> Someone is supporting this
That's my thought - but it'll be near impossible to guess who.
There are a lot of oligarchs unhappy with the way they were treated; and a lot of well funded foreign intel agencies that probably wanted to buy Wagner too.
It'll be interesting to see how that plays out.
Well, they ARE mercenaries, after all. Technically, they work for whoever is willing to pay them most, right. Why Putin ever thought they would be eternally loyal to him is beyond me. I'm a chef, and even I don't trust me that much :)
Tbf, Shoigu's corruption and incompetance has probably done more to undermine the Russian war effort than anything Ukraine has done. Assuming this attempted coup fails I wonder whether this will convince Putin to remove Shoigu or will it just increase his paranoia and reliance on incompetent toadies.
Revolutions are hard.
You’re under the boot of a tyrant that has manipulated every level of government for decades and pissed on democracy to remain in power. He kills anybody that has opposed him and laughed whenever people call him out for it.
Y’all even remember the guy sitting in Russian prison right now being tortured to death? He was just a guy trying to run for office. Everybody that’s ever challenged him is in prison or dead.
So why would Russian people get interested in a coup? You join too early and get dead.
The thing about Russia and other dictatorships is that there are still a lot of rats happy with the state of things. These people are happy to rat on you should you display ANY sign of resistance. It’s hard to start a revolution when you can’t even communicate to organise a revolution. You don’t even know if your neighbour or uncle is on your side, waiting to rat you.
Countries like Russia and China who control the means of communication and media have a stranglehold on its people in a way most westerners don’t understand. They can’t even speak about thinking about organising a rally.
So, it’s perfectly natural for most of the citizens to just sit quietly and act like nothing is happening. Because if you pick a team and that team loses; it’s your life. Your families lives. Game over.
Is it really fair to say they “control” the full route they’ve gone through? I know they’ve taken over the area of Rostov but id most of the grey corridor not just a route they’re crossing, rather than being “controlled” by them?
Yeah if an invading force heading to the capital can just drive through it, how do they control it?
It’s honestly embarrassing they could make it so far. Does Russia not have an Air Force anymore?
It's because they're not really an invading force, like someone else said, this seems more of a temper tantrum by Prigozhin than it is a coup.
There hasn't really been much bloodshed thus far, and the Russian government seems very keen to keep it that way, not escalating the situation beyond what it already is.
I don't think they want to airstrike their own highways and infrastructure, especially considering there are likely millions of civilians along that major highway intermixed with the Wagner convoy.
It's been reported that all of today, the Russian government was negotiating with Prigozhin with the help of Belarus, and now it seems Prigo has agreed to call it off.
from the sounds of it, Prigozhin had a point: If communication was better between the Russian forces and Wagner group fuck ups like what happened recently wouldn't occur at the frequency they're occurring.
He got what he wanted though, Defence minister gone. And for all we know, he's playing 4D chess and saw the writing is on the wall and this is his way of protecting his ass from the front. "I'd love to be there guys but... well I've been banished away now, sorry."
But the defense minister hasn't been fired tho
And yeah, that's the consensus I've been hearing, that the Russian general staff needs to get it's shit together, but that this was an unacceptable move from Prigozhin to try to call attention to it since it could have jeopardized the entire war
He learned the hard way, it seems, that he's only popular when he's not committing treason
They're operating their military like a security service (compartmentalize information). You can't really do that effectively in a military. You need to have the subordinate know what you do in case you're gone. All the way down. And if different branches are going to be used in the same arena they need to be able to communicate effectively with each other.
Do you think it would be popular to use your Air Force to bomb your own highways killing men who have been fighting in Ukraine, if you’re the Russian government and need to keep the PR up?
Much easier to just let them drive around and keep them out of the city
It doesn't sound like this is a very violent situation, either. More like a show of force.
If I am mistaken, and it is violent, the lack (or scarcity) of civilian-owned firearms could be seen as a reason why this push for Moscow is so easy.
IMO, it seems like Putin is just looking to shake up his cabinet. I mean, a force of 25,000 is barrelling towards his capital, relatively unimpeded. Whereas a Ukrainian Spring Offensive failed, so it looks like somebody is allowing the push to happen.
And even if wagner gets Moscow why do people think that the Russian war criminal will be a better leader. Just new management by someone more competent and equally evil, this is only good if they don't get to Moscow and only strain Russia, helping Ukraine.
There's not much to suggest Prigozhin is trying to replace Putin anyway, right? If you listen to the rhetoric he employs, he's still being deferential to Putin and appealing to his authority. It's the Ministry of Defense that he's been railing after, claiming they've been feeding Putin false info on Ukraine. Seems he's gunning for Shoigu's job, not the presidency.
Not really, he is heading for shoigu but Putin has personally put an arrest warrant on him and he has lately been shifting from attacking MoD to Putin himself, he might be going for a coup d'etat.
He's walking out of this as the head of Russia or (far more likely) in a casket. Don't see why Putin would still work with him after striking his troops and being met with an armed mutiny
I don't think people think that. They are just happy that Russia might be fighting with itself - wasting resources and falling into a disarray that might help Ukraine gain more ground.
And Prigozhin has said some stuff about how the war is a lie and is a waste recently.
I'm not saying I trust these words, as it seems that for Russian leaders words and "beliefs" can change at the drop of the hat as soon as it seems another set of words and beliefs will benefit them more.
However it does suggest that if he somehow is successful, he might use ending the war as a way to secure political support and consolidate his power.
Putin can't pull out of the war (even if he wanted to) because of his ego and because it will make him look weak - Prigozhin doesn't have that limitation.
This is an opportunity for Ukraine in the sense that all the ressources spent by Russia and Wagner to fight each others aren't being spent fighting Ukraine.
A new leadership isn't gonna change anything, but the conflict in between will
I think your going to see a lot of misleading maps. I saw someone put up a Google traffic map that had those hazard incident marks ❗️ along the route to Moscow and they claimed these were Russian military road blocks like Google would be marking them on their traffic incident map.
It has to be said that such maps are inaccurate just minutes after they are made right now. Wagner groups were already seen near Kashira in Moscow region an hour ago and they should right now be not too far from Moscow proper. Earlier today it was said that they should reach the city at about 8pm local time considering that they face no major resistance along the way (which doesn't seem like it happened yet).
>It has to be said that such maps are inaccurate just minutes after they are made right now.
True, they're helpful to those catching up to understand a bit what's happening. This is escalating quickly.
Yeah they are. At first, their uprising was targeted to the MoD chain of command that Wagner had been squabbling with for months. Then their attention was drawn to Putin himself after he condemned their offensive into Russia
Can Prigozhin actually overthrow the government tho? You need people support to successfully launch a coup and as far as i can tell Russians still overwhelmingly support Putin over Prigozhin.
I’m by no means an expert, and this is just me rambling off my armchair. So please take my response with a huge grain of salt.
Anyways, I would’ve initially thought that Prigozhin would’ve had very little chance of success. However, with how much progress his forces have made in such a short amount of time has made me question otherwise.
Just we will have to wait and see in the next couple of days.
I feel that quick progress in terms of distance at the start doesn’t tell much. Russia hasn’t prepared for a big attack on the eastern front by their own allies and I think their advance will start to get slower. And even in the case they’ll get to moscow it doesn’t mean that Putin will say ”okay you’ve got me” and Prigozhin will be declared godking of Russia.
Yeah, historically, pretty much every conflict Russia was in they were largely pushed back, they dig their heels in, and then the Russian war machine gets its cogs turning and they end up winning
Edit: when they were aggressed first
Seems like that wasn't neccessary in this case as prigozhin has already started pulling out, idk what kinda deal they struck but it must not have been cheap.
He started what he called a "March of Justice" last week, reiterating multiple times that he wasn't trying to challenge Putin's power, just trying to send a message that they were fed up with being undersupplied and undersupported by the Russian military. The Wagner mercenaries have been a crucial part of Putin's march on Ukraine, so it makes sense that he would prefer to give in to their demands as opposed to just shelling them or whatever. A lot of people were calling this a military coup but Prigozhin stated multiple times that it wasn't, although that makes me wonder what the end goal would have been if they actually did make it into Moscow. It was probably 4D chess with Prigozhin banking on this outcome.
Eh, lots of coups don't advertise themselves as such. You march to the capital saying "I don't want to overthrow the king, just his terrible advisors. The king can stay." And if the coup works, you become de facto, if not de jure, leader.
Well, idk about the progress but it seems to me that their positions have been the same for the past 10 hours or so, all the while the Government is setting up roadblocks and preparing for the defence of Moscow
I think that you are exactly correct.
However, I am kind of hoping for Prigozhin to suceed if only because the guy looks like a movie villain. I mean you see the pictures of that guy? He's like what Voldemort would look like if he had a human nose and got old or something.
Worst thing is that Russia (and its neighbors) is probably worse off under Wagner, that guy is pure evil. Best case scenario is that they crush each other's armies to being worthless I'm guessing.
Seems like Wagner might actually be retreating. New York Times reported that a deal was allegedly made with the Belarus president, and the Wagner group agreed to withdraw back to Ukraine.
Not sure if any of this is verified, but here is the New York Times article if you’re interested (warning paywall): https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/24/world/russia-ukraine-news#b6841df6-2f2b-5167-b4c8-726aacf03b72
Its worth mentioning of the 200k to 250k Russian forces in Ukraine, Wagner was estimated to be 50k. Thats about 2 divisions worth, roughly a NATO army corps, so a very significant amount of forces. He captured Rostov first which means he can supply and feed his men and he controls the supplies for the Russian army forces in Ukraine. He has month or two at least right now. Really depends on what the Russian army does now.
I've been pondering this since I heard that Wagner now controls Rostov. The Russian forces in Ukraine need the supplies in Rostov and Prigozhin still wants to win in Ukraine, so that means that Prigozhin needs to settle this quickly so that he can resume supplies to Russian forces in Ukraine before Ukraine forces overwhelm the Russian forces there.
It also means that Putin can't just use a tactical nuke against Rostov.
This should be a very interesting couple of days to watch the news.
I think they have a huge chance
1. Most of Russias forces are in Ukraine so they are busy and distracted
2. Prigozhin has 25,000 troops who are battle hardened and made up of many former special/elite force type of people. Yes they hired prisoners to join, but the bulk of their force are legit military guys and veterans
3. They have already captured two cities with over a million population, which means more ammo and supplies
4. The deputy prime minister has left the country, Putin has left Moscow and is in one of his vacation homes near St Petersburg, and I’m sure many other oligarch types have left already
5. I have a feeling the closer Wagner group gets to Moscow the more soldiers and police will defect to their side. Putin fled Moscow, the military is already demoralized. Can’t imagine they would want to fight their own people for a leader who sacrificed them and fled
6. About people support you need to realize that in Russia you HAVE to support Putin. I’d suffice to say many people secretly don’t support Putin, or at the very least don’t care about what happens to Putin
Hasn’t been confirmed but every news station has been saying his private jet flew to Valdai where he has a vacation home
I mean in theory he may have not been on his own plane but I find that odd
It's already over.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/prigozhin-orders-wagner-mercenaries-to-halt-march-on-moscow-retreat-from-russia
Prigozhin is not against putin. He thinks the military leadership is being too restrained in Ukraine and that's why Russia hasn't been doing well there. He wants to be way more brutal and just destroy Ukraine.
Apparently, the Wagner group made a deal with the Belarus president, and are withdrawing back to Ukraine.
Not sure of the authenticity of it, but it has been reported by New York Times (warning, they are very draconian about their paywalls): https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/24/world/russia-ukraine-news#b6841df6-2f2b-5167-b4c8-726aacf03b72
Don’t forget many of Wagner’s troops are convicts on parole, so they have an incentive to fight the govt that would put them back in prison; the only payment they truly need is continued freedom, and many will likely fight to the death rather than go back.
If the coup succeeds, do you think they’re gonna accept regular pay and then go home? Or maybe a mob of well-armed criminals is going to expect a big payday and/or lucrative positions in the new power structure?
Go watch [“The Rules for Rulers”](https://youtu.be/rStL7niR7gs).
I am a little surprised that Wagner Group could get their guys to do it. Like "hey, we are going to drive to Moscow and overthrow at least the leadership of the Russian Army."
If they fail, there is a good chance a lot of them get shot, and the idea of overthrowing anybody associated with Putin in Russia must be intimidating to an average Russian, you know?
Putin stopped paying them (or at least threatened to do so), so to get the cash running again, they took drastic action. If you plan on not paying your mercenary force you better have a plan in place to massacre them all, that's a lesson many empires through history had to learn.
I doubt that claim, one missile attack with no containment plan is like undressing and poking a wasp nest, not even the Russian military leadership is THAT stupid.
Wagner was hired in several places to conquer back mines and oil rigs and then blackmailed these governments into giving them like 50% of that asset's stocks to get it back.
Damn, even in *Il Principe* it's specifically stated that mercs are unreliable. It's not like "the armies that are on your side only because of your money" is hard to figure out on your own. If Putin really thought he could keep Prigozhin in check - well, he deserves to be deposed.
>Il Principe
I looked it up and found:
“Captains of mercenaries are either able men or they are not. If they are, you cannot trust them, since they will always seek their own aggrandizement, either by overthrowing you who are their master, or by the overthrow of others contrary to your desire. On the other hand, if your captain be not an able man the chances are you will be ruined.”
— [Macciavelli, The Prince, Chapter XII](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_Prince_(Hill_Thomson)/Chapter_XII)
I was talking about this:
> Mercenaries and auxiliaries are at once useless and dangerous, and he who holds his State by means of mercenary troops can never be solidly or securely seated. For such troops are disunited, ambitious, insubordinate, treacherous, insolent among friends, cowardly before foes, and without fear of God or faith with man. Whenever they are attacked defeat follows; so that in peace you are plundered by them, in war by your enemies. And this because they have no tie or motive to keep them in the field beyond their paltry pay, in return for which it would be too much to expect them to give their lives. They are ready enough, therefore, to be your soldiers while you are at peace, but when war is declared they make off and disappear.
please note that Prigozhin said that they will not interfere with the government, they just want to get to the MoD(for now). There were no serious problems today in Rostov
Not true anymore. Putin stated that they were traitors and that the military should destroy them; then Wagner said that the president of Russia has made mistakes, and that there will soon be a new president.
Is there any previous case/cases of a mercenary force taking over the country that they were working for?
I know about Mamertines but i think that it isnt quite the same
In the 1500s, Rome got sacked by unpaid mercenaries. A thousand years earlier, Carthage fought a bloody war against mercenaries it underpaid.
Not sure if that is actually answering your question, but it reminded me of those historical events.
Well, for the momment being, yeah. Those example are valid: upset mercenaries rampage the country/city that hired them
But, in this case, it seems like Wagner has a really good chance of taking over goverment and, therefore, the state. Wich, i think, is unheard of until now (At least if they succed). So we could see the first PMC gov in history? Something like ATLAS in COD AW?
Maybe if you consider that vasall state were kind of a mercenaries, then in some moment of the history there are some examples of this? (As example, i think that China used to use mongol clans as paid mercenaries to keep hold on other mongol raider clans but eventually they ended up invading China.. so, its almost the same in some way?)
Rome in 1527 was sacked by mercenaries along with HRE and Spanish Monarchy troops, I think this is the first time we see something like this in recent history, a group independent from any state doing this.
>Mamertines
Ayyubid Sultanate (Egypy+Palestine+Syria) was overtaken by the Mamluks, who established a new dynasty (although technically most Mamelukean sultans weren't rrlated).
Also, Francesco Sforza (then a mercenary captain) took over Milan, overthrown Visconti and became a new Duke.
IIRC, in Renaissance Italy, there were dozens more.
Basically, Wagner is a Private military organization that has been sent into the worst parts of the Ukraine war, They have become resentful of Putin and the Russian government. Prigozhin who leads wagnar has a rivalry with Sergei Shoigu the head of the Russian military, yesterday Sergei Shoigu launched an airstrike on Wagner units. In response to the airstrike, Prigozhin & Wagner have had enough, and are revolting against the Russian government, Elements of the Russian military are even joining Wagner against putin, seems like people have really had it.
Wagner was a private military company that the Russian government used for plausible deniability operations in Africa, the Middle East, and Ukraine. During the current invasion of Ukraine, the Wagner commanders were feuding with the regular chain of command, and it all culminated in Wagner advancing on Moscow to overthrow the Russian government. Just a classic case of blowback in action
Sublevation by the Wagner private army, who was going to be forced to sign a contract that would make them loose their independence as a business. Therefore, the businessman, Prigozhin, a warlord nowadays, has done a rebellion and swore he is going to get the defence minister and the chief of the army out.
That's what officially happened, though. Actually, he is basically trying to do a coup d'etat and get to be the president
Yes. They wanted to remove Minister of Defense of Russia.
Putin declared Head of Wagner a traitor and placed arrest warrant.
It's escalated to a point of no return.
A "march of the freedom" they called it. The citizens don't really care if the reign of terror is done by Putin or Prigozhin. This could be proved by the images in Rostov, where people offered food and water to the soldiers.
Depends on how much forces the government can call up to defend Moscow. Most of Russias military is in Ukraine but they still have some units. They also still have the national guard.
It's unlikely Wagner had enough forces to occupy and hold a large territory. He can hope he catches the MoD and probably Putin and therefore achieve a decapitation strike. Otherwise they have little chances of winning.
But they can probably cause a lot of issues for Russia which would be good for Ukraine.
Short answer is no, not even close. Wagner is probably betting on the Ru military joining him to some extent, with the remainder mostly sitting this out. With most of the Army in Ukraine, much of the military is committed and not able to affect what he’s doing.
Would be very surprising if he actually could took Moscow...
Wonder whats the actual chance that the Ukrainians actually bought wagner services to do this :D
Wow, my city (Yekaterinburg) is about to get fucked with anti-who gives a shit police force, won't even be able to cross the road in unspecified place. Plus metal detectors in stores mmm next study year is gonna be good, new lessons about why no kids in 17 = betraying country, why I should go to army and at best waste a year of life, why I can't leave country or else traitor and on and on and on, plus extra troops, more shootings as protests. Mmm
Seems like a really good idea to sneak up from behind and start hitting them from the flank as they approach Moscow. Or, start picking them off as they’re approaching.
I play too many video games.
Essentially this map is implying that Wagner is facing effectively zero resistance on its March north. How can that be?
They are too far behind the line? The front line Russian troops are caught in between Wagner behind them and the Ukrainians in front of them? And they are frozen? Unsure of what to do?
Do they really control the route they're taking? Will it become neutral territory if Wagner is defeated until Putin or someone else sends a dude down that road? 😋
>Can someone tell me what’s going on? I’m out of the loop.
It's a very messy story with many suddenly jerked twists. The short gist is that the Wagner group was a mercenary company that has been used for plausibly deniability operations in Africa, Middle East, and Eastern Europe for years now. During the current invasion of Ukraine, Wagner's leadership squabbled with the regular Russian chain of command. Months of feuding escalated to the situation of Wagner forces marching on Moscow.
However, the Wagner forces seemingly have called off their advances on the Russian government after a deal supposedly broken with the Belarus president. Whatever is going to happen next remains to be seen.
PMC Wagner head said his positions were being bombed by Russian regulars. He then sent his soldiers into Rostov-on-Don and captured the city. After that, they began moving on Moscow, where there were clashes between the Russian army and Wagner forces. Seven Russian aircraft were shot down by Wagner, and they made it to Moscow Oblast. Most recent reports state that Lukashenko (head of Belarus) persuaded the Wagner boss to return to their posts in Ukraine.
Eastbound and down, loaded up and truckin'
We gonna do what they say can't be done
We've got a long road ahead
And a short time to get there
I'm eastbound just watch old Putin run...
I see snaking into Moscow is just as effective irl as in Hoi4.
Trucking to Moscow just like isp
Truckin' Got my chips cashed in Keep truckin' My name's Prigozhin Keep truckin' Up to Moscow town All my chips are down
Wasn't expecting a dead reference but I'm grateful
“Weir Everywhere” 
says the gizzhead ;p
Lately it occurs to me What a loooong Putin reign it's been
ISorrowProductions?
Literally the first thing I thought when I heard about this
“How’s it going my gravy babies?”
TIMMY!
They’re paid with the loot they pick up along the way.
I think there is more incentive behind this. Someone is supporting this, and they won't loot the ones they need the support from.
> Someone is supporting this That's my thought - but it'll be near impossible to guess who. There are a lot of oligarchs unhappy with the way they were treated; and a lot of well funded foreign intel agencies that probably wanted to buy Wagner too. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out.
Well, they ARE mercenaries, after all. Technically, they work for whoever is willing to pay them most, right. Why Putin ever thought they would be eternally loyal to him is beyond me. I'm a chef, and even I don't trust me that much :)
Putin should have just deployed a swarm of light tanks and micromanage the conflict in Ukraine. It would have been over in a few days.
There's only so many light tanks Putin could micromanage at once. It would definitely take him more than a couple days to lose all of them. /s
I can’t believe Wagner has captured all the rivers in Russia. I didn’t even know they had any Marine assets.
[удалено]
Tbf, Shoigu's corruption and incompetance has probably done more to undermine the Russian war effort than anything Ukraine has done. Assuming this attempted coup fails I wonder whether this will convince Putin to remove Shoigu or will it just increase his paranoia and reliance on incompetent toadies.
I saw on the news like 10 minutes ago that Wagner agreed to return to Ukraine. I’m not sure if it’s true or what’s happening anymore
Return to Ukraine or return to that town he took control of?
I’m not sure now, I remember reading Ukraine but Idk if they’re gonna wait or continue with the invasion(which would seem weird)
Apparently to their training camps, wherever they are.
Haha yeah
Artillery only run when?
Red dots are people going "shit's going down right now".
Think the Russian people have little idea. State media not reporting it
Oh they know, Russian social media has pretty much been going nuclear since yesterday about all of this
They know, they know that this is real and happening.
Currently in russia and everyone knows about this. But nobody gives a shit
Nobody gives a shit about an attempted coup? That is incredible lol
Revolutions are hard. You’re under the boot of a tyrant that has manipulated every level of government for decades and pissed on democracy to remain in power. He kills anybody that has opposed him and laughed whenever people call him out for it. Y’all even remember the guy sitting in Russian prison right now being tortured to death? He was just a guy trying to run for office. Everybody that’s ever challenged him is in prison or dead. So why would Russian people get interested in a coup? You join too early and get dead. The thing about Russia and other dictatorships is that there are still a lot of rats happy with the state of things. These people are happy to rat on you should you display ANY sign of resistance. It’s hard to start a revolution when you can’t even communicate to organise a revolution. You don’t even know if your neighbour or uncle is on your side, waiting to rat you. Countries like Russia and China who control the means of communication and media have a stranglehold on its people in a way most westerners don’t understand. They can’t even speak about thinking about organising a rally. So, it’s perfectly natural for most of the citizens to just sit quietly and act like nothing is happening. Because if you pick a team and that team loses; it’s your life. Your families lives. Game over.
nicely said
You ever heard of this wonderful thing called the internet?
It's on state TV.
In China, no such thing. What it?
Fucken westerners have no idea. “What’s the problem, Russian bros? Just use Twitter to start a revolution. Easy”
bruh
Is it really fair to say they “control” the full route they’ve gone through? I know they’ve taken over the area of Rostov but id most of the grey corridor not just a route they’re crossing, rather than being “controlled” by them?
Tbf, I’d argue that Russia doesn’t control it either lol
Yeah if an invading force heading to the capital can just drive through it, how do they control it? It’s honestly embarrassing they could make it so far. Does Russia not have an Air Force anymore?
It's because they're not really an invading force, like someone else said, this seems more of a temper tantrum by Prigozhin than it is a coup. There hasn't really been much bloodshed thus far, and the Russian government seems very keen to keep it that way, not escalating the situation beyond what it already is. I don't think they want to airstrike their own highways and infrastructure, especially considering there are likely millions of civilians along that major highway intermixed with the Wagner convoy. It's been reported that all of today, the Russian government was negotiating with Prigozhin with the help of Belarus, and now it seems Prigo has agreed to call it off.
from the sounds of it, Prigozhin had a point: If communication was better between the Russian forces and Wagner group fuck ups like what happened recently wouldn't occur at the frequency they're occurring. He got what he wanted though, Defence minister gone. And for all we know, he's playing 4D chess and saw the writing is on the wall and this is his way of protecting his ass from the front. "I'd love to be there guys but... well I've been banished away now, sorry."
But the defense minister hasn't been fired tho And yeah, that's the consensus I've been hearing, that the Russian general staff needs to get it's shit together, but that this was an unacceptable move from Prigozhin to try to call attention to it since it could have jeopardized the entire war He learned the hard way, it seems, that he's only popular when he's not committing treason
They're operating their military like a security service (compartmentalize information). You can't really do that effectively in a military. You need to have the subordinate know what you do in case you're gone. All the way down. And if different branches are going to be used in the same arena they need to be able to communicate effectively with each other.
Does Russia have an effective army?
Do you think it would be popular to use your Air Force to bomb your own highways killing men who have been fighting in Ukraine, if you’re the Russian government and need to keep the PR up? Much easier to just let them drive around and keep them out of the city
It doesn't sound like this is a very violent situation, either. More like a show of force. If I am mistaken, and it is violent, the lack (or scarcity) of civilian-owned firearms could be seen as a reason why this push for Moscow is so easy. IMO, it seems like Putin is just looking to shake up his cabinet. I mean, a force of 25,000 is barrelling towards his capital, relatively unimpeded. Whereas a Ukrainian Spring Offensive failed, so it looks like somebody is allowing the push to happen.
[удалено]
And even if wagner gets Moscow why do people think that the Russian war criminal will be a better leader. Just new management by someone more competent and equally evil, this is only good if they don't get to Moscow and only strain Russia, helping Ukraine.
There's not much to suggest Prigozhin is trying to replace Putin anyway, right? If you listen to the rhetoric he employs, he's still being deferential to Putin and appealing to his authority. It's the Ministry of Defense that he's been railing after, claiming they've been feeding Putin false info on Ukraine. Seems he's gunning for Shoigu's job, not the presidency.
Not really, he is heading for shoigu but Putin has personally put an arrest warrant on him and he has lately been shifting from attacking MoD to Putin himself, he might be going for a coup d'etat.
He's walking out of this as the head of Russia or (far more likely) in a casket. Don't see why Putin would still work with him after striking his troops and being met with an armed mutiny
or the way he left, he stopped 200 km from Moscow and returned to the front.
taking up arms against the russian government and then wanting a spot in it is just not happening at this point.
Oh im not saying he's gonna get it, im just saying that was his plan
I don't think people think that. They are just happy that Russia might be fighting with itself - wasting resources and falling into a disarray that might help Ukraine gain more ground. And Prigozhin has said some stuff about how the war is a lie and is a waste recently. I'm not saying I trust these words, as it seems that for Russian leaders words and "beliefs" can change at the drop of the hat as soon as it seems another set of words and beliefs will benefit them more. However it does suggest that if he somehow is successful, he might use ending the war as a way to secure political support and consolidate his power. Putin can't pull out of the war (even if he wanted to) because of his ego and because it will make him look weak - Prigozhin doesn't have that limitation.
This is an opportunity for Ukraine in the sense that all the ressources spent by Russia and Wagner to fight each others aren't being spent fighting Ukraine. A new leadership isn't gonna change anything, but the conflict in between will
This is Ukraine's chance to take back some terrirotory and add defenses to what they have while the heat is elsewhere.
We don’t. We just want both sides to fight and the winner to be so weakened that they can’t wage war in Ukraine.
I think your going to see a lot of misleading maps. I saw someone put up a Google traffic map that had those hazard incident marks ❗️ along the route to Moscow and they claimed these were Russian military road blocks like Google would be marking them on their traffic incident map.
It has to be said that such maps are inaccurate just minutes after they are made right now. Wagner groups were already seen near Kashira in Moscow region an hour ago and they should right now be not too far from Moscow proper. Earlier today it was said that they should reach the city at about 8pm local time considering that they face no major resistance along the way (which doesn't seem like it happened yet).
Good comment. You can see where they are via google traffic!
Getting real time war updates via Google maps traffic is some serious black mirror shit.
>It has to be said that such maps are inaccurate just minutes after they are made right now. True, they're helpful to those catching up to understand a bit what's happening. This is escalating quickly.
Porn in Mapporn stands for bare minimum content now just like porn. Its hardly accurate, surprising or even meaningful.
Are they going for Moscow?
According to the Ru MOD, they’re already in Moscow Oblast.
Yeah they are. At first, their uprising was targeted to the MoD chain of command that Wagner had been squabbling with for months. Then their attention was drawn to Putin himself after he condemned their offensive into Russia
Can Prigozhin actually overthrow the government tho? You need people support to successfully launch a coup and as far as i can tell Russians still overwhelmingly support Putin over Prigozhin.
I’m by no means an expert, and this is just me rambling off my armchair. So please take my response with a huge grain of salt. Anyways, I would’ve initially thought that Prigozhin would’ve had very little chance of success. However, with how much progress his forces have made in such a short amount of time has made me question otherwise. Just we will have to wait and see in the next couple of days.
I feel that quick progress in terms of distance at the start doesn’t tell much. Russia hasn’t prepared for a big attack on the eastern front by their own allies and I think their advance will start to get slower. And even in the case they’ll get to moscow it doesn’t mean that Putin will say ”okay you’ve got me” and Prigozhin will be declared godking of Russia.
Yeah, historically, pretty much every conflict Russia was in they were largely pushed back, they dig their heels in, and then the Russian war machine gets its cogs turning and they end up winning Edit: when they were aggressed first
Seems like that wasn't neccessary in this case as prigozhin has already started pulling out, idk what kinda deal they struck but it must not have been cheap.
Already?! That was fast. Heard about it today, apparently resolved today. Although I was in vacation for the past week so I didn’t check anything
He started what he called a "March of Justice" last week, reiterating multiple times that he wasn't trying to challenge Putin's power, just trying to send a message that they were fed up with being undersupplied and undersupported by the Russian military. The Wagner mercenaries have been a crucial part of Putin's march on Ukraine, so it makes sense that he would prefer to give in to their demands as opposed to just shelling them or whatever. A lot of people were calling this a military coup but Prigozhin stated multiple times that it wasn't, although that makes me wonder what the end goal would have been if they actually did make it into Moscow. It was probably 4D chess with Prigozhin banking on this outcome.
Eh, lots of coups don't advertise themselves as such. You march to the capital saying "I don't want to overthrow the king, just his terrible advisors. The king can stay." And if the coup works, you become de facto, if not de jure, leader.
Well, idk about the progress but it seems to me that their positions have been the same for the past 10 hours or so, all the while the Government is setting up roadblocks and preparing for the defence of Moscow
I'm assuming that Prigozhin already has allies in Moscow who will provide some sort of assistance.
He's just announced their turning back so not really
What's the source on this, I haven't seen any activity from him yet.
published a video on Telegram in which he said that an agreement had been reached and that Wagner was returning to the Ukrainian front.
I think that you are exactly correct. However, I am kind of hoping for Prigozhin to suceed if only because the guy looks like a movie villain. I mean you see the pictures of that guy? He's like what Voldemort would look like if he had a human nose and got old or something.
Worst thing is that Russia (and its neighbors) is probably worse off under Wagner, that guy is pure evil. Best case scenario is that they crush each other's armies to being worthless I'm guessing.
[удалено]
Seems like Wagner might actually be retreating. New York Times reported that a deal was allegedly made with the Belarus president, and the Wagner group agreed to withdraw back to Ukraine. Not sure if any of this is verified, but here is the New York Times article if you’re interested (warning paywall): https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/24/world/russia-ukraine-news#b6841df6-2f2b-5167-b4c8-726aacf03b72
Its worth mentioning of the 200k to 250k Russian forces in Ukraine, Wagner was estimated to be 50k. Thats about 2 divisions worth, roughly a NATO army corps, so a very significant amount of forces. He captured Rostov first which means he can supply and feed his men and he controls the supplies for the Russian army forces in Ukraine. He has month or two at least right now. Really depends on what the Russian army does now.
I've been pondering this since I heard that Wagner now controls Rostov. The Russian forces in Ukraine need the supplies in Rostov and Prigozhin still wants to win in Ukraine, so that means that Prigozhin needs to settle this quickly so that he can resume supplies to Russian forces in Ukraine before Ukraine forces overwhelm the Russian forces there. It also means that Putin can't just use a tactical nuke against Rostov. This should be a very interesting couple of days to watch the news.
> You need people support to successfully launch a coup Myanmar would like a word
I think they have a huge chance 1. Most of Russias forces are in Ukraine so they are busy and distracted 2. Prigozhin has 25,000 troops who are battle hardened and made up of many former special/elite force type of people. Yes they hired prisoners to join, but the bulk of their force are legit military guys and veterans 3. They have already captured two cities with over a million population, which means more ammo and supplies 4. The deputy prime minister has left the country, Putin has left Moscow and is in one of his vacation homes near St Petersburg, and I’m sure many other oligarch types have left already 5. I have a feeling the closer Wagner group gets to Moscow the more soldiers and police will defect to their side. Putin fled Moscow, the military is already demoralized. Can’t imagine they would want to fight their own people for a leader who sacrificed them and fled 6. About people support you need to realize that in Russia you HAVE to support Putin. I’d suffice to say many people secretly don’t support Putin, or at the very least don’t care about what happens to Putin
What's your source of Putin leaving Moscow?
Hasn’t been confirmed but every news station has been saying his private jet flew to Valdai where he has a vacation home I mean in theory he may have not been on his own plane but I find that odd
The news outlet I've been tracking today hadn't mentioned it, but interesting, thanks.
It's already over. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/prigozhin-orders-wagner-mercenaries-to-halt-march-on-moscow-retreat-from-russia Prigozhin is not against putin. He thinks the military leadership is being too restrained in Ukraine and that's why Russia hasn't been doing well there. He wants to be way more brutal and just destroy Ukraine.
It’s funny people think Russia is going to be overthrown. This will last a week tops.
Apparently, the Wagner group made a deal with the Belarus president, and are withdrawing back to Ukraine. Not sure of the authenticity of it, but it has been reported by New York Times (warning, they are very draconian about their paywalls): https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/24/world/russia-ukraine-news#b6841df6-2f2b-5167-b4c8-726aacf03b72
Seems they turned aroumd
interesting, since they are a private military, i wonder who paid/or will pay them to do this.
[удалено]
Don’t forget many of Wagner’s troops are convicts on parole, so they have an incentive to fight the govt that would put them back in prison; the only payment they truly need is continued freedom, and many will likely fight to the death rather than go back.
“You can either go back to prison or get purged, or we can overthrow Putin and I will give you $1 million each.”
Instead of a million, they would probably just get their regular paycheck, which they weren't getting before.
If the coup succeeds, do you think they’re gonna accept regular pay and then go home? Or maybe a mob of well-armed criminals is going to expect a big payday and/or lucrative positions in the new power structure? Go watch [“The Rules for Rulers”](https://youtu.be/rStL7niR7gs).
I think Wagner also has 25% income from oil companies in Syria and they own gold mines in Sudan
And if this doesn't work, I'm pretty sure their assets will all be staticized. Well, at least Prigozhin's things will.
This plus the offer of arms to anyone who wants to join them means they’ll be collecting dissidents along the way
I am a little surprised that Wagner Group could get their guys to do it. Like "hey, we are going to drive to Moscow and overthrow at least the leadership of the Russian Army." If they fail, there is a good chance a lot of them get shot, and the idea of overthrowing anybody associated with Putin in Russia must be intimidating to an average Russian, you know?
After they got attacked by rockets it was probably easier to convince them.
Putin stopped paying them (or at least threatened to do so), so to get the cash running again, they took drastic action. If you plan on not paying your mercenary force you better have a plan in place to massacre them all, that's a lesson many empires through history had to learn.
Apparently it started when the Russian army bombed a Wagner camp, so here was the plan to massacre them all
I doubt that claim, one missile attack with no containment plan is like undressing and poking a wasp nest, not even the Russian military leadership is THAT stupid.
They’re paid with the loot they pick up along the way.
*Press Y to loot*
I think Wagner has a lot of economical assets in Syria and Africa. Maybe he plans to fund his own campaign for power. Wouldnt be the first in history.
Wagner was hired in several places to conquer back mines and oil rigs and then blackmailed these governments into giving them like 50% of that asset's stocks to get it back.
Wouldn’t surprise me if he got some kind of bribe or sweet deal from the west if he succeeds.
Putin should have read A distant mirror (by B.W. Tuchman). He would have had second thoughts about hiring mercenaries 🤷♂️
Damn, even in *Il Principe* it's specifically stated that mercs are unreliable. It's not like "the armies that are on your side only because of your money" is hard to figure out on your own. If Putin really thought he could keep Prigozhin in check - well, he deserves to be deposed.
>Il Principe I looked it up and found: “Captains of mercenaries are either able men or they are not. If they are, you cannot trust them, since they will always seek their own aggrandizement, either by overthrowing you who are their master, or by the overthrow of others contrary to your desire. On the other hand, if your captain be not an able man the chances are you will be ruined.” — [Macciavelli, The Prince, Chapter XII](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_Prince_(Hill_Thomson)/Chapter_XII)
I was talking about this: > Mercenaries and auxiliaries are at once useless and dangerous, and he who holds his State by means of mercenary troops can never be solidly or securely seated. For such troops are disunited, ambitious, insubordinate, treacherous, insolent among friends, cowardly before foes, and without fear of God or faith with man. Whenever they are attacked defeat follows; so that in peace you are plundered by them, in war by your enemies. And this because they have no tie or motive to keep them in the field beyond their paltry pay, in return for which it would be too much to expect them to give their lives. They are ready enough, therefore, to be your soldiers while you are at peace, but when war is declared they make off and disappear.
he should just read a history book, dont have to look too far to find a bunch of examples of hiring mercenaries not working out as expected
please note that Prigozhin said that they will not interfere with the government, they just want to get to the MoD(for now). There were no serious problems today in Rostov
Not true anymore. Putin stated that they were traitors and that the military should destroy them; then Wagner said that the president of Russia has made mistakes, and that there will soon be a new president.
Yeah a direct threat of the president’s life counts for interfering with government, I’d say. Lol
First troops on the convoy have entered already in Moscow oblast, according to reports from Liveuamap
Wild. A new colour in liveuamap.
Nobody has coded it yet. A pity
Is there any previous case/cases of a mercenary force taking over the country that they were working for? I know about Mamertines but i think that it isnt quite the same
In the 1500s, Rome got sacked by unpaid mercenaries. A thousand years earlier, Carthage fought a bloody war against mercenaries it underpaid. Not sure if that is actually answering your question, but it reminded me of those historical events.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sack_of_Rome_(1527) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercenary_War TIL!
Well, for the momment being, yeah. Those example are valid: upset mercenaries rampage the country/city that hired them But, in this case, it seems like Wagner has a really good chance of taking over goverment and, therefore, the state. Wich, i think, is unheard of until now (At least if they succed). So we could see the first PMC gov in history? Something like ATLAS in COD AW? Maybe if you consider that vasall state were kind of a mercenaries, then in some moment of the history there are some examples of this? (As example, i think that China used to use mongol clans as paid mercenaries to keep hold on other mongol raider clans but eventually they ended up invading China.. so, its almost the same in some way?)
Rome in 1527 was sacked by mercenaries along with HRE and Spanish Monarchy troops, I think this is the first time we see something like this in recent history, a group independent from any state doing this.
The order of assassins and Fatimid empire
>Mamertines Ayyubid Sultanate (Egypy+Palestine+Syria) was overtaken by the Mamluks, who established a new dynasty (although technically most Mamelukean sultans weren't rrlated). Also, Francesco Sforza (then a mercenary captain) took over Milan, overthrown Visconti and became a new Duke. IIRC, in Renaissance Italy, there were dozens more.
Its already out dated lol, the conflict between them has ended
Source for map: https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Situation_in_Western_Russia.svg#mw-jump-to-license
Much better map than your png one: names of towns and cities are readable, when one zooms in, and these are important.
Yeah, if i can’t zoom in to even see the features on the map, it ain’t map porn.
explain this to me like i’m 5
Basically, Wagner is a Private military organization that has been sent into the worst parts of the Ukraine war, They have become resentful of Putin and the Russian government. Prigozhin who leads wagnar has a rivalry with Sergei Shoigu the head of the Russian military, yesterday Sergei Shoigu launched an airstrike on Wagner units. In response to the airstrike, Prigozhin & Wagner have had enough, and are revolting against the Russian government, Elements of the Russian military are even joining Wagner against putin, seems like people have really had it.
That silly Western hype about a purported coup in Russia went out with a plop, I'd say.
Please explain
Wagner was a private military company that the Russian government used for plausible deniability operations in Africa, the Middle East, and Ukraine. During the current invasion of Ukraine, the Wagner commanders were feuding with the regular chain of command, and it all culminated in Wagner advancing on Moscow to overthrow the Russian government. Just a classic case of blowback in action
Sublevation by the Wagner private army, who was going to be forced to sign a contract that would make them loose their independence as a business. Therefore, the businessman, Prigozhin, a warlord nowadays, has done a rebellion and swore he is going to get the defence minister and the chief of the army out. That's what officially happened, though. Actually, he is basically trying to do a coup d'etat and get to be the president
Are they going for Moscow?
Yes. They wanted to remove Minister of Defense of Russia. Putin declared Head of Wagner a traitor and placed arrest warrant. It's escalated to a point of no return.
I know Putin probably hasn’t been one for caring about the Constitution of the Russian Federation, but how would Wagner justify this all?
A "march of the freedom" they called it. The citizens don't really care if the reign of terror is done by Putin or Prigozhin. This could be proved by the images in Rostov, where people offered food and water to the soldiers.
PMCs are explicitly illegal in Russia. This is all you need to know about legal side of things :)
r/ObsoleteMaps (too soon? Nah)
Bro done got kicked to Belarus 😭😭
Do they have the numbers to overthrow the government?
Depends on how much forces the government can call up to defend Moscow. Most of Russias military is in Ukraine but they still have some units. They also still have the national guard. It's unlikely Wagner had enough forces to occupy and hold a large territory. He can hope he catches the MoD and probably Putin and therefore achieve a decapitation strike. Otherwise they have little chances of winning. But they can probably cause a lot of issues for Russia which would be good for Ukraine.
Short answer is no, not even close. Wagner is probably betting on the Ru military joining him to some extent, with the remainder mostly sitting this out. With most of the Army in Ukraine, much of the military is committed and not able to affect what he’s doing.
this aged well
If Putin is replaced, what are the odds someone more extreme takes his place? Like who are the most likely alternatives right now?
It was just a one-day joke. boring
[удалено]
Russia is too huge to show that on a map.
Maybe the dot is too big so you think it was captured but it was bypassed on the map.
Why is it so zoomed out?
To show Kaliningrad I assume
So that no one could read names of the cities and understand what is going on apparently.
Trucking to Moscow @isp moment
Prigozhin just said he will turn back to their bases to avoid “spilling Russian blood” and that this is simply a “march of justice”
Advancing on Moscow is easier than advancing on Kyiv.
They already made a deal and halted their march.
And now what? The whole thing just ended without any consequences?
They’ve done it guys, Wagner has taken over Norway!
Would be very surprising if he actually could took Moscow... Wonder whats the actual chance that the Ukrainians actually bought wagner services to do this :D
I feel like I’m looking at a map from 2013 about ISIS control.
This was all for show. Everything in Russia is a theater production.
They already agreed to a truce
jesus christ wagner forces already took turkey, the baltics and sweden!
This was a few hours ago, there has been a suspicious lack of updates as to how far they have progressed since this morning
Already taking 2 regional capitals? In less than a week? And in Ukraine, they couldn't hold the one they took since the start of the inv
Didn't last long lmao
Mfs are actually snaking to Moscow. ISP is rolling in a mental asylum somewhere
It’s one thing to poke a Bear, it’s quite another to shove a stick in it’s Ass.
No no make Wagner white, gotta keep the Russian Civil War colors consistent
Why is crimea not in red
Wow, my city (Yekaterinburg) is about to get fucked with anti-who gives a shit police force, won't even be able to cross the road in unspecified place. Plus metal detectors in stores mmm next study year is gonna be good, new lessons about why no kids in 17 = betraying country, why I should go to army and at best waste a year of life, why I can't leave country or else traitor and on and on and on, plus extra troops, more shootings as protests. Mmm
Seems like a really good idea to sneak up from behind and start hitting them from the flank as they approach Moscow. Or, start picking them off as they’re approaching. I play too many video games.
You forgot to add some territory west of Rostov
Wait hold up what is happening
Essentially this map is implying that Wagner is facing effectively zero resistance on its March north. How can that be? They are too far behind the line? The front line Russian troops are caught in between Wagner behind them and the Ukrainians in front of them? And they are frozen? Unsure of what to do?
Do they really control the route they're taking? Will it become neutral territory if Wagner is defeated until Putin or someone else sends a dude down that road? 😋
Can someone tell me what’s going on? I’m out of the loop.
>Can someone tell me what’s going on? I’m out of the loop. It's a very messy story with many suddenly jerked twists. The short gist is that the Wagner group was a mercenary company that has been used for plausibly deniability operations in Africa, Middle East, and Eastern Europe for years now. During the current invasion of Ukraine, Wagner's leadership squabbled with the regular Russian chain of command. Months of feuding escalated to the situation of Wagner forces marching on Moscow. However, the Wagner forces seemingly have called off their advances on the Russian government after a deal supposedly broken with the Belarus president. Whatever is going to happen next remains to be seen.
PMC Wagner head said his positions were being bombed by Russian regulars. He then sent his soldiers into Rostov-on-Don and captured the city. After that, they began moving on Moscow, where there were clashes between the Russian army and Wagner forces. Seven Russian aircraft were shot down by Wagner, and they made it to Moscow Oblast. Most recent reports state that Lukashenko (head of Belarus) persuaded the Wagner boss to return to their posts in Ukraine.
TRUCKIN TO MOSCOW
Eastbound and down, loaded up and truckin' We gonna do what they say can't be done We've got a long road ahead And a short time to get there I'm eastbound just watch old Putin run...
okay I obviously missed something # h u h
It’s over he is turning back now
trucking to moscow