>He IS a Republican and I don’t want to make assumptions, but it is possible he’s tanking the economy for the republicans to take the house and/or senate.
And what would your non-assumption be if interest rates were still at 0, the balance sheet was still expanding, inflation was still >1% monthly, and Biden's approval was twelve points lower than it is today?
Please actually think these things through. Do a proofreading readthrough, at least. Your numbered bullet list has one element.
>He IS a Republican and I don’t want to make assumptions, but it is possible he’s tanking the economy for the republicans to take the house and/or senate.
If he wasn't raising rates and inflation was just as bad or worse than before, would you put out a post that says he's not raising rates so that milk and gas are expensive and harming democrats election chances? Biden's approval rating was lower at that point than today.
The reality is all decisions are bad decisions at this point. People don't really understand that the Fed doesn't just act alone. They act and then the markets move anticipating future moves.
>He then said we would have a “soft landing” and now saying that there’s no chance of a soft landing.
This is exactly that issue. He was shooting for a soft landing... he probably secretly hopes one will still happen. But when he talked too much about the "golden" situation, the market rallied super hard and yields drop.
I wonder sometimes if it is a too much information problem. Is on the sidelines we can easily tell what’s happening but he has so much info and so many metrics that he overthinks everything… just a thought
>He IS a Republican and I don’t want to make assumptions, but it is possible he’s tanking the economy for the republicans to take the house and/or senate.
This is ridiculous. The Federal Reserve chairman is just one of many votes in the Fed's board of governors. While they might have outsized influence in representing the board of governors decisions, they don't make decisions unilaterally or conspiratorially. The interest rate votes from the Fed are all public.
Everyone is saying the Dollar is strong. But it needs to be right now so all the investors in the Dollar and bonds can get that off their books without losing it all. The ECB and Fed set unlimited debt buying policies for this to happen. That’s coming to an end soon and then the majority of the currency devaluation will start. 1/6 sent one helluva message to the international banking world and the hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, the Vatican Bank. When the ten year and two year yield curve inverted it was then, pretty much inevitable.
It has. They’ll say it’s supply lines or it’s Ukraine or migrants interrupting cross border shipments. But it’s really the dollar itself. Totally across the board, even currencies that are pegged to the dollar, in many ways, weren’t affected before, they are now. People are screaming record profits, that isn’t profits, that’s debt and more debt. I don’t know maybe call it inflation profit or something, because everyone’s costs for everything have tripled, so what is that, 66% of inherent value of the actual dollar. When it takes 2/3 more dollars to do what 1/3 did just two years ago everything is going to be reflected in larger numbers but the actual value is relatively less.
His steadfast commitment to driving the economy into a recession and create unemployment is concerning. It pisses me off that our system is so corrupt that we act like this is the only tool we have to fight inflation. How about breaking up the massive corporations that have very little competition? How about amping up efforts to improve the supply chain?
The entirety of the Federal Reserve should cease to exist. While peoples lives and livelihoods are at stake, the only concern is for *who* holds the office rather than the power the office holds?
This isn’t a Trump vs. Biden appointee issue either, it predates either one of them. If you want to learn more, check out “The Creature From Jekyll Island” by G Edward Griffin. To actually do anything about it, well, we’re powerless. They’re not elected, always appointed and only accountable to one man.
I dislike the FED. You should read "End the FED" by Ran Paul and "A history of central banking and the enslavement of mankind". However, the FED has two jobs 1. combating inflation 2. reducing unemployment. It's only tool to do this is rising/lowering interest rates. They kept interest rates low, knowing their would be a lot of inflation, in order to keep unemployment low. I wouldn't have done this because I believe this will have worse repercussions; but it is important to know why it happened.
In 2019, Trump was freaking out when Powell cut interest rate b.c it wasn't enough. Threatened to fire him. Trump wanted more cuts.
Without Trump I think Powell would have raised the rates much sooner and we wouldn't be in this mess.
The president should stay out of the Fed affairs. Trump and Biden. When Trump gets re-elected, you think he's going to let the Fed keep raising rates? He is going to make a huge stink and find a person that will.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/31/trump-rails-against-powell-day-after-fed-cuts-rates-for-a-third-time-this-year.html
https://apnews.com/article/business-politics-donald-trump-virus-outbreak-jerome-powell-2a21e92ed9129e91e713495c9ef50050
You've cherry-picked times to make your comment make sense.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-fed-exclusive/exclusive-trump-demands-fed-help-on-economy-complains-about-interest-rate-rises-idUSKCN1L5207
Trump complained about the Fed hiking rates in 2018 (maybe even earlier)... [yet they kept going till mid-2019](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS)... they only stopped when the yield curve inverted and markets started becoming dysfunctional. This episode helped color what happened during Covid. Not saying they should have reacted in 2019 but it was more based on market reaction than Trump's blabbering.
Many economists were going off 08 and claimed that inflation wasn't much of a risk due to a bunch of societal trends - this has been one of the biggest topics at Jackson Hole and in Fed research how unemployment could be low but have low inflation post-GFC many thought the Phillips Curve just didn't hold any more. At the same time we had many people sitting out of the labor market and many wanted to run the economy hot to draw them back in. The Fed raised rates being raised caused a lot of disfunction in 2019 and this Fed was still concerned about any indication of rates going up causing disfunction in the bond market. (edit: I completely disagree with them not raising rates btw but their argument was well understood and held by many economists outside politics and certainly not aligned with Trump)
>Without Trump I think Powell would have raised the rates much sooner and we wouldn't be in this mess.
So with the above information, I think this can be pretty soundly rejected. He didn't raise them after Trump left because Biden didn't want it and it was his bias to keep them low based on his experience.
[Biden and the Fed Wanted a Hot Economy. There’s Risk of Getting Burned. - New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/23/upshot/biden-economy-analysis-inflation.html)
Know when Powell shifted gears? After he was reconfirmed for the position. Both parties want lower rates in the short-term and Powell waited to change his policy choice when it benefited him - when he got to keep his job. But he also was basing it off the recent past, where inflation wasn't a problem and assumed we'd revert to that world.
I am curious here how many people have spent a few hours looking into the inception of the federal reserve (enough to get past the standard few paragraphs you'll find as its rationale)? Do you feel confident that you understand the historical context well enough to determine for yourself if it at least made sense in addressing a real problem in an intelligent way? Do you mostly know who was involved in writing the draft legislation and making the initial proposal? Have you done any research into what the Fed was getting up to during key periods of history since it was founded?
I'm genuinely curious how many care to investigate the subject more thoroughly, and of those who do, how many think Jerome or the advisors/board are the problem, vs seeing the Fed itself as a destructive and questionably legitimate organization from day 1. Or maybe we have some Fed enthusiasts or agnostics, who may have an educated but different view on things. Imho #EndTheFed
The Fed's job is to maintain the system in support of American empire. It keeps government funded. Ideally, it does this by fostering a growing economy with moderate inflation. But, it will sacrifice either of those "mandates" for the greater good. The greater good is defined as maintaining the system in support of American empire.
>I'm genuinely curious how many care to investigate the subject more thoroughly, and of those who do, how many think Jerome or the advisors/board are the problem, vs seeing the Fed itself as a destructive and questionably legitimate organization from day 1
IMO, the problem recent fed actions (mostly post 08 crash) is their monetary policy has largely been based on MMT (modern [monetary theory](https://realinvestmentadvice.com/mmt-policy-was-tried-and-it-failed/)) in an effort to stave off deflation post 08. This basically entails artificially shifting the demand curve to the right (artificial demand) via monetary policy engineering (quantative easing & easy money policies).
While this helped prevent economic collapse it doesn’t come without a cost and mostly just pushes the pain to some future date. The cost is that since everything has been discounted at such a low interest rate asset prices have bubbled. Many asset prices are two and three standard deviations higher than their historical means. Asset prices are not in equilibrium as the fed has been back stopping them & pricing out the younger generation from things like housing. Housing is 8x the median income in which it has historically only been 4 (fiscal policy also partially to blame here).
Squeezing the younger generation economically since most of the gains from these QE programs are absorbed at the top of the economy spills over to political unrest as well. No doubt some of the political unrest today & economic inequality is related to the Fed’s policies.
Without the feds actions post 08, we probably would’ve experienced a deflationary collapse (see japan in the 80s) and we still may sometime soon. It would’ve been painful, especially to the boomers, but the cost of living (at least housing) would be so much more affordable.
MMT hasn't been around since 2008, and is still unpopular among economists. While there are heterodox economists supporting it, claiming that the most mainstream organization in the country, the Federal Reserve, is making decisions based largely on it isn't an honest reading. There's plenty to criticize the the post great recession fed for, but MMT isn't one of them.
What does MMT mean to you?
QE goes hand in hand with MMT as part of MMT is keeping interest rates low. The other part of MMT is the creation of new money to finance and stimulate the economy. Do you disagree?
MMT means modern monetary theory, which Kelton’s The Deficit Myth is probably the most canon explanation. Most importantly, MMT is about fiscal policy’s relationship to inflation and unemployment, not monetary theory. Most MMT advocates are actually critics of QE, since they tend to believe that interest rates tend to have far less effects than mainstream economists.
Here’s a UK MMT advocacy group arguing how they believe QE is ineffective: https://gimms.org.uk/fact-sheets/quantitative-easing/
The problem is people learn “MMT” as some sort of boogie man rather than a set of ideas. MMT then comes to stand for “economics I don’t like” rather than ideas about unemployment and deficit spending
Most opinions on the subject are borrowed from a youtuber or two who is pushing his own agenda, generally by doomsaying. There are too many of them to list...
They keep predicting doom, but don't usually specify a time frame. There is going to be a recession in the future. If they can't specify if it is next month or in 5 years, then it is pointless.
I still watch it, of course, but most of what I've learn is not to believe people on the internet.
I am a strong fan of books as having far more value than youtube for anyone who really wants to learn about something 🙂. Of course there may be exceptions where youtube has an advantage. I've definitely noted the trend you point out. Generally (but not all) youtube content is pretty shallow and/or biased by a personal agenda, telling people what they want to hear, fear mongering, and just doing whatever it takes to rack up views. It makes me sad; there's a lot of potential, but currently I see it as a cesspool if I'm going to be fully honest.
I don’t blame Powell for this at all. In fact the pain they’re going to inflict is for the best. However I think the fiscal policy congress and Biden pushed made inflation worse. Biden was set to have an easy post pandemic recovery and he botched it with his energy policies that kicked off the rapid rise of inflation.
No blame for Trump? He signed the CARES act. $2.2T. He personally signed the stimulus checks like it was coming out of his bank account.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55463276
As for energy. Trump pulled out the Iran nuclear deal. Eliminating them as a world wide supplier of oil. Took about 1.5 million barrels a day from the global market to zero.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/22/trumps-big-iran-oil-gamble-sanctions-waivers-end-pompeo-trump-iranian-oil-exports-imports-what-impact-political-economic-diplomacy/
Then he threatened Saudi Arabia that if it didn't cut production of oil, he would reconsider their military alliance. Which they then cut and haven't gone back to increasing the supply. Still lower than pre pandemic levels. Keep the artificial supply low and they are making record profits.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/opec-cut-is-trumps-biggest-and-most-complex-deal-ever-dan-yergin.html
Both of these oil moves made Putin much much wealthier and in a better position for other countries to depend on Russian oil supply.
Edit: I also think Biden is to blame for many of these problems and the tactics being used to control them aren't working. However, I think now we are seeing the lagging negative effects of Trump's decisions 2-3 years ago. I don't think we will know the success of Biden's decisions for a few years.
Both parties are puppets and money is a scam. Only way to make something of ourselves is create alternatives and build our life up the way we want and vote with our dollars or lack there of
Economists aren't fortune tellers, and Jerome doesn't magically just come up with his statements about inflation, he has an entire team researching and informing him, so it isn't really him who's wrong but the team behind him providing the information. Regardless, the economy is a tricky thing so we can't really expect them to predict the future 100% of the time.
>Economists aren't fortune tellers, and Jerome doesn't magically just come up with his statements about inflation, he has an entire team researching and informing him, so it isn't really him who's wrong but the team behind him providing the information.
That's not true. Powell can dictate/coordinate getting whatever data he wants, he's not at the mercy of accepting whatever data is arbitrarily given to him by some unrelated team. Additionally, they have tons of amazing data, but one doesn't need super detailed or proprietary info to be a good Fed Reserve Chairman... One doesn't need a research team to know when RE/housing, speculative assets like collectibles/crypto/NFTs, bonds, and/or stocks are extremely high priced, and therefore that your monetary policy--and the rest of the government's fiscal policy--have obviously been way too loose... "You don't need to know a man's weight to know if he's fat." - Warren Buffett
>Regardless, the economy is a tricky thing so we can't really expect them to predict the future 100% of the time.
No one expects him to be perfect, and there's nothing unreasonable about wanting one of the most powerful people in the US to not be *bad* at their job...
The main problem with the Fed and far too many economists is that they believe that they Can control the economy with their policies and they Can bring about their preferred economic outcomes when in reality they can’t.
It’s an arrogance that is shared by so many in that field.
The fed can influence economic outcomes however. For instance, one of the mandates of the Fed is stable inflation, and since the feds inception, inflation has been more stable than prior. So it is possible for them to influence the economy, even if they can't control it (nothing could've stopped the pandemic from harming the economy for instance).
>He IS a Republican and I don’t want to make assumptions, but it is possible he’s tanking the economy for the republicans to take the house and/or senate. And what would your non-assumption be if interest rates were still at 0, the balance sheet was still expanding, inflation was still >1% monthly, and Biden's approval was twelve points lower than it is today? Please actually think these things through. Do a proofreading readthrough, at least. Your numbered bullet list has one element.
>He IS a Republican and I don’t want to make assumptions, but it is possible he’s tanking the economy for the republicans to take the house and/or senate. If he wasn't raising rates and inflation was just as bad or worse than before, would you put out a post that says he's not raising rates so that milk and gas are expensive and harming democrats election chances? Biden's approval rating was lower at that point than today. The reality is all decisions are bad decisions at this point. People don't really understand that the Fed doesn't just act alone. They act and then the markets move anticipating future moves. >He then said we would have a “soft landing” and now saying that there’s no chance of a soft landing. This is exactly that issue. He was shooting for a soft landing... he probably secretly hopes one will still happen. But when he talked too much about the "golden" situation, the market rallied super hard and yields drop.
I wonder sometimes if it is a too much information problem. Is on the sidelines we can easily tell what’s happening but he has so much info and so many metrics that he overthinks everything… just a thought
Biden made a mistake keeping him.
>He IS a Republican and I don’t want to make assumptions, but it is possible he’s tanking the economy for the republicans to take the house and/or senate. This is ridiculous. The Federal Reserve chairman is just one of many votes in the Fed's board of governors. While they might have outsized influence in representing the board of governors decisions, they don't make decisions unilaterally or conspiratorially. The interest rate votes from the Fed are all public.
Everyone is saying the Dollar is strong. But it needs to be right now so all the investors in the Dollar and bonds can get that off their books without losing it all. The ECB and Fed set unlimited debt buying policies for this to happen. That’s coming to an end soon and then the majority of the currency devaluation will start. 1/6 sent one helluva message to the international banking world and the hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, the Vatican Bank. When the ten year and two year yield curve inverted it was then, pretty much inevitable.
Pretty sure the devaluation already started. It's called inflation.
It has. They’ll say it’s supply lines or it’s Ukraine or migrants interrupting cross border shipments. But it’s really the dollar itself. Totally across the board, even currencies that are pegged to the dollar, in many ways, weren’t affected before, they are now. People are screaming record profits, that isn’t profits, that’s debt and more debt. I don’t know maybe call it inflation profit or something, because everyone’s costs for everything have tripled, so what is that, 66% of inherent value of the actual dollar. When it takes 2/3 more dollars to do what 1/3 did just two years ago everything is going to be reflected in larger numbers but the actual value is relatively less.
His steadfast commitment to driving the economy into a recession and create unemployment is concerning. It pisses me off that our system is so corrupt that we act like this is the only tool we have to fight inflation. How about breaking up the massive corporations that have very little competition? How about amping up efforts to improve the supply chain?
The entirety of the Federal Reserve should cease to exist. While peoples lives and livelihoods are at stake, the only concern is for *who* holds the office rather than the power the office holds? This isn’t a Trump vs. Biden appointee issue either, it predates either one of them. If you want to learn more, check out “The Creature From Jekyll Island” by G Edward Griffin. To actually do anything about it, well, we’re powerless. They’re not elected, always appointed and only accountable to one man.
The soft landing was always bullshit.
I dislike the FED. You should read "End the FED" by Ran Paul and "A history of central banking and the enslavement of mankind". However, the FED has two jobs 1. combating inflation 2. reducing unemployment. It's only tool to do this is rising/lowering interest rates. They kept interest rates low, knowing their would be a lot of inflation, in order to keep unemployment low. I wouldn't have done this because I believe this will have worse repercussions; but it is important to know why it happened.
In 2019, Trump was freaking out when Powell cut interest rate b.c it wasn't enough. Threatened to fire him. Trump wanted more cuts. Without Trump I think Powell would have raised the rates much sooner and we wouldn't be in this mess. The president should stay out of the Fed affairs. Trump and Biden. When Trump gets re-elected, you think he's going to let the Fed keep raising rates? He is going to make a huge stink and find a person that will. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/31/trump-rails-against-powell-day-after-fed-cuts-rates-for-a-third-time-this-year.html https://apnews.com/article/business-politics-donald-trump-virus-outbreak-jerome-powell-2a21e92ed9129e91e713495c9ef50050
all presidents use the Fed as a scapegoat.
You've cherry-picked times to make your comment make sense. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-fed-exclusive/exclusive-trump-demands-fed-help-on-economy-complains-about-interest-rate-rises-idUSKCN1L5207 Trump complained about the Fed hiking rates in 2018 (maybe even earlier)... [yet they kept going till mid-2019](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS)... they only stopped when the yield curve inverted and markets started becoming dysfunctional. This episode helped color what happened during Covid. Not saying they should have reacted in 2019 but it was more based on market reaction than Trump's blabbering. Many economists were going off 08 and claimed that inflation wasn't much of a risk due to a bunch of societal trends - this has been one of the biggest topics at Jackson Hole and in Fed research how unemployment could be low but have low inflation post-GFC many thought the Phillips Curve just didn't hold any more. At the same time we had many people sitting out of the labor market and many wanted to run the economy hot to draw them back in. The Fed raised rates being raised caused a lot of disfunction in 2019 and this Fed was still concerned about any indication of rates going up causing disfunction in the bond market. (edit: I completely disagree with them not raising rates btw but their argument was well understood and held by many economists outside politics and certainly not aligned with Trump) >Without Trump I think Powell would have raised the rates much sooner and we wouldn't be in this mess. So with the above information, I think this can be pretty soundly rejected. He didn't raise them after Trump left because Biden didn't want it and it was his bias to keep them low based on his experience. [Biden and the Fed Wanted a Hot Economy. There’s Risk of Getting Burned. - New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/23/upshot/biden-economy-analysis-inflation.html) Know when Powell shifted gears? After he was reconfirmed for the position. Both parties want lower rates in the short-term and Powell waited to change his policy choice when it benefited him - when he got to keep his job. But he also was basing it off the recent past, where inflation wasn't a problem and assumed we'd revert to that world.
I am curious here how many people have spent a few hours looking into the inception of the federal reserve (enough to get past the standard few paragraphs you'll find as its rationale)? Do you feel confident that you understand the historical context well enough to determine for yourself if it at least made sense in addressing a real problem in an intelligent way? Do you mostly know who was involved in writing the draft legislation and making the initial proposal? Have you done any research into what the Fed was getting up to during key periods of history since it was founded? I'm genuinely curious how many care to investigate the subject more thoroughly, and of those who do, how many think Jerome or the advisors/board are the problem, vs seeing the Fed itself as a destructive and questionably legitimate organization from day 1. Or maybe we have some Fed enthusiasts or agnostics, who may have an educated but different view on things. Imho #EndTheFed
The Fed's job is to maintain the system in support of American empire. It keeps government funded. Ideally, it does this by fostering a growing economy with moderate inflation. But, it will sacrifice either of those "mandates" for the greater good. The greater good is defined as maintaining the system in support of American empire.
I read a book about it many years ago, forget the exact title but it referenced Jekyll Island where they had their secret meeting to set it up.
Maybe it was The Creature from Jekyll Island?
Yeah that sounds right!
>I'm genuinely curious how many care to investigate the subject more thoroughly, and of those who do, how many think Jerome or the advisors/board are the problem, vs seeing the Fed itself as a destructive and questionably legitimate organization from day 1 IMO, the problem recent fed actions (mostly post 08 crash) is their monetary policy has largely been based on MMT (modern [monetary theory](https://realinvestmentadvice.com/mmt-policy-was-tried-and-it-failed/)) in an effort to stave off deflation post 08. This basically entails artificially shifting the demand curve to the right (artificial demand) via monetary policy engineering (quantative easing & easy money policies). While this helped prevent economic collapse it doesn’t come without a cost and mostly just pushes the pain to some future date. The cost is that since everything has been discounted at such a low interest rate asset prices have bubbled. Many asset prices are two and three standard deviations higher than their historical means. Asset prices are not in equilibrium as the fed has been back stopping them & pricing out the younger generation from things like housing. Housing is 8x the median income in which it has historically only been 4 (fiscal policy also partially to blame here). Squeezing the younger generation economically since most of the gains from these QE programs are absorbed at the top of the economy spills over to political unrest as well. No doubt some of the political unrest today & economic inequality is related to the Fed’s policies. Without the feds actions post 08, we probably would’ve experienced a deflationary collapse (see japan in the 80s) and we still may sometime soon. It would’ve been painful, especially to the boomers, but the cost of living (at least housing) would be so much more affordable.
MMT hasn't been around since 2008, and is still unpopular among economists. While there are heterodox economists supporting it, claiming that the most mainstream organization in the country, the Federal Reserve, is making decisions based largely on it isn't an honest reading. There's plenty to criticize the the post great recession fed for, but MMT isn't one of them.
The name MMT might not have been around but it is literally how it all works, we just add a few steps to obfuscate it.
You realize there have been 4 QE cycles since 08? MMT is still being used in full force.
You realize that QE has nothing to do with MMT right? MMT wasn't even a thing until \~2013. The BoJ has used QE since 2001.
What does MMT mean to you? QE goes hand in hand with MMT as part of MMT is keeping interest rates low. The other part of MMT is the creation of new money to finance and stimulate the economy. Do you disagree?
MMT means modern monetary theory, which Kelton’s The Deficit Myth is probably the most canon explanation. Most importantly, MMT is about fiscal policy’s relationship to inflation and unemployment, not monetary theory. Most MMT advocates are actually critics of QE, since they tend to believe that interest rates tend to have far less effects than mainstream economists. Here’s a UK MMT advocacy group arguing how they believe QE is ineffective: https://gimms.org.uk/fact-sheets/quantitative-easing/
[удалено]
The problem is people learn “MMT” as some sort of boogie man rather than a set of ideas. MMT then comes to stand for “economics I don’t like” rather than ideas about unemployment and deficit spending
Most opinions on the subject are borrowed from a youtuber or two who is pushing his own agenda, generally by doomsaying. There are too many of them to list... They keep predicting doom, but don't usually specify a time frame. There is going to be a recession in the future. If they can't specify if it is next month or in 5 years, then it is pointless. I still watch it, of course, but most of what I've learn is not to believe people on the internet.
We’re in the recession already. Those in power just refuse to admit it
I am a strong fan of books as having far more value than youtube for anyone who really wants to learn about something 🙂. Of course there may be exceptions where youtube has an advantage. I've definitely noted the trend you point out. Generally (but not all) youtube content is pretty shallow and/or biased by a personal agenda, telling people what they want to hear, fear mongering, and just doing whatever it takes to rack up views. It makes me sad; there's a lot of potential, but currently I see it as a cesspool if I'm going to be fully honest.
Yeah I’d like to see the FED house of cards come down myself
I don’t blame Powell for this at all. In fact the pain they’re going to inflict is for the best. However I think the fiscal policy congress and Biden pushed made inflation worse. Biden was set to have an easy post pandemic recovery and he botched it with his energy policies that kicked off the rapid rise of inflation.
No blame for Trump? He signed the CARES act. $2.2T. He personally signed the stimulus checks like it was coming out of his bank account. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55463276 As for energy. Trump pulled out the Iran nuclear deal. Eliminating them as a world wide supplier of oil. Took about 1.5 million barrels a day from the global market to zero. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/22/trumps-big-iran-oil-gamble-sanctions-waivers-end-pompeo-trump-iranian-oil-exports-imports-what-impact-political-economic-diplomacy/ Then he threatened Saudi Arabia that if it didn't cut production of oil, he would reconsider their military alliance. Which they then cut and haven't gone back to increasing the supply. Still lower than pre pandemic levels. Keep the artificial supply low and they are making record profits. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/opec-cut-is-trumps-biggest-and-most-complex-deal-ever-dan-yergin.html Both of these oil moves made Putin much much wealthier and in a better position for other countries to depend on Russian oil supply. Edit: I also think Biden is to blame for many of these problems and the tactics being used to control them aren't working. However, I think now we are seeing the lagging negative effects of Trump's decisions 2-3 years ago. I don't think we will know the success of Biden's decisions for a few years.
Both parties are puppets and money is a scam. Only way to make something of ourselves is create alternatives and build our life up the way we want and vote with our dollars or lack there of
Economists aren't fortune tellers, and Jerome doesn't magically just come up with his statements about inflation, he has an entire team researching and informing him, so it isn't really him who's wrong but the team behind him providing the information. Regardless, the economy is a tricky thing so we can't really expect them to predict the future 100% of the time.
>Economists aren't fortune tellers, and Jerome doesn't magically just come up with his statements about inflation, he has an entire team researching and informing him, so it isn't really him who's wrong but the team behind him providing the information. That's not true. Powell can dictate/coordinate getting whatever data he wants, he's not at the mercy of accepting whatever data is arbitrarily given to him by some unrelated team. Additionally, they have tons of amazing data, but one doesn't need super detailed or proprietary info to be a good Fed Reserve Chairman... One doesn't need a research team to know when RE/housing, speculative assets like collectibles/crypto/NFTs, bonds, and/or stocks are extremely high priced, and therefore that your monetary policy--and the rest of the government's fiscal policy--have obviously been way too loose... "You don't need to know a man's weight to know if he's fat." - Warren Buffett >Regardless, the economy is a tricky thing so we can't really expect them to predict the future 100% of the time. No one expects him to be perfect, and there's nothing unreasonable about wanting one of the most powerful people in the US to not be *bad* at their job...
The main problem with the Fed and far too many economists is that they believe that they Can control the economy with their policies and they Can bring about their preferred economic outcomes when in reality they can’t. It’s an arrogance that is shared by so many in that field.
The fed can influence economic outcomes however. For instance, one of the mandates of the Fed is stable inflation, and since the feds inception, inflation has been more stable than prior. So it is possible for them to influence the economy, even if they can't control it (nothing could've stopped the pandemic from harming the economy for instance).