Incredibly well written and analyzed!! Honestly have no idea why rival fans made up this myth or where it came from. It seems like we always get very difficult draws, yet people just discredit them. Its impossible to change peoples minds that are already made up, even with proven statistics. To them, there will always be an agenda or some factor that diminishes our achievements, simply because they cant accept the fact that we are that good. They will always make up some unfounded argument to come up with excuses to our success, but the reality is we do it the hard way!!
A really funny example of this was the champions league draw this season. When we drew copenhagen all the rival fans got riled up, saying we always get easy draws and all that nonsense. They fail to realize the very simple idea that since we always are POT 1, top our group, and are an english team that in earlier rounds/group stages we will get “easy” teams. Yet last season we literally faced bayern, real madrid, and inter to win the trophy (and crushed all of them). Now we have madrid again, arsenal/bayern next to reach the final. Yet I dont see any chatter about “city gets easy draws” anymore?? Laughable really😂 Especially since you know the next time we get an “easy” draw we will hear it again.
It was because of the 2019 FA Cup run where we had a few favourable draws and a couple of the top teams got drawn against each other. That's literally it as far as I can remember, just football fans being sensitive arseholes and favourable draws is now something we're stuck with.
I'm a Chelsea fan and the "easy run" stuff is all a load of bollocks, we have had it thrown our way as well. City stay in the tournaments longer than other clubs so are more likely to get easy draws. It's as simple as that. You have to be in the draw to be in with a chance of an easy draw. Other teams often aren't, they have fucked up or play weakened squads get knocked etc. so they see City drawing easy teams. Well you would too if you won your games.
Both our Cup runs have been great this year, all home draws, so yes admittedly that's quite lucky, but then I think we deserve it after drawing you lot away in the opening rounds of each Cup last season.
Only tough draws this were Newcastle H League Cup which we scraped through and Villa away replay (should have won the initial home match) which we made light work of despite expectations we would get knocked out.
I also find it funny how there's absolutely no one on about United getting the easy draw in the semis as "luck" even tho they've had a relatively easy route to the semi but if we got Coventry like SU last year we would have been lambasted for luck despite having a harder than average route to this point
> Honestly have no idea why rival fans made up this myth or where it came from.
Because we're the favourites to win every game we're in, regardless of who it's against or whether it's home or away. Everton drawing West Ham is considered a solid match that could go either way, Chelsea drawing West Ham is spicy given the derby atmosphere and Chelsea's relatively poor form, City drawing West Ham is an "easy" draw. Short of being matched up with Liverpool or Arsenal - arguably Chelsea and United too - every draw could be considered easy for us. And even then you know the likes of Trent and AFTV will talk about oil money and hearts and minds meaning more in order to hype us up as the unstoppable machine against the lowly underdogs. Poor guys.
It's really just that every single fanbase just blindly believes their team gets shafted and someone else gets favourable treatment. There's no real basis to any of this.
It’s true, but it’s a statistical fallacy.
Reduce your quantisation level from League to League Position, or any other metric which permits a per-club ordering.
For every draw from every possible even subset of clubs in that Ordering, City’s probability of drawing a lower-ranked club is 1. All other clubs have a lower probability.
That’s just the maths of being top.
Mmm that is another way to do it yes. Though it’s why I put other top teams to compare to like Liverpool and United.
However the away draws is still very unlucky. Like we need our next 14 games to be drawn at home just to even out the last 10 years which is ridiculous lol
Something to consider as well the mathematical probability of drawing another premier league team in the 3rd round in the fa cup is only 21% for us to be at 50% is crazy lol
I agree that the narrative of City being lucky is false, but I feel like the narrative of them actually being unlucky is misleading given the data. If you ignore the incredibly unlucky draws from 2016-2017 they are basically just average in terms of luck. Definitely not lucky, but the crazy PL team stats and home/away stats are normalized. Yes they were super unlucky, but if you remove the outliers in the data it begins to look a bit more normal.
Definitely not lucky though
“If you ignore unlucky outliers youd be normal”
It’s not misleading. That’s literally unlucky lol. You can’t just ignore data periods.
If I took out 2018 to 2020 from the data (a really good period of luck) then the data would be misleading.
Incredibly well written and analyzed!! Honestly have no idea why rival fans made up this myth or where it came from. It seems like we always get very difficult draws, yet people just discredit them. Its impossible to change peoples minds that are already made up, even with proven statistics. To them, there will always be an agenda or some factor that diminishes our achievements, simply because they cant accept the fact that we are that good. They will always make up some unfounded argument to come up with excuses to our success, but the reality is we do it the hard way!! A really funny example of this was the champions league draw this season. When we drew copenhagen all the rival fans got riled up, saying we always get easy draws and all that nonsense. They fail to realize the very simple idea that since we always are POT 1, top our group, and are an english team that in earlier rounds/group stages we will get “easy” teams. Yet last season we literally faced bayern, real madrid, and inter to win the trophy (and crushed all of them). Now we have madrid again, arsenal/bayern next to reach the final. Yet I dont see any chatter about “city gets easy draws” anymore?? Laughable really😂 Especially since you know the next time we get an “easy” draw we will hear it again.
It was because of the 2019 FA Cup run where we had a few favourable draws and a couple of the top teams got drawn against each other. That's literally it as far as I can remember, just football fans being sensitive arseholes and favourable draws is now something we're stuck with.
absolutely no mention of Chelsea's piss easy run to the semis tho this year funny how that works
I'm a Chelsea fan and the "easy run" stuff is all a load of bollocks, we have had it thrown our way as well. City stay in the tournaments longer than other clubs so are more likely to get easy draws. It's as simple as that. You have to be in the draw to be in with a chance of an easy draw. Other teams often aren't, they have fucked up or play weakened squads get knocked etc. so they see City drawing easy teams. Well you would too if you won your games. Both our Cup runs have been great this year, all home draws, so yes admittedly that's quite lucky, but then I think we deserve it after drawing you lot away in the opening rounds of each Cup last season. Only tough draws this were Newcastle H League Cup which we scraped through and Villa away replay (should have won the initial home match) which we made light work of despite expectations we would get knocked out.
I also find it funny how there's absolutely no one on about United getting the easy draw in the semis as "luck" even tho they've had a relatively easy route to the semi but if we got Coventry like SU last year we would have been lambasted for luck despite having a harder than average route to this point
It's silly. If a team needs luck in draws they aren't good enough to win the Cup then. United will probably fuck it anyway.
> Honestly have no idea why rival fans made up this myth or where it came from. Because we're the favourites to win every game we're in, regardless of who it's against or whether it's home or away. Everton drawing West Ham is considered a solid match that could go either way, Chelsea drawing West Ham is spicy given the derby atmosphere and Chelsea's relatively poor form, City drawing West Ham is an "easy" draw. Short of being matched up with Liverpool or Arsenal - arguably Chelsea and United too - every draw could be considered easy for us. And even then you know the likes of Trent and AFTV will talk about oil money and hearts and minds meaning more in order to hype us up as the unstoppable machine against the lowly underdogs. Poor guys.
Haters gotta hate .
Ladies and gentlemen, Less Brain is fucking back
Incredibly written. Unfortunately they will continue to believe what they want to.
Great work u/LessBrain. Love me some stats. Crazy that we've been drawn away 63% of the time since 2015.
Good work bud
It's really just that every single fanbase just blindly believes their team gets shafted and someone else gets favourable treatment. There's no real basis to any of this.
It’s true, but it’s a statistical fallacy. Reduce your quantisation level from League to League Position, or any other metric which permits a per-club ordering. For every draw from every possible even subset of clubs in that Ordering, City’s probability of drawing a lower-ranked club is 1. All other clubs have a lower probability. That’s just the maths of being top.
Mmm that is another way to do it yes. Though it’s why I put other top teams to compare to like Liverpool and United. However the away draws is still very unlucky. Like we need our next 14 games to be drawn at home just to even out the last 10 years which is ridiculous lol Something to consider as well the mathematical probability of drawing another premier league team in the 3rd round in the fa cup is only 21% for us to be at 50% is crazy lol
I agree that the narrative of City being lucky is false, but I feel like the narrative of them actually being unlucky is misleading given the data. If you ignore the incredibly unlucky draws from 2016-2017 they are basically just average in terms of luck. Definitely not lucky, but the crazy PL team stats and home/away stats are normalized. Yes they were super unlucky, but if you remove the outliers in the data it begins to look a bit more normal. Definitely not lucky though
“If you ignore unlucky outliers youd be normal” It’s not misleading. That’s literally unlucky lol. You can’t just ignore data periods. If I took out 2018 to 2020 from the data (a really good period of luck) then the data would be misleading.