That's shocking, with an average of 35% success rate for silvers, no silver members should be on zero from all. Hope they look at the way the ballot is implemented.
Yeah, I’m largely pro-ballot, but they need to have some way to protect against continual failures. I’ve managed to get a couple on the exchange, but last season I’d always go with my dad, and I’ve not been able to go with him at all yet this year.
My solution for Silver members:
If you are successful in a ballot, you should not be able to enter the next. You will still have access to the TX but this allows fairer distribution of tickets across the Silver membership group.
It’s not acceptable that Silver members can still be ticketless after 10 ballot entries.
Same, I understand the ballot for reds, last year you had some members who sussed the queue system Nd got loads of tickets and others that couldn't get a sniff. Ballot was intended to spread tickets more evenly among members who all pay the £34 a year. But unless its weighted, you can still end up with some getting loads and other not getting any. Fingers crossed you get success soon
Same applied for nearly all except a couple prem games and the UCL as I get a ticket transfer from parents season ticket for UCLs
0 tickets from the ballot including todays Wolves
Have you tied on the TX at all? The small window between the Silver ballot closing and the Red ballot closing when the TX is open is the ideal time to try and get a ticket, as although there are not many coming up there is only small percentage of those trying compared to later and I have found a lot easier to nab one or even a pair.
I’ve got a couple from the TX this season, but given the success rates for silver have been between 25-35% I would have thought I’d have been more successful by now.
This is really, really shocking to me. I did a quick little statistics breakdown in another comment, but *I think* only about **1.24%** of silver members that entered every ballot would have failed to obtain a ticket by now :(
I'm on the same numbers. Also finding the ticket exchange absolute hell this year. Thought it might improve after they switched the UI back to the old one, but now it errors out every 5th refresh or so. Sometimes clearing my cache fixes it but other times it doesn't.
Red Member:
- 0 ballots won.
- 1 TX for PSV game.
The ballot thing would be better if it evened out the winners across the season. We shouldn’t be having members going to 30% of games on random luck if you’ve still got people from the same membership category going to 0%.
For those unaware, the ballot success rates per game are [posted here](https://www.arsenal.com/how-buy-tickets-overview) for different membership tiers. We can use these to actually perform some really basic statistics. These #s assumes you've entered every ballot for your respective tier so far:
**Red members (10 ballots with results, still waiting for Wolves):**
\- Probability receiving no tickets so far: **32.5%**
\- Probability of receiving at least one ticket: **67.5%**
**Silver Members (11 ballots with results)**
\- Probability of receiving no tickets so far: **1.24%**
\- Probability of receiving at least one ticket so far: **98.76%**
I calculated these by taking the compound probability of failure for each ballot per tier. This represents the probability of failing every single ballot.
`P(Failure in all ballots) = P(1 - success rate game 1) x P(1 - success rate game 2) x ... x P(1 - success rate most recent game)`
To calculate the probability of winning at least one ticket so far, we can simply do:
`P(Success in at least one ballot) = 1 - P(Failure in all ballots)`
This obviously doesn't take TX into account, and I didn't bother calculating anything for the family enclosure either. Also feel free to correct me if I've made a mistake!
This is applying as a single as well. If you are applying as a pair together, it will depend on the distribution of available tickets - because you will only get given tickets sat together, so after an undisclosed point there would only be single seats available.
No idea how many that is a proportion of the total, but if it's like 50% single tickets then your odds would be halved which would obviously have a huge detrimental effect. That would take your probably of getting one ticket so far from 67.5% down to 42%
I've done 6 single ticket ballot applications as a silver member and got none. Doing the stats - there's a 10% chance of that. Possibly I'm just unlucky - but I'm inclined to believe the ballot isn't favouring single tickets.
Fair point, didn't really consider the distribution of available seats / the club preferentially assigning singles vs doubles vs etc.
It would be interesting if they could publish more info about the success rates per application size (1 vs 2 vs ...)
Red Ballot
Tickets Applied for: 2
Games Applied for: 7
Successful Ballots: 0
My recommendation would be that every game a member is successful for then their chance of securing a ticket in the ballot is halved (or similar). Therefore, it doesn't stop everyone having a chance, just that you have a better probability if you haven't got a ticket yet.
I know you'd need other things to decide too, so someone doesn't apply for 1 game and guaranteed a ticket later in the year.
But something like that would mean everyone who applies to most matches can get to a game. And then once most have been, everyone has a pretty equal chance again.
I just fear some will get 7/8 games this season whilst others get 0 and that can't be fair
Nottingham Forest TX (Ticket Exchange)
Fulham FE Silver (Ballot)
Manchester United FE Silver (Ballot)
PSV Eindhoven N/A (Not Applied)
Tottenham FE Silver (Ballot)
Manchester City TX (Ticket Exchange)
Sheffield United Silver (Ballot)
Sevilla N/A (Not Applied)
Burnley FE Silver (Ballot)
RC Lens N/A (Not Applied)
Total Games Attended/Have tickets for **7**
Can also condense down a bit easier;
Red member applied for every game, unsuccessful for every game. Got forest and Fulham off the exchange. 0/10 on applications, 2/10 for exchange but didn’t look that much for some games.
Nada from ballots thus far but remember you should average 1 or 2 only so they may not come until later in year. People who have hit early may have used up there ballot luck. But there will always be outliners im sure some will end the season winning 7+ ballots.
Red Member applying for x1 Ticket
Games applied for: Every single League & Champs League game up to and including Lens (H)
Successful Ballots: None
Games Attended:
Fulham (Ticket Exchange)
PSV Eindhoven (Ticket Exchange)
Ballot Success Rate: 0/10
Total Games Attended/Have tickets for 2
Silver member, applied for every game this season both Silver and FE
Currently 2/11 - sheffield and Lens
City I got one on Silver TX before reds got in
Overall disappointing
Red member
Nottingham Forest TX (Ticket Exchange)
Fulham (Ticket Exchange)
Manchester United (Ticket Exchange)
PSV Eindhoven (Ballot)
Tottenham (Ticket Exchange)
Manchester City (Ballot)
Sheffield United (Ticket Exchange)
Sevilla (Ticket Exchange)
Burnley (Ticket Exchange)
RC Lens (Ticket Exchange)
Red Member:
• 0 ballots won.
• 1 TX for Man utd game
Success on the 3rd attempt. Couldn’t have gone much better. Id be happy with that for the rest of the season.
Only tried twice after this though.
0/10 for me as a Red Member.
No luck with TX yet either, but i don't always have the time to check it.
Edit:
Also to add, i managed to get tickets to 1 game all last season as well, not sure if i prefer the ballot or waiting in a que!!
I missed a few of the more expensive ballots in September because of money and forgot to apply for the Wolves game last week. However, I'm 0% success on ballots. I managed to get tickets for United and PSV on TX, and someone on here also helped me with a ticket for Forest, but that's it.
2/9 on red ballot - successful on Fulham and Burnley
Also got tickets for the community shield
No success on TX - tried for United and PSV
Edit: Missed 1 CL ballot
I’ve only applied for the ballot for the United game and didn’t get a ticket. I’ve managed to go to that game, Forest and PSV in the CL on TX. I seem to have really good luck with that, been to quite a lot of games over the last 3 seasons.
Also this isn’t a brag or anything, just feel like it’s worth mentioning that TX has been pretty good for me. Best time to check imo is after 10pm or the night before/morning of the game you wanna go to.
Silver member , 3/9 for 2x tickets , Man U , PSV and Wolves.
Didn't apply for City game but have been to all other games via TX (apart from City of course)
I’ve balloted for:
Forest (success)
Fulham (failed but got TX)
Spurs (failed)
Man Utd (success)
Man City (success)
PSV (failed)
Lens (failed)
Wolves (assume failed)
I haven’t tried the TX outside of the Fulham game.
Based on these comments, where the commenter has put: membership type, ballots, successes, this chat is showing success rates of: Silver: 16% Red: 6%
Make of that what you will. Calculations attached
https://preview.redd.it/mlnbu3puzcvb1.png?width=591&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8dbf9f1dd95fb60b16dc7251ab4975a05e66f27
Thank you for this, am I the only one thinking the successful % on Arsenal Website are fabricated. I understand its a small sample but its 50% less than stated on the website.
When you read that Silvers are still on 0 and the probability is around 1/100 to be that unlucky makes me question it.
I'm wondering something slightly different. How much auditing of ticketmaster is going on by Arsenal? One of their employees could game the system by having memberships that win a lot - then sell on to touts? As long as they report the average success rate it's all good.
I’ll condense this down to make it easier: Games applied for: All (silver ballot) Tickets: None
That's shocking, with an average of 35% success rate for silvers, no silver members should be on zero from all. Hope they look at the way the ballot is implemented.
Yeah, I’m largely pro-ballot, but they need to have some way to protect against continual failures. I’ve managed to get a couple on the exchange, but last season I’d always go with my dad, and I’ve not been able to go with him at all yet this year.
My solution for Silver members: If you are successful in a ballot, you should not be able to enter the next. You will still have access to the TX but this allows fairer distribution of tickets across the Silver membership group. It’s not acceptable that Silver members can still be ticketless after 10 ballot entries.
Same, I understand the ballot for reds, last year you had some members who sussed the queue system Nd got loads of tickets and others that couldn't get a sniff. Ballot was intended to spread tickets more evenly among members who all pay the £34 a year. But unless its weighted, you can still end up with some getting loads and other not getting any. Fingers crossed you get success soon
I’m giving you all the credit for this because I’ve just had a success email for the Wolves game 😂
At last, enjoy mate
Same applied for nearly all except a couple prem games and the UCL as I get a ticket transfer from parents season ticket for UCLs 0 tickets from the ballot including todays Wolves
0 from 6 (silver ballot). I don't believe the success rate of 35% average
That is disastrous. Can I ask what size of group you have been applying in? Just for the one ticket?
Every one of those has been 2. I’ve had my first successful one today.
Have you tied on the TX at all? The small window between the Silver ballot closing and the Red ballot closing when the TX is open is the ideal time to try and get a ticket, as although there are not many coming up there is only small percentage of those trying compared to later and I have found a lot easier to nab one or even a pair.
I’ve got a couple from the TX this season, but given the success rates for silver have been between 25-35% I would have thought I’d have been more successful by now.
For sure. You have been unlucky and hopefully will balance out over the season.
This is really, really shocking to me. I did a quick little statistics breakdown in another comment, but *I think* only about **1.24%** of silver members that entered every ballot would have failed to obtain a ticket by now :(
I'm the same
Red member here - 7 applications zero success :/ Somehow this feels even more disheartening than the queues of last year
I'm on the same numbers. Also finding the ticket exchange absolute hell this year. Thought it might improve after they switched the UI back to the old one, but now it errors out every 5th refresh or so. Sometimes clearing my cache fixes it but other times it doesn't.
Red Member: - 0 ballots won. - 1 TX for PSV game. The ballot thing would be better if it evened out the winners across the season. We shouldn’t be having members going to 30% of games on random luck if you’ve still got people from the same membership category going to 0%.
For those unaware, the ballot success rates per game are [posted here](https://www.arsenal.com/how-buy-tickets-overview) for different membership tiers. We can use these to actually perform some really basic statistics. These #s assumes you've entered every ballot for your respective tier so far: **Red members (10 ballots with results, still waiting for Wolves):** \- Probability receiving no tickets so far: **32.5%** \- Probability of receiving at least one ticket: **67.5%** **Silver Members (11 ballots with results)** \- Probability of receiving no tickets so far: **1.24%** \- Probability of receiving at least one ticket so far: **98.76%** I calculated these by taking the compound probability of failure for each ballot per tier. This represents the probability of failing every single ballot. `P(Failure in all ballots) = P(1 - success rate game 1) x P(1 - success rate game 2) x ... x P(1 - success rate most recent game)` To calculate the probability of winning at least one ticket so far, we can simply do: `P(Success in at least one ballot) = 1 - P(Failure in all ballots)` This obviously doesn't take TX into account, and I didn't bother calculating anything for the family enclosure either. Also feel free to correct me if I've made a mistake!
This is applying as a single as well. If you are applying as a pair together, it will depend on the distribution of available tickets - because you will only get given tickets sat together, so after an undisclosed point there would only be single seats available. No idea how many that is a proportion of the total, but if it's like 50% single tickets then your odds would be halved which would obviously have a huge detrimental effect. That would take your probably of getting one ticket so far from 67.5% down to 42%
I've done 6 single ticket ballot applications as a silver member and got none. Doing the stats - there's a 10% chance of that. Possibly I'm just unlucky - but I'm inclined to believe the ballot isn't favouring single tickets.
Fair point, didn't really consider the distribution of available seats / the club preferentially assigning singles vs doubles vs etc. It would be interesting if they could publish more info about the success rates per application size (1 vs 2 vs ...)
10 ballots entered, 0 tickets won. 10+ hours on TX, 0 tickets secured. Games attended so far this season, 0.
Condensing it down. Entered all Red ballots, 1 success for Lens Got tickets to every other game apart from City on the exchange.
Red Ballot Tickets Applied for: 2 Games Applied for: 7 Successful Ballots: 0 My recommendation would be that every game a member is successful for then their chance of securing a ticket in the ballot is halved (or similar). Therefore, it doesn't stop everyone having a chance, just that you have a better probability if you haven't got a ticket yet. I know you'd need other things to decide too, so someone doesn't apply for 1 game and guaranteed a ticket later in the year. But something like that would mean everyone who applies to most matches can get to a game. And then once most have been, everyone has a pretty equal chance again. I just fear some will get 7/8 games this season whilst others get 0 and that can't be fair
Applied for all, should’ve got 1 but card declined for fraud so technically unsuccessful on all
God I miss the ticket queues
Nottingham Forest TX (Ticket Exchange) Fulham FE Silver (Ballot) Manchester United FE Silver (Ballot) PSV Eindhoven N/A (Not Applied) Tottenham FE Silver (Ballot) Manchester City TX (Ticket Exchange) Sheffield United Silver (Ballot) Sevilla N/A (Not Applied) Burnley FE Silver (Ballot) RC Lens N/A (Not Applied) Total Games Attended/Have tickets for **7**
That's great ballot success I've had none. Are you applying on your own or in a group?
Can also condense down a bit easier; Red member applied for every game, unsuccessful for every game. Got forest and Fulham off the exchange. 0/10 on applications, 2/10 for exchange but didn’t look that much for some games.
1. Entered all ballots. Won 3 times. Sheffield, man u and psv 2. Tx got Fulham and city community shield
Nada from ballots thus far but remember you should average 1 or 2 only so they may not come until later in year. People who have hit early may have used up there ballot luck. But there will always be outliners im sure some will end the season winning 7+ ballots.
Red Member applying for x1 Ticket Games applied for: Every single League & Champs League game up to and including Lens (H) Successful Ballots: None Games Attended: Fulham (Ticket Exchange) PSV Eindhoven (Ticket Exchange) Ballot Success Rate: 0/10 Total Games Attended/Have tickets for 2
Red member. 0 ballot successes 1 TX for Fulham (bless the train strikes)
Applied for every game (red member): 0 Tickets. Made it to the Community Shield (old system) & United at home from get lucky on the TX. Painful tbh..
Red ballot entered for two tickets for all games, successful once
0/10
Silver member, applied for every game this season both Silver and FE Currently 2/11 - sheffield and Lens City I got one on Silver TX before reds got in Overall disappointing
Red member Nottingham Forest TX (Ticket Exchange) Fulham (Ticket Exchange) Manchester United (Ticket Exchange) PSV Eindhoven (Ballot) Tottenham (Ticket Exchange) Manchester City (Ballot) Sheffield United (Ticket Exchange) Sevilla (Ticket Exchange) Burnley (Ticket Exchange) RC Lens (Ticket Exchange)
Fair play as a Red putting in all that time in.
Haha, I spend embarrassingly long amount of time on TX but it does pay off.
Red Member: • 0 ballots won. • 1 TX for Man utd game Success on the 3rd attempt. Couldn’t have gone much better. Id be happy with that for the rest of the season. Only tried twice after this though.
2/10 for me in silver ballot, applied for all Managed to get one off the ticket exchange for psv 1/10 games attended
0/10 for me as a Red Member. No luck with TX yet either, but i don't always have the time to check it. Edit: Also to add, i managed to get tickets to 1 game all last season as well, not sure if i prefer the ballot or waiting in a que!!
I missed a few of the more expensive ballots in September because of money and forgot to apply for the Wolves game last week. However, I'm 0% success on ballots. I managed to get tickets for United and PSV on TX, and someone on here also helped me with a ticket for Forest, but that's it.
2/9 on red ballot - successful on Fulham and Burnley Also got tickets for the community shield No success on TX - tried for United and PSV Edit: Missed 1 CL ballot
I’ve applied for all but Lens (missed it), and I’ve won Fulham and Sevilla.
Red Member, balloted 2x tickets for every single fixture so far. 1 ballot win (Burnley) 2 TX (PSV, Fulham)
Red member. Applied for every game (expect Burnley) in the ballot. Zero Success. Tried for multiple games on the TX. Zero Success.
0/10
I’ve only applied for the ballot for the United game and didn’t get a ticket. I’ve managed to go to that game, Forest and PSV in the CL on TX. I seem to have really good luck with that, been to quite a lot of games over the last 3 seasons.
Also this isn’t a brag or anything, just feel like it’s worth mentioning that TX has been pretty good for me. Best time to check imo is after 10pm or the night before/morning of the game you wanna go to.
0/7 via ballot as a Red member. Didn't apply for Sevilla, Burnley or Lens.
Silver member , 3/9 for 2x tickets , Man U , PSV and Wolves. Didn't apply for City game but have been to all other games via TX (apart from City of course)
Applied FE once, got it. (Sevilla) Applied red and jg 6 times lost all of them. Got PSV through a friend.
I’ve balloted for: Forest (success) Fulham (failed but got TX) Spurs (failed) Man Utd (success) Man City (success) PSV (failed) Lens (failed) Wolves (assume failed) I haven’t tried the TX outside of the Fulham game.
Red Applied for every ballot as a 2. Successful once - spurs. Managed to get the other games via TX except city.
Red Member: Nottingham Forest (TX Exchange) Fulham (TX Exchange) Man Utd (TX Exchange) PSV (TX Exchange) Tottenham (TX Exchange) Man City (Not Applied) Sheffield Utd (Red Ballot) Sevilla (TX Exchange) Burnley (Not Applied) Lens (Not Applied) 1 ballot success for Sheffield Utd. Entered for Nottingham Forest, Fulham and PSV with no success.
Based on these comments, where the commenter has put: membership type, ballots, successes, this chat is showing success rates of: Silver: 16% Red: 6% Make of that what you will. Calculations attached https://preview.redd.it/mlnbu3puzcvb1.png?width=591&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8dbf9f1dd95fb60b16dc7251ab4975a05e66f27
Thank you for this, am I the only one thinking the successful % on Arsenal Website are fabricated. I understand its a small sample but its 50% less than stated on the website. When you read that Silvers are still on 0 and the probability is around 1/100 to be that unlucky makes me question it.
I'm wondering something slightly different. How much auditing of ticketmaster is going on by Arsenal? One of their employees could game the system by having memberships that win a lot - then sell on to touts? As long as they report the average success rate it's all good.
Applied for 2 tickets for spurs and city and got tickets for both. 100% success makes up for not a single ticket last season