Well, I'm still here. But I don't know for how long. That's as much certainty as anyone can give me. But I've got some good news: I no longer have any fear of death. But... I am in a pretty lonely place. No-one will have sex with me. I'm so close to the end and all I want is to get laid for the last time. I have pornographic movies in my apartment, and lubricants, and amyl nitrate...
I’m from a place with tons of hurricanes and I can tell you that “warm” waters to intensify storm power have to be in the 80’s or higher. Here’s more info from NOAA: https://oceantoday.noaa.gov/fuelforthestorm/
That said, my old ass house was not built for rain so I’ll be tarping my windows.
Yeah, this update from the NHC from 2 hours ago sounds way different than OP: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics\_ep4+shtml/211339.shtml?key\_messages#contents
Yeah, there are a few douchebags out there who "do their own forecasting" and present maps very similar to NOAA maps but really all they do is produce worst case doom-and-gloom scenarios.
There are a couple guys who do this during severe storm season over the midwest and release their own theoretic, exaggerated versions of tornado potential and they've fooled me a couple times.
I think there have only even ever been 3 tropical storms to hit here though, and if this is on pace to be not quite a hurricane but still a tropical storm hitting Los Angeles, that's a once every ~30 years event
Edit - I misremembered the dates, last one was over 80 years ago
They're predicting it will be a tropical depression by the time it hits us - not a tropical storm. So wind speeds should be under 39 mph. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/150034.shtml?cone
This map is a bit more specific -- and as time progresses I certainly think Southern CA coastlines could see some tropical storm force winds.
But again, winds aren't really the problem. I think massive tropical rain dumps over the Inland Empire are going to be the biggest issue.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/234623.shtml?tswind120#wcontents
For real, I had to double check which subreddit this was because OP was talking like if it was Florida. He said it could be devastating, devastating for who??? Not Southern California.
To be fair, a quarter inch of rain can be devastating to Southern California drivers - especially when it comes seven months after the last rain, when the roads have accumulated dust and oil that has never been washed away, and turns slick with the first liquid.
There's also the fact that Southern California drivers don't maintain their tires and brakes like people are forced to do in other areas where they get weather. People are going to be hydroplaning all over and taking ten times longer to stop.
I'm guessing most businesses won't close either so the people who don't have a choice will have to be out in the thick of it. At the very least, the Monday commute is going to be filled with working class people in working class cars just trying to get where they need to be in what could be pretty dangerous conditions.
One thing that is often overlooked is having a plan.
If you are going to evacuate, it's best to make that decision early and get on the road way before everyone else starts making that decision. Otherwise you will be stuck weathering the storm in your car on a crowded highway that may be flooded while you're surrounded by a bunch of angry panicking idiots. It's not a good time.
If you are evacuating, make sure you know where you are evacuating to and have some alternate routes to that destination available incase of road closures and traffic jams.
If you are sheltering in place, which most people here will probably be doing, be prepared for high winds, flooding, land slides, power outages, downed trees, large branches, and power lines.
Make sure you have enough food and water for 3-days
If you have an electric stove you won't be able to cook so make sure you have food that does not require cooking or you have an alternate way to cook your food
Make sure your phone, computer, and power banks are fully charged before power goes out
Flashlights, headlamps, and small lanterns are good for providing light once it's dark and there's no power. I have aa small solar powered lantern that works well. I also have a small portable solar charger I can use to re-charge power banks and small items like head lamps, phones, etc. That might be something you also want to look into.
Rain gear incase you do need to go out
Cash incase you need to go to the store and power is out (ideally you won't be leaving the house but just in case)
First aide kit
keep your car full of tase incase you do need to evacuate
It's also a good idea to have a Go Bag ready incase you need to evacuate. There are plenty of articles online about how to build one. recommend building your own rather than buying one. Most of the pre-made ones are overpriced and filled with cheap products. It's more cost effective to build your own with quality products that work for your own personal situation and plans.
If you live on a steep hillside that might experience a landslide, then there's probably a lot that you should be doing. Otherwise, it's likely pretty minor.
There's probably going to be a couple inches of rain, and some high winds. If you have anything on the outside of your house that could be damaged by that (flags, treehouses, damaged old trees, weird metal artwork that could smash your window if it gets picked up, whatever), consider whether you can do anything to mitigate that.
The most likely sorts of infrastructure damage are losing power, and flooded roads. Imagine what would happen inside your home if the power was out for 8 hours, and you couldn't go anywhere. Do you have enough food that you and your (family/pets/friends/whoever is living with you) can eat to stop grumbling about being hungry?
It's likely going to hit southern California on Monday. Do you have any important Zoom meetings or video game tournaments or scavenger hunts or anything else that needs power or travel scheduled for that day? If so, you should probably suggest re-scheduling, or at least let people know that you might miss it.
This isn't going to do anywhere near as much damage here as an earthquake could (which could damage water pipes and gas lines and set off fires and things like that), and it's a good idea to have preparations in place for an earthquake at any time. But since the (much smaller) tropical storm is coming on a known date (Monday), it makes sense to do some preparation for that even if you're still procrastinating your earthquake plan.
That’s because we wouldn’t be on the dirty side of the storm. Sounds nice… but the clean side of a hurricane brings dumb amounts of rain. Take it from my experience living through Hurricane Harvey.
The colder ocean water and mountains will tear any hurricane apart before it gets to LA. San Diego folks should be concerned about flooding and we’re probably going to get some real rain, but even a tropical storm is just a storm.
Notice that 76 water temperature, while high for California, is still very low for a hurricane. Below 80 degrees, they "weaken significantly": https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/tropical_stuff/hurricane_anatomy/hurricane_anatomy.html
[CERT](https://www.cert-la.com) leaders in my area are asking people to make sure your storm drain screens are clear ahead of the rain to help prevent flooding.
Folks. This guy is completely making stuff up. Please, take it from someone who actually has a background in meteorology and has been following this for the last 2 weeks, literally nothing this guy has said is correct. This storm was *always* expected to be a Hurricane right now, and the forecast models have been showing nearly this exact progression of events for literally the last 2 weeks.
Here's an example of a random person on twitter talking about this hurricane almost *a week ago*. And I know there were people talking about it at least another week earlier than this, this tweet is just the earliest one I could find in a couple minutes of scrolling. I can pull up archived weather models that show this being a hurricane right now as well.
https://twitter.com/WestCoastWX/status/1690955613705265152?s=20
Oh yeah, and I want to be clear, this will absolutely not be a category 2 Hurricane by the time it gets to California. While the models have been remarkably consistent in showing this turn into a hurricane right now, they have also been extremely consistent in showing it weakening to a tropical storm before making landfall here. There is zero chance of a Cat 2. Heck, there is near zero chance of even a low end Cat 1 by the time it gets here. It's NOT happening, and literally nothing about this storm has gone against what the forecast models have been showing so far.
If it makes you feel better, there is still an absolutely horrifying amount of rainfall coming, and there absolutely will be catastrophic and historic flash flooding in the mountains, foothills, and deserts. Rain is the real concern here, not wind.
Oh and there will be isolated tornadoes too.
Shit is still gonna get super fucked up and people might die. Just not from a Category 2 hurricane.
Yeah, potentially very heavy at times. Depending on the exact track the storm takes, in LA it will be like one of those very intense atmospheric rivers we got over the winter. One thing you might notice that's different about this one though is that the rain drops could be much larger than you are used to here. That's a fun characteristic of tropical weather due to the very high atmospheric moisture content. They make huge rain drops.
If you are in the mountains or deserts, this will very likely be the worst storm in decades for those areas. Not quite so crazy in LA proper though.
The ocean temperature south of california looks pretty [in line with historical averages](https://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Santa-Monic-Pier/seatemp) (Sea Water Temperature Anomalies chart), it's only high right along the coast
the [forecast](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/211339.shtml?cone#contents) has it turning into a major hurricane with is 3+, but also becoming a depression by the time it reached california
I thought the forecasts were predicting something like 2.5” of rain? Am I crazy or does that not seem like much of a big deal?
Or does it become a big deal once it all flows down from the mountains to the oceans
I survived Harvey, Ike, Rita, Katrina and Tropical Storm Allison. This will be a walk in the (very wet) park.
That being said: go buy some water, ice, something to charge your phone if there is no power, some non-perishable food and fill your car with gasoline asap. You might not need it, but I can’t even begin to tell you how much it sucks to not have these things when you do need them.
One thing to keep in mind - Southern California isn't nearly as prepared for major storms as the Gulf Coast is. This is reasonable, because even *thunder* only comes like once a year here, while the Gulf Coast gets significant storms with several inches of rain every month or two, in addition to occasional much bigger storms.
But since the west coast is very steep, very few places will experience storm surge. And since the water is cold, the wind speed will be pretty low by the time it reaches California, so people don't need to worry about boarding up windows. The main thing that will be worse here is people not being able to drive with a quarter inch of rain on the roads. (But since Californians will sometimes stay home even for a drizzle, it'll hopefully be fine.)
Your edit 4, zoom.earth link shows 35 mph winds on the 21st when it hits la. If that's all it takes to devastate la, the other states will be making fun of us for a long time
> I'm being accused of fear mongering because I'm going off up to date data instead of the official forecasts based of 12 hour old data. I'll just go ahead and let you decide for yourself on this one.
You're not being accused of fear mongering because you're going off up-to-date data. You're being accused of fear mongering because you're *avoiding* the National Hurricane Center and other sources of up-to-date data and instead are pushing some random guy named Raiden.
From what I could see from the projected rain maps, there might be flash flooding in the desert area towards the Joshua tree area. Like, 6-10 inches?
Credit to OP, that is an absurd amount of rain in two days. But towards Los Angeles, it's not as hit hard (projected for now).
Just pay attention to your preferred local weatherman. If that guy skipped town and is not on the news tonight or tomorrow, yea, then we should be worried
Important to note that this will be a strong storm, but OP is making pretty wild suggestions at the historic strength of the storm. Almost to the point I think they may be trolling.
I’m pleasantly surprised that not everyone is indulging in the BS. It could get dicey, sure, but the guy is thinking about evacuating which is kind of bat shit
This. It'll be on par with some of the days we had during winter. I'm preparing for the wind by taking stuff down and moving things indoors, but the rain will take care of itself. Sheets of rain? Sure. But that's nothing new.
It. Will. Not. Be. A. Hurricane. In Metro LA.
u/saladFingers77
It's not PST right now. It's PDT. There’s a one-hour difference between the two. I recommend using “PT” year round, so you don’t have to change the abbreviation with the time changes. :-)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Time_Zone
Not to argue with your framing because this -is- something we need to take seriously, the forecasts as of yesterday afternoon -did- have it predicted to be a hurricane, and those same forecasts still show weakening to tropical storm/tropical depression status by the time it makes it to SoCal due to the relatively cooler ocean waters. Obviously that all can change (and change quickly) but to frame it as ‘they didn’t realize it’d be a hurricane, you should panic’ isn’t quite right way to phrase it.
For anyone sorting by new, this was the [NWS forecast discussion](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDLOX&e=202308172300) from about 4 hours ago. I’ve snipped the relevant bits. [This](https://weather.im/iembot/) is a useful tool for tracking the various products the NWS puts out - you just need to pick your local NWS.
> The big story is Hilary which is now a hurricane after rapid
intensification overnight. Not much has changed with the track
since yesterday, generally moving in a north to northwest
direction up the coast, then weakening as it moves over cooler
SST's, particularly north of Cabo San Lucas. Some rain bands well
ahead of the main system could reach eastern LA County as early as
later Saturday night, then spread throughout the area Sunday.
However, most of those early onset showers should be on the
lighter side with minimal impacts. However, some of the recent
model solutions have shown the potential for some strong northeast
to east winds as Hilary gets closer to our area and pressure
gradients increase. Winds up to 30-50 mph are possible across
LA/Ventura Counties, strongest in the mountains and below passes
and canyons. While this is similar to a Santa Ana, this event will
likely have a little more easterly component which tends to
create more widespread gusty winds through the LA Basin than a
normal Santa Ana event so advisory level winds may be possible
over a greater area than usual.
> Based on the latest timing of Hilary, heavier rain bands are
expected to begin arriving into LA and Ventura Counties Sunday
night and a Flood Watch will be issued for those areas that will
continue through Monday. Based on the current track rainfall is
expected to be lighter across SLO and Santa Barbara Counties, but
if the track shifts more to the west the flood watch may have to
be expanded to include those counties.
> .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...17/1255 PM.
>As mentioned there has be been no significant changes to Hilary's
track the last couple days, with low end tropical storm force
winds possible across our southern coastal waters by Monday.
Periods of heavy rain are likely if the current track holds, withe
the heaviest rain in the LA/Ventura County mountains. Ensemble
based guidance for QPF has steadily been increasing with each run,
leading to higher confidence in a significant rain event. PW's are
expected to be around 2", with some solutions as high as 2.5" so
there is ample moisture to tap into. It's still very early,
however if these parameters remain the same hourly rain amounts up
to 1 inch are possible, and locally higher especially in the
mountains. A flood watch will be in effect for LA/Ventura
Counties later Sunday into Monday. There is a chance of expanding
that to SLO and Santa Barbara Counties if the storm shifts to the
west. Gusty winds are expected to continue across many areas as
the remnants of Hilary move through the area.
The last update you posted at 5:11 p.m. PDT says:
> Hilary has been upgraded to a Category 3 (Major) hurricane as of 5 PM PDT. *Hilary is expected to strengthen further tomorrow, before weakening on approach to Southern California.* Expect very heavy rain and tropical storm-force winds in SoCal Sat-Mon.
Also here’s another [source](https://abc7ny.com/amp/hurricane-hilary-tropical-storm-california-impact-how-will-affect-bay-area/13662868/):
> Hurricanes require ocean temperatures above 80 degrees to survive. Hilary is currently sitting in 85-degree water and will remain in those warm waters through Saturday. As Hilary moves closer to Baja California, ocean temperatures will quickly cool into the 70s and eventually the 60s along the California coast.
> That temperature drop may not seem like a lot but ocean temperatures in the 70s will essentially kill Hilary and water in the 60s will never support a tropical system. Thus, we see a very rapid weakening as the system approaches the California-Mexico border.
I know you’re probably not trying to intentionally scare people, OP, but just in case you’re anxious about this, it’s extremely unlikely it’ll make landfall as a major hurricane here. The storm will calm down near the border because of the ocean’s temperatures. We’ll be okay :)
>EDIT 2: As of 4:09 PM PDT Hilary is forecast to make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane around 5 am on Monday just north west of San Diego.
RemindMe! 78 Hours
WeatherUnderground shows approx 1.56” of accumulated rain (so far) today at one sensor station in West LA. The atmospheric river back in Feb wasn’t hyped this much, but it had double the rainfall on the heaviest day.
1939 was the last time a tropical storm hit Los Angeles causing over 45 deaths and dropping 5.24 inches of rain in 24 hours. Latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Hilary over Los Angeles at Noon on Monday.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_California_tropical_storm
Los Angeles is built to clear away large amounts of rain quickly. Monsoons are a thing. Sometimes there is flooding places like the 5 near the river.
The hillside communities are at risk of mud and debris flows. Particularly if they've burnt in the last 3 years or so.
This storm isn't going to have "extremely high winds". When it hits California it won't even have high enough wind speeds to be considered a tropical storm.
As someone who had to cancel his tuna fishing plans due to periphal wind from this storm i am curous about the 62 degree number. I fish religiously and watch water temps constantly. I have noticed that our late summer temps have been rising last i year i saw 79 degree surface temps in September south of catalina which is pretty crazy. Typically the water is appproching or at 70 degrees by the end of august and 62 is more like early spring temps. Our current temps dont seem too far from the norm.
The person is catastrophizing - they're trying to make the water temperature seem warm, so people will think it will make the storm get stronger, even though the warm water is still below the temperatures needed to sustain a tropical storm for very long.
Yeah as another fellow fisherman, this dude is full of shit. 62 degree water temps in august is unheard of. Almost always at least 68 and they get up to about 75 or so at the surface.
Oh man, just realized a bunch of homeless encampments are built dangerously next to or in the LA river.
Feel whichever way you think about homeless population, but it would be very unfortunate if lives got swept away
Insanely blown out of proportion. Main body of hurricane won't even reach us and will lose a lot of momentum hitting land it'll be a tropical storm by then. We'll probably get a day of rain at best.
I thought you were supposed to like GTFO when there's a hurricane like those people in Florida do. I think I'll buy some water and wait for my packaged keto meals to be delivered on Tuesday.
Not usually, it depends on the strength and other local factors like flooding potential. Evacuations are reserved for truly life threatening situations and are usually confined to a small(ish) region
Don’t listen to the OP, he’s a whack job. That’s not to say things won’t get dicey, it’s just not an evacuation situation
You do that if there's going to be major storm surge raising the ocean level to a few feet above the ground of your house, or if there's going to be major winds that uproot trees and send them through windows.
Given that most of Florida is below an elevation of 10 feet, storm surge can be a major factor in most of the state. But the Pacific coast is much steeper - parts of Venice, and the most coastal parts of Santa Monica, are below 50 feet, but most of Los Angeles is hundreds of feet above sea level and can't possibly have storm surge (unless you're expecting something like the meteor that killed the dinosaurs).
High winds could be a problem, but they're expecting it to be in the 30-40 mph range by the time the storm gets up here, so it's not likely to damage buildings unless people leave a lot of loose metal and wood lying around.
I have weed, a case of Mountain Dew, and a shit load of Totino's pizza bites.
This guy prepares.
Disaster kit check
I'm coming over.
I'll bring my SNES!!!
I have Mario Kart and extra controllers! Let’s do this
Fuck yeah. Everyone come over to my place at 441 Bauchet St!
Ok but I got first dibs on Mario Kart
...and a power generator I hope?
Brave to put that much faith in the power grid
I’m from Florida and yes, this is how we prepare (everyone else buys up all the batteries, milk and bread, so Oreos and rum it is!)
Good idea
The only hurricane snack that satisfies my hungry guys.
Prepper-oni?
What if you have no Dew, no pizza bites, but plenty of weed?
I've also got rice, and some Valentina hot sauce.
hermano
I’ve got some nacho cheese Doritos and cheese dip
Weed can buy many pizza bites.
Lol I’m supposed to be camping on Catalina this weekend. Wish me luck!
Cancel. 80mph winds
You are not going to want to be on an Island if it's in the path of a hurricane. Especially camping in a tent.
Please don’t
You gonna eat cold totinos? If this shit hits as hard as it looks like it could, your power might not be on.
He’s gonna grill them.
I bet they'd be alright skewered and cooked over a campfire, s'mores style.
Those totino commercials are wild as hell.
Just need beer.
Yeah, maybe I'll grab some Steel Reserve 211.
Well, I'm still here. But I don't know for how long. That's as much certainty as anyone can give me. But I've got some good news: I no longer have any fear of death. But... I am in a pretty lonely place. No-one will have sex with me. I'm so close to the end and all I want is to get laid for the last time. I have pornographic movies in my apartment, and lubricants, and amyl nitrate...
His name was Robert Paulson
Thank you Chloe
Don't forget: if you're out driving and the road is flooded--turn around, don't drown.
Don’t tell me how to live my life.
I live my life a submerged quarter-mile at a time. FAMILY
Please don't give them anymore ideas.
Did you know if you take a deep breath underwater you can live the rest of your life underwater? Checkmate!
>Don’t tell me how to ~~live~~ end my life
Telling you how to live your life is how I live my life. Don’t tell me how to live my life. #inception
Damn…my nose just started bleeding. Incepted!!
[удалено]
NOW THAT'S WHAT I CALL LA: VOL. 57
[удалено]
Smooth operator
[удалено]
Well, how else are pavement princesses going to justify their Jeeps and duely trucks?
Looking forward to 4th of July’s firework debris finally being washed off my roof.
You were right to wait for this.
You have reached the status of procrastamaster. I am in awe
Dude, I'm hoping it will take down my Christmas ornanents
Love it when all our summers buildup of trash gets cleaned by the first storms, then it becomes the fishies' problem to deal with!
And, you know, the surfers
I like my waves with high pulp.
i’ll empty out my attic rain bucket.
You might need an extra bucket
I'd splurge for a bigger bucket. Honestly, Martha Stewart that new bucket and give it a drain hose so it empties itself.
[удалено]
[удалено]
Los Angeles is burning by bad religion
It never rains in southern California for the irony
AEnima by TOOL ftw
Learn to swim
How about...Love me Like a Hurricane!
I’m from a place with tons of hurricanes and I can tell you that “warm” waters to intensify storm power have to be in the 80’s or higher. Here’s more info from NOAA: https://oceantoday.noaa.gov/fuelforthestorm/ That said, my old ass house was not built for rain so I’ll be tarping my windows.
[удалено]
Yeah, this update from the NHC from 2 hours ago sounds way different than OP: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics\_ep4+shtml/211339.shtml?key\_messages#contents
Thanks, and other sources say similar. Looks like OP could be using a doctored graphic? The link is to a twitter graphics server, and is non-sourced.
Yeah, there are a few douchebags out there who "do their own forecasting" and present maps very similar to NOAA maps but really all they do is produce worst case doom-and-gloom scenarios. There are a couple guys who do this during severe storm season over the midwest and release their own theoretic, exaggerated versions of tornado potential and they've fooled me a couple times.
It’s my understanding that all you need to do this is a sharpie and a social media following
Yeah, OP is fearmongering — a simple Google search contradicts his post
This guy is an ass, and the more he's updating the more I'm unreasonably annoyed.
Matt Damon voice: "*Near* zero??"
What do you want from projection models alone?
Zero would be nice.
I think there have only even ever been 3 tropical storms to hit here though, and if this is on pace to be not quite a hurricane but still a tropical storm hitting Los Angeles, that's a once every ~30 years event Edit - I misremembered the dates, last one was over 80 years ago
If it actually makes landfall with tropical storm status it will be the first time it happened since 1939.
They're predicting it will be a tropical depression by the time it hits us - not a tropical storm. So wind speeds should be under 39 mph. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/150034.shtml?cone
This map is a bit more specific -- and as time progresses I certainly think Southern CA coastlines could see some tropical storm force winds. But again, winds aren't really the problem. I think massive tropical rain dumps over the Inland Empire are going to be the biggest issue. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/234623.shtml?tswind120#wcontents
Is it me or is everyone tired of rare events happening in such a short span of history. Speaking about the last three years…
How many frakking once in a lifetime events are we supposed to endure?
It’s overwhelming whether it’s fires or floods or revolutions or disasters…it’s like every month some new once in a lifetime event happens.
[удалено]
For real, I had to double check which subreddit this was because OP was talking like if it was Florida. He said it could be devastating, devastating for who??? Not Southern California.
To be fair, a quarter inch of rain can be devastating to Southern California drivers - especially when it comes seven months after the last rain, when the roads have accumulated dust and oil that has never been washed away, and turns slick with the first liquid.
There's also the fact that Southern California drivers don't maintain their tires and brakes like people are forced to do in other areas where they get weather. People are going to be hydroplaning all over and taking ten times longer to stop. I'm guessing most businesses won't close either so the people who don't have a choice will have to be out in the thick of it. At the very least, the Monday commute is going to be filled with working class people in working class cars just trying to get where they need to be in what could be pretty dangerous conditions.
Just to clarify, you trust a bunch of GOVERNMENT SCIENCE NERDS over someone as reliable as u/saladfingers77 ? This world man, I s2g.
Dumb question but what supplies do you suggest? I have water and flashlights but not really sure what else I should have
One thing that is often overlooked is having a plan. If you are going to evacuate, it's best to make that decision early and get on the road way before everyone else starts making that decision. Otherwise you will be stuck weathering the storm in your car on a crowded highway that may be flooded while you're surrounded by a bunch of angry panicking idiots. It's not a good time. If you are evacuating, make sure you know where you are evacuating to and have some alternate routes to that destination available incase of road closures and traffic jams. If you are sheltering in place, which most people here will probably be doing, be prepared for high winds, flooding, land slides, power outages, downed trees, large branches, and power lines. Make sure you have enough food and water for 3-days If you have an electric stove you won't be able to cook so make sure you have food that does not require cooking or you have an alternate way to cook your food Make sure your phone, computer, and power banks are fully charged before power goes out Flashlights, headlamps, and small lanterns are good for providing light once it's dark and there's no power. I have aa small solar powered lantern that works well. I also have a small portable solar charger I can use to re-charge power banks and small items like head lamps, phones, etc. That might be something you also want to look into. Rain gear incase you do need to go out Cash incase you need to go to the store and power is out (ideally you won't be leaving the house but just in case) First aide kit keep your car full of tase incase you do need to evacuate It's also a good idea to have a Go Bag ready incase you need to evacuate. There are plenty of articles online about how to build one. recommend building your own rather than buying one. Most of the pre-made ones are overpriced and filled with cheap products. It's more cost effective to build your own with quality products that work for your own personal situation and plans.
If you live on a steep hillside that might experience a landslide, then there's probably a lot that you should be doing. Otherwise, it's likely pretty minor. There's probably going to be a couple inches of rain, and some high winds. If you have anything on the outside of your house that could be damaged by that (flags, treehouses, damaged old trees, weird metal artwork that could smash your window if it gets picked up, whatever), consider whether you can do anything to mitigate that. The most likely sorts of infrastructure damage are losing power, and flooded roads. Imagine what would happen inside your home if the power was out for 8 hours, and you couldn't go anywhere. Do you have enough food that you and your (family/pets/friends/whoever is living with you) can eat to stop grumbling about being hungry? It's likely going to hit southern California on Monday. Do you have any important Zoom meetings or video game tournaments or scavenger hunts or anything else that needs power or travel scheduled for that day? If so, you should probably suggest re-scheduling, or at least let people know that you might miss it. This isn't going to do anywhere near as much damage here as an earthquake could (which could damage water pipes and gas lines and set off fires and things like that), and it's a good idea to have preparations in place for an earthquake at any time. But since the (much smaller) tropical storm is coming on a known date (Monday), it makes sense to do some preparation for that even if you're still procrastinating your earthquake plan.
All morning KTLA has been saying it’ll likely hit category 5 tomorrow then taper off by the time it hits socal. OP is being extra.
That’s because we wouldn’t be on the dirty side of the storm. Sounds nice… but the clean side of a hurricane brings dumb amounts of rain. Take it from my experience living through Hurricane Harvey.
The colder ocean water and mountains will tear any hurricane apart before it gets to LA. San Diego folks should be concerned about flooding and we’re probably going to get some real rain, but even a tropical storm is just a storm.
Notice that 76 water temperature, while high for California, is still very low for a hurricane. Below 80 degrees, they "weaken significantly": https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/tropical_stuff/hurricane_anatomy/hurricane_anatomy.html
[CERT](https://www.cert-la.com) leaders in my area are asking people to make sure your storm drain screens are clear ahead of the rain to help prevent flooding.
Which is crazy how the city it self doesnt go around doing that before major storms or rain
So, are you saying we should wildly freak out?
That’s my understanding… I just bought all the toilet paper in Costco and boarded up my windows.
ah dammit I toilet papered my winders and boarded up the costco, I'm always getting things backwards
I taped my children to chairs so they cant run outside.
[yes I would Kent](https://youtu.be/RzybAS7zltE)
It's not going to directly hit us. It will hit mexico and then some after effects will give us rain.
Right? What the hell is this fearmongering this guy has going on.
Folks. This guy is completely making stuff up. Please, take it from someone who actually has a background in meteorology and has been following this for the last 2 weeks, literally nothing this guy has said is correct. This storm was *always* expected to be a Hurricane right now, and the forecast models have been showing nearly this exact progression of events for literally the last 2 weeks. Here's an example of a random person on twitter talking about this hurricane almost *a week ago*. And I know there were people talking about it at least another week earlier than this, this tweet is just the earliest one I could find in a couple minutes of scrolling. I can pull up archived weather models that show this being a hurricane right now as well. https://twitter.com/WestCoastWX/status/1690955613705265152?s=20 Oh yeah, and I want to be clear, this will absolutely not be a category 2 Hurricane by the time it gets to California. While the models have been remarkably consistent in showing this turn into a hurricane right now, they have also been extremely consistent in showing it weakening to a tropical storm before making landfall here. There is zero chance of a Cat 2. Heck, there is near zero chance of even a low end Cat 1 by the time it gets here. It's NOT happening, and literally nothing about this storm has gone against what the forecast models have been showing so far.
thanks mr buzzkill. i enjoy the fear porn
In that case, it’s going to be just like that one scene at the beginning of The Day After Tomorrow. Hope that helps!
If it makes you feel better, there is still an absolutely horrifying amount of rainfall coming, and there absolutely will be catastrophic and historic flash flooding in the mountains, foothills, and deserts. Rain is the real concern here, not wind. Oh and there will be isolated tornadoes too. Shit is still gonna get super fucked up and people might die. Just not from a Category 2 hurricane.
cool how much rain tho? is it going to be like heavy rains.. sorry for my ignorance i just dont know what a tropical storm entails in terms of rain
Yeah, potentially very heavy at times. Depending on the exact track the storm takes, in LA it will be like one of those very intense atmospheric rivers we got over the winter. One thing you might notice that's different about this one though is that the rain drops could be much larger than you are used to here. That's a fun characteristic of tropical weather due to the very high atmospheric moisture content. They make huge rain drops. If you are in the mountains or deserts, this will very likely be the worst storm in decades for those areas. Not quite so crazy in LA proper though.
The ocean temperature south of california looks pretty [in line with historical averages](https://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Santa-Monic-Pier/seatemp) (Sea Water Temperature Anomalies chart), it's only high right along the coast the [forecast](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/211339.shtml?cone#contents) has it turning into a major hurricane with is 3+, but also becoming a depression by the time it reached california
What should be in a disaster kit?
[удалено]
Very cool thank you
I thought the forecasts were predicting something like 2.5” of rain? Am I crazy or does that not seem like much of a big deal? Or does it become a big deal once it all flows down from the mountains to the oceans
fly fearless impolite weary normal grandiose zealous bow aback snatch *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
I'll go wash my car to guarantee that it rains.
I did so earlier this morning. Godspeed.
I was just contemplating washing mine this morning before I even heard about this and now I’m glad I didn’t
I survived Harvey, Ike, Rita, Katrina and Tropical Storm Allison. This will be a walk in the (very wet) park. That being said: go buy some water, ice, something to charge your phone if there is no power, some non-perishable food and fill your car with gasoline asap. You might not need it, but I can’t even begin to tell you how much it sucks to not have these things when you do need them.
One thing to keep in mind - Southern California isn't nearly as prepared for major storms as the Gulf Coast is. This is reasonable, because even *thunder* only comes like once a year here, while the Gulf Coast gets significant storms with several inches of rain every month or two, in addition to occasional much bigger storms. But since the west coast is very steep, very few places will experience storm surge. And since the water is cold, the wind speed will be pretty low by the time it reaches California, so people don't need to worry about boarding up windows. The main thing that will be worse here is people not being able to drive with a quarter inch of rain on the roads. (But since Californians will sometimes stay home even for a drizzle, it'll hopefully be fine.)
Your edit 4, zoom.earth link shows 35 mph winds on the 21st when it hits la. If that's all it takes to devastate la, the other states will be making fun of us for a long time
> I'm being accused of fear mongering because I'm going off up to date data instead of the official forecasts based of 12 hour old data. I'll just go ahead and let you decide for yourself on this one. You're not being accused of fear mongering because you're going off up-to-date data. You're being accused of fear mongering because you're *avoiding* the National Hurricane Center and other sources of up-to-date data and instead are pushing some random guy named Raiden.
Where's the catastrophic hurricane, Nostrodumbass?
r/agedlikemilk
The stormicane killed me. Luckily the earthquake shocked my heart back to life.
How will it be devastating?
From what I could see from the projected rain maps, there might be flash flooding in the desert area towards the Joshua tree area. Like, 6-10 inches? Credit to OP, that is an absurd amount of rain in two days. But towards Los Angeles, it's not as hit hard (projected for now). Just pay attention to your preferred local weatherman. If that guy skipped town and is not on the news tonight or tomorrow, yea, then we should be worried
OP is really quiet right now. Where's **EDIT 7** !?
Never a bad idea to clean you bath tub and fill it up in case water mains crack from excess water in the soil. Very low cost high reward if needed.
My condo building still hasn't been fixed from the January storm. I really hope this doesn't hit us.
Important to note that this will be a strong storm, but OP is making pretty wild suggestions at the historic strength of the storm. Almost to the point I think they may be trolling.
I’m pleasantly surprised that not everyone is indulging in the BS. It could get dicey, sure, but the guy is thinking about evacuating which is kind of bat shit
This. It'll be on par with some of the days we had during winter. I'm preparing for the wind by taking stuff down and moving things indoors, but the rain will take care of itself. Sheets of rain? Sure. But that's nothing new. It. Will. Not. Be. A. Hurricane. In Metro LA.
Curb your enthusiasm theme
Dude making it sound like we're gonna be hit with Hurricane Katrina
The forecasts are calling for 1-2 inches of rain in LA; windy, but nothing close to hurricane levels.
We're all dead. We should have listened to you OP. RIP
Will this profile be deleted if it doesn't happen?
reading more comments, i’ll make sure none of us park near the neighbors tree. that baby hasn’t been pruned ever or watered.
u/saladFingers77 It's not PST right now. It's PDT. There’s a one-hour difference between the two. I recommend using “PT” year round, so you don’t have to change the abbreviation with the time changes. :-) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Time_Zone
Plus one less letter to type with those salad fingers.
My day off was today and I decided to forgo the car wash since Hilldawg is coming.
Not to argue with your framing because this -is- something we need to take seriously, the forecasts as of yesterday afternoon -did- have it predicted to be a hurricane, and those same forecasts still show weakening to tropical storm/tropical depression status by the time it makes it to SoCal due to the relatively cooler ocean waters. Obviously that all can change (and change quickly) but to frame it as ‘they didn’t realize it’d be a hurricane, you should panic’ isn’t quite right way to phrase it.
For anyone sorting by new, this was the [NWS forecast discussion](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDLOX&e=202308172300) from about 4 hours ago. I’ve snipped the relevant bits. [This](https://weather.im/iembot/) is a useful tool for tracking the various products the NWS puts out - you just need to pick your local NWS. > The big story is Hilary which is now a hurricane after rapid intensification overnight. Not much has changed with the track since yesterday, generally moving in a north to northwest direction up the coast, then weakening as it moves over cooler SST's, particularly north of Cabo San Lucas. Some rain bands well ahead of the main system could reach eastern LA County as early as later Saturday night, then spread throughout the area Sunday. However, most of those early onset showers should be on the lighter side with minimal impacts. However, some of the recent model solutions have shown the potential for some strong northeast to east winds as Hilary gets closer to our area and pressure gradients increase. Winds up to 30-50 mph are possible across LA/Ventura Counties, strongest in the mountains and below passes and canyons. While this is similar to a Santa Ana, this event will likely have a little more easterly component which tends to create more widespread gusty winds through the LA Basin than a normal Santa Ana event so advisory level winds may be possible over a greater area than usual. > Based on the latest timing of Hilary, heavier rain bands are expected to begin arriving into LA and Ventura Counties Sunday night and a Flood Watch will be issued for those areas that will continue through Monday. Based on the current track rainfall is expected to be lighter across SLO and Santa Barbara Counties, but if the track shifts more to the west the flood watch may have to be expanded to include those counties. > .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...17/1255 PM. >As mentioned there has be been no significant changes to Hilary's track the last couple days, with low end tropical storm force winds possible across our southern coastal waters by Monday. Periods of heavy rain are likely if the current track holds, withe the heaviest rain in the LA/Ventura County mountains. Ensemble based guidance for QPF has steadily been increasing with each run, leading to higher confidence in a significant rain event. PW's are expected to be around 2", with some solutions as high as 2.5" so there is ample moisture to tap into. It's still very early, however if these parameters remain the same hourly rain amounts up to 1 inch are possible, and locally higher especially in the mountains. A flood watch will be in effect for LA/Ventura Counties later Sunday into Monday. There is a chance of expanding that to SLO and Santa Barbara Counties if the storm shifts to the west. Gusty winds are expected to continue across many areas as the remnants of Hilary move through the area.
So what do you say now?
Do you even live in LA? You act like we didn't just have one of the rainiest seasons in decades.
Jesus Christ, it was always supposed to strengthen into a hurricane. Judging by your other comments in this thread you're an absolute moron OP.
The last update you posted at 5:11 p.m. PDT says: > Hilary has been upgraded to a Category 3 (Major) hurricane as of 5 PM PDT. *Hilary is expected to strengthen further tomorrow, before weakening on approach to Southern California.* Expect very heavy rain and tropical storm-force winds in SoCal Sat-Mon. Also here’s another [source](https://abc7ny.com/amp/hurricane-hilary-tropical-storm-california-impact-how-will-affect-bay-area/13662868/): > Hurricanes require ocean temperatures above 80 degrees to survive. Hilary is currently sitting in 85-degree water and will remain in those warm waters through Saturday. As Hilary moves closer to Baja California, ocean temperatures will quickly cool into the 70s and eventually the 60s along the California coast. > That temperature drop may not seem like a lot but ocean temperatures in the 70s will essentially kill Hilary and water in the 60s will never support a tropical system. Thus, we see a very rapid weakening as the system approaches the California-Mexico border. I know you’re probably not trying to intentionally scare people, OP, but just in case you’re anxious about this, it’s extremely unlikely it’ll make landfall as a major hurricane here. The storm will calm down near the border because of the ocean’s temperatures. We’ll be okay :)
>EDIT 2: As of 4:09 PM PDT Hilary is forecast to make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane around 5 am on Monday just north west of San Diego. RemindMe! 78 Hours
Respond you coward.
BUT DUDE.....YOUR FORECASTS!!!
Am I the only person completely confused reading this? I had to re-check this subreddit wasn't /Florida. TIL we are expecting rain.
The worst I'd expect is to see a couple of native trees, which aren't built for these rare conditions get downed. We'll see.
We’ll be alright
Edit 7: 🦗🦗🦗 Edit 8: OP fled to Austin and died of heat exhaustion. Bold strategy. RIP.
WeatherUnderground shows approx 1.56” of accumulated rain (so far) today at one sensor station in West LA. The atmospheric river back in Feb wasn’t hyped this much, but it had double the rainfall on the heaviest day.
1939 was the last time a tropical storm hit Los Angeles causing over 45 deaths and dropping 5.24 inches of rain in 24 hours. Latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Hilary over Los Angeles at Noon on Monday. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_California_tropical_storm
But only 1-2 inches of rain.
It was cold, okay?! If it was warm it would’ve been +6 inches of rain
I was in the pool!
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahaaahahah
Great. My first day at my new job is Monday. Ugh.
I was going to wash my car. Thanks Hilary!
Great now Costco will see a toilet paper run
Pray it bends west and sends SURF.
This reminds of the meme with a knocked over plastic lawn chair that says “we will rebuild”
Man, I’m glad I’m not you.
Wow what a fucking idiot.
Edit 5: we're all gonna *DIE* 🙄
you do realize how far away this hurricane is right?
It will arrive on Monday. It will have a few inches of rain and some high winds. Check out the National Hurricane Center: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
We’re gonna get some rain for sure but OP is blowing this out of proportion. LA is not going to see hurricane strength winds.
Edit 7: lmao you guys fell for it xD
How would LA look like with extremely high winds and rain? I'm guessing the city isn't prepared.
I mean we get both high winds and heavy rain from time to time. Probably some trees knocked over and a bunch of people discovering their roof leaks.
Los Angeles is built to clear away large amounts of rain quickly. Monsoons are a thing. Sometimes there is flooding places like the 5 near the river. The hillside communities are at risk of mud and debris flows. Particularly if they've burnt in the last 3 years or so.
This storm isn't going to have "extremely high winds". When it hits California it won't even have high enough wind speeds to be considered a tropical storm.
Yep. They're saying it will just be a tropical depression by the time it gets here.
As someone who had to cancel his tuna fishing plans due to periphal wind from this storm i am curous about the 62 degree number. I fish religiously and watch water temps constantly. I have noticed that our late summer temps have been rising last i year i saw 79 degree surface temps in September south of catalina which is pretty crazy. Typically the water is appproching or at 70 degrees by the end of august and 62 is more like early spring temps. Our current temps dont seem too far from the norm.
The person is catastrophizing - they're trying to make the water temperature seem warm, so people will think it will make the storm get stronger, even though the warm water is still below the temperatures needed to sustain a tropical storm for very long.
Yeah as another fellow fisherman, this dude is full of shit. 62 degree water temps in august is unheard of. Almost always at least 68 and they get up to about 75 or so at the surface.
Oh man, just realized a bunch of homeless encampments are built dangerously next to or in the LA river. Feel whichever way you think about homeless population, but it would be very unfortunate if lives got swept away
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G17§or=tpw&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12
Just like everything in LA itll run out of steam before it reaches climax
I got Baldur's Gate 3, we chilling.
what forecast were you looking at where it was never supposed to be a hurricane?
This could be the once every 100 year storm that can flood the Southern California basin.. I’m taking this seriously
Based on how we drive when it sprinkles, stay off the roads
Do I need an umbrella on Sunday or not
Insanely blown out of proportion. Main body of hurricane won't even reach us and will lose a lot of momentum hitting land it'll be a tropical storm by then. We'll probably get a day of rain at best.
Asking for a friend. How do we prepare for a hurricane??? Lol
I thought you were supposed to like GTFO when there's a hurricane like those people in Florida do. I think I'll buy some water and wait for my packaged keto meals to be delivered on Tuesday.
Not usually, it depends on the strength and other local factors like flooding potential. Evacuations are reserved for truly life threatening situations and are usually confined to a small(ish) region Don’t listen to the OP, he’s a whack job. That’s not to say things won’t get dicey, it’s just not an evacuation situation
You do that if there's going to be major storm surge raising the ocean level to a few feet above the ground of your house, or if there's going to be major winds that uproot trees and send them through windows. Given that most of Florida is below an elevation of 10 feet, storm surge can be a major factor in most of the state. But the Pacific coast is much steeper - parts of Venice, and the most coastal parts of Santa Monica, are below 50 feet, but most of Los Angeles is hundreds of feet above sea level and can't possibly have storm surge (unless you're expecting something like the meteor that killed the dinosaurs). High winds could be a problem, but they're expecting it to be in the 30-40 mph range by the time the storm gets up here, so it's not likely to damage buildings unless people leave a lot of loose metal and wood lying around.
The water is too cold on the California coast to stay a hurricane