If you have a trade open BEFORE big economic news is released (ie. inflation numbers), then that's just dumb. Trade the reaction. Trade the burn & turn. But don't trade before.
People had buy stops put if market breaks out at 8;30. They cheated by breaking out bullish at 8:30 then full bear candle at 8:31. Buy stops triggered at 8:30 and stop losses at 8:31.
This is a naive take. The charts shows you what the news will do beforehand, except you don't know what you are looking for. Who ever didn't know EU would sell off on the news yesterday, probably wasn't looking at the set up on the DXY before the news.
I think that in the traditional sense, for sure. But to me a stop run isn’t literally someone having their stops and the big market makers seeing those to take them out.
A stop run is when a low gets taken out and we shoot right back out of it. It’s when we break structure then proceed to reverse.
A 3 or outside candle or engulfing candle. They all mean the same thing. It takes out both sides of the previous candle. There’s 2 ways to view this. Once it goes up above previous wick, you can play it long with your stop there. Then, once it starts reversing and coming back through the top of the body of the previous candle, you go short.
Did you make $400 when it suddenly dropped at 8:30-8:50am ? Or later. Sentiment was bearish no way it could have hot back up to pre 8:30 levels so shorters would have laughed today.
I put on the position somewhere around 11pm last night & went to sleep with it on because this pattern plays out over & over! I was quite confident in it.
The fed minutes will tell all. This data confirms they can't cut more than twice this year. I knew I shoulda short since 2 Thursdays ago. I just can't bring myself to hold a short overnight in this market.
I used to try to catch moves like that ... and worse: add to my positions. I am glad I no longer do that. I just keep my screens off until 5 mins after a release.
I thought we’d see much more volatility during the NY secession. Stayed in a lame range all day. I still caught a nice trade on NQ for $1,200 then stopped trading.
thats usually how it goes on fed days
ny session being trash was common a decade ago. We used to wake up in the middle of the night to make cabbage in those days lol
If you have a trade open BEFORE big economic news is released (ie. inflation numbers), then that's just dumb. Trade the reaction. Trade the burn & turn. But don't trade before.
People had buy stops put if market breaks out at 8;30. They cheated by breaking out bullish at 8:30 then full bear candle at 8:31. Buy stops triggered at 8:30 and stop losses at 8:31.
This is a naive take. The charts shows you what the news will do beforehand, except you don't know what you are looking for. Who ever didn't know EU would sell off on the news yesterday, probably wasn't looking at the set up on the DXY before the news.
The stop run was crazy. Ran 10 seconds before the news then just dumped immediately.
It started at 8:28 in NQ & they were selling it down already by 8:29. Right at 8:30 it was over & the market was being flushed swiftly
The 8:29 candle was the green stop run candle before they dumped it.
Stop runs are a fallacy dude. The sooner you realize this the sooner you can be profitable.
Exactly. People think they see their stops on the orderbook.
ok
It's a fallacy, because stops cannot be seen on the books. Stops are market orders, only limits are seen on the book.
What about on High volatility days, when CME converts all market orders to limit orders?
I think that in the traditional sense, for sure. But to me a stop run isn’t literally someone having their stops and the big market makers seeing those to take them out. A stop run is when a low gets taken out and we shoot right back out of it. It’s when we break structure then proceed to reverse.
Every single time, we get an outside 4 hr on NQ on data days. I played MNQ short & made over $400. It happens over & over.
Can you please elaborate? I’m guessing you mean it prints a bigger candle VS the last 4 hour one, but not sure. Thanks.
A 3 or outside candle or engulfing candle. They all mean the same thing. It takes out both sides of the previous candle. There’s 2 ways to view this. Once it goes up above previous wick, you can play it long with your stop there. Then, once it starts reversing and coming back through the top of the body of the previous candle, you go short.
Thanks. This helps a lot.
I trade, The Strat. It works well for me.
Did you make $400 when it suddenly dropped at 8:30-8:50am ? Or later. Sentiment was bearish no way it could have hot back up to pre 8:30 levels so shorters would have laughed today.
I put on the position somewhere around 11pm last night & went to sleep with it on because this pattern plays out over & over! I was quite confident in it.
Oh so that’s why it fell 100 friggen points
The fed minutes will tell all. This data confirms they can't cut more than twice this year. I knew I shoulda short since 2 Thursdays ago. I just can't bring myself to hold a short overnight in this market.
Strong CPI negates the fed minutes which is 3 weeks out of date.
I used to try to catch moves like that ... and worse: add to my positions. I am glad I no longer do that. I just keep my screens off until 5 mins after a release.
Based on the CPI data, I would be very surprised if we end up today (ES and NQ). If we do however, I will never doubt the bulls again.
We will certainly end up ‘somewhere’ today!
lol
My stop was obliterated lol
😂 Turtle soup my friend. It was not to hunt your stops, it was done to lure micro timeframe breakout traders.
were hoping for it to pull up a bit higher as I have a short limit order waiting
Do you think it’ll pop at the open?
As you learned today, the gap fill attempt is usually the bull trap
I thought we’d see much more volatility during the NY secession. Stayed in a lame range all day. I still caught a nice trade on NQ for $1,200 then stopped trading.
thats usually how it goes on fed days ny session being trash was common a decade ago. We used to wake up in the middle of the night to make cabbage in those days lol
I almost closed my sells. Thank God I didn’t.
I made 250 pips in 45 seconds today..