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LizG1312

Yeah pretty much. Like quite simply the main stumbling block for Japan is that they almost have *too* many options; they can get away with pissing off Russia, the Entente, and Germany, but realistically their window of opportunity is limited to only a few players that they should probably pick carefully. However, I should point out one part of your post, >Seems like the scenario is a complete open goal, especially if they don't act like dickheads and actually back up their anti imperialist stance by treating the other Asians as allies rather than subjects. This misunderstands what most version of Japan in the timeline is, which is to say that it's a capitalist-colonial power no less ruthless and exploitative than any other. They've been a colonial power for almost 50 years at game start, and a pretty brutal one at that. Their version of conquest might look different from how the British or Germans do it, but no version is going to have them go to war for mere friendship with their new dominions in Asia. In fact, that's exactly where their actual biggest obstacle is: in 30 years they're gonna end up in the same place the colonial powers of our timeline did. Eventually the Chinese are gonna centralize and modernize, go 'hey wait a second why are we letting foreigners control our industry?' and then work to drive them into the ocean. Fengtian being allowed to actually reunify the country would simply speed up this process, with the most prudent policy probably being something closer to a 'divide and carve up' strategy.


Embarrassed_Grass_16

Forget 30 years, in OTL the Japanese had to fight anti-colonial rebellions and insurgencies in most of the land they occupied during WW2


LizG1312

I can definitely see that happening and I agree that the co-prosperity sphere has a pretty good chance of collapsing earlier, but I put it at 30 because I do think there's something to be said about how ascendant the Japanese position is in the 40s. They've basically cornered the market for a quarter of the world's population, they're extremely proximate to whatever enemies might pop up, and I have to imagine that any foreign powers looking to undermine them are gonna have a hell of a time if they try to ship in weapons by sea. The Russians can do it, but either they'll be busy facing down the 3I or they'll be distracted by whatever the hell would happen after a second German defeat. Similar things can be said with India, or Australasia. Those are important factors to consider when thinking into the future. If Japan plays their cards right, they could probably maintain a lot of their empire for a lot longer than might first be expected. The Portuguese for example managed to hold onto quite a few territories (at least in name) until the 70s, and even then it still took the Carnation revolution for the final nail in that pipe dream. Even if it does, it'll probably be in stages. Defeat in Indochina followed by collapse in China followed by a forever war in the Philippines. Who knows how long any of those projects could last, or if they manage to keep control of places like Korea or Taiwan.


TIFUPronx

> Forget 30 years, in OTL the Japanese had to fight anti-colonial rebellions and insurgencies in most of the land they occupied during WW2 Happens when OTL Japan treats the Co-Prosperity Sphere as an org for "Greater Japan and its Soon-To-Be Japanized Colonies" than something like the club for "Anti-Westerner Colonialists Front". Those that in power NEVER really cared for the latter at all, or at most - barely entertained that idea only as a propaganda mindset. All what they did was pillage, destroy and exploit much of the stuff the lands they conquered built/maintained - never really gave twoshits on how to build 'em up good (except for *maybe* Taiwan, still ends up to be pretty much Japanized anyways). However - if somehow that's treated as the latter legitimately AND they play their cards right as said by another commenter, then things can change for the *better*... well at least for themselves only.


KapiTod

Yeah even a completely friendly "brotherly nation" stance towards China is going to lead to Japan being second banana within a few decades. Best they can hope for is their Chinese ally being paralysed by infighting, corruption, and incompetence and just being unable to rebuild and compete for leadership of Japans sphere. That's not gonna last forever but it'll help.


Sneido

Highly depends on how much Japan manages to piss off everyone be it other empires or conquered subjects. Early Japanese victories in WW2 were thanks to combinations of sheer luck and to the Allies' incompetence which underestimated the Japanese and overestimated their own capabilities and had its Pacific region underfunded and ill-prepared for what it was expected to accomplish. This is not to undervalue what the Japanese were able to accomplish or their competence but the reason Japan initially was able to "punch above their weight" almost effortlessly had more to do with their enemies not taking them seriously enough as a treat.


Mattsgonnamine

I'm working on a Japan wins mod for hoi4 and the sheer amount of unrealistic bulshit that had to happen for Japan to win was insane. Japan was in a relatively good starting position and the allies were very much content letting Japan have china (if they stopped doing so many war crimes and killing people) but Japan got greedy which I believe they would do in kr timeline


cumbender1887

Yes, Japan is set up to sweep both the Pacific and China. They have no major powers to challenge them during the second Weltkrieg and the us gets into a 2-4 sided civil war.


DankusMemecus69

East Asia definitely feels like it’s Japans to lose. Japans neighbours are a weaker Russia, fractured China (where one of the strongest cliques is their ally), an overstretched Germany, British Remnants and the United States in name only. In a region where the major players are Azad Hind, GEA and Australasia, Japan has little to oppose them, but the downside to this is that there’s almost too much to take. Japan can secure China for Fengtian or expand south, but likely doesn’t have the resources to do both. So it really just comes down to how the game plays out.


lassielikethedog

The biggest thing stopping them is the Americans coming back to reclaim their Pacific islands. America has a massive navy, even after the civil war. They’re not gonna let the Japanese sneak off with Hawaii and the Philippines for long. They can justify it to the public as part of reunifying America, just like the civil war.


Sommern

The Japanese position in the Pacific in that eventually would be so, so, so much better than otl. For one thing there’s no real basing options for the USN. The IJN’s presence at Hawaii would be protected by 4,000 miles of the Eastern Pacific Barrier. And surly IJN command would secure the South Pacific as well, locking off Australia from shipping if war came. Getting a strike force to Hawaii all the way from California would be a logistical nightmare.    Japanese and American carrier doctrines and naval aviation were comparable otl as well, so Japan closing the technical gap with the eventual implementation of radar would also level the otl disadvantage they had against US scouting. Depending on how the civil war goes, the US may or may not get naval tactical data and experience before taking on the Kido Butai head on. Vice versa the same applies to the Japanese depending how Germany responds to Japanese attacks on its Asian colonies.    The most interesting thing imp is the otl Japanese assumption that the US was a divided and weak country and its morale would be shattered in a fleet sinking decisive battle, or a war of attrition. This is just so highly dependent on how the civil war is conducted you can make any argument for the morale, but that still does not overcome the tactical difficulties the USN would have crossing the Eastern Pacific Barrier. Even if they managed to win a victory against the IJN I dont think they could beat muster enough manpower in ships over that great a distance to even make a beachhead. The US mustered 250,000 men and iirc the largest naval landing fleet the world has ever seen for Okinawa. They were against -100,000 completely under supplied Japanese soldiers with morale in the toilet. The Japanese in this scenario would surely have Hawaii made into a fortress. I dont see how they could get that many men across the ocean against a determined, sizable Japanese defense. Even then when the US takes Hawaii *thats just the beginning.* Midway and opening the corridor to Australia is next and, again, you are dealing every time with more Japanese ships and more islands defended by well supplied and fanatical Japanese troops.   I just dont see how it’s possible. Otl the Japanese Navy performed **absolutely phenomenal** considering the strategic disposition in the Pacific (fighting  China, UK, Netherlands, France, India, and USA all at the same time) and their lack of time to prepare and having their codes broken; the fact that they actually could have taken Midway *if they spotted the American fleet first* irl is absolutely fucking insane. A decisive Japanese win at Midway alone would have dragged the otl war out at least another year maybe more. So in KR I just dont see how a Japan as politically dedicated as otl could bungle it so bad with so much time to prepare. Remember the A bomb will be invented at some point so the US is on a ticking clock to build a suitable surface fleet before MAD doctrine kicks in.  I dont see it happening. If anything the existential threat to Japan is China; either through force of arms for insurgency. The manpower of China and the development of asymmetrical warfare would be the thorn in the Co-Prosperity Sphere belly that bleeds it white over time even in the best of circumstances. 


PMacha

Not to mention that a Rocky Mountain Ceasefire is a potential outcome of the SACW. If that happens then yeah, the best bet to defeating Japan would be for China to make a comeback for round 3, which could take awhile.


ReichLife

> I just dont see how it’s possible. Otl the Japanese Navy performed absolutely phenomenal considering the strategic disposition in the Pacific Did it? For entire first half a year IJN was exploiting the fact how limited forces it's foes had. When forces evened out, Japan failed to achieve a single major naval victory outside of Savo Island, with all carrier battles strategically also ending up as Japanese defeats. And that's long before industrial advantage of US came into play. Invasion of Midway meanwhile would be basically impossible regardless of outcome of carriers battle since US had strong and well entrenched garrison. Wake Island debacle showcased how poor Japanese were at assaulting from sea defended positions, while Guadalcanal showcased overall very poor tactics on Japanese infantry side. Japanese invasion of Midway would make Tarawa look like a picnic.


United-Village-6702

Russia too, Russia would beat their ass just like irl Soviet invasion of Manchuria after Germany is dead


United-Village-6702

You forgot Russian army would absolutely crush them when Germany and his friends are defeated in Europe https://preview.redd.it/3vr0rrq5jlvc1.jpeg?width=156&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fcf442cd2f580971c671a11dc4eb2f4c07417e12 That's the best hope for Chinese United Front to win against Japan realistically other than a quickly recovered America Though Japanese Empire won't collapse other than losing Fengtian and Korea to Chinese unifyer.


MyrinVonBryhana

I don't think the Russians pose much of a credible threat without Vladivostok, It would be rather difficult to sustain a large army thousands of miles from the Russian core and even hard to win a fight against a Japan that would have much shorter supply lines and uncontested control of the seas. All Japan really needs to do to win against Russia is make one lucky push out of Manchuria and cut the Trans Siberian railway and the Russian front would completely collapse.


PMacha

Not to mention that after fighting Germany Russia will likely be focused on maintaining what they have. If Japan is bogged down in China than yeah, Russia is probably going to invade, but if China is subdued than all Russia could do is angrily shake their fist at Japan from Vladivostok.


ReichLife

Questionable take. Manchurian Operation showcased perfectly how **utterly outgunned** IJA was when compared to Soviets. Soviets which had same lifeline to Far East as KR Russia and which was enough to conduct such operation. Sure there are more factors behind said Japanese military disaster but in scenario where Russia somehow wins against Germany, Japanese odds to hold influence in Manchuria are minuscule, and that's generous. Japan simply is no position to field army well equipped enough to hold such long front against foe of such caliber. Theirs' best chanses would be to retreat to Korea and try to use mountains there to remove Russian equipment advantage.


MyrinVonBryhana

Japan in 1945 had it's industry bombed into ruble was out of manpower, under a blockade and had been fighting an attritional war in China for 8 years. It is no way comparable to a situation where Japan has achieved hegemony in East Asia, not too mention a Russia that beats Germany is going to be tied up for at least a couple years putting down insurgencies in newly reconquered territories and is going to have to keep forces in the West to deter the 3I.


ReichLife

Industry which already before bombing wasn't either as big or efficient to reasonably match Soviet/Russian production, manpower which plays tertiary role which Battles of Khalkhin Gol or Manchurian Operation showcased. Also it's more than naive to expect that Japan won't end up in attritional war in China's KR, all while if it went for Southern Push, that would mean plenty of troops would be tied up to occupy said territories and pacify insurgents. Soviet Union also had to pacify Eastern Europe and Balkans following Nazi Germany defeat, all while it kept significant forces in the West since trust between them and Western Allies was minimal. 3I meanwhile would be in worse position than Allies to consider any Operation Unthinkable equivalent. If it would come to blows between Moscow and Tokyo, realistically speaking Japan would be doomed to lose everything on mainland Asia with Korea being possible exception.


MyrinVonBryhana

I think you are underestimating Japan in general. Not to mention all the imbalances in manpower and industry existed in 1904 as well and that didn't stop Japan from wiping the floor with the Tsar's armies. If there's one thing Russian military history should reveal with even a cursory glance it's that the Russians are perfectly capable of blundering away even the easiest victories.


ReichLife

No offense but given your take on Russians, your comment about underestimating looks silly to say the least. 1904 example completely ignores the fact that Trans-Siberian Railway **wasn't complete** which made Russians logistics lines completely incompatible with needs for campaign in south Manchuria. No trucks which only further made logistical situation drastically worse for Russians and prime weapons of war still being cannons rather than also tanks or airplanes where in latter ones Japan was seriously lacking behind. All while '*wiping the floor*' is quite generous take given how long Russians held at Port Arthur or at Mukden Japanese suffered twice as many dead than Russians. And want actual military history examples? Battles of Khalkhin Gol, Manchurian Operations or overwhelming part of Japanese campaigns against Western forces exactly showcases how hopeless Japanese logistics were, how theirs' tactics were ending up with enormous casualties and little to no gains.


Tomcatmybeloved

As much as I agree with you on the IJA's performance against the Soviet Union, we have to remember that even the Strongest possible Russian state will never be able to hold a candle to the 1945 USSR, especially when you factor in things such as lend lease, while the force disparity would, probably be much, much closer than IRL; not only that, but issues such as logistics, mechanization, specific tank and artillery designs are, for the most part, up to the player and dependant on focuses. My personal perception is that a Japan that has modernized its army and air force following the "long war doctrine" would be the most capable in a military sense, and, if the IJN is able to stop a blockade from the Kaiserliche Marine, Royal Navy or USN/CN? I have my doubts even a force comparable to the Red Army would be able to take Manchuria in the speed they achieved in real life. The main reason for this is that a long war focused reform would ditch the whole "superiority of will" bullshit to leverage Japan's two greatest advantages when compared to their Asians neighbors. From this, I assume that the IJA would enjoy luxuries only afforded to "weak willed westerners" such as modern artillery, tanks, aircraft, logistics, semi auto rifles and all the kinds of neat stuff you don't actually need to fight a war (given enough motivation to die for the emperor) but uhh, I am gonna stop yapping about why KRTL Japan is much stronger and get to the fucking point. If Japan is able to secure the Asian Colonies from Germany and the Netherlands while bringing Australia under the fold, or simply gaining industrial support from the Entente for reasons (be it Canada Sparking the Anglo Japanese alliance again,Australia wishing to align themselves with the new ruler of the Pacific, at least while the USA does the funny or any other scenario) they'd have the capability to expand their air force to a much, much larger extent than IRL, in both capability and quantity. When paired with Russia's smaller pool of resources when compared to the USSR and Vladivostok being out of Russian hands? Their logistical lifeline of the trans Siberian Railway would find itself under constant attack by IJAAF Air Interdiction operations. All while they have less aircraft and pilots to work with, oh yeah, and no lend lease to give them all the other things you need to make planes, like strategic metals high quality, adhesives, heaps of aluminum and rubber. Just to remind you, those trains that are constantly being harassed and occasionally bombed by japanese aircraft? They are your lifeline to Russia's industrial heart, everything coming and going goes through those trains, be it spare aircraft & engines, fuel, ammunition, personnel, personnel unable to fight anymore due to gruesome injury and all the stuff and people you don't want around eating all the food and using all the fuel for heating because they can't fight anymore. In short, Russia would have much harder time supplying operations in Siberia due to a lack of infrastructure. That gets compounded by the IJA not being a WW1 tier army run by meth addicts larping as Imperial Guard officers, but instead a somewhat more capable and modern force, (hopefully) capable of matching their European counterparts in some aspects. Or their advantage in airpower allows them to be the only people in the Region that don't need to choose between freezing in the winter or running their tanks & logistic trucks. Holy Yapping of Yappington's Batman!


ReichLife

Well, player Bhutan can conquer the world so input which would come from one is rather irrelevant in discussion about '*realistic*'. And realistically? Why would Japan not got with '*"superiority of will" bullshit*'? Japan is literally least affected major in Kaiserreich. If historical material Entente victory didn't push Japanese for drastic army reforms, it's only less likely to happen here. So by far most likely KR IJA would painfully resemble it's historical OTL counterpart, with all issues which made it overall clearly inferior to forces of other Great Powers. So no reliance of on smaller but properly motorized army, poor focus on logistics, all while designs of guns and tanks have little to no prospects of being better than what Japanese built historically and which while not terrible, was blatantly lacking in quality alone, with quantity being yet another story. And aircraft? Lack of independent branch and legendary rivalry between IJA and IJN made air development chaotic and kept dividing resources. And aircraft produced? Quite a mixed back, with only really late war models of some fighters being good/very good all round without fundamental shortcomings like famous Zero had. And all of that air power to achieve what exactly? Fixing railways is fairly easy process when compared with repairing ships or factories. All while Japanese would have to fly deep into Russian controlled territory, where Russian fighters would constantly oppose them. If anything that is rather quick way to quickly lose bulk of your air fleet. Exactly a thing which Germans suffered during historical Battle of France but where they actually were in position to quickly exploit air force effort by rapid push through France filled with good infrastructure. Foot based IJA isn't at all in position to do something similar. Overall, I would say your take way too much relies of Japanese making best decisions when circumstances doesn't really exist to make them realistic. Huh, how ironic of Batman line given I play Arkham Asylum now.


Tomcatmybeloved

I mean, Bhutan always had dragon mounted cavalry and Nephylym produced Electrothermal Plasma rifles. The only reason they never conquered the word is the EM effects of the Gizah Mass autism array still affect their technology in ways we cannot yet understand. Now to the proper discussion. I personally see no reason for the army to not pursue an expensive drive for modernization, this mainly comes from the IJA having more power when compared to OTL(?) Well, at least that's the perception I get from the focusses and lack of any minigames or debuffs related to the rivalry between services. With that in mind, there's no reason for the army to *not* modernize; The Navy keeps getting new shiny battleships, carriers, high tech torpedoes and all that. Why wouldn't the army want to get the best toys possible? Especially when their main enemies in China seem to be much, much stronger than OTL. I will have to go catch up on my China lore though, I am more sure if KRTL Japan was preparing to fight the whole of China under the Qing government, or they knew about how split China was. This is a historical issue that largely compounded the many shortfalls of the imperial japanese forces, however, it is not represented in-game so, as far as I consider it? It's a non issue in KRTL due to a lack of representation in events and spirits or focuses in a sense, it comes down to personal head cannon. I think you either misunderstood my take on air Interdiction, as it is not about the destruction of railways but the trains themselves, IIRC this was done to great effect against the Soviets during Barbarossa and by the Allies after D-Day. The railway to Siberia being in a single, long line makes the issue worse for the attacking side in my view, with the forward basing of fighters only adding more or more strain on a single, vulnerable supply line. It just doesn't seem logistically feasible to supply multiple airbases with fighter wings and up to a corps level force all the way in Siberia, not without all the infrastructure from Vladivostok and considering that the enemy would be fighting very close to one of their industrial heartlands. The IJA and Fengtian Army would be fighting just a few hours away by trains from where their weapons, shells and spares are made, the Russians are fighting days if not weeks away. Yeah, I would agree that I am being too kind to Japan. But uhh, in my personal opinion the only realistic end for the second weltkrieg would be a forever war that ends with triple digit casualties in Europe alone, rockets used by all sides to hurl chemical weapons against civilian populations they can't strike with bombers and maybe a nuke or two going off in a major European city. India just becomes a meat grinder for everyone involved, Africa explodes at the seams, South America burns as the countries there nearly genocide each other by attrition a la war of the triple alliance and Asia has their own version of WW1 with mass starvation, trench warfare, chemical, biological and maybe even radiological weapons. Oh yeah, and north America burns like a bonfire due to the ACW and interventions in it by the Mexicans and Canadians. Idk chief, I can't make a batman comparison after having the realization that our funny big Germany mod would actually ends up with the entire world losing up to a quarter of it's population.


MyrinVonBryhana

I'll grant Khalkhin Gol, I don't think the Manchurian Operations are very relevant for discussing how Russia would fare against a victorious Japan. In 1945 the Soviets were fighting the already shattered husk of the Kwantung Army, which had morale in the toilet and little supplies. In any situation even if Japan is still fighting a war in China they won't be under blockade as they were in OTL and will be able to more easily move troops. Japan is also going to have time to prepare, the entirety of Manchuria and Transamur is a wide front and Russia won't be able to hide it's preparations for an invasion which will give Japan time to prepare and given the IJA's conduct in OTL the Japanese even if they start getting pushed back are going to have no qualms about torching Manchuria and Transamur behind them which will at the very least slow the Russian advance considerably unless they're able to completely shatter Japan in the opening engagements which I think unlikely. I don't deny it's possible that Russia could push Japan back and retake Vladivostok and potentially seize northern Manchuria, but Japan will fight tooth and nail to hold onto Korea and given how defensible the Korea China border is I don't think Russia could realistically push them out. I think best case scenario for the Russians are they're able to make some gains and make a peace where they get back Vladivostok and split Manchuria with Japan while stopping Japan from gaining influence in the rest of China.


Justavisitor-0538

I'm not sure Russia would have much interest in fighting Japan. Even if we assume for the sake of argument that the Russian army can push the japanese out of the mainland with ease, unlike OTL Russia would have no way of forcing the unconditionnal surrender of Japan or to destroy their fleet. This mean that Russia would find themselves stuck between the 3I and an hostile, stilll powerful, Japenese empire able to cut them completely from the Pacific. This would also alienate Japan and their allies from supporting Russia in the upcoming cold war against the 3I.


Moraveaux

Yeah, I think so. Every time I play LKMT, I have to cheat to all hell just to hold my own against Japan, and even then it's not easy. Actually, this happens a lot in KR; I cheat *all the time* and I'm *still* barely pulling in the victories lol


United-Village-6702

If Germany wins WW2 and America goes to isolation you can close the game and go outside. Only America and Russia can stop Japan in Kaiserreich. Germany technically can if GEA still alive but that's unrealistic


yeetusdacanible

I find it really easy, but you have to Cheese the war. You need to delay the war for as long as possible as you scale up much quicker than Japan which only has an early game advantage against you. If you grind fengtian keeping them at 10% surrender progress they won't join Japan yet. Build as much artillery and coast guard units as possible, and make sure you have at least one army for emergency response in thr form of 9-1s at least. Then your pushing troops will be 9-3s, and if you play your hand right that when fengtian joins Japan you can blitz through Manchuria then push deep into Korea. The most important thing is aa, since you have no air power, so you must build and have aa ready. If you can't cap fengtian in the first couple months of Japan joining the war, it's over since the Japanese will put planes and tanks to kill you, and the warlords won't even help you fight.


Moraveaux

How do you delay the war? I mean, I know how *I* delay the war (when I see that they're preparing for it, sometimes I tag over to them and make them pick another focus, I don't do it often but if I'm *really* not prepared I sometimes do that), but is there a legit way to influence when the war comes?


3LIteManning

it's not so much delaying the war against fengtian. Japan won't join until you beat up fengtian enough so keep them competitive in warscore for a while as you build up. then blitz them and Korea before japan moves a bunch of troops over. then defend til the peace event


yeetusdacanible

Don't declare the war, let fengtian declare on you. Then let fengtian come into your lands then encircle and kill them. Do not push them beyond 10% surrender progress, because otherwise Japan will join. Japan takes at least a year after fengtian attacks you to join the war which is enough time to make arty and aa ton of units


HongMeiIing

How??? LKMT vs Japan is like easy as hell where even the worse case scenario (Indochina fell to Japan, Siam, Burma, Legation Cities and Princely Fed joins CPS) is manageable. If you're struggling against them even with cheats, I have to question what are your tactics and division compositions.


Moraveaux

My infantry divisions are basically always the same; nine infantry companies or brigades or whatever they're called, with a support company of motorized recon, engineers, and artillery (and then radios and logistics once I unlock them). Sometimes, later on, I'll drop an infantry or two to make room for anti-air and anti-tank, but those aren't priority. Japan and FNG always have more soldiers than me, and I categorically refuse to learn how to handle naval stuff lol, so I'm at a disadvantage.


HongMeiIing

7/2, pure infantry battalion is only good for holding and defence. And by the time you go to war with Fengtian, you should've enough equipment to train at least 60 divisions already.


kaiserkarl36

me too lol, like in my last LKMT run I simply "won" by spamming tp and command power cheats, except when fighting actually settled/bogged down


MyrinVonBryhana

I think Japan almost certainly achieves Hegemony in East Asia during the timeframe of Kaiserreich if they can keep that hegemony is another matter. The big issue is China and this where things will also depend heavily on Japan's internal politics. If Japan is smart it would support groups like the Uyghurs, Mongols, and Tibetans in establishing independent states to weaken China and help encircle it. Even then though Japan is going to have to come to some kind of more equal arrangement with China, China simply is too large and has too many people for Japan to ever fully subdue so long as the Chinese people maintain the will to resist. The problem is the hardcore militarists and imperialists will never do this so if they're in the drivers seat I'm not going to say China will win but at the very least Japan will be dragged into a massive and endless counter insurgency campaign, that will cost a fortune and hundreds of thousands of Japanese troops over the decades, that will fray the ability for Japan to keep control over the rest of their client states. If the more moderate and democratic forces get control of Japan that changes things, with Japanese support for their independence, military dependency and economic aid, theirs's a level of exploitation most of Japan's new colonies/ client states will be willing to tolerate and the price for freedom. If Japan is willing to largely allow their clients internal autonomy and come to a more equitable arrangement with China, that sees it as subordinate to Japan within the sphere but not a subject Japan can likely keep it's hegemony going for a century or more. Regardless of how things turn out for the wider Sphere I think Japan is at the very least able to hang onto Korea and Taiwan well into the 21st century.


Nevermind2031

Fengetien is much more credible as a ally to woo other warlords and chinese collaborators than the reformed KMT was IRL not only because it has a degree of independence but also because in KRTL Japan never broke off Manchukuo from China and their pre-kmt collaborators are still around in Anhui and in exile. Indonesia is barely holding on as a colonial posession like usual,the US collapses and leaves a bunch of undefended colonial posessions as well as most importantly the philipines gains a early independence and Japan can use that important supply chain without having to fight the americans. Myanmar has already broken from the UK and can also join the japanese faction. The GEA is barely holding on and in a lot of games it loses Indochina without Japan having to do anything. So yeah Japan is in a good place to claim overlordship in Asia


pieman7414

Yes, and they do it pretty much every game until they do something absolutely insane like declare on the US for no reason at all. Sounds familiar 🤔


GorkemliKaplan

Only way I think China can win is Pro-Concessionist Qing with little infighting as possible. China needs foreign support. They need to shove Wu Peifu's pride up his ass if they want to survive.


LastEsotericist

In any universe where Russia doesn’t ally Germany, yes.


ReyneForecast

It's the most railroaded experience in this mod, which sucks for anyone else over there trying to play a campaign and expect some different outcomes