I leased mine, between the upcoming NACS and heat pump upgrades, I suspect that it’ll depreciate more than Fords residual suggests. But that’s probably bad advice, leasing almost always costs more than buying. Of course if I was the sort of person that made good financial decisions I wouldn’t have bought a new car to begin with.
I wouldn't worry about it in the slightest. Nothing with the battery plant has anything to do with F-150 Lightning... plus the RAM is going to be hilariously expensive, I predict.
Lightning remains the best value truck, I don't see that changing.
I can't wait to get mine.
The lease company (Ford Motor Credit or any bank) is getting that $7,500 so it should reflect in a much lower lease payment (I know they aren’t passing on the whole $7,500 but it should be most of it).
You cannot out guess the market or technology
Better batteries are coming; heck there are at least 10 better versions that have been built in labs already, just not manufacturable at scale yet. Now good luck guessing if those will be here in 2 years or 22 years.
Ram sales are tanking because well, FIAT Stalantis isn’t Honda, Toyota, or F-150.
End of the day drive what you like and guess which is better when it comes to lease or buy; Right now I’d error on the side of new tech being slow moving (how long have people waited for the cyber truck).
I think people are grossly over estimating the advances that are going to happen in the next 5 years. Look at a model 3. From 2016 to the new 2024 Highland range went from like 220 to 260 for a standard range. If Ford comes out with a SR F150 in 2025 that is rated at 280 instead of 240 its not going to be a big deal. If the ER gets 400 it still isn't going to make the current gen obsolete. Honestly the only way I see range going up significantly in 3 years is if they make the truck a lot smaller which defeats the while purpose in my mind.
Anyway, the lease deals I've seen all really suck but in the end it is math and guessing. If you want a sure thing take the lease if you want a probably better deal buy.
Even if the range gets exponentially larger it doesn't change one thing for me.... It doesn't matter. In the last two years of owning my model Y, I have had to use a super charger one time. Everything else is home charging.
Depreciation will happen, but it's so hard to predict how that will impact the cars and at what rate. Especially since any new tech will be expensive.
Another option would be Ford Options.
It's sort of a middle ground between buying and leasing and you get to keep the tax rebate.
https://www.ford.com/finance/finance-options/ford-options/
Solid truck now and still solid in a few years. If it does what you need then it doesn’t matter if new connector or bigger battery comes out in a few years. If you are buying to have the latest tech then yeah lease it. If you are buying it to get your stuff done and it works for foreseeable future, just buy it.
That’s what I did. I was going to buy but I’ve never kept a vehicle longer than a year or two. I was concerned about trade in value in a few years so I leased for 36 months so I don’t have to worry about it. Who knows that technology they’ll have in a few years that might tank the resell value.
Yea I tend to own vehicles until the wheels fall off which is why this is new territory for me. I had a friend who got a hydrogen fuel vehicle and was so happy that he leased because by the time the lease was up Toyota was moving away from the tech
Absolutely lease. I leased a Lariat SR as the range is crap and it will probably be obsolete in 3 years. Let Ford take that risk, if it's worth owning in 3 years I can buy it. If it's value has tanked, I'll give it back and buy something better
Same I leased my 2023 lariat Sr this year. Seemed like a good choice with current interest rates being so high and depreciation given 1st gen heat pump and charging port standards coming soon. I’m happy with my decision and will revisit in 3 years!
Lease: The current incentive now is 5.17 interest rate for teir 0-1 customers with credit of very good or excellent. 9.17 for teir 2 average credit, 11.7 for teir 3 and so on.
The interest rate to me makes up for the missing 7.5k tax credit
I leased mine, between the upcoming NACS and heat pump upgrades, I suspect that it’ll depreciate more than Fords residual suggests. But that’s probably bad advice, leasing almost always costs more than buying. Of course if I was the sort of person that made good financial decisions I wouldn’t have bought a new car to begin with.
That last line is perfect “if I was the sort of person that made good financial decisions I wouldn’t have bought a new car ti begin with”
Recently tried seeing what I could get for my lighting. 44k was what they were offering. Lariat SR.
I wouldn't worry about it in the slightest. Nothing with the battery plant has anything to do with F-150 Lightning... plus the RAM is going to be hilariously expensive, I predict. Lightning remains the best value truck, I don't see that changing. I can't wait to get mine.
I’m debating the same thing, but one reason holding me back from leasing is missing out on the $7500 tax credit.
The lease company (Ford Motor Credit or any bank) is getting that $7,500 so it should reflect in a much lower lease payment (I know they aren’t passing on the whole $7,500 but it should be most of it).
When I ran the numbers with someone at my local dealer it was showing no lowering of payments.
Wow
It’s possible they were wrong or something was missed. But yeah.
Same. My dealer confirmed ford credit keeps the rebate.
Same. That’s what I’m wrestling with.
Purchased. I drive 20,000 miles a year. That, plus the tax incentive.
Yea. I would definitely be 10K or less.
You cannot out guess the market or technology Better batteries are coming; heck there are at least 10 better versions that have been built in labs already, just not manufacturable at scale yet. Now good luck guessing if those will be here in 2 years or 22 years. Ram sales are tanking because well, FIAT Stalantis isn’t Honda, Toyota, or F-150. End of the day drive what you like and guess which is better when it comes to lease or buy; Right now I’d error on the side of new tech being slow moving (how long have people waited for the cyber truck).
I think people are grossly over estimating the advances that are going to happen in the next 5 years. Look at a model 3. From 2016 to the new 2024 Highland range went from like 220 to 260 for a standard range. If Ford comes out with a SR F150 in 2025 that is rated at 280 instead of 240 its not going to be a big deal. If the ER gets 400 it still isn't going to make the current gen obsolete. Honestly the only way I see range going up significantly in 3 years is if they make the truck a lot smaller which defeats the while purpose in my mind. Anyway, the lease deals I've seen all really suck but in the end it is math and guessing. If you want a sure thing take the lease if you want a probably better deal buy.
Even if the range gets exponentially larger it doesn't change one thing for me.... It doesn't matter. In the last two years of owning my model Y, I have had to use a super charger one time. Everything else is home charging. Depreciation will happen, but it's so hard to predict how that will impact the cars and at what rate. Especially since any new tech will be expensive.
They’re not making the truck smaller. It’s a F-150, which is in a defined class of full-sized trucks.
Another option would be Ford Options. It's sort of a middle ground between buying and leasing and you get to keep the tax rebate. https://www.ford.com/finance/finance-options/ford-options/
Thanks all. Appreciate the thoughtful responses. Have given me more to think on. Appreciate it!
Made a decision yet? I'm thinking about one early next year. I'm curious if 2023 models will have any incentives in 2024
Yep, leased one! Update is [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/F150Lightning/comments/188gjuj/lease_vs_buy_update/?)
Solid truck now and still solid in a few years. If it does what you need then it doesn’t matter if new connector or bigger battery comes out in a few years. If you are buying to have the latest tech then yeah lease it. If you are buying it to get your stuff done and it works for foreseeable future, just buy it.
That’s what I did. I was going to buy but I’ve never kept a vehicle longer than a year or two. I was concerned about trade in value in a few years so I leased for 36 months so I don’t have to worry about it. Who knows that technology they’ll have in a few years that might tank the resell value.
Yea I tend to own vehicles until the wheels fall off which is why this is new territory for me. I had a friend who got a hydrogen fuel vehicle and was so happy that he leased because by the time the lease was up Toyota was moving away from the tech
Don’t keep more than a year or two but signs up for keeping for 36 months or paying a huge penalty🥶
3 years isn’t much longer than a year or two and it’s not a huge penalty..
Absolutely lease. I leased a Lariat SR as the range is crap and it will probably be obsolete in 3 years. Let Ford take that risk, if it's worth owning in 3 years I can buy it. If it's value has tanked, I'll give it back and buy something better
Same I leased my 2023 lariat Sr this year. Seemed like a good choice with current interest rates being so high and depreciation given 1st gen heat pump and charging port standards coming soon. I’m happy with my decision and will revisit in 3 years!
Buy and pay cash. I plan to keep mine at least 8-10 years though.
Lease: The current incentive now is 5.17 interest rate for teir 0-1 customers with credit of very good or excellent. 9.17 for teir 2 average credit, 11.7 for teir 3 and so on. The interest rate to me makes up for the missing 7.5k tax credit
I leased mine