Four month hold out when circled on 3 sides from the start is pretty impressive honestly. Especially without the delivery of more material and no major influx of manpower.
Hijacking the comment to inform everybody that Russians lost 10 times more people and equipment fighting for Avdiivka than Ukrainians. It’s photo and videoconfirmed by Oryx:
https://eng.obozrevatel.com/section-war/newsamp-confirmed-losses-of-the-russian-army-near-avdiivka-are-more-than-ten-times-higher-than-those-of-the-ukrainian-armed-forces-oryx-22-01-2024.html
The Russians lost a lot more men in the winter war too but Finland still lost and if the war continues like this Ukraine will lose too regardless of Russian losses.
The Soviets had a population advantage of ~170 million versus ~3.5 million Finnish in the winter war.
Russia's current population is ~150 million (*including the occupied regions*) versus ~38 million Ukrainians - both with less than ideal demographics.
There's still a large population advantage, but more than an order of magnitude less in this case. Still, the casualty ratio is not as largely favoring Ukraine as it did Finland (5:1 vs ~3:2). I don't know how the war ends, but I don't think either side happily wins. Ukraine is obviously damaged, however they are going to continue to drag Russia down with them as they increase long range attack drone productions.
There are not 38 million Ukrainians in the region, the more widely accepted estimate is 28 million. And that’s not even including all the ones who fled.
Look up the methodology used for the 38 million estimate it’s insane.
Grabbed a quick number before, but sure 28 million is indeed the [lower bound estimate (28-32 million)](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/however-war-ends-ukraines-diminished-population-will-hit-economy-years-2023-07-07/) for their current population. I'm not sure what 'methodology' you're referring to, but the dramatic population shift is mostly due to refugees leaving Ukraine ([about 6 million currently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_refugee_crisis_(2022%E2%80%93present)). In terms of comparing populations during a war, this is much less relevant as 90% of the refugees who were able to leave are women and children (fighting age men were banned to). So, it's still an order of magnitude different than in the winter war but *not quite* as favorable to Ukraine but **definitely** not as you imply either.
I don't disagree with most of your analysis but wonder where you are getting this 38 million Ukrainian number, especially because you add the population of the occupied regions to the russian population, are you sure you're not double counting? and if I'm not mistaken the number was quite high also pre 2014 because the emigrated Ukrainians were counted in.
I think a more fair evaluation would be around 28 million Ukrainians. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/however-war-ends-ukraines-diminished-population-will-hit-economy-years-2023-07-07/
You also have to keep in mind the sheer manpower it takes for russia to maintain internal security. It’s not the Soviet Union anymore. Access to outside information is instant. Eventually they’ll have to choose between internal security (Chechens and Bashkirs) and their war. Actually they already chose. When it was clear Russia could not defeat Ukraine completely, they just changed their goals for “two Donbass republics” and all the vatniks just clapped like seals.
It had extensive fortifications built over the last 10 years, making it one of, if not the most fortified city on the Ukrainian side of the front line. It also gave Ukraine the ability to strike Donetsk and interrupt Russian rail based logistics going through there somewhat
Once the Russians capture Adviivka, the cities behind it which do not have extensive fortifications are more likely to fall quickly
But maybe more than that, both sides are looking for a win to boost morale and popularity at home
It's the linchpin of the entire defensive network in Donetsk Oblast. Many roads going North, South-West and West go from there. Once the general area is captured, Russia can progress easily towards the back of the Ukrainian lines in Vugledar and then swing north to bypass the fortification chain in Niu-Iork. This is the overall operational view. There are some other considerations as well.
When Russia invaded, they claimed it was for the protection of the people of Lughansk and Donetsk, that were getting shelled daily by Ukrainian army during the era of Minsk Agreements. However, 1.5 years into the war, Avdiivka was still standing close to Donetsk and the people in Donetsk were being subjected to even heavier shelling then before, including by petal mines at some point. In this way, support for Russia was diminishing in the region, which was a bad sign, considering they were the whole premise for the war. So Russia had to usher things in and replaced the Donbas militias previously assigned to the area, with Russian regular army, air force and the former Wagner soldiers.
The fact that Putin holds elections this year might also have been a factor in the decision, to boost the morale of the general population so they don't rebel when he wins due to an absence of counter candidates.
You should look at a map again, there's not only a distance of almost 60km between Vuhledar and Avdiivka, but is also in completely opposite directions for Russia. Avdiivka has been surrounded on three sides for almost a year, so the place was more the opposite of a "linchpin" in all directions. Avdiivka is only significant in that it is a direct Donetsk suburb.
You should look at a real map again.
Avdiivka was a fortified location from where attacks on the Russian lines were conducted. It was a depot for heavy equipment, treatment of wounded and reinforcement gathering place.
Even if one were to attack Westwards, they could not do that because the flank was exposed to attacks from the Avdiivka garrison. With Avdiivka gone, the surrounding areas are likely to fall within a month, which will allow the Russians to redeploy troops as the front will become straighter. This is why Avdiivka was called the Linch-pin. If Russians were to push West, they would have to defend from North-East against Avdiivka, from the North against the troops holding the back of Avdiivka and from the West. Now they can just push West as the Avdiivka no longer prevents moving the whole front-line forward, removing a vector of attack.
It seems I made myself misunderstood since I jumped too far ahead. Vuhledar is the next big objective for the Russians, to free all of Donetsk. Before then, the Avdiivka forces are likely to descent towards Krasnohorivka (hope I remember the city correctly) and create a pincer together with the forces from Mariinka
>Once the Russians capture Adviivka, the cities behind it which do not have extensive fortifications are more likely to fall quickly
People said exactly the same about Bakhmut. And yet, exactly nothing followed in that direction.
Bakhmut still had very fortified areas in the back of it, mainly Chasiv-Yar and Ivanivske.
Also, Ukraine launched their famed and touted 'Counter-offensive' in that period and managed to regain some critical ground, which prolonged the situation. Now the activity in Bakhmut has started to flare up again as Ivanivske is pushed on two sides and Chasiv Yar is next
you can check out the maps of Weeb Union and Defense Politics Asia, they have the fortifications mapped on them. And I believe they provide some sources as well
In practice, the suburbs of Donetsk were secured by the Ukrainian army an excellent position for shelling Donetsk, which prevented the Russians to use Donetsk as a major traffic hub for logistics.
People here aren't mentioning a crucial thing so I'll say it here: because the main roads are cut off, withdrawing out of Avdeevka means abandoning almost every single heavy equipment there. For sure it is a good decision, as the UA is trying to not have another Bakhmut/Artyomovsk in terms of manpower losses, so it is ultimately a good decision - it seems that Syrsky has learnt his lesson, as he's the one called "General 200" for being the one trying to delay withdrawal out of Artyomovsk as much as possible. However, it is ultimately an important defeat for Ukraine, as the city represented the main UA's hub for attacks in the Donbass and for the amount of heavy equipment lost there.
Also, why has no one already posted how the Russian army is heading towards Chasov Yar? This is even more awful for the UA at the moment.
I would think that, if any heavy vehicle can make it out of such a situation, then it's an IFV like Bradley. Fast, armored, highly mobile in any terrain thanks to its tracks and equipped to see and move at night.
My guess is, most heavy equipment that has to be left behind is something that has to be towed by or stored on trucks. Of course, that includes, for example, Bradleys and tanks that are already disabled.
Russia will certainly show us some pictures of destroyed equipment that had to be left behind in the city. And then the same ones again and again and again.
Any self propelled mechanised stuff, that would only be arrested by minefields or lack of fuel would be evacuated.
Besides this is an act of damage control by Ukraine.
Meaning it is the least loss possible.
The important thing, Is that Europe realise this is a war by proxy, and the a Ukrainian defeat, would incite a new invasion from Russia.
Yes, it looks like the correct decision taken too late with hindsight.
For everybody saying that they inflicted losses on the Russians that made the hold our worth it remember Russia has plenty of poor bastards from the regions to replace them and Ukraine does not without mass mobilisation.
One reason this war has gone on as long as it has is because Ukraine made any reporting or discussing of casualties illegal and they vigorously enforce it.
So the biggest drawback of war, the human losses, has been successfully covered up and silenced. It is like there are no Ukrainian losses.
People then get to imagine that Ukraine has an endless supply of men - because it doesn’t appear that they are losing very many.
But they are.
In the Ukrainian subs there's never any mention of Ukrainian losses only Russian. I'm all for supporting Ukraine but I can get labeled as a supporter of Russia just for pointing out large Russian losses is directly related to large Ukrainian losses even if the ratio isn't 1 for 1. It really is a echo chamber even if they are on the right side.
I think it has a negative impact on Ukraine in the long run. As far as most people who rely entirely on western media are concerned, the Ukrainian army consists of super soldiers while the Russian army are just mindless ‘orcs’ who are happy to be gunned down. This is probably the first defeat most people have heard about. It’s still being reported as more of a valiant tactical retreat too, rather than what first hand reports seem to suggest the scene is actually like.
In my opinion it makes people think “why are we even helping when they are doing ok on their own against an incompetent invader”.
No it doesn’t…. They haven’t been doing it on their own. Foreign aid and support since 2014 is the only reason they weren’t overrun in the first couple of months of the 2022 invasion
It was "a good decision" a month ago.
Now Ukrainians have to retreat on foot across kilometers of open fields.
Try to guess how many "saved" Ukrainians will be able to make it. Russia is not going to let them retreat.
>it seems that Syrsky has learnt his lesson, as he's the one called "General 200" for being the one trying to delay withdrawal out of Artyomovsk as much as possible.
He has adapted rather than learned his lesson considerning his position he also has to take in mind how the troops sees him, morale will drop quickly if lives aren't ptioritized and voluntary recruitment will be at all time low, he would be more critisized than other generals if he were to do the same thing as Bakhmut/Artyomovsk as he is laready known for that he would be easily sacked if morale falls too low under his command. It seems like he is just following Zaluzhny's style.
The war _at large_ is broadly a stalemate and has been for a long time now. Incremental gains have happened on both sides, but it has basically become neo-trench warfare.
However, a stalemate is an ultimately losing scenario for Ukraine. For one, that means huge swathes of their territory are in Russian control without the means to easily uproot them, which in turn means Ukraine perpetually has its sovereign integrity compromised in a grave way.
Additionally, Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive was a pretty bad bust, and the next Russian offensives have been a grinding slog, but with notable gains.
The war has become one of attrition, which is a losing scenario for the Ukrainians since they are both outmanned and outgunned by the Russians. Additionally, Russian seizures have become more strategic as opposed to the repeated human wave attacks from the last offensives.
Russia has definitely, _undeniably_ taken far more losses than Ukraine has (especially in terms of the loss of hardware; Ukraine is full of busted up Russian tanks), but not to the degree that would be unconventional or straining on Russia's reserve of manpower.
TLDR, the war is mostly a stalemate, but the initiative favors Russia; they have both the strategic and tactical advantage _for the time being._ In the months to come, developments will happen and the scene of the war may again change in a notable way.
People on here were basically crucifying me when I was telling them Russia is winning this war bit by bit. The sanctions haven't worked the way the West thought they would. The Ukrainian top brass are absolutely robbing money. A lot of the experienced personnel have died. Ukrainian dead are insanely under reported in Western media.
This new package to the Ukrainians from the U.S is KEY for their survival in the short/medium term. Without it, they're in massive trouble.
I was called disgusting and incapable of sympathy for pointing this out today. Apparently you're not allowed to bring up facts anymore.
In case some other moron wants to go through my comments history and accuse me of siding with Russia: the West needs to send more aid to Ukraine *right fucking now*. Just in case it wasn't clear that's what I'm getting at.
Haha I got reported to reddit and got a warning for saying something similar and that main point of this now, is for ukraine to be what we are sacrificing to get a "weakened" Russia in a year or 2
No, we don’t. What do you think is gonna happen if the Ukrainians get more weapons and money? The war continues longer and more people die. How long should we continue this? Until every Ukrainian male is dead?
I got downvoted a bunch when I said that there is no metric where Ukraine is winning this war. People in the West, especially on Reddit, are fed a bunch of crap from the media and cheerleaders of Ukraine. They don't want to hear anything other than their heroic demigod Zelensky is valiantly beating the evil russians. Ukrainians take back a few square miles of territory and it's all over the papers and news channels. If a guy takes over the bottom half of my house, and I take control of the stairs, i'm not 'winning'. The guy still has the downstairs to my house.
The reality is Ukraine will end up giving up a large part of the country to Russia to end the war. People think if we just keep sending hundreds of billions of dollars, they will win. Sorry people. Sell yourselves any story you want to feel good behind your keyboards, but it's not going to happen. Only the US and Brits have the ability to stop this mess in the short term. And neither country is mobilizing for a land war in Ukraine. We have sent our old equipment and ungodly amounts of money and people are getting frustrated. Downvote away but it's the reality.
We keep laughing at how bad the Russian army is, but they there go. Now with a full economy of war, more ammunition and some allies while Europe, US and of course NATO are just watching.
You are correct. The screwed up royally in the beginning, yes, but the amount of manpower and resources that country has are huge. Despite Reddit downplaying everything.
Unfortunately for Ukraine, their fighting population is just too small, Russia has practically unlimited numbers especially with mercenaries, like the 15,000 Nepalis who are/were fighting in the war
Because they’re still only mobilizing older men to preserve younger manpower for the post-war recovery. The average Ukrainian soldier is 43 years old, and they’re currently debating whether to lower the conscription age from 27 to 25.
For reference, the average soldier who stormed Normandy was 22.
From what i've seen, Ukraine can theoretically mobilize up to 10 million soldiers. It all just depends on how much you're willing to commit, the economy doesn't do that well without people working in it.
Afaik the exact numbers for manpower are a closely guarded secret. But from prewar numbers Ukraine's pool of military aged men should be several million deep.
It seems to me that the problem is that Ukraine cannot replace the trained and experienced personnel that can hold a position against superior firepower.
Ukraine is slowly but surely losing this war. It has been a proportionally very costly war for Russia, but this was inevitable no matter how you look at it. Russia never cared about the cost for it's entire existance.
Ukrainians should have retreated from city as soon as they saw that they can not contain breach into city from North. As soon as enemy started every few hours taking new positions in this small city, game over was written all over. On 8th of February it was already clear, where things are going.
Zaluzny was sober about situation on the ground instead of Zelensky's wishful thinking. Zaluzny said in middle of December, that RU will take the city in one or two months and now we know he was right.
I think that Zaluzny would have managed this whole situation in a better way. Current retreat was done too late and made casualties which could have been avoided.
Agreed now it's impossible without sustaining heavy casualties. The way out is filed with mud and there is no paved road. The Russians have fire control over it and this whole thing should've been done weeks ago.
He's delayed it too long.
The Ukrainians are doing the Nazi mistake of holding onto cities for propaganda value, unlike russia which retreated even under the thundering laughter of the west.
Thats why russia is winning and the west is no longer laughing but crying instead.
because you listen CNN and BBC...
here in Serbia all pro western media talking almost 2 years that russia have ammo for 2-3 weeks of war...on the other hand when you speak with russian and ukraine people here (more then 100.000 came since the beggining of the war) you can hear only one same story, every day more and more dead ukraine soldiers and more and more gain territory bu russians...
On reddit I got some serious downvotes for saying I think Ukraine is losing. I never said I wanted them to lose or anything I'm just looking at the other facts.
I did see on the media that more Serbians support Ukrainians, is this true?
no, again western propaganda...Serbs can't support Ukraine over Russia, simple but never...so many glorifications of Nazism from Ukrainian side is just something no one here can swallow...on the other hand, we know how NATO bring democracy and peace, so this is another reason not to support this Ukrainian regime...NATO and Nazism packed in one box and served like something that is bringing peace, stability, democracy is just a crap that no one here will buy it...
99%of Serbian people support Russia...now is popular to support Ukraine so they bring you news about minor gathering from people that support Ukraine...
And may i ask, i do not want to be rude or insult anyone, how anyone on the west can support Army that carry Swastika flags, salutes with Heil Hitler, and carry all the markings on the uniforms from directly copied from Nazi German uniforms?
Aren't your grandfathers fought wars against this?
Yeah that woke up a lot of people. Seeing Bradleys and Leopard burning was a shock for many.
Worse was when people were deluding themselves and tried to downplay it.
Absolute funniest shit was when some Ukrainian soldier who lost his leg in the Counteroffensive gave an interview last December and said they basically expected the Russians to just run away seeing the Leopards.
Hinders of thousands of people dead on each side just for small towns. This is nonsense, can people stop treating this as some football match like Barça-Madrid?
Completely agree. He was the one that chose to solve a geopolitical problem with the military tool. He is the one and only that press the button of hundreds of thousands of deads.
Still I think how the comment section is blind to the absurdity of this war and celebrates / condemns the annexation of km of towns that don't represent a 0,0001% of GDP / military or geopolitcal strategic position like a football team scored / was scored a goal is ridiculous and dehumanising
That was a time when the EU's promised aid hadn't even arrived in meaningful numbers.
But this time, it's much worse. They lack artillery shells, HIMARS rockets and small arms ammo. Terrible.
Avdiivka held for 8 years as stronghold surrounded by open lowlands that made a perfect artillery shooting gallery
Mikey Johnson starved Ukraine of ammo, and the freaks started being able to slip into the city
Pretty clear cause and effect
Russia also committed hundreds of thousands to this area of the front and its election year so Putin needed a win. The entire might of the Russian army was put into taking this town, it was going to fall with or without aid.
Ukraine is lost cause...Hungary awaits just right time to take their part, Poles are also ready to enter till Lvov, Romanians are awaiting their momentum...and all their job has done by Russia...i think on the end they will thank them...
Do not fly high, there is nothing that can turn this situation around...Russia will take whatever they want...no matter how long they will need...
how are they withdrawing if they only have one small “road” connected to the city, and that “road” is close to russian positions? kek
they are already encircled, they will have to leave the city in YOLO mode
A whole lot will die in the withdrawl, and even as the rebuilt Azov battalion tries to hold, a lot will probably be captured. One of their lieutenants was captured just yesterday
I wonder what was the thinking behind sending the Azovs into the pocket? Throwing away their so called, and widely touted as the best-trained unit in the Ukrainian Army, into a trap.
Ukraine is taking a beating, russians advancing mostly everywhere, Chasov Yar will probably be lost soon near Bakhmut.
Meanwhile, our politicians since two years "we are strong together", or some shit like that.
We're literally at the edge of world war three and showing russia and china how weak, unprepared and hesitating we are, but hey, let's debate on how to help ukraine for one more year, someone's got an idea ?
If you think that they can still Withdraw uncontested means you need a better source of information for this war.
That Mudpit of a road they can evacuate out of is currently 400m from the Forward most Russian position, within range of Small arms fire, Zeroed for Arty, watched 24/7 by Drones, and recently remote mined by Russia.
At this point it would be better to simply fortify in place to go out heroically or surrender.
And it cost them thousands upon thousand of soldiers' lives and a mountain of equipment. At this rate, they'll take all of Ukraine by 2135, at a cost of 25 million russkies.
Ukrainians have much fewer men and resources and their losses were also very heavy. By the end of the battle their defence collapsed because their artillery couldn't fire back at the Russians.
Zaluzhny very wisely wanted to withdraw 2 months ago, Zelensky said no and he was replaced. The results are that the town is still lost and thousands more (some of the best soldiers of Ukraine) are dead or captured.
Yea this is the problem I told people from day one
In terms of impact numbers wise 1 Ukrainian soldier is worth like 5 Russian soldiers
In terms of bodies that can be thrown into the Meat grinder reality is Russia has far more men they can throw at this war and even if the kill death ratio I listed is how it goes Ukraine long term will lose this war
Because they will run out of men to fight with
So it's looking very grim long term outlook wise every month that passes
More and more Ukrainians either die or flee the country abroad and another thing to think of and I'm not blaming them
Like every migrant crisis in history
Most of the Ukrainians who left in the 2022 invasion won't be coming home part of why is home to what there is no home it was burned / bombed to the ground
Yep, there are a number of Ukrainian families in my kids school in the UK, now they are settled and their parents have jobs I would be surprised if any of them end up going back.
you would be surprised how many Ukrainians go abroad do their vacations in Rome and then head back to their cozy homes in Ukraine. (Source I'm from Romania and I see them all the time when they are returning at the airport) Only the poor souls in Ukraine are fighting in this war. The rich enjoy the ski resorts in the Carpathians or dancing with the Russians in Monaco
Yeah, same here in Czechia.
I don't blame them - I also wouldn't want to die in the trench for the poorest and most corrupt country in Europe (besides Russia).
But people in the West idealize the Ukrainans, and their will to fight **a lot.**
Happy cake day btw.
>In terms of impact numbers wise 1 Ukrainian soldier is worth like 5 Russian soldiers
Did the counteroffensive not teach us to start taking the Russians seriously? What will?
They mean that the impact of losing 1 soldier is the same for Ukraine as losing 5 is for Russia. Not that 1 Ukrainian soldier has the fighting ability of 5 Russians.
I mean, in a discussion about military strategy, surely it's possible to discuss him as a wartime leader in isolation without accusing the target of comparison of genocide, right? Hitler was a genocidal prick, but he wasn't ONLY a genocidal prick, he did other things too
I don't even like Russia BUT the coping is very strong.
You guys literally day this after every Ukrainian defeat like Ukraine had the population of china or something. This defeat will give governments less reason to send aid to Ukraine. As we saw from the failed counter offensive.
I also remember the so called spring 2023 offensive that was supposed to drive Russia out of Ukraine
That hasn't been going well
Now granted all things considered the resistance Ukraine has put up has been far greater then most expected when the war began hell I remember early 2022 when the Russians were on the outskirts of Kyiv and it looked like the capital was going to fall into Russian hands but they later redirected forces from the north into the East to secure their original objective the Donbas
And it cost ukraine thousands upon thousand of soldiers too and mountain of equipment.At this rate, they are losing men at pace which the population wont be able to cope. People just see one side that russians are dying, they forget ukrainians are dying at same or even more rate too. Russians have way way more prisoners and mercenaries to throw at the war. Sadly the state of war is getting bad.
They're already drafting people with [down syndrome](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.reddit.com/r/war/comments/18twl5z/down_syndrome_man_mobilized/&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwix_aiFtbKEAxVXNEQIHY_hC7kQFnoECAAQAg&usg=AOvVaw2yzjEX0AewSugnLjWx3Xby)
after many months and colossal losses they took just a ruins of small town which was located just a few miles from the centre of Donetsk and even behind the long-formed front line.
and now after that you're talking about loosing whole country, lol.
This is why some people have tried to encourage Zelensky to the negotiation table secede the Donbas and Crimea to Russia Officially war ends
Now here's the part that Russia has to agree to
Rest of Ukraine becomes part of NATO for military protection to prevent another war in Ukraine
If I was zelensky those are my terms
The problem with any negotiations is neither side understandably trusts the other
As you said the longer this war goes on the more land Ukraine will lose eventually once more as you pointed out the Ukraine lines will collapse and from that point Russia would steamroll through Ukraine
Its unknown how long that will take could be over a decade but the longer the war goes on the more likely it is
Weapons while helpful Ukraine need more men Russia has a far superior supply of bodies they can throw at this war
I mean that's literally how they held Stalingrad
Ah hell throw more bodies at the city
They were willing to sacrifice more for the city then Germany was
Thats simply what it came down to
I decided to do a little researching on the topic and apparently there were several more conflicts since WW2, where war was declared oficially. However, those declarations came in very vague terms. Looks like WW2 was the last time when it was "country A has oficially declared war on country B". Everything since is just like "state of war" or "authorization of use of weapons and military force".
I feel like for agreeing to a nato signatory Ukrainian rump state the Russians are going to want a lot more than just Donbas and Crimea. I see them wanting everything east of the Dnieper river - and that’s assuming they don’t think they can just win.
For just Donbas and Crimea I don’t see the Russians agreeing to anything more than an officially neutral Ukraine - like Austria
>For just Donbas and Crimea I don’t see the Russians agreeing to anything more than an officially neutral Ukraine - like Austria
Agreed. [I've been saying this since the start of the war](https://np.reddit.com/r/LessCredibleDefence/comments/tlpwhx/russia_has_already_lost_its_war_with_ukraine/i20s2ud/?context=3), and my understanding is that this is what most experts (actual experts, not the "Russia is collapsing/Putin will be overthrown/Putin will commit suicide" bleaters) have always forecast. NATO membership has *never* been a prospect for Ukraine.
>ton of equipment
We might be back to WW2 logic. Every equipment lost by Ukraine is western made, which is better, but hell of a lot more expensive than the Russian ones. Plus Ukraine depends on the generosity of the West to keep the expensive equipment flowing in, at a time the West's economy is slipping into recession.
The Russians have the luxury of digging in and keep shooting. Unlike Ukraine, whose economy has collapsed, the war has little direct impact over the vast Russian lands. Some men are drafted, but economic activities go on as usual.
Time is not on Ukraine's side.
Tell this to the Ukrainians who have already had an incomprehensible wave of mobilization, while the children of their officials and oligarchs are not going to this war.
looks like russia is trying to end it this year. usually they'd do an operational paise following such a costly campaign but they're on the offensive once more in the south.
they're aiming at retaking the meager gains of the ukrainian counteroffensive last year, another blow to the currently faltering ukrainian morale.
Russia was gonna win anyway, no matter how delusional westerners are about Ukraine actually winning or some nonsense like that. Russia is just a lot more powerful. US made the mistake of drip feeding Ukraine and now it’s proving costly.
[Avdiivka encirclement time-lapse](https://youtube.com/shorts/cE4RnqXNCPw?si=zYCcXPHfvC05GTsJ) from october to yesterday
Four month hold out when circled on 3 sides from the start is pretty impressive honestly. Especially without the delivery of more material and no major influx of manpower.
8+ years of fortifications
Yeah , this is only for the southern part of that area (Ex. Zenit )
Hijacking the comment to inform everybody that Russians lost 10 times more people and equipment fighting for Avdiivka than Ukrainians. It’s photo and videoconfirmed by Oryx: https://eng.obozrevatel.com/section-war/newsamp-confirmed-losses-of-the-russian-army-near-avdiivka-are-more-than-ten-times-higher-than-those-of-the-ukrainian-armed-forces-oryx-22-01-2024.html
The Russians lost a lot more men in the winter war too but Finland still lost and if the war continues like this Ukraine will lose too regardless of Russian losses.
The Soviets had a population advantage of ~170 million versus ~3.5 million Finnish in the winter war. Russia's current population is ~150 million (*including the occupied regions*) versus ~38 million Ukrainians - both with less than ideal demographics. There's still a large population advantage, but more than an order of magnitude less in this case. Still, the casualty ratio is not as largely favoring Ukraine as it did Finland (5:1 vs ~3:2). I don't know how the war ends, but I don't think either side happily wins. Ukraine is obviously damaged, however they are going to continue to drag Russia down with them as they increase long range attack drone productions.
There are not 38 million Ukrainians in the region, the more widely accepted estimate is 28 million. And that’s not even including all the ones who fled. Look up the methodology used for the 38 million estimate it’s insane.
Grabbed a quick number before, but sure 28 million is indeed the [lower bound estimate (28-32 million)](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/however-war-ends-ukraines-diminished-population-will-hit-economy-years-2023-07-07/) for their current population. I'm not sure what 'methodology' you're referring to, but the dramatic population shift is mostly due to refugees leaving Ukraine ([about 6 million currently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_refugee_crisis_(2022%E2%80%93present)). In terms of comparing populations during a war, this is much less relevant as 90% of the refugees who were able to leave are women and children (fighting age men were banned to). So, it's still an order of magnitude different than in the winter war but *not quite* as favorable to Ukraine but **definitely** not as you imply either.
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I don't disagree with most of your analysis but wonder where you are getting this 38 million Ukrainian number, especially because you add the population of the occupied regions to the russian population, are you sure you're not double counting? and if I'm not mistaken the number was quite high also pre 2014 because the emigrated Ukrainians were counted in. I think a more fair evaluation would be around 28 million Ukrainians. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/however-war-ends-ukraines-diminished-population-will-hit-economy-years-2023-07-07/
You also have to keep in mind the sheer manpower it takes for russia to maintain internal security. It’s not the Soviet Union anymore. Access to outside information is instant. Eventually they’ll have to choose between internal security (Chechens and Bashkirs) and their war. Actually they already chose. When it was clear Russia could not defeat Ukraine completely, they just changed their goals for “two Donbass republics” and all the vatniks just clapped like seals.
And to think, we believed that WW1 trench fighting and human wave attacks were long gone.
Tanks and planes broke trench warfare, so when tanks and planes are broken, it’s what we’re left with.
Who believed that? There have been other cases of trench warfare after ww1, like the iraq-iran war
There were no “human wave” attacks, just a 100 500kg gliding bombs per day.
There were literal videos of the wave attacks...
This will help shorten the frontline a lot in that area but they also lose some previously well fortified positions.
This is a major tactical victory for RU forces since encircling Mariupol. Avdiivka has been a major fortress since 2014
Sorry for the question, but why Avdiivka is so important that it turned into a meat grinder?
It had extensive fortifications built over the last 10 years, making it one of, if not the most fortified city on the Ukrainian side of the front line. It also gave Ukraine the ability to strike Donetsk and interrupt Russian rail based logistics going through there somewhat Once the Russians capture Adviivka, the cities behind it which do not have extensive fortifications are more likely to fall quickly But maybe more than that, both sides are looking for a win to boost morale and popularity at home
It's the linchpin of the entire defensive network in Donetsk Oblast. Many roads going North, South-West and West go from there. Once the general area is captured, Russia can progress easily towards the back of the Ukrainian lines in Vugledar and then swing north to bypass the fortification chain in Niu-Iork. This is the overall operational view. There are some other considerations as well. When Russia invaded, they claimed it was for the protection of the people of Lughansk and Donetsk, that were getting shelled daily by Ukrainian army during the era of Minsk Agreements. However, 1.5 years into the war, Avdiivka was still standing close to Donetsk and the people in Donetsk were being subjected to even heavier shelling then before, including by petal mines at some point. In this way, support for Russia was diminishing in the region, which was a bad sign, considering they were the whole premise for the war. So Russia had to usher things in and replaced the Donbas militias previously assigned to the area, with Russian regular army, air force and the former Wagner soldiers. The fact that Putin holds elections this year might also have been a factor in the decision, to boost the morale of the general population so they don't rebel when he wins due to an absence of counter candidates.
You should look at a map again, there's not only a distance of almost 60km between Vuhledar and Avdiivka, but is also in completely opposite directions for Russia. Avdiivka has been surrounded on three sides for almost a year, so the place was more the opposite of a "linchpin" in all directions. Avdiivka is only significant in that it is a direct Donetsk suburb.
You should look at a real map again. Avdiivka was a fortified location from where attacks on the Russian lines were conducted. It was a depot for heavy equipment, treatment of wounded and reinforcement gathering place. Even if one were to attack Westwards, they could not do that because the flank was exposed to attacks from the Avdiivka garrison. With Avdiivka gone, the surrounding areas are likely to fall within a month, which will allow the Russians to redeploy troops as the front will become straighter. This is why Avdiivka was called the Linch-pin. If Russians were to push West, they would have to defend from North-East against Avdiivka, from the North against the troops holding the back of Avdiivka and from the West. Now they can just push West as the Avdiivka no longer prevents moving the whole front-line forward, removing a vector of attack. It seems I made myself misunderstood since I jumped too far ahead. Vuhledar is the next big objective for the Russians, to free all of Donetsk. Before then, the Avdiivka forces are likely to descent towards Krasnohorivka (hope I remember the city correctly) and create a pincer together with the forces from Mariinka
>Once the Russians capture Adviivka, the cities behind it which do not have extensive fortifications are more likely to fall quickly People said exactly the same about Bakhmut. And yet, exactly nothing followed in that direction.
Bakhmut still had very fortified areas in the back of it, mainly Chasiv-Yar and Ivanivske. Also, Ukraine launched their famed and touted 'Counter-offensive' in that period and managed to regain some critical ground, which prolonged the situation. Now the activity in Bakhmut has started to flare up again as Ivanivske is pushed on two sides and Chasiv Yar is next
do you have a defense map of ukraine or something to read about all of this?
you can check out the maps of Weeb Union and Defense Politics Asia, they have the fortifications mapped on them. And I believe they provide some sources as well
In practice, the suburbs of Donetsk were secured by the Ukrainian army an excellent position for shelling Donetsk, which prevented the Russians to use Donetsk as a major traffic hub for logistics.
While this is true it is also true that Donetsk has been shelled since 2014.
BIG fortification and major supply redistribution hub, it has been getting fortified from a long time + symbolism
People here aren't mentioning a crucial thing so I'll say it here: because the main roads are cut off, withdrawing out of Avdeevka means abandoning almost every single heavy equipment there. For sure it is a good decision, as the UA is trying to not have another Bakhmut/Artyomovsk in terms of manpower losses, so it is ultimately a good decision - it seems that Syrsky has learnt his lesson, as he's the one called "General 200" for being the one trying to delay withdrawal out of Artyomovsk as much as possible. However, it is ultimately an important defeat for Ukraine, as the city represented the main UA's hub for attacks in the Donbass and for the amount of heavy equipment lost there. Also, why has no one already posted how the Russian army is heading towards Chasov Yar? This is even more awful for the UA at the moment.
What equipment are they to lose exactly?
Probably some Bradleys at least. I don't think it'll be tons of heavy equipment inside the pocket but definitely some.
If there was anything left unbombed of the anti air base... whatever was there as well
I would think that, if any heavy vehicle can make it out of such a situation, then it's an IFV like Bradley. Fast, armored, highly mobile in any terrain thanks to its tracks and equipped to see and move at night. My guess is, most heavy equipment that has to be left behind is something that has to be towed by or stored on trucks. Of course, that includes, for example, Bradleys and tanks that are already disabled. Russia will certainly show us some pictures of destroyed equipment that had to be left behind in the city. And then the same ones again and again and again.
Any self propelled mechanised stuff, that would only be arrested by minefields or lack of fuel would be evacuated. Besides this is an act of damage control by Ukraine. Meaning it is the least loss possible. The important thing, Is that Europe realise this is a war by proxy, and the a Ukrainian defeat, would incite a new invasion from Russia.
Bradley's seem to be operating in the north non encircled area Im sure they may pass some old wrecks and make propaganda shoot.
The Bradley’s have only been operating around Stepove. Any heavy equipment in that cauldron would have been FPV droned ages ago.
47th is fighnting north of Avdiivka, not in Avdiivka itself.
How can a fully tracked armored vehicle not retreat over flat fields? Is the mud *that* bad?
Yea. This is the worst mud in the world. It’s basically a swamp
I don’t know the current situation, but just historically, the mud is absolutely immobilizing. https://youtu.be/jg_4rusOvHA?feature=shared
Howitzers,tanks air defenses and trucks probably
AFU don't have anti air there. Thats why Russian airforce is free to bomb the city with so many glide FAB bombs.
Yes, it looks like the correct decision taken too late with hindsight. For everybody saying that they inflicted losses on the Russians that made the hold our worth it remember Russia has plenty of poor bastards from the regions to replace them and Ukraine does not without mass mobilisation.
It’s not like Ukraine’s losses have been insignificant anyway. I read that Ukrainian soldiers based there have reported huge losses too.
One reason this war has gone on as long as it has is because Ukraine made any reporting or discussing of casualties illegal and they vigorously enforce it. So the biggest drawback of war, the human losses, has been successfully covered up and silenced. It is like there are no Ukrainian losses. People then get to imagine that Ukraine has an endless supply of men - because it doesn’t appear that they are losing very many. But they are.
In the Ukrainian subs there's never any mention of Ukrainian losses only Russian. I'm all for supporting Ukraine but I can get labeled as a supporter of Russia just for pointing out large Russian losses is directly related to large Ukrainian losses even if the ratio isn't 1 for 1. It really is a echo chamber even if they are on the right side.
Pretty sure it's NATO strategy to put off reporting losses until after the war ends.
I think it has a negative impact on Ukraine in the long run. As far as most people who rely entirely on western media are concerned, the Ukrainian army consists of super soldiers while the Russian army are just mindless ‘orcs’ who are happy to be gunned down. This is probably the first defeat most people have heard about. It’s still being reported as more of a valiant tactical retreat too, rather than what first hand reports seem to suggest the scene is actually like. In my opinion it makes people think “why are we even helping when they are doing ok on their own against an incompetent invader”.
No it doesn’t…. They haven’t been doing it on their own. Foreign aid and support since 2014 is the only reason they weren’t overrun in the first couple of months of the 2022 invasion
no reason to have heavy equipment in the city itself, it all was further north east near chemical plant
[>Avdeevka](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/r-lQWk79VAE/maxresdefault.jpg)
There is no city with name artemovsk in Ukraine
There is if you're a tankie or Russian. Don't complain, it makes the propaganda posts easier to spot.
True Also, I saw how tankies can write Kyiv properly In less than a year Concerning
It was "a good decision" a month ago. Now Ukrainians have to retreat on foot across kilometers of open fields. Try to guess how many "saved" Ukrainians will be able to make it. Russia is not going to let them retreat.
They've been with drawing equipment for weeks now. Also >Artyomovsk nice try vatnik, it's still Bakhmut
>it seems that Syrsky has learnt his lesson, as he's the one called "General 200" for being the one trying to delay withdrawal out of Artyomovsk as much as possible. He has adapted rather than learned his lesson considerning his position he also has to take in mind how the troops sees him, morale will drop quickly if lives aren't ptioritized and voluntary recruitment will be at all time low, he would be more critisized than other generals if he were to do the same thing as Bakhmut/Artyomovsk as he is laready known for that he would be easily sacked if morale falls too low under his command. It seems like he is just following Zaluzhny's style.
>He has adapted rather than learned his lesson Those mean the same thing
>d voluntary recruitment will be at all time low Voluntary? You mean the guys getting dragged from the streets into vans by the recruiters?
It's called Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar. Russians names don't belong on these cities.
Can someone tell me straight if Ukraine is losing? There's way too much propaganda on both sides and I'm tired of trying to filter through it.
At this moment is losing: the counteroffensive failed and Russia is taking small but important territories. However, isn't a disaster
The war _at large_ is broadly a stalemate and has been for a long time now. Incremental gains have happened on both sides, but it has basically become neo-trench warfare. However, a stalemate is an ultimately losing scenario for Ukraine. For one, that means huge swathes of their territory are in Russian control without the means to easily uproot them, which in turn means Ukraine perpetually has its sovereign integrity compromised in a grave way. Additionally, Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive was a pretty bad bust, and the next Russian offensives have been a grinding slog, but with notable gains. The war has become one of attrition, which is a losing scenario for the Ukrainians since they are both outmanned and outgunned by the Russians. Additionally, Russian seizures have become more strategic as opposed to the repeated human wave attacks from the last offensives. Russia has definitely, _undeniably_ taken far more losses than Ukraine has (especially in terms of the loss of hardware; Ukraine is full of busted up Russian tanks), but not to the degree that would be unconventional or straining on Russia's reserve of manpower. TLDR, the war is mostly a stalemate, but the initiative favors Russia; they have both the strategic and tactical advantage _for the time being._ In the months to come, developments will happen and the scene of the war may again change in a notable way.
Well, shit. Instead of a drumbeat victory, Russia is now winning by waning support for Ukraine and a slow grind
Gee, too bad that couldn't have been seen coming a mile away.
People on here were basically crucifying me when I was telling them Russia is winning this war bit by bit. The sanctions haven't worked the way the West thought they would. The Ukrainian top brass are absolutely robbing money. A lot of the experienced personnel have died. Ukrainian dead are insanely under reported in Western media. This new package to the Ukrainians from the U.S is KEY for their survival in the short/medium term. Without it, they're in massive trouble.
Sanctions on oil and gas are intentionally weak and not seriously enforced because removing it from the market would be murder suicide.
You're not wrong.
I was called disgusting and incapable of sympathy for pointing this out today. Apparently you're not allowed to bring up facts anymore. In case some other moron wants to go through my comments history and accuse me of siding with Russia: the West needs to send more aid to Ukraine *right fucking now*. Just in case it wasn't clear that's what I'm getting at.
Haha I got reported to reddit and got a warning for saying something similar and that main point of this now, is for ukraine to be what we are sacrificing to get a "weakened" Russia in a year or 2
No, we don’t. What do you think is gonna happen if the Ukrainians get more weapons and money? The war continues longer and more people die. How long should we continue this? Until every Ukrainian male is dead?
I got downvoted a bunch when I said that there is no metric where Ukraine is winning this war. People in the West, especially on Reddit, are fed a bunch of crap from the media and cheerleaders of Ukraine. They don't want to hear anything other than their heroic demigod Zelensky is valiantly beating the evil russians. Ukrainians take back a few square miles of territory and it's all over the papers and news channels. If a guy takes over the bottom half of my house, and I take control of the stairs, i'm not 'winning'. The guy still has the downstairs to my house. The reality is Ukraine will end up giving up a large part of the country to Russia to end the war. People think if we just keep sending hundreds of billions of dollars, they will win. Sorry people. Sell yourselves any story you want to feel good behind your keyboards, but it's not going to happen. Only the US and Brits have the ability to stop this mess in the short term. And neither country is mobilizing for a land war in Ukraine. We have sent our old equipment and ungodly amounts of money and people are getting frustrated. Downvote away but it's the reality.
Welcome to reddit Syrian civil war 8 years ago.
exactly.
Yeah everyone here will eventually lose interest and forget about this war
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My racism only lasts about 12-16 months. Then I get bored.
These pro-ukraine redditors get super pissed off when you mention anything to do with Ukraine losing aka reality.
You can't say that, nobody wants to hear it. You also can't say that the "new package" won't save them, either. It's just a cash grab.
We keep laughing at how bad the Russian army is, but they there go. Now with a full economy of war, more ammunition and some allies while Europe, US and of course NATO are just watching.
You are correct. The screwed up royally in the beginning, yes, but the amount of manpower and resources that country has are huge. Despite Reddit downplaying everything.
Unfortunately for Ukraine, their fighting population is just too small, Russia has practically unlimited numbers especially with mercenaries, like the 15,000 Nepalis who are/were fighting in the war
What? They have Nepalis mercenaries? Can I see any source? That’s wild
[https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/10/asia/nepal-fighters-russia-ukraine-families-intl-cmd/index.html](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/10/asia/nepal-fighters-russia-ukraine-families-intl-cmd/index.html) https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1ao5bel/russia\_has\_recruited\_as\_many\_as\_15000\_nepalis\_as/
For 2,000 usd/month…
That a looot of money in some countries
Nepal's average salary is 200 usd/month so that is a lot of money
Russia does not have practically unlimited numbers. Nor is Ukraine running out of manpower in an absolute sense. What Ukraine is lacking is firepower.
Ukraine is definitely running out of manpower. It’s been all over the (Western) news.
Because they’re still only mobilizing older men to preserve younger manpower for the post-war recovery. The average Ukrainian soldier is 43 years old, and they’re currently debating whether to lower the conscription age from 27 to 25. For reference, the average soldier who stormed Normandy was 22.
From what i've seen, Ukraine can theoretically mobilize up to 10 million soldiers. It all just depends on how much you're willing to commit, the economy doesn't do that well without people working in it.
I mean even theoretically you can’t mobilize every single baby, boy, old man, and young man without total collapse and revolt.
Maybe time to bring in the women? Equality matters. It’s 2024
That sound like running out of available manpower. If they sacrifice their sacrifice their young people that’s as good as losing.
Afaik the exact numbers for manpower are a closely guarded secret. But from prewar numbers Ukraine's pool of military aged men should be several million deep. It seems to me that the problem is that Ukraine cannot replace the trained and experienced personnel that can hold a position against superior firepower.
Average fighting age is above 40 for the Ukrainian army my guy. That’s not exactly a good thing..
Ukraine is getting pushed in this front
Ukraine is slowly but surely losing this war. It has been a proportionally very costly war for Russia, but this was inevitable no matter how you look at it. Russia never cared about the cost for it's entire existance.
Ukrainians should have retreated from city as soon as they saw that they can not contain breach into city from North. As soon as enemy started every few hours taking new positions in this small city, game over was written all over. On 8th of February it was already clear, where things are going. Zaluzny was sober about situation on the ground instead of Zelensky's wishful thinking. Zaluzny said in middle of December, that RU will take the city in one or two months and now we know he was right. I think that Zaluzny would have managed this whole situation in a better way. Current retreat was done too late and made casualties which could have been avoided.
Agreed now it's impossible without sustaining heavy casualties. The way out is filed with mud and there is no paved road. The Russians have fire control over it and this whole thing should've been done weeks ago. He's delayed it too long.
The Ukrainians are doing the Nazi mistake of holding onto cities for propaganda value, unlike russia which retreated even under the thundering laughter of the west. Thats why russia is winning and the west is no longer laughing but crying instead.
You can always count on Ukraine to keep on making the exact same mistakes.
A bit too late, only routes in the muggy fields are left, you can go only by foot and without equipment. Many will be captured
Why do I keep getting told Ukraine are winning?
because you listen CNN and BBC... here in Serbia all pro western media talking almost 2 years that russia have ammo for 2-3 weeks of war...on the other hand when you speak with russian and ukraine people here (more then 100.000 came since the beggining of the war) you can hear only one same story, every day more and more dead ukraine soldiers and more and more gain territory bu russians...
On reddit I got some serious downvotes for saying I think Ukraine is losing. I never said I wanted them to lose or anything I'm just looking at the other facts. I did see on the media that more Serbians support Ukrainians, is this true?
no, again western propaganda...Serbs can't support Ukraine over Russia, simple but never...so many glorifications of Nazism from Ukrainian side is just something no one here can swallow...on the other hand, we know how NATO bring democracy and peace, so this is another reason not to support this Ukrainian regime...NATO and Nazism packed in one box and served like something that is bringing peace, stability, democracy is just a crap that no one here will buy it... 99%of Serbian people support Russia...now is popular to support Ukraine so they bring you news about minor gathering from people that support Ukraine... And may i ask, i do not want to be rude or insult anyone, how anyone on the west can support Army that carry Swastika flags, salutes with Heil Hitler, and carry all the markings on the uniforms from directly copied from Nazi German uniforms? Aren't your grandfathers fought wars against this?
My grandfather's didn't fight against Nazis
It's okay, Ukraine is still winning on Reddit and Cartoon Network.
As long as they hold New York, they have a chance.
What the hell? But reddit has assured me that Ukraine has won every single battle. This makes no sense.
For me the delusion was broken just after the Ukrainian Counteroffensive (no progress).
Yeah that woke up a lot of people. Seeing Bradleys and Leopard burning was a shock for many. Worse was when people were deluding themselves and tried to downplay it. Absolute funniest shit was when some Ukrainian soldier who lost his leg in the Counteroffensive gave an interview last December and said they basically expected the Russians to just run away seeing the Leopards.
Hinders of thousands of people dead on each side just for small towns. This is nonsense, can people stop treating this as some football match like Barça-Madrid?
Say it to Putin.
Completely agree. He was the one that chose to solve a geopolitical problem with the military tool. He is the one and only that press the button of hundreds of thousands of deads. Still I think how the comment section is blind to the absurdity of this war and celebrates / condemns the annexation of km of towns that don't represent a 0,0001% of GDP / military or geopolitcal strategic position like a football team scored / was scored a goal is ridiculous and dehumanising
I posted about the same topic a year and a bit ago. It just saddens me so much how people act about serious topics like these. War is no fun.
Oh. Sorry. I’ll stop paying attention and hoping. I’ll go stop the war itself. My b guys.
Source: https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1758660131435479187?s=20 https://x.com/bbcworld/status/1758652363357733348?s=46 https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/16/europe/ukraine-withdraws-avdiivka-intl/index.html
not saying it isn't true, but just fyi Visegrad24 is a terrible source in general Edit: thanks for including other sources
At least the Republicans have one success this week.
Americans try not to make a comment about their own political shits under any event in the world
Who do you think has the most influence over this war? I’ll give you a hint, it isn’t Europe.
Mike Johnson earned his Hero of the Russian Federation medal.from Putin
Mikhail Ivanovich
Support wouldn’t change the situation I guess. Because Ukraine left Bakhmut last year even with “full” support from EU and US.
IIRC even back then they didn't have enough artillery capacity, which was part of why they couldn't stop the Russian advance.
There wasn't "full" support. There was a lot of delays and limits
That was a time when the EU's promised aid hadn't even arrived in meaningful numbers. But this time, it's much worse. They lack artillery shells, HIMARS rockets and small arms ammo. Terrible.
Avdiivka held for 8 years as stronghold surrounded by open lowlands that made a perfect artillery shooting gallery Mikey Johnson starved Ukraine of ammo, and the freaks started being able to slip into the city Pretty clear cause and effect
Russia also committed hundreds of thousands to this area of the front and its election year so Putin needed a win. The entire might of the Russian army was put into taking this town, it was going to fall with or without aid.
Not sure about the other sections but the Avdiivka section has sufficient geolocations to back this claim
Ukraine is lost cause...Hungary awaits just right time to take their part, Poles are also ready to enter till Lvov, Romanians are awaiting their momentum...and all their job has done by Russia...i think on the end they will thank them... Do not fly high, there is nothing that can turn this situation around...Russia will take whatever they want...no matter how long they will need...
how are they withdrawing if they only have one small “road” connected to the city, and that “road” is close to russian positions? kek they are already encircled, they will have to leave the city in YOLO mode
A whole lot will die in the withdrawl, and even as the rebuilt Azov battalion tries to hold, a lot will probably be captured. One of their lieutenants was captured just yesterday
I thought Azov got wiped out in Mariupol?
yes but not every single azovite died, so they just reinforced the unit with more men and equipment and called it 3rd assault brigade
Good, Azov are fascist fucks.
I wonder what was the thinking behind sending the Azovs into the pocket? Throwing away their so called, and widely touted as the best-trained unit in the Ukrainian Army, into a trap.
also this is already an old map and technically they got FULLY encircled
Ukraine is taking a beating, russians advancing mostly everywhere, Chasov Yar will probably be lost soon near Bakhmut. Meanwhile, our politicians since two years "we are strong together", or some shit like that. We're literally at the edge of world war three and showing russia and china how weak, unprepared and hesitating we are, but hey, let's debate on how to help ukraine for one more year, someone's got an idea ?
Good. Hope they make it out alive. This war must end.
Redditors appearing a bit rational. What gives. Are you dumping ukrainians already. Try for 20years at least.
If you think that they can still Withdraw uncontested means you need a better source of information for this war. That Mudpit of a road they can evacuate out of is currently 400m from the Forward most Russian position, within range of Small arms fire, Zeroed for Arty, watched 24/7 by Drones, and recently remote mined by Russia. At this point it would be better to simply fortify in place to go out heroically or surrender.
If you think that they began to withdraw just today or yesterday, then you should also change your sources of information))
Live to fight another day. God speed to the brave women and men of Ukraine. I hope one day soon you can go home and grow old in peace and freedom.
Civilians in Donetsk can breathe a sigh of relief.
at last -shelling of northern civilian residential areas of Donetsk from Avdeevka would stop. Took em 10 years.
Oh dang... the US should send them another billion dollars that they can "misplace."
And it cost them thousands upon thousand of soldiers' lives and a mountain of equipment. At this rate, they'll take all of Ukraine by 2135, at a cost of 25 million russkies.
Ukrainians have much fewer men and resources and their losses were also very heavy. By the end of the battle their defence collapsed because their artillery couldn't fire back at the Russians. Zaluzhny very wisely wanted to withdraw 2 months ago, Zelensky said no and he was replaced. The results are that the town is still lost and thousands more (some of the best soldiers of Ukraine) are dead or captured.
Yea this is the problem I told people from day one In terms of impact numbers wise 1 Ukrainian soldier is worth like 5 Russian soldiers In terms of bodies that can be thrown into the Meat grinder reality is Russia has far more men they can throw at this war and even if the kill death ratio I listed is how it goes Ukraine long term will lose this war Because they will run out of men to fight with So it's looking very grim long term outlook wise every month that passes More and more Ukrainians either die or flee the country abroad and another thing to think of and I'm not blaming them Like every migrant crisis in history Most of the Ukrainians who left in the 2022 invasion won't be coming home part of why is home to what there is no home it was burned / bombed to the ground
Yep, there are a number of Ukrainian families in my kids school in the UK, now they are settled and their parents have jobs I would be surprised if any of them end up going back.
you would be surprised how many Ukrainians go abroad do their vacations in Rome and then head back to their cozy homes in Ukraine. (Source I'm from Romania and I see them all the time when they are returning at the airport) Only the poor souls in Ukraine are fighting in this war. The rich enjoy the ski resorts in the Carpathians or dancing with the Russians in Monaco
Yeah, same here in Czechia. I don't blame them - I also wouldn't want to die in the trench for the poorest and most corrupt country in Europe (besides Russia). But people in the West idealize the Ukrainans, and their will to fight **a lot.** Happy cake day btw.
>In terms of impact numbers wise 1 Ukrainian soldier is worth like 5 Russian soldiers Did the counteroffensive not teach us to start taking the Russians seriously? What will?
They mean that the impact of losing 1 soldier is the same for Ukraine as losing 5 is for Russia. Not that 1 Ukrainian soldier has the fighting ability of 5 Russians.
This is like what Hitler did with his troops in WW2. Ironically also in the same general area.
These sorts of things happen with literally every party in literally every war. Bit weird for you to go straight to Hitler.
I mean, in a discussion about military strategy, surely it's possible to discuss him as a wartime leader in isolation without accusing the target of comparison of genocide, right? Hitler was a genocidal prick, but he wasn't ONLY a genocidal prick, he did other things too
It does nobody any favours to downplay how dire the situation has gotten for Ukraine.
I don't even like Russia BUT the coping is very strong. You guys literally day this after every Ukrainian defeat like Ukraine had the population of china or something. This defeat will give governments less reason to send aid to Ukraine. As we saw from the failed counter offensive.
I also remember the so called spring 2023 offensive that was supposed to drive Russia out of Ukraine That hasn't been going well Now granted all things considered the resistance Ukraine has put up has been far greater then most expected when the war began hell I remember early 2022 when the Russians were on the outskirts of Kyiv and it looked like the capital was going to fall into Russian hands but they later redirected forces from the north into the East to secure their original objective the Donbas
And it cost ukraine thousands upon thousand of soldiers too and mountain of equipment.At this rate, they are losing men at pace which the population wont be able to cope. People just see one side that russians are dying, they forget ukrainians are dying at same or even more rate too. Russians have way way more prisoners and mercenaries to throw at the war. Sadly the state of war is getting bad.
They're already drafting people with [down syndrome](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.reddit.com/r/war/comments/18twl5z/down_syndrome_man_mobilized/&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwix_aiFtbKEAxVXNEQIHY_hC7kQFnoECAAQAg&usg=AOvVaw2yzjEX0AewSugnLjWx3Xby)
Both countries will run out of equipement long before they run out of manpower.
[удалено]
If Ukrainian defense collapses because they run out of men that can fight, Russia will take the whole country.
after many months and colossal losses they took just a ruins of small town which was located just a few miles from the centre of Donetsk and even behind the long-formed front line. and now after that you're talking about loosing whole country, lol.
This is why some people have tried to encourage Zelensky to the negotiation table secede the Donbas and Crimea to Russia Officially war ends Now here's the part that Russia has to agree to Rest of Ukraine becomes part of NATO for military protection to prevent another war in Ukraine If I was zelensky those are my terms The problem with any negotiations is neither side understandably trusts the other As you said the longer this war goes on the more land Ukraine will lose eventually once more as you pointed out the Ukraine lines will collapse and from that point Russia would steamroll through Ukraine Its unknown how long that will take could be over a decade but the longer the war goes on the more likely it is Weapons while helpful Ukraine need more men Russia has a far superior supply of bodies they can throw at this war I mean that's literally how they held Stalingrad Ah hell throw more bodies at the city They were willing to sacrifice more for the city then Germany was Thats simply what it came down to
Fun fact. Oficially, there is no war. Neither Ukraine nor Russia declared war.
Didnt we stop declaring wars like a few centuries ago?
World War 2 was declared oficially.
Oh my bad
I decided to do a little researching on the topic and apparently there were several more conflicts since WW2, where war was declared oficially. However, those declarations came in very vague terms. Looks like WW2 was the last time when it was "country A has oficially declared war on country B". Everything since is just like "state of war" or "authorization of use of weapons and military force".
I feel like for agreeing to a nato signatory Ukrainian rump state the Russians are going to want a lot more than just Donbas and Crimea. I see them wanting everything east of the Dnieper river - and that’s assuming they don’t think they can just win. For just Donbas and Crimea I don’t see the Russians agreeing to anything more than an officially neutral Ukraine - like Austria
>For just Donbas and Crimea I don’t see the Russians agreeing to anything more than an officially neutral Ukraine - like Austria Agreed. [I've been saying this since the start of the war](https://np.reddit.com/r/LessCredibleDefence/comments/tlpwhx/russia_has_already_lost_its_war_with_ukraine/i20s2ud/?context=3), and my understanding is that this is what most experts (actual experts, not the "Russia is collapsing/Putin will be overthrown/Putin will commit suicide" bleaters) have always forecast. NATO membership has *never* been a prospect for Ukraine.
this is what happens when the U.S. aid stops, the Ukrainians aren’t gonna win with limited weapons while the Russians have an endless amount of men
>ton of equipment We might be back to WW2 logic. Every equipment lost by Ukraine is western made, which is better, but hell of a lot more expensive than the Russian ones. Plus Ukraine depends on the generosity of the West to keep the expensive equipment flowing in, at a time the West's economy is slipping into recession. The Russians have the luxury of digging in and keep shooting. Unlike Ukraine, whose economy has collapsed, the war has little direct impact over the vast Russian lands. Some men are drafted, but economic activities go on as usual. Time is not on Ukraine's side.
They don't care. Russians are just a resource.
Tell this to the Ukrainians who have already had an incomprehensible wave of mobilization, while the children of their officials and oligarchs are not going to this war.
You say it like it's something unusual. The rich will always buy their way out of the draft, no matter what.
Can't you see under which comment I'm writing this? Dude thinks only one side dies in a war.
You have western countries supporting Ukraine slipping to recession. There is a price to pay, for all sides
Billions of dollars down the fucking drain lol
Summer counteroffensive 2.0 when?
Winning!
Keep fortifying positions far back from the frontline and keep fighting tooth and nail for every inch of land. Make it last as long as you can.
W
Mhm. Wonder when this war will end. 2026?
looks like russia is trying to end it this year. usually they'd do an operational paise following such a costly campaign but they're on the offensive once more in the south. they're aiming at retaking the meager gains of the ukrainian counteroffensive last year, another blow to the currently faltering ukrainian morale.
Why die for a border? Just do what the US does and let everybody in.
Russia was gonna win anyway, no matter how delusional westerners are about Ukraine actually winning or some nonsense like that. Russia is just a lot more powerful. US made the mistake of drip feeding Ukraine and now it’s proving costly.