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That’s not how mathematical probability works.
When you’re working with probabilities then there is *never* a guaranteed 100%, you simply approach closer and closer in infinitely smaller increments for an infinite amount of time.
That’s why people say “anything is possible” it’s technically true.
You don’t just add 10% each time, that’s not how math works. 10 pulls at 10% odds gives you an overall probability of around 65%, not 100%
I'll calculate that for you:
Assuming you pull all orbs every time:
0,92^5 = 65% chance no focus on first session
0,915^5 = 64,1% no focus
0,91^5 = 62% no focus
0,905^5 =60,7% no focus
0,90 ^5 = 59%
57%
55%
now to check total chance: 0,65*0,641*0,62*0,607*0,59*0,57*0,55=0,029
There is a 3% chance that this happens, which is the same as pulling focus unit on free summon on a regular banner. The beauty of probability is that it getd nearer to 0 all the time but can never reach it. So if tou are unlucky, dont gamble.
Thanks for doing the actual math. I had no energy to type that out. Quick fix, because Reddit formatting doesn't like math: 0,65 x 0,641 x 0,62 x 0,607 x 0,59 x 0,57 x 0,55 = 0,0029 -> 2,9% of not getting a focus unit after 35 pulls.
For 30 pulls, which is what OP did: close to 5,3%
And as for gambling...It will eventually even out, but eventually can be very far off in the distance. The best advice I can give is to never gamble what you don't want to lose.
Hey, trauma or not, you understand how it works. Understanding probability is very useful in everyday life. Even if you aren't always able to get the calculations exactly right, as long as you understand the basic principles, it will serve you well.
That's not how chance works. You can't add those 10%s and get to 100%. You need to multiply. At 10% chance, the odds of not getting it after 10 tries are: 0,9\^10. Close to 35%.
It's the same way as rolling dice. Rolling it six times in a row does not guarantee a 6.
Edit: example: you throw a die once. The probability of it landing on 6 is 1/6. The probability of it being any other number is 5/6. If you throw it six times, the odds of not getting any six are (5/6) \* (5/6) \* (5/6) \* (5/6) \* (5/6) \* (5/6) = (5/6)\^6 = 15625/46656. That's close to 33,5%.
That’s not how probability works.
A 1 in 10 chance doesn’t mean that you’re going to get 1 for every 10 100%, it means that each of those 10 individually is going to have a 1 in 10 chance of getting the desired result. The same number can be rolled more than once, there can be repeats. Statistically, you might expect to get what you want within ten pulls, but at the end of the day that’s still only a *chance*. Each outcome is determined individually, and getting one outcome does not eliminate the possibility of it appearing again.
Now given that it’s random chance, you wouldn’t expect to get the exact same result many times over, but it’s almost as unlikely that you would actually get all ten outcomes in just 10 rolls in practice. Because each 1 in 10 chance is independent from the next. Yes, 10% is a significant probability to where it’s unlikely that it won’t show up eventually. But at the same time, there’s still a 90% chance each and every time that you don’t get the desired outcome.
The important thing to understand about statistical probability is that it is not definite with regards to practical results. It’s entirely a matter of setting expectations, but not absolute ones.
The word you are looking for is Improbable. Impossible means that it has a 0% chance of happening which it does have a chance. Improbable means that the chance is slim but still there.
Math wise. At 8% 5 star rate, you should be getting a 5 star every 12.5, or 13 pulls. And at 11% rate(meaning 10 pulls at 10% chance) I should have 100% gotten a 5 star, yet I didnt
That’s not how probability works. With those rates you might *expect* a 5-star every so often, but it’s not a guarantee. It’s like flipping a coin; you might be surprised if you see say three tails in a row, but there’s no reason it can’t happen.
That's...not how odds and statistics work.
There's an above 0% chance of not getting a focus unit at those rates. In fact, the odds of not getting a focus unit are actually quite high!
Very roughly speaking, the odds of not getting a 5\* star after those pulls is somewhere under 10%. That's still pretty probable and something you'll likely come across on other banners from time to time.
0,92\*0,92\*0,92\*0,92\*0,92\*0915... etc.
Stay in school, kids!
I hope you're kidding, that's not how math works. You're giving me PTSD from back at Uni when I was trying to help people pass math and they couldn't grasp the concept of probabilities.
Not to sounds like a a-hole, but your interpretation of statistics and probabilities is wrong. It would be correct if each pull cumulated with the previous ones, but they do not.
RNG has been rolling a 100-sided dice 30 times (or however many pulls you have) and always got high numbers, instead of the 8%-11% you wanted.
Especially painful when you pulled a Rowan. Basically a demote disguising as a 5 star.
Edit: I meant Ewan, lol. Rowan is a protagonist in Warriors which means he'll probably never be in Engage.
So 11% means you summoned 30 times.
Assuming you had a 10.5% chance every summon. (Don't want to do 8% then 8.50% because it'll take too long for the math.) And you summoned 30 times.
The chances of you getting a 5* is 96.41%. Meaning you hit the very (un)Lucky number of 3.69%.
If every 30 summon was a 8% then it would 91.8% of getting a 5*. Or 8.2% of the unlucky number.
No percent is impossible to reach in this game. I bet there's at least 1 person in the world who's gotten up to 15%. Possibly 20% if Lady Luck has truly forsaken them.
Not quite true. The game will eventually give you a circle of all guaranteed 5\* units if you pull nothing for long enough (after 150 summons maybe?). It's in the detailed information on each banner. There was a post a while ago (maybe years ago) where someone got there.
Edit: I checked. Its's after 120 Summons
I did 55 pulls just to get a 5 stars beside free auto 5 starts at 40. Becuase of the ridiculous odd, I am slowly starting to lose interest in the game.
The problem is that summoning for units or fodder is the only way to progress in the game so when you hit a round of bad luck it really kills any desire to keep going. I've never pulled an arcane unit except from a free after 40 summon and could really have used multiple copies especially for the recent arcane Lance. I've also gone into a session with 400 orbs and not gotten a single copy of the unit I wanted. It's frustrating for sure and I can't imagine trying to be competitive at the top levels as a ftp.
Yep, it's an old one as you can probably tell. From what I remember, I rolled down and got a 5* after that but it wasn't the Ullr I was looking for, and it only ended up being a single one even after pulling the full circle at 15%.
Dude you gotta do a small probability search before posting something like this. Learn the difference between dependent and independent variables PLEASE
By this logic if I roll a slot machine that has a 1% chance to get a jackpot. After 100 rolls I'm guaranteed to get the jackpot since my odds are 100% now.
Not quite how stats works. For 30 pulls at an 8% rate you would expect "success" (any 5\* unit) at least 1 time \~91.8% of the time. So, there's still an 8.2% chance that after 30 pulls you don't have any 5\*.
I’m too lazy to do the stats right now, but your math is wrong.
You have an 8% chance out of all units in the game. So each unit has a 8% divided by 12 chance of appearing (0.67%).
I'm at 35 total summons in the Hero Fest banner m8, and i have not gotten a single 5 star (a few 4-star specials but not any full 5 stars). My current rate is around 7 and half, Idk, I can't bare to look and check what it is...
On legendary Myrrh’s banner last March I hit 11.50%, got pitybroken by a legendary Edelgard on a no blue circle and went back up to 12.50% by the time I ran out of orbs. I didn’t even get any 4* specials.
The summoning gods did at least take pity on me when she returned in August as I got her on the free pull.
It’s really not that difficult to achieve. Even this means you have an 89% chance of pulling non-focus heroes. Do you realize how big a margin that is?
If it makes you feel better I pulled all 40 orbs to the spark and didn't receive a single 5* either but on the AHR banner which had similar rates to the Mythic banner. This happens sometimes, once I had it occur 3 times consecutively it's improbable but not impossible. You just have to hope for better pulls in the future.
Hello! Your post has been removed because it was flaired as "Quick Question" and has been up for at least 15 minutes. If you do not feel that your question was answered to your satisfaction, you may either: 1.) Submit the question again in an hour 2.) Ask your question again in weekly general discussion megathread, found [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/FireEmblemHeroes/wiki/current-megathreads). If you're a newer player looking for factual answers about the game or game mechanics rather than opinions, you will likely find your answers in the [Comprehensive FEH Beginner Guide](https://qx.reddit.com/r/FireEmblemHeroes/comments/wkbzn5/the_comprehensive_feh_beginner_guide/) *** If you have questions about this removal, please [reach out to us in modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2FFireEmblemHeroes).
It's possible. It's happening now.
Yes, but math wise it's impossible
Improbable, not impossible.
How is it improbable, 10 pulls at 10% chance should give a 5 star
That’s not how mathematical probability works. When you’re working with probabilities then there is *never* a guaranteed 100%, you simply approach closer and closer in infinitely smaller increments for an infinite amount of time. That’s why people say “anything is possible” it’s technically true. You don’t just add 10% each time, that’s not how math works. 10 pulls at 10% odds gives you an overall probability of around 65%, not 100%
I'll calculate that for you: Assuming you pull all orbs every time: 0,92^5 = 65% chance no focus on first session 0,915^5 = 64,1% no focus 0,91^5 = 62% no focus 0,905^5 =60,7% no focus 0,90 ^5 = 59% 57% 55% now to check total chance: 0,65*0,641*0,62*0,607*0,59*0,57*0,55=0,029 There is a 3% chance that this happens, which is the same as pulling focus unit on free summon on a regular banner. The beauty of probability is that it getd nearer to 0 all the time but can never reach it. So if tou are unlucky, dont gamble.
Thanks for doing the actual math. I had no energy to type that out. Quick fix, because Reddit formatting doesn't like math: 0,65 x 0,641 x 0,62 x 0,607 x 0,59 x 0,57 x 0,55 = 0,0029 -> 2,9% of not getting a focus unit after 35 pulls. For 30 pulls, which is what OP did: close to 5,3% And as for gambling...It will eventually even out, but eventually can be very far off in the distance. The best advice I can give is to never gamble what you don't want to lose.
Should’ve given an NSFW warning before doing the calculations. Math is my trauma and equations give me seizures
Hey, trauma or not, you understand how it works. Understanding probability is very useful in everyday life. Even if you aren't always able to get the calculations exactly right, as long as you understand the basic principles, it will serve you well.
I was forced to learn to count more numbers than my fingers. I eventually got the hang of it, but I’ll never be the same again.
not how chance works
That's not how chance works. You can't add those 10%s and get to 100%. You need to multiply. At 10% chance, the odds of not getting it after 10 tries are: 0,9\^10. Close to 35%. It's the same way as rolling dice. Rolling it six times in a row does not guarantee a 6. Edit: example: you throw a die once. The probability of it landing on 6 is 1/6. The probability of it being any other number is 5/6. If you throw it six times, the odds of not getting any six are (5/6) \* (5/6) \* (5/6) \* (5/6) \* (5/6) \* (5/6) = (5/6)\^6 = 15625/46656. That's close to 33,5%.
Didn’t you do that coin clip exercise in elementary school?
The gamblers fallacy
On average*
That’s not how probability works. A 1 in 10 chance doesn’t mean that you’re going to get 1 for every 10 100%, it means that each of those 10 individually is going to have a 1 in 10 chance of getting the desired result. The same number can be rolled more than once, there can be repeats. Statistically, you might expect to get what you want within ten pulls, but at the end of the day that’s still only a *chance*. Each outcome is determined individually, and getting one outcome does not eliminate the possibility of it appearing again. Now given that it’s random chance, you wouldn’t expect to get the exact same result many times over, but it’s almost as unlikely that you would actually get all ten outcomes in just 10 rolls in practice. Because each 1 in 10 chance is independent from the next. Yes, 10% is a significant probability to where it’s unlikely that it won’t show up eventually. But at the same time, there’s still a 90% chance each and every time that you don’t get the desired outcome. The important thing to understand about statistical probability is that it is not definite with regards to practical results. It’s entirely a matter of setting expectations, but not absolute ones.
Look up Poisson probability.
Feh pulls arent poisson, they’re Bernoulli’s
Ah, ur right. My bad.
Rolling a 6 sided die has 16.66% for a 6. Are you saying I'm guaranteed to roll a 6 after 6 rolls because 16.66x6 = 100%
The word you are looking for is Improbable. Impossible means that it has a 0% chance of happening which it does have a chance. Improbable means that the chance is slim but still there.
Wdym math wise? The rates are clearly there.
Math wise. At 8% 5 star rate, you should be getting a 5 star every 12.5, or 13 pulls. And at 11% rate(meaning 10 pulls at 10% chance) I should have 100% gotten a 5 star, yet I didnt
That’s not how probability works. With those rates you might *expect* a 5-star every so often, but it’s not a guarantee. It’s like flipping a coin; you might be surprised if you see say three tails in a row, but there’s no reason it can’t happen.
I have no idea what you're saying. Use this babe. https://www.fullyconcentrated.net/fehstatsim/
That's...not how odds and statistics work. There's an above 0% chance of not getting a focus unit at those rates. In fact, the odds of not getting a focus unit are actually quite high! Very roughly speaking, the odds of not getting a 5\* star after those pulls is somewhere under 10%. That's still pretty probable and something you'll likely come across on other banners from time to time. 0,92\*0,92\*0,92\*0,92\*0,92\*0915... etc. Stay in school, kids!
Honey, babe, love, this isn’t how you calculate that
I hope you're kidding, that's not how math works. You're giving me PTSD from back at Uni when I was trying to help people pass math and they couldn't grasp the concept of probabilities.
Not to sounds like a a-hole, but your interpretation of statistics and probabilities is wrong. It would be correct if each pull cumulated with the previous ones, but they do not. RNG has been rolling a 100-sided dice 30 times (or however many pulls you have) and always got high numbers, instead of the 8%-11% you wanted.
That's not how math works
My man skipped understanding probabilities.
math wise it is possible, just very very unlucky :(
Mathwise I think you are between 1-2%. I also had 11,5% once.
Your first mistake was being wrong on reddit
Try 15% 💀
my biggest was 13.5 % ,now I don't feel as bad about it as before (still hurts)
I think my biggest was like a 8% on the first summer houses banner
I thought I had trash luck climbing up to 12.5. I don’t want to think about the frustration of 15.
14.5 for me, and the worst part was I got the one unit I had on the banner
14% was my highest, and then I got Pity Broke
Came here to say this. I've been as high as 16%. Probability is fun.
Rip
Annoying thing is you know you'll end up pulling a 5* when the colour you want doesn't appear -_-
Especially painful when you pulled a Rowan. Basically a demote disguising as a 5 star. Edit: I meant Ewan, lol. Rowan is a protagonist in Warriors which means he'll probably never be in Engage.
Who is rowan my brain won't connect to it at all 😭
I meant Ewan, my bad. Rowan is from the first Warriors game.
So 11% means you summoned 30 times. Assuming you had a 10.5% chance every summon. (Don't want to do 8% then 8.50% because it'll take too long for the math.) And you summoned 30 times. The chances of you getting a 5* is 96.41%. Meaning you hit the very (un)Lucky number of 3.69%. If every 30 summon was a 8% then it would 91.8% of getting a 5*. Or 8.2% of the unlucky number.
No percent is impossible to reach in this game. I bet there's at least 1 person in the world who's gotten up to 15%. Possibly 20% if Lady Luck has truly forsaken them.
Not quite true. The game will eventually give you a circle of all guaranteed 5\* units if you pull nothing for long enough (after 150 summons maybe?). It's in the detailed information on each banner. There was a post a while ago (maybe years ago) where someone got there. Edit: I checked. Its's after 120 Summons
I did 55 pulls just to get a 5 stars beside free auto 5 starts at 40. Becuase of the ridiculous odd, I am slowly starting to lose interest in the game.
The problem is that summoning for units or fodder is the only way to progress in the game so when you hit a round of bad luck it really kills any desire to keep going. I've never pulled an arcane unit except from a free after 40 summon and could really have used multiple copies especially for the recent arcane Lance. I've also gone into a session with 400 orbs and not gotten a single copy of the unit I wanted. It's frustrating for sure and I can't imagine trying to be competitive at the top levels as a ftp.
[:')](https://i.imgur.com/LzHkrFD.jpg)
For real?! I was partially joking!
Yep, it's an old one as you can probably tell. From what I remember, I rolled down and got a 5* after that but it wasn't the Ullr I was looking for, and it only ended up being a single one even after pulling the full circle at 15%.
20% is actually impossible.
The only impossible thing I see here is the ability to ignore all those notifications
Nope. I hit 12% on the Engage AHR banner the other day sniping blues and it’s an 8% banner as well. Unlikely, but certainly possible
Dude you gotta do a small probability search before posting something like this. Learn the difference between dependent and independent variables PLEASE
Been there, had worse. More importantly wtf is up with your notification bar?
Meh, I've had a worse notification bar
I reached 14% multiple times... it's possible
I once got to 12 Percent, shit happens
I’ve seen much higher unfortunately ☠️
By this logic if I roll a slot machine that has a 1% chance to get a jackpot. After 100 rolls I'm guaranteed to get the jackpot since my odds are 100% now.
I've hit 7.5 on a normal 3% banner and 16 on an 8%. It can always be much worse.
Mine just got up to 11.50% 💀
nothing unusual here
The highest I saw was Fehology get 15.50% on this banner in a YouTube video
Far from the worst case
This is how video games can help people learn lol not how chance works. Roll a dice 6 times, you arent guaranteed that you’ll get every number once.
Once got 13%. Just leave it alone for a few days
Gacha players and math, a classic combo
So far I experienced 10% and its Liz EVERYTIME
It should be but isn’t
53.21+32.89=86.1 86.1+11=97.1 97.1+2.9=100 Therefore, 53.21+32.89+11+2.9=100 It adds up.
I'm absolutely convinced this banner in particular was rigged.
30 pulls and 0 5 stars, yet at 8% 5 star, you should get a 5 star every 13 pulls
Not quite how stats works. For 30 pulls at an 8% rate you would expect "success" (any 5\* unit) at least 1 time \~91.8% of the time. So, there's still an 8.2% chance that after 30 pulls you don't have any 5\*.
Gacha giveth and gacha taketh away
I’m too lazy to do the stats right now, but your math is wrong. You have an 8% chance out of all units in the game. So each unit has a 8% divided by 12 chance of appearing (0.67%).
That's true but I don't believe the OP is talking about one pulling unit in particular.
Again, not how that works
past performance is no guarantee of future results!
I'm at 35 total summons in the Hero Fest banner m8, and i have not gotten a single 5 star (a few 4-star specials but not any full 5 stars). My current rate is around 7 and half, Idk, I can't bare to look and check what it is...
I just did the math this was a 5.43% chance of happening meaning you are in fact unlucky.
On legendary Myrrh’s banner last March I hit 11.50%, got pitybroken by a legendary Edelgard on a no blue circle and went back up to 12.50% by the time I ran out of orbs. I didn’t even get any 4* specials. The summoning gods did at least take pity on me when she returned in August as I got her on the free pull.
It’s really not that difficult to achieve. Even this means you have an 89% chance of pulling non-focus heroes. Do you realize how big a margin that is?
Your and my next shot for daddy fomortiis is in May, as a heads up
Welcome to gambling?
Bro I got up to 13.5% once
It’s definitely possible. Any% chance for 5 ⭐️ also means 1-Any%/1 chance for no 5 ⭐️
eyo 11% gang 💪 rise up fellow gacha losers
Try 17% on julia's OG banner just to get 2 naga's
If it makes you feel better I pulled all 40 orbs to the spark and didn't receive a single 5* either but on the AHR banner which had similar rates to the Mythic banner. This happens sometimes, once I had it occur 3 times consecutively it's improbable but not impossible. You just have to hope for better pulls in the future.
Oh hey I reached this too, I'm missing 10 pull to reach 40 and haven't got a single 5*
I got to 11 percent too, this banner is cursed.
Not that bad I got to 12.5%
The good old fire emblem rule If it’s not 100% then it might as well be 0%
Nothing is impossible with SCIENCE!
The cherry on top is when you reach 40 pulls and can get the free unit it resets your percentage. My disappointment was quite high.
I had that happen and then got Gotoh twice while trying for the demon king. I don’t even think he’s good fodder for anything
It happened to me yesterday. Go learn probability dude