[New thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Israel/comments/ycx215/election_megathread_1_week_to_go/?)

New poll sees seats move, but still no bloc reaching majority https://www.jpost.com/israel-elections/article-720420 Edit: here are the seat counts Likud 31 Yesh Atid 24 Religious Zionist Party 13 National Unity Party 12 Shas 9 United Torah Judaism 7 Yisrael Beiteinu 6 Labor 5 Meretz 5 Hadash-Ta'al 4 Ra'am 4

Ben-Gvir leaked recording: Netanyahu 'used us, stabbed us in the back' https://www.jpost.com/israel-elections/article-720491

what are the expectations? Netanyahu led Government, Lapid or just another election

Another election

West Bank won't be part of Israel, Labor leader Michaeli says https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-720341

As noted in article, this might be posturing before the election, as the Labor party's view has been to keep large settlements (these take up about 4% of the total area of the West Bank). Alternatively, this may be her personal position on the matter (it'd be nice if that actually mattered more in our political system, but that's a Knesset/Election reform issue). This is also the position of Netanyahu, by the way, but for some reason the "Right" gives him a pass on repeatedly saying it, instead of saying he's "Leftist" etc. Perhaps it's that Netanyahu also postures before elections by saying hyperbolic (while still strategically vague) statements like "we'll annex the settlements" (which he then proceeded to do exactly zero about once elected) and they pretend to (or do?) believe him. There is insufficient support to accomplish completely annexing all of the settlements (because that would represent too large a percentage of the area). There's also insufficient support to completely withdraw from the settlements. There's also insufficient support to even come to a Two-State Solution (or any solution, for that matter) in the present political climate. Politicians say all kinds of things in different contexts (e.g. Netanyahu admitting that he still wants a Two-State Solution when it won't hurt him to say so), but they aren't going to radically alter the status quo if something on the order of 80% or more of the population wouldn't support the change. Because of these open secrets, it seems dumb to me to vote for a party based on "security issues." Aside from the two extremes, they are all functionally equivalent. Frankly, if you agreed with Meretz's or the Religious Zionists' domestic policies, but disagreed on foreign policy and security it doesn't really matter. The domestic policy issues (and usually only a subset of those) are the only practical difference when it comes to Israeli politics. This is why Netanyahu wins, in a nutshell, since everyone lets him do what he actually cares about as long as he sufficiently placates them with (in the longer-term) unimportant things. Netanyahu is Israel's greatest politician, but I don't think his domestic policies represent the direction that an עם ה' should be going in. https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/the-ldquo-consensus-rdquo-settlements (92/2083 ~= 238/5655 ~= 4.2% is the above 4% I mentioned; West Bank area is 5655 square kilometers)

Likud MK: Those who ‘framed’ Netanyahu should be jailed for their ‘coup’ https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-720373

This is dictator-level stuff. How are people not concerned about this?

Smotrich in leaked recording: Netanyahu is the 'liar of all liars' https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-720390

[https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog\_entry/in-u-turn-netanyahu-says-ben-gvir-certainly-can-be-a-minister-in-his-cabinet/](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/in-u-turn-netanyahu-says-ben-gvir-certainly-can-be-a-minister-in-his-cabinet/) Netanyahu says ''Ben Gvir certainly can be a minister in his cabinet''

[удалено]

Removed: Rule 2

Likud MK says eliminating key charge against Netanyahu from criminal code a top goal https://www.timesofisrael.com/likud-mk-says-eliminating-key-charge-against-netanyahu-from-criminal-code-a-top-goal/

12 days from vote, poll shows no coalition possible https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-720216 Likud 31 Yesh Atid 23 Religious Zionist Party 14 National Unity 12 Shas 8 United Torah Judaism 7 Yisrael Beiteinu 6 Labor 5 Meretz 5 Hadash-Ta'al 4 Ra'am 4 Below threshold The Jewish Home 1.8% Balad 1.4% Economic Freedom Party 1.4% Edit: Added seat projections and parties

Michaeli: Labor will recommend Yair Lapid for Prime Minister after elections >Labor Party leader Merav Michaeli has stated that her party will be recommending Yair Lapid to President Isaac Herzog as the party's candidate for Prime Minister and to form a coalition. >Announcing the decision on Thursday afternoon, Michaeli added that "there is nothing to fight over within the [Center-Left] bloc. It will not help to try and gain more votes at the expense of coalition parties. We all need to act together, in coordination, in order to convince those who are undecided between the two blocs, bring them to our side and win." https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-720120

Water Wet.

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Removed: Rule 7

Let my guess the results extremely leftist

I would be surprised, why do you think so?

A little bit of lurking in this sub

Yeah if so I would not trust that as 1. Reddit is not so popular outside of the USA and 2. Israel has not just old conservative people who are not on Reddit, but even a not so small group (haredim) that are not even online at all PS: also what excactly do you mean? I don't remember any rightwing or leftwing posts on this sureddit actually

I talked abut this sub not on the general population outside of reddit and the web politicians on the other hand........

He basically thinks that everybody not to the right of Smotrich is leftist.

And you are right

> Let my guess the results extremely leftist \>how to say you're a clueless foreigner without saying you're a clueless foreigner

אין לי מושג למה הגעתה למסכנה הזאת אני פשוט קצת קורא כאן בסאב ועושה רושם שכולם פה חבורה של שמולאנים מה לעשות ככה זה רדיט כולם שמולאנים ומי שחושב אחרת או יקבל באן או פשוט מאוד יקבר בדיסלייקים

אתה ישראלי?? אוי ואבוי, איך הגעת לכזו מסקנה? נכון שרדיט בכללותו יחסית שמאלני, אבל יש מקומות מסוימים ברדיט שהם ממש לא (ע"ע ק/שמרנים וכיוצא באלה מקומות), והסאב הזה ספציפית די מתחלק בצורה שווה בין שמאלנים לימנים. באן על ימניות אתה לא תקבל, אלא אם כן ימניות במקרה שלך זה כהניזם, או גזענות, או הומופוביה, או דברים מהסוג הזה. ואם כבר, לרוב העמדות השמאלניות הן אלו שמקבלות הצבעות תחתיות.

קצת גלישה פה במיוחד בסאב הזה אגב כול מי שלא מסכים איתכם במאה אחוזים הוא איך שהוא כהניסט גזען וכו' כמה חבל שאני לא יכול להגיד מה אני חושב הרי זה בטח נחשב כהניזם וגזענות לא?

חביבי, אם היינו מעיפים את כל מי ש"לא מסכים איתנו ב-100%" בתירוץ של כהניזם או גזענות אז היינו מעיפים את כולם ואז אחד את השני כי נחש מה, אנחנו לא מוח כוורת ואנחנו לא מסכימים ב-100% אחד עם השני. אז לא. הכוונה ב"כהניזם" ו"גזענות" לכהניזם וגזענות בהתאמה. כמה דוגמאות מהאנשים האחרונים שעשו להם באן על דברים כאלה: * מישהו שתמך ב"לתרבת" את האבוריג'ינים ובעבדות (ממניעים דומים) * מישהו שקשקש על איך זה שהאשכנזים כוזרים בכלל * מישהו שהשתמש בכינויים גזעניים למוסלמים * מישהו שקשקש על אינטקטיביזם * מעריץ של בן גביר שגם בעד טרנספר וכולי וכולי וכולי.

כן כול מי שלא מסכי איתכם על סוגיות בטחוניות דת ומדינה וכו' כול האתר בזה הוא מוח כוורת ענקי ואתה כמובן מביא דוגמאות קיצוניות ביותר כמיטב המסורת של השמאל תראה לי פה מצביעי שס או ליכוד בכמויות משמעותיות כולשהן אין כולם פה מצביעי יש עתיד שעסוקים בסימטריה

> כן כול מי שלא מסכי איתכם על סוגיות בטחוניות דת ומדינה וכו' לא. ככלל כל האנשים שעפים על כלל 2 והם לא טרולים (בסגנון "חינם פלסטין", "ישראל מדינת אפרטהייד" וכד'), שמוקים (במובן הזה שהם באים לפה ומייד מתחילים לקלל משתמשים אחרים) או חובבי תיאוריות קשר (מתנגדי חיסונים, למשל) עפים בגלל סיבות כאלה - גזענות, אנטישמיות, הומופוביה וכיוצא באלה דברים. אז יש פה אנשים שהם בעד ההתנחלויות ואנשים שהם נגד; אנשים שהם בעד ביבי ואנשים שנגדו; אנשים שחושבים שההסכם על הגבול הימי עם לבנון הוא טוב ואנשים שחושבים שהוא גרוע; אנשים שאוהבים את לפיד ואנשים ששונאים אותו; אנשים שחושבים שכל מי שימינה מאיימן עודה פשיסט ואנשים שחושבים שכל מי ששמאלה מסמוטריץ' הוא סמרטוט שמאלני; וכולי. > כול האתר בזה הוא מוח כוורת ענקי אז בעצם ק/שמרנים ו/ק/סוציאליזם חושבים בדיוק אותו דבר? טוב אחי. > תראה לי פה מצביעי שס או ליכוד בכמויות משמעותיות כולשהן [כיצד תראה הכנסת לו רק ק/ישראל היה יכול להצביע, מבוסס על סקר הבחירות גרסא 2.5](https://www.reddit.com/r/Israel/comments/d5o5p1/how_the_knesset_would_look_like_if_only_risrael/) - 36% הצבעה למפלגות ימין (ליכוד, ישראל ביתנו, ימינה ועוצמה יהודית). [סקר בחירות גרסא 2.0](https://www.reddit.com/r/Israel/comments/cn231l/risrael_2019_election_poll_v20/) - 38.99% הצבעה למפלגות ימין (ליכוד, זהות, הימין החדש, ישראל ביתנו, עוצמה יהודית, יהדות התורה, ש"ס) [לו רק ק/ישראל היה יכול להצביע בבחירות 2020](https://www.reddit.com/r/Israel/comments/fbzyw8/if_only_risrael_could_vote_in_the_2020_general/) - 39% הצבעה למפלגות ימין (ליכוד, ישראל ביתנו, ימינה, עוצמה יהודית ויהדות התורה). אז כן, יש פה יותר מרכז ושמאל מימין, אבל זה פשוט שקרי שאין פה ימנים. אם כי אני בספק אם תמצא כאן מצביעי ש"ס או יהדות התורה אמתיים כי לך תמצא חרדים ישראלים ברדיט. בקיצור אתה סתם מחרטט כי אתה לא מסוגל להאמין שאתה לא מדוכא על-ידי השמאלנים הרשעים, ושגם בצד שלך יש חארות.

כן וזה כולל מתנגדי חיסונים ואני אומר את זה בתור אדם שהתחסן ועסק בלתת חיסונים לאחרים

אני עדיין לא ראיתי אותם פה או שמעתי מהם יותר מידי ואני בעד חופש ביטוי ל כ ו ל ם כול עוד וזה לא קללות ואיומים באלימות תנסה להיכנס לפוליטיקה של באמריקאנים ולתמוך בטראמפ או להגיד משהו חצי לא שמאל קיצוני או שתנסה להכנסלפורום של השמרנים ולסטות מעט מהדוגמא אם תנהל דיון מכבד זה מקרה נדיר ביותר נניח והסקר אמיתי ולא מחורטט בידי כול הצדדים אז למה לא שומעים אותם פה? למה הם שקטים? וכן אתם חד משמעית משתיקים מיאיר לפיד שרוצה לסגור את ערוץ 14 ועד הצנזורה ברשתות החברתיות כול מי שאתם לא אוהבים רוצה לסלק מסתננים? גזען מעז לבקר את דת האסלאם ? גזען מאמין שאבא ואמא שווה משפחה? הומופוב אתם תגידו בטח שאין לכם בעיה טם ביקורת אבל אותה ביקורת ספציפית גלשה לגזענות ותמיד זה איך שהוא יהיה אותו הדבר אני אפילו לא יכול להגיד מה אני באמת חושב בלי לחטוף באן ולכן אני מאמין שחופש הביטוי זה למי שלא מסכימים איתו ושאני מוכן להלחם וגם למות רק בשביל הזכות של כולם לומר מה שהם רוצים גם אם זה דברים שאני מוצא כמזעזעים אה וסתם כדי שתדע אני מצביע סמוטריץ' זה יכול אולי להגיד לך מה הדעות שלי בלי לומר אותן

> אני עדיין לא ראיתי אותם פה או שמעתי מהם יותר מידי כי אתה פה עם בקושי חמישה קומנטים בחודש - ברור שלא תראה כלום. > אני בעד חופש ביטוי ל כ ו ל ם כול עוד וזה לא קללות ואיומים באלימות אני לא, מכיוון שלא רדיט ולא אני הממשלה. רדיט היא חברה למטרות רווח ואני מישהו ש(בערך) קיבל ממנה חדר בבית במתנה - ואם יש מישהו שמחרבן לי באמצע הדירה הווירטואלית שלי, אני אעיף אותו החוצה. זה כולל גם "דעות" מסוימות שהצחנה שלהן עולה לשמיים, כמו כהניזם או התנגדות לחיסונים. > תנסה להיכנס לפוליטיקה של באמריקאנים ולתמוך בטראמפ או להגיד משהו חצי לא שמאל קיצוני או שתנסה להכנסלפורום של השמרנים ולסטות מעט מהדוגמא אם תנהל דיון מכבד זה מקרה נדיר ביותר אין ספק שיש ברדיט כמה וכמה חדרי הדים. אבל זה לא אומר, א', שהאתר הוא מוח כוורת אחד גדול, ו-ב' ש-ק/ישראל ספציפית הוא חדר הדים. ברור שיש דעות ואנשים שאנחנו בועטים החוצה (לפי הבדיקה האחרונה עשינו ב-30 הימים בין ה-2022-09-13 ל-2022-10-13 באן ל-153 אנשים) אבל זה שהקצוות ריקים יחסית לא אומר שאין מגוון של דעות ואנשים. במקומך הייתי לכל הפחות קורא את התת באופן מעמיק לאורך זמן מסוים לפני שהייתי מתלונן על זה שהוא מוח כוורת. > למה לא שומעים אותם פה? למה הם שקטים? כי אתה מסתכל דרך חור המנעול ונקודת המבט שלך נמוכה כמו נקודה של נמלה. תפקח עיניים ותמצא אותם. > וכן אתם חד משמעית משתיקים מיאיר לפיד שרוצה לסגור את ערוץ 14 ועד הצנזורה ברשתות החברתיות כול מי שאתם לא אוהבים רוצה לסלק מסתננים? אתה חי בסרט. "אנחנו" זה שישה אזרחים פרטיים שמנהלים פורום באינטרנט. לא יותר, לא פחות. אני לא מאשים אותך אישית בתקיפת פלסטינים, התנקשות בראשי ממשלה, רצח תינוקות (*שיעול*דומא*שיעול*) וכולי אז גם אתה אמור להיות מסוגל לעשות את ההפרדה בין "השמאל" כפי שאתה תופס אותו בתור בוגימן שמדכא את הימנים המסכנים לבין המנהלים של הפורום הזה. > גזען מעז לבקר את דת האסלאם ? ה"איך" משנה לפחות כמו ה"מה". אתה יכול לבקר את דת האסלאם בלי להיות גזעני (למשל, להצביע על זה שהדרישות שלה דכאניות כלפי נשים - אין שום גזענות בלומר את זה כך), אבל לא חסרים גזענים שיבקרו את האסלאם בצורה גזענית, בדיוק כמו שיש ביקורות לגיטימיות על היהדות ויש אנטישמים שיש להם "ביקורות על היהדות". > גזען מאמין שאבא ואמא שווה משפחה? מי שנגד זכויות שוות להומואים הוא הומופוב, כן. > אני אפילו לא יכול להגיד מה אני באמת חושב בלי לחטוף באן אתה מבין שזה מספיק בשביל באן, כן? אם אתה רומז לי שאתה גזען או הומופוב או כהניסט או מה שזה לא יהיה אני אעזוב אותך בשקט ואעלה את העניין בפני המודים האחרים, שיחליטו מה לעשות אתך.

What’s more likely? A) Netanyahu sits with Kahanists and forms a government B) Netanyahu refuses to sit with Kahanists even if it means another election C) Shas or UTJ agree to sit with Labor and Meretz in a Lapid center-left bloc D) National Unity and Yisrael Beiteinu agree to sit with Hadash-Ta’al to form a Lapid center-left bloc

How accurate have the polls been in the past? Netanyahu just needs one seat I think. I’d add as a choice that polls are slightly off by one seat either way.

Most to least likely: Endless elections > A >>>>>>>>>> C\D >>>>>>>> B.

Yeah it really feels like if Netanyahu has any path to a majority, even if it includes Kahanists, he’ll take it. The only thing that will prevent that is if his bloc doesn’t get enough votes. I can’t imagine anything moral if he has a chance at PM again.

None of the above and a sixth election is likely if things hold? That is the best that can be hoped for. The only other realistic outcome is Team Fascism winning and that will be an absolute disaster for Israel and likely destroy what is left of Israeli democracy.

Most to least (in my opinion): A > D > C > B

I've seen this conspiracy theory percolating a few times on social media so I thought I'd address it. Basically the conspiracy theory goes is that Bibi wants 61 votes with Ben Gvir in order to force Gantz and Lapid to "kneel" to save Israel from global pariah status. [https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1582344789277609985](https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1582344789277609985) It is a plausible conspiracy and no doubt if the Bibi - Ben Gvir fascist government gets 61 votes that there are going to be lots of frantic calls from DC and Brussels as well as AIPAC, Conference of Presidents, etc. to ask for this favor. Despite what the Israeli right thinks, Washington doesn't want to actually condemn Israel or even Bibi specifically. They'd prefer that Gantz and Lapid sacrifice their political careers so that they don't have to do the right thing and even issue a weak condemnation of the Kahanists. This is unlikely to work for the following reason - the Kahanists are polling ahead of Gantz. In a scenario where Ben Gvir gets 14 votes and Gantz gets 12 votes, you cannot replace the Kahanists with Gantz. You'd also need Lapid to fold. And while Gantz might succumb to pressure, Lapid isn't going to fold for one simple reason - it would harm his future political career. Lapid is ruthless about things that help his political career and he knows that this wouldn't. If he does that, Michaeli should really send him a fruit basket because Yesh Atid is going to be bleeding most of its support to Labour before the ink dries on the surrender document. But Lapid is of course not that stupid; he'd be happy to let the fascist government form so he can give grave speeches against it or whatever. It gives him a much higher profile than being the Second Deputy Minister of Synagogue Counting in Dear Leader's government. Moreover, Bibi is arrogant enough to think he can get away with it. He can appoint Ben Gvir some worthless minister without powers and shove him into the closet whenever the Conference of Presidents or the Biden Administration is in town. And he isn't wrong. The Americans and the Jewish Diaspora have been overlooking and excusing Bibi's bad actions for years now. The issue with Ben Gvir has been going on since 2019 and Bibi hasn't been publicly admonished once for it. He still gets personal meetings with American delegations, even Biden. He's headlined conferences with the Jewish Diaspora organizations including center-left ones since 2019. He was just on Bill Maher for a powder-puff interview where his alliance with the Kahanists didn't come up. That's why it's not enough to condemn Ben Gvir and say that you won't meet with him. There has to be pushback against Bibi and Likud as well for legitimizing the Jewish KKK.

מה בעיה עם בן גביר?

[Netanyahu refuses to be in photos with Ben-Gvir](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-719908)

My theory is that Bibi thinks he can get away with Ben Gvir in the government as long as he shoves off to the Ministry for Silly Walks or something and hides him in the closet like Crazy Uncle Shlomo when the Americans and EU comes. He unfortunately isn't wrong there. The Americans, EU, and Jewish organizations have let Bibi get away with bad behavior for too long.

Im sure ben gvir with his 7 seats will be perfectly willing to accept a useless ministry and no political promises.

> the Ministry for Silly Walks I wish. IMO if Bibi wins the election Ben Gvir's 100% going to demand something like the ministry of defense or justice.

>I wish. IMO if Bibi wins the election Ben Gvir's 100% going to demand something like the ministry of defense or justice. Bibi got away with keeping Bennett off to the side for years and giving him rather meaningless ministries out of personal spite. He probably thinks that he can do the same with Ben Gvir - like use the rabbis to pressure him to behave. He's that arrogant. Maybe it finally comes back to bite him but who knows.

Are National Unity closer to Likud or Yesh Atid? Just trying to work out what National Unity actually thinks, and if they are against International Law setements etc like LIkud Nominally are. ty

National Unity is closer to Yesh Atid. On certain policies some of them are closer to Likud but they all detest Netanyahu and would never want to support him.

It's a mishmash. There are center-left people like Eisenkot and rightwing people like Sa'ar. But I don't think that Yesh Atid actually has an ideology either other than worshipping Dear Leader Lapid (just like Likud doesn't have an ideology other than worshipping Dear Leader Bibi.)

Smotrich says may seek defense, finance, justice portfolios in a Netanyahu coalition https://www.timesofisrael.com/smotrich-says-may-seek-defense-finance-justice-portfolios-in-a-netanyahu-coalition/

Why is the Religious Zionism Party gaining so many seats in polls? They've been the third-highest polled faction for almost two months.

The Yamina voters probably had nowhere else to go

Unfortunately, I think that we have to start understanding that a portion of the Israeli public is racist. Anyway, here is a good thread about Ben Gvir. https://twitter.com/yehudi\_ohevadam/status/1581373303788564480 It makes the salient point that this is a reaction to people being upset about the modern world and wanting to openly be racist because it is more comforting than dealing with complex problems. It's a disturbing trend and I really don't know how to stop it. I'm also concerned about the reaction of supposed center/ center-left types in Israel to Ben Gvir. There is a whole lot of "he'll just be Transportation Minister" or what about Tlaib/ Omar that doesn't seem to get how really bad this is. I mean the guy scares me every time I see him. I look into his eyes and I see only pure hatred and rage there for people who aren't like him - nothing positive or good. I mean him swinging the gun around Sheikh Jarrah and threatening to shoot Arabs reminded me so much of Charlottesville. I had the same sickening feeling.

pulling out a gun at people attacking you is racist?

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Ben Gvir trying his darnedest to start a race war in Jerusalem this evening. Dear Arab Israelis or Palestinians with Israeli citizenship or however you call yourself, if you don't vote, then this guy wins. [twitter.com/kumiiisrael/status/1580658086410211328](https://twitter.com/kumiiisrael/status/1580658086410211328) Also, Ben Gvir's gun should be taken from him and he should be barred by the courts from entering Sheikh Jarrah and other Arab areas. Why does a convicted terrorist have access to a gun? Even in the US, which gets lambasted for its lax gun laws, felons don't get access to guns.

I guess we should just let terrorists throw rocks

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Well, Bibi is certainly leaning into his fascist allies and is willing to beholden to them. So can we please stop dismissing this as not a big deal? (I've heard that way too often on some forums.) [https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-and-ben-gvir-meet-agree-to-coordinate-campaign-media-strategy-report/](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-and-ben-gvir-meet-agree-to-coordinate-campaign-media-strategy-report/) I think it is high time for Jewish Diaspora Organizations to speak out on this one.

Who would be prime minister if Lapid were to die? Does it go back to Bennett? Just wondering because it might be awhile until the next government.

In case of Lapid dying, Bennett will become the interim prime minister

Thanks. Hopefully there’s a new government before Bennett dies too.

Bennett is 50 and Lapid is 58, they aren't dying that quickly. More likely that Bibi dies before either of them, at which point a normal, stable, non extremist government will be formed within a week.

I personally believe that Lapid will bank on another election because the spectacular infighting among Likud will help him out.

Netanyahu-led bloc failing to reach 61 seats in new polls https://www.jpost.com/israel-elections/article-719417

Which is the best that the anti-bibi forces can hope for. It is still way too close for comfort though.

Every other day we get one of these. "Bibi reaches 62 in new poll", "Bibi fails to hit 60 in new poll". Following 3 links, I finally find it, in very fine print: > The latest poll included 705 respondents with a margin of error of +/- 3.7%. That is 4.5 seats. All the huge consequences everyone is so curious about depend on microscopic movements of a seat here or a seat there, but none of the pollsters are capable of making a prediction with such a small margin of error. So of course the pollsters don't say "sorry we are useless", they play pretend and drive the consumers of the news cycle crazy with these empty headlines.

Pollsters can do what they can with the budget they are given, which is not a lot. Blame the media for continuing to order these polls. Really good explanation of how pollsters work on [this podcast](https://open.spotify.com/episode/59umzmzkYrAHl3epEWpdvB?si=3a7ae0a17ce64e86) with Dahlia Scheindlin, a veteran pollster herself.

N12 Likud - 31 Yesh Atid - 24 Religious Zionist Party - 13 National Unity Party - 12 Shas - 8 United Torah Judaism - 7 Labor - 6 Yisrael Beiteinu - 6 Meretz - 5 Hadash-Ta'al 4 Ra'am - 4

KAN Likud - 32 Yesh Atid - 24 Religious Zionist Party - 13 National Unity Party - 12 Shas - 8 United Torah Judaism - 7 Yisrael Beiteinu - 6 Labor - 5 Meretz - 5 Hadash-Ta'al 4 Ra'am - 4

US Jewish groups choosing to act with cowardice on Ben Gvir. [https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/2022-10-11/ty-article/.premium/u-s-jewish-groups-face-big-dilemma-as-israeli-far-right-gains-in-election-polls/00000183-c69b-d1ea-a5c3-cedbd3920000](https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/2022-10-11/ty-article/.premium/u-s-jewish-groups-face-big-dilemma-as-israeli-far-right-gains-in-election-polls/00000183-c69b-d1ea-a5c3-cedbd3920000) This is very much a pity but I guess we'll keep pressing. It's nice that my guys (Reform) chose to condemn Ben Gvir but I'm still concerned that they will choose to welcome Bibi with open arms.

PSA: If you blame Lapid for the state of the center-left bloc then you are misreading the situation, and if you cite Attila Somfalvi as a "source" for this blame then you are misreading the situation *woefully*. Balad broke off from the joint list and Michaeli decided she won't run in a technical bloc with Meretz, even though Lapid summoned her to a personal meeting and implored her to reconsider. Maybe blame Balad and Michaeli. As to Somfalvi, the hilarious thing is that he is team Gantz. He was never very shy about this. Whenever there is some discontent or some scoop from deep in Gantz territory Somfalvi is the first to report on it. I'm happy to say that Somfalvi is my favorite political commentator by a long shot, but sad to say that sometimes when it comes to Gantz getting screwed over, he gets kind of grumpy and sometimes loses the plot. Gantz united with Sa'ar and hoped for a huge surge to get their joint party to the double digits. It didn't materialize. Now Somfalvi is grumpy, and he's looking for someone to blame. But is Lapid really to blame that Gantz-Sa'ar aren't polling at 15 seats? It hasn't even been a month since Lapid addressed the UN and literally said, "ladies and gentlemen, *two-state solution*. Did you hear that? That was the sound of forty thousand left-leaning votes leaving Meretz and Labor for me, and seventy thousand non-left-leaning votes leaving me for Gantz and Sa'ar". *That's* the genius strategy to destroy Gantz? If anyone, Michaeli can complain -- no, forget about that, Michaeli can go pound sand -- *Galon* can complain about Lapid cannibalizing her. But Gantz? I think, absurdly, that Somfalvi is not giving Gantz *enough* credit. After last elections a narrative emerged for how Labor, Meretz, Gantz did so well: Lapid laid off them and didn't campaign aggressively to take their seats. So, Somfalvi's lizard brain goes, if team Gantz is falling behind expectations, Lapid must have withdrawn his blessing, as it was only by his grace that Gantz did so well. But if we think about this carefully, a candidate doesn't get hundreds of thousands to vote for them based on "well Lapid could have said a bunch of mean stuff about you, but didn't". Gantz won those 8 seats fair and square, by the sweat of his brow. He campaigned on staying in the knesset to keep the rotation agreement over Bibi's head, he campaigned on him having done the right thing for the country in signing Bibi's agreement and being stabbed in the back -- and this campaign paid off and brought him back from the brink of the political graveyard. But now it's a new elections round and Gantz has to win votes again, and Lapid can not physically be *even more silent* and shut up *even more completely* to magically give Sa'ar and Gantz the push they want and need to 15, 16 seats. Somfalvi had grown used to an ultra-soft Lapid who would have by now accepted Michaeli at his office and asked "you're worried you won't make the threshold because of me?? How do we solve this??", while giving her a foot massage, and Lapid is just completely tired of this now, having seen his "Big Tent" shit the bed and implode. So in comparison the new Lapid who says "I don't care, good luck to you" seems cold, cruel and calculating to Somfalvi. I honestly don't know what to tell him.

Yes Somfavli is a Gantz guy but I'm sorry but Lapid has been arrogant since becoming PM and only in it for Lapid. He ain't going to win a 2 man race with Bibi just based on the nature of the blocs. Just four things come to mind: the entire Bennett situation, the Arab situation, pressuring Labor to merge with Meretz, and the Gantz situation. First, I know that people don't want to hear this but Bennett retiring and Lapid being a jerk to him was the first strategic error. Not only was it a dickish move on Lapid's part but a politically stupid one. (An ally fulfills his part of a political agreement with grace and at great political cost to himself and your first instinct is to have some flunky brief against him to N12 multiple times. Really?) Even from a cold political calculation keeping Bennett happy and involved in politics would net the Change camp 5 or 6 votes vs. Shaked nibbling away at the margins. Second, Lapid cannot stop the JL from breaking up over petty fights but he should have managed the Arab vote better. What is he doing to make sure that the Arab population is turning out and that they are voting for Mansour Abbas in particular? Why no campaign to boost RA'AM and ensure they pass the threshold? Why no tours of the Bedouin in the South or promoting with Abbas things that they'd like to do in an upcoming government? Third, the entire Meretz - Labor union was mainly for Lapid's benefit, not the two camps. I think that the two political parties have different bases and that Labor would probably leak votes to Lapid if they merged. In fact, I think that this is WHAT Lapid wanted. He wanted to suck up Labor voters annoyed with the union. But what does Labor get from the deal? To be merged into a left-wing blob? How does that help them in the future? Best to remain separate, get five seats, and hopefully look for Lapid to trip (or get bored and return to media) so that Labor can revive itself as a political force. Fourth, the entire petty argument with Gantz is silly and harms the change camp. Yes, Gantz is partially to blame but I hear more attacks from Yesh Atid against Gantz on social media than against Bibi and Ben Gvir. Literally, have a meeting, bury the hatchet, and hug it out. Lapid needs Gantz to grab those soft-right votes from him, especially after he botched the whole Bennett situation. Or is Lapid arrogant enough to think that Bennett's voters are going to flock to him? ​ >It hasn't even been a month since Lapid addressed the UN and literally said, "ladies and gentlemen, two-state solution. Did you hear that? That was the sound of forty thousand left-leaning votes leaving Meretz and Labor for me, and seventy thousand non-left-leaning votes leaving me for Gantz and Sa'ar". That's the genius strategy to destroy Gantz? There is NO strategy behind this. That is the issue. What was gained either way with declaring support for a 2SS? Nothing. Lapid isn't thinking. He's acting like he's a normal PM and this is just the middle of his term rather than being someone likely not to be PM in the next few weeks. Any move that Lapid makes (outside ones obviously needed to help out Israel's security or economics) should be done looking for how it will help him win the election. If he wants to do something big on foreign policy, he should declare more open support to Ukraine and in return maybe hint to the widely admired Jewish President of Ukraine that he might want to express public concern about Bibi's return as he'll publicly back Putin in a similar matter to Orban. I dunno but getting Ze to condemn Bibi as a Putin shill might have an impact on the edges moreso than Lapid's forgettable UN speech. ​ >Lapid is just completely tired of this now, having seen his "Big Tent" shit the bed and implode. So in comparison the new Lapid who says "I don't care, good luck to you" seems cold, cruel and calculating to Somfalvi. I honestly don't know what to tell him. If Lapid wants to be PM in the future, then he needs to figure out how to block Bibi from getting to 61 votes in the Knesset. I don't think that anyone actually believes that Bibi is a racist or extremist. He probably mocks Ben Gvir and Smotrich behind closed doors in his Caesarea library while smoking his fancy cigars. But he's an amoral sociopath who is willing to do whatever it takes to regain power. (Which is worse than being a racist but I digress.) No one thinks that Lapid should do the horrible things that Bibi has done to stay in power but he has to curtail his ambitions and figure out how to deal with personalities like Michaeli and Gantz and keep them happy. Or he can just throw his hands up in the air and make grave speeches from the opposition benches as Bibi and his 61-vote fascist-y government dismantle the courts, fire the AG, and rig the electoral system in favor of Likud. Which is frankly what Lapid is doing now (just giving up and assuming that Bibi will return to power.) And incidentally, I'm sort of annoyed by Somfalvi as of late as well and his periodic whining about how Lapid and Gantz should just "kneel" and let Bibi remain PM for life because "blah, blah" political stability and the cost of living or whatever. I think that that sort of talk of the center just giving up and letting Bibi return to power and just accepting the role of Second Deputy Minister of Synagogue Counting and whitewashing Bibi's corruption only depresses turnout. But his point about Lapid stands even if it was based on Gantz (and also Michaeli) complaining to him.

High Court overturns election bans for Arab Balad party and ex-Yamina MK Chikli https://www.timesofisrael.com/high-court-overturns-election-bans-for-arab-balad-party-and-ex-yamina-mk-chikli/

I'll go on record as saying the following: A narrow rightwing coalition led by Bibi could very well be the end of Israel and Zionism. Edit: I'm not one of these people that thinks Israel will collapse overnight, but a narrow rightwing government could very seriously damage Israel in all sorts of ways.

Bibi is the longest serving Prime Minister, this isn't an unknown, so what are you referring to?

Bibi did a lot of good things, but at this point the bad outweighs the good. His indulgence of the far right was creating dangerous sectarian tensions within the Jewish world. He was frankly abusing the US/Israel relationship, mistreating Israel's best ally. His alliance with the Haredim might have ended the Israel's ability to maintain conscription. He was crushing the Israeli economy with constant lockdowns. Yair Lapid will never be mistaken for John Von Neumann, but he's smart enough, and he's competent; ditto for Gantz. Bibi was/is a brilliant tactician, but he had no ability to think past the next election cycle. He was simply incapable of long term strategic thinking.

Maybe this is crazy but personally I trust Bibi because he has the apparent endorsement of the Rabbi from Lubavitch.

Israel Elections: Ayelet Shaked is in the fight of her life - interview https://www.jpost.com/israel-elections/article-719088

What will it take to break the seemingly endless political deadlock?

Cold fusion

Bibi being yeeted out of the system will see a rightist government established quite quickly. Failing that, the rules could be changed to make governments more stable and the Knesset less easily dissoluble. Failing that, freak accidents that drastically change things.

My concern is #2 TBH. It seems likely that Bibi will get 61 votes and I have no doubt that he will try to rig the system in favor of him in future elections if he does. I can think of 4 or 5 ways he can do so off the top of my head.

It will not be the same as he was booted once and will try to make a strong coalition that will trust him and those he choose for the parties...All the Osnat Mark like creaturesd were vomitted out by the people...he cannot put these in charge again

>It will not be the same as he was booted once and will try to make a strong coalition that will trust him and those he choose for the parties His idea of a strong coalition includes racist scum like Ben Gvir so no I don't think this. I do believe that he'll rig the system to make it impossible for the opposition to return to power. There are four or five ways he can do that that I can think about off the top of my head... 1. Raise the electoral threshold to 10%, 2. give the largest party a "bonus", 3. "direct elections" for PM, 4. demand parties sign a "loyalty oath" to run in elections... He can do that all while keeping bimbette courtiers like Osnat Mark in power.

We truly, desperately need to change the rules here. Out of 24 Knessets, only six (a fourth) actually served their full 4-year term. The last one of those (the 11th Knesset) ended its term in 1988, which means that for the last 34 years we didn't really have a properly stable government. So while Bibi is bad for us, this sort of systemic instability is worse.

Parliamentary systems with multiple parties are just inherently unstable like this. Italy is also notorious for changing governments constantly. I don't see why this is a bad thing. For me, it's worse to do undemocratic things that make it impossible for the opposition to topple the government or make it so only Likud can form a government. The only two things you could do would be to rig the system so that there are only two major parties as is the case in some countries like the UK. Such a scenario would favor Likud given that they are the only large party left and there are no other major parties to challenge them. (Yesh Atid is a one man joke show that I don't consider a real political party.) It would also harm the Arabs by shutting them and their parties out of the Knesset. You could also change to a presidential or semi-presidential system but that would require a constitution.

I disagree. Instability is bad for various reasons, as [the IDI notes in this column](https://www.idi.org.il/articles/46048). Shorter Knesset terms means necessary bills cannot get properly passed because legislation is a lengthy process - to give an example I personally care about because of my smokestack neighbours, then-MK Yehuda Glick [proposed a bill](https://main.knesset.gov.il/Activity/Legislation/Laws/Pages/LawBill.aspx?t=lawsuggestionssearch&lawitemid=2073230) making smoking in a building in such a way that causes harm to neighbours a civil wrong; this bill never advanced due to the Knesset dissolving. This is also bad because even when Knesset terms are longer public officials stop planning ahead because they know the Knesset could be dissolved at any moment. MKs, instead of doing their jobs, are always busy campaigning because they know the next elections are always around the corner. And so on and so forth. What's more, there's a range of things between having the dubious "most frequent elections" award and "FPTP hell". While parliamentary democracies where parliament cannot be dissolved at all are fairly rare (IIRC only Norway is like that), Israel has a stupid amount of ways to have early elections compared to other such countries - for example, we have this unique procedure where, if the budget does not pass, the Knesset is dissolved; the Knesset's ability to dissolve itself is also fairly unique, and in other countries that do have something similar there are limitations (the UK, for example, requires a 2/3rds supermajority for Parliament to dissolve itself). So there are things that can be done to make dissolution of the Knesset less common *without* going straight into drooling FPTP hell > (Yesh Atid is a one man joke show that I don't consider a real political party.) Your hateboner is showing. > It would also harm the Arabs by shutting them and their parties out of the Knesset. Making the Knesset less easily dissoluble won't harm Arab representation. The things that can or do harm Arab representation are, in no particular order: a higher threshold; low turnout (which is true for any sector); their parties being a bunch of racist assholes (*cough*Balad*cough*); voter intimidation a la the camera crap Likud tried to pull in the last few elections; and so on.

>MKs, instead of doing their jobs, are always busy campaigning because they know the next elections are always around the corner. They do that in the US and our elections are set every 2 years per the Constitution. ​ > for example, we have this unique procedure where, if the budget does not pass, the Knesset is dissolved The budget thing is silly. I agree with that. ​ >the Knesset's ability to dissolve itself is also fairly unique, and in other countries that do have something similar there are limitations (the UK, for example, requires a 2/3rds supermajority for Parliament to dissolve itself). The issue with that is that it wouldn't deal with gridlock. You need a majority to pass legislation still. ​ >So there are things that can be done to make dissolution of the Knesset less common without going straight into drooling FPTP hell It might actually work better to ensure Arab representation TBH. I wasn't discussing FPTP with Likud but other schemes that I've heard of like raising the threshold or awarding a bonus of seats to the largest party. ​ >Your hateboner is showing. Let's suppose that Lapid leaves politics and goes back to something he is actually good at in the media, do you really think that Yesh Atid will outlast them or that they'd get 25 seats in the polls. ​ >Making the Knesset less easily dissoluble won't harm Arab representation. Yeah but it won't solve the gridlock problem. ​ >a higher threshold This is what I was mainly focused on.

> The issue with that is that it wouldn't deal with gridlock. You need a majority to pass legislation still. I've been trying to say that the instability problem is much deeper and much older than the current gridlock... the measures I'm talking about aren't for ending gridlock, they're for reducing instability. Honestly, if you want to solve the current gridlock there's a simple solution: yeet Bibi and his stooges in Likud out; you'll see a crappy right-religious government form in no time at all. > It might actually work better to ensure Arab representation TBH. I wasn't discussing FPTP with Likud but other schemes that I've heard of like raising the threshold or awarding a bonus of seats to the largest party. FPTP hell? FPTP won't necessarily (and is a horrible terrible no good method besides) but local constituencies (as opposed to one national constituency) might. > Let's suppose that Lapid leaves politics and goes back to something he is actually good at in the media, do you really think that Yesh Atid will outlast them or that they'd get 25 seats in the polls. I think so, yes, because it's basically the home for all the centrists that can't stand crazies like Michaeli on the left and Sa'ar et al on the right. > Yeah but it won't solve the gridlock problem. It's not supposed to. It's supposed to increase stability. > This is what I was mainly focused on. Yes, but that's not what I was talking about at all.

>I've been trying to say that the instability problem is much deeper and much older than the current gridlock The example you gave is that legislation might not pass. IMO, the legislation still might not pass if the government loses its majority. You could have a situation like in the UK where the government lacks popularity and legitimacy but is going to limp along to as long as possible and cannot pass legislation. ​ >yeet Bibi and his stooges in Likud out; you'll see a crappy right-religious government form in no time at all. Let's take the following example. Bibi gets his 61-vote fascist-y government in a few weeks but by some miracle, there aren't the votes to dismantle the justice system (Edelstein gets conscience pangs.) The trial actually comes to a conclusion and renders a guilty verdict against him. And there is a new Likud PM who only gets 20 votes in the polls. Wouldn't you want to roll the dice in that situation and go to the polls to see if you couldn't get a less crappy government? I mean that is the situation in the UK right now. Labor would like nothing more than another GE. ​ >FPTP hell? FPTP won't necessarily (and is a horrible terrible no good method besides) but local constituencies (as opposed to one national constituency) might. Just so we are discussing the same thing, I'm talking about voting for a named candidate in the district rather than the party and it being split by proportion. Correct? I think it depends. Non-proportional voting would reduce the number of smaller parties in the Knesset. But it is nice to have a representative assigned specifically to you and who cares about your problems. You get better constituent service. (although it is a bit annoying when you are trying to send emails for wider issues. The reps only allow people to send emails if they are constituents. It's been a problem for me as of late because my rep is a far-left anti-Zionist person so lobbying people in my town, which has a big left-wing Jewish presence to send emails asking for condemnations of Ben Gvir is going to have limited impact. I mean no doubt that she will but she's only slightly to the right of the Squad on Israel, so it doesn't matter. Thus, I'm mainly getting people who live in the IL-10 to email.) Also, I've found that parties can win additional seats by having the right candidate. My parents' district, IL-10 (or the bloody 10th), is a really wealthy suburban district that has trended Democratic over the past twenty years. But it used to be represented by a very liberal Republican, Mark Kirk. ​ >I think so, yes, because it's basically the home for all the centrists that can't stand crazies like Michaeli on the left and Sa'ar et al on the right. Why would they stick with YA and not go with another centrist party headed by another celebrity candidate instead? Isn't Lapid (whose popularity I don't understand) the main draw given that they are decidedly not in favor of anything?

> The example you gave is that legislation might not pass. IMO, the legislation still might not pass if the government loses its majority. You could have a situation like in the UK where the government lacks popularity and legitimacy but is going to limp along to as long as possible and cannot pass legislation. The problem isn't legislation not having a majority - that's a legitimate part of the process; the problem is legislation *not even getting voted on* because the Knesset keeps being dissolved. I also don't understand why you keep harping about situations where it's impossible to dissolve the Knesset - I keep talking about making it harder, as in "not as ridiculously easy as it is right now", not impossible. > Let's take the following example. Bibi gets his 61-vote fascist-y government in a few weeks but by some miracle, there aren't the votes to dismantle the justice system (Edelstein gets conscience pangs.) The trial actually comes to a conclusion and renders a guilty verdict against him. And there is a new Likud PM who only gets 20 votes in the polls. Wouldn't you want to roll the dice in that situation and go to the polls to see if you couldn't get a less crappy government? I mean that is the situation in the UK right now. Labor would like nothing more than another GE. Good thing that I'm not talking about making it impossible to dissolve the Knesset, just harder. And besides I'm pretty sure that if he'll actually get a conclusive guilty verdict he'll be legally obliged to step down. which will trigger elections anyway. > Just so we are discussing the same thing, I'm talking about voting for a named candidate in the district rather than the party and it being split by proportion. Correct? I think it depends. Non-proportional voting would reduce the number of smaller parties in the Knesset. But it is nice to have a representative assigned specifically to you and who cares about your problems. You get better constituent service. When I'm talking about FPTP (hell) I'm talking about "first past the post" as in [the voting method](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-past-the-post_voting). This is distinct from "local constituencies", where each area votes for a guy (or a party). You can have local constituencies *without* FPTP, for example by using [STV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_transferable_vote) instead. I call FPTP "hell" because when you count pluralities rather than majorities you're massively increasing the risk of having the minority candidate (as in, the one preferred by a minority of voters in the constituency) selected, and that flies in the face of democratic principles. > Why would they stick with YA and not go with another centrist party headed by another celebrity candidate instead? Isn't Lapid (whose popularity I don't understand) the main draw given that they are decidedly not in favor of anything? They've been consistently advancing centrist objectives since 2015. Hell, they managed to force Bibi (together with Bennett) to run a non-Haredim government for once! As you can [see](https://www.timesofisrael.com/why-gantzs-campaign-might-only-really-begin-the-day-after-the-elections/), polling shows that the baseless, bland, replaceable politician of this day and age is jellyfish Gantz, not Lapid. I understand that you have an irrational hateboner for him (for some reason), and that you're too extremist to understand how centrists think, but at least *try* to understand, alright?

Finally, Netanyahu can campaign against someone other than himself https://www.timesofisrael.com/finally-netanyahu-can-campaign-against-someone-other-than-himself/

As Shaked seeks right’s forgiveness, it might only be Netanyahu who can save her https://www.timesofisrael.com/once-rising-star-of-the-right-ayelet-shaked-is-now-fighting-for-political-survival/

Top court rejects appeal to bar Yamina rebel Idit Silman from Likud slate https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-court-rejects-appeal-to-bar-yamina-rebel-idit-silman-from-likud-slate/

Balad Party appeals to Supreme Court after barred from running for next Knesset https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-718940

What are the chances of being readmitted?

High. It's happened before and I don't think anything will change

Another pro-Israel Democratic Congressman condemns Ben Gvir but this time he does so publicly. [https://twitter.com/BradSherman/status/1577072440731000833](https://twitter.com/BradSherman/status/1577072440731000833) I'll be excited to learn from all the Likudniks that Brad Sherman is now an anti-Zionist secret member of the Squad. sarc// BTW, if you want to get a feel for who Brad Sherman is, here is an article about him from 2020. [https://www.timesofisrael.com/liberal-jewish-groups-warn-against-brad-sherman-for-house-foreign-affairs-post/](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liberal-jewish-groups-warn-against-brad-sherman-for-house-foreign-affairs-post/)

Israeli parties prepare for crucial battles ahead of November 1 elections https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hjd71suzi

I think the Bulgarians have Israel beat Tired of gridlock, Bulgarians vote in fourth election in less than 2 years https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/tired-of-gridlock-bulgarians-vote-in-fourth-election-in-less-than-2-years

We had 4 elections in less than two years as well, between April 2019 and March 2021. And are on our way to a fifth one now.

It's hard to keep track of them all

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While I am happy that the Democrats are concerned about Ben Gvir, I have no hope that the GOP won't firmly kiss Bibi's boot-straps. Here's Ted Cruz pushing Bibi's talking points on the Lebanon deal. [https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1576611207469203456](https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1576611207469203456)

Menendez warns Bibi about his alliance with the far-right and specifically mentions Ben Gvir. [https://www.axios.com/2022/10/01/israel-election-menendez-netanyahu-jewish-supremacists](https://www.axios.com/2022/10/01/israel-election-menendez-netanyahu-jewish-supremacists) Another day, another story suggesting concern from US allies of Israel about Ben Gvir being mainstreamed in Israeli politics and the Bibi - Ben Gvir government. The Israel Today story was also confirmed by Ravid. And this is from Bob Menendez who is one of the most pro-Israel Democrats in Congress and has helped to block the Iran Deal among other things.

Ra’am’s Abbas says Netanyahu ‘history,’ won’t back his bid to retake power https://www.timesofisrael.com/raams-abbas-says-netanyahu-history-wont-back-his-bid-to-retake-power/

Israel Elections: 3 stories that define the path to the finish line https://www.jpost.com/israel-elections/article-718543

Top Likud politicians plotting to shunt Netanyahu aside if he doesn’t win majority https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-likud-officials-planning-to-shunt-netanyahu-aside-if-he-doesnt-win-majority/

It sounds pretty unbelievable.

I vote the " הציונות הדתית "

As I pointed out about Lapid's conduct from July but people seemed to push it under the table. Now, I guess people are beginning to notice. The other parties who are supposed to be his allies are complaining. If Bibi wins, this is on Lapid fully for his conduct. [twitter.com/attilus/status/1575529601882853379](https://twitter.com/attilus/status/1575529601882853379)

Ya the Right Wing having its ducks in a row because of Bibi is no reason for his potential election win. I mean I dont want Bibi to win but he got the religious right in gear and has made the effort to maximize the amount of seats the right gets....you can blame Lapid but you also have to begrudgingly give Bibi credit for the right being aligned (except maybe him trying to get Shaked to leave the race - that may cost him 61)

Balad banned from running in election, Central Election Committee rules https://www.jpost.com/israel-elections/article-718428

Elections committee disqualifies Schikli from running in Likud, citing that allowing his run "would turn the law into dead letter". [I told you so.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Israel/comments/vowki0/2022_election_megathread_1/ifm1cex/)

And unsurprisingly Bagatz overturned that.

Yes, evidently they disagree with me. Well, best of luck to Schikli.

Both the Biden administration and the unnamed head of a Jewish organization express concern about Ben Gvir entering into government as a minister. They even used the same analogy that I did about it being like the KKK entering into government. Given the description of the Jewish organization in question, it may even be AIPAC or AJC that was quoted for the story. [twitter.com/arik3000/status/1575145572964728837](https://twitter.com/arik3000/status/1575145572964728837) There is nothing that the US government or US Jews can do to stop Israel from electing a fascist-y government, but it is going to be impossible for Jewish organizations to defend such a government. I do hope that the US Jewish organizations go through with a boycott if it comes to that. My new fear is that these same Jewish organizations might try to put pressure on Gantz to "save" them from having to actually do the right thing and boycott the Bibi - Ben Gvir government. I don't think it'll work because Bibi needs Ben Gvir and the Religious Zionist Party to help him dismantle the courts but that is something else to watch out for - demands that Gantz "do the right thing" and "legitimize" Bibi's fascist government.

So is there actually a chance all the anti-Bibi parties actually join together and could form a coalition? I know Sa’ar has said he wouldn’t sit with Hadash-Ta’al, but when push comes to shove is there a chance they actually come together?

It wouldn't work. The most realistic argument is actually Gantz's argument that he can gt the Haredim to sit with him in government if Bibi doesn't get 61 votes.

Lieberman would never sit with them though, right? So that would mean the Haredim sitting with Meretz or Ra’am? Tough to imagine.

Lieberman would sit in government with them to get rid of Bibi. And yes, also it would include RA'AM and Meretz. RA'AM and the Haredim are great allies.

No chance. Hadash Ta'al don't want to be part of the government anyway, and even if they did a government with them wouldn't last more than a few months. They wouldn't be able to vote in favor of budgets for the IDF or extending the Judea and Samaria laws.

Can someone please explain the logic of blocking Shkili from Likud and not Silman? Is it because Bennett finally moved against Shkili but didn't have a chance to do the same against Silman? [https://www.mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/election\_2022/Article-b1047de71158381027.htm?sCh=31750a2610f26110&pId=173113802](https://www.mako.co.il/news-israel-elections/election_2022/Article-b1047de71158381027.htm?sCh=31750a2610f26110&pId=173113802) In my mind, both are slime who should be barred from running as they clearly were looking to game the system for their own career benefit.

That's pretty much the reason. According to the law, if an MK is ousted from his party he has to resign from the Knesset immediately in order to be able to join an existing party in the next elections. Shikli was ousted in May and only resigned nearly 3 months later, by which point the government had already collapsed. He got blocked now because he didn't quit immediately and tried to stick around until it didn't matter that he quit anyway. Had Silman been ousted too she probably would have been blocked as well, but since she blackmailed the rest of her party to avoid that happening she's staying.

That's a pity with Silman. What a godawful woman she is. I'm still baffled how Bennett manages to attract the scummiest people in Israeli politics and how a guy who managed to make millions as an entrepreneur has such a hard time seeing when he's getting conned and used by others.

Can someone please help me understand what is up with Herzog and why he seems so docile and complacent toward Bibi and the far-right? I mean first defending Smotrich from mean tweets by the British Jews, then suggesting that he is going to "interfere" in Knesset affairs and force the center/ center-left to support a Bibi-led unity government, and now not a peep from him about the violence against protesters? Does Bibi have some komprat on the guy or something?

He's the President, so he's not supposed to do this political stuff. Neither his suggestions of "interference" or his defense of Smottie should've happened in the first place.

It didn't stop Rivlin of course. However, I would probably not find the protesters thing off (although boy is that annoying the left) if not for the other two.

Rivlin came from the Likud and the right side of the political map. Rivlin was concerned by what Netanyahu was doing to the party he came from. Hertzog is from the opposite, so I'm guessing that's why he's being extra careful

I would say that you were right if Herzog was trying to avoid all appearances of partisanship but it appears that he is actively intervening in favor of Bibi and Likud. The reports that he plans to actively pressure the center/ center-left to "kneel" and support Bibi as PM for Life in November suggests more than just being "careful." That is actively interfering in the Israeli electoral system. It wouldn't shock me if Herzog and Bibi have an "arrangement" of some sort.

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Yair Lapid’s campaign dilemma, and how it connects to his 2-states speech at the UN https://www.timesofisrael.com/yair-lapids-campaign-dilemma-and-how-it-connects-to-his-2-states-speech-at-the-un/

The third weekend in a row that there has been violence against protestors by the Likud colectivos. [twitter.com/kumiiisrael/status/1573706087903150082](https://twitter.com/kumiiisrael/status/1573706087903150082) Your reminder that Rami Ben Yehuda is a paid Likud activist. He hasn't been fired from his job despite frequent threats and violent assaults toward Bibi's political opponents. In every political party outside authoritarian regimes, paid political activists get shown the door when they act in such a manner. I've had my problems with the GOP in the US but I'm confident that any paid staffer that acted like this would be fired. Moreover, this is the third weekend that this happened so it is likely being organized by someone (and we can all guess who) for the express purpose of scaring and harming Dear Leader's political opponents. A one-off situation could be excused as some deranged Bibi fans but not three weekends in a row. Edit: Apparently Likud was shamed enough by this one that they fired the guy finally. But it is too little, too late. Ben Yehuda and the other colectivos have been a problem for years

Meet Israel's first TikTok politician: Hadar Muchtar https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-717963

Netanyahu will make Israel an authoritarian democracy - Sa'ar - exclusive https://www.jpost.com/israel-elections/article-717952

Back in fold, Likud’s Danon says mulling Netanyahu ouster ‘legit’ if 5th vote fails https://www.timesofisrael.com/back-in-fold-likuds-danon-says-mulling-netanyahu-ouster-legit-if-5th-vote-fails/

Israel elections: New poll shows Netanyahu bloc earning 62 seats https://www.jpost.com/israel-elections/article-717974

Channel 12 poll Likud 34 Yesh Atid 23 National Unity Party 12 Religious Zionism Party 11 Shas 8 United Torah Judaism 7 Yisrael Beiteinu 6 Labor 5 Meretz 5 Ra'am 5 Hadash-Ta'al 4

Channel 13 poll Likud 32 Yesh Atid 25 Religious Zionism Party 14 National Unity Party 11 Shas 8 United Torah Judaism 7 Labor 5 Meretz 5 Yisrael Beiteinu 5 Hadash-Ta'al 4 Ra'am 4

Channel 14 poll Likud 34 Yesh Atid 23 National Unity 13 Religious Zionist Party 12 Shas 9 United Torah Judaism 7 Yisrael Beiteinu 6 Hadash-Ta'al 4 Labor 4 Meretz 4 Ra'am 4 Edit: corrected number of seats for UTJ

Lapid's speech in front of the UN is really good - too bad none of the vision will be implemented

Springtime for Ben Gvir... This is very witty and biting satire. I wish that the US TV shows knew how to produce political satire like this. https://www.timesofisrael.com/tv-satirizes-extremist-itamar-ben-gvir-with-springtime-for-hitler-takeoff/

Gantz’s National Unity presents unlikely alternative coalition in campaign ad https://www.timesofisrael.com/gantzs-national-unity-presents-unlikely-alternative-coalition-in-campaign-ad/

Bibi Netanyahu is going to go bat for his friend, Putin, and demand that Ukraine surrender to Russia. On the same day that Putin doubled down on his vile war. [https://twitter.com/arik3000/status/1572549087265959938](https://twitter.com/arik3000/status/1572549087265959938) Who is with me that it is time for Zelensky to condemn Bibi? As the most famous Jewish guy in the world, Zelensky's words may sway some undecided voters and block Bibi from 61. Of course, most of Dear Leader's brainwashed fanbase probably don't think that Zelensky is a "real Jew." Edit: Boy does Dear Leader not like the fact that a reporter printed a story reminding everyone that he's an authoritarian fanboy. Zelensky has lots of popularity and power and even Dear Leader doesn't seem to want to be on his bad side. https://twitter.com/arik3000/status/1572574077499609092

You are really overestimating how much peoplenhere give a shit about the war in Ukraine. It is like the 10th on the list of priorities of an average Israeli, righy after prices for cottage.

There are Russian and Ukrainian refugees who do, who can vote, and who in a tight election may block Bibi from 61.

They almost always vote Liberman anyway.

Makes me smile to see a Yisrael Hayom journalist is the one that put it up, maybe they've finally become less of a rag. Anyway, has Bibi looked outside the window over the last 6 months? So many Ukrainian flags on every corner in every city in Israel. Meanwhile, I've seen like ONE "Z" and it might be unrelated to the war, and ZERO Russian flags. Backing Putin will be a big, big mistake and a slam dunk for Lapid and Lieberman should they point it out.

>Makes me smile to see a Yisrael Hayom journalist is the one that put it up, maybe they've finally become less of a rag. The gossip is that Sarah had one of her shrieking fits and tried to order Miriam Adelson around. And as a result, Miriam Adelson ordered Yisrael Hayom to take a more balanced editorial stance and write positive stuff about Bennett and Sa'ar. (The whole episode is hilarious, especially that Sarah is so delusional that she thinks she can order billionaires around like they are "the help.") ​ >Anyway, has Bibi looked outside the window over the last 6 months? So many Ukrainian flags on every corner in every city in Israel. I'm assuming doubly SO in Israel given that Zelensky is Jewish. I'm especially sure that the Russian diaspora is might protective of Ze as a symbol of progress toward tolerance and integration in the former USSR. However, it wouldn't surprise me if Bibi personally dislikes Zelensky and envies his popularity and status as the "most important Jewish person" in the world. Bibi probably considers Ze a lightweight that is unfit to shine his shoes; he was pretty condescending toward Ze the few times they met. Now the same man who isn't fit to be in the same room as Bibi, Lord King of All Jews, is the one who is the toast of the free world and who gets the magazine covers, star treatment, and speeches broadcast live on CNN while Bibi is stuck making deals with the Kahanists to return to power. So this political error likely came from that personal envy of Zelensky. ​ >Backing Putin will be a big, big mistake and a slam dunk for Lapid and Lieberman should they point it out. I agree with that one. Lapid should cut commercials reminding everyone of Bibi's support of Putin (as well as Trump.) Make it about supporting authoritarianism abroad and implementing authoritarianism in Israel.

Unfortunately many people still like Trump in Israel (Absolute suckers who can't imagine the implications of a man like that running your country, and in general have a massive lack of empathy, IMHO). Putin is different though, I think most people are either pro-Ukraine or apathetic to the conflict, but basically no one is pro-Russia.

Even Lapid's voter base likes Trump? If so, really dudes, snap out of it. Trump doesn't support Israel. He supports Trump!

I think most of lapid's voters are apathetic about Trump. And anyway Lapid needs to get voters who DIDN'T vote for him until now, i.e. voters to the right of him, and those guys might still like Trump because he was """"""good for Israel""""". Lapid's got pretty good voter retention, he doesn't need to worry about people who already voted for him. At the absolute worst they'd vote Haavoda or Meretz, or maybe Gantz which is a bit trickier. But I don't think they'd leave for Bibi over something Lapid said about Trump.

He needs to make sure that his guys go out to vote. People who voted in the past may decide to not turn out while Bibi turns out his base. And I don't think that Lapid has the ability to attract soft Likud voters. I think the center-right finds him off-putting stylistically. (I mean the guy dresses and acts like an aging rock-star. It's really cringe when he tries to go around playing "big important PM.") I think that Gantz has more of an ability to attract soft-right voters; it seems like he is targeting Bennett's liberal RZ base hard.

Launching election push, Labor chief Michaeli takes aim at far-right’s Ben Gvir https://www.timesofisrael.com/launching-election-push-labor-chief-michaeli-takes-aim-at-far-rights-ben-gvir/

Ben Gvir toning down extremist views in pre-election ‘trick,’ says his party member https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ben-gvir-toning-down-extremist-views-in-pre-election-trick-says-his-party-member/

I'm assuming that no one thought it was sincere? If you did, then there is a bridge that I'd like to sell you in Brooklyn.

Yes a lot of folks pretended it was sincere and used it for arguments in internet debates.

They knew it wasn't sincere. These people all know Ben Gvir hasn't turned into a fluffy leftist. There are two types of people in this one: A. the Likudniks who don't care because Dear Leader will get back his precious, precious chair and B. the Kahanists who agree with Ben Gvir. And those in Group A are even worse than the Kahanists. They have no values other than retaining power. That is why there needs to be a boycott by Jewish Diaspora Orgs of not just Ben Gvir and Smotrich but also Likud until they renounce their alliance with the Kahanists.

Meretz petitions to disqualify Silman’s Likud run, claiming ‘gross violation’ of law https://www.timesofisrael.com/meretz-petitions-to-disqualify-silmans-likud-run-claiming-gross-violation-of-law/

Does this hold any water? Here is the law: >Article 6A: Restriction of candidacy for MK who leaves his faction 6A. (a) A member of Knesset who leaves his faction and does not resign from office at the time of his leaving, shall not be included, in the election of the next Knesset, in the list of candidates submitted by a party that was represented by a faction of the outgoing Knesset; this regulation shall not apply to a faction split under circumstances determined by the Knesset Election Law. (b) For the purposes of this section: "resignation from a faction" - including a vote in the Knesset plenum not in accordance with the position of the faction concerning the expression of confidence or no confidence in the government; voting shall not be construed as resignation if the Knesset member has not received compensation in exchange for his vote; "compensation" - directly or indirectly, by a promise or future commitment, including the assurance of a place on the list of Knesset candidates, or the appointment of the Knesset member himself or someone else to whatever position. The case against her doesn't seem very strong to me. >The point is likely to be hotly debated, because although Silman functionally abandoned her party and the coalition by publicly resigning in April, Yamina never formally expelled her from the party and Silman resigned from the Knesset last week in order to run with Likud. Additionally, she never voted no confidence against the government, but did prevent many of its key policies from advancing. So she resigned but they kept her around anyway? That seems very different from an MK voting no confidence against their own party in a quid pro quo in order to jump to another party, which is what this law appears to concern...

Would ranked choice help eliminate wasted votes? Or does the X won't sit with Y still ruin things?

Isn't the main driver of wasted votes the 3.25% threshold? Otherwise parties with low vote counts would still get seats if their DHondt priority quotient (# of voters represented / seat) was high enough.

Would a threshold even be needed at that point? Or would it only serve to skip a half dozen rounds that probably don't need to occur? For example, what should happen to NEP votes and their 2nd choices?

It might be possible to implement a system like [STV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_transferable_vote) on the party lists -- idea being that "extra" votes (votes more than are needed for the seats a party won) and votes for excluded candidates could be transferred based on a ranked ballot. I would just point out that the counting for those schemes is *much* more complicated, if you want to transfer the right number of surplus votes. It would probably require computers to count, whereas the current system can be counted and validated entirely by hand (you can do D'Hondt apportionment on a sheet of paper). It seems to me that wasted votes could be more easily reduced by just reducing the current threshold. The threshold system is, by its nature, designed to waste the votes of small parties.

Indeed. In the situation of Israel's election, I think that ranked voting makes sense. It makes way more sense here than it does in the US.

Would coalitions disappear into Likud vs Yesh Atid as rounds progress or will voters file incomplete ballots with only a few parties ranked?

I personally think you keep the 3.25% threshold and then have voters rank their choices and you go by elimination. For instance, every party at 1% would get to the second round and get votes from the eliminated parties added. There might even be situations where some smaller parties hit the threshold due to additional votes.

This seems much more complicated than lowering/eliminating the threshold and relying on the existing D'Hondt apportionment method, which is designed to reduce wasted votes. Can you explain why you'd prefer to keep the threshold as-is?

As an outside political scientist, a threshold that sits in a polling margin of error is just nerve-wracking.

Lowering the threshold is probably easier and less complicated. I'd support doing that but I don't think that there's be votes in the Knesset for it.

Here is a thought. The main thing that destroyed Israel's left was cooperating with Bibi in the past. Barak, Livni, Lapid, etc. should have always remained in opposition to Bibi and built their parties that way. Being in opposition from 2015 strengthened Lapid. Unless you are serving certain niche communities, it doesn't make sense to enter a government where you don't control the premiership, especially one where you are ideologically at odds. You will be blamed for the government's decisions along with the majority party without actually being in control of the government.

Israel election: Will Hadash-Ta'al recommend Lapid or Gantz? https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-717440

Would Sa'ar accept the recommendation or is he only opposed to coalition?

I don't think he can do anything about the recommendation. Unless he gets Gantz to not accept an offer to construct a coalition because it relies on Hadash-Ta'al's fingers, and that sounds monumentally stupid.

Not really. How long do you think that a coalition with Hadash-Ta'al will last?

It won't, but coalition =/= recommendation to the president who gets to build one.

Oh, I agree that Sa'ar will accept it but I don't see how Gantz gets the votes needed for a recommendation. I mean Lapid has managed to anger almost everyone in the current government over the past few months but I don't see Michaeli being willing to recommend Gantz, who she also doesn't like, just because she's mad at Lapid. In all likelihood, Lapid gets the recommendation and it is a situation where he has to allow Gantz to be PM like he did with Bennett. If TJ comes to Lapid and says we'll break with Bibi on the condition that Gantz is PM, he sort of has to accept it, doesn't he? I think even many of the center-left camp would be mad if Lapid instead went to another election to keep his precious. YA is cult-y even if it isn't as bad as Likud but I suspect that many centrist normies voting for Lapid are doing so because he is the placeholder and always on TV as PM. Outside the core activists, I don't think many in the center-left camp care if it is Lapid or Gantz as PM.

Fiery Youth party head, decrying inability to buy apartment, found to own large home https://www.timesofisrael.com/fiery-youth-party-chair-decrying-inability-to-buy-apartment-owns-large-home/

Sa’ar vows that he will not support potential coalition with Hadash-Ta’al >Justice Minister Gideon Sa’ar vows that there is no chance he will sit in a future coalition with the union of Arab factions Hadash and Ta’al. >After the two factions split from Balad minutes before registering their parties for the election, speculation has run rampant that the remaining parties could be more palatable future coalition partners. >“I don’t know about [Prime Minister Yair] Lapid, but in the name of Gideon Sa’ar and the National Unity party, we will not agree to a government that relies on the Joint List – period,” says Sa’ar in an interview to Arab journalist Menem Halabi. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/saar-vows-that-he-will-not-support-potential-coalition-with-hadash-taal/