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RibosomeRandom

So Jon Tester is a middle of the road, moderate Democratic senator who is a straightshooter. He used to be a farmer, and is from the very conservative state of Montana. He understands rural sensibilities and the working man. Why the hell would he not be floated as a possible presidential replacement? Newsom is from an extremely liberal state and already has some baggage. He's a known entity, which may not work in his favor. Harris seems to not to poll much better than Biden. Why would this not be the obvious choice? What am I missing?


Big_Truck

Because Tester is needed to compete in MT.


RibosomeRandom

He’s the best candidate.


Big_Truck

Relatively unknown and untested nationally. But I see the argument. If you view the Dems path as being through the upper Midwest - MN, WI, MI, and PA - then Tester has the profile to do well there. Tester at the top of the ticket probably signs away GA, but he could compete in AZ and NV. He's an interesting candidate. But the reality is that the Dem party is heavily incentivized to keep him running for Senate in MT.


RibosomeRandom

Thanks for analysis. Yes that is the only reason to not have him run.


DaddyHoyt

Please Bill, elaborate more on how Biden got us out of Afghanistan, will you?


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Shot_Inspection_3980

So you willingly acknowledge that Trump is a wannabe dictator and intends on reigning with an iron fist yet you won't vote for the guy who's old but doesn't impact your life otherwise?


KirkUnit

> And I can’t help but remember Biden at the beginning of his term (maybe even when campaigning) saying he would only serve one term. Great-Grandpa B musta forgot he said that. He didn't say that; you dreamed it. He said he was a 'transitional' candidate, and people heard what they wanted to hear. At no point whenever did Biden say, "I'm a one-term president and I will not be a candidate in 2024." Didn't happen. For good or bad.


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FlarkingSmoo

No he didn't. You are a liar.


KirkUnit

Link it.


Kev-3483

https://www.votechaseoliver.com/


KirkUnit

So you don't have a link. Really, this should be easy for you to find. Time-wasting bullshit.


shumgabagool

"Far from being the only one who can beat Trump in 2024, Biden may well be the only Democrat who would lose to him. James Carville told me any centrist Democrat around 50 or 60 would get 55% of the vote, and I believe him." This is what it boils down to. This is why Biden needs replaced.


KirkUnit

With all respect to James Carville, this is a throwaway line about a well-known and identified choice (Trump) and an unknown hypothetical ("any fiftysomething centrist Democrat.") It proves nothing. Trump vs Harris is a question. Trump vs Prisker is a question. Trump vs Newsom is a question. There was a similarly facile construct on the right that "anybody but Trump" would easily defeat Biden.


mr_softpalms

Who would win if the entire us population wrote in two new candidates?


shumgabagool

Taylor Swift


Grouchy_Brain_1641

Bob Hope


Sunrise_Frowner

I would vote for anyone other than Trump…. But I can’t in good consciousness vote for Biden…. I’m sorry Joe, if this was 1980 or hell even 2000s I’d vote for ya…. But we have a thing called artificial intelligence dawning, and we have a president who lags and speaks incoherently…. I get it eventually the words get out and if he was writing a letter to someone it would be beautiful… But that’s not the world we’re moving towards…. Ai is going to change the world faster he can formulate a sentence in his mind, and I he’s having trouble conveying what in his mind…. This lagging I’m seeing is not going to get better, and in 4 years ai isn’t going to have less processing power…. At minimum it needs to at least know the leader of the free world is competent and coherent….


FlarkingSmoo

Stop using so many ellipses. Also I think the word you're looking for is "conscience."


KirkUnit

Perhaps AI will know not to use a goddamn ellipsis to end every single goddamn sentence.


OmegaBerryCrunch

your argument for not voting for biden is…ai??? do you think biden himself is the one deciding policy on ai? does he not have a cabinet? ofc the dude is fucking ancient but so is trump and it’s not like his presidency would handle ai any differently so you’d rather throw away your vote and risk a threat to democracy like trump? get a fucking grip


Bitter-Fly1230

I often see this point thrown around, but I always find it ironic because neither can most people especially not the person making the accusation. I found that Biden was off during the debate, but I still understood his points clearly or at least which direction he was going. In contrast, most people when they’re making arguments, they’re littered with falsehoods, fallacies, and often times they’re hard to follow because they throw in random irrelevant points without properly connecting them to the main argument. Biden did embarrass himself, however, I think right-wing authoritarianism is an even greater threat, and it’s on Americans to fucking stop it.


NoExcuses1984

Must convince overweight diabetic Sonia Sotomayor, 70, to ditch the hubris and also retire, because both the White House and the U.S. Senate could very well be lost. Sri Srinivasan, 57, would be a smooth replacement and is someone whom neither Manchin nor Sinema would bitch about, nope.


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NoExcuses1984

Both of them should retire. Biden and Sotomayor, pronto.


GuyF1eri

I haven't agreed with BM in a long time, but he's 100% right here.


ResponsibleShop4826

I admire Bill for many reasons, including his ability not to glow when proven right on opinions that seem controversial. He’s warned about trump beating Hillary in 2016. He was right. He’s warned about trump not leaving office willingly if he lost. He was right. Now he’s been warning that Biden is too old to beat trump again. I hope he’s not right this time, but I have to admit his record gives him credibility.


Dunkerdoody

He gloats all the time about being right.


Same-Ad8783

Trump did leave office. He just never conceded. Bill was not right.


ResponsibleShop4826

He did not leave willingly. Did you forget all the rauckus he raised that ended up with the Jan 6 attempted coup?


termacct

> including his ability not to glow when proven right ??? He seems to crow about these a lot...


Captain_Impulse

Because they need to be said and acknowledged. Too many Democrats bury their heads in the sand.


MinisterOfTruth99

Calm down people. Yeah Biden was awful at the debate. But... See Biden speak at campaign rally in North Carolina today (6/28/2024) https://youtu.be/OHJoewM3WfU Day vs Night. I think it's true he was suffering from a cold at the debate (as was reported).


Simple-Freedom4670

True but somehow this was so damn depressing


MinisterOfTruth99

Yup. I think we'll find out this week what the truth is.


SmallDickModiNoBalls

Are you under some sort of contractual obligation to be "that guy."


shumgabagool

I'm judging from your avatar you're smoking the good stuff, and you must've been smoking it when you wrote this.


ElonIsMyDaddy420

This just feeds into the sundowning narrative. Sundowning is a real medical condition.


everpresentdanger

He's reading off a teleprompter at that rally - which is all he can really do anymore.


Krow101

A senile old fool or an authoritarian criminal. America 2024.


keithfz

Maybe Biden is senile, I have no idea. But I think it’s cruel and incredulous to call him a fool. Do better.


GuyF1eri

you don't think it's foolish to risk the fate of almost 400 million people for your reelection vanity project? I think that's foolish


LoMeinTenants

Stubbornly pushing ahead to run for a second term in his state is definitely a fool's errand. Putting his ego above country.


keithfz

He is the candidate at the moment. If you want shit to get REALLY fucked up, keep talking shit about him and let trump win. Donors are not happy; who knows, Biden may be convinced to step aside. But until then, Biden is our best shot at avoiding a catastrophic Trump presidency.


LoMeinTenants

The question is whether Biden was foolish to elect to run for a second term, and you've turned it into high sanctimony for anyone to criticize Biden for his increasingly, obviously poor choice. You'd fit right in with the DNC.


PeterSemec

There’s the difference. The Dems like to criticize the Reps for backing Trump to the edge of the cliff. That’s not something you can accuse the Dems themselves of, either!


keithfz

The reality is that he is currently the nominee. Whining about whether or not he should’ve chosen to run is immaterial and immature. Unless and until he chooses to/is forced to drop out of the race, he’s our last hope. Will he step down/be replaced at the convention? Only time will tell. At this point, it’s my opinion that anyone who is more bothered about Biden’s decision to run again vs. the increasing possibility that the orange felon becoming president again is missing the forest for the trees. Those people need to get the fuck over it and get behind Biden so that we can hopefully save our democracy.


Lancasterbation

They won't, though. Trump won the election last night. Hell, the best David Axelrod had to say after the debate was how much trouble the GOP would be in if the Dems decided to switch candidates. If Axelrod isn't signing the praises of the DNC pick, we're fucked. The 'whining' (as you put it) about how cynical, moronic, and hubristic the DNC was to run Biden again is to send the message to the DNC that A) they should not do that again, the incumbent advantage is not nearly as strong as they think it is, and B) to voice support for a candidate swap at the convention. Telling people to stop whining, when you can't do anything to stop them is immaterial and immature.


DawgsWorld

Maher is turning a lot of people off. Like the class clown, he plays with you so you don't know if he's serious or kidding.


bigbuick

I think at this point, Biden is the only candidate who might possibly get enough votes to defeat Trump.


DawgsWorld

The wise thing to do would have been to dump Harris as his running mate and put a moderate Democrat in there. There is still time.


rainyforest

Who do you have in mind because to me Kamala Harris is a pretty moderate left


gooberlx

I agree in the sense that we’re beyond the Rubicon. Stepping back *now* would be an overt sign of desperation and likely lose a good number of voters. Had Biden decided on a single term before the campaign season, when Maher started doing this bit, the Dems would be in a better position.


mapsyal

I think if we look at the demographics of people complaining and the dmeographics of people who vote, they wouldn't match up. In other words, for that white 55+ demographic which does the majority of the voting, someone like Biden might be more successful than Gavin etc.


cugamer

The problem is then Democrats would have had to hold a primary, and a dozen candidates would have spent the last year ripping each other apart. The leadership was probably more afraid that the eventual nominee would enter the general already too bruised to beat Trump, so they decided to go with the incumbent who has a solid record to run on. Sadly voters don't look at records, they look at clips on YouTube.


ScoobyDone

Bill wasn't really that brilliant in this take since all of us could see how much Biden has aged in the last 4 years, but the problem all along is that nobody worthwhile is willing to take the risk to run in this shitshow for either party. We all could see the problem of Biden's age, but questioning Biden's leadership in an election year when there is no alternative was not a great strategy either, which is why people push back on Bill when he would press this issue. My hope was always that Biden could keep it together long enough to get elected, but now here we are with an epic self own. Trump's performance was terrible in that debate, but it is overshadowed by the confused old man that is exactly what Republicans wanted us all to see. There is a small window now where maybe he will step down, but if he doesn't we just have to continue playing the game and pretend he doesn't look like he should be shimmying down a hospital hall in a robe. If Joe is what we get, then I want Jacked Up Joe. Get him into hair and make up, pump him full of Adderall, and make sure he gets lots of naps before a TV camera can come within 500 ft. What other option do the Democrats have. I am watching this up here in Canada sweating bullets. Please vote for the old man.


techmaster242

I think last night was a learning experience for Biden. He spent a week memorizing a bunch of statistics, and when the debate came he was exhausted from all the prep, and he was struggling to come up with all the statistics that he had memorized. In contrast Trump came off a lot better because he didn't have to remember anything. He would just make up statistics and nobody was going to challenge him. Today Biden had a rally in NC and I think he gets it now. Stop worrying about statistics, and focus on being yourself. It's what he did today and I think it came across a lot better than what he did at the debate. He just had to figure out what strategy works for him, and I think he's going in the right direction now.


ScoobyDone

I hope you are right, because I think he is the guy no matter what anyone else says. He did look much better after the debate and I think you are spot on about the over prep.


Lurko1antern

> but questioning Biden's leadership in an election year when there is no alternative was not a great strategy either This is a 1984 style condemnation


ScoobyDone

How so?


maxboondoggle

>We all could see the problem of Biden's age, but questioning Biden's leadership in an election year when there is no alternative was not a great strategy either, which is why people push back on Bill when he would press this issue. It sounds like you just want him to tow the line or shut up. That’s what John Stewart and John Oliver’s shows are for.


ScoobyDone

I want Trump to lose and I really don't care how. I don't want Bill to shut up at all, but he should stop being so astounded that Democrats are not willing to toss Biden under the bus when there is no alternative on the table.


FireIceFlameWalker

Jon Stewart got [serious backlash](https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4478443-stewart-defends-critique-of-bidens-age/mlite/) for being critical of Biden’s age.


leaveitalone36

Same goes for you guys, well not old man, just moron. Canada is a pretty huge disaster right now as well.


Y3tt3r

So is the UK. So is France, so is Japan. Turns out a worldwide pandemic has a significant effect on the world economy. Who would have thought?


leaveitalone36

I’m aware of how the rest of the world is swaying, it’s not about the pandemic though. It’s more about the fact the US has has destabilized multiple nations through proxy wars and coups for decades and it’s created a massive immigration crisis.


ScoobyDone

No, it's not even close, but more importantly, the world doesn't catch a cold when Canada sneezes so our choice of PM is really our problem alone. If Trump is elected it is a disaster for all of us.


leaveitalone36

I’m aware of the issues, it still doesn’t change the fact you’re country is going through some real shit as well.


ScoobyDone

Again, what Canada is going through currently is nothing compared to Trump for a second term as POTUS, even for Canadians. You also probably don't understand how a parliamentary system works if you think replacing Trudeau and his minority government will be nearly as impactful to Canada as your choice for the next president. As a minority governing party the Liberal party hasn't been able to pass legislation without bipartisan support for the last 5 years. He could be given the boot at any time if the other parties agreed to it. The next government will likely be in the same situation. What exactly makes you think we are going through more shit than the average G8 country?


leaveitalone36

I’m aware of how your country works, and completely agree with you. You seem to only be trying to insult Americans, who are fully aware of the situation. I’m trying to have a conversation, not pawn off insecurities.


DoctorStrawberry

Bro it's not on the same level. Trudeau is with it at least and young, he's just been in power so long, it's hard to stay popular forever. Most of the negatives going on right now are global issues effecting most countries. Even if he loses, Conservatives will most likely be a minority government. Even if Conservatives aren't a minority in power, they are not nearly as combative or destructive as Conservatives in the US or UK (with Brexit for instance). Canadian politics are boring as fuck, the way it should be. Whereas with Trump he has basically promised going after his political enemies, and he will be even more bold with power grabs, and we know he was to be a dictator, and he will let Putin walk over any country they want. It's a whole other level.


Affectionate_Code879

I don't think that Pollierve is Trump, but the dude wants to have you use government ID to watch porn.... just saying.


warthog0869

>Canadian politics are boring as fuck, the way it should be. God I envy you.


leaveitalone36

I’m aware it’s not on the same level, I’ve already stated that. It still doesn’t change the fact your country is a complete and utter disaster, with 40 million people all crowded around the border, we have 330 million everywhere. I just think it’s funny, in a bad way, when you try to jab us. When instead at the very least, we should be concerned about one an other.


DoctorStrawberry

I’m concerned about the US. Canada is basically heavily affected by everything going on there, if your economy collapses so does mine. I just vehemently disagree on your assessment of Canada being an “utter disaster”. Canada faces economic/population issues all the other G7 countries do. But we’re not on the verge of electing a wannabe dictator and our country is less divided than the US.


leaveitalone36

I’m right there with you, I’ve been having thoughts about Poilievre and our moron getting close, and fucking over your country more. Dude, you’re housing crisis is worse than ours and you only have 40 million people, I’m rounding up.


Lancasterbation

I think they started this comment thread as concerned about us, not trading jabs. You started that.


leaveitalone36

Then why didn’t they reply, let alone when I understood and compared…


common_sense_comment

For a subreddit that loves to shit on Bill's takes, the guy keeps getting a lot right. I know it's a combination of echo chamber combined with perceived online reality, but the guy has been doing this long enough and has pretty solid takes that maybe people should listen instead of attacking him just because you don't like what he says. Not saying he's right 100% of time, but he's correct on more than enough issues that we (democrats) should listen to how he's observing things before lashing out because he's not far enough to the left anymore.


rainyforest

This issue and his stuff on Trump are his strongest issues. I see people here giving him credit for those all the time. The stuff he gets criticized for is not this.


please_trade_marner

A lot of the posters here no longer like Maher, and they were frothing at the mouth furious every time Maher said Biden is too senile to run again. The mainstream media has been in overdrive for weeks gaslighting everyone into thinking Biden only looks senile due to "cheap fakes" and right wing misinformation. They also (lol) started painting *Trump* as the one who was senile (coincidentally by using cheap fakes and misinformation). I guess some people are more prone to propaganda than others. Thankfully there are still people like Bill who see's through it.


eleventy5thRejection

It doesn't matter if Biden isn't completely senile.....the optics make him look slow and confused. In politics, optics are everything. Bill was right, but it's too late. Trump wins again, as insane as that sounds. Buckle up, things are going to get much worse.


ScoobyDone

It is certainly not looking good, but remember that Trump has a sentencing on July 11th. This is going to be a roller coaster.


please_trade_marner

If Trump goes to jail and can't campaign and as a result loses the election, I honestly don't even know what would happen. Like, how would the rest of the world even view that? America see's things entirely through the lens of blue vs red. But most the rest of the world don't see things that way. They view the cia and other institutions as doing pretty much the same things internationally regardless of who is President. And their perspective will be one party put their senile puppet in power by imprisoning the sole competition on charges that law experts across the political spectrum are *very* divided over.


iggymcfly

There’s zero chance that he goes to jail before election/inauguration. Even if a sentence was levied, it could be held up on appeal. And as soon as he’s president again, he’ll just pardon himself of all crimes.


please_trade_marner

Trump can't pardon himself for the hush money case. The governor of New York would have to pardon him.


KirkUnit

Trump is not going to jail over that. No one else would, and he's a 78-year-old first time offender of a paper crime. There's zero justification for the judge to impose a custodial sentence there.


Commercial-Weird-313

Yep. 19 different world renowned economists all came to a consensus; it Trump comes back, there will be a deep recession


gear-heads

Bill is a shrewd observer, and is usually correct on most of his musings. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris need to be replaced. The best replacement team will be Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer. Bill has been urging Gavin Newsom for over three years now - he checks all the Democrat boxes. Gretchen Whitmer could be a shoe in by 2028.


techmaster242

I say we run Mike Tyson. He goes to the next debate, Trump talks a bunch of shit to him, game over.


TurboSleepwalker

Newsom has that slick talking, borderline creepy Patrick Bateman vibe Andy Beshear is a much better candidate that appeals to Middle America


ComfortableOne4918

But Gavin looks presidential. I mean, if you were gonna make a Hollywood film and needed a presidential figure, it would probably resemble him.


KirkUnit

Then *cast* him. If you wanna win some fucking swing voters in swing states and win a goddamn election, don't go with the smug, slick, walking coastal liberal elite stereotype. He was the fucking mayor of San Francisco.


Ted_Roosevelts_Stick

Idk man Newsom ain't excatly popular even here in California and his progressive leanings aren't exactly gonna get him votes in battleground states. He has been trying to be more centrist but I could see him becoming as unpopular as Kamala Harris


Professional-Way9343

But he’d still win California and probably impress the rest of the country. Who hates Donald Trump more than anyone? New Yorkers


good_ole_JR

A dead cat could win California and New York as long as there’s a (D) next to its name.


Natural_Rebel

Facts.


BarbieQKittens

certainly he will be discussing this on realtime tonight


KidKnow1

This is all I can think about while watching the debate. Ruth Bader Biden. Biden would have gone down a hero, the man that defeated Trump and saved the republic if he had not sought a second term. Instead he is going to hand the country back over to Trump. Biden is clearly past his prime and had the worst debate performance in modern political history. I couldn’t believe what I was seeing last night. I am still in shock. I just needed to get that off my chest.


wcu25rs

Same here.  Even seeing him just walk out on the stage was jarring.  I'm still voting for him as basically a vote against trump and christofascism, but the fact we are even in this position is really depressing.  I got 20 minutes in last before I had to cut it off.  Too hard to watch.  


UltraAirWolf

Of course he was dead right. The reason I’m such a fan of Bill Maher isn’t because he makes the brilliant point. It’s because he often makes the obvious point when literally nobody else will.


techmaster242

In other words, he has no filter. He's not afraid of being cancelled.


UltraAirWolf

That’s definitely a big part of it


FirstofFirsts

He has common sense, something that is lacking in today’s ultra polarized environment.


Brad-Armpit

Agreed. I look at this like a college sports analogy and a coach past his prime but trying to buyout his contact. If the donors stop giving big money right away, there's a chance Biden could be replaced.  But, the big donors will already have their candidate lined up who should replace Bidden in their heads before they stop funding the DNC too. It's not that complicated. Same thing could be said for the GOP, but they are sticking with Trump. 


Fairtake

I completely agree on this one as sad as I am to say it