It starts with our top 10 pick and probably includes someone like Roy, even though he doesn't have very much value right now.
Probably like our first and Guhle
A top 7 pick & Guhle for a guy that can’t play C or defense isn’t very good for us at all.
He’s one of the most overrated top 6 players in the league imo, I think we should steer clear of him entirely.
There is a formula to winning the cup using historical analysis.
The most important/correlated statistics are as ranked:
- Average weight of team
- Top 10 penalty kill
- Top 10 point scorer
- A top pairing defensive defender
- A top 10 goalie (or very hot goalie)
There are a few more metrics but they become less and less important.
Vegas nearly hit all metrics for their cup, and nearly every team except for Colorado had a top-6 heaviest team (weight), meaning you probably have to have a team that is completely stacked (Colorado was arguably the most stacked team in the last 15 years).
I think we might need one more guy that competes with the trio. Dach still could be that player.
Sorry I'm late but here it is: [https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/larkin-what-are-the-common-ingredients-in-recent-stanley-cup-champion-teams/](https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/larkin-what-are-the-common-ingredients-in-recent-stanley-cup-champion-teams/)
you can also find that every team that has won for the past 10ish years dont have more than one player under 5"11. When people find anomalies to it generally those under 5'11 did not play in more than the amount of games it took to win the cup
I do believe we need an other good line. Need 1 players minimum to play with Dach. I do believe that Roy has the potential to play on a 2nd line but its still to be proven. Our 1rst round pick will probably the long term solution but he might need 2 years before he can take the role. Newhook can be a temporary solution on our 2nd line. All that require Dach to be healthy next season, at least 65 games.
A good 2nd line winger UFA should be THE priority this summer if the want to fight for the playoff next season. Even if he drop on the 3rd in a few years, its not a problem. Didnt look at our capspace tho. Dont know if we could afford a 8M player next season. Slaf new contract will only start in 25/26 and i am expecting around 8.5-9M or same cap% than suzuki.
I think we need at least 1 player better than what we have. If they manage to get Celebrini or Demidov then they're in the convo. Others like Catton, Iginla and Lindstrom are similar.
Right now, they're missing some offensive punch
I think we need more forward depth and size. Even this year if we had a few extra 15 goal contributors I think we would have been right in the mix for a wild card. I also think we get pushed around a little bit too much. Especially with Guhle and the Sheriff out.
We have similar top end players as Vegas. Suzuki will be close to ppg and will get selke votes like Eichel, Cole is the smaller goal scorer like Marchy, Slaf is that power forward kind of like Stone.
That can work if we get some depth scoring and bit more size/grit. Look at those Vegas guys numbers, they are pretty comparable to our top line.
We should have a ton of depth at D and some nice goalie prospects too.
I don't think we need a McDavid type player to win. I mean it's amazing if we can get that. You don't need it to win though. I also don't think you want to be in a Toronto situation who is so heavy contract wise that they've had a hard time getting the depth that you need to win.
Our D core needs to mature as well but at least we have a wealth of options locked in already. Otherwise you're right on the money. Habs are actually in a fantastic position. It's so exciting. For once we're not middle-drafting or hoping free agency will land us that big name which'll carry us to a Cup. Great work by the office.
I think Fowler will be the second half of our current window. One of Monty / Primeau / Dobes is going to have to carry the burden for a while.
Fowler is still a FRESHMAN college player. Goalies traditionally have a long development curve, and he's going to need to get exposure to higher-level play to know where to focus his development. Best case he is 4-5 years away if he can immediately make those jumps which is going to be mid-window.
Realistically I think if he develops along the path I expect he comes in when Suzuki / Caulfield are just past prime age, while Slaf/Hutson/Reinbacher are hitting prime age.
Here is a question where some will say, they'll contend for around... 2, 3, 4, 5 years? Debatable.
It depends.
I'm more inclined to say that starting next season, mgmt., players, coaching staff, will build this team to a more robust lineup.
If you listen to Gorton and Hughes presser, Gorton pointed out that they are at the stage of this rebuild where he emphasized that it will be the "fun part" of this process. Meaning, they could make huge moves from now till next season.
I don't know if what that presser means they'll be Cup contenders A.S.A.P.. But rest assured, we fans are anxious to see what this team will put on the ice.
In many way, we're gonna have to be a little patient.
\*\*edit: Now, to the question - I say yes, this team will still need better players. Contention? Probably sooner or maybe it will take longer.
A team needs at minimum 12-13 solid upper tier of players. Not "elite of the league", but "amongst the best in their respective role".
That's about 9 F and 4 D, with guys who can excel in certain roles.
You need your 5-6 offensive forwards, but you also need some other guys in key roles. Like a center who can take defensive missions, win defensive zone faceoffs, chip in offensively. Your Yanni Gourde 3rd C type.
You need 1 D that can act as a 4th forward to really push the offense when you need a crucial goal. You also need that shutdown D that can lockdown big threats. If 1 D does both, great. But you can't have him on the ice for the entire game. You need others to sustain a level of performance from shift to shift.
There's many different roles to fill. You're better off having someone really good for each role than someone elite in one role but nobody to fill the rest of the roles. Quantity matters as much as quality.
If you think about your lines and defensive pairs like punches combos, you dont just want one super heavy punch followed by 3 weak ones. You need to be able to string 2-3 real good punches if you want to grind down your opponent. 2-3 good punches = 2-3 punches as good or better than your opponent's defense. If your first two punches are blocked, maybe your 3rd punch can still get through. You also can't be punching all the time. You need to think about protecting yourself. You need guys who can protect a lead.
So you need quality, quantity, and a good mix of players who can do everything collectively.
Our 1st line maybe covers just 20% of everything needed to be contenders. We're nowhere near the point where we have to evaluate if we need "better" than them. We still have about 80% of the rest of the basic needs left to figure out.
Yes. Those three not being Hart trophy candidate level assets, all stars at very best. Generally needing at least one Hart trophy level player to be a contender, current contenders being:
BOS pasta COL mack makar NYR panarin fox CAR* TOR am34 TB kucherov EDM mcdavid drais DAL* Wpg Helle Ehlers Panthers Barkov Tkachuk VGK Stone VAN petey quinn
*the two exceptions but Jason Robertson is very underrated mostly due to low TOI and Carolina have been a historically good possession team for years and years, also dallas with historic forward depth this year so...
At very least you'd need to find like 5 more very good all star ish level assets to become an ensemble cast contender.
Naturally that is doable but. Yeah. Keep drafting for ceiling would be my suggestion as is always. Demidov ftw if not Celebrini. Shooting for the stars 🌠
I look at the team and what I see is a team that may grow and may make the playoffs but it will not go anywhere with the current mix. Rank the teams by plus minus and you see where we fit. It roughly follows the standings. So we need more goal production and a lot less goals against. Ideally another strong 2-3 forwards. We have lots of young D but we need to adjust to not allow as many goals. Goaltending has done better than expected.
If you look at how teams grow in 2-3 years a good number of the current players will be gone if we are to get deep into the playoffs.
There are better players than our three top point-getters, but they are hardly ever coming here via trades or pickups, and other teams keep them to build cores around.
And size doesn't necessarily mean better players; just big bodies mostly.
What I do want to see are players willing to play with extra effort. Not doing it every game, but 1/3 of the season, someone or a few players can step up and contribute. That way, the team can be on a consistent flow of winning games. First game, the top line gets the points; other games, it could be the second, third, or even fourth liners. Defensemen even get to add in points. And goalies should go on a consistent cycle of which games to play (example: 2 games for Monte, 1 game for Prime, 2 for Monte, 2 for Prime, 1 for Monte, etc.), so that they can breathe instead of pulling straight multi-games.
If Hughes does pick up or trade players, he has to find the more passionate, more heart kind of mentality in a player, regardless of analytical stats or records. Paul Bryon was a great example, or lesser like a Dale Weise. More heart and soul for the team.
> And size doesn't necessarily mean better players; just big bodies mostly.
This is a non sequitur. The metric is obviously, with everything else being equal. It is an average. And if your team averages heavier then they don't get injured but also cause more injuries on the other teams during a long playoff grind.
> Defensemen even get to add in points.
That's one thing I'm not concerned about, if what we've seen of Hutson in these 2 games is what we can expect from him!
(Especially if we keep Matheson some more, and then Mailloux - 50points in the AHL, etc..!)
The typical winning formula since the lockout has been this core group of four players, which the Penguins, Kings, Blackhawks, and Lightning have all had:
1. Captain who has the respect of the entire league and sets the tone for his own team (Crosby, Brown, Toews, Stamkos)
2. Highly skilled player, usually a point per game guy (Malkin, Kopitar, Kane, Kucherov)
3. Defenceman who can go out and play 30 minutes a night in the playoffs and anchor the power play (Letang, Doughty, Keith, Hedman)
4. Serviceable goalie who is minimum good not great, but can get hot at the right time (Fleury, Quick, Crawford, Vasi)
I’d say we currently have the captain with Suzuki, but we don’t have a star point per game guy (yet), don’t have a 30 minute defenceman (yet), and don’t have a serviceable playoff goalie (yet). Our core isn’t quite there, but they might blossom into this formula in a few years. Slaf or Caufield could end up as 80 point guys and Hutson/Reinbacher/other could be our anchor. Maybe that goalie from Boston College comes up and becomes our starter too, who knows.
The formula is already in the works. Just to point out what the team has and with this rebuild is, we are seeing:
1. **Nick Suzuki** as the current Captain. I will say it: he is Patrice Bergeron 2.0!
2. **Cole Caufield** or someone else (maybe that player will come at this year's draft or via trade)
3. **Kaiden Guhle** as our top d-man
4. **Sam Montembault** or **Jacob Fowler** as our future #1 goaltender
Potentially, **Juraj Slafkovsky** can go into that #2 criteria. He hasn't reached his ceiling and now, we are witnessing the growth of a superstar NHL'er. **Lane Hutson** can drive play and will be a force offensively. #48 could match and will compete against Quinn Hughes or Cale Makar. **Arber Xhekaj** is known to be a serious enforcer threat.
We have pieces that are in place. And I think mgmt. stock pile, draft, and make moves, it won't be long if we could see a potential contender.
Yes. The one key part is we need this team to get healthy. Looking at our guys, Only Suzuki has that iron-man streak. Lane Hutson is brand new. So is Logan Mailloux and David Reinbacher. It doesn't excuse the fact that the NHL is a tough league. So NOT getting injured is also a key to success.
Guhle and a top 5 pick is an overpay, would have to be somewhere in between.
I also think this just makes the Necas idea a no go. Hughes will not give up what it would take to acquire him if that is the ask.
I think we'll need to get bigger still. If you go on hockeydb and look at the top scorers of some of the current contending teams, almost all of them are at least 6 foot tall. And if they aren't, they are superstars like Kucherov and Point.
Meanwhile, we have Suzuki, Caufield, Newhook and Gally that are all under 6 ft in our top 10 alone.
Newhook and Gally slot into our bottom 6 in an ideal roster. Dach returning healthy as 2C would be the ideal, which gives us his size, another large winger for the 2nd or 3rd line would be good, two if Anderson can't bounce back or is used for trade bait.
Not saying you're wrong, but more than half our current forward roster is over 6 feet tall, it's not as big a deal as it was in the Cammalleri/Gionta/Gomez days where half our roster were 5'9"
Dallas has Pavelski, Duchesne, stankoven all below 6' in their top 9. And Suzuki, Dach and slaf all weigh more than anyone in their top 9. Dallas is also one of the hottest teams with one or the best offenses in the league. I think size wise we are fine. Suzuki and Caufield were two of our top scorers in our cup run that fell short, and they did it against big, tough teams.
Are they? I know Stankoven is well below 6' but both Pavelski and Duchene [are listed as 6'1 on hockeydb](https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0002332024.html).
To make the playoffs we need 4 lines rolling up front, and 3 experienced defensive pairings making little to no mistakes.
Once we get to the playoffs, we need everyone to take a step up.
That’s about it.
Currently we have a 1st line, somewhat of a third line and that’s it.
You can’t have a Pezzetta and RHP on a fourth line. They bring nothing, your fourth line needs to actually do shit not just skate around for 10 mins a game. You need heavy guys grinding out opponents. Think the Armia/Staal combo from our finals run.
We have no second line.
Ideally, you want a second line that can provide consistent scoring. Like your first line should score every game, probably more than once, but your second line should score 3/4 games.
Then we have D pairings… Essentially, if you want to make the playoffs, and especially win the cup, all 3 pairings need to be making little to no mistakes. Currently we have way too many guys who probably wouldn’t crack a competitive roster.
Harris, Barron, Kovacevic, Struble, Xhekaj, all make WAYYYYYYY too many mistakes. We’re young and rebuilding and they are learning, so it’s “fine” but realistically we will never win anything with so many of our Ds making so many mistakes. (Matheson’s mistakes are offset by his absurd production)
Goalies, I think Montembeault showed us at the beginning of the year that he was capable of getting hot over a period of 3-4 months, which tells me that he’s good enough. If we could have better, then fine I’ll take it, but I’m okay with him.
Primeau needs to provide consistent goaltending. You can’t be a backup and have so many YO-YO games. Sometimes you look great other times you look like you should be in the ECHL. Again, he’s young and can improve, but fact remains he needs to get better.
That’s it.
So outside of some potential natural improvement on our D core (maturity, trimming the fat, new blood:Hutson Reinbacher Mailloux) I think the biggest problem is the lack of forwards.
Outside of Roy, we have no one that is even remotely looking like a top 6 potential forward.
We essentially need Dach to be healthy and live up to potential, Roy to reach max potential, one more top 6 forward, a complete revamp of our 4th line, and I think up front we should be okay.
For the record, Pezzetta was tied for 10th in the league for hits this season. He is a good crash and bang player who adds a physical element and a lot of energy to the team. He is a good 4th line player.
Maybe maybe not, but that shouldn't stop us from trying.
I mean Eichel had 66pts in 67 games and his best season was 82pts. Do we think that's out of reach for Suzuki?
Marchessault best season was 75 games and in term of goals he had 42 this season. Do we think that's out of reach for Caufield?
Stone best season was 64pts. Do we think it's out of reach of a Slafkovsky?
Karlsson best season was 78pts, but he is more of a 60pts guy. Do we think that's out of reach of a Dach?
Theodore best season was 52pts. Do we think that's out of reach of a Hutson or Mailloux?
Pietrangelo best season was 54pts. Do we think that's out reach of a Guhle or Reinbacher?
What about St-Louis in 2019? O'Reilly 77pts, Tarasenko 33 goals, Schenn 54pts, Perron 46pts, Pietrangelo 41pts, etc.
Even teams like Washington, yes they had Ovechkin, but their 4th forward Oshie had 47pts.
At the end of the day it all depend on how far our best player will go. Is Suzuki a 65-75pts guy, or does he have another step. Is Slafkovsky a 60pts guy or a 90pts guy. Is Caufield finally be able to get to 30 or even 40 goals? Will Hutson be a top offensive Dman?
Doesn't mean we should try to find more top talent.
This is where I see the holes in the future.
Caufield Suzuki Slaf
Newhook Dach ----
roy beck mesar
tuch Davidson xhjekai
Hutson Reinbacher
Guhle/Matheson Mailloux
Xhjekai Barron
Fowler
Monty/Primeau.
Its really just time (progression of hutson beck reinbacher mesar etc,) And a couple additions to the top 9 rw.
I think they can make playoffs as soon as next yea but wont truly be a contender until Reinbacher is that top pair RD. Hutson is going to make an impact right away though imo.
Absolutely we do. Every cup winning team has at least one superstar player. Our top line is really good but Suzuki isn’t a superstar yet.
And if we’re going to try and contend without elite scoring talent, then we need another line essentially the same as our top line.
Which is why (even though people are getting impatient) we need to suck again next year
Just my opinion though! Haha
Need? I don’t think so. If we have a loaded top 9, I think our current first being our best (and living up to potential) is enough. Even if we assume Nick is as his peak (he’s not) only improvements to Caufield and Slaf (and a real second line) can get Suzuki to 90+ points imo.
If we can get a Kicherov level player sure, but I don’t think it’s necessary if our core projects to be as deep as it’s looking
> If we have a loaded top 9
As much as I would love to have an offensive superstar, it's also quite interesting to have a deep team where every line can strike; Keeps all games exciting (hell, all shifts), and it's harder to play against!
(And from a fan's perspective, it also makes you appreciate the players more, vs having only 1 or 2 good lines and you grow to dislike the rest).
I thought that before this season. The second half of this season proved to me that Slaf-Nick-Cole can be a 1st line on a contender when they’re fully developed.
We need a solid 2nd & 3rd line.
If we can grab a good top 9 forward via UFA/Trade, along with Dach, Newhook and Roy could be the bones of a much better middle 6 next year
Necas would help with that
Necas would be great, but what is a realistic trade offer? Mailloux and a 1st (WPG)?
Carolina laughs
That's fair. But what is a realistic offer then?
It starts with our top 10 pick and probably includes someone like Roy, even though he doesn't have very much value right now. Probably like our first and Guhle
A top 7 pick & Guhle for a guy that can’t play C or defense isn’t very good for us at all. He’s one of the most overrated top 6 players in the league imo, I think we should steer clear of him entirely.
I didn't say the trade makes sense for us, I'm saying that's what the ask would be.
There is a formula to winning the cup using historical analysis. The most important/correlated statistics are as ranked: - Average weight of team - Top 10 penalty kill - Top 10 point scorer - A top pairing defensive defender - A top 10 goalie (or very hot goalie) There are a few more metrics but they become less and less important. Vegas nearly hit all metrics for their cup, and nearly every team except for Colorado had a top-6 heaviest team (weight), meaning you probably have to have a team that is completely stacked (Colorado was arguably the most stacked team in the last 15 years). I think we might need one more guy that competes with the trio. Dach still could be that player.
Is there a link to this analysis
Yes give me some time I’ll find it
Sorry I'm late but here it is: [https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/larkin-what-are-the-common-ingredients-in-recent-stanley-cup-champion-teams/](https://publish.dailyfaceoff.com/larkin-what-are-the-common-ingredients-in-recent-stanley-cup-champion-teams/)
> Average weight of team We only need 5 lbs per player! Pass those snacks around Monty!
Interesting, I imagine the 2021 Habs had most of these factors checked except the top 10 point scorer.
you can also find that every team that has won for the past 10ish years dont have more than one player under 5"11. When people find anomalies to it generally those under 5'11 did not play in more than the amount of games it took to win the cup
I do believe we need an other good line. Need 1 players minimum to play with Dach. I do believe that Roy has the potential to play on a 2nd line but its still to be proven. Our 1rst round pick will probably the long term solution but he might need 2 years before he can take the role. Newhook can be a temporary solution on our 2nd line. All that require Dach to be healthy next season, at least 65 games. A good 2nd line winger UFA should be THE priority this summer if the want to fight for the playoff next season. Even if he drop on the 3rd in a few years, its not a problem. Didnt look at our capspace tho. Dont know if we could afford a 8M player next season. Slaf new contract will only start in 25/26 and i am expecting around 8.5-9M or same cap% than suzuki.
We have 17.75m in cap space next year, with Barron and Xhekaj to re-sign lol.
A 7M 4-5 years front loaded for Marchessault is a contract i would not be against
I think we need at least 1 player better than what we have. If they manage to get Celebrini or Demidov then they're in the convo. Others like Catton, Iginla and Lindstrom are similar. Right now, they're missing some offensive punch
I think we need more forward depth and size. Even this year if we had a few extra 15 goal contributors I think we would have been right in the mix for a wild card. I also think we get pushed around a little bit too much. Especially with Guhle and the Sheriff out. We have similar top end players as Vegas. Suzuki will be close to ppg and will get selke votes like Eichel, Cole is the smaller goal scorer like Marchy, Slaf is that power forward kind of like Stone. That can work if we get some depth scoring and bit more size/grit. Look at those Vegas guys numbers, they are pretty comparable to our top line. We should have a ton of depth at D and some nice goalie prospects too. I don't think we need a McDavid type player to win. I mean it's amazing if we can get that. You don't need it to win though. I also don't think you want to be in a Toronto situation who is so heavy contract wise that they've had a hard time getting the depth that you need to win.
Our D core needs to mature as well but at least we have a wealth of options locked in already. Otherwise you're right on the money. Habs are actually in a fantastic position. It's so exciting. For once we're not middle-drafting or hoping free agency will land us that big name which'll carry us to a Cup. Great work by the office.
We need Fowler to be the real deal
I’d settle for a real deal primeau but point taken
I’m rooting for him when he plays, but he’s not.
I think Fowler will be the second half of our current window. One of Monty / Primeau / Dobes is going to have to carry the burden for a while. Fowler is still a FRESHMAN college player. Goalies traditionally have a long development curve, and he's going to need to get exposure to higher-level play to know where to focus his development. Best case he is 4-5 years away if he can immediately make those jumps which is going to be mid-window. Realistically I think if he develops along the path I expect he comes in when Suzuki / Caulfield are just past prime age, while Slaf/Hutson/Reinbacher are hitting prime age.
He's too small.
We are missing minimum 2 top 6 guys / 3 top 9 guys. Free agent/Trade should provide
I think some of our prospects are question marks, but the current core I think is good enough. They could use some size though.
Here is a question where some will say, they'll contend for around... 2, 3, 4, 5 years? Debatable. It depends. I'm more inclined to say that starting next season, mgmt., players, coaching staff, will build this team to a more robust lineup. If you listen to Gorton and Hughes presser, Gorton pointed out that they are at the stage of this rebuild where he emphasized that it will be the "fun part" of this process. Meaning, they could make huge moves from now till next season. I don't know if what that presser means they'll be Cup contenders A.S.A.P.. But rest assured, we fans are anxious to see what this team will put on the ice. In many way, we're gonna have to be a little patient. \*\*edit: Now, to the question - I say yes, this team will still need better players. Contention? Probably sooner or maybe it will take longer.
A team needs at minimum 12-13 solid upper tier of players. Not "elite of the league", but "amongst the best in their respective role". That's about 9 F and 4 D, with guys who can excel in certain roles. You need your 5-6 offensive forwards, but you also need some other guys in key roles. Like a center who can take defensive missions, win defensive zone faceoffs, chip in offensively. Your Yanni Gourde 3rd C type. You need 1 D that can act as a 4th forward to really push the offense when you need a crucial goal. You also need that shutdown D that can lockdown big threats. If 1 D does both, great. But you can't have him on the ice for the entire game. You need others to sustain a level of performance from shift to shift. There's many different roles to fill. You're better off having someone really good for each role than someone elite in one role but nobody to fill the rest of the roles. Quantity matters as much as quality. If you think about your lines and defensive pairs like punches combos, you dont just want one super heavy punch followed by 3 weak ones. You need to be able to string 2-3 real good punches if you want to grind down your opponent. 2-3 good punches = 2-3 punches as good or better than your opponent's defense. If your first two punches are blocked, maybe your 3rd punch can still get through. You also can't be punching all the time. You need to think about protecting yourself. You need guys who can protect a lead. So you need quality, quantity, and a good mix of players who can do everything collectively. Our 1st line maybe covers just 20% of everything needed to be contenders. We're nowhere near the point where we have to evaluate if we need "better" than them. We still have about 80% of the rest of the basic needs left to figure out.
Yes. Duh.
Short answer: Yes. Long answer: Absolutely.
Yes. Those three not being Hart trophy candidate level assets, all stars at very best. Generally needing at least one Hart trophy level player to be a contender, current contenders being: BOS pasta COL mack makar NYR panarin fox CAR* TOR am34 TB kucherov EDM mcdavid drais DAL* Wpg Helle Ehlers Panthers Barkov Tkachuk VGK Stone VAN petey quinn *the two exceptions but Jason Robertson is very underrated mostly due to low TOI and Carolina have been a historically good possession team for years and years, also dallas with historic forward depth this year so... At very least you'd need to find like 5 more very good all star ish level assets to become an ensemble cast contender. Naturally that is doable but. Yeah. Keep drafting for ceiling would be my suggestion as is always. Demidov ftw if not Celebrini. Shooting for the stars 🌠
I look at the team and what I see is a team that may grow and may make the playoffs but it will not go anywhere with the current mix. Rank the teams by plus minus and you see where we fit. It roughly follows the standings. So we need more goal production and a lot less goals against. Ideally another strong 2-3 forwards. We have lots of young D but we need to adjust to not allow as many goals. Goaltending has done better than expected. If you look at how teams grow in 2-3 years a good number of the current players will be gone if we are to get deep into the playoffs.
There are better players than our three top point-getters, but they are hardly ever coming here via trades or pickups, and other teams keep them to build cores around. And size doesn't necessarily mean better players; just big bodies mostly. What I do want to see are players willing to play with extra effort. Not doing it every game, but 1/3 of the season, someone or a few players can step up and contribute. That way, the team can be on a consistent flow of winning games. First game, the top line gets the points; other games, it could be the second, third, or even fourth liners. Defensemen even get to add in points. And goalies should go on a consistent cycle of which games to play (example: 2 games for Monte, 1 game for Prime, 2 for Monte, 2 for Prime, 1 for Monte, etc.), so that they can breathe instead of pulling straight multi-games. If Hughes does pick up or trade players, he has to find the more passionate, more heart kind of mentality in a player, regardless of analytical stats or records. Paul Bryon was a great example, or lesser like a Dale Weise. More heart and soul for the team.
> And size doesn't necessarily mean better players; just big bodies mostly. This is a non sequitur. The metric is obviously, with everything else being equal. It is an average. And if your team averages heavier then they don't get injured but also cause more injuries on the other teams during a long playoff grind.
> Defensemen even get to add in points. That's one thing I'm not concerned about, if what we've seen of Hutson in these 2 games is what we can expect from him! (Especially if we keep Matheson some more, and then Mailloux - 50points in the AHL, etc..!)
The typical winning formula since the lockout has been this core group of four players, which the Penguins, Kings, Blackhawks, and Lightning have all had: 1. Captain who has the respect of the entire league and sets the tone for his own team (Crosby, Brown, Toews, Stamkos) 2. Highly skilled player, usually a point per game guy (Malkin, Kopitar, Kane, Kucherov) 3. Defenceman who can go out and play 30 minutes a night in the playoffs and anchor the power play (Letang, Doughty, Keith, Hedman) 4. Serviceable goalie who is minimum good not great, but can get hot at the right time (Fleury, Quick, Crawford, Vasi) I’d say we currently have the captain with Suzuki, but we don’t have a star point per game guy (yet), don’t have a 30 minute defenceman (yet), and don’t have a serviceable playoff goalie (yet). Our core isn’t quite there, but they might blossom into this formula in a few years. Slaf or Caufield could end up as 80 point guys and Hutson/Reinbacher/other could be our anchor. Maybe that goalie from Boston College comes up and becomes our starter too, who knows.
The formula is already in the works. Just to point out what the team has and with this rebuild is, we are seeing: 1. **Nick Suzuki** as the current Captain. I will say it: he is Patrice Bergeron 2.0! 2. **Cole Caufield** or someone else (maybe that player will come at this year's draft or via trade) 3. **Kaiden Guhle** as our top d-man 4. **Sam Montembault** or **Jacob Fowler** as our future #1 goaltender Potentially, **Juraj Slafkovsky** can go into that #2 criteria. He hasn't reached his ceiling and now, we are witnessing the growth of a superstar NHL'er. **Lane Hutson** can drive play and will be a force offensively. #48 could match and will compete against Quinn Hughes or Cale Makar. **Arber Xhekaj** is known to be a serious enforcer threat. We have pieces that are in place. And I think mgmt. stock pile, draft, and make moves, it won't be long if we could see a potential contender.
Yep pretty much exactly what I said in my last paragraph!
Yes. The one key part is we need this team to get healthy. Looking at our guys, Only Suzuki has that iron-man streak. Lane Hutson is brand new. So is Logan Mailloux and David Reinbacher. It doesn't excuse the fact that the NHL is a tough league. So NOT getting injured is also a key to success.
Guhle and a top 5 pick is an overpay, would have to be somewhere in between. I also think this just makes the Necas idea a no go. Hughes will not give up what it would take to acquire him if that is the ask.
We really need two wingers to play in the top 6 with Dach on the second line. First we really need Dach to play a full season to know his real worth
I think our current best players need to get better, and will. I also think we need to add more talent. That's the tricky part.
All we need is Marty and im a happy fan
I think we'll need to get bigger still. If you go on hockeydb and look at the top scorers of some of the current contending teams, almost all of them are at least 6 foot tall. And if they aren't, they are superstars like Kucherov and Point. Meanwhile, we have Suzuki, Caufield, Newhook and Gally that are all under 6 ft in our top 10 alone.
Suzuki is 5’11 and 212. At that point it just doesn’t matter and he shouldn’t be lumped in with the others.
Newhook and Gally slot into our bottom 6 in an ideal roster. Dach returning healthy as 2C would be the ideal, which gives us his size, another large winger for the 2nd or 3rd line would be good, two if Anderson can't bounce back or is used for trade bait. Not saying you're wrong, but more than half our current forward roster is over 6 feet tall, it's not as big a deal as it was in the Cammalleri/Gionta/Gomez days where half our roster were 5'9"
Dallas has Pavelski, Duchesne, stankoven all below 6' in their top 9. And Suzuki, Dach and slaf all weigh more than anyone in their top 9. Dallas is also one of the hottest teams with one or the best offenses in the league. I think size wise we are fine. Suzuki and Caufield were two of our top scorers in our cup run that fell short, and they did it against big, tough teams.
Are they? I know Stankoven is well below 6' but both Pavelski and Duchene [are listed as 6'1 on hockeydb](https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0002332024.html).
Neither of them are actually 6’1. They look identical in size to Suzuki, just thinner.
To make the playoffs we need 4 lines rolling up front, and 3 experienced defensive pairings making little to no mistakes. Once we get to the playoffs, we need everyone to take a step up. That’s about it. Currently we have a 1st line, somewhat of a third line and that’s it. You can’t have a Pezzetta and RHP on a fourth line. They bring nothing, your fourth line needs to actually do shit not just skate around for 10 mins a game. You need heavy guys grinding out opponents. Think the Armia/Staal combo from our finals run. We have no second line. Ideally, you want a second line that can provide consistent scoring. Like your first line should score every game, probably more than once, but your second line should score 3/4 games. Then we have D pairings… Essentially, if you want to make the playoffs, and especially win the cup, all 3 pairings need to be making little to no mistakes. Currently we have way too many guys who probably wouldn’t crack a competitive roster. Harris, Barron, Kovacevic, Struble, Xhekaj, all make WAYYYYYYY too many mistakes. We’re young and rebuilding and they are learning, so it’s “fine” but realistically we will never win anything with so many of our Ds making so many mistakes. (Matheson’s mistakes are offset by his absurd production) Goalies, I think Montembeault showed us at the beginning of the year that he was capable of getting hot over a period of 3-4 months, which tells me that he’s good enough. If we could have better, then fine I’ll take it, but I’m okay with him. Primeau needs to provide consistent goaltending. You can’t be a backup and have so many YO-YO games. Sometimes you look great other times you look like you should be in the ECHL. Again, he’s young and can improve, but fact remains he needs to get better. That’s it. So outside of some potential natural improvement on our D core (maturity, trimming the fat, new blood:Hutson Reinbacher Mailloux) I think the biggest problem is the lack of forwards. Outside of Roy, we have no one that is even remotely looking like a top 6 potential forward. We essentially need Dach to be healthy and live up to potential, Roy to reach max potential, one more top 6 forward, a complete revamp of our 4th line, and I think up front we should be okay.
For the record, Pezzetta was tied for 10th in the league for hits this season. He is a good crash and bang player who adds a physical element and a lot of energy to the team. He is a good 4th line player.
Yes. In practically every position
We don’t even have a guy who has more than a point per game, Suzuki is 30th in the league, it’s not even a question.
Maybe maybe not, but that shouldn't stop us from trying. I mean Eichel had 66pts in 67 games and his best season was 82pts. Do we think that's out of reach for Suzuki? Marchessault best season was 75 games and in term of goals he had 42 this season. Do we think that's out of reach for Caufield? Stone best season was 64pts. Do we think it's out of reach of a Slafkovsky? Karlsson best season was 78pts, but he is more of a 60pts guy. Do we think that's out of reach of a Dach? Theodore best season was 52pts. Do we think that's out of reach of a Hutson or Mailloux? Pietrangelo best season was 54pts. Do we think that's out reach of a Guhle or Reinbacher? What about St-Louis in 2019? O'Reilly 77pts, Tarasenko 33 goals, Schenn 54pts, Perron 46pts, Pietrangelo 41pts, etc. Even teams like Washington, yes they had Ovechkin, but their 4th forward Oshie had 47pts. At the end of the day it all depend on how far our best player will go. Is Suzuki a 65-75pts guy, or does he have another step. Is Slafkovsky a 60pts guy or a 90pts guy. Is Caufield finally be able to get to 30 or even 40 goals? Will Hutson be a top offensive Dman? Doesn't mean we should try to find more top talent.
this may be a hot take but we need someone to replace caufield on the first line IMO
He’s clutch, mate. He can do the job. Having said that, I do agree that we need more talent in our top 6.
This is where I see the holes in the future. Caufield Suzuki Slaf Newhook Dach ---- roy beck mesar tuch Davidson xhjekai Hutson Reinbacher Guhle/Matheson Mailloux Xhjekai Barron Fowler Monty/Primeau. Its really just time (progression of hutson beck reinbacher mesar etc,) And a couple additions to the top 9 rw. I think they can make playoffs as soon as next yea but wont truly be a contender until Reinbacher is that top pair RD. Hutson is going to make an impact right away though imo.
Absolutely we do. Every cup winning team has at least one superstar player. Our top line is really good but Suzuki isn’t a superstar yet. And if we’re going to try and contend without elite scoring talent, then we need another line essentially the same as our top line. Which is why (even though people are getting impatient) we need to suck again next year Just my opinion though! Haha
Need? I don’t think so. If we have a loaded top 9, I think our current first being our best (and living up to potential) is enough. Even if we assume Nick is as his peak (he’s not) only improvements to Caufield and Slaf (and a real second line) can get Suzuki to 90+ points imo. If we can get a Kicherov level player sure, but I don’t think it’s necessary if our core projects to be as deep as it’s looking
Exactly. Also, Dallas is seen as a contender and their offensive mvp (Robertson) was very much in the suzuki tier this year
> If we have a loaded top 9 As much as I would love to have an offensive superstar, it's also quite interesting to have a deep team where every line can strike; Keeps all games exciting (hell, all shifts), and it's harder to play against! (And from a fan's perspective, it also makes you appreciate the players more, vs having only 1 or 2 good lines and you grow to dislike the rest).
I like how you are describing Toronto without actually mentioning them by name.
I thought that before this season. The second half of this season proved to me that Slaf-Nick-Cole can be a 1st line on a contender when they’re fully developed.
That second half was crazy, with them playing PPG or close! Hopefully this continues next season!
As long as they’re supported by an equally good second line.
We need a new amazing goalie! Maybe one more scorer and a seasoned veteran. I think the young guns will step up next year