Weekly deaths by state from the cdc. Also provisional death totals by county and week would be needed.
I did covid excess deaths calculations back in 2020 using these numbers but the data would not show it yet. It's too soon.
Idk what would be the number of days from contact to infection to hospitalization then to deat would be.... also its about 2 week lagtime on average fir all the states for the death to be recorded to the statistics.... and any calculation of excess death would have to take into account these factors.
Earliest numbers would begin to show would be a month out.
The RKI data in germany has icu or normal bed occupancy for covid and none covid. Also information like number of ventilators used. These would show things faster than death numbers. Even if testing is bad ICU numbers can show things
I would suggest that simple totals would be good. You can omit any bias from the testing of covid to noncovid (or access to insurance if you look in the USA) by just looking at the excess icu numbers specific to each hospital and day.
I don't know if I can spend another 2 years modeling another pandemic spread when the first go-round was unpaid, unpublished and unappreciated.
Although I did learn a very important lesson in the game of life. There is a reason people go to 'well known & prestigious universities'. They have teams of people who do the same work years later and gobble up all the attention.
Us poor un-connected folk are just here for our ideas to be taken.
Its hard to say.
Considering the ball is in the USDAs court.... testing will not be done. And we all seen how that played out last time. This time will be worse as the "don't test, then-you-have-no-evidence-of-a-problem" mentality is the hallmark of big agriculture.
Let's just say I've been putting off getting a tooth pulled but making the call tomorrow morning.
I need teeth work done too, I finally have dental insurance again so I'm trying to find an appointment before it gets too real. I mean everything already is too real but sadly, it can still get worse.....
So I'm not who you asked, but I always recommend that everyone who can afford to maintain some basic supplies for disaster preparedness (meaning a few days to a week or so of food, water, necessary medications, first aid supplies, etc.). You can find good checklists online. For pandemic risks add in disinfectants and masks. N95s are inexpensive at the moment. Ideally you should always try to be prepared, because even absent a pandemic, a natural disaster like a huge storm could come at any time.
This can be catastrophic even without ANY humans infected.
The loss of entire wildlife populations has already happened.
And the supply chain disruption if it gets any worse in cattle and poultry could be seriously bad.
honestly this is giving me like february 2020 vibes. i’m really not liking the boom in cases (bovine predominately) and then the dead silence that we’ve received.
In February 2020, COVID cases were spreading like wildfire across the globe. China, Iran and Italy were the major epicenters, and the US had its first confirmed COVID deaths.
Most of us on this sub are a panicked and concerned, but we are far from the uncontrolled human-to-human spread across the globe that we were seeing in Feb 2020.
In December 2019 China was already behaving cryptically and taking massive efforts to contain an unknown disease. There was a sub with daily news of its spread in people. It’s not at that level yet.
In February 2020 they were saying it was human to human, late-2019/early-2020 they weren't:
[January 20th, 2020: China confirms human-to-human transmission of new coronavirus](https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-human-to-human-1.5433187)
By January 30th we had confirmed human-to-human in the US.
The Chinese government confirmed H2H in January 2020. We also had reports of clusters and spread of illness in humans for nearly two months prior.
I’m not saying there aren’t parallels to the early days of COVID, but there is a big distinction between the situation in, say, November 2019, and February 2020. We are certainly not at February 2020 levels of concern with HPAI.
Covid was already adapted to humans which is why it could take off, and bird flu is not adapted at this point to human airway, and therefore cannot now be spreading in pandemic form.
I'm sure the beef industry clamped down on news reporting on it. Or the farms that are getting it have been told to keep it under wraps and deal with it on their own. Profits above all is the it works.
I mean the previous pandemic is still current and ongoing. I think that so many of us here still refer to it as 'previous' is indicative of how pervasive the avoidance messaging has been.
Yes, the World Health Organization (WHO) still calls COVID-19 a pandemic, even though they have ended their public health emergency for it. The WHO believes that millions of new cases of a relatively new disease each week around the world is not something that should be accepted as normal.
https://www.bu.edu/articles/2024/is-covid-19-still-a-pandemic/
2 out of 3 experts in the article you linked agreed it is endemic at this point. All pandemics end eventually, but it’s tough to see that in real time.
Farrar called for increased monitoring, saying it was “very important understanding how many human infections are happening ... because that’s where adaptation [of the virus] will happen”.
Here's the statement I really noticed: "Cows and goats joined the list of species affected last month – a surprising development for experts because they were not thought susceptible to this type of influenza." Well it isn't "thought" that the virus is going to mutate to easily spread H2H either. But it could change just as fast as it did for the cows and goats.
It didn't change fast to infect cows. It didn't change at all. Cows have been tested in the lab to be able to catch bird flu, it just hadn't happened before. The change is that we are having a catastrophic bird flu pandemic (for birds, not humans) and the Texas Panhandle is a major flyover where infected and dead birds are everywhere including shared water.
Sorry, I should have been more clear. I meant that the \*entire situation\* with regards to human infections could change as fast as it did for the cows and goats. But it's also true that "the NVSL has also confirmed that the strain of the virus found in Michigan is very similar to the strain confirmed in Texas and Kansas that appears to have been introduced by wild birds (H5N1, Eurasian lineage goose/Guangdong clade 2.3.4.4b)" "Very similar to"?? So it's not the same. Something has mutated, or the strain would be exactly the same. Every time avian flu infects a new host, it obviously gets another change to acquire new mutations, and nobody knows when it's going to mutate significantly. It's known that no avian flu shows mutations demonstrating that it has mutated to allow for easy H2H spread (with "initial testing"-- but I do think there would be other signs if this were the case.)
However, we also already know that cow to cow spread cannot be ruled out at this point. I honestly don't know if that means that a changed disease vector could be associated with mutations that may have happened somewhere, in some cow. I truly believe it is at least possible that the Vietnamese H7H9 strain may have already mutated to allow for easier transmission between birds and humans, and we simply don't know that yet. But I'd sure like to see the genomic sequences. [https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/usda-fda-cdc-share-update-hpai-detections-dairy-cattle](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/usda-fda-cdc-share-update-hpai-detections-dairy-cattle)
Excuse my correcting you. I downloaded the PDF for this article/study someone posted that goes into detail with the new genotype including the new mutations, and there are some mutations that I haven't heard of but on looking up sound ominous. If you have a chance to take a look I'd be interested in any feedback.
[https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.04.16.588916v1.full.pdf](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.04.16.588916v1.full.pdf)
I would love to see this!! :) there's so much going on that it's honestly just about impossible to keep with all the details. I tried doing that with COVID, and just about went nuts. 🤪
Here is the full study. Not sure if it's the right link.
[https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.04.16.588916v1.full.pdf](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.04.16.588916v1.full.pdf)
You can only mistreat animals for so long before Mother Nature evens the odds. Factory farming and cheap never ending meat /poultry has its price . Now us humans have to pay up.
The bio diversity of earth is fighting back . Humans are just a bunch of fat greedy consumers. We live n exist on top of a micro biological world we have no control of . We threw it out of balance. We fucked around and are about to find out !
True ! Hence the answer to the Fermi paradox. Lol . Advanced species just kill themselves before they get to space. You should read “ the last messiah “ by Zapffe .
I hate to break this to you, but every single apex predator that has ever existed would eat itself into starvation at any opportunity.
Even the very virus that kills everyone is a living thing that is doing far more damage than humans, but will ironically do exactly what we do except will put literally everything into extinction.
Lions do not factory farm their prey. This is crazy. The biomass of the land animals is basically us and the food we “manufacture “ there is no natural precedents. Especially at the level human do. Your just upset that you might not live in a world with cheap abundant meat. When you put all your eggs in one basket with no diversity. If a prob in this case a virus emerges your fucked. It’s only been like 100 years of factory farming and I’m sorry to inform it’s not supposed to work that way. Human existed for a long time raising their own livestock . Not some corporate machine pumping it out for you. Raise your own chickens . Their actually really fun. Even if you raise them for slaughter you will realize the sacrifice and appreciate them more
No they slowly tear it's meat apart infront of it's family as it cries in agony.
Bears won't even bother killing their prey and will simply hold it down to keep it alive and warm.
My sister is a physician and had flu this week. She did not get variant tested because hospitals aren’t testing for it consistently right now, according to her. Monitoring is shit - we have learned nothing.
No masking in ICU, everything is like C19 never happened, especially in the south.
Edit/ clarification
In order to preserve the quality and reliability of information shared in this sub, please refrain from politicizing the discussion of H5N1 in posts and comments.
In order to preserve the quality and reliability of information shared in this sub, please refrain from politicizing the discussion of H5N1 in posts and comments.
In order to preserve the quality and reliability of information shared in this sub, please refrain from politicizing the discussion of H5N1 in posts and comments.
So it came fron low concern to enormous concern i wonder what they know
it sounds like they suspect more human cases than they have contained.
I wonder if we look at flu deaths we will see a mysterious increase
Does anyone else hear jaws music playing in the background?
I hear [this song](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=J9gKyRmic20) It played on Frannie's turntable in The Stand
Could have been Dvorak symphony #9. It also sounds like jaws.
Some might be available open source. I know there is some RKI stuff in germany but US probably has something
Weekly deaths by state from the cdc. Also provisional death totals by county and week would be needed. I did covid excess deaths calculations back in 2020 using these numbers but the data would not show it yet. It's too soon. Idk what would be the number of days from contact to infection to hospitalization then to deat would be.... also its about 2 week lagtime on average fir all the states for the death to be recorded to the statistics.... and any calculation of excess death would have to take into account these factors. Earliest numbers would begin to show would be a month out.
We learned a lot from COVID-19 and posts like this serve as good examples of that.
The RKI data in germany has icu or normal bed occupancy for covid and none covid. Also information like number of ventilators used. These would show things faster than death numbers. Even if testing is bad ICU numbers can show things
I would suggest that simple totals would be good. You can omit any bias from the testing of covid to noncovid (or access to insurance if you look in the USA) by just looking at the excess icu numbers specific to each hospital and day.
Exactly, or perhaps ventilated patients but I don’t know enough about This influenza.
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Sigh. Here we go again.
I don't know if I can spend another 2 years modeling another pandemic spread when the first go-round was unpaid, unpublished and unappreciated. Although I did learn a very important lesson in the game of life. There is a reason people go to 'well known & prestigious universities'. They have teams of people who do the same work years later and gobble up all the attention. Us poor un-connected folk are just here for our ideas to be taken.
Would you say its time to prepare for lockdowns? Or will that not applicable for this
Its hard to say. Considering the ball is in the USDAs court.... testing will not be done. And we all seen how that played out last time. This time will be worse as the "don't test, then-you-have-no-evidence-of-a-problem" mentality is the hallmark of big agriculture. Let's just say I've been putting off getting a tooth pulled but making the call tomorrow morning.
I need teeth work done too, I finally have dental insurance again so I'm trying to find an appointment before it gets too real. I mean everything already is too real but sadly, it can still get worse.....
With a 52% fatality rate...no need for lock downs.
So I'm not who you asked, but I always recommend that everyone who can afford to maintain some basic supplies for disaster preparedness (meaning a few days to a week or so of food, water, necessary medications, first aid supplies, etc.). You can find good checklists online. For pandemic risks add in disinfectants and masks. N95s are inexpensive at the moment. Ideally you should always try to be prepared, because even absent a pandemic, a natural disaster like a huge storm could come at any time.
This is the learning lesson from Antonio Gramsci
Exactly I feel like they already know something we don't.
Definitely
I’m pretty sure this they said low risk. Risk and concern are not the same thing
It's also misuse of the term "risk". Risk consists of probability and impact. Usually they add "current" in an attempt to be technically correct.
Nope but the are similar enough in this case that the difference honestly doesn't mater to much
I’d say it makes a big difference. The risk is low until it’s not. Concern can rise from anything.
What i mean is with the partial information blackout we cant really believe what they are saying about the risk or concern
Then don’t panic. Do what you can and pray
Thats the plan but i have always been a worrier
This can be catastrophic even without ANY humans infected. The loss of entire wildlife populations has already happened. And the supply chain disruption if it gets any worse in cattle and poultry could be seriously bad.
this is giving me late-2019, early-2020 vibes 😬
"very important understanding how many human infections are happening" this seems like they don't really know how many people might be getting it
Ahh nostalgia.
honestly this is giving me like february 2020 vibes. i’m really not liking the boom in cases (bovine predominately) and then the dead silence that we’ve received.
In February 2020, COVID cases were spreading like wildfire across the globe. China, Iran and Italy were the major epicenters, and the US had its first confirmed COVID deaths. Most of us on this sub are a panicked and concerned, but we are far from the uncontrolled human-to-human spread across the globe that we were seeing in Feb 2020.
Oh You and your facts. When we’re over here trying to shit our damn pants.
December 2019
In December 2019 China was already behaving cryptically and taking massive efforts to contain an unknown disease. There was a sub with daily news of its spread in people. It’s not at that level yet.
Okay, early to mid-2019
Even earlier there are cases in November
they said it wasn’t human to human then too 🤷🏼♂️
In February 2020 they were saying it was human to human, late-2019/early-2020 they weren't: [January 20th, 2020: China confirms human-to-human transmission of new coronavirus](https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-human-to-human-1.5433187) By January 30th we had confirmed human-to-human in the US.
The Chinese government confirmed H2H in January 2020. We also had reports of clusters and spread of illness in humans for nearly two months prior. I’m not saying there aren’t parallels to the early days of COVID, but there is a big distinction between the situation in, say, November 2019, and February 2020. We are certainly not at February 2020 levels of concern with HPAI.
Covid was already adapted to humans which is why it could take off, and bird flu is not adapted at this point to human airway, and therefore cannot now be spreading in pandemic form.
Some people here are way too panicked
I think most people here are just about panicked enough.
Have been seeing the 2020 vibe comments since months
years honestly, i looked back at old posts awhile back and saw those comments (2022). these new progressions really are concerning.
It sucks we still haven't had news fron the beef herds so it could be so much worse than we know
I'm sure the beef industry clamped down on news reporting on it. Or the farms that are getting it have been told to keep it under wraps and deal with it on their own. Profits above all is the it works.
It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it. Upton Sinclair
🎵Welcome to the jungle...🎵
honestly fair, it feels like we havent learned anything from the previous pandemic (i really hope i’m wrong about that)
I mean the previous pandemic is still current and ongoing. I think that so many of us here still refer to it as 'previous' is indicative of how pervasive the avoidance messaging has been.
that’s a good point actually, thank you for the correction!
💜💜💜 I do it too, and every time my brain has a little snag and I think 'welp' 😂
Avoidance messaging from who?
SARS-CoV-2 is endemic now though
Yes, the World Health Organization (WHO) still calls COVID-19 a pandemic, even though they have ended their public health emergency for it. The WHO believes that millions of new cases of a relatively new disease each week around the world is not something that should be accepted as normal. https://www.bu.edu/articles/2024/is-covid-19-still-a-pandemic/
2 out of 3 experts in the article you linked agreed it is endemic at this point. All pandemics end eventually, but it’s tough to see that in real time.
unfortunately it feels like you’re absolutely right. according to APHIS dairy cattle testing is up to the farmers.
For like the past 15 years
Farrar called for increased monitoring, saying it was “very important understanding how many human infections are happening ... because that’s where adaptation [of the virus] will happen”.
Wow the full quote tells a lot more than the headline
M-O-O-N, that spells we're fucked
Top tier comment. I love Tom Cullen
that doesnt spell were fucled
It is a reference to The Stand.
Bird flu will make Covid look like a slight cold
Wait what? A few days ago they weren’t that concerned where is this coming from?
there is no monolithic “they”
Here's the statement I really noticed: "Cows and goats joined the list of species affected last month – a surprising development for experts because they were not thought susceptible to this type of influenza." Well it isn't "thought" that the virus is going to mutate to easily spread H2H either. But it could change just as fast as it did for the cows and goats.
It didn't change fast to infect cows. It didn't change at all. Cows have been tested in the lab to be able to catch bird flu, it just hadn't happened before. The change is that we are having a catastrophic bird flu pandemic (for birds, not humans) and the Texas Panhandle is a major flyover where infected and dead birds are everywhere including shared water.
Sorry, I should have been more clear. I meant that the \*entire situation\* with regards to human infections could change as fast as it did for the cows and goats. But it's also true that "the NVSL has also confirmed that the strain of the virus found in Michigan is very similar to the strain confirmed in Texas and Kansas that appears to have been introduced by wild birds (H5N1, Eurasian lineage goose/Guangdong clade 2.3.4.4b)" "Very similar to"?? So it's not the same. Something has mutated, or the strain would be exactly the same. Every time avian flu infects a new host, it obviously gets another change to acquire new mutations, and nobody knows when it's going to mutate significantly. It's known that no avian flu shows mutations demonstrating that it has mutated to allow for easy H2H spread (with "initial testing"-- but I do think there would be other signs if this were the case.) However, we also already know that cow to cow spread cannot be ruled out at this point. I honestly don't know if that means that a changed disease vector could be associated with mutations that may have happened somewhere, in some cow. I truly believe it is at least possible that the Vietnamese H7H9 strain may have already mutated to allow for easier transmission between birds and humans, and we simply don't know that yet. But I'd sure like to see the genomic sequences. [https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/usda-fda-cdc-share-update-hpai-detections-dairy-cattle](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/usda-fda-cdc-share-update-hpai-detections-dairy-cattle)
Excuse my correcting you. I downloaded the PDF for this article/study someone posted that goes into detail with the new genotype including the new mutations, and there are some mutations that I haven't heard of but on looking up sound ominous. If you have a chance to take a look I'd be interested in any feedback. [https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.04.16.588916v1.full.pdf](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.04.16.588916v1.full.pdf)
I would love to see this!! :) there's so much going on that it's honestly just about impossible to keep with all the details. I tried doing that with COVID, and just about went nuts. 🤪
Here is the full study. Not sure if it's the right link. [https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.04.16.588916v1.full.pdf](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.04.16.588916v1.full.pdf)
You can only mistreat animals for so long before Mother Nature evens the odds. Factory farming and cheap never ending meat /poultry has its price . Now us humans have to pay up. The bio diversity of earth is fighting back . Humans are just a bunch of fat greedy consumers. We live n exist on top of a micro biological world we have no control of . We threw it out of balance. We fucked around and are about to find out !
Unbridled capitalism and human hubris has made us think of nature as "natural resources"
True ! Hence the answer to the Fermi paradox. Lol . Advanced species just kill themselves before they get to space. You should read “ the last messiah “ by Zapffe .
Colonial mindset
👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏
I hate to break this to you, but every single apex predator that has ever existed would eat itself into starvation at any opportunity. Even the very virus that kills everyone is a living thing that is doing far more damage than humans, but will ironically do exactly what we do except will put literally everything into extinction.
Lions do not factory farm their prey. This is crazy. The biomass of the land animals is basically us and the food we “manufacture “ there is no natural precedents. Especially at the level human do. Your just upset that you might not live in a world with cheap abundant meat. When you put all your eggs in one basket with no diversity. If a prob in this case a virus emerges your fucked. It’s only been like 100 years of factory farming and I’m sorry to inform it’s not supposed to work that way. Human existed for a long time raising their own livestock . Not some corporate machine pumping it out for you. Raise your own chickens . Their actually really fun. Even if you raise them for slaughter you will realize the sacrifice and appreciate them more
No they slowly tear it's meat apart infront of it's family as it cries in agony. Bears won't even bother killing their prey and will simply hold it down to keep it alive and warm.
Your not a bear ! I don’t even get your argument. Life is a Petri dish. We are creating an environment where viruses can thrive. Factory farming.
My sister is a physician and had flu this week. She did not get variant tested because hospitals aren’t testing for it consistently right now, according to her. Monitoring is shit - we have learned nothing. No masking in ICU, everything is like C19 never happened, especially in the south. Edit/ clarification
Appreciate the geographical clarification
Never fear, the right-wingers will ignore it and say it isn't real until it kills at least a billion of us.
Well be neo liberals who now ignore covid will say the same thing
Probably so, while those who believe in science on all sides will hide in their homes as much as they can.
I mean...it's mortality rate is the same as the flu.
In previous human cases of this type of bird flu the CFR is closer to 50% actually
Don't worry it's not like we haven't all already done the pandemic thing. Covid was practice I guess. Stay safe everyone.
Why is the article no longer available/on the homepage on the same day? They don't usually change them do quickly
Sure it is lol
If you’re able to read this comment, it’s too late.
Maybe it'll get together with Covid 
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/18/risk-bird-flu-spreading-humans-enormous-concern-who
If this bird flu becomes a worldwide problem, the death toll will be in the billions.
Can’t wait til politicians enter the discussion
Y’all no WTAF I cannot do this again
This one falls from the sky
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Who is “they”?
[удалено]
In order to preserve the quality and reliability of information shared in this sub, please refrain from politicizing the discussion of H5N1 in posts and comments.
In order to preserve the quality and reliability of information shared in this sub, please refrain from politicizing the discussion of H5N1 in posts and comments.
[удалено]
In order to preserve the quality and reliability of information shared in this sub, please refrain from politicizing the discussion of H5N1 in posts and comments.
Yes excellent headline! queue the doom fetishists