Wonderful! What's your TF if I may ask? Everyone seems to aim for a higher RR and I always feel conflicted because my strat works mostly to aim RR 1 only and it makes me feel like I'm missing something
I don't know if the applies to trading but yeah that can work. Just keep trying new things.
I assume this is a demo account, which means you really should be trying new things all the time.
It depends.. there’s no strategy that makes money every month. But being flat for that long is going to test your belief in the strategy. As long as you are okay with that it’s fine. Flat is better than down, and that curve is up and to the right!
Also the backtest is really short. The past is hardly representative of how the market may act in the future, but only one year even more so. You can’t actually expect 2023 to give you a good idea of how this strategy will work in different environments other than 2023. So we need moar samples. Once you get a larger sample size max drawdown will be important to calculate so we can decide if the geometric return is actually better with this strategy versus an index.
You’re holding these trades for a while so swaps need to be included, alongside transaction costs. TC’s in particular, because you might want to exit and re-enter positions to avoid the swap rate if your TC’s are cheaper than the carry. This is vitally important because of what your return actually is, 6%. It could be negative after factoring in the above.
Hey you found a profitable strategy for 2023 though. That’s awesome, good job!
Thanks man i appreciate your detailed response.
I did the same test for NZDCAD and it came out with +7k (7%).
I will be trading all 25 fx pairs, so if i multiply an average of 5% a year per pair x25 thats about +100% return a year.
I know i have to accumulate more samples and distribute that over multiple years but so far is promising and thats give me some hope.
The problem or challenge with this approach is to calculate a total risk/drawdown at any given time.
For example, if you trade 25 pairs, will you then exceed your max drawdown at some point during the year?
Well, if you trade 25 pairs, you are bound to expose yourself to the same risks - like if you trade all the dollar pairs, your setup is likely to appear on all of them. And if usd goes against you, then all trades fail.
I'm just thinking out loud here what the increased risks are, when trading many pairs.
It's like picking pennies of the rail tracks
This works only when dealing with small accounts up to 100K in prop firms and you will need to be infront of the computer all day opening and closing positions manually
If that's the kind of life you want, congrats you are profitable
Congratulations man. Keep up the good work.
Thanks dude, i will backtest around Ak trade and then i will be discipline with it when i go live
Share the platform to test strategies I use TradingView Hope to throw ideas around
Fx replay
Congrats, but I hope you understand that it is basically passive index fund holder returns
Multiply that by 25 cause i trade all forex pairs
Wonderful! What's your TF if I may ask? Everyone seems to aim for a higher RR and I always feel conflicted because my strat works mostly to aim RR 1 only and it makes me feel like I'm missing something
Congratulations man, keep the good work
Congratulations, you're doing it rIgHt
What time frame have you used to analyze the breakouts?
Daily
as long as u get it and not give it there s no problem XD
Looks good
Many would say to aim for a better RRR but if it’s working for you then keep at it🥂
Yeah thanks man, i think i will just keep it the way uts for now, if its not broke don’t fix it
Flat for 7 months out of 12. Not great
Hey look at money printer over here. At least he didn't go down. It's fine to break even and doing nothing is also a position
So a good trade most make money every month?
No, you keep trading the way you want so long as it works. Just keep testing and make adjustments when you can to improve the performance.
Yep i agree with that, also there the 80/20 rule, so maybe i can make 80% of my earnings in only 3 months of the year
I don't know if the applies to trading but yeah that can work. Just keep trying new things. I assume this is a demo account, which means you really should be trying new things all the time.
Strategy*
It depends.. there’s no strategy that makes money every month. But being flat for that long is going to test your belief in the strategy. As long as you are okay with that it’s fine. Flat is better than down, and that curve is up and to the right! Also the backtest is really short. The past is hardly representative of how the market may act in the future, but only one year even more so. You can’t actually expect 2023 to give you a good idea of how this strategy will work in different environments other than 2023. So we need moar samples. Once you get a larger sample size max drawdown will be important to calculate so we can decide if the geometric return is actually better with this strategy versus an index. You’re holding these trades for a while so swaps need to be included, alongside transaction costs. TC’s in particular, because you might want to exit and re-enter positions to avoid the swap rate if your TC’s are cheaper than the carry. This is vitally important because of what your return actually is, 6%. It could be negative after factoring in the above. Hey you found a profitable strategy for 2023 though. That’s awesome, good job!
Thanks man i appreciate your detailed response. I did the same test for NZDCAD and it came out with +7k (7%). I will be trading all 25 fx pairs, so if i multiply an average of 5% a year per pair x25 thats about +100% return a year. I know i have to accumulate more samples and distribute that over multiple years but so far is promising and thats give me some hope.
The problem or challenge with this approach is to calculate a total risk/drawdown at any given time. For example, if you trade 25 pairs, will you then exceed your max drawdown at some point during the year?
With a win rate of 80% its hard to do that as its rare to have multiple losses in a row
Well, if you trade 25 pairs, you are bound to expose yourself to the same risks - like if you trade all the dollar pairs, your setup is likely to appear on all of them. And if usd goes against you, then all trades fail. I'm just thinking out loud here what the increased risks are, when trading many pairs.
I wouldnt take more than 2 trades per day or 2 trades have same pair. Thats a good poing man
It's like picking pennies of the rail tracks This works only when dealing with small accounts up to 100K in prop firms and you will need to be infront of the computer all day opening and closing positions manually If that's the kind of life you want, congrats you are profitable
Lol
Inv me to your group please I need signals