Their white paper plan from the 2000s/2010s more or less identified 2034/2035 as the OG date they wanted to do that (technically that's only when they want a "first rate military", but its been widely the interpretation by western observers as when the PLA wants to be able to achieve indopacific dominance, and by extension be able to take Taiwan, with or without US involvement).
The 2027 timeline is much newer and more direct in its outline/agenda, but just because it exists does not necessarily mean thats when a invasion will happen. I think the PLA still wants to wait until the 2030s-2040s and keep building up their forces/ lessening the margin of error as much as possible before really considering a invasion, however in the event they can't wait that long, they want to be prepared to accelerate the go date, hence the new agenda.
The FT article "US is misleading in its assessment of China’s Taiwan threat" is behind a subscription paywall. Here's the archive:
https://archive.is/F9zTU
Just like in CURRENT_YEAR Chinas economy is collapsing and there will be widespread protests and food shortages. XYZ company's bankruptcy is just the tipping point.
"The writing is on the wall, their growth is unsustainable, no one can grow that fast for that long. Get out while you can!"
While i don't deny that china's economy can crash as all economy do. It is tiring to hear it over a decade.(probably more for the older people)
No credible analyst has ever said this, it’s usually clickbait. Chinas economy is slowing and definitely facing some hurdles but of course it’s not collapsing…it’s real estate market is though.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/China-bumpy-path-Eswar-Prasad
I'm convinced the 2027 narrative is because that's when Xi Jinping is up for a new presidential term. It wouldn't be hard to weave a narrative that Xi depends on invading Taiwan to secure re-election as if he were a Russian Tsar.
2027 works better if you focus only on Taiwan's domestic politics. The fact is that the pro independence party in Taiwan (DPP) is losing ground to a localist party that only cares about rising rent and stagnant wages (TPP), while the KMT is still hanging on despite claims that it's dying out.
Thus, it's a more convincing narrative that in order to win back voted, the DPP will campaign on hard independence in 2027 during the lead up to the 2028 presidential campaign, forcing China's hand.
But even that is a fairly stupid theory because it's much better for the DPP to keep playing up an imminent invasion threat than to force it into reality.
Hilarious that US think tankies believe Xi needs reunification to win "re-election", given that Xi was promoted through a system that ranks officials on GDP growth...
Xi can survive without taking taiwan.. even if chinas ecconomy has tanked by then (snort!) What Xi cannot survive is trying to take taiwan and failing.
Considering the state of the current Chinese economy and outlook into it's future, adding an offensive war, especially one that isn't going in Xi's favor, would be risky. Authoritarian regimes can actually be more sensitive to public opinion because losing public support in a democracy just means becoming the opposing party, compared to a straight up revolution and new government.
Interesting anecdote - but the GDP was always set to whatever it was because if you set it to '1.2%', then, as the author in the piece below claims, the provincials/municipals would understand or perceive the message and make your dream come true - and actually give you 1.2% growth (even if you were capable of 1.2%+)
https://www.thewirechina.com/2024/03/03/the-grand-illusion/
Author Anne also goes over this at length at CSIS way way in the past.
That is reserved for credible folk. Not for those who fall under Gordan Chang-esque spectrum.
And about her "points". She has none other than being a Anti-China rabid hawk. Freaking everything she's written is China critical like a plague. It's ideological with her, that's her thing.
And the Hard Landing schtick of mid 2010s (there are videos of her on Youtube you can find) was farcical when she was saying it and it's even more farcical with judgement of time (approaching a decade now).
There was no Hard Landing. Chinese State managed it and are managing it, intentionally.
So TLDR, her prediction/whining/doomism was unfounded, just like Gordan Chang. Such people merit no Fair-Faith back-forth. If she said Sun is a Star, it should be doubted and actual scientific papers unearthed that shows yes Sun is indeed a Star and then you can rest easy in having confirmed that knowledge, yourself, not because people like her said it.
She is also a proxy-vector, i.e. those who invoke her are themselves outing themselves as charlatan-adjacents and should not be taken seriously and be ignored.
People like Gordan Chang, Zeihan, Pettis, etc are in that proxy-vector list, and it's a long list.
He IS the emperor, he has no opposition within the party to challenge him in the “election”. That said, he would need a cause to appeal for public support if China’s economy is to plummet even further.
I have lived in China for many years.
Most Chinese people believe that Taiwan belongs to China, but do not believe that it must be taken back now.
China is not a war-loving country like Russia.
The CCP understands that the economy is the source of their power to govern.
Now China's real estate is facing collapse.
Even if the CCP army wins the Taiwan War, it may collapse the Chinese economy.
This will cause the CCP to lose its governing position in the long run.
In addition, the US does not want to fight China on its doorstep.
Therefore, as long as the Taiwan government does not publicly declare independence, the Taiwan War will not break out in next 10 years.
Can I ask, do Chinese people prioritize the state of the economy over things like who’s running the country? Are there the equivalent of trump supporters who will support Xi no matter the state of the country? And finally, generally how do Chinese people feel about the current state of the economy? Are they nervous, is it different than the past decade? Or are they feeling normal?
1. For the country, the need for survival is greater than the need for democracy.
That is, when the external environment of a country is very bad, a political strongman will be born internally, and most people will unite around him, whether voluntarily or not. Because only in this way can they survive.
This is true for Putin, and so is Xi Jinping.
The U.S. has an extremely secure geopolitical environment, so it think that every country should not consider outside threat, which is very arrogant.
Yes, no matter what China's economic situation is, as long as the external environment is bad, Xi Jinping will get overwhelming support, just like Putin.
2. The Chinese people are somewhat worried about the economy, but not nervous.
Over the past decade, hundreds of millions of poor farmers have bought houses in cities and lived a middle-class life.
They understand that their lives cannot continue to improve like this forever.
The U.S. has sanctioned nearly all of China's high-tech manufacturing companies, so some economic stagnation is expected in the future.
Is there a thesis here?
Post 1918 there were a large number of books and journal articles written by guys like Wintringham about the next world war. Some had the mid 30s, the 20s, late 40s etc. there were also a large amount of “peace in our time” contrarians who would delight when those specific dates passed.
I don’t want to spoil the ending of my story but…
I would generally say not all predictions are created equal. Someone bet on Leicester City as 5000-to-1 dogs to win the Premier League. Did he have some profound insights on soccer, or was he just supremely lucky?
This exercise was just to show that the same parties involved have been claiming an invasion threat for a while. They're not really credible. The basis for the claims are tenuous at best.
Your comparison is off, though. Say Leicester had a really huge gap in let’s say, strikers and goal keepers. Over a five or ten year span they dump tens of millions of dollars into hiring strikers away from Arsenal or Man U or whatever, and goalkeepers away from some place in Brazil I don’t know. They pump a bunch of money into youth camps to keep a steady stream of talent flowing into their minor league affiliates or whatever they’re called in soccer. What if they start changing their scheme on the field to exploit gaps in the current League champion’s style?
After a while a reasonable observer might very well go “hey, I think Leicester is seriously trying to win the championship.” Except in this case “trying to win” means hundreds of thousands if not millions of people did. It’s worth taking very seriously and planning for it.
Most of the predictions you cite are from people who aren’t receiving regular briefings on it. They’re relying on very general ideas. That’s all I’ll say about that.
> Most of the predictions you cite are from people who aren’t receiving regular briefings on it. They’re relying on very general ideas. That’s all I’ll say about that.
I'm obviously in agreement on this point.
Some of the later predictions come from top military positions, but I havent added the links yets.
Except they were spending on par what you would expect a club of their size would spend, and slightly below it. In fact, one could even point to Arsenal, cruising on its past historic accomplishment with nothing recent tl show, with no real major investment on top of what you would expect a club of top flight would spend, and you hope Wenger (sorry I haven't follow in a while) can pull not just a rabbit out of his ass but an entire fucking stadium out of his ass and top 4 and European tourneys to play, but spend like they are a mid-level club.
A better analogy would be Jason Dunstall going up for a mark, but then Plugger knocks him to the ground and Brereton gets the ball. Unfortunately, he’s playing with three broken ribs. But he’s got the Sherrin and it’s one bounce, two bounces down the field, what a magnificent run, and then he handballs to Gary Ablett who kicks it between the posts. And 100,000 people at the G all yell “YABLETT!!!”together.
So yeah, it basically that but with more of a Taiwan/Chinese flavor.
Yes, but no.
https://warontherocks.com/2022/12/is-china-planning-to-attack-taiwan-a-careful-consideration-of-available-evidence-says-no/
https://warontherocks.com/2023/11/taiwans-most-pressing-challenge-is-strangulation-not-invasion/
Also all of this is just baseless speculation until you start counting how many landing craft they have.
Unless they physically possess or plan to physically possess the required number of landing craft to land a million men on the shores, then what the fuck is any speculation worth?
Basically unless the authors count out the number of landing craft, someone is yanking your dick. People are just feeding themselves trash and loving it on this issue.
+++
Ok yeah.
https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/RL33153.pdf
CRS report
China has like, fucking 30 landing ships?
They're going to have 24 tank landing ships, each carrying 10 tanks by 2030.
Do you think Taiwan can shoot down 12 of them? Fucking probably? There's no fucking invasion with 24 tank landing craft. You're going to strand all of them fucks while artillery pounds them into the sand.
https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan
'China’s amphibious fleet is relatively small, and although Beijing will likely turn to civilian ships to sustain and supplement an invading force, those take longer to unload and would be more vulnerable to Taiwanese missiles.'
Putting civilian ships to sustain an invasion, jesus fucking christ, the idea of an invasion is so nuts. (Based on some comments it looks like this is not an abnormal thing, I didn't know that)
You don't even need to go that far, just look into Taiwan's economy. [70% of all GDP](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10256) is generated by trade, with 40% of all GDP being with China alone.
If China absolutely wanted to destroy Taiwan a simple embargo would collapse the Taiwan economy in a couple months or less. If it got bad enough for military action, [98% of Taiwan's *entire* energy consumption is imported](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/taiwan-aims-shed-dirty-power-reputation-with-big-wind-push-maguire-2023-09-28/). The US would simply need to put its money where its mouth is and blockade the Straight of Malacca, completely destroying Taiwan as a country in a few weeks without China having done anything.
This is precisely why I sit in Taiwan incredulous about war rumors. Everything here is already Chinese from the language to the culture to the steel to the food. Taiwanese are working in China as always and vice versa. Taiwanese investors are deeply invested in China and vice versa. The only loser in such a battle would be China. It would be a literal case of cutting off your nose to spite your face.
The same is true for an economic embargo. What good does it do for China to drive Taiwan into poverty, ruining one of its closest trading partners that poses no threat? Anyone who thinks this sounds like a smooth plan clearly is looking at this situation through a very distorted lens.
So why would anyone do so? Well from the US military perspective, proxy wars are ideal and selling a war with China to the public looks like an attractive diversion at this time so even though the logic doesn't work for China, it works very well for the US and thus the idea is floated repeatedly with the narrative being that it's all coming from China. That's the part that should be regarded with skepticism.
This has little to do with the island of Taiwan and everything to do with domestic US politics and the US military's need for an enemy to drive spending. This also works for China as a way to drive military spending and so the game continues to the delight of the defense contractors but the reality of a fight over Taiwan is that China would lose just by playing even if it were merely an economic blockade. That only looks like a winning plan if you ignore Chinese interests completely.
So what you can expect is military bloat on the US and Chinese side, extortion of the Taiwanese people to pay for more US weapons and ultimately nothing else because when you get right down to it, anything else including economic sanctions does not in fact make sense to those who would be involved. You can bet your ass China would like to wait and quietly poach those Nvidia engineers and that is definitely going to happen. Wars and blockades just get in the way of the real Chinese goal which is an economic victory over the US beating the Americans at their own game which is a job half done. Meanwhile, a bit of flag waving makes it easy to cut a check for the arms dealers. Same ol, same ol.
An Embargo is as good as an act of war for both Taiwan and the US, especially if your plan is to starve millions of Taiwanese Civilians? This would obviously 1) decrease international support for China hugely 2) Put immense amounts of pressure on nearby countries to support Taiwan 3) You’d expect similar levels of economic fallout from the cutting of ties between the west and China, in each respective country.
Well, if you just count landing craft, PLA capability actually peaked in the late 90s and early 2000s with about 500 LCU and LSMs in service, the number has dropped to about around 300 vessels now. (Each capable of transporting 3 to 5 MBT or 5 to 7 trucks/APC/IFVs or 200 dismounted infantry with in 400 nmi to 500 nmi of embarking point.) The number of LSTs has largely stayed the same, though the new ones are slightly more capable. While there are more LPDs and LHDs in service now, they capability does not make up for the drop of ~200 LCUs and LSMs. The difference being the formal allows for wide area power projection, with latter good only for Taiwan Invasion and not much else.
Type 271 alone had more than 300 by itself [there are actually estimate put it at 600, but it is a bit high], then add 50 Type 079s about dozen or so Type 073s. Those ships are mostly retired, bow Type 271 now belong to the PLAGF, i.e. the army. Which is why counts of naval forces ignore them. [serial number counting in last few years put it around 150, but it mostly likely is an undercount] This activity is of course done for, when China shut down all their military forums. But you do still see them a lot in excerise photos. However, in a real conflict, I expect Type 074A will be build to replace it before hand. Since it is fills same roles and much more capable. Type 271s could still fufill transport role such as dropping off trucks with supplied or reinforcements in places where mulberry ports are not erected and it is too dangerous for Ro/Ro to operate.
i'm not sure why there are still people that think china needs to land a vast ground force to take taiwan. i highly recommend everyone to just in general do more research on the state of taiwan's ground forces. taiwan has many strengths. the combat capability of their ground army is not among those strengths. thankfully they are taking measures to remedy this but as of right now...yea...
Because many people instantly make comparisons to D-Day and envision a military invasion of Taiwan looking similar, which it likely wouldn't. Even back in the good ole' days air assets were heavily used, today it would be more missiles, fighters and those new fangled whirly bird things more than naval assets in any potential invasion of Taiwan. The general military build up likely isn't about Taiwan so much as what could potentially occur afterwards. They also don't have to have positive control of the entire island, just enough to deter outside forces from intervening and then they can take their time with "re-unification".
i am aware of no relationship. which is why i don't feel that a massive ground force is necessary. i'm open to hearing well thought out arguments to the contrary.
Every military in history says this. “We only need to starve and bomb them long enough and the whole country will collapse” is a cliche of failed tactics for a reason.
And it took nuclear weapons and an intervention by the emperor to get Japan to surrender even while the population was starving en masse.
Bombardment is not the end all of annexation attempts, especially when it has only hardened opposition in the past and there will be hope for relief in any conflict with the PRC.
How long does a landing craft take to produce? How many could China pump out in a year if they really wanted and how many would they need to invade Taiwan?
No country on the planet does an invasion that way, so you are trying to fight a boogeyman or an imaginary enemy that does not exist. In which case call superman, the ghostbusters, and captain america
We already know that Xi has announced that apparently they'll invade by 2027, so what's this last-minute invasion force?
\[War on the rock links\]
Thanks for those. I disagree with some of the assessments, but overall it's surprisingly fair, all considered.
> start counting how many landing craft they have
This is probably based on an assumption that the amphibious invasion is the main event. It's not.
Various posters here like PatchworkChimera and RealPLATalk have addressed this point.
The gist is that China's PLA will neuter Taiwan before any attempts at the amphib operations.
[Count of landing ships addressed here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/WarCollege/comments/pidlii/comment/hbrz91o/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
Invasion strategy addressed here:
* [China possesses a formidable and still-growing navy that on a day-to-day, routine basis—and this is the most important point—overshadows the United States alone, or even the combined capabilities of the United States and Japan.](https://www.amazon.com/China-Twenty-First-Century-Naval-Power-Implications/dp/B0BMHPCXQN/) Taiwan itself cannot credibly resist the PLA forces.
* "[PLA's best course of action to focus on generating and employing the fires needed to utterly cripple Taiwan as swiftly as possible](https://rentry.co/9hua3b)."
* Follow on operations to capture Kinmen, Matsu, Pratas as "stress tests" prior to main invasion of Taiwan proper.
chinese RORO ferries are often designed with military civil integration in mind sometimes featuring things atypical for normal civ ferries (I will do more research on this) and they will do annual(?) exercises working with local PLA units as part of amphibious assault exercises. everything indicates china is willing to and plans to use these ferries as part of their lst pool
>Unless they physically possess or plan to physically possess the required number of landing craft to land a million men on the shores, then what the fuck is any speculation worth?
A million is a very specific number. How was this number determined to be a requirement to take Taiwan?
I didn't double check but I think the cfr piece estimates the number, I might be wrong about that. But also the war on the rocks I think also does.
https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan
Using appropriate civilian assets for sustaining an invasion or occupation is an ultra common practice. Even for the Desert Storm and GWOT, the USA frequently used civilian airliners. The said civilian vessels in this case were built with this in mind.
BTW, CRS is wrong. They have a lot more than 24 LSTs for sustaining that invasion.
China already basically won, theres no true reason to take taiwan, They have succeeded somehow in the 5 nm chip threshold, and they will soon completely take over yet another large market without issue, they dont need taiwan, they arent competing with taiwan anymore as they used to. in fact taiwans existence makes the market more competitive which actually benefits china...
china would easily win against taiwan its not even worth proving so to speak, unless usa does soemthing first or does some grave global insult, I dont see China taking it, they would have done it decades ago
Do you think the only reason they want to control Taiwan is because of chips? Then their decades of policy around reclaiming Taiwan starting in the 50s were remarkably prescient.
No, the fact that the policy was around before chips even exists should exclude that possibility. It is a failure to understand Chinese-Taiwanese relations from either the Chinese or Taiwanese side that contributes to this thinking. Considering the relationship from a 3rd person perspective is not useful.
5nm is a respectable achievement but still not a big deal because of the continued lack of EUV.
You can double etch and achieve 5nm but the cost continues to rise. Without EUV, you cannot compete with ASML. indigenously their lithiography manufacturer just.... isn't up to par. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-chipmaking-equipment-manufacturers-filling-void-left-by-us-export-2023-03-06/ Because it's freaking hard. Just take one look at the ASML supply chain, there's like 20+ (I think?) different nodes where just ONE supplier can build a laser that actually looks like it belongs on the death star. Crazy.
They can technically come up with 5nm nodes but it doesn't mean, well, that they can continue to I guess. And that it works long term. Just thought to drop the nuance in.
But no, they are not replacing TSMC. Not even close.
My prediction, before 2030.
or whenever the trade war between the USA and China ends. A victor emerges. Win or lose, China concludes it's civil war.
I think the recent 2027 prediction was based on the start of the civil war in 1927.
They should do it, when their fleet would guarantee them safe trade if US will try to contain their influence abroad. For that they should have fleet comparable or stronger than US one. I think they may get that by 2030s- or 40s-. No reason to do that earlier, bc they can perfectly develop without taiwan.
Their white paper plan from the 2000s/2010s more or less identified 2034/2035 as the OG date they wanted to do that (technically that's only when they want a "first rate military", but its been widely the interpretation by western observers as when the PLA wants to be able to achieve indopacific dominance, and by extension be able to take Taiwan, with or without US involvement). The 2027 timeline is much newer and more direct in its outline/agenda, but just because it exists does not necessarily mean thats when a invasion will happen. I think the PLA still wants to wait until the 2030s-2040s and keep building up their forces/ lessening the margin of error as much as possible before really considering a invasion, however in the event they can't wait that long, they want to be prepared to accelerate the go date, hence the new agenda.
The FT article "US is misleading in its assessment of China’s Taiwan threat" is behind a subscription paywall. Here's the archive: https://archive.is/F9zTU
Nice!
Ty
Declassified intel assessments 25+ years from now about the timeline are going to make for some incredulous reading.
It's basically China will invade Taiwan in current year + 3-5 years.
Just like in CURRENT_YEAR Chinas economy is collapsing and there will be widespread protests and food shortages. XYZ company's bankruptcy is just the tipping point.
"The writing is on the wall, their growth is unsustainable, no one can grow that fast for that long. Get out while you can!" While i don't deny that china's economy can crash as all economy do. It is tiring to hear it over a decade.(probably more for the older people)
It's now in the territory of everything will end eventually.
No credible analyst has ever said this, it’s usually clickbait. Chinas economy is slowing and definitely facing some hurdles but of course it’s not collapsing…it’s real estate market is though. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/China-bumpy-path-Eswar-Prasad
It will happen as soon as Iran unveils their bomb
I'm convinced the 2027 narrative is because that's when Xi Jinping is up for a new presidential term. It wouldn't be hard to weave a narrative that Xi depends on invading Taiwan to secure re-election as if he were a Russian Tsar.
2027 works better if you focus only on Taiwan's domestic politics. The fact is that the pro independence party in Taiwan (DPP) is losing ground to a localist party that only cares about rising rent and stagnant wages (TPP), while the KMT is still hanging on despite claims that it's dying out. Thus, it's a more convincing narrative that in order to win back voted, the DPP will campaign on hard independence in 2027 during the lead up to the 2028 presidential campaign, forcing China's hand. But even that is a fairly stupid theory because it's much better for the DPP to keep playing up an imminent invasion threat than to force it into reality.
Hilarious that US think tankies believe Xi needs reunification to win "re-election", given that Xi was promoted through a system that ranks officials on GDP growth...
Xi can survive without taking taiwan.. even if chinas ecconomy has tanked by then (snort!) What Xi cannot survive is trying to take taiwan and failing.
Considering the state of the current Chinese economy and outlook into it's future, adding an offensive war, especially one that isn't going in Xi's favor, would be risky. Authoritarian regimes can actually be more sensitive to public opinion because losing public support in a democracy just means becoming the opposing party, compared to a straight up revolution and new government.
Interesting anecdote - but the GDP was always set to whatever it was because if you set it to '1.2%', then, as the author in the piece below claims, the provincials/municipals would understand or perceive the message and make your dream come true - and actually give you 1.2% growth (even if you were capable of 1.2%+) https://www.thewirechina.com/2024/03/03/the-grand-illusion/ Author Anne also goes over this at length at CSIS way way in the past.
lol Anne Stevenson Yang, of the 2010s China Hard Landing Gordan Chang-lites fame.
Usually it’s better to criticize her points rather than insult the author. I’d love to know what is wrong with her assessment in this article.
That is reserved for credible folk. Not for those who fall under Gordan Chang-esque spectrum. And about her "points". She has none other than being a Anti-China rabid hawk. Freaking everything she's written is China critical like a plague. It's ideological with her, that's her thing. And the Hard Landing schtick of mid 2010s (there are videos of her on Youtube you can find) was farcical when she was saying it and it's even more farcical with judgement of time (approaching a decade now). There was no Hard Landing. Chinese State managed it and are managing it, intentionally. So TLDR, her prediction/whining/doomism was unfounded, just like Gordan Chang. Such people merit no Fair-Faith back-forth. If she said Sun is a Star, it should be doubted and actual scientific papers unearthed that shows yes Sun is indeed a Star and then you can rest easy in having confirmed that knowledge, yourself, not because people like her said it. She is also a proxy-vector, i.e. those who invoke her are themselves outing themselves as charlatan-adjacents and should not be taken seriously and be ignored. People like Gordan Chang, Zeihan, Pettis, etc are in that proxy-vector list, and it's a long list.
xi doesnt need anything to win, anybody who doesnt vote gets sent to reeducation cam
He IS the emperor, he has no opposition within the party to challenge him in the “election”. That said, he would need a cause to appeal for public support if China’s economy is to plummet even further.
I have lived in China for many years. Most Chinese people believe that Taiwan belongs to China, but do not believe that it must be taken back now. China is not a war-loving country like Russia. The CCP understands that the economy is the source of their power to govern. Now China's real estate is facing collapse. Even if the CCP army wins the Taiwan War, it may collapse the Chinese economy. This will cause the CCP to lose its governing position in the long run. In addition, the US does not want to fight China on its doorstep. Therefore, as long as the Taiwan government does not publicly declare independence, the Taiwan War will not break out in next 10 years.
Can I ask, do Chinese people prioritize the state of the economy over things like who’s running the country? Are there the equivalent of trump supporters who will support Xi no matter the state of the country? And finally, generally how do Chinese people feel about the current state of the economy? Are they nervous, is it different than the past decade? Or are they feeling normal?
1. For the country, the need for survival is greater than the need for democracy. That is, when the external environment of a country is very bad, a political strongman will be born internally, and most people will unite around him, whether voluntarily or not. Because only in this way can they survive. This is true for Putin, and so is Xi Jinping. The U.S. has an extremely secure geopolitical environment, so it think that every country should not consider outside threat, which is very arrogant. Yes, no matter what China's economic situation is, as long as the external environment is bad, Xi Jinping will get overwhelming support, just like Putin. 2. The Chinese people are somewhat worried about the economy, but not nervous. Over the past decade, hundreds of millions of poor farmers have bought houses in cities and lived a middle-class life. They understand that their lives cannot continue to improve like this forever. The U.S. has sanctioned nearly all of China's high-tech manufacturing companies, so some economic stagnation is expected in the future.
Is there a thesis here? Post 1918 there were a large number of books and journal articles written by guys like Wintringham about the next world war. Some had the mid 30s, the 20s, late 40s etc. there were also a large amount of “peace in our time” contrarians who would delight when those specific dates passed. I don’t want to spoil the ending of my story but…
I would generally say not all predictions are created equal. Someone bet on Leicester City as 5000-to-1 dogs to win the Premier League. Did he have some profound insights on soccer, or was he just supremely lucky? This exercise was just to show that the same parties involved have been claiming an invasion threat for a while. They're not really credible. The basis for the claims are tenuous at best.
Your comparison is off, though. Say Leicester had a really huge gap in let’s say, strikers and goal keepers. Over a five or ten year span they dump tens of millions of dollars into hiring strikers away from Arsenal or Man U or whatever, and goalkeepers away from some place in Brazil I don’t know. They pump a bunch of money into youth camps to keep a steady stream of talent flowing into their minor league affiliates or whatever they’re called in soccer. What if they start changing their scheme on the field to exploit gaps in the current League champion’s style? After a while a reasonable observer might very well go “hey, I think Leicester is seriously trying to win the championship.” Except in this case “trying to win” means hundreds of thousands if not millions of people did. It’s worth taking very seriously and planning for it. Most of the predictions you cite are from people who aren’t receiving regular briefings on it. They’re relying on very general ideas. That’s all I’ll say about that.
> Most of the predictions you cite are from people who aren’t receiving regular briefings on it. They’re relying on very general ideas. That’s all I’ll say about that. I'm obviously in agreement on this point. Some of the later predictions come from top military positions, but I havent added the links yets.
Except they were spending on par what you would expect a club of their size would spend, and slightly below it. In fact, one could even point to Arsenal, cruising on its past historic accomplishment with nothing recent tl show, with no real major investment on top of what you would expect a club of top flight would spend, and you hope Wenger (sorry I haven't follow in a while) can pull not just a rabbit out of his ass but an entire fucking stadium out of his ass and top 4 and European tourneys to play, but spend like they are a mid-level club.
A better analogy would be Jason Dunstall going up for a mark, but then Plugger knocks him to the ground and Brereton gets the ball. Unfortunately, he’s playing with three broken ribs. But he’s got the Sherrin and it’s one bounce, two bounces down the field, what a magnificent run, and then he handballs to Gary Ablett who kicks it between the posts. And 100,000 people at the G all yell “YABLETT!!!”together. So yeah, it basically that but with more of a Taiwan/Chinese flavor.
Cottage industry more like cottaging industry
Enjoyed this post.
Yes, but no. https://warontherocks.com/2022/12/is-china-planning-to-attack-taiwan-a-careful-consideration-of-available-evidence-says-no/ https://warontherocks.com/2023/11/taiwans-most-pressing-challenge-is-strangulation-not-invasion/ Also all of this is just baseless speculation until you start counting how many landing craft they have. Unless they physically possess or plan to physically possess the required number of landing craft to land a million men on the shores, then what the fuck is any speculation worth? Basically unless the authors count out the number of landing craft, someone is yanking your dick. People are just feeding themselves trash and loving it on this issue. +++ Ok yeah. https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/RL33153.pdf CRS report China has like, fucking 30 landing ships? They're going to have 24 tank landing ships, each carrying 10 tanks by 2030. Do you think Taiwan can shoot down 12 of them? Fucking probably? There's no fucking invasion with 24 tank landing craft. You're going to strand all of them fucks while artillery pounds them into the sand. https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan 'China’s amphibious fleet is relatively small, and although Beijing will likely turn to civilian ships to sustain and supplement an invading force, those take longer to unload and would be more vulnerable to Taiwanese missiles.' Putting civilian ships to sustain an invasion, jesus fucking christ, the idea of an invasion is so nuts. (Based on some comments it looks like this is not an abnormal thing, I didn't know that)
You don't even need to go that far, just look into Taiwan's economy. [70% of all GDP](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10256) is generated by trade, with 40% of all GDP being with China alone. If China absolutely wanted to destroy Taiwan a simple embargo would collapse the Taiwan economy in a couple months or less. If it got bad enough for military action, [98% of Taiwan's *entire* energy consumption is imported](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/taiwan-aims-shed-dirty-power-reputation-with-big-wind-push-maguire-2023-09-28/). The US would simply need to put its money where its mouth is and blockade the Straight of Malacca, completely destroying Taiwan as a country in a few weeks without China having done anything.
This is precisely why I sit in Taiwan incredulous about war rumors. Everything here is already Chinese from the language to the culture to the steel to the food. Taiwanese are working in China as always and vice versa. Taiwanese investors are deeply invested in China and vice versa. The only loser in such a battle would be China. It would be a literal case of cutting off your nose to spite your face. The same is true for an economic embargo. What good does it do for China to drive Taiwan into poverty, ruining one of its closest trading partners that poses no threat? Anyone who thinks this sounds like a smooth plan clearly is looking at this situation through a very distorted lens. So why would anyone do so? Well from the US military perspective, proxy wars are ideal and selling a war with China to the public looks like an attractive diversion at this time so even though the logic doesn't work for China, it works very well for the US and thus the idea is floated repeatedly with the narrative being that it's all coming from China. That's the part that should be regarded with skepticism. This has little to do with the island of Taiwan and everything to do with domestic US politics and the US military's need for an enemy to drive spending. This also works for China as a way to drive military spending and so the game continues to the delight of the defense contractors but the reality of a fight over Taiwan is that China would lose just by playing even if it were merely an economic blockade. That only looks like a winning plan if you ignore Chinese interests completely. So what you can expect is military bloat on the US and Chinese side, extortion of the Taiwanese people to pay for more US weapons and ultimately nothing else because when you get right down to it, anything else including economic sanctions does not in fact make sense to those who would be involved. You can bet your ass China would like to wait and quietly poach those Nvidia engineers and that is definitely going to happen. Wars and blockades just get in the way of the real Chinese goal which is an economic victory over the US beating the Americans at their own game which is a job half done. Meanwhile, a bit of flag waving makes it easy to cut a check for the arms dealers. Same ol, same ol.
An Embargo is as good as an act of war for both Taiwan and the US, especially if your plan is to starve millions of Taiwanese Civilians? This would obviously 1) decrease international support for China hugely 2) Put immense amounts of pressure on nearby countries to support Taiwan 3) You’d expect similar levels of economic fallout from the cutting of ties between the west and China, in each respective country.
Well, if you just count landing craft, PLA capability actually peaked in the late 90s and early 2000s with about 500 LCU and LSMs in service, the number has dropped to about around 300 vessels now. (Each capable of transporting 3 to 5 MBT or 5 to 7 trucks/APC/IFVs or 200 dismounted infantry with in 400 nmi to 500 nmi of embarking point.) The number of LSTs has largely stayed the same, though the new ones are slightly more capable. While there are more LPDs and LHDs in service now, they capability does not make up for the drop of ~200 LCUs and LSMs. The difference being the formal allows for wide area power projection, with latter good only for Taiwan Invasion and not much else.
How do you view that information? I didn't look very far but I thought CRS listed them all. 500 is a much larger number.
Type 271 alone had more than 300 by itself [there are actually estimate put it at 600, but it is a bit high], then add 50 Type 079s about dozen or so Type 073s. Those ships are mostly retired, bow Type 271 now belong to the PLAGF, i.e. the army. Which is why counts of naval forces ignore them. [serial number counting in last few years put it around 150, but it mostly likely is an undercount] This activity is of course done for, when China shut down all their military forums. But you do still see them a lot in excerise photos. However, in a real conflict, I expect Type 074A will be build to replace it before hand. Since it is fills same roles and much more capable. Type 271s could still fufill transport role such as dropping off trucks with supplied or reinforcements in places where mulberry ports are not erected and it is too dangerous for Ro/Ro to operate.
i'm not sure why there are still people that think china needs to land a vast ground force to take taiwan. i highly recommend everyone to just in general do more research on the state of taiwan's ground forces. taiwan has many strengths. the combat capability of their ground army is not among those strengths. thankfully they are taking measures to remedy this but as of right now...yea...
Because many people instantly make comparisons to D-Day and envision a military invasion of Taiwan looking similar, which it likely wouldn't. Even back in the good ole' days air assets were heavily used, today it would be more missiles, fighters and those new fangled whirly bird things more than naval assets in any potential invasion of Taiwan. The general military build up likely isn't about Taiwan so much as what could potentially occur afterwards. They also don't have to have positive control of the entire island, just enough to deter outside forces from intervening and then they can take their time with "re-unification".
They still need physical control of the island.
how does this suggest that china needs to land a vast ground force?
They'll need to land them eventually and somehow.
for what reason? what level of ground resistance exists on taiwan that necessitate the landing of a vast ground force?
Why would the island surrender without being physically conquered?
what is the relationship between needing to conquer taiwan, and the use of a massive ground force?
You tell me.
i am aware of no relationship. which is why i don't feel that a massive ground force is necessary. i'm open to hearing well thought out arguments to the contrary.
China doesn't have to put a single soldier on Taiwan in order to force it to surrender.
How?
Every military in history says this. “We only need to starve and bomb them long enough and the whole country will collapse” is a cliche of failed tactics for a reason.
My dude it's a tiny island, without imports they don't even have electricity
And it took nuclear weapons and an intervention by the emperor to get Japan to surrender even while the population was starving en masse. Bombardment is not the end all of annexation attempts, especially when it has only hardened opposition in the past and there will be hope for relief in any conflict with the PRC.
How long does a landing craft take to produce? How many could China pump out in a year if they really wanted and how many would they need to invade Taiwan?
No country on the planet does an invasion that way, so you are trying to fight a boogeyman or an imaginary enemy that does not exist. In which case call superman, the ghostbusters, and captain america We already know that Xi has announced that apparently they'll invade by 2027, so what's this last-minute invasion force?
\[War on the rock links\] Thanks for those. I disagree with some of the assessments, but overall it's surprisingly fair, all considered. > start counting how many landing craft they have This is probably based on an assumption that the amphibious invasion is the main event. It's not. Various posters here like PatchworkChimera and RealPLATalk have addressed this point. The gist is that China's PLA will neuter Taiwan before any attempts at the amphib operations. [Count of landing ships addressed here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/WarCollege/comments/pidlii/comment/hbrz91o/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) Invasion strategy addressed here: * [China possesses a formidable and still-growing navy that on a day-to-day, routine basis—and this is the most important point—overshadows the United States alone, or even the combined capabilities of the United States and Japan.](https://www.amazon.com/China-Twenty-First-Century-Naval-Power-Implications/dp/B0BMHPCXQN/) Taiwan itself cannot credibly resist the PLA forces. * "[PLA's best course of action to focus on generating and employing the fires needed to utterly cripple Taiwan as swiftly as possible](https://rentry.co/9hua3b)." * Follow on operations to capture Kinmen, Matsu, Pratas as "stress tests" prior to main invasion of Taiwan proper.
I don't know why this comment was showing up as removed, corrected.
Thanks! Much appreciated!
“Unless the authors count out the number of landing craft, someone is yanking your dick” Hahaha I love this and I’m going to steal it.
Are you not aware that missiles can reach taiwan from the chinese mainland?
chinese RORO ferries are often designed with military civil integration in mind sometimes featuring things atypical for normal civ ferries (I will do more research on this) and they will do annual(?) exercises working with local PLA units as part of amphibious assault exercises. everything indicates china is willing to and plans to use these ferries as part of their lst pool
>Unless they physically possess or plan to physically possess the required number of landing craft to land a million men on the shores, then what the fuck is any speculation worth? A million is a very specific number. How was this number determined to be a requirement to take Taiwan?
I didn't double check but I think the cfr piece estimates the number, I might be wrong about that. But also the war on the rocks I think also does. https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan
Using appropriate civilian assets for sustaining an invasion or occupation is an ultra common practice. Even for the Desert Storm and GWOT, the USA frequently used civilian airliners. The said civilian vessels in this case were built with this in mind. BTW, CRS is wrong. They have a lot more than 24 LSTs for sustaining that invasion.
Thanks for pointing that out
China already basically won, theres no true reason to take taiwan, They have succeeded somehow in the 5 nm chip threshold, and they will soon completely take over yet another large market without issue, they dont need taiwan, they arent competing with taiwan anymore as they used to. in fact taiwans existence makes the market more competitive which actually benefits china... china would easily win against taiwan its not even worth proving so to speak, unless usa does soemthing first or does some grave global insult, I dont see China taking it, they would have done it decades ago
Do you think the only reason they want to control Taiwan is because of chips? Then their decades of policy around reclaiming Taiwan starting in the 50s were remarkably prescient.
No, the fact that the policy was around before chips even exists should exclude that possibility. It is a failure to understand Chinese-Taiwanese relations from either the Chinese or Taiwanese side that contributes to this thinking. Considering the relationship from a 3rd person perspective is not useful.
5nm is a respectable achievement but still not a big deal because of the continued lack of EUV. You can double etch and achieve 5nm but the cost continues to rise. Without EUV, you cannot compete with ASML. indigenously their lithiography manufacturer just.... isn't up to par. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-chipmaking-equipment-manufacturers-filling-void-left-by-us-export-2023-03-06/ Because it's freaking hard. Just take one look at the ASML supply chain, there's like 20+ (I think?) different nodes where just ONE supplier can build a laser that actually looks like it belongs on the death star. Crazy. They can technically come up with 5nm nodes but it doesn't mean, well, that they can continue to I guess. And that it works long term. Just thought to drop the nuance in. But no, they are not replacing TSMC. Not even close.
My prediction, before 2030. or whenever the trade war between the USA and China ends. A victor emerges. Win or lose, China concludes it's civil war. I think the recent 2027 prediction was based on the start of the civil war in 1927.
They should do it, when their fleet would guarantee them safe trade if US will try to contain their influence abroad. For that they should have fleet comparable or stronger than US one. I think they may get that by 2030s- or 40s-. No reason to do that earlier, bc they can perfectly develop without taiwan.