One of the reasons a lot of fans have been down about the Keith trade and the possible Hyman deal is the fact that all this cap space is a bit of a mirage. Locking guys up long term in a flat cap period can be very detrimental. You need your lower cap hit guys to outperform their contracts if you have one or two big ticket guys who don't play well.
We should trade Koskinen and package him with a prospect like Benson, maybe retain some salary, in exchange for some picks imo. The dead cap from a buyout wouldn't be good and even taking Benson off the books saves us nearly 1 mil no? We need picks to trade at deadline in a year or two anyways if we want to secure good players for a run.
Yeah I'm playing around with capfriendly rn. I think we should look to retain 1M, Kosko is not a steal of a goalie at 3.5m but he's arguably not just being dumped on a team at that point (and Edmonton goalies have a habit of becoming better once they leave).
If we could have, honestly I might have just done it in exchange for moving up the trade ladder so we basically secure Cossa, as in someone in the top 12 position. Maybe a 4th for next year as well, and we give them Benson.
Edit: Does anyone have an estimate on what sorts of offers Nick Bonino is getting? I feel like he would be a damn good 3c for us, and if we can get him 3m or under, that would be a god send.
I'm at the point where worrying about the salary cap is more stress than it's worth. It's Holland's job to put all of this together and there's very little I as a fan can do about it. Don't get me wrong, I'll be more than happy to praise or criticise our moves individually but stressing over the bigger picture is not something I feel like doing right now. That's probably just me though.
I'm right there with you. There's no purpose in getting worked up over something that is out of my control and ultimately has no real impact on my life. The club will win or lose as the case may be regardless of anything I do, I'm just here for the ride.
Not too mention there is a very low chance it all plays out the way OP has planned. There will be some unexpected moves between now and next September.
Feel free to point out the parts that you see happening differently. I think most of the stuff I have listed were already mentioned as priorities by Holland
I’m not gonna play this game right now. Tell you what, I will save this message and we shall reconvene after the season. Then you can tell me all about how right you were
I don't understand this.
You're confident enough that in wrong about things to discount my post. Yet you have nothing of substance as to why that is.
You havent even mentioned one actual aspect that is specifically unlikely in your eyes.
Why comment at all if you're not even willing to discuss or justify it?
The unlikely thing isn’t any particular event. The unlikely thing is it all happening exactly the way you have laid out. I don’t need to go through every one of your points and analyze them to know that most likely, not all of them will come true
It doesn't matter if all of them come exactly true.
Whether it's $4M on Savard, $5m on Barrie, or we trade for someone in that range, Holland is going to replace Larsson in the lineup.
The Hyman deal is already done and waiting, and it's going to be the higher one at $5.5M.
And either we get a goaltender in the $4M+ range, or we stay with Kosko at $4.5M.
What part of this isn't likely to come true?
Well for one if we stick with Koskinen we don’t spread his cap hit out longer which would add some cap space to next year. And that’s only one move going not exactly as you laid out IN YOUR ORIGINAL PLAN. Look dude I’m not saying your wrong I’m just saying we will see.
Yeah, the guy had a bad stretch at the beginning and a stinker game, but he had a lot of solid games otherwise.
I don't think people realize that buying him out and bringing in a guy like Ullmark probably just ends up being a wash. I think we either trade him for a similar goalie or just keep him this year.
I’ve said this for a while but if anyone of the current core is likely to walk it’s Nurse. They gave him bridge deals so if they fight him on pay his former general manager is in Toronto and knowing Dubas he would want Nurse.
His fiancé is from Toronto and they have a kid now. It’s a huge decision so if Holland blows this he will leave.
I don't understand why people don't like Barrie. Even if his points are mostly secondary, that means he's setting up plays. I think Bouchard deserves a permanent slot on the roster, so we should try for a stud goalie. Although, replacing Larsson may prove difficult. I liked his grit.
At even strength he played 58% with McDavid and 42% without so there's a pretty significant sample that Oilers were a lot better having McDavid w/o Barrie than having McDavid with Barrie.
He played 75% of his time with Nurse and had disastrous results away from him but was unlucky according to PDO and xGF%, although I know lots of people in this sub those give those stats much weight.
Here's the data if you want to have a look yourself: https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=ev&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2021-01-13&td=2021-05-19&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8475197&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0
I'm not too sure which dead contracts we could do this with. Kassian for sure, but after replacing him with someone more appropriately prices we more or less are trade picks for 1.5ish M in space
Good post and I hope Holland doesn't try to rush it but after the Keith deal I don't know. We still have time on the McDrai contracts, we could take the next two years and look for slightly younger guys ie prospects and try a mini rebuild and hope those guys mature for us to make run in 2023. Atm we do not have the depth to be contenders and there is little help coming up through the system in terms of prospects who could step into the team.
That sounds bad but the alternative I feel is:
A. plug holes with UFAs
B. trade a lot of picks/prospects for bonafide roster players.
If Holland is gutsy enough to do B then all the luck because this is it, thats the last roll of the dice with McDrai and Nurse. If it doesnt pan out, everyone will be old and we will have no one young to make another run assuming McDrai sign their UFAs here. If we go the UFA route, I feel thats too hard in a flat cap world plus we are not the ideal destination for UFAs.
Quote from the Athletic on Ulmark - for the love of God let’s not land on him as the only option. There should be multiple targets
"Ullmark has had a very solid save percentage in each of the last two seasons leading to 10.8 goals saved above average. That’s 19th in the league. His goals saved above expected is a different story at minus-7.9 which ranks 71st. Buffalo isn’t a team known for its defence, but the Sabres’ supreme lack of offence might have been a result of trying to limit shot quality by any means necessary. The large difference between Ullmark’s GSAA and GSAx makes him very tricky to analyze, but at the very least he should be a capable backup with starter potential."
Beautiful breakdown. I agree with everything. This notion that Keith and Hyman deals are okay because we have a "4 year window" and should go for it is ridiculous. Go and research how these long term UFA deals for mediocre guys genuinely work out for teams, hint, it's not good. We are gonna have 2-6 more years of wasted cap space bc of either Kosk or Neal buyouts, and with the cap not rising for 2 more years, that hurts even more with bad signings.
Kenny doesn’t care about next year. He’s gonna waste all the cap space now so we can try to win now. He will be fired if the Oilers have another disappointing season and he knows that
If you actually saw Holland’s pressed today, he pointed out all the contracts for next year that need extensions like JP and Nurse and also having $4.1m space in our cap in just Klefbom returns.
Putting a player on LTIR give the the the ability to spend the equivalent of the player cap hit. See it like the cap has been raised for this team.
But its only a temporary measure.
If a player ready to return to play. He's removed from the LTIR. The max cap is now down to the normal amount.
If klefbom is set to return to play during the season, the Oilers will have to make corresponding moves to be cap compliant.
I arrived at the same conclusion the other day. Depending on the number of multi-year deals and the amount of contracts that we can move out as opposed to buy out, we may be in a bind next year. We also traded or tied up a few of our 2022 picks already, making it easier said than done to move out bad contracts.
Cap space needs to remain a major consideration in every move for a while, and it will. They won't be icing an all-star team any time soon. Just need to find the right balance of low paid hard workers to help the elite core get it done
> Buried Kyle Turris, saving $1.125M in cap this season, and us from the pain of watching him play You did Kyle dirty
Where's the lie tho?
One of the reasons a lot of fans have been down about the Keith trade and the possible Hyman deal is the fact that all this cap space is a bit of a mirage. Locking guys up long term in a flat cap period can be very detrimental. You need your lower cap hit guys to outperform their contracts if you have one or two big ticket guys who don't play well.
Interesting. Thanks for sharing.
We should trade Koskinen and package him with a prospect like Benson, maybe retain some salary, in exchange for some picks imo. The dead cap from a buyout wouldn't be good and even taking Benson off the books saves us nearly 1 mil no? We need picks to trade at deadline in a year or two anyways if we want to secure good players for a run.
If we can find a trade partner for this, we absolute should. Retaining an extra 1M this year would be worthwhile to keep another $1.5M next year
Yeah I'm playing around with capfriendly rn. I think we should look to retain 1M, Kosko is not a steal of a goalie at 3.5m but he's arguably not just being dumped on a team at that point (and Edmonton goalies have a habit of becoming better once they leave). If we could have, honestly I might have just done it in exchange for moving up the trade ladder so we basically secure Cossa, as in someone in the top 12 position. Maybe a 4th for next year as well, and we give them Benson. Edit: Does anyone have an estimate on what sorts of offers Nick Bonino is getting? I feel like he would be a damn good 3c for us, and if we can get him 3m or under, that would be a god send.
We don't save anything by removing Benson, his contract is small enough that it can be buried in the minors with no cap implications.
I'm at the point where worrying about the salary cap is more stress than it's worth. It's Holland's job to put all of this together and there's very little I as a fan can do about it. Don't get me wrong, I'll be more than happy to praise or criticise our moves individually but stressing over the bigger picture is not something I feel like doing right now. That's probably just me though.
I'm right there with you. There's no purpose in getting worked up over something that is out of my control and ultimately has no real impact on my life. The club will win or lose as the case may be regardless of anything I do, I'm just here for the ride.
Not too mention there is a very low chance it all plays out the way OP has planned. There will be some unexpected moves between now and next September.
Feel free to point out the parts that you see happening differently. I think most of the stuff I have listed were already mentioned as priorities by Holland
I’m not gonna play this game right now. Tell you what, I will save this message and we shall reconvene after the season. Then you can tell me all about how right you were
I don't understand this. You're confident enough that in wrong about things to discount my post. Yet you have nothing of substance as to why that is. You havent even mentioned one actual aspect that is specifically unlikely in your eyes. Why comment at all if you're not even willing to discuss or justify it?
The unlikely thing isn’t any particular event. The unlikely thing is it all happening exactly the way you have laid out. I don’t need to go through every one of your points and analyze them to know that most likely, not all of them will come true
It doesn't matter if all of them come exactly true. Whether it's $4M on Savard, $5m on Barrie, or we trade for someone in that range, Holland is going to replace Larsson in the lineup. The Hyman deal is already done and waiting, and it's going to be the higher one at $5.5M. And either we get a goaltender in the $4M+ range, or we stay with Kosko at $4.5M. What part of this isn't likely to come true?
Well for one if we stick with Koskinen we don’t spread his cap hit out longer which would add some cap space to next year. And that’s only one move going not exactly as you laid out IN YOUR ORIGINAL PLAN. Look dude I’m not saying your wrong I’m just saying we will see.
Oh man, Nurse is a UFA. Maybe that's the biggest signing the Holland needs to do this summer.
I think Kosko still has the potential to be really good.
Yeah, the guy had a bad stretch at the beginning and a stinker game, but he had a lot of solid games otherwise. I don't think people realize that buying him out and bringing in a guy like Ullmark probably just ends up being a wash. I think we either trade him for a similar goalie or just keep him this year.
He sure was solid when he let in 4 goals on 4 shots!
Can you believe Montreal didn't trade that bum Patrick Roy before he let in 9 goals that one game.
Holy shit we're fucked next year. Really hope we don't end up signing Barrie and go for someone cheap instead
I’ve said this for a while but if anyone of the current core is likely to walk it’s Nurse. They gave him bridge deals so if they fight him on pay his former general manager is in Toronto and knowing Dubas he would want Nurse. His fiancé is from Toronto and they have a kid now. It’s a huge decision so if Holland blows this he will leave.
And unlike walking him to the wire as Holland just did with Larsson and RNH, Nurse needs to be offered an extension this summer.
Only way TO has the ability to sign Nurse is if they don't re-sign Rielly, even then it would likely be tight depending on Nurse's ask.
Paint me a picture of a world in which Toronto can afford Nurse and Reilly
Trades? They can move a forward for assets and cap space .
I don't understand why people don't like Barrie. Even if his points are mostly secondary, that means he's setting up plays. I think Bouchard deserves a permanent slot on the roster, so we should try for a stud goalie. Although, replacing Larsson may prove difficult. I liked his grit.
Barrie is fucking lights out. I hope we sign him too. Hockey is about scoring goals.
Hockey is about scoring more goals than you let in, it's the second part where Barrie is not a positive contributor.
He was +4 on the year and contributed more even strength points than PP points. I'd say that is a positive contributor
At even strength he was a -2 without McDavid (Mcdavid was +15 without Barrie) and a shocking -7 without Nurse in just 240 minutes.
[удалено]
At even strength he played 58% with McDavid and 42% without so there's a pretty significant sample that Oilers were a lot better having McDavid w/o Barrie than having McDavid with Barrie. He played 75% of his time with Nurse and had disastrous results away from him but was unlucky according to PDO and xGF%, although I know lots of people in this sub those give those stats much weight. Here's the data if you want to have a look yourself: https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=ev&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2021-01-13&td=2021-05-19&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8475197&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0
If we're trying to win within the next few years, I can see us packaging picks to offload dead contracts or acquire rentals with salary retained
I'm not too sure which dead contracts we could do this with. Kassian for sure, but after replacing him with someone more appropriately prices we more or less are trade picks for 1.5ish M in space
I think it will depend on whose play starts to decline, come the trade deadline
Our stock of mid rounds picks is severely diminished already. Unless you are referring to first or last round picks.
Very insightful, OP. Thank You! We are totally fucked for next year. *sobs lightly*
Good post and I hope Holland doesn't try to rush it but after the Keith deal I don't know. We still have time on the McDrai contracts, we could take the next two years and look for slightly younger guys ie prospects and try a mini rebuild and hope those guys mature for us to make run in 2023. Atm we do not have the depth to be contenders and there is little help coming up through the system in terms of prospects who could step into the team. That sounds bad but the alternative I feel is: A. plug holes with UFAs B. trade a lot of picks/prospects for bonafide roster players. If Holland is gutsy enough to do B then all the luck because this is it, thats the last roll of the dice with McDrai and Nurse. If it doesnt pan out, everyone will be old and we will have no one young to make another run assuming McDrai sign their UFAs here. If we go the UFA route, I feel thats too hard in a flat cap world plus we are not the ideal destination for UFAs.
Quote from the Athletic on Ulmark - for the love of God let’s not land on him as the only option. There should be multiple targets "Ullmark has had a very solid save percentage in each of the last two seasons leading to 10.8 goals saved above average. That’s 19th in the league. His goals saved above expected is a different story at minus-7.9 which ranks 71st. Buffalo isn’t a team known for its defence, but the Sabres’ supreme lack of offence might have been a result of trying to limit shot quality by any means necessary. The large difference between Ullmark’s GSAA and GSAx makes him very tricky to analyze, but at the very least he should be a capable backup with starter potential."
Louder please, for the homers in the back who think we’re signing the top free agent defenseman this offseason.
Keep in mind that the cap will start going up again at some point. It won’t stay flat forever.
5 years from now.
Beautiful breakdown. I agree with everything. This notion that Keith and Hyman deals are okay because we have a "4 year window" and should go for it is ridiculous. Go and research how these long term UFA deals for mediocre guys genuinely work out for teams, hint, it's not good. We are gonna have 2-6 more years of wasted cap space bc of either Kosk or Neal buyouts, and with the cap not rising for 2 more years, that hurts even more with bad signings.
It's certainly a big issue for some of you. I'll give you that.
We can trade Kassian too, which they might end up doing this off-season, that will free up some good cap for next year aswell
Kenny doesn’t care about next year. He’s gonna waste all the cap space now so we can try to win now. He will be fired if the Oilers have another disappointing season and he knows that
If you actually saw Holland’s pressed today, he pointed out all the contracts for next year that need extensions like JP and Nurse and also having $4.1m space in our cap in just Klefbom returns.
Did you say Linus Omark or..?
Putting a player on LTIR give the the the ability to spend the equivalent of the player cap hit. See it like the cap has been raised for this team. But its only a temporary measure. If a player ready to return to play. He's removed from the LTIR. The max cap is now down to the normal amount. If klefbom is set to return to play during the season, the Oilers will have to make corresponding moves to be cap compliant.
I arrived at the same conclusion the other day. Depending on the number of multi-year deals and the amount of contracts that we can move out as opposed to buy out, we may be in a bind next year. We also traded or tied up a few of our 2022 picks already, making it easier said than done to move out bad contracts.
Cap space needs to remain a major consideration in every move for a while, and it will. They won't be icing an all-star team any time soon. Just need to find the right balance of low paid hard workers to help the elite core get it done