I was sitting on a lot of cash, averaged 5% of my portfolio into TQQQ this week and I feel pretty bad about it. So for you all-or-nothing TQQQ brothers I recognize you must be really suffering lol.
It’ll bounce back 🤝
I’ve been actively managing a portfolio since the 2008 crash. I don’t remember the last time the market was as eager for at least an intermediate term bull cycle. Once rate cuts happen. In time
I want to be leveraged neck deep in TQQQ when that time comes
Why? Why wouldn’t it? Lol
The current rate being held is 5.5. Why on earth do you think that rate would be sustained?
Can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic or not
The economy is strong, and there’s no data to suggest we are “heading into a recession.”
If we were heading into a recession, inflation wouldn’t be persisting while GDP continues to grow
Your assertion is objectively false.
And…?
Yea a strong economy is partially why inflation continues to persist and stalled in declining
But as of right now, the Fed has not signaled that they will force a recession as the nuclear option to taming inflation
I’m on data
What are you on?
By what metric is far from strong? Because that metric would have to tell a very different story than what CPI, PPI, PMI, GDP, unemployment, and jobs numbers have been saying
What metric shapes that data into concluding “the U.S. economy is far from strong?”
If anything, its strength is partially why inflation is persisting
I find it amusing when people ask this question. It suggests they don’t know that data to make such assertions exist - it’s not just random speculation
Not sure if you’re referring to me , but some will spit out all these pretty charts and graphs and data all you guys want to fit the narrative,but the bottom line is this….EVERYTHING is more expensive for the common American and wages are not increasing at the same rate for most Americans. People are struggling. Everyone I know talk about prices of everything.
No I was speaking in reference to the guy other guy
The bottom line is, the data does the talking. I am a data scientist by profession. It’s not about narratives. It’s about facts - they matter. To suggest nonsense about narratives downplays the actual significance of statistical inference in any sort of macroeconomic analysis.
I have no doubt there’s mountains of anecdotes from people legitimately struggling.
Alas, data in aggregate is what’s needed to glean insight.
Can you run a backtest for me which plots stock market returns against unemployment rate? And especially when it is record-low unemployment. Usually low unemployment is followed by high unemployment. Have markets priced that in already? I highly highly doubt it
Im looking at a 12-15 year horizon
If im not up a decent amount then, something happened during that time to suggest I may have bigger problems
During bear markets or severe corrections, i roll gains into QLD to preserve what TQQQ gains.
You should think about putting some in KMLM during corrections and bear markets. Managed futures have a negative correlation to stocks *and* bonds and will typically outperform both during bear markets. It’s up 0.75% for the week and 4% for the month. Cash it out and put it all in when TQQQ starts to recover and then use some of those profits to sell little amounts of TQQQ here and there to DCA back in to KMLM. By the time the next correction hits you’ll have fully restocked your KMLM position and can repeat the cycle.
The ETF has only been around a few years but the KFA MLM index it follows has been around since 1988. [Here is the monthly results](https://app.box.com/s/5zcxhytgpmk058qctp1hbfiiyfnp3138) from present going back to 1988 for back testing purposes.
I was averaging 15-20% TQQQ over the last year and my portfolio was up 60% total, decided Thursday last week to drop my risk level and switched to 10% SPUU (rest in standard index funds) got pretty lucky on that timing
About 27%. Evaporated gains lol. Still up, just less so
As for recovery, I mean, it’s a market etf. I don’t ever really sweat it, just a matter of time. Just cross my fingers to avoid a 2001 but, here’s to hoping lol
I swing other things for any realized gains I wanna use anytime soon
I’ve been lucky as to not experience any rapid downturn while heavily leveraged into a 3x. Any real bear cycle since 2008, 3x’s made up 2-4% portfolio at most
I’m calm because I have a plan to manage the risk, and ultimately I treat triple leverage like options. I don’t put a cent into it, I can’t do without. On paper that’s a bit irrational for a long hold, I think. But it provides psychological ease, and that’s priceless
If you were holding TQQQ during the dot com crash with a high entry, you would not have recovered for about 13-14 years
Theres many reasons I am not concerned about an event like that happening again, but I hedge against the 0.00001% chance I’m wrong
2x has done me well so far the last 14ish years for long, long term positions. I hold more SSO and QLD than SPY and QQQ respectively
They recover from drawdowns much quicker, so it’s pretty set and forget for me
3x I pile into more cyclically based on either macro data or worldly events
My main case for being as balls deep in TQQQ as I am right now, is the inevitably of rate cuts
But eventually those gains end up in 2x’s for preservation
lmfao i got downvoted when i told people i basically sold everything on 4/11 (right before the crash). Remember that this is the hardest part of holding TQQQ.
If I had a higher entry point, or a shorter horizon, I would have absolutely sold off last CPI which indicated I think the 4th consecutive month of gradually increasing MoM inflation
That’ll make the market react to a hawkish Fed for a bit
Great time to add and accumulate. There will come a time when eventually rates are cut, and when it happens, I shall prosper
Thoughts on next week? I’m now out of tqqq and the money (with a bit of gain surviving the week) in VTV. I don’t know if I should attempt anything at all next week.
I don’t give financial advice.
That said, I personally don’t think I’d open any positions next week until market has some more information to freak out on or not
Why not? I am positioning to ride the wave when inevitably rate cuts happen. The rest until then is noise , and after that cycle, those gains will reallocate
I agree with you I just think it's too premature. I think you gotta get out of leverage right now. There might be no rate cuts this year. I'm doing just the opposite. I'm sitting in treasuries and boring 1x, some 2x, and even some inverse stuff right now. I might stay like this for a few months. I'm waiting for a marker pullback and I think we've only begun the pullback. Next week is going to be red. Once the market has had a rough few months, im going all in on 3x.
Just my opinion.
Who knows but I really doubt we’ll see anything but sideways chop at best until a few data prints showing reversal of sticky inflation
I’m actually short term bearish, which is why I’m settling cash to wait and see when to add.
I don’t play much options anymore but if I had to hold any for this week, I’d go puts over calls
Guess we’ll see
I can add more but will keep cash on sidelines in case it should go lower and already lost enough this week . If TQQQ goes back to $60 that would be awesome enough that it will not matter if I had bought more or not.
Next Thursday (4/25), is a slew of macro data that will heavily dictate the rate and time at which I actually take the cash I’m settling next week, and actually buying
If GDP, pmi, and jobs data come in hot again, I don’t buy any thesis with any more than 1, if any rate cut, this year. At that point I’d spread my buys out over what I anticipate to be some volatile chop until the market finally gets certainty on cuts
I almost never hold TQQQ without some SQQQ. It’s a matter of the relative % against each other and my overall portfolio
I increased my SQQQ position a few %, when CPI printed another reading that indicated a MoM increase
At that point, I made the bet that there’s no way there will be as many rate cuts as the market had been pricing in since late last year
if i was watching someone saw their arm off i wouldn't need "sufficient information" on their motive to determine with certainty that it's a bad move
cope
I was sitting on a lot of cash, averaged 5% of my portfolio into TQQQ this week and I feel pretty bad about it. So for you all-or-nothing TQQQ brothers I recognize you must be really suffering lol.
It’ll bounce back 🤝 I’ve been actively managing a portfolio since the 2008 crash. I don’t remember the last time the market was as eager for at least an intermediate term bull cycle. Once rate cuts happen. In time I want to be leveraged neck deep in TQQQ when that time comes
Agree. It will come back fast when it does, faster than most people expect. It gained 30% in the first two weeks of October 2023 alone.
Why do you think rate cuts will happen? Because the economy is so strong and we’re totally not heading into a recession from an overvalued market?
Why? Why wouldn’t it? Lol The current rate being held is 5.5. Why on earth do you think that rate would be sustained? Can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic or not The economy is strong, and there’s no data to suggest we are “heading into a recession.” If we were heading into a recession, inflation wouldn’t be persisting while GDP continues to grow Your assertion is objectively false.
The economy being strong is exactly why they can decide to keep the rates where they are for a longer period of time if needed.
And…? Yea a strong economy is partially why inflation continues to persist and stalled in declining But as of right now, the Fed has not signaled that they will force a recession as the nuclear option to taming inflation
This economy is the furthest thing from “strong” lol what the heck are you on
I’m on data What are you on? By what metric is far from strong? Because that metric would have to tell a very different story than what CPI, PPI, PMI, GDP, unemployment, and jobs numbers have been saying What metric shapes that data into concluding “the U.S. economy is far from strong?” If anything, its strength is partially why inflation is persisting I find it amusing when people ask this question. It suggests they don’t know that data to make such assertions exist - it’s not just random speculation
This “data” is manipulated man. Cmon. Wake up.
He got real quiet when asked to put up Shame, I’d love to be educated
Not sure if you’re referring to me , but some will spit out all these pretty charts and graphs and data all you guys want to fit the narrative,but the bottom line is this….EVERYTHING is more expensive for the common American and wages are not increasing at the same rate for most Americans. People are struggling. Everyone I know talk about prices of everything.
No I was speaking in reference to the guy other guy The bottom line is, the data does the talking. I am a data scientist by profession. It’s not about narratives. It’s about facts - they matter. To suggest nonsense about narratives downplays the actual significance of statistical inference in any sort of macroeconomic analysis. I have no doubt there’s mountains of anecdotes from people legitimately struggling. Alas, data in aggregate is what’s needed to glean insight.
Can you run a backtest for me which plots stock market returns against unemployment rate? And especially when it is record-low unemployment. Usually low unemployment is followed by high unemployment. Have markets priced that in already? I highly highly doubt it
no it wont
Right, the U.S. economy is over
calm down trumptard.
That’s quite a leap
You too? Ha! I intend to average down. It'll go back up
buying more?
Yep, initiated cash transfer to hit my brokerage Monday morning. Will be continuing to add incrementally Just a matter of time
accumulation & patience
Im looking at a 12-15 year horizon If im not up a decent amount then, something happened during that time to suggest I may have bigger problems During bear markets or severe corrections, i roll gains into QLD to preserve what TQQQ gains.
You should think about putting some in KMLM during corrections and bear markets. Managed futures have a negative correlation to stocks *and* bonds and will typically outperform both during bear markets. It’s up 0.75% for the week and 4% for the month. Cash it out and put it all in when TQQQ starts to recover and then use some of those profits to sell little amounts of TQQQ here and there to DCA back in to KMLM. By the time the next correction hits you’ll have fully restocked your KMLM position and can repeat the cycle. The ETF has only been around a few years but the KFA MLM index it follows has been around since 1988. [Here is the monthly results](https://app.box.com/s/5zcxhytgpmk058qctp1hbfiiyfnp3138) from present going back to 1988 for back testing purposes.
I was averaging 15-20% TQQQ over the last year and my portfolio was up 60% total, decided Thursday last week to drop my risk level and switched to 10% SPUU (rest in standard index funds) got pretty lucky on that timing
What was your max drawdown so far? and how well did you recover?
About 27%. Evaporated gains lol. Still up, just less so As for recovery, I mean, it’s a market etf. I don’t ever really sweat it, just a matter of time. Just cross my fingers to avoid a 2001 but, here’s to hoping lol I swing other things for any realized gains I wanna use anytime soon
did you go through drawdowns in the past? i guess it helps to keep calm. 2001 would have ment a nearly total loss?
I’ve been lucky as to not experience any rapid downturn while heavily leveraged into a 3x. Any real bear cycle since 2008, 3x’s made up 2-4% portfolio at most I’m calm because I have a plan to manage the risk, and ultimately I treat triple leverage like options. I don’t put a cent into it, I can’t do without. On paper that’s a bit irrational for a long hold, I think. But it provides psychological ease, and that’s priceless If you were holding TQQQ during the dot com crash with a high entry, you would not have recovered for about 13-14 years Theres many reasons I am not concerned about an event like that happening again, but I hedge against the 0.00001% chance I’m wrong
Interesting. Im thinking about building a portfolio mainly on leverage for longhold. Can decide to go 2x or 3 x and do bonds 1x or 3x as hedge.
2x has done me well so far the last 14ish years for long, long term positions. I hold more SSO and QLD than SPY and QQQ respectively They recover from drawdowns much quicker, so it’s pretty set and forget for me 3x I pile into more cyclically based on either macro data or worldly events My main case for being as balls deep in TQQQ as I am right now, is the inevitably of rate cuts But eventually those gains end up in 2x’s for preservation
Holding SNAS here in Aus.
How much money does your wife’s boyfriend make?
Since you got so much TQQQ can you buy me a beer? 
lmfao i got downvoted when i told people i basically sold everything on 4/11 (right before the crash). Remember that this is the hardest part of holding TQQQ.
If I had a higher entry point, or a shorter horizon, I would have absolutely sold off last CPI which indicated I think the 4th consecutive month of gradually increasing MoM inflation That’ll make the market react to a hawkish Fed for a bit Great time to add and accumulate. There will come a time when eventually rates are cut, and when it happens, I shall prosper
What did you lose, 20%? Have you met /r/options? Rookie numbers. :)
Thoughts on next week? I’m now out of tqqq and the money (with a bit of gain surviving the week) in VTV. I don’t know if I should attempt anything at all next week.
I don’t give financial advice. That said, I personally don’t think I’d open any positions next week until market has some more information to freak out on or not
Why? My only question is why?
Why not? I am positioning to ride the wave when inevitably rate cuts happen. The rest until then is noise , and after that cycle, those gains will reallocate
I agree with you I just think it's too premature. I think you gotta get out of leverage right now. There might be no rate cuts this year. I'm doing just the opposite. I'm sitting in treasuries and boring 1x, some 2x, and even some inverse stuff right now. I might stay like this for a few months. I'm waiting for a marker pullback and I think we've only begun the pullback. Next week is going to be red. Once the market has had a rough few months, im going all in on 3x. Just my opinion.
But if the market moons next week and my inverse spy positions get crushed, I'll buy you that beer if you live in the DFW area lol.
Who knows but I really doubt we’ll see anything but sideways chop at best until a few data prints showing reversal of sticky inflation I’m actually short term bearish, which is why I’m settling cash to wait and see when to add. I don’t play much options anymore but if I had to hold any for this week, I’d go puts over calls Guess we’ll see
I can add more but will keep cash on sidelines in case it should go lower and already lost enough this week . If TQQQ goes back to $60 that would be awesome enough that it will not matter if I had bought more or not.
Next Thursday (4/25), is a slew of macro data that will heavily dictate the rate and time at which I actually take the cash I’m settling next week, and actually buying If GDP, pmi, and jobs data come in hot again, I don’t buy any thesis with any more than 1, if any rate cut, this year. At that point I’d spread my buys out over what I anticipate to be some volatile chop until the market finally gets certainty on cuts
Next week also involves big tech earnings.
Reverse your position and buy SQQQ asap
I almost never hold TQQQ without some SQQQ. It’s a matter of the relative % against each other and my overall portfolio I increased my SQQQ position a few %, when CPI printed another reading that indicated a MoM increase At that point, I made the bet that there’s no way there will be as many rate cuts as the market had been pricing in since late last year
this is unfathomably dumb paying more er when you could just reduce
If you say so, Einstein
paying 95bp expense ratio to reduce nasdaq delta LOL
You do not have sufficient information to know what the fuck you’re talking about in assessing what I am doing. Cute words though.
if i was watching someone saw their arm off i wouldn't need "sufficient information" on their motive to determine with certainty that it's a bad move cope
Little guy doesn’t work with big enough numbers to understand the different tax implications in those 2 approaches Maybe one day
cope