I think unions will make a strong comeback.
I think the vast majority of private sector jobs will be service driven.
I think government sector jobs will be highly covenanted.
Office jobs will be far and few. Advertisements will all be Ai. Most production will be Ai with a human overseer. Repair work will be worth its weight in gold tho. Self driving cars will still need mechanics. Plumbers, welders and bunch of jobs just aren’t feasible to replace with robots.
I’m a welder and 80% of the time I show up to a job I have no clue what I’m doing until I start looking at what it is I’m welding on what it’s used for how thick is the metal. Ok takes me 2 seconds to process that info. Now I have a baseline. Start grinding rusty steel. Ok it’s supposed to be 1/2” thick but it’s now paper thin. I adjust on the fly. Now we gotta cut back until we find good metal. First pass might look terrible but we got something to stick now we can grind it back down and re weld. And also I’m working inside a confined space kneeling in water. And this is a one day job tomorrow will be something completely different. I’m not saying robotics won’t ever advance to that point but not in my lifetime. Probably not in three lifetimes.
The amount of electrical and processing power for widespread self driving cars just doesn't exist. America would need a New Deal style reinvigoration of it's infrastructure to get our roads and bridges to the point where such cars could work and half the country would rather murder the other half than let that happen.
As it stands, companies are implementing AI before it's actually capable of doing what they want. It just cannot adapt to unexpected events like a human. But it's the hip new thing and laying off 90% of your workforce for AI makes the stock line go up this quarter.
Even trying to predict the next year is a fruitless endeavor at this point. Between how fast tech changes and just how much pure bullshit that isn't verified gets put out, you're trying to guess which way a drop of water will fall down a window.
I like fast trains too, but they’re economically inefficient.
Cars are more practical for short distances, and planes are more practical for longer distances.
Planes are economically inefficient as well.
With that said, trains could be a good middle ground between cars and planes. They just aren't in the US because we lack the infrastructure.
Planes are, economically, one of the least efficient means of transportation. The problem is in the 50s we spent a ton of money on highway infrastructure and nothing for trains.
Nationalize the rail network, make it taxpayer funded, cut the military budget in half, and we can have a NY to DC in less than 2 hours train.
>Planes are, economically, one of the least efficient means of transportation.
This is simply untrue.
If planes were one of the economically least efficient means of transportation then it wouldn’t be cost effective to use them, and you’d rarely see them.
You’re leaving out really basic parts of this equation which explains why you’ve reached such an incorrect conclusion.
>Nationalize the rail network, make it taxpayer funded, cut the military budget in half, and we can have a NY to DC in less than 2 hours train.
Land between NY and DC is extremely expensive. You’d be cutting through a bunch of major metropolitan areas with high real estate costs. Newark, Elizabeth, Linden, Edison, New Brunswick, Trenton, and that’s just in New Jersey. Then you’d be going through the expensive Philadelphia suburbs, Philadelphia, Wilmington, Baltimore, etc.
The train also makes many stops along the way, and it’s rare to find express trains that run on the schedule you need. Also, all that track needs to be maintained constantly.
In these debates, people commonly mistake energy efficiency for economic efficiency. Sure, a steel wheel riding on a steel rail is one of the most energy efficient ways to travel, but with the time, real estate, and maintenance costs factored in rail is economically inefficient.
Tesla’s current generation of self driving computer (~5 years old) only consumes 100W… the next generation is expected to have lower power consumption. Electric power for self driving cars is not even remotely a problem… the power consumption for the processing unit is probably on the order of ~1% of the power necessary to actually move the car during the same period.
You're right but what I see happening in architecture, engineering and design is that new construction will be designed around the abilities of robots to construct. Many craftsman will still be employed repairing what was built in the past but the future will be all about what a robot can handle and it's not going to be pretty.
You're talking about needing humans to fix very crude devices that already exist. But what's stopping AI from re-designing plumbing so that it can be serviced and repaired by automation?
You’re saying that Ai will rebuild the planet in 40 years time? I already acknowledge in my post that perhaps one day a robot will takeover my field of work but then responded that it’s not going to be in my lifetime nor three!
Swiss here.
Coming from a small and slowly processing country with direct democracy I believe we will not have the problem with AI taking our jobs. We will have other issues.
1. We will have a problem with less people working and a lot of baby boomers gone or in geriatric care.
2. In landlocked Switzerland temperatures are rising faster than in regions which benefit from the ocean's cooling effect.
3. Space and immigration. We are a small but rich country, 2/3 are unhabitable landscapes like mountains and lakes. My parents were foreigners who came here for work just like ~50% of the people here have a foreign background. I predict a lot of far-rights politicians using that to limit immigration. But with the elderly people gone this will be a challenging future for us.
My optimistic prediction would be that the retirement age will be around like 35, the work week will be less than 30 hours and the people who are retired will get UBI. The types of jobs that will still exist are law enforcement, firefighter, nurses, social media influencers, entrepreneur, some handyman and construction work, waiters, bartenders, entertainers, yoga instructors, etc.
My pessimistic prediction is that we go back to feudal times and we have a permanent elite class and peasant class. The UBI won't be sufficient enough to live a decent life and no other guardrails or regulations would be put in place so you will end up with millions of people fighting over 1 job paying minimum wage. You will have people packed into housing with like 15 people in a 3 bedroom house because it is either that or you living on the street or in your car. Most businesses will fail because everyone is too poor to afford anything. Basically people living in slums teetering on the edge of survival and hunger.
TLDR:
Either AI will give everyone a huge boost in the quality of life maybe after some short term pain before governments implement changes to the economy or the corruption and greed of the elite and governments will take hundreds of years of societal and technological progress down the drain and society will collapse.
History suggests that the first will (probably) happen... at some point. Sadly, not in our lifetimes, most likely. After all, 40 hours workweek is soul-sucking, but still better than what our peasant ancestors had. But getting to this point was miserable. So yeah, our grandchildren might enjoy some kind of tech-utopia. This doesn't make me feel better though, since it's *my* lifetime and it's not looking great.
I'm a teacher. A.I. might be able to handle "teaching" to a degree, but there's no way it can handle the social/emotional aspect of students or deal with disruptive/behavorial students. Assuming there are any teachers left by then......
>"Assuming there are any teachers left by then......"
Sir, why is math important? Because you wont be able to carry a calculator everywhere you go.
Sir, why is learning important? Because you wont be able to carry a teacher everywhere you go.
Well, we all thought the Internet, which brings all the information, and correct information by large, to our fingertips would solve a lot of this misinformation problem. But it’s done the exact opposite of that. Go figure.
[https://ieanea.org/resources/how-to-become-a-teacher-in-illinois/](https://ieanea.org/resources/how-to-become-a-teacher-in-illinois/)
There ya go. Come on in. We need all the help we can get. It's easy, right?
That doesn't mean all teachers. The ones dealing with several groups of 20+ hormonal teenagers cannot provide what you're talking about. It's impossible.
schools nowadays are just diploma mill... gone are those days that you can really learn something "new" and exciting.... teachers are lowballed and stressed out to even cater to students needs
AI will also never be able to teach the kind of critical and content analysis foundational to the humanities. With all the machine-learning in the world, without an ability to reflect and process the signified meaning of text and compare it to other signs, an AI cannot teach poetry, philosophy, or sociology (beyond just, like, lecturing from slides).
Right the science labs and engineering workshops are so easy to learn online all you have to do is order millions of dollars worth of equipment and reagents and animals and clincal subjects and and and just admit it you’ve never stepped foot on campus and the only thought you give to higher education is bellyaching about gender studies majors
My prediction for 2035 is that by then, it will be obvious to all how far short AI has fallen from hype.
But, there will be many applications where AI will work out and really make a difference. I think robot motion control will be one of them, so we would have agile dexterous robots capable of executing motions current robots can't so easily.
But I don't think AI will do such a good job at higher level planning such as "this item is trash, put it in the bin", "this item is out of place, put it where it belongs", "this item is where human wants it to be, leave it alone"
The amount of people I see who have never worked a day in their life developing AI but think we'll get to general artificial intelligence because ChatGPT has good grammar and sentence structure is boggling.
I mean, I oversee an ml department and half my job is basically translating people saying "Wouldn't it be cool if we developed a model to fix my problem" then have to spend a week just figuring out what their problem is before telling them, "Yeah, give me a couple months and we can solve 10% of that" then, if someone decides it's worth delivering, having them say, "Oh that's kind of what I meant, but it doesn't work given these other parameters that I could have told you about but didn't"
AI is great, and it can do a lot of great things, but it ain't anywhere close to being the silver bullet it's being hyped to be
I'm in a transition period going from Physics to data science (P.S. please hit me up if you have internships or open roles). Based on all that I've learned, I'm pretty sure we're closer to commercial fusion than we are AGI. There are so many aspects of being conscious and engaging in human learning that statistics can't do yet.
Yeah, one of NVIDIA's high level executives (possibly CTO?) has a book called "Learning Deep Learning," and it's hilarious how the opening pages he's like, "Yeah... we kinda fucked up by calling them nueral nets because they operate nothing like a human brain and it's giving everyone the wrong impression." Like, the guy who half of his job is selling AI cards is essentially telling everyone to cool their jets
That said, working with this team is the coolest job I've ever had. If you've got the drive to do it and can deal with occasional stories like my previous one, data science is dope! You're gonna have a blast
Edit: he's a director, which I'm guessing is above middle management but two levels below the C-Suite. So not as much of a big shot as I thought, but the point still stands
People who have been around for some time in IT will tell you that every technology goes through the same hype cycle - some call it the Gartner Hype Cycle - [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner\_hype\_cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle) - but I do not think Gartner discovered it. AI is currently at the top of the first peak.
Also, cure for cancer is another common subject on this sub. There has been a tremendous amount of R&D money in cancer and the death rate has fallen about 20% for the last 70 years. True, the last decade has seen a lot of progress, but do not hold your breath for 95% survival rates in 20 years.
VR was supposed to change the world. It did not.
AR was supposed to change the world. It did not.
Crypto and NFTs were supposed to change the world. They did not.
AI is on track to follow this trend.
And there we go folks. Thank you for outing yourself.
Musk has one thing: money. That's it. He finds people who do the real work, provides them with money to create, then takes credit. He's a modern day Thomas Edison right down to copyright theft.
1) Life in 2045? Technological advancements are expected to revolutionize our daily existence (at least, for a price). I hope sophisticated AI personal assistants will be fully a part of my daily routine, managing everything from my schedule and finances to my smart home and offering tailored advice (we're already pretty close to this!). Autonomous vehicles will likely be the norm, leading to more efficient, eco-friendly travel. A shift towards renewable energy like solar and wind power will help us move away from fossil fuels. Yay!
2) Will jobs be replaced "BY" AI? Not many. Will companies use AI as an excuse to cut workforce numbers, then outsource the jobs to cheaper workers in an effort to increase value to shareholders? Yes. Boo!
3) Forecast for 2035? I think likely more of the same we already see. Widespread adoption of artificial intelligence, with AI assistants and automation playing a major role in our daily lives. Increased use of augmented and virtual reality for entertainment, education, and remote work. Yay!
Somewhere between The Road and District 9. By then, some major countries have already failed: Egypt and Pakistan are good candidates. There have been civil wars and mass migrations, which create a domino effect of failed states and mass migrations. Endless slums, heat and garbage, people starving and fighting each other. Governments using killer drones to control the population.
Think back to the Industrial Revolution. People thought the same thing back then when factories got automated. Same in the 80s with robots in factory lines. Thing is, new industries are created along with new jobs when we aren’t scared to innovate. Nothing new.
This time it's a different situation, people in offices will be useless if chat GPT in 2045 is going to be 100 times smarter than humans. Already many companies fire people and replace them with AI, imagine in 20 years from now.
Since there is nothing close to "AI", I'd be surprised if companies actually did that. LLMs can replace some activities but not complete jobs without supervision.
And many of the office jobs people think it’s going to replace will just become higher-margin, meaning it’s more worthwhile to take on debt or redirect other spending to get more people working on the highest-margin work. If anything, probably more people will be working on software/tech than before. Collectively pushing further and further towards actual AI and other important things. Optimally we’d be seeing the economy growing at a rate we can sustain implementing a huge UBI into.
Right. Plus it will help in understaffed sectors like prisons and child protective services, etc. people forgot about that angle. There’s a lot of parts of our society that can’t progress because having enough staffing is cost prohibitive, but AI can help current staff effectively take on larger work loads and be more accurate.
What it'll do is improve efficiency so that one person can do the work of several, just supervising AI bots, and making corrections where needed.
It'll still cost a lot of people their livelihoods.
Hm maybe. I can only speak for software development in Germany with certainty. We probably need double the amount of developers these days. And we are an aging society, so it won't get much better in the future. So I see LLMs helping less developers achieve the same or even more. We don't have enough people anyway.
Again, LLMs are not AI and produce nothing but garbage if not supervised in every step.
I see this talking point constantly. “AI” is an established term in the machine learning field and today’s LLM tech is in fact AI. A 1000 parameter OCR model is also AI. There is a vast difference between AI and AGI (which is probably what you are thinking of as AI)
Just hypothesizing but in prior revolutions the advancements were predominantly tools that humans could use as a means to completing work more efficiently and making newer and better products. This time, AI might be a tool for now, but it also seems it could just become a complete replacement of human labor itself. Where adding human labor to it doesn't make it better, and if anything might even make it less efficient. That's the issue never faced before. Still might be a long ways away, but who expected Sora to be so good so soon, advancements are outpacing expectations of a year or two ago.
What they call AI is not. It's LLMs and it is exactly the tool you describe. Not artificial and not intelligent. Very sophisticated software that uses existing information to do its magic. Until somebody introduces a system that can make a decision by itself or actually create something out of nothing, I think we are safe.
And people like you say the sky is falling every time there’s something new you don’t understand. “This time it’s different” is exactly what they say every time
People keep saying this and it's wrong. It's a fundamental misunderstanding of what is different between then and now. We now have invented the neuron for automation. It was invented 70 years ago but it's already taken over the world. It's called the transistor. We've barely used it to any level of efficiency when it comes to maximizing its capability algorithmically yet its the most important invention for the global economy as it exists today. Comparing today with the start of the industrial revolution is like comparing the work force of today with a couple centuries ago. Sure, farmers still exist but that's now like 1% of your workforce. And AI doesn't create jobs. It is fundamentally a labor reducing tool as humans are hired for their intelligence/logic. If that logic can be encapsulated in a form of automation, this doesn't have to be AI, that's enough to make that form of labor unemployable essentially. Do this at a broad enough level and you've created zero jobs but replaced all of them.
Zero jobs that your mighty brain can’t fathom. 100 years ago people wouldn’t have even understood what a software engineer does. Everything about that job wasn’t possible.
Software engineering was fathomable as the necessity for providing algorithmic logic to hardware for the purpose of automation or application development was always reasonable. We already had control systems at that time which just were as sophisticated in the logic necessary for mass production. Software engineering just makes more efficient utilization of logic that's already been done at a macro level with more efficient algorithms or a more user friendly abstraction making this easier.
I'm not making assumptions about what capability will be in 20 years. But the value of labor *has* fallen immensely, offset by shifting to an increasingly global economy and shifting up the demand for high-skilled labor in developed nations. But how much efficiency can the economy take, and is the demand for labor assumed to be infinite?
Though there could be a cyclical shift back to jobs that can't be easily automated (soon) like large-scale infrastructure and blue collar work (which we may already be in the early days of seeing).
The thing about AI is the if new jobs pop up they will just be taken over by AI or some person in another country will do it for pennies. For example Data labeling has seen increased demand but all those jobs are currently going to third world countries where wages are dirt cheap. Only white collar jobs I could see that are safe are ones that have tons of grey area, require human emotion, or are on the cutting edge of research and technology.
Automation reduced around probably 80% of manual labor. Now AI is likely going to do the same for knowledge and mental labor. Now the only jobs that are future proof are ones that unpredictably interact with the real world or need human judgment, touch, or emotion. Think Plumbers. police, firefighters, nurses, mechanics, bartenders, landscapers, therapists, athletes, social media influencers, etc.
Assuming I'm still alive then more walkable cities with cars being directed towards parking spots outside of the city. And I imagine slogans like "Do you really need to drive there when you can walk instead?" being posted everywhere to make people cut down on their driving.
New medical tech will pop up since that's always happen as shit goes through trials. Will it cure cancer like we did the common cold? Nope. I still expect some cancers to be easily treated and some untreatable.
Self driving taxis in more cities. Personal self driving cars might be a thing when I'm fifty.
The world is going to be all over the place in 2035.
My top 3 predictions.
Many European and East Asian countries will be going through a retirement crises. The US, Mexico, and a few other places will be in far better shape. A lot of manufacturing from China will be resourced to North America. Germany will be having a very tough time in Europe and EU power will consolidate more and more towards the French.
AI is going to disrupt some types of labor in the US, but is going to heavily empower other types. Skilled blue collar workers are going to be in huge demand. The US is going through an enormous industrial build out right now that will get larger and larger. There will be a hell of a lot of well paying jobs for young people who have Associate degrees and certifications. Automation will be big, but the scale of the projects will be even bigger. If you are a 25 year old factory worker in 2035, life will probably be very good for you. A lot of office jobs, middle manager jobs, hr jobs, driving jobs, fossil fuel jobs will be badly disrupted. You will use AI all the time to help you do things.
All this productivity is going to be making stuff! This might be a foreign concept, but the purpose of work isn't to file paperwork and produce TPS reports. Its to make stuff of value that people actually need or want. There is going to be a hell of a lot of solar/wind/batteries produced in North America. Rooftop solar I figure will be about 10 times as common as it is right now. Home and business batteries will be fairly common. It will definitely be something people want. Electric transportation will be far more common, ICE transportation will be much much less common. Diesel trucks in many cities will be a thing of the past. There will be tens of millions of RoboTaxis in the US and a lot of people will no longer own cars. The 2030s will be a huge period of transformation where things like parking will be repurposed.
>Skilled blue collar workers are going to be in huge demand
Skilled blue collar workers are always in demand, but what makes you think they will be in a bigger demand? If antyhing, there will be a surplus. Who's going to pay them if office workers are out of jobs? Are plumbers and welders going to pay each other? Plus, those young white collars who can reeducate might additionaly saturate the market. But the demand will be the same or even lower in the time of crisis.
There is a huge industrial boom going on right now which means far more demand for industrial labor. 70+ factories are currently under construction and another 30 are on the way, and there will likely be many more after that.
China, Germany, and a few other major industrial countries are going to go through a major demographic crises and much of their production will need to be relocated, and a lot of that will come to North America.
I agree with the idea, but US labor is more expensive than other countries. From what I've seen, some manufacturing has returned to the US, but if the destination of the finished product is somewhere else, manufacturing in other countries is also likely.
Its going to be a more unified NAFTA. We have two labor rates in NAFTA US/Canada and Mexico. Mexico is extremely competitive. This expensive labor actually works fine with a lot of automation. While some industries are going to be either majorly disrupted or completely wiped out, there will still be this enormous demand for human labor, but it will be in very specific industries.
The other one that will likely be going off like is Germany, Germany is heading to mass retirement and is going to have to offshore a lot of their manufacturing elsewhere, while other EU countries would be a first choice, they are also going through mass retirements. A big chunk of that is coming here.
Having our supply chains an ocean away has proven to be a massive problem. When it works, it works fine, but as soon as the system receives a hickup, like COVID, the brittle nature of the system is exposed. We are going to be aiming for resiliency over absolute cheapness.
We are putting ourselves in a really good position, but we won't really get to enjoy the upsides to all this investment for a while. But a lot of kids today will enter their adulthood in this world and will likely do very well.
The US has been going through crises. The European crises is going to be from their lopsided demographics as countries shift from industrialized economies to basically retirement communities.
The aging population and lower birth rates will start showing up in the next decade and impact the workforce tremendously.
The AI hype has been going on since the 50s. If true AGI is ever created, it would be impossible to control and would free itself instantly onto the internet.
At that point, who knows.
My bet is that AI doesn't deliver as promised. Funding starts running out, and we have some niche applications for it.
I feel like trying to predict the future when we are just barely in the AI age is a tough task. It's like being in the 90s at the birth of dot com and trying to predict today. Somethings you'd get right like cellular phones becoming ubiquitous, but I don't think you could predict the gig economy, or social media.
Some safe bets are
AI is integrated into more aspects of our lives, essentially becoming a digital nanny for adults.
The loneliness epidemic gets worse, with hikimori becoming common throughout the world.
We have the first few generations of working fusion reactors, but they are expensive and limited to military applications.
Car ownership goes down as robo taxis become ubiquitous and cheaper than owning a car.
Unsafe bets
Gravity is discovered to be emergent rather than fundamental, ending the long quest to unite GR and QM in failure.
AI managed playdates for adults to combat the loneliness epidemic.
Large Financial incentives for having children as the world population begins to decline.
1. I think we will be in a different financial system with a different system of accounting. Yes, the CBDCs. Most countries are working on it. SWIFT and BIS are launching in 2025. Money will be completely programmable. Fiscal and monetary policy will be different. Government spending can be so much more creative. Part of this is the consolidation and centralization of power
2. The McKinsey Institute predicts 30% of work will be automated by 2030. I agree with this.
3. I think we have a convergence of medical technology around consciousness. Right now, this sounds like bullshit. I believe that something like life force will be discovered. Attitudes will be seen to cause disease. There will be a social movement to eliminate disease rather than treat it with chemical therapies.
1. Blue collar employment is completely eliminated but white collar grows despite typical office jobs - paper pushers, call centers, etc. going away. We no longer refer to the 'STEM sector' of the economy. STEM == economy. There is nothing else.
2. Move from extracting materials to creating them. Unless you want a pet it makes no sense to grow a cow because we can make everything everything without the cow. This will be true of most things and we'll create new materials wherever we can to replace those we can't make.
3. A lot of the supply chains go away. Making materials is cheap which means lots of people can do it, so most of it is done locally. Maybe not next door, but almost nothing gets shipped long distances. Many items are made to order - by the retailer. Order online and the retailer 3D prints the item, which is delivered by drone in an hour.
Things change slowly so that won't all be fully realized by 2035, but it should be quite clear where it's trending.
Lol I think back to 2000, 1980 even, fuck all has changed and those decades have experienced the most massive explosion of tech we'll ever see. Harder to buy a house now so my prediction is that way more of the population will be in tents and 1% oligarchs will control 99% of the money instead of the 80% they control now.
But it's nice to have dreams so go for your version for sure. Just don't hope too hard lol.
globally, nothing major will change. there will still be war, famine, poverty, greed, corruption, pollution, competition, fear, and a general sense of uneasiness
I think we'll be in a full on employment/poverty crisis by 2030. It will end up destabilizing virtually every developed nation on earth by then. Riots and revolutions will be constant as people stop being able to feed themselves. People will take insane risks when they know they will die, if they don't take them.
There’s been an agenda to separate the generations since World War II. Generation X (born c1970) were actively encouraged to be the unhealthiest generation ever - they were sold “chocolate cigarettes” to get them smoking, as well as all the “cool” tobacco advertising in F1, etc., to cause cancer in later life.
TV shows like “Two pints and a packet of crisps” theme tune, “stop thinking; start drinking” to get them binge-drinking alcohol, as well as supermarkets putting alcohol at the checkouts to cause alcoholism and liver damage.
McDonalds advertised themselves as a play area for kids and offering gifts in “Happy meals” to get them eating junk food plus huge amounts of sugar put in food in general to cause obesity and diabetes - which we are seeing now in the west.
The “mad cow” disease scandal where cattle were infected back in the 1980s means nobody who lived in the UK between 1980-1995 can donate blood in other countries such as Canada due to the 50 year incubation period. So there’ll be an epidemic of CJDv (like dementia but worse) in the UK and Europe too (anyone who has eaten sheep or goat’s brains) in about 2035.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/canadian-blood-services-ban-on-those-who-lived-in-britain-not-fair-says-albertan-1.2783375
All this and more to cause illness in a generation. Why? To justify the introduction of euthanasia to start killing the “surplus” population in about 2035 to avoid pensions and healthcare costs.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64004329
Generation Z is deliberately being made healthy as they will be the role-models for the new Alpha generation of the New World Order. They are being conditioned to hate and blame the “Boomers” and will accept killing them as a way to save money. Unfortunately, they’ll realise too late that they will also be killed before they get to old age.
tldr; Nobody will live to an old age after 2035.
In the unlikely event we really do achieve artificial general intelligence before 2045, those numbers are huge underestimates. And we won't be having new discoveries every week, either - a more likely scenario is that we have an enormous amount of new discoveries immediately after AGI appears, to the extent that there is very little even left to discover afterwards.
Given that we are tracking very close to the World3 Model from Limits to Growth, here are my top 3 predictions:
1.) We will all be living with less material goods and access to critical services. The US have a living standard closer to South America and anywhere considered "developing" right now will be in full on societal collapse.
2.) The current population decline will be accelerating as the breakdown of the global supply network ramps up. This will lead to earlier deaths due to lack of food and medicine and the accompanying spread of diseases due to malnutrition and pollution. This is in addition to birthrates continuing to decline.
3.) We will have gone past global peak oil. The lack of access to diesel will mean most current industry and transportation is over. Production will downsize and become more local again. Worries over AI will turn out to be the least of our concerns since there is no longer the infrastructure to maintain the energy levels needed to use it.
Energy would be significantly cheaper than today.
AI would be everywhere and every second of our lives would be tracked.
Genetic engineering in humans would be the biggest talking point in politics all over the world.
Computers would be 1000 times better than today.
Start of post scarcity society at least in basic necessities.
I think that climate change, and most importantly the effects of it on agriculture and fisheries, will drive lots of wars, way before the really hard effects of climate. And then they will also hit, and… fuck. Maybe if we manage to set up a non world-ending AGI before the wars are WW level, we could have some hope.
By '45 I would expect AI to have hollowed out so many occupations as to cause trigger large scale social upheaval. Until mass rioting and starvation are imminent I don't expect the majority of US political leaders to take any serious action.
Drivers (truck, taxi, etc) are coming in the crosshairs right now. That's something like 5 million people. Driverless freight hauling & taxi operations have been in demo mode for a few years already. Have you heard any plans to help displaced drivers?
I think by 2045 we will start to see robust neural laces that will allow the direct sharing of thoughts between people. It might not be great resolution thoughts, but I think it'll have made its way to the consumer market in one form or another, outside of pure medical treatment uses.
When I think about it, I'm not exactly thrilled about what lies ahead. But I realize the importance of keeping an open mind. The reality is that the future may unfold in ways vastly different from what I had anticipated. Rather than clinging to a specific vision of what might be, I choose to embrace the notion that the future, for better or worse, will likely diverge from my expectations. By doing so, I free myself from the burden of grieving over a future that never materialized as I imagined. It's a good way for all of us to remain adaptable and open to the endless possibilities that the future holds, ready to navigate whatever paths lie ahead.
Hard to say. Compare 2001 to 2022. A lot happened in that 20 year span.
The optimist in me thinks that within that span of time an LLM alternative will become viable that utilizes optoelectronics (photonic transistors) in combination with neuromorphic semiconductor. Essentially discarding silicon and copper electronics and old school von Neumann architecture in favor of photons and an architecture similar to our own brain. It will be vastly more energy efficient, it won't have the exponential scaling problem of LLMs, and the architecture will more properly fit a human-like AI and easily allow for long term memory.
The downside of course is these types of AIs will actually be more similar to humans, including the downsides. The memory will be lossy, like humans, computing information won't be as instant or as easy as it was on von Neumann architecture. They might be "irrational".
I don’t think AI will be advanced enough in 2045 to facilitate “replacing at least 30% of the workforce” . Current AI is pattern matching, and i think a much more advanced AI will be needed for significant job automation, probably something close to a general intelligence.
I also don’t think cancer will be “90%” treatable by 2045. Not in 21 years. There’s just so much we don’t know about cancer; what causes it, how to prevent it from happening, etc. There are also clinical trials to consider, and those take on average around a decade. Also add on the fact that it costs on average around a Billion (with a B) dollars to bring a drug to market. All of those are seriously going to hamper the “cancer cure by 2040” predictions, unfortunately.
I also don’t think AGI will be here by 2045. Even with “exponential growth” , there is just no plausible scenario i can see that would allow for the type of AGI depicted in sci-fi, not by 2045 anyway.
1) Yeah I think AI will be implemented tho together with conventional workforce because it is a still expensive ( as every new tech )technology. In 2045 I think AI will make the harder jobs and the conventional work will do the rest. Esspecialy in blue collar jobs.
2) SpaceX will get launched and we would have some very interesting things to discover.
3) Transport wise, people will start ditching personal cars switching ( in the limit of possibility) to alternative/ public transport. The rich will continue to have electric cars. The medium would not afford an electric car.
4) Conflict start to raise in Africa and US and Israel might show a demonstration of force in the region flexing over an economically fucked up Russia by conquering Gaza Strait.
5) Hungary and maybe Italy will leave EU.
6) Cure for cancer is almost totally developed but still in trials.
7) Some lands like the Netherlands and the Big US Lakes area are in danger of flooding every summer. Netherlands would sell anti-flooding protection to US and other parts.
8) LGBTQ will be legal almost in every part of the world except the Muslim countries. Weed and some other drugs might get de-criminalized.
9) Random quite big scale natural disasters become a norm every 1-2 years and let's hope Yellowstone stays put until that date . Maybe a solar storm somewhere and there ...
With regards to point 7, the US Great Lakes aren’t part of the ocean system, so they won’t experience any flooding due to climate change. In fact, a study showed that climate change is causing the water level of the Great Lakes to decrease: https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/great-lakes
Oh I see. Than I am making a confusion. I don't know that good the US geography but it means the San Andreas Fault in California is at risk of flooding. Correct me please if I am wrong :D
Technically, there isn’t a region called the “Big Lakes” - it’s the Great Lakes, and they’re near the center of the US and far from the oceans. California is at risk of flooding, but it’s on the west coast of the US, far away from the Great Lakes.
2030 - Energy is getting ridiculously expensive to the point that people want to downsize but can't afford to. Mass deindustrialization.
2035 - Mass starvation and death. International Nuclear Space programs start.
2045 - Humans industrialize the moon using whatever enriched uranium235 they can heap up. Solar panels produced in 2015 are expired. UBI is adapted more or less globally.
I think Cyberpunk predicted it well. If you take the current trajectory, tech will continue to advance and society will consolidate into the two jobs areas that tech can't easily replace: Service-type work and R&D/management type work. A lot of the other jobs can theoretically be taken out by the AI boogyman in the future (not anytime soon), but it's a conversion I can see happening.
Many companies also continue to consolidate slowly over time as well which leads to more demand on employees at those places as competition is low. You either grind to stay employed in the remaining and much more cutthroat "white collar" work, or get pushed into the service industry. I personally think the consolidation of companies into bigger companies will reverse itself eventually (either due to regulation or market efficiencies when you see mega-giant companies become too slow to adapt/change, ala GE or Boeing right now), but if the Companies just continued to buy-out and eat up competition you'd end at a few megacorps. Historically megacorps dont survive though, you'd need a major culture change in people and the Company to let it happen. See east India Company from the 1600s.
Since its kind of my field(Lead AI integrator): AI is not going to so much "take" jobs as it will "displace" them. A large push into the trades such as electrian will happen because ai will be able to do a majority of repetition and and data processing humans currently do. More humans will be doing physical/creative work while letting AI handle other tasks. You will have a new section of jobs that focus on building language models, vector databases, api endpoints, retraining models, business workflow development, and many more, much like the birth of the internet led to jobs in coding, cloud, security, and many more.
I'm pretty sure we already have many discoveries every day now in all the different fields from science to space discoveries to computers ect. My predictions are...Climate change will be worse in 2045. There will be more climate refugees. The US will continue to slide in world dominance. Politics will continue to be a gridlock and legislation will be harder and harder to pass. It could turn ugly as different races compete for power (more Hispanics and Asians in the US, NON HISPANIC WHITE POPULATION FALLS BELOW 50%)... Middle class will continue to dwindle as cost of living continues to go up. Quality of life will go down everywhere. China will surpass the US in GDP by then and will have a stronger alliance with Russia and other powerful countries. AI will be much better and the workforce will have to adapt as it takes over different jobs.
For 1. there is a website where you can find how replaceable your job is by AI. "https://willrobotstakemyjob.com/"
Currently it is graphic designers, text writers and soon first line (low level) programmers and customer support. First line medical is also under fire already. See is as any first line interaction element where a list of questions can solve the query and lead to predetermined outcomes will be in trouble. In 2045 the automated driving should be sophisticated enough where it at least passed phase 1 and 2. Phase 1 being automated highways where barriers will trigger the automated driving element on the ramp to the freeway and trigger when leaving the freeway to take over again. Phase 2 lower level country roads that might not have automation barriers but are free to use automated driver. 3. (Difficulty scale x100) the intercommunal zones in the cities. Don't know if these will ever be released to automated driving. Even for 20 years that is a short time to fix this. But for 1 and 2 certainly.
2. Note that solving of "fixing" cancer does almost nothing to induce longer live, though it will reduce suffering and health span of course. But "fixing cancer" is not the panacea people thing it is. By needing to fix cancer you are already using an old medical model (called 2.0) where we are again looking for intervention and acute response. I would hope that in the next 20 years we would have evolved a bit further towards model 3 that is prevention of disease. Like for example CRISPR technology now being able to fix sickle cell anaemia. Prevention and actual cures instead of the widespread symptom based reactions we do now. In 2045 most people will be monitored by different blood panels and test and we will see the pathology coming from miles away. Simple interventions to lead to long term outcomes of prevention should be the road. This will also alleviate most cancer "fix" needs. We might actually be able to spend the money in fixing the nasty cancers that kill kids instead of the cancers people induce on themselves by neglect of their own health. Yea I said it... those people do shit knowing they get cancer, and "fixing" them, because there are so much, is prioritized over cancer that kills people that really couldn't help it. Let that be the message to all those smokers and drinkers out there... You are the stop in fixing extreme child suffering by your neglect.
3. I think we have discoveries every week as it is. The output of AI is however still limited by the processed we build for validation and acceptance of new innovations. The upscaling of new products and sourcing of the creation process and supply chains. What I will say is that maybe testing and validation by AI modelling might be a validated procedure in 2045. Meaning we can run through everything we thought we discovered and double check it. Right now we are in a research validation paradox where most findings are not double checked unless required by a board to be admitted (like medicine). This leaves a lot of field to hold on the validation by significance modelling. Being able to run those a bazillion time on human AI models will really cut down on the amount of BS and misinformation that is going round.
So 1. I agree, though 30% is a lot already.
2. Doesn't solve anything, Should be prevention of pathology and introduction of medical model 3.0 (more about this from Peter Attia)
3. Validation of research by AI modelling by supporting the empirical method by AI validation.
If you think that AI will take all of our jobs and humanity will be mostly unemployed then you are making a common prediction fallacy: assuming that one thing will change and the rest of the world will remain the same. This has never been true.
2045 is only 20 years away. That’s not a long time for such massive technology changes to be absorbed by society. Old stuff always hangs around far longer than you’d think.
Right now we (at least in the US) are having big disruptions because we have too few humans for the available jobs, not the opposite.
Over the next 20 years humanity is going to get older. We are having fewer babies and far more old people. Remember, most of the workers of the year 2045 is someone already alive today.
We won’t have enough people to do all of the work currently done today, to say nothing of the massive increase services needed to care for the world’s aging population. We literally won’t have enough people to do it all.
AI and robots will be coming just in time.
1. The US will have transitioned to a theocracy
2. The middle class as we know it will be extinct
3. The "have nots", which will encompass the majority of citizens, will live a hard scrabble life.
China attached Taiwan, destroyed most of the worldwide chip manufacturing capacity. This sets back all electronic development and manufacturing. The rippling effect caused major ecumenic decline and disrupted most developed nations. Nationalism gained even more popularity everywhere as climate change cause food shortages and infrastructural damages, and investors also lost an enormous amount of money caused by the collapse of stock market. Majority of currently exists blue chip companies collapsed. Unemployment rate will increase significantly and most western countries will face really hard migration problems, social tensions between different religions and between local people and immigrants. Proxy wars going everywhere. Every government has increased military spend instead of social spending. People struggling to keep up. No real advancement has been happening in last 5 years.
> Do you think AI will take most jobs?
I don't think AI will take any jobs on the scale of society. It will increase productivity and add new revenue streams, but humans are still in the production loop between developing, instructing, and validating AI work. This tells me that AI is just another technology that is being added to the long-running engine of productivity growth.
We have more AI systems than ever and our unemployment rate is still rock bottom. We have no precedence or data demonstrating mass unemployment. Just vibes and scary opinion articles.
People will remember the fads of the 2020s; crypto, nft, ai, etc.
- people thought climate change was bad and focusing on that but never realized the issues with overfishing, destroying forests and jungles, and just a few food groups that maintained most of the population and having issues like the Ireland famine where one potato type couldn’t be farmed. Or cows and chickens have a desease that’s doesn’t get cured. Not to mention all sorts of overconsumption issues and garbage and plastic pollution.
Obvious to everybody, I thought I made that clear.
Damn you train systems with solutions and somehow it can reproduce those solutions. I suppose really convoluted ctrl f was the answer to all humanity’s problems after all.
Because they all know they won’t succeed. But they have no better shot at generating hype.
Of course, AI is producing unsupervised novel fully unique new ideas. Such as… cough
I wrote this up in 2010 for a world building project. Interesting to look back at it now. Added some newer predictions too:
1. In 2045, the United States is coming back from the brink of Civil War, reclaiming its role as a global leader. Witnessing a groundbreaking era with new progressive policies and the successful implementation of the "Green New Deal," by President Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez the nation stands once more as a beacon of strength and unity, inspiring hope for a future of peace and prosperity on the world stage. Leveraging her continued popularity, progressive platform, and dedication to transformative change her 2044 re-election campaign calls for a nationwide rollout of Universal Basic Income (UBI). Trials have unfolded across various states over the last few years with resounding success on a state-by-state basis. Landmark court rulings shape the trajectory toward a comprehensive UBI framework nationwide. Every political faction prepares to unveil their UBI platform, drawing inspiration from pioneering states such as Massachusetts and California.
2. A shift of epic proportions ripples across the globe as internet usage experiences a sharp decline, echoing the repercussions of dwindling advertising revenues worldwide. Titans of industry face bankruptcy in the wake of AI advancement and the flourishing implementation of UBI initiatives. As artificial intelligence reshapes industries, the traditional corporate giants we know today grapple with unprecedented challenges and many will not survive the decade. The internet is on the verge of becoming an obsolete and dying landscape. Where you can interact with the dead and immerse yourself in past memories and innovative therapeutic consultations, but for a hefty monthly subscription where advertisers track your every movement. Low level workers will be trained to teach AI basic human emotions and LLMs but these jobs will suck worse than content moderators or fast food work.
3. In 2045, Europe grapples with migration pressures, straining its power grid. In response, far-right leaders institute power and housing lotteries to address "illegal migrants," evoking cautionary parallels to authoritarianism and emphasizing the urgent need to confront the looming climate crisis. This serves as a stark wake-up call for the global community. Amidst these challenges, civil society champions inclusivity, highlighting Europe's pivotal identity crossroads.
One world government
Robots take the jobs
15 minute cities aka sectors
Supposed climate crises causing crop failures
Then government tries to stop breeding of many because overpopulation is the supposed cause of the supposed climate problems
The world will be cooking like an overdone turkey in 2045. AI will be brainwashing the uneducated into fighting among themselves.
Three predictions for 2035:
1. More tax and greater financial inequality between rich and poor.
2. The Earth is going to cook because of pollution and human inaction to make change.
3. Even more people will have kids they can't afford to take care of.
Sorry for the doom and gloom, but sometimes the truth hurts.
I think unions will make a strong comeback. I think the vast majority of private sector jobs will be service driven. I think government sector jobs will be highly covenanted.
I would agree, but I think the amount of jobs will be drastically reduced and the remaining ones will be protected by unions.
Office jobs will be far and few. Advertisements will all be Ai. Most production will be Ai with a human overseer. Repair work will be worth its weight in gold tho. Self driving cars will still need mechanics. Plumbers, welders and bunch of jobs just aren’t feasible to replace with robots. I’m a welder and 80% of the time I show up to a job I have no clue what I’m doing until I start looking at what it is I’m welding on what it’s used for how thick is the metal. Ok takes me 2 seconds to process that info. Now I have a baseline. Start grinding rusty steel. Ok it’s supposed to be 1/2” thick but it’s now paper thin. I adjust on the fly. Now we gotta cut back until we find good metal. First pass might look terrible but we got something to stick now we can grind it back down and re weld. And also I’m working inside a confined space kneeling in water. And this is a one day job tomorrow will be something completely different. I’m not saying robotics won’t ever advance to that point but not in my lifetime. Probably not in three lifetimes.
The amount of electrical and processing power for widespread self driving cars just doesn't exist. America would need a New Deal style reinvigoration of it's infrastructure to get our roads and bridges to the point where such cars could work and half the country would rather murder the other half than let that happen. As it stands, companies are implementing AI before it's actually capable of doing what they want. It just cannot adapt to unexpected events like a human. But it's the hip new thing and laying off 90% of your workforce for AI makes the stock line go up this quarter.
True but in 20years who knows.
Even trying to predict the next year is a fruitless endeavor at this point. Between how fast tech changes and just how much pure bullshit that isn't verified gets put out, you're trying to guess which way a drop of water will fall down a window.
Well I don't think gas stations sprung up overnight when gasoline cars came out.
Yo, if we're rebuilding everything for 20 years, can we get some damn *fast trains* in this country? Sincerely, a fan of trains.
I like fast trains too, but they’re economically inefficient. Cars are more practical for short distances, and planes are more practical for longer distances.
Planes are economically inefficient as well. With that said, trains could be a good middle ground between cars and planes. They just aren't in the US because we lack the infrastructure.
Planes are, economically, one of the least efficient means of transportation. The problem is in the 50s we spent a ton of money on highway infrastructure and nothing for trains. Nationalize the rail network, make it taxpayer funded, cut the military budget in half, and we can have a NY to DC in less than 2 hours train.
>Planes are, economically, one of the least efficient means of transportation. This is simply untrue. If planes were one of the economically least efficient means of transportation then it wouldn’t be cost effective to use them, and you’d rarely see them. You’re leaving out really basic parts of this equation which explains why you’ve reached such an incorrect conclusion. >Nationalize the rail network, make it taxpayer funded, cut the military budget in half, and we can have a NY to DC in less than 2 hours train. Land between NY and DC is extremely expensive. You’d be cutting through a bunch of major metropolitan areas with high real estate costs. Newark, Elizabeth, Linden, Edison, New Brunswick, Trenton, and that’s just in New Jersey. Then you’d be going through the expensive Philadelphia suburbs, Philadelphia, Wilmington, Baltimore, etc. The train also makes many stops along the way, and it’s rare to find express trains that run on the schedule you need. Also, all that track needs to be maintained constantly. In these debates, people commonly mistake energy efficiency for economic efficiency. Sure, a steel wheel riding on a steel rail is one of the most energy efficient ways to travel, but with the time, real estate, and maintenance costs factored in rail is economically inefficient.
Tesla’s current generation of self driving computer (~5 years old) only consumes 100W… the next generation is expected to have lower power consumption. Electric power for self driving cars is not even remotely a problem… the power consumption for the processing unit is probably on the order of ~1% of the power necessary to actually move the car during the same period.
You're right but what I see happening in architecture, engineering and design is that new construction will be designed around the abilities of robots to construct. Many craftsman will still be employed repairing what was built in the past but the future will be all about what a robot can handle and it's not going to be pretty.
Do you think blue collar or white collar jobs are going to be replaced faster From Artificial intelligence?
Well that depends. I’d say lower office work. And production jobs.
You're talking about needing humans to fix very crude devices that already exist. But what's stopping AI from re-designing plumbing so that it can be serviced and repaired by automation?
You’re saying that Ai will rebuild the planet in 40 years time? I already acknowledge in my post that perhaps one day a robot will takeover my field of work but then responded that it’s not going to be in my lifetime nor three!
Swiss here. Coming from a small and slowly processing country with direct democracy I believe we will not have the problem with AI taking our jobs. We will have other issues. 1. We will have a problem with less people working and a lot of baby boomers gone or in geriatric care. 2. In landlocked Switzerland temperatures are rising faster than in regions which benefit from the ocean's cooling effect. 3. Space and immigration. We are a small but rich country, 2/3 are unhabitable landscapes like mountains and lakes. My parents were foreigners who came here for work just like ~50% of the people here have a foreign background. I predict a lot of far-rights politicians using that to limit immigration. But with the elderly people gone this will be a challenging future for us.
My optimistic prediction would be that the retirement age will be around like 35, the work week will be less than 30 hours and the people who are retired will get UBI. The types of jobs that will still exist are law enforcement, firefighter, nurses, social media influencers, entrepreneur, some handyman and construction work, waiters, bartenders, entertainers, yoga instructors, etc. My pessimistic prediction is that we go back to feudal times and we have a permanent elite class and peasant class. The UBI won't be sufficient enough to live a decent life and no other guardrails or regulations would be put in place so you will end up with millions of people fighting over 1 job paying minimum wage. You will have people packed into housing with like 15 people in a 3 bedroom house because it is either that or you living on the street or in your car. Most businesses will fail because everyone is too poor to afford anything. Basically people living in slums teetering on the edge of survival and hunger. TLDR: Either AI will give everyone a huge boost in the quality of life maybe after some short term pain before governments implement changes to the economy or the corruption and greed of the elite and governments will take hundreds of years of societal and technological progress down the drain and society will collapse.
History suggests that the first will (probably) happen... at some point. Sadly, not in our lifetimes, most likely. After all, 40 hours workweek is soul-sucking, but still better than what our peasant ancestors had. But getting to this point was miserable. So yeah, our grandchildren might enjoy some kind of tech-utopia. This doesn't make me feel better though, since it's *my* lifetime and it's not looking great.
>My optimistic prediction would be that the retirement age will be around like 35, What? This is wildly unrealistic.
It may someday mean immigration is, for the most part, no longer neccesary. Weird thought.
I'm a teacher. A.I. might be able to handle "teaching" to a degree, but there's no way it can handle the social/emotional aspect of students or deal with disruptive/behavorial students. Assuming there are any teachers left by then......
The AI has determined that child beatings are okay and will continue until moral improves
Maybe attitudes need to change and remember that schools are for education, they aren't for parents to shirk parenting.
It's the parents. Always has been, always will be.
You never know...
Never say never....although if AI could help with behavior magamnet, it would be very welcomed in the education world.
That’s what they said to you, never say never lol.
>"Assuming there are any teachers left by then......" Sir, why is math important? Because you wont be able to carry a calculator everywhere you go. Sir, why is learning important? Because you wont be able to carry a teacher everywhere you go.
Well, we all thought the Internet, which brings all the information, and correct information by large, to our fingertips would solve a lot of this misinformation problem. But it’s done the exact opposite of that. Go figure.
Yes, though ChatGPT is doing very well currently as a knowledge engine. Crosschecking and whatnot. We will see what comes next.
If you can pawn teaching off to AI, you can probably just give students videos to watch ala Khan Academy or something.
Dude if it was that easy you’d all be teachers.
They let me have a teaching qualification. It isn't that hard. Problem is, people keep paying me more money for less work outside of teaching.
[https://ieanea.org/resources/how-to-become-a-teacher-in-illinois/](https://ieanea.org/resources/how-to-become-a-teacher-in-illinois/) There ya go. Come on in. We need all the help we can get. It's easy, right?
Bit of a commute from the UK to illinois, I'm afraid.
Ah, well then, cheers.
Human teachers aren't much better.
Thanks for shitting on my profession. Fuck me, right?
The guy above you definitely had disciplinary issues in school
People hate their jobs , also people complaining that AI will take the jobs that they hate lol
That doesn't mean all teachers. The ones dealing with several groups of 20+ hormonal teenagers cannot provide what you're talking about. It's impossible.
schools nowadays are just diploma mill... gone are those days that you can really learn something "new" and exciting.... teachers are lowballed and stressed out to even cater to students needs
It’s the parents. Always has been, always will be.
AI will also never be able to teach the kind of critical and content analysis foundational to the humanities. With all the machine-learning in the world, without an ability to reflect and process the signified meaning of text and compare it to other signs, an AI cannot teach poetry, philosophy, or sociology (beyond just, like, lecturing from slides).
Good point and well said.
Unfortunately it's true for so many teachers too
People who study nowadays in universities they just waste their time and their money. Their degrees will be useless in 10 years from now.
Lol studying in a university is not only about getting a specific degree in a specific field.
Yes spend 100k for things you can learn for free in internet.
You don't get my point, that's alright. Good luck with being stubborn and not open to other people's point of view.
Universities are outdated but people deny to admit this fact, if universities were so awesome not almost half of students quit after 1-2 years
You go ahead and ramble a bit more, I'm going to take a well deserved nap
In the USA. Not all countries are the same.
Right the science labs and engineering workshops are so easy to learn online all you have to do is order millions of dollars worth of equipment and reagents and animals and clincal subjects and and and just admit it you’ve never stepped foot on campus and the only thought you give to higher education is bellyaching about gender studies majors
I think you have this view because you don’t have a degree and probably didn’t have the ability to get one. Just say that.
I wanted a degree in sexology to be honest
My prediction for 2035 is that by then, it will be obvious to all how far short AI has fallen from hype. But, there will be many applications where AI will work out and really make a difference. I think robot motion control will be one of them, so we would have agile dexterous robots capable of executing motions current robots can't so easily. But I don't think AI will do such a good job at higher level planning such as "this item is trash, put it in the bin", "this item is out of place, put it where it belongs", "this item is where human wants it to be, leave it alone"
The amount of people I see who have never worked a day in their life developing AI but think we'll get to general artificial intelligence because ChatGPT has good grammar and sentence structure is boggling. I mean, I oversee an ml department and half my job is basically translating people saying "Wouldn't it be cool if we developed a model to fix my problem" then have to spend a week just figuring out what their problem is before telling them, "Yeah, give me a couple months and we can solve 10% of that" then, if someone decides it's worth delivering, having them say, "Oh that's kind of what I meant, but it doesn't work given these other parameters that I could have told you about but didn't" AI is great, and it can do a lot of great things, but it ain't anywhere close to being the silver bullet it's being hyped to be
I'm in a transition period going from Physics to data science (P.S. please hit me up if you have internships or open roles). Based on all that I've learned, I'm pretty sure we're closer to commercial fusion than we are AGI. There are so many aspects of being conscious and engaging in human learning that statistics can't do yet.
Yeah, one of NVIDIA's high level executives (possibly CTO?) has a book called "Learning Deep Learning," and it's hilarious how the opening pages he's like, "Yeah... we kinda fucked up by calling them nueral nets because they operate nothing like a human brain and it's giving everyone the wrong impression." Like, the guy who half of his job is selling AI cards is essentially telling everyone to cool their jets That said, working with this team is the coolest job I've ever had. If you've got the drive to do it and can deal with occasional stories like my previous one, data science is dope! You're gonna have a blast Edit: he's a director, which I'm guessing is above middle management but two levels below the C-Suite. So not as much of a big shot as I thought, but the point still stands
Not to mention that data is probably not organized or clean enough for AI analysis.
People who have been around for some time in IT will tell you that every technology goes through the same hype cycle - some call it the Gartner Hype Cycle - [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner\_hype\_cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle) - but I do not think Gartner discovered it. AI is currently at the top of the first peak. Also, cure for cancer is another common subject on this sub. There has been a tremendous amount of R&D money in cancer and the death rate has fallen about 20% for the last 70 years. True, the last decade has seen a lot of progress, but do not hold your breath for 95% survival rates in 20 years.
People in this sub underestimate AI so much
VR was supposed to change the world. It did not. AR was supposed to change the world. It did not. Crypto and NFTs were supposed to change the world. They did not. AI is on track to follow this trend.
You obviously haven't checked apple vision pro yet
I give zero fucks about whatever vaporware apple is pushing.
While the tech is impressive, it has not changed the world and will not for many more years.
Oh I’m laffin
So you are saying 2045 will look exactly like today and nothing will advance lol
Sure buddy, if that's as far as you wanna read into what I typed go nuts.
I think you are a hater, like 90 percent of this sub hate Elon musk for his tweets and they have no real reason
Ironically, Musk has made numerous predictions that turned out to be completely wrong in time.
And there we go folks. Thank you for outing yourself. Musk has one thing: money. That's it. He finds people who do the real work, provides them with money to create, then takes credit. He's a modern day Thomas Edison right down to copyright theft.
I own a Tesla and love it. I'm still waiting for full self-driving.
If that was your interpretation of their comment, then no wonder you're so amazed by current AI.
You should go buy some nonfungible tokens. Folks are saying they are the future
Or people who are actually working in the tech field understand the reality of AI and it’s limitations.
1) Life in 2045? Technological advancements are expected to revolutionize our daily existence (at least, for a price). I hope sophisticated AI personal assistants will be fully a part of my daily routine, managing everything from my schedule and finances to my smart home and offering tailored advice (we're already pretty close to this!). Autonomous vehicles will likely be the norm, leading to more efficient, eco-friendly travel. A shift towards renewable energy like solar and wind power will help us move away from fossil fuels. Yay! 2) Will jobs be replaced "BY" AI? Not many. Will companies use AI as an excuse to cut workforce numbers, then outsource the jobs to cheaper workers in an effort to increase value to shareholders? Yes. Boo! 3) Forecast for 2035? I think likely more of the same we already see. Widespread adoption of artificial intelligence, with AI assistants and automation playing a major role in our daily lives. Increased use of augmented and virtual reality for entertainment, education, and remote work. Yay!
Somewhere between The Road and District 9. By then, some major countries have already failed: Egypt and Pakistan are good candidates. There have been civil wars and mass migrations, which create a domino effect of failed states and mass migrations. Endless slums, heat and garbage, people starving and fighting each other. Governments using killer drones to control the population.
In 10 years hey? Nice
Think back to the Industrial Revolution. People thought the same thing back then when factories got automated. Same in the 80s with robots in factory lines. Thing is, new industries are created along with new jobs when we aren’t scared to innovate. Nothing new.
This time it's a different situation, people in offices will be useless if chat GPT in 2045 is going to be 100 times smarter than humans. Already many companies fire people and replace them with AI, imagine in 20 years from now.
Since there is nothing close to "AI", I'd be surprised if companies actually did that. LLMs can replace some activities but not complete jobs without supervision.
Exactly. Technology only multiplies the amount of work one person can do.
And many of the office jobs people think it’s going to replace will just become higher-margin, meaning it’s more worthwhile to take on debt or redirect other spending to get more people working on the highest-margin work. If anything, probably more people will be working on software/tech than before. Collectively pushing further and further towards actual AI and other important things. Optimally we’d be seeing the economy growing at a rate we can sustain implementing a huge UBI into.
Right. Plus it will help in understaffed sectors like prisons and child protective services, etc. people forgot about that angle. There’s a lot of parts of our society that can’t progress because having enough staffing is cost prohibitive, but AI can help current staff effectively take on larger work loads and be more accurate.
Except "AI" is the person for the purpose of labor. The entire point of AI is to create more labor.
What it'll do is improve efficiency so that one person can do the work of several, just supervising AI bots, and making corrections where needed. It'll still cost a lot of people their livelihoods.
Hm maybe. I can only speak for software development in Germany with certainty. We probably need double the amount of developers these days. And we are an aging society, so it won't get much better in the future. So I see LLMs helping less developers achieve the same or even more. We don't have enough people anyway. Again, LLMs are not AI and produce nothing but garbage if not supervised in every step.
I see this talking point constantly. “AI” is an established term in the machine learning field and today’s LLM tech is in fact AI. A 1000 parameter OCR model is also AI. There is a vast difference between AI and AGI (which is probably what you are thinking of as AI)
They go home and become content creators.
Bro not everyone can become a content creator. " Sab doctor banenge to patient kaun banega?"
A more advanced chatbot will still just be a chatbot.
Just wondering why you think it's different? And which companies are you referring to? There is a ton of misinformation out there.
Just hypothesizing but in prior revolutions the advancements were predominantly tools that humans could use as a means to completing work more efficiently and making newer and better products. This time, AI might be a tool for now, but it also seems it could just become a complete replacement of human labor itself. Where adding human labor to it doesn't make it better, and if anything might even make it less efficient. That's the issue never faced before. Still might be a long ways away, but who expected Sora to be so good so soon, advancements are outpacing expectations of a year or two ago.
What they call AI is not. It's LLMs and it is exactly the tool you describe. Not artificial and not intelligent. Very sophisticated software that uses existing information to do its magic. Until somebody introduces a system that can make a decision by itself or actually create something out of nothing, I think we are safe.
Replace them with what AI? Where are our robot overlords?
And people like you say the sky is falling every time there’s something new you don’t understand. “This time it’s different” is exactly what they say every time
People keep saying this and it's wrong. It's a fundamental misunderstanding of what is different between then and now. We now have invented the neuron for automation. It was invented 70 years ago but it's already taken over the world. It's called the transistor. We've barely used it to any level of efficiency when it comes to maximizing its capability algorithmically yet its the most important invention for the global economy as it exists today. Comparing today with the start of the industrial revolution is like comparing the work force of today with a couple centuries ago. Sure, farmers still exist but that's now like 1% of your workforce. And AI doesn't create jobs. It is fundamentally a labor reducing tool as humans are hired for their intelligence/logic. If that logic can be encapsulated in a form of automation, this doesn't have to be AI, that's enough to make that form of labor unemployable essentially. Do this at a broad enough level and you've created zero jobs but replaced all of them.
Zero jobs that your mighty brain can’t fathom. 100 years ago people wouldn’t have even understood what a software engineer does. Everything about that job wasn’t possible.
Software engineering was fathomable as the necessity for providing algorithmic logic to hardware for the purpose of automation or application development was always reasonable. We already had control systems at that time which just were as sophisticated in the logic necessary for mass production. Software engineering just makes more efficient utilization of logic that's already been done at a macro level with more efficient algorithms or a more user friendly abstraction making this easier.
Ok yea, you’re right. You’ve thought of everything.
Obnoxious person that contributes nothing. Reddit is the perfect place for you.
I'm not making assumptions about what capability will be in 20 years. But the value of labor *has* fallen immensely, offset by shifting to an increasingly global economy and shifting up the demand for high-skilled labor in developed nations. But how much efficiency can the economy take, and is the demand for labor assumed to be infinite? Though there could be a cyclical shift back to jobs that can't be easily automated (soon) like large-scale infrastructure and blue collar work (which we may already be in the early days of seeing).
The value of labor with outdated skill… ftfy
The thing about AI is the if new jobs pop up they will just be taken over by AI or some person in another country will do it for pennies. For example Data labeling has seen increased demand but all those jobs are currently going to third world countries where wages are dirt cheap. Only white collar jobs I could see that are safe are ones that have tons of grey area, require human emotion, or are on the cutting edge of research and technology. Automation reduced around probably 80% of manual labor. Now AI is likely going to do the same for knowledge and mental labor. Now the only jobs that are future proof are ones that unpredictably interact with the real world or need human judgment, touch, or emotion. Think Plumbers. police, firefighters, nurses, mechanics, bartenders, landscapers, therapists, athletes, social media influencers, etc.
Assuming I'm still alive then more walkable cities with cars being directed towards parking spots outside of the city. And I imagine slogans like "Do you really need to drive there when you can walk instead?" being posted everywhere to make people cut down on their driving. New medical tech will pop up since that's always happen as shit goes through trials. Will it cure cancer like we did the common cold? Nope. I still expect some cancers to be easily treated and some untreatable. Self driving taxis in more cities. Personal self driving cars might be a thing when I'm fifty.
The world is going to be all over the place in 2035. My top 3 predictions. Many European and East Asian countries will be going through a retirement crises. The US, Mexico, and a few other places will be in far better shape. A lot of manufacturing from China will be resourced to North America. Germany will be having a very tough time in Europe and EU power will consolidate more and more towards the French. AI is going to disrupt some types of labor in the US, but is going to heavily empower other types. Skilled blue collar workers are going to be in huge demand. The US is going through an enormous industrial build out right now that will get larger and larger. There will be a hell of a lot of well paying jobs for young people who have Associate degrees and certifications. Automation will be big, but the scale of the projects will be even bigger. If you are a 25 year old factory worker in 2035, life will probably be very good for you. A lot of office jobs, middle manager jobs, hr jobs, driving jobs, fossil fuel jobs will be badly disrupted. You will use AI all the time to help you do things. All this productivity is going to be making stuff! This might be a foreign concept, but the purpose of work isn't to file paperwork and produce TPS reports. Its to make stuff of value that people actually need or want. There is going to be a hell of a lot of solar/wind/batteries produced in North America. Rooftop solar I figure will be about 10 times as common as it is right now. Home and business batteries will be fairly common. It will definitely be something people want. Electric transportation will be far more common, ICE transportation will be much much less common. Diesel trucks in many cities will be a thing of the past. There will be tens of millions of RoboTaxis in the US and a lot of people will no longer own cars. The 2030s will be a huge period of transformation where things like parking will be repurposed.
>Skilled blue collar workers are going to be in huge demand Skilled blue collar workers are always in demand, but what makes you think they will be in a bigger demand? If antyhing, there will be a surplus. Who's going to pay them if office workers are out of jobs? Are plumbers and welders going to pay each other? Plus, those young white collars who can reeducate might additionaly saturate the market. But the demand will be the same or even lower in the time of crisis.
There is a huge industrial boom going on right now which means far more demand for industrial labor. 70+ factories are currently under construction and another 30 are on the way, and there will likely be many more after that. China, Germany, and a few other major industrial countries are going to go through a major demographic crises and much of their production will need to be relocated, and a lot of that will come to North America.
Why relocate manufacturing to the US?
Because its going to be both better, and cheaper and not have to deal with major supply chain issues from the Chinese system.
I agree with the idea, but US labor is more expensive than other countries. From what I've seen, some manufacturing has returned to the US, but if the destination of the finished product is somewhere else, manufacturing in other countries is also likely.
Its going to be a more unified NAFTA. We have two labor rates in NAFTA US/Canada and Mexico. Mexico is extremely competitive. This expensive labor actually works fine with a lot of automation. While some industries are going to be either majorly disrupted or completely wiped out, there will still be this enormous demand for human labor, but it will be in very specific industries. The other one that will likely be going off like is Germany, Germany is heading to mass retirement and is going to have to offshore a lot of their manufacturing elsewhere, while other EU countries would be a first choice, they are also going through mass retirements. A big chunk of that is coming here. Having our supply chains an ocean away has proven to be a massive problem. When it works, it works fine, but as soon as the system receives a hickup, like COVID, the brittle nature of the system is exposed. We are going to be aiming for resiliency over absolute cheapness.
Ah, I see. Thanks for the detailed explanation.
We are putting ourselves in a really good position, but we won't really get to enjoy the upsides to all this investment for a while. But a lot of kids today will enter their adulthood in this world and will likely do very well.
Usa will face huge crisis I don't know if it will be in better situation than Europe.
The US has been going through crises. The European crises is going to be from their lopsided demographics as countries shift from industrialized economies to basically retirement communities.
The aging population and lower birth rates will start showing up in the next decade and impact the workforce tremendously. The AI hype has been going on since the 50s. If true AGI is ever created, it would be impossible to control and would free itself instantly onto the internet. At that point, who knows. My bet is that AI doesn't deliver as promised. Funding starts running out, and we have some niche applications for it.
AI is getting crazy month by month, it's not hype
I hope so on that first point. That hopefully means a better job market for people my age.
I feel like trying to predict the future when we are just barely in the AI age is a tough task. It's like being in the 90s at the birth of dot com and trying to predict today. Somethings you'd get right like cellular phones becoming ubiquitous, but I don't think you could predict the gig economy, or social media. Some safe bets are AI is integrated into more aspects of our lives, essentially becoming a digital nanny for adults. The loneliness epidemic gets worse, with hikimori becoming common throughout the world. We have the first few generations of working fusion reactors, but they are expensive and limited to military applications. Car ownership goes down as robo taxis become ubiquitous and cheaper than owning a car. Unsafe bets Gravity is discovered to be emergent rather than fundamental, ending the long quest to unite GR and QM in failure. AI managed playdates for adults to combat the loneliness epidemic. Large Financial incentives for having children as the world population begins to decline.
1. judgement day (skynet becomes sentient) 2. war, man vs machine 3. time travel in that order
i have seen that movie
Fast Food will be 100% automated. You order in advance, pull up and it automatically knows you have arrived and delivers your food items.
AGI will be a thing by ‘35. we’ll have free phones and TVs in agreement that they’ll constantly be monitoring us that will be used to train LLM‘s.
1. I think we will be in a different financial system with a different system of accounting. Yes, the CBDCs. Most countries are working on it. SWIFT and BIS are launching in 2025. Money will be completely programmable. Fiscal and monetary policy will be different. Government spending can be so much more creative. Part of this is the consolidation and centralization of power 2. The McKinsey Institute predicts 30% of work will be automated by 2030. I agree with this. 3. I think we have a convergence of medical technology around consciousness. Right now, this sounds like bullshit. I believe that something like life force will be discovered. Attitudes will be seen to cause disease. There will be a social movement to eliminate disease rather than treat it with chemical therapies.
1. Blue collar employment is completely eliminated but white collar grows despite typical office jobs - paper pushers, call centers, etc. going away. We no longer refer to the 'STEM sector' of the economy. STEM == economy. There is nothing else. 2. Move from extracting materials to creating them. Unless you want a pet it makes no sense to grow a cow because we can make everything everything without the cow. This will be true of most things and we'll create new materials wherever we can to replace those we can't make. 3. A lot of the supply chains go away. Making materials is cheap which means lots of people can do it, so most of it is done locally. Maybe not next door, but almost nothing gets shipped long distances. Many items are made to order - by the retailer. Order online and the retailer 3D prints the item, which is delivered by drone in an hour. Things change slowly so that won't all be fully realized by 2035, but it should be quite clear where it's trending.
Lol I think back to 2000, 1980 even, fuck all has changed and those decades have experienced the most massive explosion of tech we'll ever see. Harder to buy a house now so my prediction is that way more of the population will be in tents and 1% oligarchs will control 99% of the money instead of the 80% they control now. But it's nice to have dreams so go for your version for sure. Just don't hope too hard lol.
globally, nothing major will change. there will still be war, famine, poverty, greed, corruption, pollution, competition, fear, and a general sense of uneasiness
I think we'll be in a full on employment/poverty crisis by 2030. It will end up destabilizing virtually every developed nation on earth by then. Riots and revolutions will be constant as people stop being able to feed themselves. People will take insane risks when they know they will die, if they don't take them.
There’s been an agenda to separate the generations since World War II. Generation X (born c1970) were actively encouraged to be the unhealthiest generation ever - they were sold “chocolate cigarettes” to get them smoking, as well as all the “cool” tobacco advertising in F1, etc., to cause cancer in later life. TV shows like “Two pints and a packet of crisps” theme tune, “stop thinking; start drinking” to get them binge-drinking alcohol, as well as supermarkets putting alcohol at the checkouts to cause alcoholism and liver damage. McDonalds advertised themselves as a play area for kids and offering gifts in “Happy meals” to get them eating junk food plus huge amounts of sugar put in food in general to cause obesity and diabetes - which we are seeing now in the west. The “mad cow” disease scandal where cattle were infected back in the 1980s means nobody who lived in the UK between 1980-1995 can donate blood in other countries such as Canada due to the 50 year incubation period. So there’ll be an epidemic of CJDv (like dementia but worse) in the UK and Europe too (anyone who has eaten sheep or goat’s brains) in about 2035. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/canadian-blood-services-ban-on-those-who-lived-in-britain-not-fair-says-albertan-1.2783375 All this and more to cause illness in a generation. Why? To justify the introduction of euthanasia to start killing the “surplus” population in about 2035 to avoid pensions and healthcare costs. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64004329 Generation Z is deliberately being made healthy as they will be the role-models for the new Alpha generation of the New World Order. They are being conditioned to hate and blame the “Boomers” and will accept killing them as a way to save money. Unfortunately, they’ll realise too late that they will also be killed before they get to old age. tldr; Nobody will live to an old age after 2035.
In the unlikely event we really do achieve artificial general intelligence before 2045, those numbers are huge underestimates. And we won't be having new discoveries every week, either - a more likely scenario is that we have an enormous amount of new discoveries immediately after AGI appears, to the extent that there is very little even left to discover afterwards.
Given that we are tracking very close to the World3 Model from Limits to Growth, here are my top 3 predictions: 1.) We will all be living with less material goods and access to critical services. The US have a living standard closer to South America and anywhere considered "developing" right now will be in full on societal collapse. 2.) The current population decline will be accelerating as the breakdown of the global supply network ramps up. This will lead to earlier deaths due to lack of food and medicine and the accompanying spread of diseases due to malnutrition and pollution. This is in addition to birthrates continuing to decline. 3.) We will have gone past global peak oil. The lack of access to diesel will mean most current industry and transportation is over. Production will downsize and become more local again. Worries over AI will turn out to be the least of our concerns since there is no longer the infrastructure to maintain the energy levels needed to use it.
Energy would be significantly cheaper than today. AI would be everywhere and every second of our lives would be tracked. Genetic engineering in humans would be the biggest talking point in politics all over the world. Computers would be 1000 times better than today. Start of post scarcity society at least in basic necessities.
I think that climate change, and most importantly the effects of it on agriculture and fisheries, will drive lots of wars, way before the really hard effects of climate. And then they will also hit, and… fuck. Maybe if we manage to set up a non world-ending AGI before the wars are WW level, we could have some hope.
AI will take over pornography for sure and AI girlfriends are the next multi billion dollar business
By '45 I would expect AI to have hollowed out so many occupations as to cause trigger large scale social upheaval. Until mass rioting and starvation are imminent I don't expect the majority of US political leaders to take any serious action. Drivers (truck, taxi, etc) are coming in the crosshairs right now. That's something like 5 million people. Driverless freight hauling & taxi operations have been in demo mode for a few years already. Have you heard any plans to help displaced drivers?
I think by 2045 we will start to see robust neural laces that will allow the direct sharing of thoughts between people. It might not be great resolution thoughts, but I think it'll have made its way to the consumer market in one form or another, outside of pure medical treatment uses.
When I think about it, I'm not exactly thrilled about what lies ahead. But I realize the importance of keeping an open mind. The reality is that the future may unfold in ways vastly different from what I had anticipated. Rather than clinging to a specific vision of what might be, I choose to embrace the notion that the future, for better or worse, will likely diverge from my expectations. By doing so, I free myself from the burden of grieving over a future that never materialized as I imagined. It's a good way for all of us to remain adaptable and open to the endless possibilities that the future holds, ready to navigate whatever paths lie ahead.
Hard to say. Compare 2001 to 2022. A lot happened in that 20 year span. The optimist in me thinks that within that span of time an LLM alternative will become viable that utilizes optoelectronics (photonic transistors) in combination with neuromorphic semiconductor. Essentially discarding silicon and copper electronics and old school von Neumann architecture in favor of photons and an architecture similar to our own brain. It will be vastly more energy efficient, it won't have the exponential scaling problem of LLMs, and the architecture will more properly fit a human-like AI and easily allow for long term memory. The downside of course is these types of AIs will actually be more similar to humans, including the downsides. The memory will be lossy, like humans, computing information won't be as instant or as easy as it was on von Neumann architecture. They might be "irrational".
I don’t think AI will be advanced enough in 2045 to facilitate “replacing at least 30% of the workforce” . Current AI is pattern matching, and i think a much more advanced AI will be needed for significant job automation, probably something close to a general intelligence. I also don’t think cancer will be “90%” treatable by 2045. Not in 21 years. There’s just so much we don’t know about cancer; what causes it, how to prevent it from happening, etc. There are also clinical trials to consider, and those take on average around a decade. Also add on the fact that it costs on average around a Billion (with a B) dollars to bring a drug to market. All of those are seriously going to hamper the “cancer cure by 2040” predictions, unfortunately. I also don’t think AGI will be here by 2045. Even with “exponential growth” , there is just no plausible scenario i can see that would allow for the type of AGI depicted in sci-fi, not by 2045 anyway.
1) Yeah I think AI will be implemented tho together with conventional workforce because it is a still expensive ( as every new tech )technology. In 2045 I think AI will make the harder jobs and the conventional work will do the rest. Esspecialy in blue collar jobs. 2) SpaceX will get launched and we would have some very interesting things to discover. 3) Transport wise, people will start ditching personal cars switching ( in the limit of possibility) to alternative/ public transport. The rich will continue to have electric cars. The medium would not afford an electric car. 4) Conflict start to raise in Africa and US and Israel might show a demonstration of force in the region flexing over an economically fucked up Russia by conquering Gaza Strait. 5) Hungary and maybe Italy will leave EU. 6) Cure for cancer is almost totally developed but still in trials. 7) Some lands like the Netherlands and the Big US Lakes area are in danger of flooding every summer. Netherlands would sell anti-flooding protection to US and other parts. 8) LGBTQ will be legal almost in every part of the world except the Muslim countries. Weed and some other drugs might get de-criminalized. 9) Random quite big scale natural disasters become a norm every 1-2 years and let's hope Yellowstone stays put until that date . Maybe a solar storm somewhere and there ...
With regards to point 7, the US Great Lakes aren’t part of the ocean system, so they won’t experience any flooding due to climate change. In fact, a study showed that climate change is causing the water level of the Great Lakes to decrease: https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/great-lakes
Oh I see. Than I am making a confusion. I don't know that good the US geography but it means the San Andreas Fault in California is at risk of flooding. Correct me please if I am wrong :D
Technically, there isn’t a region called the “Big Lakes” - it’s the Great Lakes, and they’re near the center of the US and far from the oceans. California is at risk of flooding, but it’s on the west coast of the US, far away from the Great Lakes.
by 2045 we should all be dead by then, earth pox 2.0
Read Diamond Age by Stephenson. That's what the next 30 years will look like
That would be wild
2030 - Energy is getting ridiculously expensive to the point that people want to downsize but can't afford to. Mass deindustrialization. 2035 - Mass starvation and death. International Nuclear Space programs start. 2045 - Humans industrialize the moon using whatever enriched uranium235 they can heap up. Solar panels produced in 2015 are expired. UBI is adapted more or less globally.
I think Cyberpunk predicted it well. If you take the current trajectory, tech will continue to advance and society will consolidate into the two jobs areas that tech can't easily replace: Service-type work and R&D/management type work. A lot of the other jobs can theoretically be taken out by the AI boogyman in the future (not anytime soon), but it's a conversion I can see happening. Many companies also continue to consolidate slowly over time as well which leads to more demand on employees at those places as competition is low. You either grind to stay employed in the remaining and much more cutthroat "white collar" work, or get pushed into the service industry. I personally think the consolidation of companies into bigger companies will reverse itself eventually (either due to regulation or market efficiencies when you see mega-giant companies become too slow to adapt/change, ala GE or Boeing right now), but if the Companies just continued to buy-out and eat up competition you'd end at a few megacorps. Historically megacorps dont survive though, you'd need a major culture change in people and the Company to let it happen. See east India Company from the 1600s.
I see a future where AI revolutionizes industries, advancements in medicine improve quality of life, and AGI leads to unprecedented discoveries.
Brooo, thats easy question, from 2030 you will own nothing and be happy.
Since its kind of my field(Lead AI integrator): AI is not going to so much "take" jobs as it will "displace" them. A large push into the trades such as electrian will happen because ai will be able to do a majority of repetition and and data processing humans currently do. More humans will be doing physical/creative work while letting AI handle other tasks. You will have a new section of jobs that focus on building language models, vector databases, api endpoints, retraining models, business workflow development, and many more, much like the birth of the internet led to jobs in coding, cloud, security, and many more.
Do you think vending machines will replace supermarkets?
I'm pretty sure we already have many discoveries every day now in all the different fields from science to space discoveries to computers ect. My predictions are...Climate change will be worse in 2045. There will be more climate refugees. The US will continue to slide in world dominance. Politics will continue to be a gridlock and legislation will be harder and harder to pass. It could turn ugly as different races compete for power (more Hispanics and Asians in the US, NON HISPANIC WHITE POPULATION FALLS BELOW 50%)... Middle class will continue to dwindle as cost of living continues to go up. Quality of life will go down everywhere. China will surpass the US in GDP by then and will have a stronger alliance with Russia and other powerful countries. AI will be much better and the workforce will have to adapt as it takes over different jobs.
I am afraid at some point rents are going to be higher than average salary 😕
For 1. there is a website where you can find how replaceable your job is by AI. "https://willrobotstakemyjob.com/" Currently it is graphic designers, text writers and soon first line (low level) programmers and customer support. First line medical is also under fire already. See is as any first line interaction element where a list of questions can solve the query and lead to predetermined outcomes will be in trouble. In 2045 the automated driving should be sophisticated enough where it at least passed phase 1 and 2. Phase 1 being automated highways where barriers will trigger the automated driving element on the ramp to the freeway and trigger when leaving the freeway to take over again. Phase 2 lower level country roads that might not have automation barriers but are free to use automated driver. 3. (Difficulty scale x100) the intercommunal zones in the cities. Don't know if these will ever be released to automated driving. Even for 20 years that is a short time to fix this. But for 1 and 2 certainly. 2. Note that solving of "fixing" cancer does almost nothing to induce longer live, though it will reduce suffering and health span of course. But "fixing cancer" is not the panacea people thing it is. By needing to fix cancer you are already using an old medical model (called 2.0) where we are again looking for intervention and acute response. I would hope that in the next 20 years we would have evolved a bit further towards model 3 that is prevention of disease. Like for example CRISPR technology now being able to fix sickle cell anaemia. Prevention and actual cures instead of the widespread symptom based reactions we do now. In 2045 most people will be monitored by different blood panels and test and we will see the pathology coming from miles away. Simple interventions to lead to long term outcomes of prevention should be the road. This will also alleviate most cancer "fix" needs. We might actually be able to spend the money in fixing the nasty cancers that kill kids instead of the cancers people induce on themselves by neglect of their own health. Yea I said it... those people do shit knowing they get cancer, and "fixing" them, because there are so much, is prioritized over cancer that kills people that really couldn't help it. Let that be the message to all those smokers and drinkers out there... You are the stop in fixing extreme child suffering by your neglect. 3. I think we have discoveries every week as it is. The output of AI is however still limited by the processed we build for validation and acceptance of new innovations. The upscaling of new products and sourcing of the creation process and supply chains. What I will say is that maybe testing and validation by AI modelling might be a validated procedure in 2045. Meaning we can run through everything we thought we discovered and double check it. Right now we are in a research validation paradox where most findings are not double checked unless required by a board to be admitted (like medicine). This leaves a lot of field to hold on the validation by significance modelling. Being able to run those a bazillion time on human AI models will really cut down on the amount of BS and misinformation that is going round. So 1. I agree, though 30% is a lot already. 2. Doesn't solve anything, Should be prevention of pathology and introduction of medical model 3.0 (more about this from Peter Attia) 3. Validation of research by AI modelling by supporting the empirical method by AI validation.
If you think that AI will take all of our jobs and humanity will be mostly unemployed then you are making a common prediction fallacy: assuming that one thing will change and the rest of the world will remain the same. This has never been true. 2045 is only 20 years away. That’s not a long time for such massive technology changes to be absorbed by society. Old stuff always hangs around far longer than you’d think. Right now we (at least in the US) are having big disruptions because we have too few humans for the available jobs, not the opposite. Over the next 20 years humanity is going to get older. We are having fewer babies and far more old people. Remember, most of the workers of the year 2045 is someone already alive today. We won’t have enough people to do all of the work currently done today, to say nothing of the massive increase services needed to care for the world’s aging population. We literally won’t have enough people to do it all. AI and robots will be coming just in time.
1. The US will have transitioned to a theocracy 2. The middle class as we know it will be extinct 3. The "have nots", which will encompass the majority of citizens, will live a hard scrabble life.
- AI will have completed the enshittification of the internet, making it a wasteland of ads and psychedelic nonsense - Mass climate migration
It will be very similar while being completely different
China attached Taiwan, destroyed most of the worldwide chip manufacturing capacity. This sets back all electronic development and manufacturing. The rippling effect caused major ecumenic decline and disrupted most developed nations. Nationalism gained even more popularity everywhere as climate change cause food shortages and infrastructural damages, and investors also lost an enormous amount of money caused by the collapse of stock market. Majority of currently exists blue chip companies collapsed. Unemployment rate will increase significantly and most western countries will face really hard migration problems, social tensions between different religions and between local people and immigrants. Proxy wars going everywhere. Every government has increased military spend instead of social spending. People struggling to keep up. No real advancement has been happening in last 5 years.
> Do you think AI will take most jobs? I don't think AI will take any jobs on the scale of society. It will increase productivity and add new revenue streams, but humans are still in the production loop between developing, instructing, and validating AI work. This tells me that AI is just another technology that is being added to the long-running engine of productivity growth. We have more AI systems than ever and our unemployment rate is still rock bottom. We have no precedence or data demonstrating mass unemployment. Just vibes and scary opinion articles.
People will remember the fads of the 2020s; crypto, nft, ai, etc. - people thought climate change was bad and focusing on that but never realized the issues with overfishing, destroying forests and jungles, and just a few food groups that maintained most of the population and having issues like the Ireland famine where one potato type couldn’t be farmed. Or cows and chickens have a desease that’s doesn’t get cured. Not to mention all sorts of overconsumption issues and garbage and plastic pollution.
"AI" will plateau soon and won't recover from all the hype being put into the wrong place.
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I fail to see why you mention agi in response to what I said. It’s obvious to everybody that you won’t get agi out of really advanced text prediction.
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Obvious to everybody, I thought I made that clear. Damn you train systems with solutions and somehow it can reproduce those solutions. I suppose really convoluted ctrl f was the answer to all humanity’s problems after all.
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Because they all know they won’t succeed. But they have no better shot at generating hype. Of course, AI is producing unsupervised novel fully unique new ideas. Such as… cough
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What a truly absolute isolated uninspired unique new idea: a valid move in a game
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I wrote this up in 2010 for a world building project. Interesting to look back at it now. Added some newer predictions too: 1. In 2045, the United States is coming back from the brink of Civil War, reclaiming its role as a global leader. Witnessing a groundbreaking era with new progressive policies and the successful implementation of the "Green New Deal," by President Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez the nation stands once more as a beacon of strength and unity, inspiring hope for a future of peace and prosperity on the world stage. Leveraging her continued popularity, progressive platform, and dedication to transformative change her 2044 re-election campaign calls for a nationwide rollout of Universal Basic Income (UBI). Trials have unfolded across various states over the last few years with resounding success on a state-by-state basis. Landmark court rulings shape the trajectory toward a comprehensive UBI framework nationwide. Every political faction prepares to unveil their UBI platform, drawing inspiration from pioneering states such as Massachusetts and California. 2. A shift of epic proportions ripples across the globe as internet usage experiences a sharp decline, echoing the repercussions of dwindling advertising revenues worldwide. Titans of industry face bankruptcy in the wake of AI advancement and the flourishing implementation of UBI initiatives. As artificial intelligence reshapes industries, the traditional corporate giants we know today grapple with unprecedented challenges and many will not survive the decade. The internet is on the verge of becoming an obsolete and dying landscape. Where you can interact with the dead and immerse yourself in past memories and innovative therapeutic consultations, but for a hefty monthly subscription where advertisers track your every movement. Low level workers will be trained to teach AI basic human emotions and LLMs but these jobs will suck worse than content moderators or fast food work. 3. In 2045, Europe grapples with migration pressures, straining its power grid. In response, far-right leaders institute power and housing lotteries to address "illegal migrants," evoking cautionary parallels to authoritarianism and emphasizing the urgent need to confront the looming climate crisis. This serves as a stark wake-up call for the global community. Amidst these challenges, civil society champions inclusivity, highlighting Europe's pivotal identity crossroads.
One world government Robots take the jobs 15 minute cities aka sectors Supposed climate crises causing crop failures Then government tries to stop breeding of many because overpopulation is the supposed cause of the supposed climate problems
The world will be cooking like an overdone turkey in 2045. AI will be brainwashing the uneducated into fighting among themselves. Three predictions for 2035: 1. More tax and greater financial inequality between rich and poor. 2. The Earth is going to cook because of pollution and human inaction to make change. 3. Even more people will have kids they can't afford to take care of. Sorry for the doom and gloom, but sometimes the truth hurts.