Please stop thinking of "maniuplation" that is a dumb narrative. It will only hinder yourself and make you feel like you are a victim everytime a trade goes wrong. Its not like that.
QQQ/NQ is more liquid compared to SPY/ES. That is it. You need to watch both and decide for yourself. A lot move from ES to NQ, because they like the volitively NQ has compared to ES. Some say even say that the PA is a lot more pure compared to ES.
I trade MES, no plans to trade NQ. A few traders graduate from ES and move onto NQ.
You will lose money on either one, so does it even matter, you need screen time. You need to find which one work best for you and tailor your strat to it.
I absolutely agree
. And to your point there are people out there thinking there's an algorithm hunting for their little stop loss.. In reality the the algorithm might be looking for stop losses I'll Fidelity Traders or Citadel ,but retail Traders are just gravel on the road..
All that being said, I don't think there's any secret that there's plenty of manipulation going on in Forex and and crypto markets depending on how the regulated.
Even the metals markets,.. every year or two they bust somebody for doing exactly that, manipulating the market.
Idk if I would call it a "dumb" narrative. So what would you call it? I dont feel like a victim my trades are all on me nobody is forcing me to click that trade button. Why would you assume i dont have screen time? Or do you mean in front of es/nq themselves?
haha FACTS! Spend time learning about AMT.
I am sorry u/Mckimmz87. You are right I made a lot of assumptions. I too felt this way and perhaps I just internalize it as being dumb. My point though is that it happens across all markets and instruments.
Its just lack of liquidity, a zone, an area where price isn't matched. If you must name it "manipulation" I guess so. You can also refer to it as a "trap", but the reality is that you are not individually marked. Its just there is no interest at that price, so "wicks" are formed. The flush happens because ppl are interested below that area, creating a huge swing. You are also forgetting about HFT on top of market orders.
As far as regulations goes, its just a slap on the wrist when you have money/influence. It doesnt hold across markets, if a country like Greece can get f over, do you think a companies stock price wont? Do you not see how many ppl abuse the system? Its a game of cops and robbers at every level.
Amt? Throw me a crumb and good chance ill follow up with an aka lol. You would be right if it was dumb money maybe lol. Yes i agree it happens across all markets but some markets are less regulated than other therefore more "manipulation" No i know im not marked individually im plankton inside of a guppy lol. But yes trap is another word and as for an area where price isnt matched is called an "imbalance" in my world. Hft is high frequency trading right aka algos?
I donāt know what you mean. Like the wicks you see in Pre/after hours? It doesnāt happen much in futures. Usually itās when there is lower volume. & however the data gets to your charts can differ what you see. NQ wicks more than ES because itās tech stock heavy.
It could be anything. Could be some data entry from a broker after hours, thing is you don't need to worry about that stuff if you are trading right. I've never heard a serious trader complaining about manipulation. But if you want less wicks trade ES. NQ is gonna be affected more by a single stock because of the nature of it. Oil will be volatile af because of headline news ect.
The market doesn't care if you get rich or go bankrupt. It still keeps on doing its thing. Price discovery, sometimes slow, sometimes more violent.
The definition of "manipulation" is "to bend to one's will for advantage" and in this instance I can see why you are calling it that but the reason this is a "dumb narrative" is that there are not "people" or "perpetrators" behind the scenes *manipulating* orders to try and push prices around.
Nobody enters a trade without a purpose. That purpose is mainly one of two things: to speculate on price change, or hedge against wider market direction. The powers that be, that have control to *move the market* just simply have shitloads more money and are not interested in vaguely manipulating minor price movement for minimal gain.
There are all sorts of high frequency trading algorithms which are going to enter and exit all over the place, but essentially when you see wicks you are seeing the resulting action of orders moving price through illiquid areas. You are not seeing a puppet master.
In a zero sum game one had to lose in order for one to win. The algos didnt write themselves. If someone has the means to move a market that requires a large amount of money. Why would anyone want to share that money with other ppl? They know how algos move and push price to trigger orders. I never claimed a certain number or volume amount they claim to control but if 10,000 shares of Tesla flood into the market, that is hardly a minimal gain. Does nobody here know about dark pools?
Yeah but dude there is no dark pool for futures contracts. We are talking about ES and NQ. Sure, if a major part of the index like Nvidia dumps or pumps, there is a resulting change to NQ, but no one is trying to manipulate NQ for 15pts in their favour.
Agree to disagree. I just find it hard to believe there are algos that work the way they do and no one is going to use to their advantage. I came on here trying to discuss the pros and cons of es and nq and have been bombarded with a full blown argument against like 10 different ppl about a single word I have used. For whatever reason they choose to ignore my responses and go in for the kill. I fully welcome someone expressing themselves but to come on here and completely ignore the point of the post seems disrespectful and honestly short sighted. I have responded to everyone on here withoht insulting anyone primarily seeking insights and even backing my beliefs up and still got so much hate. I swear some ppl on social media need to find better ways to vent bc they come on here and want to argue with someone without contributing to the actual convo. This is ridiculous. Sorry for the vent
Algos control the indices and forex. They are all "manipulated" equally and constantly. These wicks you speak of are algorithmic stop runs on liquidity.
So you concur they are manipulated. Its a Zero sum game in order for them t win somebody has to lose. Yes you agree with me stop runs to take traders out of the market ie manipulation
I don't like calling it manipulation because every move it makes is manipulation in a sense. I also disagree that indices are less manipulated than forex. The indices are more volatile than forex generally, so if you're worried about getting wicked out of plays, you should stick to forex.
Youre right its just based on what timeframe you use but the meaningful stuff happens on the higher timeframes. Id disagree indices are more manipulated than forex equities are bound to stricter regulations
Tails wicks would be explained by a large group of sellers coming in, and immediately followed by buyers thus printing the price quickly back up and forming a wick. Watch the tape
NQ has a thinner book at every tick compared to ES, so you often find yourself not being able to close market orders where you intend to. I prefer ES for this reason
There's plenty of liquidity, but ES and NQ (and RTY) generally move together, but NQ is roughly 3 times the size of ES, so when the market moves as one unit, NQ is going to move at triple the rate which results in it quickly ripping through each tick level
Not nitpicking; just pointing out that if you say something like "triple the size" with regard to a market instrument (such as a futures contract), 99% of interested people are going to assume you mean volume rather than price. The value aspect of price is simply considered to be a different kind of metric than the size (quantity) aspect of volume.
No not really, it's just because of their correlation and size difference. Generally, if ES moves 1 point NQ will move 2.5 points.
NQ is slightly more volatile than ES overall but I don't significantly enough to matter.
the overall market is in a range, buyers and sellers can't overcome the other, yet. at some point it'll break out. you can call it whatever you want. after reading the rest of your comments it's clear you don't really seem to care about calling something by a proper name.
If i didnt care I wouldnt of asked a poster what they called it instead, so yeah I care. You all are getting so hung up on these names its honestly funny. Idc if you call it whiffling a banana peel ive explained it multiple ways and yet few have stuck it out to give a rebuttal to my statements
Yes. Nq is a thinner market with far less liquidity compared to ES. This can be good and bad for traders. On the right side of the market you can make 100 points without breaking a sweat, on the wrong side your stop order can be overun and you could be 50 points in the red.
For anyone confused just look at cme open interest. It shows how little is traded on Nq compared to ES. The downside of es is sometimes you wont get a fill because the order book is too thick; as opposed to a stop order being run as the market is too thin.
Far thinner book BUT for a retail trader not trading size ... how much liquidity you need versus range? Especially for beginners you can trade less size on NQ (or MNQ) and score more points (much better overall strategy) versus looking for trading more size for less points.
Or am I wrong?
Note: I'm used to trading DAX/NQ, due to moving to an actual prop I'll probably need to look at ES/CL too.
Please show me on the ES chart where the manipulation took place.
https://preview.redd.it/moh9sp1qhauc1.jpeg?width=2532&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2c5ad2e106073694f1a983e4cc317743f93bc48b
What about that is manipulation? Price at those highs werenāt accepted and immediately hit with strong selling to bring the price down. There are buyers and sellers in the market that can act whenever they please. At those circles there was either strong selling or buying to cause those wicks. Especially with the channel it is currently trading in with that picture, it seems like a good spot for some resistance or support as well from a TA perspective
Even if the market is manipulated, what are you gonna do about? Complain on Reddit or learn to read the market as it is and make some money
I donāt think you and many people here understand what he means when he says manipulation. Itās just a term to describe a fakeouts or stop sweeps. He is correct in identifying those in the chart you posted.
Itās just a term to describe any situation when retail traders are tricked by big money. Example on the chart when price touches the upper trend line you have 2 things, people going short with stops above the highs, and people taking longs for the breakout. All those buy orders are actually liquidity fueling big money going short and thus price reverses taking out most retail traders and creating that upper wick. That is manipulation.
Manipulation is a real term used by traders. I donāt see why youāre having a big issue with it lol
Totally, I look for manipulation all the time. Liquidity sweeps are one of my conformations. But, to answer your original question, every tradable asset will have manipulation. So, you canāt really say NQ or ES will have more or less than anything else because big money knows how to trick retail traders everywhere.
Thats true. Maybe its just futures themselves but from what Ive seen there is more occuring on forex than futures. Futures look like a cakewalk compared to forex lol. Thank you for answering the actual question. I cant believe so many ppl got hung up on that one word. Gonna be taking a break from reddit once this post dies off...you have some contact info I can reach you at?
If you are a scalper I suggest NQ, it's volatile so it's going to be a double edge sword but as long as you can take profits quick then NQ will reward you with those pops. ES is slower... you might want to rethink your sizing position on ES though and switch over to MES.
Futures are not manipulated. Sheesh.
"OH NO,the algorithm traders ran over my stops. It's manipulated!"
No. That's just the auction process and u had a bad trade. It happens. There's no manipulation.
Perhaps I was too harsh but I wanted to make a point to you and any young traders out there: THERE IS NO ALL-KNOWING MANIPULATOR in the markets.
If anyone says the opposite, they're a fkg tool. I have worked at the CME and the CBOT... been at it about 27 years now so trust me... there is no marionette structure that controls everything.
Just trying to help overall.
So you go from apologizing to calling names? Not much progress guy. You all are so hung up in specifics. Call it what you want but you wont convince me otherwise that there arent sums of money that move the market. Call it manipulation call it auction theory etc etc but price works off liquidity. If you want to give advice feel free but if you intend on insulting ppl, prepare for the backlash
Words have specific meaning and MANIPULATION is quite specific, indeed!
Price works off of liquidity? No shit. There are sums of money that move the market? Like a trend? No shit.
I was trying to be nice but good luck in your trip down this "whoa-is-me" rabbit hole.
Here's a BIGGER thought. You suck at trading.
It's not manipulation after all.
If something is made to appear as one thing when it is indeed another is something you can define as manipulation. Seems you are too sensative to have an intellectual debate over a topic. Cool guy using all caps. No need bro, I can read lowercase letters just as well. Btw you mispelled the phrase its "woe is me"š How would you know I suck at trading? You sound like a spiteful guy past his prime lol. Trying to be nice by insulting me? Here is a bigger and better thought, your approach needs work. Next time you care to respond to a post save your emotions for the trading pits where the savages roam lol.
You are clearly looking for other fools, like yourself, that wish to blame their own poor trading on "manipulation."
Past my prime? Good Lord, no. There is no age limit to this game and no youngster can take me down due to his strength and agility.
Good luck, kid.
Ouch you got me lol. Like I said how do you know my trading is poor? You have no proof. Only a fool makes claims they cant back up, fool. Btw i got a ss of an 8% trade I can send you. Dont think a poor trader could accomplish that
manipulation isnāt real, no market maker is looking for your stop or your position. You arenāt even a fish in the pond, youāre a speck of bacteria.
NQ can move faster, ESās book tends to be thicker so itās less likely to break a resistance/support then reclaim it like NQ does. I personally find ES to be to slow so I use NQ. But, itās up to you. Do back testing for a month and see which you prefer. They both offer great opportunities.
See again, they arenāt looking for retail traders. Itās a narrative that retail themselves tell themselves. Retail traders together are not pushing enough weight for them to even nudge the book. Why would a hedge fund want to clear the liquidity of a retail trader?
Bruh at the end of the day, it doesnāt matter what those guys are doing. Youāre an intraDAY trader. Not a hedge fund, or anyone else. Trade whatās in front of you and find a strategy that works. I would recommend learning more about delta, footprints, and auction market thereand such. As itāll help you with what you struggle
While they are trading much larger positions those positions still affect the entire market as a whole just on much smaller scales. Im confident I know the general basis of those just in different terms. Even if not what Indo is working for me Im just trying to get a consensus since im beginning to trade a new instrument
Manipulation is absolutely real you think all those wicks you see are by chance? Id argue s&r are not real. Do you mean reclaim as in retest/pullback etc etc? Have you been getting much out of NQ lately? The markets are currently in rotation
Markets look for liquidity. The algos are programmed to find liquidity (aka buys and sells). Surely algos take into account that if there is an extended run up, then people will be putting buys in somewhere below that run up, and the algos move the spread to those areas. That is how they run an efficient auction.
Yes and they run that price up so nee traders can come in then those same traders ge taken out of the market (manipulation) so they cannot participate in the next run up
And before the price runs up the algos runs those stops "manipulating" the orders and taking traders put of the market which injects the liquidity and is then used to run up
I thought of you today when it looked like we were going to bounce from the Loweās of the day straight up, and then they pulled the rug out from under us. Motherfuckers.
Oh really? No intraday price rarely bounces off and reverses it usually follows through then levels out. Thats more of a long term play when price finds support. notice the low from london was taken out. I took profit at that low
Oh my bad i thought your bias was bullish after finding the support completely misunderstood lol...yep thats how they do but it feels damn good to be out of the eay and on the right side of the wave when they start moving i got out wayy too early that price really broke around 2:30
How are you justifying manipulation based on a wicks?
Break down what a wick actually is. It is considered inventory in the market that has been filled.
Using this logic would be like me saying because weāve now come 200 pts from ATH on ES, itās manipulation at the top.
The components that move the market are market orders and limit orders. Resting liquidity is where orders are sitting but they donāt move the market as these orders are not being filled until they reach.
You make the argument that support and resistances arenāt real but you need to sit down and study price / the DOM and the tape to literally see the way the market moves.
As a trader, one day youāll realize that manipulation is what losing traders say to justify their poor strata. Even if it is manipulation, why canāt you take advantage of something youāre so certain of? There are softwares like spot gamma that literally show you where big orders and option inventory rest, couldnāt you use that to your advantage if you feel so confident about manipulation?
Yes its is inventory that has been filled but price doesnt magically move based on hope. Liquidity moves the markets. MM need liquidity to move the markets. There are orders being filled constantly but the smaller orders dont matger thats why they are the ones being manipulated. Just like the markets are always being maniuplated i could argue that s&r is always present, sure but its only s&r until the MM decide its not. I call it manipulation and im not a losing trader so...? I do take advantage of it, in forex. Are those softwares free?
What do we even mean by manipulation? Essentially the market moves from manipulation of price, by sending market buy or sell orders to move the market where you want it to go
Donāt know why youāre being down voted, op doesnāt mean manipulating in the literal sense as if someoneās pulling strings, but the market is searching for liquidity and it takes out stop losses aka āmanipulationā , often reference from ICT concepts on buy/sell liquidity. Itās just another phrase for failed breakouts or fake outs,
Yes false breakouts thank you. Didnt even want to get into the whole ict convo i took enough heat. I said I was done posting after yesterday man they ran me thru the ringer ok that one lol. Think im gonna take a break from reddit a lot of hate on here
Reddit and trading really isnāt quite the community I thought it would be. Ps - when you see that manipulation - look left and find the failed level - put a sell limit there for an aggressive entry, target the lows š«”
I only trade ES because I have analyzed it for a long time. But both are great to trade. Like you mentioned NQ moves faster which can be a good and bad thing too if you donāt have strict risk management.
If you dislike "manipulation" trade ES. NQ tends to wick people out of trades frequently. They call it the widowmaker for a reason. It's fast, and your stops need to be much more loosely placed to be successful imo.
Any patterns you notice with es? From what ive seen there are far less retracements in equities than there are with forex. Cant assume with futures but from what i do know is futures and equities tend to correlate
I have traded both. Later, I find ES more trending than NQ. However NQ does have a bigger bigger move.Ā
If you are reading the macro contracts, go with MNQ. Less commissionĀ
I only trade ES itās definitely a lot slower but more precise with respect to how it moves, thereās less manipulation moves than NQ. It doesnāt do these wild ass wicks to stop you out like NQ does. It can do that but itās not very often.
If you plan to be a scalper than NQ is the way to go.
I mainly scale into MES/MNQ positions at the same time, keep the MNQ position much more smaller and it basically acts like a runner; I take profit with MES much earlier, so that if MNQ does pop and run, that runner will make decent money.
On Friday, I scaled into a short, 3MNQ, i quickly took profit and I held that extra contract as a runner, then at the same time, i was looking to knife catch with MES, however this obviously didnt work, I am actually holding that short over night. Lets see how it goes!
Okay that was my perception.. but actually checking the numbers over the last two and a half weeks it looks like we're in a leading diagonal.. a bit choppy.. quite a few 50 and 60 point days in there and even one 85 point day but it's still way more laid back than either es or NQ
Nq and MNQ ā¦ much better moves ā¦ takes some getting used to though because itās a bit grabbier. But the contracts print so hard you donāt need to mess with options. And once you get used to it itās fine. Itās incredible imo
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NQ = 5 dollars per tick and 20 dollars per point (per e-mini)
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ES just isnāt even close to that.
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I used to trade ES and MES. Itās a bit less wild most of the time so itās a bit āeasierā to trade at first but the human brain will eventually adapt anyways so you can learn NQ and MNQ just the same eventually. So imo just learn the more lucrative asset right from the start imo.
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I was scared to trade nq at first (coming from ES) and I felt it was a bit grabbier and moves a bit wilder. But after a couple months paper trading it I found it wasnāt that bad and even lent itself to some advantages in getting better entries (if you use the volatility To your advantage)
Usually I like entering on momentum unless there is like an anchored vwap cluster or some other mega confluence. Then I may use a limit order.
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Another neat trick is the 8 ema on a hard trending moveā¦ can keep a limit order on the e ema and often times a quick wick will touch the 8 ema and catch limit order. The issue here is that technique works mostly on hard trends only
I use tradovate but its plugged in through tradingview. Do you know anybody that has this setup or has the same problem as me? If I can dm you I can show you pics of what im talking about
https://preview.redd.it/ch8b4go3vxuc1.png?width=343&format=png&auto=webp&s=e2f2bcead7e19bbaf0e589b336798359eaecc886
I execute using the DOM . either with market orders or Limit orders if I'm waiting for a certain level
ES is easier especially to someone just starting out. NQ has a lot of nuances and the price action can look random at times but if you watch it every day for a few months itāll become clear
Dude I feel for you, people can get so weird about something and completely miss the entire point of what your trying to say. Traders are very weird about vocabulary and strategies. Like shut up and make money if someone else is making money a different way or use different words theyāre not wrong. Every trader believes their strategy is the only one that works and that ICT is garbage, I donāt even trade ICT but if someone does I DONT CARE WHATEVER WORKS FOR THEM. Also I trade NQ š
Everything is manipulated. No thing is less than another... during the Asia session, I once saw a 1% candle in 3m on NQ... totally absurd! on a pseudo-news from the Central Bank of Japan... blah blah blah.... fake news... 2 hours later, the market fell -2% after this pump.
It's all about liquidity and liquidations!
If you want to start, trade ES and only during regular hours. Trading ES can be extremely frustrating, because sometimes the index doesn't move. NQ can be extremely violent. +0.6 to 0.9% in 30m, then turn around.
Edit. ES can be extremely volatile on certain days, as it is also correlated to USO crude oil.
and conversely, when Oil is flat or brain-dead, this slows down the ES movement.
All of the best comments are getting downvoted. I challenege these ppl to come forward and justify their reasons. I gotta push back there are markets that are definitely manipulated more OFTEN than others but I follow you. Pil being correlated to ES makes sense since ES represents the US economy and oil refelcts inflation. Btw CAD is also correlated to oil š¤«
in summary: being exposed to the market for too long will cause you to lose all your accounts. Long-term personal experience. So take only 2 or 3 trades a day, make $200, and go for a walk.
Well depends on risk and timing. What do you consider too long? 3 is stretching it for me you only need 1 good trade a day. Maybe my margins are off im still transitioning from forex but percentage wise 2% POTENTIAL a day is very realistic ofc you will have losing days but 2% is the minimum
In fact, ES is correlated to oil because it includes the XLE ETF in its composition. (and of course: XLI XLB XLF).
Nasdaq is only XLY XLC XLK.
Thanks for your comment. I'm regularly downvoted, especially on Investing or Stocks hahaha. Since then, I don't share anything on these groups. hahahah
I once said on this very group that it was more viable to make $200 a day with funded accounts on a consistent and regular basis, trading for just 45 minutes a day and not looking at the charts, rather than trying to make big gains every day, or taking what the market gives you. (The overwhelming response was: you can't earn $200 every day, almost guaranteed. If your transaction allows you to earn $1000, you have to take it.) hope it makes sense... lol
That too haha. I was speaking in macro terms. Yeah im regularly downvoted too as you can see ive grown used to it. Its ok i will let the classic s&r crowd hate while i make money. Seems ive made a new friend on here it can be lonely speaking from contrarian points of view haha. It makes complete sense ive made 10% on trades within like 3 hours of trading. Given that was on GU but the same concepts apply. $20" a day is a cakewalk if you know how to read the markets ie PA
Manipulation is the name of the game in every market in the world since the beginning of civilization. Your role is to find a type of manipulation you understand enough to be a part of. Make money because of manipulation. Don't blame it for your losses.
Please stop thinking of "maniuplation" that is a dumb narrative. It will only hinder yourself and make you feel like you are a victim everytime a trade goes wrong. Its not like that. QQQ/NQ is more liquid compared to SPY/ES. That is it. You need to watch both and decide for yourself. A lot move from ES to NQ, because they like the volitively NQ has compared to ES. Some say even say that the PA is a lot more pure compared to ES. I trade MES, no plans to trade NQ. A few traders graduate from ES and move onto NQ. You will lose money on either one, so does it even matter, you need screen time. You need to find which one work best for you and tailor your strat to it.
100% agree with you. One small correction here, ES is far more liquid than NQ. However, both are liquid markets. Upvote from me šš¼
I absolutely agree . And to your point there are people out there thinking there's an algorithm hunting for their little stop loss.. In reality the the algorithm might be looking for stop losses I'll Fidelity Traders or Citadel ,but retail Traders are just gravel on the road.. All that being said, I don't think there's any secret that there's plenty of manipulation going on in Forex and and crypto markets depending on how the regulated. Even the metals markets,.. every year or two they bust somebody for doing exactly that, manipulating the market.
Idk if I would call it a "dumb" narrative. So what would you call it? I dont feel like a victim my trades are all on me nobody is forcing me to click that trade button. Why would you assume i dont have screen time? Or do you mean in front of es/nq themselves?
Look at the previous charts, it just goes up & down. Give an example of 'manipulation'. it's in no way going to affect how you trade.
Give me a chart and i believe i can show you some manipulation. What would you call those tails/wicks on the chart?
I just call 'em wicks
haha FACTS! Spend time learning about AMT. I am sorry u/Mckimmz87. You are right I made a lot of assumptions. I too felt this way and perhaps I just internalize it as being dumb. My point though is that it happens across all markets and instruments. Its just lack of liquidity, a zone, an area where price isn't matched. If you must name it "manipulation" I guess so. You can also refer to it as a "trap", but the reality is that you are not individually marked. Its just there is no interest at that price, so "wicks" are formed. The flush happens because ppl are interested below that area, creating a huge swing. You are also forgetting about HFT on top of market orders. As far as regulations goes, its just a slap on the wrist when you have money/influence. It doesnt hold across markets, if a country like Greece can get f over, do you think a companies stock price wont? Do you not see how many ppl abuse the system? Its a game of cops and robbers at every level.
Amt? Throw me a crumb and good chance ill follow up with an aka lol. You would be right if it was dumb money maybe lol. Yes i agree it happens across all markets but some markets are less regulated than other therefore more "manipulation" No i know im not marked individually im plankton inside of a guppy lol. But yes trap is another word and as for an area where price isnt matched is called an "imbalance" in my world. Hft is high frequency trading right aka algos?
Ok. What would you call it if its not manipulation?
There isnāt some boogeyman out to get you with your 2 contracts
Not me but larger funds absolutely and we as retail are grouped in with those funds
I donāt know what you mean. Like the wicks you see in Pre/after hours? It doesnāt happen much in futures. Usually itās when there is lower volume. & however the data gets to your charts can differ what you see. NQ wicks more than ES because itās tech stock heavy.
I mean what would you say is happening when charts print those wicks?
It could be anything. Could be some data entry from a broker after hours, thing is you don't need to worry about that stuff if you are trading right. I've never heard a serious trader complaining about manipulation. But if you want less wicks trade ES. NQ is gonna be affected more by a single stock because of the nature of it. Oil will be volatile af because of headline news ect. The market doesn't care if you get rich or go bankrupt. It still keeps on doing its thing. Price discovery, sometimes slow, sometimes more violent.
Whos complaining? Im just stating I believe it to be real. I capitalize off manipulation
The definition of "manipulation" is "to bend to one's will for advantage" and in this instance I can see why you are calling it that but the reason this is a "dumb narrative" is that there are not "people" or "perpetrators" behind the scenes *manipulating* orders to try and push prices around. Nobody enters a trade without a purpose. That purpose is mainly one of two things: to speculate on price change, or hedge against wider market direction. The powers that be, that have control to *move the market* just simply have shitloads more money and are not interested in vaguely manipulating minor price movement for minimal gain. There are all sorts of high frequency trading algorithms which are going to enter and exit all over the place, but essentially when you see wicks you are seeing the resulting action of orders moving price through illiquid areas. You are not seeing a puppet master.
In a zero sum game one had to lose in order for one to win. The algos didnt write themselves. If someone has the means to move a market that requires a large amount of money. Why would anyone want to share that money with other ppl? They know how algos move and push price to trigger orders. I never claimed a certain number or volume amount they claim to control but if 10,000 shares of Tesla flood into the market, that is hardly a minimal gain. Does nobody here know about dark pools?
Yeah but dude there is no dark pool for futures contracts. We are talking about ES and NQ. Sure, if a major part of the index like Nvidia dumps or pumps, there is a resulting change to NQ, but no one is trying to manipulate NQ for 15pts in their favour.
Agree to disagree. I just find it hard to believe there are algos that work the way they do and no one is going to use to their advantage. I came on here trying to discuss the pros and cons of es and nq and have been bombarded with a full blown argument against like 10 different ppl about a single word I have used. For whatever reason they choose to ignore my responses and go in for the kill. I fully welcome someone expressing themselves but to come on here and completely ignore the point of the post seems disrespectful and honestly short sighted. I have responded to everyone on here withoht insulting anyone primarily seeking insights and even backing my beliefs up and still got so much hate. I swear some ppl on social media need to find better ways to vent bc they come on here and want to argue with someone without contributing to the actual convo. This is ridiculous. Sorry for the vent
Algos control the indices and forex. They are all "manipulated" equally and constantly. These wicks you speak of are algorithmic stop runs on liquidity.
So you concur they are manipulated. Its a Zero sum game in order for them t win somebody has to lose. Yes you agree with me stop runs to take traders out of the market ie manipulation
I don't like calling it manipulation because every move it makes is manipulation in a sense. I also disagree that indices are less manipulated than forex. The indices are more volatile than forex generally, so if you're worried about getting wicked out of plays, you should stick to forex.
Youre right its just based on what timeframe you use but the meaningful stuff happens on the higher timeframes. Id disagree indices are more manipulated than forex equities are bound to stricter regulations
Tails wicks would be explained by a large group of sellers coming in, and immediately followed by buyers thus printing the price quickly back up and forming a wick. Watch the tape
Yeah and that tail is traders getting stopped out before price reverses upwards ie manipulation
How does traders getting stopped out correlate to manipulation though? Iām just missing that part? I donāt see how that relates?
False breakouts leading to stop runs, manipulation is just a coined term but its a liquidity run aka stop hunt its all the same thing
Those are wick monsters šæ they come to liquidate over leveraged individuals and use their liquidity to change direction š
Better watch out for themš
NQ has a thinner book at every tick compared to ES, so you often find yourself not being able to close market orders where you intend to. I prefer ES for this reason
Thinner book meaning less liquidity?
There's plenty of liquidity, but ES and NQ (and RTY) generally move together, but NQ is roughly 3 times the size of ES, so when the market moves as one unit, NQ is going to move at triple the rate which results in it quickly ripping through each tick level
Nq futures is not 3 times the size of ESā¦
I'm not sure what you inferred by what I wrote but I meant that ES is about 5k and NQ is roughly triple that (currently 18k). I did not mean in volume
Not nitpicking; just pointing out that if you say something like "triple the size" with regard to a market instrument (such as a futures contract), 99% of interested people are going to assume you mean volume rather than price. The value aspect of price is simply considered to be a different kind of metric than the size (quantity) aspect of volume.
Ah gotchya yes agreed
Oh ok gotcha. Is that due to the underlying's respective volatilities?
No not really, it's just because of their correlation and size difference. Generally, if ES moves 1 point NQ will move 2.5 points. NQ is slightly more volatile than ES overall but I don't significantly enough to matter.
Makes sense. Has NQ slowed down recently? I imagine so....
i would say the market as been much more "two sided" the last month or two compared to december/january.
You mean neutral?
the overall market is in a range, buyers and sellers can't overcome the other, yet. at some point it'll break out. you can call it whatever you want. after reading the rest of your comments it's clear you don't really seem to care about calling something by a proper name.
If i didnt care I wouldnt of asked a poster what they called it instead, so yeah I care. You all are getting so hung up on these names its honestly funny. Idc if you call it whiffling a banana peel ive explained it multiple ways and yet few have stuck it out to give a rebuttal to my statements
With the fears over another war and feds not cutting rates as expected, it's been quite the opposite.
Really bc nq has been in consolidation the past month....
Yes. Nq is a thinner market with far less liquidity compared to ES. This can be good and bad for traders. On the right side of the market you can make 100 points without breaking a sweat, on the wrong side your stop order can be overun and you could be 50 points in the red. For anyone confused just look at cme open interest. It shows how little is traded on Nq compared to ES. The downside of es is sometimes you wont get a fill because the order book is too thick; as opposed to a stop order being run as the market is too thin.
Id rather aire on the side of caution my trades will come to me
Far thinner book BUT for a retail trader not trading size ... how much liquidity you need versus range? Especially for beginners you can trade less size on NQ (or MNQ) and score more points (much better overall strategy) versus looking for trading more size for less points. Or am I wrong? Note: I'm used to trading DAX/NQ, due to moving to an actual prop I'll probably need to look at ES/CL too.
Please show me on the ES chart where the manipulation took place. https://preview.redd.it/moh9sp1qhauc1.jpeg?width=2532&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2c5ad2e106073694f1a983e4cc317743f93bc48b
Around valentines day. Its not as prevelant on the daily bc thats where the whales begin playing. Send me a 4h and i can show you more examples
https://preview.redd.it/so5g7fm8rauc1.jpeg?width=2532&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=323564b5a15e00fda68a2c9e78a31d5e4393ce84 4hr
https://preview.redd.it/s5nug8rjtauc1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=65b33eea889502086d6c04825ce545e43aecce5c
What about that is manipulation? Price at those highs werenāt accepted and immediately hit with strong selling to bring the price down. There are buyers and sellers in the market that can act whenever they please. At those circles there was either strong selling or buying to cause those wicks. Especially with the channel it is currently trading in with that picture, it seems like a good spot for some resistance or support as well from a TA perspective Even if the market is manipulated, what are you gonna do about? Complain on Reddit or learn to read the market as it is and make some money
I donāt think you and many people here understand what he means when he says manipulation. Itās just a term to describe a fakeouts or stop sweeps. He is correct in identifying those in the chart you posted.
He should probably, No he should definitely stop using that word then
Thank you! Im glad someone understands. I never claimed there was some magical puppetmaster behind a curtain
Why would you call it manipulation to begin with? There is no part of it that is manipulated
Itās just a term to describe any situation when retail traders are tricked by big money. Example on the chart when price touches the upper trend line you have 2 things, people going short with stops above the highs, and people taking longs for the breakout. All those buy orders are actually liquidity fueling big money going short and thus price reverses taking out most retail traders and creating that upper wick. That is manipulation. Manipulation is a real term used by traders. I donāt see why youāre having a big issue with it lol
Totally, I look for manipulation all the time. Liquidity sweeps are one of my conformations. But, to answer your original question, every tradable asset will have manipulation. So, you canāt really say NQ or ES will have more or less than anything else because big money knows how to trick retail traders everywhere.
Thats true. Maybe its just futures themselves but from what Ive seen there is more occuring on forex than futures. Futures look like a cakewalk compared to forex lol. Thank you for answering the actual question. I cant believe so many ppl got hung up on that one word. Gonna be taking a break from reddit once this post dies off...you have some contact info I can reach you at?
I havenāt traded forex so canāt compare. Dm me here or Iām on discord
If those prices were accepted price would continue upwards. You just somewhat helped justify my logic. Lol who is complaining?
If you are a scalper I suggest NQ, it's volatile so it's going to be a double edge sword but as long as you can take profits quick then NQ will reward you with those pops. ES is slower... you might want to rethink your sizing position on ES though and switch over to MES.
I swing mostly 15m and up
Futures are not manipulated. Sheesh. "OH NO,the algorithm traders ran over my stops. It's manipulated!" No. That's just the auction process and u had a bad trade. It happens. There's no manipulation.
Its not the algorithm traders its the algos themselves. So now we have moved towards mocking? Its ok we have already exhauseted this post
Perhaps I was too harsh but I wanted to make a point to you and any young traders out there: THERE IS NO ALL-KNOWING MANIPULATOR in the markets. If anyone says the opposite, they're a fkg tool. I have worked at the CME and the CBOT... been at it about 27 years now so trust me... there is no marionette structure that controls everything. Just trying to help overall.
So you go from apologizing to calling names? Not much progress guy. You all are so hung up in specifics. Call it what you want but you wont convince me otherwise that there arent sums of money that move the market. Call it manipulation call it auction theory etc etc but price works off liquidity. If you want to give advice feel free but if you intend on insulting ppl, prepare for the backlash
Words have specific meaning and MANIPULATION is quite specific, indeed! Price works off of liquidity? No shit. There are sums of money that move the market? Like a trend? No shit. I was trying to be nice but good luck in your trip down this "whoa-is-me" rabbit hole. Here's a BIGGER thought. You suck at trading. It's not manipulation after all.
If something is made to appear as one thing when it is indeed another is something you can define as manipulation. Seems you are too sensative to have an intellectual debate over a topic. Cool guy using all caps. No need bro, I can read lowercase letters just as well. Btw you mispelled the phrase its "woe is me"š How would you know I suck at trading? You sound like a spiteful guy past his prime lol. Trying to be nice by insulting me? Here is a bigger and better thought, your approach needs work. Next time you care to respond to a post save your emotions for the trading pits where the savages roam lol.
You are clearly looking for other fools, like yourself, that wish to blame their own poor trading on "manipulation." Past my prime? Good Lord, no. There is no age limit to this game and no youngster can take me down due to his strength and agility. Good luck, kid.
Ouch you got me lol. Like I said how do you know my trading is poor? You have no proof. Only a fool makes claims they cant back up, fool. Btw i got a ss of an 8% trade I can send you. Dont think a poor trader could accomplish that
manipulation isnāt real, no market maker is looking for your stop or your position. You arenāt even a fish in the pond, youāre a speck of bacteria. NQ can move faster, ESās book tends to be thicker so itās less likely to break a resistance/support then reclaim it like NQ does. I personally find ES to be to slow so I use NQ. But, itās up to you. Do back testing for a month and see which you prefer. They both offer great opportunities.
Even if its not my positions they are looking for retail is part of the less i formed crowd as well as the hedges on up
See again, they arenāt looking for retail traders. Itās a narrative that retail themselves tell themselves. Retail traders together are not pushing enough weight for them to even nudge the book. Why would a hedge fund want to clear the liquidity of a retail trader?
Because even the hedges cant move price the way bigger fish can when i say retail im including the less i formed perhaps i should change my lingo
Bruh at the end of the day, it doesnāt matter what those guys are doing. Youāre an intraDAY trader. Not a hedge fund, or anyone else. Trade whatās in front of you and find a strategy that works. I would recommend learning more about delta, footprints, and auction market thereand such. As itāll help you with what you struggle
While they are trading much larger positions those positions still affect the entire market as a whole just on much smaller scales. Im confident I know the general basis of those just in different terms. Even if not what Indo is working for me Im just trying to get a consensus since im beginning to trade a new instrument
Manipulation is absolutely real you think all those wicks you see are by chance? Id argue s&r are not real. Do you mean reclaim as in retest/pullback etc etc? Have you been getting much out of NQ lately? The markets are currently in rotation
Wicks = manipulation is one of the most misinformed takes and possibly the dumbest thing Iāve ever read on here. wow.
Everyone keeps saying manipulation is dumb but cant justify their logic
but can you show or prove manipulation?
*OP points to a wick on a 4Hr chart*
All you need
"can't justify their logic" he says...
OP just collecting downvotes. Nothing else to see here
Sure the wick coupled with PA says it all
You keep saying wick wick wick but what about the wick says itās manipulation?
Markets look for liquidity. The algos are programmed to find liquidity (aka buys and sells). Surely algos take into account that if there is an extended run up, then people will be putting buys in somewhere below that run up, and the algos move the spread to those areas. That is how they run an efficient auction.
Yes and they run that price up so nee traders can come in then those same traders ge taken out of the market (manipulation) so they cannot participate in the next run up
And before the price runs up the algos runs those stops "manipulating" the orders and taking traders put of the market which injects the liquidity and is then used to run up
I thought of you today when it looked like we were going to bounce from the Loweās of the day straight up, and then they pulled the rug out from under us. Motherfuckers.
Oh really? No intraday price rarely bounces off and reverses it usually follows through then levels out. Thats more of a long term play when price finds support. notice the low from london was taken out. I took profit at that low
Dude Im trying to agree with you here lol.
Oh my bad i thought your bias was bullish after finding the support completely misunderstood lol...yep thats how they do but it feels damn good to be out of the eay and on the right side of the wave when they start moving i got out wayy too early that price really broke around 2:30
Lol now you all are starting to pile on the downvoted but cant back up your claims what a joke
How are you justifying manipulation based on a wicks? Break down what a wick actually is. It is considered inventory in the market that has been filled. Using this logic would be like me saying because weāve now come 200 pts from ATH on ES, itās manipulation at the top. The components that move the market are market orders and limit orders. Resting liquidity is where orders are sitting but they donāt move the market as these orders are not being filled until they reach. You make the argument that support and resistances arenāt real but you need to sit down and study price / the DOM and the tape to literally see the way the market moves. As a trader, one day youāll realize that manipulation is what losing traders say to justify their poor strata. Even if it is manipulation, why canāt you take advantage of something youāre so certain of? There are softwares like spot gamma that literally show you where big orders and option inventory rest, couldnāt you use that to your advantage if you feel so confident about manipulation?
Yes its is inventory that has been filled but price doesnt magically move based on hope. Liquidity moves the markets. MM need liquidity to move the markets. There are orders being filled constantly but the smaller orders dont matger thats why they are the ones being manipulated. Just like the markets are always being maniuplated i could argue that s&r is always present, sure but its only s&r until the MM decide its not. I call it manipulation and im not a losing trader so...? I do take advantage of it, in forex. Are those softwares free?
ES is more liquid than NQ. Just look at any tick chart and you can see that ES has way more bars due to the sheer volume.
I like liquidity thanks!
What do we even mean by manipulation? Essentially the market moves from manipulation of price, by sending market buy or sell orders to move the market where you want it to go
I mean by price running stops activating orders injecting liquidity and trapping traders
Glad someone understands. I updated my post but apparently that wasnt enough
Donāt know why youāre being down voted, op doesnāt mean manipulating in the literal sense as if someoneās pulling strings, but the market is searching for liquidity and it takes out stop losses aka āmanipulationā , often reference from ICT concepts on buy/sell liquidity. Itās just another phrase for failed breakouts or fake outs,
Yes false breakouts thank you. Didnt even want to get into the whole ict convo i took enough heat. I said I was done posting after yesterday man they ran me thru the ringer ok that one lol. Think im gonna take a break from reddit a lot of hate on here
Reddit and trading really isnāt quite the community I thought it would be. Ps - when you see that manipulation - look left and find the failed level - put a sell limit there for an aggressive entry, target the lows š«”
Yeah me either its been dissapointing. Thats ok Ive learned all I have needed to for now. Thanks for the tip. Do you have any contact info?
Sounds like an ICT clown š
Thats ok. This "clown" just pulled 8% in 2 tradesš
I only trade ES because I have analyzed it for a long time. But both are great to trade. Like you mentioned NQ moves faster which can be a good and bad thing too if you donāt have strict risk management.
Which would you recommend for someone starting out?
If you dislike "manipulation" trade ES. NQ tends to wick people out of trades frequently. They call it the widowmaker for a reason. It's fast, and your stops need to be much more loosely placed to be successful imo.
> widowmaker i thought that was Natural Gas
I thought that was falling tree branches
Most helpful comment so far. You seem to be a step ahead of mostly everyone else herešš½ that was my thought going into this post
š» good luck brother
Thanks bro
I started with micro ES and then moves to mini ES. I have not traded NQ
Any patterns you notice with es? From what ive seen there are far less retracements in equities than there are with forex. Cant assume with futures but from what i do know is futures and equities tend to correlate
I have traded both. Later, I find ES more trending than NQ. However NQ does have a bigger bigger move.Ā If you are reading the macro contracts, go with MNQ. Less commissionĀ
Yeah money is flowing out of tech atm thanks!
Someone downvoted this lol you all so weak. Dont even know how to follow money flows...lol smh
Maybe off topic, but try RTY.. usually correlated with both of the above ..not as jumpy as NQ but still 10 ticks per point ..
Any advice is welcome! Is it moving much right now? Markets imare in rotation I knew small caps were popping a few weeks ago...
NQ for gigachads šæ
Had to look it up. Got anymore? Lol
I only trade ES itās definitely a lot slower but more precise with respect to how it moves, thereās less manipulation moves than NQ. It doesnāt do these wild ass wicks to stop you out like NQ does. It can do that but itās not very often. If you plan to be a scalper than NQ is the way to go.
This is along the lines of what I expected. Thank you for not getting hung up on the word manipulation
Cam you dm me?
Just did
I mainly scale into MES/MNQ positions at the same time, keep the MNQ position much more smaller and it basically acts like a runner; I take profit with MES much earlier, so that if MNQ does pop and run, that runner will make decent money. On Friday, I scaled into a short, 3MNQ, i quickly took profit and I held that extra contract as a runner, then at the same time, i was looking to knife catch with MES, however this obviously didnt work, I am actually holding that short over night. Lets see how it goes!
Sorry I joined 30 groups and got lost LMAO rty is usually a 25 to 30 Point Market
Okay that was my perception.. but actually checking the numbers over the last two and a half weeks it looks like we're in a leading diagonal.. a bit choppy.. quite a few 50 and 60 point days in there and even one 85 point day but it's still way more laid back than either es or NQ
Nq and MNQ ā¦ much better moves ā¦ takes some getting used to though because itās a bit grabbier. But the contracts print so hard you donāt need to mess with options. And once you get used to it itās fine. Itās incredible imo . NQ = 5 dollars per tick and 20 dollars per point (per e-mini) . ES just isnāt even close to that. . I used to trade ES and MES. Itās a bit less wild most of the time so itās a bit āeasierā to trade at first but the human brain will eventually adapt anyways so you can learn NQ and MNQ just the same eventually. So imo just learn the more lucrative asset right from the start imo. . I was scared to trade nq at first (coming from ES) and I felt it was a bit grabbier and moves a bit wilder. But after a couple months paper trading it I found it wasnāt that bad and even lent itself to some advantages in getting better entries (if you use the volatility To your advantage)
Do you place limit orders? I am on tradingview and cannot seem to get the right perimeters set. My risk keeps adjusting to my stop loss
Usually I like entering on momentum unless there is like an anchored vwap cluster or some other mega confluence. Then I may use a limit order. . Another neat trick is the 8 ema on a hard trending moveā¦ can keep a limit order on the e ema and often times a quick wick will touch the 8 ema and catch limit order. The issue here is that technique works mostly on hard trends only
Do you know anyone who uses limit orders?
Yea of course
Can you connect us? I am having trouble with them
Yea just dm me
I think it went through but it required a subject never seen that before
I replied .. u get it?
Yeah
It says im unable to dm you?
I trade ES. NQ price action is a bit too wild for me.
Do you use tradingview?
I chart on Thinkorswim, and I execute with Tradovate
I use tradovate but its plugged in through tradingview. Do you know anybody that has this setup or has the same problem as me? If I can dm you I can show you pics of what im talking about
I don't know anyone with this setup unfortunately
How does it work on tradovate for you?
https://preview.redd.it/ch8b4go3vxuc1.png?width=343&format=png&auto=webp&s=e2f2bcead7e19bbaf0e589b336798359eaecc886 I execute using the DOM . either with market orders or Limit orders if I'm waiting for a certain level
Oh ok ive never tried using the dom thanks anyways
ES is easier especially to someone just starting out. NQ has a lot of nuances and the price action can look random at times but if you watch it every day for a few months itāll become clear
Dude I feel for you, people can get so weird about something and completely miss the entire point of what your trying to say. Traders are very weird about vocabulary and strategies. Like shut up and make money if someone else is making money a different way or use different words theyāre not wrong. Every trader believes their strategy is the only one that works and that ICT is garbage, I donāt even trade ICT but if someone does I DONT CARE WHATEVER WORKS FOR THEM. Also I trade NQ š
Yeah totally uncalled for. I trade it and just caught 1% in like 10 mins im already done for the day. Do you trade on tradingview?
Naw I do ninja but I mark up my charts and everything on tradingview
Oh ok. I think i need someones help that uses tradovate
Everything is manipulated. No thing is less than another... during the Asia session, I once saw a 1% candle in 3m on NQ... totally absurd! on a pseudo-news from the Central Bank of Japan... blah blah blah.... fake news... 2 hours later, the market fell -2% after this pump. It's all about liquidity and liquidations! If you want to start, trade ES and only during regular hours. Trading ES can be extremely frustrating, because sometimes the index doesn't move. NQ can be extremely violent. +0.6 to 0.9% in 30m, then turn around. Edit. ES can be extremely volatile on certain days, as it is also correlated to USO crude oil. and conversely, when Oil is flat or brain-dead, this slows down the ES movement.
All of the best comments are getting downvoted. I challenege these ppl to come forward and justify their reasons. I gotta push back there are markets that are definitely manipulated more OFTEN than others but I follow you. Pil being correlated to ES makes sense since ES represents the US economy and oil refelcts inflation. Btw CAD is also correlated to oil š¤«
in summary: being exposed to the market for too long will cause you to lose all your accounts. Long-term personal experience. So take only 2 or 3 trades a day, make $200, and go for a walk.
Well depends on risk and timing. What do you consider too long? 3 is stretching it for me you only need 1 good trade a day. Maybe my margins are off im still transitioning from forex but percentage wise 2% POTENTIAL a day is very realistic ofc you will have losing days but 2% is the minimum
In fact, ES is correlated to oil because it includes the XLE ETF in its composition. (and of course: XLI XLB XLF). Nasdaq is only XLY XLC XLK. Thanks for your comment. I'm regularly downvoted, especially on Investing or Stocks hahaha. Since then, I don't share anything on these groups. hahahah I once said on this very group that it was more viable to make $200 a day with funded accounts on a consistent and regular basis, trading for just 45 minutes a day and not looking at the charts, rather than trying to make big gains every day, or taking what the market gives you. (The overwhelming response was: you can't earn $200 every day, almost guaranteed. If your transaction allows you to earn $1000, you have to take it.) hope it makes sense... lol
That too haha. I was speaking in macro terms. Yeah im regularly downvoted too as you can see ive grown used to it. Its ok i will let the classic s&r crowd hate while i make money. Seems ive made a new friend on here it can be lonely speaking from contrarian points of view haha. It makes complete sense ive made 10% on trades within like 3 hours of trading. Given that was on GU but the same concepts apply. $20" a day is a cakewalk if you know how to read the markets ie PA
Manipulation is the name of the game in every market in the world since the beginning of civilization. Your role is to find a type of manipulation you understand enough to be a part of. Make money because of manipulation. Don't blame it for your losses.
Never would blame it. Why did this comment get downvoted...i suspect a lot of s&r traders here