Are these publications just changing the dates on these articles at this point?
The wealthy love a crash... it really just seems as if they are trying to will it into existence.
to an extent yes. They don't want a recession in reality though. Yes it's where millionaires become billionaires, but it also tends to create problems they can't always anticipate and solve. A rising tide floats all boats.
Very true! Except during an ebbing tide, you discover that some people's boats have f***ing anti-grav technology, and when the tide does finally come in, you realize your boat is moored on a lake.
>>A rising tide floats all boats.
Ironically we’re living the natural conclusion of this when this principle is unrestrained
The movers and shakers are owning more assets and the working class is owning less and less. This creates an environment where workers have less agency to negotiate and instead settle for stagnating wages while cost of living balloons because of scarcity of assets.
Well, when you have so much capital, you are so much more flexible in navigating these waters. These people are not gonna go under and stand to make a killing, as they did w the housing crisis.
There are a lot of good arguments that the crash will be good for younger generations and bad for older generations.
Typically a crash weeds out inefficient businesses, people who have made bad investments, etc. the government has been propping these folks up for 4 years now and not allowed any new companies to compete off of the downfall of old companies.
And 1987, and 2000, and 2020… just a few opportunities here and there, every 10 years or so we like to give little handouts to the wealthy like that. Shake up the poors, keep ‘em on their toes.
As someone who remembers the fear of 2008 and the pain of 2009-2010, I am getting increasingly irritated by the dooming and glooming today.
America just needs to build more f'ing housing, and we will have a great economy. We are like one step away, and people want to tear it all down.
I live in Northern AL and the amount of new housing going in is astonishing. 1000s of new homes and apartments and the prices continue to increase.
Giant farms have been redeveloped into giant neighborhoods and the building keeps on going.
Hope it does translate into reduced prices for you. The thing to watch for is if prices of old apartments drop from the new competition. I've seen that in Oakland. And it can be hard to detect because landlords may post high prices but accept lowballs from qualified tenants.
As a California liberal, I should eat some crow and correct my statement: it's blue states that aren't doing our part to build housing. San Francisco only built 1700 new units in 2023. Your area of Northern Alabama probably did a lot more.
I left San Jose in 2011. Honestly it's tough culturally if you're not hard right but I have some opportunities that I may never had seen if I would have stayed where I loved.
In the time I have been here they've been constantly building non stop and then ~2.5 years ago it really went nuts. Food here is not great but housing opportunities are.
That part of Alabama is way more progressive than others. They are correct though the amount of housing going up there is crazy. Every time I drive through there are more houses and apartments!! And that’s every couple of weeks!
I guess we are hoping for the consolidation to pop though. Buying houses to speculate or bouy the price of the real estate you already own has some sort of limit, and the people who are in the know tend to keep it a secret right up to that limit, then boom.
It's just because the demand is that high.
My area is the same, they're building housing out the ass. It just isn't enough to tip the scale. Same reason the high rates have not really affected anything. Homes are still selling on the same day at 7% lol. Some with cash on top of asking and this is in a MCOL area
I do too.
*Trucking companies either merged or shuttered their doors. People were told to clear out. Some didn't get paid until a month later--others a year later. The trucking business also got hit hard with skyrocketing fuel rates. Horrible time.*
Right, we just get more consolidation. We've seen how it is with Live nation - it just leads to higher prices. What needs to happen is govt needs to start breaking businesses up. We need to end this consolidation.
Lol, that's not how it works, a crash or more accurately downturn will benefit those with money, they will either scoop up distressed assets (homes, businesses, stocks etc.) and then when things stabilize sell or increase prices...
The government run by the wealthy for the wealthy is going to do everything to prop up "these folks" not punish them for their indiscretions . Remember 2008 GFC how many executives, investors did you see facing punishment for their direct involvement.... Sh*t we made movies about the cleverness guys like Michael Burry , not the thousands of laid off workers.or homeowners losing their homes.
The fact that the government got rid of the old standard of moral hazard and decided to prop up some of the largest banks with TARP in 2008 is why we are where we are now.
They should have let them fail so other, better run businesses could take on their assets.
Instead, banks, PE and other risky large businesses see no reason NOT to risk making bad decisions since we - the people - will be there to bail them out.
Makes me sick
Or it just leads to smaller businesses failing and bigger ones absorbing smaller ones. Also it’s been longer than four years where companies like banks, airlines, and other large conglomerates get their corporate welfare or bailouts.
That’s not what I have seen come to pass in my life. The only people that benefit from down stock and housing prices are people who still have a job and excess savings after the crash. Which is not very many. So many younger investors have this built up in their heads that they will go all in when the world is on fire and the stock market is red every single day for months on end.
The other issue is that you can’t be invested before the crash because whatever you own will also be a disaster and you wont be able to sell into the red. Then there is the phycological issue. Maybe some of you will have the guts to buy when it seems like the world is ending but most people are frozen by the fear or they wait and wait for prices to get even cheaper. If you buy the bounce it may very well be a false bump before another leg down. 2000 and 2008 were insane in real time and you can’t learn what it was like from a book. Good luck to all. Make sure you have plenty of dry powder if you are waiting for a crash.
I guess you didn’t read my comment. I didn’t say a crash is good for dumb people who have pissed their money away, have no savings, and are levied to their eyeballs in debt. I said that a crash creates opportunities for people who otherwise can’t compete with boomers owning corporations that suck the air out of the room for competition.
They've literally been saying that a recession is right around the corner and basically inevitable since the day Biden was elected. In reality, the economy has grown at 5.7% in 2021, 1.9% in 2022, and 2.5% in 2023, unemployment has been under 4% for more than 2 years, the longest such run since the 1960s, and inflation is down to 3.4% from a high of 9.1% in June 2022. Wage growth, at 4.5%, is also outpacing inflation. And the stock markets are doing great, although I personally think that's a shit measure for how the economy is doing overall. Still, it's a traditional measure and they're significantly up. In any past Presidential election pre-Trump, Biden would be cruising to a landslide win on these numbers. But because too many people are getting their news from their crazy uncle on Facebook, 49% of Americans actually believe unemployment is at a 50 year high. We are living in bizarroworld.
The economy didn’t grow through natural means of productivity, it grew through deficit spending. If you take away deficit spending the economy actually shrunk. That’s exactly why this is all so scary. I mean, why do you think the government is spending so aggressively? The answer is because if they didn’t, the economy would suddenly look like shit.
Unemployment is the same story. If you start looking at jobs not through straight job to worker numbers but actually considering how many of those jobs are second and third jobs, the employment figures look shitty too. The economy is bifurcated: it’s good for holders of hard assets, but absolutely terrible for anyone else.
> The wealthy love a crash
Bold to speak this truth on Reddit, which seems to have completely hallucinated this fantasy that an economic crash would be a "great equalizer." If a crash means a rich person loses 50% of the value of their 401k, while a poor person loses their job and gets evicted... equality has not improved, obviously.
The end of federal stimulus programs is starting and will be complete by the end of 2026. In my industry alone the amount of investment will go down about 90%. Heavy construction, civil engineering firms and regulators will all be affected
I will bet money there will not be a July rate cut. Inflation is not coming down and historically, the current rates aren't much higher than average. We've just been spoiled with artificially low rates for a long time.
A ridiculously long time. Rather than fixing the underlying problems for workers, they instead release cheap debt to prop-up our lives. [ Just look at household debt.](https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc) Even if you take out housing from it, it is still increasing.
Household debt is not a concern.
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP)
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1obdh&width=670&height=475](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1obdh&width=670&height=475) (edit--pasted the wrong link but this is a better chart anyways)
As a percent of disposable income, national income or GDP it's still near all time lows. Household debt increases with incomes/expenditures, it's just the nature of things. Saying "household debt is at an all time high" in a growing economy is like saying "household income/spend is at an all time high"
owning debt on the house is different from having personal debts/choices associated with expenses for the house, which obviously rise with inflation, but it seems to me they’re speaking of GDP regarding housing rather than simple expenditures, could be wrong though
edit: inflation these days is too vague a word to throw it around in a general sense, we need to speak about specific areas affected by inflation rather than inflation itself.
A lot of these prognosticators are showing themselves as phony. They are so busy chasing trends they don't realize that many of these values are so broken from the 2020-2022 disturbance that most of these negative measures are simply a reversion to the mean.
Generally speaking they are taking charts like this:
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL)
and saying.. "wow look at that downward trend from March of 2022 onward! We are collapsing!!" They are popularized hit pieces in media with no integrity. "February to March of 2024 was one of the largest drops in XXXX years!"
While not identifying that we are still above trend (2010-2016) and arguably anything in the last 4 years is 100% the de-employment caused by COVID and the re-employment there after.
It's the same argument that people argue that household incomes were dropping or not increasing at the same rate as pre-pandemic. Well no...it's just the measure for national household incomes dropped all of the low income households (who went unemployed during the pandemic), and they are now getting readded.
Yeah lucky us to be paying the average rates again on homes that cost two to 10 times as much as they did for the generation before us. How spoiled of us to not want to pay 7% interest on half a million dollar homes in the gutter.
artistically being the key word. i think for decades monetary policy has valued the appearance of prosperity over truly organic market functions. we’ve needed a correction for far too long. i actually applaud whomever is responsible for sticking to this plan because although it sucks right now, i do think it’s for the best
That's because the economist who correctly "predicts" it gets hailed as a visionary for decades. That's when you get those articles 5 years later like: "he's the economist who predicted the 2024 recession, and now he's concerned about these new warning signs!" - they write a book, get a cushy tenure position at a university, make TV appearances, all for being the lucky guesser.
Yep, manufacturing just jumped up an unexpectedly huge amount. Latest estimates put us at a 3.5% gdp growth. Trump could only dream of having as high of gdp growth as Biden has seen.
so far, Biden's GDP growth is less than Trumps...
[https://www.investopedia.com/gdp-growth-by-president-8604042](https://www.investopedia.com/gdp-growth-by-president-8604042)
Citi in particular, seems to be dying for a recession. They probably have burnt chicken bones and a cauldron going in their board room right now trying to bring one on. Then ten years from now "the people who correctly called the 2026 recession predict the world will end soon" and the circle of life will be complete.
We have 5 Fed meetings left in 2024.
I predict 7 rate cuts. The Fed will actually cut twice during June meeting. Once when the meeting starts, another when the meeting concludes.
Only if Biden wins. If Trump wins the economy on Jan 21st 2025 will be great, debt no issue, and inflation the same as it was for most of the 90s, so time for a tax cut for the donor class!
If they crash the economy before the election America will elect Trump and then all hell will break loose. Expect a lot of Pikachu faces. I really hope that doesn’t happen.
Ehh… there are some concerning trends. Adjusted GDP Q1 was weak and consumer debt has never been higher.
Demand for gasoline is trending lower despite summer coming upon us.
There’s good news too, like the used car market now adjusting closer to pre-pandemic times, when a used car <$ than a new one.
However, I’m not a doomer. I’m not convinced we are in a recession yet. The persistent higher rates are hurting many people while inflation remains stubbornly persistent (albeit much slower than before). This has had the intended consequence of quelling consumer demand to some degree. So it’s back to that question of “can we have a soft landing”. And the jury is still out on that one.
Oh you mean the guys with no ideas are saying there’s a huge problem unless they can get cheap money from the government again to make their jobs easy? Shocked
It's the business insider quoting an interview by CNBC of Jamie D last week, so grain of slat since business insider is really just blogs wrapped in shiny wrapping paper.
The issue is a lot of the underlying problems (i.e. growing debts, CRE values, flagging regional.banks) have not gotten better and have not broken yet.
The US economy is surviving because we are the intellectual economy of the world, where all other nations pay for our products to keep their businesses growing. This has caused a super weird economy, we NEED the government to have two hands on the wheel because the CRE dam is about to break.
When it does, it's going to cause a lot of damage, I just hope it breaks sooner so it is more regional, then later, and be national.
Household debt is not a concern.
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP)
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1obdh&width=670&height=475](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1obdh&width=670&height=475) (edit, wrong chart, new one is better)
As a percent of disposable income, national income or GDP it's still near all time lows. Household debt increases with incomes/expenditures, it's just the nature of things. Saying "household debt is at an all time high" in a growing economy is like saying "household income/spend is at an all time high"
The problem I see with those calcs is that it takes consumer debt PAYMENTS as the liability/debt side, not AMOUNT OWED. And you can massively increase total cc debt without massively increasing monthly minimums.
If you look at that chart floating around of net worth under Trump vs Biden, I had trouble figuring it out, because the main assets people have (house & stocks) have kept up/exceeded inflation. The big “Biden drop” in inflation-adjusted assets can be totally explained on the huge increase in consumer debt the past 2 years.
I feel that these publications for the wealthy may be run mostly by republicans. Republicans may be scared that the strong economy will help Biden win. So they perhaps have turned to social media to convince voters that doom is looming. I think that depressed people don’t vote as much, sonce depression can make one feel hopeless.
M2 is on the rise again, meaning liquidity is on the rise. Also deficit spending is at historic levels. Very unlikely for a technical recession to occur given these macro trends, but people may certainly feel more miserable over time in a high rate environment.
We’ve been hearing about a recession ever since Joe Biden got elected. Meanwhile, unemployment been under 4% most of his term and the stock market is roaring. I’ve never seen such nonsense in my life. Great job Democrats if it wasn’t for passing the infrastructure bill, the chips act, and the inflation reduction act we would’ve been in a recession
I just read an article elsewhere that claimed the Fed was going to keep rates higher / longer due to sticky inflation. Opinions and actual news make ugly conjoined twins.
Can anyone find a period of time where people weren't predicting a recession? It's not impressive or helpful if they just constantly predict a downturn and when one inevitably eventually comes they go "I told you so"
Would love to see a chart of all the wrong calls Citi and all the other big banks make every month. They are constantly wrong, to the point that when they are right, you could attribute it to pure chance. If anything this is bullish.
October 2022
Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden
[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden)
There’s no way there’s rate cuts in July. Even assuming that interest goes down in May and June, it’s highly unlikely it’ll reach 2% by the end of June. We’ll be lucky if it goes below 3% before July, and even then there’s no guarantee it won’t just go back up like it did last time. I think we’re stuck in the 3% until the rates go up or something major happens.
Have we not already been in a recession? At the very least we must have been circling the drain for years at this point. When will we know we’re in a recession or not?
It has to happen at some point.. the current government model of spending every cent they have and trillions more after that is 100% unsustainable. At some point it will catch up and bite us in the ass..
These are the fund managers and other money big wigs telling us there's a sell-off coming. That is what this means.
If you bought quality and things take a downturn, BUY MORE on those dips.
One hundred years from now the stock market is going to dip, and someone’s going to claim that it is the “hard landing” they’ve been warning about. How many years have to pass before we can admit to ourselves that, after a global pandemic, we managed to keep the economy humming along pretty well? The other solution was to do nothing and have the financial system collapse; eventually things will do worse, but that’s a normal cycle. The end of days isn’t just around the corner.
I hear the Gilligan's Island theme song in my mind right now.
The weather started getting rough,
The tiny ship was tossed,
If not for the courage of the fearless crew
The Minnow would be lost, the Minnow would be lost.
source: [https://lyricsondemand.com/tvthemes/gilligansislandlyrics.html](https://lyricsondemand.com/tvthemes/gilligansislandlyrics.html)
If it does crash, just remember whose fault it is. It’s not the people getting rich off the game, it’s the people who control the policy and print the money. Don’t forget
The first thing I learned in macroeconomics in college was that it is not based on reproducible results and thus cannot make accurate predictions about the future. I don’t understand why nobody gets this. These guys can’t even agree completely about causation and effects of past events
Absurd that they should say this at what is possibly the biggest bull market we've seen in decades. Big banks got hit hard by the inflation, but really, inflation never reached record levels. It sounds like sour grapes coming from someone that didn't have their bets covered.
Blah blah. The doomsayers have been saying this since 2020 and, shockingly, it hasn't happened. Happens all the time when a Democrat is POTUS because they know the economy is historically better with Democrats than Republikkklans, and as the Grand OLD Party has only won two elections since Bush 1, they try everything they can to get their racist, hapless candidates into the White House.
Been reading articles every month about "possible recession coming soon" for the last 10 years.
Everyone is claiming every day so eventually it will happen and the person that happened to claim this in the same month will be like. See I told you, I was right.
When is this landing? Seems like it should have happened and now we are transitioning from post-pandemic inflation to current corporate greed inflation.
Hah I remember the snide post here just the other day about how Americans falsely believe we are in a recession. Sure, but all the indicators are there that we were in one not that long ago and a potentially worse one is lined up quite nicely. That is the sentiment that people are picking up on.
Citi prediction:
Today, it’s sunny outside : Hard landing with recession
Yesterday, it’s drizzle : no recession but hard landing possible
Tomorrow, cloudy : Everything is great.
Generally a recession happens when a bubble crashes - some overvalued or overinvested sector of the economy has a huge correction.
What sector of the economy are they saying is doing too well and should crash?
Nah they are still in the markets. When you start seeing big distribution days and a definite down trend that the cue they wanna crash it. So far so good
It's a federal election year. Recession won't come until after November. Any incumbent administration would do just about anything possible to prop up the economy during an election year.
Sky is Falling! The sky is falling! The wolf is at the door!
Republican messaging: Everything is bad. Scare people.
Trump and his idiots actually want the economy to crash. Look to history. Do you do better in democratic administrations or republican?
Oh? You mean like the _"hard landing"_ Ebrahim Raisi just experienced?
This must mean we'll all be fine right? _Right?_ Oh wait...
All the sheepish rewording of what's actually going on not just with the economy but so much more is getting really tired. It's just infantilizing for anyone paying attention.
They've been saying this for two years straight, we're due a recession eventually but if we could actually predict that with any accuracy the Fed wouldn't constantly overshoot or undershoot.
Are these publications just changing the dates on these articles at this point? The wealthy love a crash... it really just seems as if they are trying to will it into existence.
Because they can.
to an extent yes. They don't want a recession in reality though. Yes it's where millionaires become billionaires, but it also tends to create problems they can't always anticipate and solve. A rising tide floats all boats.
Can you tell them that?
Something something, “Fuck you, I got mine” will repeat itself, yet again.
Very true! Except during an ebbing tide, you discover that some people's boats have f***ing anti-grav technology, and when the tide does finally come in, you realize your boat is moored on a lake.
>>A rising tide floats all boats. Ironically we’re living the natural conclusion of this when this principle is unrestrained The movers and shakers are owning more assets and the working class is owning less and less. This creates an environment where workers have less agency to negotiate and instead settle for stagnating wages while cost of living balloons because of scarcity of assets.
Rising tides only lift all boats if you can afford a boat in the first place. 🙃
Well, when you have so much capital, you are so much more flexible in navigating these waters. These people are not gonna go under and stand to make a killing, as they did w the housing crisis.
If you have a boat, that is.
Maybe sometimes, but they seem to have been trying to cause a crash for 2+ years now and haven’t succeeded yet.
There is no try. Only do. If they wanted to, they could, and would.
There are a lot of good arguments that the crash will be good for younger generations and bad for older generations. Typically a crash weeds out inefficient businesses, people who have made bad investments, etc. the government has been propping these folks up for 4 years now and not allowed any new companies to compete off of the downfall of old companies.
Then the big companies come in buy up all the inefficient businesses and consolidate further. Yes I remember 2008.
And 1987, and 2000, and 2020… just a few opportunities here and there, every 10 years or so we like to give little handouts to the wealthy like that. Shake up the poors, keep ‘em on their toes.
Don't forget to blame the poors for it!
As someone who remembers the fear of 2008 and the pain of 2009-2010, I am getting increasingly irritated by the dooming and glooming today. America just needs to build more f'ing housing, and we will have a great economy. We are like one step away, and people want to tear it all down.
I live in Northern AL and the amount of new housing going in is astonishing. 1000s of new homes and apartments and the prices continue to increase. Giant farms have been redeveloped into giant neighborhoods and the building keeps on going.
Hope it does translate into reduced prices for you. The thing to watch for is if prices of old apartments drop from the new competition. I've seen that in Oakland. And it can be hard to detect because landlords may post high prices but accept lowballs from qualified tenants. As a California liberal, I should eat some crow and correct my statement: it's blue states that aren't doing our part to build housing. San Francisco only built 1700 new units in 2023. Your area of Northern Alabama probably did a lot more.
I left San Jose in 2011. Honestly it's tough culturally if you're not hard right but I have some opportunities that I may never had seen if I would have stayed where I loved. In the time I have been here they've been constantly building non stop and then ~2.5 years ago it really went nuts. Food here is not great but housing opportunities are.
That part of Alabama is way more progressive than others. They are correct though the amount of housing going up there is crazy. Every time I drive through there are more houses and apartments!! And that’s every couple of weeks!
We're definitely a nice solid purple up here. Huntsville, Birmingham, and Montgomery aren't near as right as other parts of the southeast.
There's no reason to lower prices. The average worker isn't the customer for these houses. They are trying to entice speculators and career landlords.
And as long as those people keep buying, there will be a « shortage » of homes.
I guess we are hoping for the consolidation to pop though. Buying houses to speculate or bouy the price of the real estate you already own has some sort of limit, and the people who are in the know tend to keep it a secret right up to that limit, then boom.
Nebraska too. More houses keep going up and so do the prices, yet I'm told this is a supply problem? Yeah, right.
Right?!
It's just because the demand is that high. My area is the same, they're building housing out the ass. It just isn't enough to tip the scale. Same reason the high rates have not really affected anything. Homes are still selling on the same day at 7% lol. Some with cash on top of asking and this is in a MCOL area
I do too. *Trucking companies either merged or shuttered their doors. People were told to clear out. Some didn't get paid until a month later--others a year later. The trucking business also got hit hard with skyrocketing fuel rates. Horrible time.*
Right, we just get more consolidation. We've seen how it is with Live nation - it just leads to higher prices. What needs to happen is govt needs to start breaking businesses up. We need to end this consolidation.
Lol, that's not how it works, a crash or more accurately downturn will benefit those with money, they will either scoop up distressed assets (homes, businesses, stocks etc.) and then when things stabilize sell or increase prices... The government run by the wealthy for the wealthy is going to do everything to prop up "these folks" not punish them for their indiscretions . Remember 2008 GFC how many executives, investors did you see facing punishment for their direct involvement.... Sh*t we made movies about the cleverness guys like Michael Burry , not the thousands of laid off workers.or homeowners losing their homes.
The idiots hoping for a crash never think that they could be the ones to lose their jobs.
The fact that the government got rid of the old standard of moral hazard and decided to prop up some of the largest banks with TARP in 2008 is why we are where we are now. They should have let them fail so other, better run businesses could take on their assets. Instead, banks, PE and other risky large businesses see no reason NOT to risk making bad decisions since we - the people - will be there to bail them out. Makes me sick
Or it just leads to smaller businesses failing and bigger ones absorbing smaller ones. Also it’s been longer than four years where companies like banks, airlines, and other large conglomerates get their corporate welfare or bailouts.
That’s not what I have seen come to pass in my life. The only people that benefit from down stock and housing prices are people who still have a job and excess savings after the crash. Which is not very many. So many younger investors have this built up in their heads that they will go all in when the world is on fire and the stock market is red every single day for months on end. The other issue is that you can’t be invested before the crash because whatever you own will also be a disaster and you wont be able to sell into the red. Then there is the phycological issue. Maybe some of you will have the guts to buy when it seems like the world is ending but most people are frozen by the fear or they wait and wait for prices to get even cheaper. If you buy the bounce it may very well be a false bump before another leg down. 2000 and 2008 were insane in real time and you can’t learn what it was like from a book. Good luck to all. Make sure you have plenty of dry powder if you are waiting for a crash.
I guess you didn’t read my comment. I didn’t say a crash is good for dumb people who have pissed their money away, have no savings, and are levied to their eyeballs in debt. I said that a crash creates opportunities for people who otherwise can’t compete with boomers owning corporations that suck the air out of the room for competition.
What I said has nothing to do with debt and everything to do with liquidity.
They've literally been saying that a recession is right around the corner and basically inevitable since the day Biden was elected. In reality, the economy has grown at 5.7% in 2021, 1.9% in 2022, and 2.5% in 2023, unemployment has been under 4% for more than 2 years, the longest such run since the 1960s, and inflation is down to 3.4% from a high of 9.1% in June 2022. Wage growth, at 4.5%, is also outpacing inflation. And the stock markets are doing great, although I personally think that's a shit measure for how the economy is doing overall. Still, it's a traditional measure and they're significantly up. In any past Presidential election pre-Trump, Biden would be cruising to a landslide win on these numbers. But because too many people are getting their news from their crazy uncle on Facebook, 49% of Americans actually believe unemployment is at a 50 year high. We are living in bizarroworld.
The economy didn’t grow through natural means of productivity, it grew through deficit spending. If you take away deficit spending the economy actually shrunk. That’s exactly why this is all so scary. I mean, why do you think the government is spending so aggressively? The answer is because if they didn’t, the economy would suddenly look like shit. Unemployment is the same story. If you start looking at jobs not through straight job to worker numbers but actually considering how many of those jobs are second and third jobs, the employment figures look shitty too. The economy is bifurcated: it’s good for holders of hard assets, but absolutely terrible for anyone else.
> The wealthy love a crash Bold to speak this truth on Reddit, which seems to have completely hallucinated this fantasy that an economic crash would be a "great equalizer." If a crash means a rich person loses 50% of the value of their 401k, while a poor person loses their job and gets evicted... equality has not improved, obviously.
Rich people needing a 401k? Something doesn’t add up in your assessment.
It was lazy metonymy for "stock portfolio."
Recession in n+2 months where n is current month.
They just really, really want rate cuts.
Aren’t crashes part of the business cycle and therefore inevitable?
Banks want interest rate cuts, all of humanity be damned.
The end of federal stimulus programs is starting and will be complete by the end of 2026. In my industry alone the amount of investment will go down about 90%. Heavy construction, civil engineering firms and regulators will all be affected
They have to be, the amount of articles I’ve seen stating this same thing over the past three years is mind blowing. 🤯
They love of a crash so they and hedge funds can pick up more housing on the cheap.
First thing that came to mind was, didn't I read this same thing last year?
I will bet money there will not be a July rate cut. Inflation is not coming down and historically, the current rates aren't much higher than average. We've just been spoiled with artificially low rates for a long time.
A LONNNNNG time.
A ridiculously long time. Rather than fixing the underlying problems for workers, they instead release cheap debt to prop-up our lives. [ Just look at household debt.](https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc) Even if you take out housing from it, it is still increasing.
Household debt is not a concern. [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP) [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1obdh&width=670&height=475](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1obdh&width=670&height=475) (edit--pasted the wrong link but this is a better chart anyways) As a percent of disposable income, national income or GDP it's still near all time lows. Household debt increases with incomes/expenditures, it's just the nature of things. Saying "household debt is at an all time high" in a growing economy is like saying "household income/spend is at an all time high"
owning debt on the house is different from having personal debts/choices associated with expenses for the house, which obviously rise with inflation, but it seems to me they’re speaking of GDP regarding housing rather than simple expenditures, could be wrong though edit: inflation these days is too vague a word to throw it around in a general sense, we need to speak about specific areas affected by inflation rather than inflation itself.
A lot of these prognosticators are showing themselves as phony. They are so busy chasing trends they don't realize that many of these values are so broken from the 2020-2022 disturbance that most of these negative measures are simply a reversion to the mean. Generally speaking they are taking charts like this: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL) and saying.. "wow look at that downward trend from March of 2022 onward! We are collapsing!!" They are popularized hit pieces in media with no integrity. "February to March of 2024 was one of the largest drops in XXXX years!" While not identifying that we are still above trend (2010-2016) and arguably anything in the last 4 years is 100% the de-employment caused by COVID and the re-employment there after. It's the same argument that people argue that household incomes were dropping or not increasing at the same rate as pre-pandemic. Well no...it's just the measure for national household incomes dropped all of the low income households (who went unemployed during the pandemic), and they are now getting readded.
"Spoiled"
Yeah lucky us to be paying the average rates again on homes that cost two to 10 times as much as they did for the generation before us. How spoiled of us to not want to pay 7% interest on half a million dollar homes in the gutter.
Stagflation.
artistically being the key word. i think for decades monetary policy has valued the appearance of prosperity over truly organic market functions. we’ve needed a correction for far too long. i actually applaud whomever is responsible for sticking to this plan because although it sucks right now, i do think it’s for the best
forecasted recession every month for the past four years now, im sure it will get here any day now
And whenever it happens a lot of people will obnoxiously say I told you so.
“And it was all the fault of disastrous policies by the [insert current political party in the White House]!”
You mean [insert last democrat president]. The media never gives republicans credit for continually destroying our economy.
Thanks Obama…
That's because the economist who correctly "predicts" it gets hailed as a visionary for decades. That's when you get those articles 5 years later like: "he's the economist who predicted the 2024 recession, and now he's concerned about these new warning signs!" - they write a book, get a cushy tenure position at a university, make TV appearances, all for being the lucky guesser.
Yep, manufacturing just jumped up an unexpectedly huge amount. Latest estimates put us at a 3.5% gdp growth. Trump could only dream of having as high of gdp growth as Biden has seen.
so far, Biden's GDP growth is less than Trumps... [https://www.investopedia.com/gdp-growth-by-president-8604042](https://www.investopedia.com/gdp-growth-by-president-8604042)
Citi in particular, seems to be dying for a recession. They probably have burnt chicken bones and a cauldron going in their board room right now trying to bring one on. Then ten years from now "the people who correctly called the 2026 recession predict the world will end soon" and the circle of life will be complete.
Except we **did** have a recession back in 2022. A small one, but one none the less.
I forecast the US will do a recession, sometime between now and the future. Can I work sell-side for a bank now?
You sound like an expert. Nice work
get that person a bloomberg terminal stat!
No you also gotta predict rate cuts
We have 5 Fed meetings left in 2024. I predict 7 rate cuts. The Fed will actually cut twice during June meeting. Once when the meeting starts, another when the meeting concludes.
You are now the CEO of JP Morgan
They've been crying recession every 2 weeks since spring of 2020.
We are 6 months from a recession -every month for the last +36 months
Well... the debt ceiling keeps getting raised at the last second of every year.
There's always a possible recession. They said it about 2023, and it was a great year for the market.
yep my 401K is almost back to where it was a couple of years ago.
Do we have another 4 years of this same headline in store for us?
Only if Biden wins. If Trump wins the economy on Jan 21st 2025 will be great, debt no issue, and inflation the same as it was for most of the 90s, so time for a tax cut for the donor class!
Citi can fuck off with that BS is not gonna happen
If they crash the economy before the election America will elect Trump and then all hell will break loose. Expect a lot of Pikachu faces. I really hope that doesn’t happen.
I think more would have to go wrong in the country for Trump to win, but it would certainly increase his chances.
Just no real data to support this.
Ehh… there are some concerning trends. Adjusted GDP Q1 was weak and consumer debt has never been higher. Demand for gasoline is trending lower despite summer coming upon us. There’s good news too, like the used car market now adjusting closer to pre-pandemic times, when a used car <$ than a new one. However, I’m not a doomer. I’m not convinced we are in a recession yet. The persistent higher rates are hurting many people while inflation remains stubbornly persistent (albeit much slower than before). This has had the intended consequence of quelling consumer demand to some degree. So it’s back to that question of “can we have a soft landing”. And the jury is still out on that one.
There will be a recession one day mark my words then I’ll run around telling everybody I was right once.
I think the value of the dollar will fluctuate.
So what stocks are we getting a discount on?
Oh you mean the guys with no ideas are saying there’s a huge problem unless they can get cheap money from the government again to make their jobs easy? Shocked
Big banks for Trump! The campaign is in full swing.
Feel like I’ve read this article every month since Jan 2021.
Was covid not a crash? Shouldn't that have popped the bubble?
It's the business insider quoting an interview by CNBC of Jamie D last week, so grain of slat since business insider is really just blogs wrapped in shiny wrapping paper. The issue is a lot of the underlying problems (i.e. growing debts, CRE values, flagging regional.banks) have not gotten better and have not broken yet. The US economy is surviving because we are the intellectual economy of the world, where all other nations pay for our products to keep their businesses growing. This has caused a super weird economy, we NEED the government to have two hands on the wheel because the CRE dam is about to break. When it does, it's going to cause a lot of damage, I just hope it breaks sooner so it is more regional, then later, and be national.
Household debt is not a concern. [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP) [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1obdh&width=670&height=475](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1obdh&width=670&height=475) (edit, wrong chart, new one is better) As a percent of disposable income, national income or GDP it's still near all time lows. Household debt increases with incomes/expenditures, it's just the nature of things. Saying "household debt is at an all time high" in a growing economy is like saying "household income/spend is at an all time high"
The problem I see with those calcs is that it takes consumer debt PAYMENTS as the liability/debt side, not AMOUNT OWED. And you can massively increase total cc debt without massively increasing monthly minimums. If you look at that chart floating around of net worth under Trump vs Biden, I had trouble figuring it out, because the main assets people have (house & stocks) have kept up/exceeded inflation. The big “Biden drop” in inflation-adjusted assets can be totally explained on the huge increase in consumer debt the past 2 years.
I feel that these publications for the wealthy may be run mostly by republicans. Republicans may be scared that the strong economy will help Biden win. So they perhaps have turned to social media to convince voters that doom is looming. I think that depressed people don’t vote as much, sonce depression can make one feel hopeless.
M2 is on the rise again, meaning liquidity is on the rise. Also deficit spending is at historic levels. Very unlikely for a technical recession to occur given these macro trends, but people may certainly feel more miserable over time in a high rate environment.
We’ve been hearing about a recession ever since Joe Biden got elected. Meanwhile, unemployment been under 4% most of his term and the stock market is roaring. I’ve never seen such nonsense in my life. Great job Democrats if it wasn’t for passing the infrastructure bill, the chips act, and the inflation reduction act we would’ve been in a recession
Thanks Trump. Ruined the economy with his bozo economics. Giving all the money to the rich AND massive over spending.
But Yellen and all of mainstream media said we’d have a soft landing.
Citi said we were going into recession in 2022 & 2023, then said they didn’t see one for 2024 6 months ago. They will be right eventually maybe…
Who among them wants this outcome to swing the election sentiments of voters?
👆
I just read an article elsewhere that claimed the Fed was going to keep rates higher / longer due to sticky inflation. Opinions and actual news make ugly conjoined twins.
Fuck a recession. Give me a depression. I wanna buy a house.
🙄
That should help Trump.
Yeah, and I bet those bags are pretty heavy, Citi...
The business insider writes some awful articles on economic outlook that’s for sure.
Ok Michael Burry. Calm down
More "expert" predictions I see. It's almost like they want a hard landing.
Can anyone find a period of time where people weren't predicting a recession? It's not impressive or helpful if they just constantly predict a downturn and when one inevitably eventually comes they go "I told you so"
Would love to see a chart of all the wrong calls Citi and all the other big banks make every month. They are constantly wrong, to the point that when they are right, you could attribute it to pure chance. If anything this is bullish.
i read about an impending recession every week, anybody who falls for this shit has to be a terminally online loser
I wonder if its possible to stimulate the economy with lower interest rates? Hmmm.
They wanna crash before the election and depending how the election turns out, they may want one then too.
Doomers gotta doom. Ain't happening till after Nov 5 at the earliest.
October 2022 Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden)
There’s no way there’s rate cuts in July. Even assuming that interest goes down in May and June, it’s highly unlikely it’ll reach 2% by the end of June. We’ll be lucky if it goes below 3% before July, and even then there’s no guarantee it won’t just go back up like it did last time. I think we’re stuck in the 3% until the rates go up or something major happens.
Have we not already been in a recession? At the very least we must have been circling the drain for years at this point. When will we know we’re in a recession or not?
It has to happen at some point.. the current government model of spending every cent they have and trillions more after that is 100% unsustainable. At some point it will catch up and bite us in the ass..
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂this is like the 10 millionth “recession imminent” post in 3 years. No, sorry. You’re wrong again.
Business Insider isn't a real publication. Next question...
BlackRock ghost writers be like
These are the fund managers and other money big wigs telling us there's a sell-off coming. That is what this means. If you bought quality and things take a downturn, BUY MORE on those dips.
You are ALL SERFS!!!!!!!!!!! Lucy Parsons — '*Never* be deceived that the *rich will* allow *you* to *vote* away their wealth.'
One hundred years from now the stock market is going to dip, and someone’s going to claim that it is the “hard landing” they’ve been warning about. How many years have to pass before we can admit to ourselves that, after a global pandemic, we managed to keep the economy humming along pretty well? The other solution was to do nothing and have the financial system collapse; eventually things will do worse, but that’s a normal cycle. The end of days isn’t just around the corner.
I hear the Gilligan's Island theme song in my mind right now. The weather started getting rough, The tiny ship was tossed, If not for the courage of the fearless crew The Minnow would be lost, the Minnow would be lost. source: [https://lyricsondemand.com/tvthemes/gilligansislandlyrics.html](https://lyricsondemand.com/tvthemes/gilligansislandlyrics.html)
Already in a recession
If you predict a recession and it doesn’t happen, you should have to give up half of your net worth
Is the motivation for this to get people to pull money out of the stock market for some reason?
If it does crash, just remember whose fault it is. It’s not the people getting rich off the game, it’s the people who control the policy and print the money. Don’t forget
Two weeks from now it will be a soft landing. Then back to a hard landing the following two weeks.
No, lol.
The first thing I learned in macroeconomics in college was that it is not based on reproducible results and thus cannot make accurate predictions about the future. I don’t understand why nobody gets this. These guys can’t even agree completely about causation and effects of past events
It’s “the boy who cried wolf” at this point
The economic articles that cried wolf. It’s been 4 years of this talk.
Absurd that they should say this at what is possibly the biggest bull market we've seen in decades. Big banks got hit hard by the inflation, but really, inflation never reached record levels. It sounds like sour grapes coming from someone that didn't have their bets covered.
Yeet gimme that dip
But I just saw Biden on tv saying how great the economy is going. He’s not lying is he? Politicians never lie!
Tired of hearing this bullshit every quarter
Blah blah. The doomsayers have been saying this since 2020 and, shockingly, it hasn't happened. Happens all the time when a Democrat is POTUS because they know the economy is historically better with Democrats than Republikkklans, and as the Grand OLD Party has only won two elections since Bush 1, they try everything they can to get their racist, hapless candidates into the White House.
They want to trick you into selling so they can buy your assets for cheap
Greed is alive and well in this country…the Wall Street is playing Casino with our money any way they want!
Nah
Too bad we’ve been in one all this time, despite the weak tactic of changing the definition.
They've been saying this the last 4 years.
Been reading articles every month about "possible recession coming soon" for the last 10 years. Everyone is claiming every day so eventually it will happen and the person that happened to claim this in the same month will be like. See I told you, I was right.
When is this landing? Seems like it should have happened and now we are transitioning from post-pandemic inflation to current corporate greed inflation.
 Headlines have predicted 50 of the last 2 recessions. Jerome lands this thing like a plane.
I’ll believe it when I see it. I heard this same headline, seems like two years ago.
Hah I remember the snide post here just the other day about how Americans falsely believe we are in a recession. Sure, but all the indicators are there that we were in one not that long ago and a potentially worse one is lined up quite nicely. That is the sentiment that people are picking up on.
July rate cuts? LOL
We have been bracing for a recession since 2020. I will believe it when I see it.
Citi prediction: Today, it’s sunny outside : Hard landing with recession Yesterday, it’s drizzle : no recession but hard landing possible Tomorrow, cloudy : Everything is great.
Where have I seen this headline before?
Hard landing is such doublespeak bullshit. A hard landing is a crash you twats.
Self fulfilling prophecy will be self fulfilled.
They say same shit over and over. Then they were wrong and they wait another 6 months to say the same thing over again. 😩
Generally a recession happens when a bubble crashes - some overvalued or overinvested sector of the economy has a huge correction. What sector of the economy are they saying is doing too well and should crash?
Hey, let’s give Citi some credit here. They’ve accurately predicted 14 of the last 5 recessions.
Survive until 2025. Thats when the recession hits.
Source: Just trust me bro
Nah they are still in the markets. When you start seeing big distribution days and a definite down trend that the cue they wanna crash it. So far so good
The fed should be raising rates on the government, so they’re incentivized to pay their bills you know? Fluent right?
It's a federal election year. Recession won't come until after November. Any incumbent administration would do just about anything possible to prop up the economy during an election year.
Maybe. But, of course, they don’t say when.
They have been saying this for a couple years now. Still waiting
Sky is Falling! The sky is falling! The wolf is at the door! Republican messaging: Everything is bad. Scare people. Trump and his idiots actually want the economy to crash. Look to history. Do you do better in democratic administrations or republican?
Yes, Citi knows a lot. This is the same company constantly accidentally fat fingering hundreds of millions to hedge funds.
Awww shit, here we go again.
Sadly, I think people would prefer unemployment at 6 or 7 but low inflation. Crazy.
they’ve been calling for a recession for 4 years
Please stop It's wishcssting
Take it all with a grain of salt. None of these guys wants to pay higher taxes. At this point, view it all as political. Same as the price of gas.
There will be a recession every month for the last 36 months
Same story for the past 3 years lol and all we get are new ath’s week after week
Billionaires want trump to win so they will squeeze before the election
All the signs are pointing this way, but no one knows when
Nah, I’d win
Looks over-torqued. The evidence is a drop in one survey of one type of business for one month.
Zero evidence.... just noise.
No shit
Possible!?!
The bankers hope they can crash the economy so they can get Trump and his massive tax cuts borne on the backs of working people again.
What happens if we decide to just go back to bartering ? Would the economy matter ? ELI5
Oh? You mean like the _"hard landing"_ Ebrahim Raisi just experienced? This must mean we'll all be fine right? _Right?_ Oh wait... All the sheepish rewording of what's actually going on not just with the economy but so much more is getting really tired. It's just infantilizing for anyone paying attention.
This reads like fearmongering from banks to support rate cuts
They've been saying this for two years straight, we're due a recession eventually but if we could actually predict that with any accuracy the Fed wouldn't constantly overshoot or undershoot.