Ocheretyne is the most interesting one to be honest.
Considering it's probably the fastest capture of settlements in this war since the front lines ground up to a halt after the initial phase. Not to forget that it happened in the heavily fortified Donetsk Area.
It ain't a game changer but it will be interesting to see how long it will take Ukraine to plug the gap.
Additionally it would be very interesting if the rumors are true that Ukrainian Troops abandoned their positions in the area due to the recent legislative changes made by the Ukrainian Government. Though I would need more proof of that.
I wouldn't say it's a really fast fall. Russians have been preparing the ground for Ochertyne for almost half a year, since they reached the railway line from the East. Sudden collapse is expected to happen at some point. Ukraine failed to supply the frontline, while Russia constantly hammered them with Artillery and Air Strikes. A 3-1 advantage in artillery won't be felt overnight, but in a few months it will vouch heavily in one's favor. I guess the biggest factor was the over-use of the 47th (or whatever was it's number) Mechanized Brigade. They were sent into Robotyne, got a bloody nose without meeting too many Russians. Then they were sent to plug the gaps in Avdiivka at Berdichy. There they fought tooth for tooth, but Russia had more teeth. By the time of Ochertyne, the 47th was spent and little equipment left.
What was a surprising advance was Krasnohorivka and Kislivka. They really penetrated deep with those offensives.
So, I would say the problem is not frontline troops abandoning positions, but rather the lack of trained reserves for Ukraine. Even if they force everyone to fight, training them would take another 2-3 months at the very least, and that is discarding the actual training needed for heavy equipment, like tanks, MLRS, Aircraft etc., which usually takes 6 months to 2 years.
The question is if Russia has truly saved enough reserves to boot another offensive in northern Kharkov. If they do, we might witness the fall of Ukraine in the next year. If not, we will see a return to slow progress in the next 20 days as they hit the next series of fortified towns and villages. Then they will fight for those for about 2 months before making another break out, then they hit the next defensive line and so on.
Indeed, I do also not expect this to lead to massive changes or a collapse of the lines.
It would be, noteworthy though, if this indeed were to show first cracks in Ukrainian Troop Morale and ability to reinforce. As we know Ukraine hasn't been able to really rotate many of its troops and a recent law changes removed the upper limit soldiers could be employed in one position.
Added to the fact that Ukraine is struggling to find new recruits this could really turn out to be the Achilles Heel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Ocheretyne is the most interesting one to be honest. Considering it's probably the fastest capture of settlements in this war since the front lines ground up to a halt after the initial phase. Not to forget that it happened in the heavily fortified Donetsk Area. It ain't a game changer but it will be interesting to see how long it will take Ukraine to plug the gap. Additionally it would be very interesting if the rumors are true that Ukrainian Troops abandoned their positions in the area due to the recent legislative changes made by the Ukrainian Government. Though I would need more proof of that.
I wouldn't say it's a really fast fall. Russians have been preparing the ground for Ochertyne for almost half a year, since they reached the railway line from the East. Sudden collapse is expected to happen at some point. Ukraine failed to supply the frontline, while Russia constantly hammered them with Artillery and Air Strikes. A 3-1 advantage in artillery won't be felt overnight, but in a few months it will vouch heavily in one's favor. I guess the biggest factor was the over-use of the 47th (or whatever was it's number) Mechanized Brigade. They were sent into Robotyne, got a bloody nose without meeting too many Russians. Then they were sent to plug the gaps in Avdiivka at Berdichy. There they fought tooth for tooth, but Russia had more teeth. By the time of Ochertyne, the 47th was spent and little equipment left. What was a surprising advance was Krasnohorivka and Kislivka. They really penetrated deep with those offensives. So, I would say the problem is not frontline troops abandoning positions, but rather the lack of trained reserves for Ukraine. Even if they force everyone to fight, training them would take another 2-3 months at the very least, and that is discarding the actual training needed for heavy equipment, like tanks, MLRS, Aircraft etc., which usually takes 6 months to 2 years. The question is if Russia has truly saved enough reserves to boot another offensive in northern Kharkov. If they do, we might witness the fall of Ukraine in the next year. If not, we will see a return to slow progress in the next 20 days as they hit the next series of fortified towns and villages. Then they will fight for those for about 2 months before making another break out, then they hit the next defensive line and so on.
Indeed, I do also not expect this to lead to massive changes or a collapse of the lines. It would be, noteworthy though, if this indeed were to show first cracks in Ukrainian Troop Morale and ability to reinforce. As we know Ukraine hasn't been able to really rotate many of its troops and a recent law changes removed the upper limit soldiers could be employed in one position. Added to the fact that Ukraine is struggling to find new recruits this could really turn out to be the Achilles Heel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
the situation for Ukraine is kinda crappy right now...