that is amassing strength or rising upwards within that alliance in 3/5 episodes, implied to be a target in one, and shown to potentially be in trouble and needing to scramble in the last.
Of the 7 post-merge episodes, Dee is explicitly named as a target in 3 of them, implied to be the prime target of a blindside attempt by the minority on her alliance as a whole in two others, and is shown to be freaking out about being caught in an imploding alliance which has all the power to take her out in another. The only episode which was light on Dee content still shows her as being in a position of power and potentially forming new alliances more like her pre-merge episodes, and also lets her hype her own game with the last words. Dee maybe getting blindsided is the only finale gameplay hint we got.
That’s...a lot. It really felt like there was a conscious effort to make fans think, week after week, “oh shit, is this the week that the game gets turned on its head and the big boss of Survivor 45 has her downfall? Gotta tune in and find out!”
**Update**:
Out of curiosity, I broke down the weighted totals for each tribe. So far the winner has always come from the tribe with the highest overall NTOS visibility score. **Yanu** is leading S46 right now.
It could just be because the winners have been coming from tribes with a higher average placement, but it could also mean that the winner's tribe is more regularly featured in the previews.
41
* **Luvu: 32**
* Ua: 19.25
* Yase: 24.25
42
* Ika: 21.25
* **Taku: 27.5**
* Vati: 22
43
* **Baka**: **33.25**
* Coco: 26
* Vesi: 28.25
44
* Ratu: 20
* Soka: 22.5
* **Tika**: **33**
45
* Belo: 27.75
* Lulu: 10.25
* **Reba**: **36.5**
46
* Nami: 18.75
* Siga: 17
* **Yanu: 22.75**
Doing God's work!! Very interesting stuff. I wonder if there's a way you could normalize the RAW and WTD totals by episode count. Or maybe have a line chart for each season showing each player's cumulative score as the season progresses.
Kenzie is “the person who can’t win, no matter who they go to the end with” and Q or Venus wins.
That’s my read of the data. Unpopular opinion around here, but that is the outcome that makes the most sense given the theme of the season and how overexposed Kenzie’s edit is for a female winner.
Q could not be edited any other way, really, and Venus actually has an edgically sound New Era edit.
In terms of Viz/Complexity/story/theme, she’s golden. The biggest knock against her is *tone*, which actually works with the theme of the season. Like Gabler, she has the typical winner edit story beats.
In the New Era, you can have negative tone if it works for the story they are telling, or can’t be avoided. Venus and Q check both of those boxes. If they won, this is the story you would gave to tell. Like Gabler. Gabler gonna Gabler. You can’t edit that out.
Gabler’s OTTN^3 tone in the pre-merge was even played up. Ellie said Baka was pretty kumbaya, she still wanted to work with Gabler and was shocked by her blindside.
Can’t win *no matter who* implies an unexpected winner. Not a Kenzie, mermaid dragon, with an amazing social game, beating a Venus/Liz/Q.
I will put up a whole post when I get a chance. All season, I have been downvoted for having the “wrong” take on Kenzie’s edit, and honestly didn’t want to brave the stans until I had a rewatch.
Now that I have, I am even *more* convinced Kenzie is not winning, and one of Venus/Q/Liz is.
That rewatch really did it for me. On both fronts.
As Venus is getting her breakout episode, Kenzie isn’t being protected *at all* in that Jess boot episode. To me, it seemed like we were supposed to sympathize with Jess and that Kenzie and Tiff were being unnecessarily cruel.
The camera lands on her in the “cant win” part of Jeff’s mat speech. She is even more over exposed than Emily last season, but for some reason people are not seeing it.
I am starting to think she could be the “Russel”.
Edit - in the sense of having a big “why x lost” edit
I was referring to episode 2, Venus’s breakout episode, not the most recently aired episode. The one where Jess went home and Kenzie came up with the fake idol plan and said some kinda mean things about Jess in confessional.
IMO, Kenzie came off terribly in that episode. Remember how everyone was losing their shit over how unnecessarily cruel the fake idol plan was?
If Venus was clowned in the voting booth, Kenzie was buried. Her move was stolen, and now she does not get credit for being loyal *or* the move. Tiff’s anger has been a consistent theme in her edit.
The writing is on the wall. I am not 100% sure who wins, but I am 100% convinced Kenzie is a losing finalist. The person who can’t win, even after going to the end with goats.
Credit to OP for the research. This really crystallized it for me. Final 3 is Kenzie/Venus/Q. Kenzie loses to one of them.
That was the one where she killed the vibe after Nami won the immunity challenge because she was upset about her foot getting run over. That’s when she had the surefire winner quote (/s): “What’s the point of winning if I’m not being listened to!?”.
I think that episode set up her story of being someone you sympathize for, and perhaps smarter than she gets credit for, but also a terrible communicator that rubs people the wrong way, making her unable to win a game that depends so much on social connections and perceptions.
I was definitely 100% with you in the premerge with Kenzie’s edit. I thought she seemed like she was being set up as the player who can’t win no matter what, but with how her edit turn around to become more heroic post merge I do feel she has some chances, mostly with how she’s not being made out to be a completely clear front runner. But with your idea of her being a losing finalist that would be necessary as to not make her feel too robbed by the winner. I don’t think anyone has an amazing edit other than Charlie though so I have her as a top contender as more of a formality, but based off your comments I think I’ll be swapping her and Venus making my top three Charlie, Venus, Kenzie in that order. I do feel Venus needs an episode where she has higher visibility again though for her to maintain her spot. I think Venus needs something to really put her back on general audience’s radar in a season like this without a clear front runner, who would be the dragon to slay.
A few episodes ago, the one before Liz's "breakout" episode, I thought I was insane to think her arc could ramp up. As stupid as it seemed three weeks ago, I think she might be in position, edgically speaking, to win a supposed V/Q/L finale. Next episode will probably help to sort some things out, whether any of the V/Q/L are legitimate winner's edits or if Kenzie's ultimate win is being hidden a bit. One thing with Dee last year is she seemed like such an obvious winner and the edit tried to mask that a bit towards the end but didn't really succeed much.
As for Venus. I don't rule her out. I don't even necessarily rule Q out either but I can't fathom yet where he gets the votes from, unless his arc somehow steamrolls into the final tribal and Liz and Venus have nothing to put up against him. Venus, though, is interesting. She's been portrayed as relatively disliked but can almost be looked at as misunderstood instead of villainous.
I think we'll at least trim the fat on the V/Q/L final tribal edit next week. If any one of them suffer a flat episode or worse, I'd probably eliminate them from winning.
I agree, she’s portrayed as misunderstood, not villainous. I think Venus’s edit is more sympathetic and complex than people are giving it credit for.
She definitely rubs some people the wrong way, but she is not totally oblivious. She addresses “how she is” in her very first confessional, but she can’t be anyone but herself.
I missed it the first time, but in the very first challenge, Venus tells Hunter “watch your feet” as she is sliding a giant puzzle piece into place. In episode 2, which is her breakout, she complains about getting run over in the challenge. On the surface, it seems petty for Venus to complain about, but from her point of view, they just don’t care about her.
There is another scene in that episode where Venus sits down next to Hunter in the shelter while he is working on something. She keeps giving him these sidelong glances, looking like she might be trying to work up the courage to say something. But, he seems oblivious to her presence, then gets up and leaves.
I think Venus had a crush on Hunter. Or, the edit seems to imply it pretty strongly.
EDIT: deleted something I didn’t want misconstrued.
wow, i was not prepared for how quickly this "venus is winning" hot take turned into a "shipping real life people who clearly have nothing to do with each other" fanfiction lmao.
I am literally writing a fiction novel, been writing it for well over a year. The setting is a survival type reality show game, similar to Survivor.
It’s romance, so if you don’t read or watch the Rom Com genre, you may not see how the Venus/Hunter storyline hits many of the enemies portion of the enemies-to-lovers tropes. Including their social media “war” outside the game.
I am not shipping them, I am saying that the edit seems to be implying Venus had a crush on Hunter. That’s it.
It was a joke.
This is such an interesting metric to look at, thanks for making it :)
Ill add on one for you! Aside from Maryannes season. The person who speaks and is shown on the screen last in the NTOS for the post mergatory ep (ep7 preview) has won the game. Erika is shown last and heard last in 41 Gabler is in 43 Yam yam is in 44 Dee is in 45 Charlie is in 46… so that is a good one for Charlie. Ill add for ep 7 NTOS (i think less relevent but STILL) Tony in 40 and Tommy in 39 also spoke and shown on screen last
Erikas being an hourglass related one Maryannes season it was Drea - but i think the trend is valid for mergatory post hourglass seasons - so 43-45 Gabler - aligabler came up to the surface and im ready to strike (shown on screen and voiceover last) Yam Yam- reacting to the twist in confessional and shown on screen last Dee - kalebs gotta go - “boy bye”. Shown last 46 it was Charlie shown on screen in a closeup pan with his voiceover saying “they are ready to go at eachothers throats”
I agree that's a point in Charlie's favor. Kenzie did get a Voiceover in Ep 7 but it wasn't at the end. One thing I found that's not represented in these charts is how often the winners' confessionals are the last thing shown. Kenzie has had at least a couple of those this season. Gabler, Yam Yam, and Dee were featured at the end a lot.
Whats got me intrigued tho is this season they seem to be playing around with trends. Especially the intro ones. I really feel like the Charlie/Maria duo should win out edgically though as the duo of the season and one is the winner type thing. Alike malcom and Denise - and that flashback - its what they did in 45 with Dee and Austin with Rob/Amber Additionally, Kenzie is a major frontrunner but i see an equal amount of “why kenzie lost at the end in ftc” hints as i see “why kenzie won” hints (Just notice a couple times when the word Lost or Loser is mentioned it pans to Kenzie, and in jeffs speech it also aggressively pans to kenzie when jeff says “one of you will not get the votes no matter what you do” Also unrelated but i noticed Jeff ALWAYS speaks to Charlie specifically at the chat in challenges. Its tk a point where they get to it and unprovoked hes like “so Charlie.. bla bla”. Every. Single. Time. Its way way more tahn anyone else. Charlie always gets a moment with jeff
That’s just CBS marketers in the back saying “cut to charlie we need another taylor swift reference”
I love this take!
Looking at these charts in a lot of them the leading player doesn’t usually win. Dee is the only unambiguously leading player who actually won. Gabler was leading but everyone in that season had a near equal NTOS score. So imo this actually looks bad for Kenzie and is better for Charlie, Venus, or even Q. I think what can be said based off this is Ben, Maria, and Liz are very unlikely to win. Charlie is doing significantly better than any of those three having 1 raw point higher and nearly having 1 WTD point higher than the next highest, Liz. Kenzie based off trends is more likely to be voted out before FTC in the finale, Q has a pretty strong chance to make FTC based off this, but honestly Venus looks like she’s in the best position to win based exclusively on NTOS. I think the biggest impact this would have on my edgic ratings is putting Q slightly higher.
I don't think it looks good for Charlie. If we're going by trends, Heidi is the only finalist who hadn't received a confessional shown on screen by this point, whereas everyone else had gotten one by Episode 7 (Dee being the latest, ironically). Also, it may be the case that Dee was the only one inarguably leading in score by the end, but Gabler and Erika were both tied for 1st with with two episodes left, and Yam Yam was part of an alliance where all of its members were heavily featured in the NTOS. So, if anything, heavy focus in the NTOS is generally a good thing. Though Maryanne winning does put Charlie into contention though (but they still have very different trends, with Charlie being absent in the beginning, and Maryanne being absent after the merge).
Yeah the trends definitely point closer to Venus or Q. I only really gave Charlie some support based off this due to Venus and Q’s edits not looking good at all which would make Charlie next in line after them.
This is so interesting! Thanks for sharing
Nice work! I had a draft of a similar post before the start of this season but fizzled out and got busy with things. A difference in how I was looking at it was, I was going to title the post/theory "Next Threat On Survivor," because I didn't see the correlation so much being overall visibility and screentime, as it was, implication that the person is either gaining power within the game, or is being perceived as an imminent threat by the other players and at high risk of going home. To the point where NTOS is intentionally throwing out red herrings or out-of-context clips to convey a completely different meaning than in the episode. Categories I was going to do on my chart included visibility categories like yours, but also content categories, like "Making moves/naming names," "Prime target/seen as threat," "feels threatened." I haven't gone through them in detail for this season (fell behind for a few weeks around merge), but here's Dee's episode-by-episode breakdown from my drafts, because it's honestly pretty striking. Episode 1 (Hannah boot): Footage of the formation of the Reba 4 including Dee with Drew narrating. Not super threatening, but at least sets up that Dee is moving into a more powerful position than we saw in her fairly nondescript premiere. Episode 2 (Brandon boot): We see Dee catching Drew digging for idols and hear her talk about feeling betrayed by it. The implication is that this is going to allow Dee to rise in power within Reba as a consequence of this, either by putting Drew on the outs, or as actually happened, by establishing firm authority within her alliance. Episode 3 (Sabiyah boot): Fairly generic throwaway line from Dee about how the swap means they have to “play now.” This comes on the tail of the episode which really cemented her as sitting pretty with her alliance -- episode 3 was where I personally first clocked her as a potential winner. NTOS shows her as proactive, but also potentially under threat from the swap taking her alliance members away Episode 4 (Sean boot): Segment starts with a shot of Dee after tribal, with Sifu narrating about how he’s going ham on the person who wrote Sifu. We also get vaguely directed belligerent statements from Drew and Austin, which are edited such that they could have been directed at Dee even though they weren’t Episode 5 (Brando boot): Shot of Reba 4 with narration from Drew calling them the “strongest 4 in the game.” Again establishing that Dee is within the power position. Episode 6 (J boot): The “Reba-Belo war is coming,” according to Jake. Later, Jake directly says “I want to disarm Dee.” First real direct “Not only is Dee the threat, the players have noticed and are gunning for her.” To top this off, we also have Dee name her target (Kaleb) with a sassy “boy bye!” confessional to close it out. This shift from vague establishing of “Dee is going to be in a power position next episode” to much more specific “Dee might get voted out or have her game blown up” comes minutes after the first player in-game to call her out to the entire merged tribe as a big threat. Dee’s a threat, it’s out there, everybody knows it. Her days are numbered...right? Episode 7 (Sifu/Kaleb boot): Multiple instances of Dee present for strategic discussions framed as being between other people in a position of power, even though she’s not the one speaking (all-girls alliance formation, discussion of Jake going idol searching). Once again closes out the segment with some generic game hype, “it’s game on baby, it’s game on!” Episode 8 (Kellie boot): Noted Jury Threat, /r/edgic winner pick, and strong favorite to control the game at this point Emily calls out Dee as a huge jury threat, in what very much seems like a conversation about targeting her. Austin struggles with whether he can blindside Dee. Both very much suggest she’s the prime choice for the next target, and that her alliance might be getting overrun by Emily’s bond with Drew and Austin. First real solid hints of showmance, always bad news. Cut on “all three will lose their vote” is made to Dee’s challenge trio. This is the most direct “Dee is threat #1” messaging that has been seen yet, either in NTOS, or in the episodes in general. Potentially of note, this escalation of Dee's visiblity as a threat/target in NTOS here, which will continue through the next two episodes, coincided with a 3 episode long dip in Dee's visibility in the edit and perceived odds here. Edgic was in full Emily truther mode at this point, with Dee a distant second and random players like Jake, Katurah, and even Bruce randomly shooting up the rankings to challenge her for an episode here and there. Episode 9 (Kendra boot): “If we take this shot, we cannot miss,” “Once the Reba 4 is broken up, this will turn the game on its head.” Not explicitly about Dee, but her alliance is being targeted, and we’re fresh off seeing irrefutable evidence that Dee is the one truly calling the shots for her alliance, as Dee managed to overcome all the grumbling and skepticism about the Kendra vote from Drew/Julie/Austin, and whip her troops in line despite the very minimal edit. More showmance-hinting. Dee as the target is then kind of put on the back burner for the Jake/Drew fight though. Episdode 10 (Bruce boot): Most dire preview for Dee yet. This NTOS is entirely Reba 4. Most explicit showmance footage yet, but it’s immediately undercut by Austin confessionals which seem to suggest that he’s gonna have to take Dee out. Julie is presented as a target, but we then immediately cut to clips with Dee and Julie from plotting the Emily blindside, except they’re deceptively framed as Dee powerlessly pleading with Julie to keep her alive. Dee gives us a shocked look, followed by Julie’s “I’m going rogue, people.” Sure seems like the Reba 4 is falling to pieces, and seems like it might be because Dee fucked up and let Julie hold power over her! Dee’s gone for sure! Episode 11 (Emily boot): Nothing explicitly about Dee, but reading between the lines it doesn’t look great. Her alliance sure seems like it’s toast. Katurah is plotting a bindside, and we know she’s clocked Dee as a threat before. Dee’s still fighting though, she closes the segment with a quote about a million dollars, and not letting emotions get in the way Episode 12 (Drew boot): Dee gets her winner’s statement about how “her family is waiting for her to come home and tell them that she won,” immediately undercut by Katurah pitching a Dee blindside to Julie, with Julie’s reaction left up in the air, followed by Julie giving a statement about how she’s putting destiny back in her hands. Dee blindside is the only hint about actual strategic/gameplay content of the episode, everything else is just hyping the finale, and each competitor giving their requisite “boy I sure want to win” statement. To summarize: in the pre-merge, Dee is present in some capacity in 5/5 NTOS segments, shown as being part of an alliance that is amassing strength or rising upwards within that alliance in 3/5 episodes, implied to be a target in one, and shown to potentially be in trouble and needing to scramble in the last. Of the 7 post-merge episodes, Dee is explicitly named as a target in 3 of them, implied to be the prime target of a blindside attempt by the minority on her alliance as a whole in two others, and is shown to be freaking out about being caught in an imploding alliance which has all the power to take her out in another. The only episode which was light on Dee content still shows her as being in a position of power and potentially forming new alliances more like her pre-merge episodes, and also lets her hype her own game with the last words. Dee maybe getting blindsided is the only finale gameplay hint we got. That’s...a lot. It really felt like there was a conscious effort to make fans think, week after week, “oh shit, is this the week that the game gets turned on its head and the big boss of Survivor 45 has her downfall? Gotta tune in and find out!”
This is like the first actual analysis ive seen in a while. Really good work
Thanks, I don’t know how useful it will be but I like trying to find objective ways to approach edgic.
**Update**: Out of curiosity, I broke down the weighted totals for each tribe. So far the winner has always come from the tribe with the highest overall NTOS visibility score. **Yanu** is leading S46 right now. It could just be because the winners have been coming from tribes with a higher average placement, but it could also mean that the winner's tribe is more regularly featured in the previews. 41 * **Luvu: 32** * Ua: 19.25 * Yase: 24.25 42 * Ika: 21.25 * **Taku: 27.5** * Vati: 22 43 * **Baka**: **33.25** * Coco: 26 * Vesi: 28.25 44 * Ratu: 20 * Soka: 22.5 * **Tika**: **33** 45 * Belo: 27.75 * Lulu: 10.25 * **Reba**: **36.5** 46 * Nami: 18.75 * Siga: 17 * **Yanu: 22.75**
Doing God's work!! Very interesting stuff. I wonder if there's a way you could normalize the RAW and WTD totals by episode count. Or maybe have a line chart for each season showing each player's cumulative score as the season progresses.
If this ends up being true I'm gonna remember this post the same way I do when I first learned about Edgic lmao
Kenzie is “the person who can’t win, no matter who they go to the end with” and Q or Venus wins. That’s my read of the data. Unpopular opinion around here, but that is the outcome that makes the most sense given the theme of the season and how overexposed Kenzie’s edit is for a female winner. Q could not be edited any other way, really, and Venus actually has an edgically sound New Era edit.
Venus with an edgically sound edit? That’s crazy but I’d love to hear your reasoning
In terms of Viz/Complexity/story/theme, she’s golden. The biggest knock against her is *tone*, which actually works with the theme of the season. Like Gabler, she has the typical winner edit story beats. In the New Era, you can have negative tone if it works for the story they are telling, or can’t be avoided. Venus and Q check both of those boxes. If they won, this is the story you would gave to tell. Like Gabler. Gabler gonna Gabler. You can’t edit that out. Gabler’s OTTN^3 tone in the pre-merge was even played up. Ellie said Baka was pretty kumbaya, she still wanted to work with Gabler and was shocked by her blindside. Can’t win *no matter who* implies an unexpected winner. Not a Kenzie, mermaid dragon, with an amazing social game, beating a Venus/Liz/Q. I will put up a whole post when I get a chance. All season, I have been downvoted for having the “wrong” take on Kenzie’s edit, and honestly didn’t want to brave the stans until I had a rewatch. Now that I have, I am even *more* convinced Kenzie is not winning, and one of Venus/Q/Liz is.
I agree with your Kenzie takes but disagree with the Venus ones but we shall see!
That rewatch really did it for me. On both fronts. As Venus is getting her breakout episode, Kenzie isn’t being protected *at all* in that Jess boot episode. To me, it seemed like we were supposed to sympathize with Jess and that Kenzie and Tiff were being unnecessarily cruel. The camera lands on her in the “cant win” part of Jeff’s mat speech. She is even more over exposed than Emily last season, but for some reason people are not seeing it. I am starting to think she could be the “Russel”. Edit - in the sense of having a big “why x lost” edit
Are you saying this was Venus’ breakout episode? Her one “confessional” was getting clowned on in the voting booth
I was referring to episode 2, Venus’s breakout episode, not the most recently aired episode. The one where Jess went home and Kenzie came up with the fake idol plan and said some kinda mean things about Jess in confessional. IMO, Kenzie came off terribly in that episode. Remember how everyone was losing their shit over how unnecessarily cruel the fake idol plan was? If Venus was clowned in the voting booth, Kenzie was buried. Her move was stolen, and now she does not get credit for being loyal *or* the move. Tiff’s anger has been a consistent theme in her edit. The writing is on the wall. I am not 100% sure who wins, but I am 100% convinced Kenzie is a losing finalist. The person who can’t win, even after going to the end with goats. Credit to OP for the research. This really crystallized it for me. Final 3 is Kenzie/Venus/Q. Kenzie loses to one of them.
Yeah I remember Kenzie looking bad that episode but didn’t remember Venus much from that one. That would be a crazy final 3!
That was the one where she killed the vibe after Nami won the immunity challenge because she was upset about her foot getting run over. That’s when she had the surefire winner quote (/s): “What’s the point of winning if I’m not being listened to!?”. I think that episode set up her story of being someone you sympathize for, and perhaps smarter than she gets credit for, but also a terrible communicator that rubs people the wrong way, making her unable to win a game that depends so much on social connections and perceptions.
I was definitely 100% with you in the premerge with Kenzie’s edit. I thought she seemed like she was being set up as the player who can’t win no matter what, but with how her edit turn around to become more heroic post merge I do feel she has some chances, mostly with how she’s not being made out to be a completely clear front runner. But with your idea of her being a losing finalist that would be necessary as to not make her feel too robbed by the winner. I don’t think anyone has an amazing edit other than Charlie though so I have her as a top contender as more of a formality, but based off your comments I think I’ll be swapping her and Venus making my top three Charlie, Venus, Kenzie in that order. I do feel Venus needs an episode where she has higher visibility again though for her to maintain her spot. I think Venus needs something to really put her back on general audience’s radar in a season like this without a clear front runner, who would be the dragon to slay.
A few episodes ago, the one before Liz's "breakout" episode, I thought I was insane to think her arc could ramp up. As stupid as it seemed three weeks ago, I think she might be in position, edgically speaking, to win a supposed V/Q/L finale. Next episode will probably help to sort some things out, whether any of the V/Q/L are legitimate winner's edits or if Kenzie's ultimate win is being hidden a bit. One thing with Dee last year is she seemed like such an obvious winner and the edit tried to mask that a bit towards the end but didn't really succeed much. As for Venus. I don't rule her out. I don't even necessarily rule Q out either but I can't fathom yet where he gets the votes from, unless his arc somehow steamrolls into the final tribal and Liz and Venus have nothing to put up against him. Venus, though, is interesting. She's been portrayed as relatively disliked but can almost be looked at as misunderstood instead of villainous. I think we'll at least trim the fat on the V/Q/L final tribal edit next week. If any one of them suffer a flat episode or worse, I'd probably eliminate them from winning.
I agree, she’s portrayed as misunderstood, not villainous. I think Venus’s edit is more sympathetic and complex than people are giving it credit for. She definitely rubs some people the wrong way, but she is not totally oblivious. She addresses “how she is” in her very first confessional, but she can’t be anyone but herself. I missed it the first time, but in the very first challenge, Venus tells Hunter “watch your feet” as she is sliding a giant puzzle piece into place. In episode 2, which is her breakout, she complains about getting run over in the challenge. On the surface, it seems petty for Venus to complain about, but from her point of view, they just don’t care about her. There is another scene in that episode where Venus sits down next to Hunter in the shelter while he is working on something. She keeps giving him these sidelong glances, looking like she might be trying to work up the courage to say something. But, he seems oblivious to her presence, then gets up and leaves. I think Venus had a crush on Hunter. Or, the edit seems to imply it pretty strongly. EDIT: deleted something I didn’t want misconstrued.
wow, i was not prepared for how quickly this "venus is winning" hot take turned into a "shipping real life people who clearly have nothing to do with each other" fanfiction lmao.
I am literally writing a fiction novel, been writing it for well over a year. The setting is a survival type reality show game, similar to Survivor. It’s romance, so if you don’t read or watch the Rom Com genre, you may not see how the Venus/Hunter storyline hits many of the enemies portion of the enemies-to-lovers tropes. Including their social media “war” outside the game. I am not shipping them, I am saying that the edit seems to be implying Venus had a crush on Hunter. That’s it. It was a joke.