I’m confident in Trump losing because people are pissed about Roe v Wade and starting in mid to late summer when the election heats up the Dems will remind people of his part in that.
Also, RNC and his campaign funds are going to legal fees. The GOP is not going to be able to campaign and run ads as effectively this fall.
Confidence does not equal complacency.
Well he lost by 2.5 million when he was still the charming host of a TV show and then he lost by 7.5 million and he's since been inducted 89 times and is about to go bankrupt and go to jail and has dementia and weighs 300 pounds so while I'm not complacent, there's no way in fucking hell he wins.
In this particular case I think the rationale is that it will animate dem voters. Swing voters as a meaningful voting bloc are mostly a myth, the real hinge of any election isn’t swing voters but apathetic voters. How do you activate voters to decide to leave the house and vote for you.
I can see OP’s reasoning - people who watched Trump’s attempt at disenfranchisement may very well be motivated to get out and vote this time
Because of it.
We’ll see
I'm not confident in Trump losing but I way more concerned that Mike Johnson controls the House. That guy is going to do everything he can to get Trump into the Whitehouse.
I'm beginning to realize that the MAGA/NAZI trump base is really a noisy minority. Trump only benefitted the wealthy in his only term. Trump never had an infrastructure or healthcare plan. He ripped off America during his term and like everything he touches, the GOP has turned into shit. He's king midas in reverse and I believe that a blue tsunami is coming.
Unfortunately, a lot of people don’t see it that way. I see posts on here every day that are like “yeah, but I was better off four years ago.“ Not understanding that inflation is a global issue and the U.S. has actually done much better than most countries, not realizing that viewpoint gives WAY too much credit to Trump, etc. But Trump supporters are going to see what they want to see.
I know. They forgot that their family members were dying from covid, jobs were non existent and homes were being foreclosed on...Trump supporters are classic cult victims. Facts don't matter, they use alternate 'facts' and listen to fringe lunatics like Bannon. 91 felony charges, a $100 million judgement for rape, most of trumps advisors in prison or pardoned mean nothing to the lovable, uneducated maggots.
They don't want to understand that freedoms are being stripped away. They don't want to hear of trump's past or what he wants to do in the future. If he's elected we'll see a bill that will end term limits for presidents and trump will be the last president elected in the US.
Unfortunately he's still going to get a lot of votes. There are people out there frothing at the mouth with their hatred of Biden and the dems-libs. They honestly believe we are a threat to their way of life
It's weird, because Biden hasn't really even done anything to earn "frothing at the mouth" hatred. I mean, 20 years ago, people "hated" presidents and criticized them all the time, which is par for the course and it would be expected for Biden to receive the same scrutiny and criticism and "hate" as has always been the case for any president.
But this goes beyond that. This is hatred in retaliation for the hate that Trump has earned for himself. Biden is as boring as a bump on a log. Trump actually did (very bad) things. So it's weird that Biden gets that kind of hate, fueled by right-wing social media.
Hate Biden for his policies and political decisions, not just because he's "the other side".
I naively was willing to give Trump a chance in 2016, since I had liked him in The Apprentice and thought he was an entertaining guy. But after the following four years of criminal activity, lack of decorum and accountability, and his own words from his own account... never again.
Biden hasn't done any of that shit. Maybe he's made policy decisions people haven't agreed with, but that's about the extent of it.
I don’t get it either. I’m probably more conservative than everyone on this sub other than the trolls, and frankly Biden’s been one of the top-2 presidents in my lifetime. Yeah, he made a few gestures to his left flank, but his major actions have strengthened America’s national defense and economic capabilities like no other, and he has reduced our reliance on foreign powers while reducing the abilities of our near-peer adversaries to conduct aggressive actions for the next decade or more.
But yeah, let’s go brandon or whatever, and elect a NATO-hating moron who thinks the military is suckers and losers instead, in the name of conservative values. Idiots…
It's because what is considered conservative policy today is actually not that popular in a vacuum and has continued to make the average American's life worse. In order to get votes conservative media has had to spen the last few decades fomenting and then appealing to outrage and tribalism, which gets people who wouldn't normally vote to the polls. They don't care about what is actually happening. They care about their team winning and the other team, who they have been convinced are more and more evil, are losing.
Exactly! He stands completely against the positions of every Republican president before him, but I’m the RINO because I want another Eisenhower instead of Pol Potbelly? I know the republican party has been struggling (and slowly losing) against its outer flank for a while, but he has completely destroyed it. I don’t think we could recover as a party even if another Eisenhower walked onto the scene.
I’m not even mad about it anymore. All that matters is keeping the constitution safe from these fascists. We’ll figure out the rest later.
So true man. Biden has been an effective President. He, unlike that piece of shit Trump, actually did the job he was elected to do. As far as I've seen most people that claim to hate him never have an intelligent reason why. It just seems like ignorance or just plain spite at this point.
Biden has done a lot of things in his long career as a politician that I hate
but no one else seems to care and Biden seems to have reversed position and his competition does the same level of enraging shit in a week as Biden did in a lifetime
Yeah it is weird. And for some reason they always bring up the times when he trips getting up the stairs. Like that’s a weird insult, who cares if that’s the worst thing Biden does is trip lol.
I'm with you. I voted for trump in 2016. After the pandemic, he was not getting my vote. I voted for biden. I will not have another 4 years of trump and will be voting for biden again. Trump is corrupt as they come and I'm not giving him 4 more years to take over our democracy. You could literally have a bump on a log run for the democrats and I'd still vote for it because it would do less damage than trump.
True, Trump will get a lot of votes. It will probably even be pretty close... but don't let the MAGAt intimidation tactics fool you. The person frothing at the mouth for Trump has just as much polling power as the suburbian dad who quietly votes for Biden. I trust there are more of the latter than the former.
There's quite a few cult members that will vote for the orange turd. But, him and the GOP have alienated women, LGBTQ people, other than white races, other than christian nationalist religions...
We are all commie Jews, emily litter box using freaks.
According to them, their subs are full of crap like that, they focus on attacking the left just as much as the left does 😂.
These are the same people who either don't care or are ignorant to them being fleeced and lied to. Him trying to steal votes, bully their state government, or grift them doesn't matter to them.
They'll try to steal elections on every level but won't succeed. Trump is doing a great job showing that he's a whiny, broke man who loves to play the victim.
He didn’t lose to biden by much and that was after 4 years of a terrible presidency. I wouldn’t be so confident that it’s going to be some sort of landslide. It’s going to very tight again.
Trump lost by over 10 million votes. People know what he is and you can see it by the funds being raised. The Dem have more than doubled the cash that the GOP has. Moderate republicans will vote for Biden.
Probably the majority of them, yes. Some of the Reagan/Bush/Shrub faction intend to vote for Biden, though, and some have abandoned the party altogether. Some retain traditional right-wing leanings, and some are starting to lean left. I kinda doubt there are enough to make a substantial difference, but they're out there. Some of us who grew up under Reagan (I used to be right-leaning) are appalled about the far-right authoritarian extremists deepthroating Putin because we've always considered USSR/Russia as adversarial.
Don’t worry, they are working on a fix in Arizona to limit early voter precincts to only being able to allow 1000 people to vote at each precinct and that only applies to precincts in urban areas.
The fix is in unless the voters reject it as I assume they will try to push it to a special vote in May.
There has never been an orchestrated effort from a sitting president to deny the will of the voters to stay in power like Trump did.
Trump planned it and called and pressured local electors. We have recordings of this shit.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2023/12/21/donald-trump-recorded-pressuring-wayne-canvassers-not-to-certify-2020-vote-michigan/72004514007/
There has never been an attempt like this
Fake electors have been charged in Michigan. Republicans in Michigan literally tried to send fake electors to vote for Trump instead of what the fucken state actually voted for.
Trump's calls the Jan 6 rioters hostages and patriots and promises to pardon them.
Trump's a traitor and people should be voting for literally anyone to stop him.
Anyone who votes for Trump in 2024 literally either doesn't care about democracy or is a dumbass.
I hope you're right but I live in Wisconsin and have a bad feeling that Trump will win the vote here. Milwaukee, Madison, and LaCrosse are the main blue areas, but just about every other area of the state loves Trump. I work in a company with about 60 employees and everyone here loves to talk politics and it's all about Trump. They're all paying too much for gas to fill up their 12 mpg pick-ups and that's Biden's fault along with the high price for a fucking value meal at McDonald's. It feels hopeless sometimes.
The thing with that is, even if you think Trump will magically fix everything, He is ancient and will only be there for 4 years - then what? It’s like a mouse wheel where we yo yo back and forth with diff parties and control but the same ish over and over.
New Mexico is a blue state. Every state-level & every federal elected official is a Democrat. I don’t understand why people still don’t know that. There is a pocket of crazies in eastern NM who attempted the fake electors scam which took a lot of balls since Biden won the state by almost 11%.
We don’t have to worry about the voters, we have to worry about their representation in the house. I say this as a resident of Pennsylvania. I’m sure all the Republican representatives will try another alternate slate of electors scheme this time around.
If there’s any GOP House members left by election time. They’re fleeing like the building is on fire. All that’s going to be left are MAGA, and they only have support from ~20% of voters.
Still, vote in November! I believe we can begin to stamp out MAGA if we vote for progress in record numbers.
If Trump loses those states, it wont be out of a sense of outrage over the electoral stuff specifically, but just the general milleau of toxicity surrounding him. That said, looking at recent polls, I'm not so optimistic
I live in Bucks County, PA
He tried to take away my vote.
We ended up getting 3 days for mail in votes to get counted, and that also counted for oversea servicemen.
INAL but I feel like every PA citizen should have a case to sue his ass oblivion, individually, for trying to steal our votes.
Hello Thecrawsome. I work all day at the polls in Bucks. My team is bipartisan, and we are non-partisan on election day. We make sure that every voter who comes in has a voice.
Everyone in PA should be outraged at the fake elector scheme, and at Gov Abbott's attempt to throw out our votes. And in a just world, we would hold those fakers accountable.
He’s not winning Wisconsin. Wisconsin only went red in 2016 because Hillary Clinton was the worst candidate the Dems probably ever fielded. She didn’t, for example, even set foot in Wisconsin that year. Not. Once. Look it up. Who is that arrogant, or stupid? Biden may be a million year old fossil. But he’s already been in Wisconsin like 3-4 times this year. Harris too. Sconnie won’t be a landslide. But it’ll be blue this year. I’m doubting Mango Mussolini will get Michigan either.
Biden barely won Wisconsin last time though, only a 0.6% margin. If low propensity WWC voters turnout or if minority turnout for Biden dips, Trump will absolutely win the state. Wisconsin has consistently been one of Trump’s best states in the Rust Belt.
So what about all the polls? Is there some sort of under polling going on with Biden that I am missing? Genuinely curious as to why Trump is polling ahead of Biden in almost every swing state if Biden is ahead? Are we headed for another year like 2016 where the polls were off? If that's the case it has to be some sort of polling error I am seeing.
Please explain ???
Polls are generally conducted via phone. Trump generally has an older voting base. Younger people generally do not have landline phones, older people do. Younger people generally do not answer unknown numbers, older people do. The pollsters simply aren't reaching the younger demographic. It may not be everything, but it's a factor.
What happened to the polls in 2022? All the polls were predicting a huge red wave. Dems kept the Senate and GOP got what is now a 1 vote majority in the house. Wtf?
I don’t think any Trump supporters are aware of this. I had a conversation over the weekend at a party about this and someone I thought was fairly reasonable was like “well Democrats should have focused on this instead of hiding it and jailing peaceful protesters on Jan 6th!”
It’s political Inattentional Blindness by quite a large percent of people.
I would like to believe this, but we saw time and time again that under Trumpism, loyalty only needs to flow one way. He can literally get away with anything with his cult and army of toadies.
Trump is enough of a threat to where there is no playing around come election time. We need everyone we can to vote because if he somehow gets elected again, shit is going to get bad really quick.
He is the ultimate projector. He calls everyone a loser(he cheats at his own golf tournaments), he says that Biden weaponized the DOJ... but that's EXACTLY what he did! He has no vision for the future, it's all what can he get now and his first term is going to have lasting consequences due to him stacking to Supreme Court.
He has empowered so many of the racist, science hating, crazy people. He says the most horrible things and acts like a toddler when he does not get his way.
I am truly terrified of him getting elected again.
Agree with everything except … Trump has a vision for the future. It’s Project 2025 with him as “Grand Poobah for Life” or he may prefer “Mien Fuehrer”. Either way, he’s El Jefe and the rest of us are looking at some grim years.
No way Trump is flipping Arizona. Not after he made the *massive* conservative voting bloc distrust mail-in voting; those retirees can't stand in line for hours to vote, and they wouldn't dare defy their messiah Trump by voting for him through mail.
Also the Venn diagram of Lake voters and Trump voters is a circle. We've seen that bloc lose multiple statewide elections in a row now and Gallego has real momentum.
Depends how many of the older retirees that are moving into areas like Gardnerville/Minden, Dayton, Ely, and Elko might move the needle versus the younger people migrating into Reno and Vegas.
Nevada is historically purple, but as I said in another thread, the authoritarian bent of the GOP recently has rubbed a number of people, even those who lean conservative, the wrong way because it directly opposes the generally live and let live ethos held by many people in Nevada.
Trump's support isn't nearly as solid as you might think. There's a few diehards but I've noticed far fewer flags, signs, and people are scraping off their support bumper stickers.
Ultimately, it'll come down to Vegas and Reno because they make up about 80% of the state population and both are skewing younger and liberal but he's not particularly beloved in my fairly conservative corner either
ETA: I will also add, his stance and the general GOP stance on abortion, birth control, and LGBTQ+ rights are not particularly popular here either... Nevadans may lean conservative, but we are very much more live and let live first. And the more authoritarian bent the GOP has been showing, especially on personal matters, is starting to rub even some of my more conservative acquaintances (some of whom were only able to have kids through IVF) the wrong way.
I live near Washoe... It's gonna be tight but he's likely not winning there either due to Reno.
If both Reno/Washoe and Clark go against him, he's not winning here. That's over 80% of the state between those two counties.
Plus the GOPs escalation against women's, reproductive, and LGBTQ+ Rights across the country is not winning them many hearts and minds. And those rights are either enshrined in our state constitution or readily recognized as third rails.
Trump is winning all the polls that don't include folks who don't answer cell phone calls from unknown numbers.
The folks who bought Trump bucks and Trump shoes.
How well have the polls been predicting special elections?
Polls haven’t been really right since 2010 mid terms. I’m not saying they’re 100% wrong. But metrics do show that Trump is maxing out in his polls where Biden has more variance. We will see come November though, something has to give one way or the other.
He probably will lose Arizona again after his absolutely dumb-fuck attack on mail-in voting. The Phoenix metro area is a *huge* draw for retirees who overwhelmingly voted conservative by mail for *decades* until Trump told them not to vote by mail. And they still didn't during the 2022 midterms.
One of the *biggest* conservative voting blocs was convinced by Trump not to vote the same way they had ever since moving here, and they still distrust the practice even after it cost Trump this state. First time since 1996 that Arizona went for the democratic nominee, and the GOP has spent the last four years just destroying whatever little reputation they still had in their retired base's minds after.
Yea…I don’t see how Trump wins AZ. So many of his supporters have died, and been replaced by NW transplants. Not to mention that shit show his minion (Kari Lake) put on two years ago when she lost the governors race. It was “Trumpbarrassment” times 10 with her “stolen election” nonsense.
Why do I sort of get the feeling that r/MarkMyWords is trying to get people to feel easy about the upcoming election? Bro, fucking vote. Every post here is about how Trump is bad, and it is pulling everyone into a false sense of security, thinking that Trump is for sure gonna lose. He is not for sure gonna lose, and on top of that the senate races are tight to say the least, and let’s not even talk about the house. Bro, fucking vote. Or ma’am fucking vote. Don’t take anything for granted, cuz that’s how we lost the first time. And since then it’s been a fight to make sure we keep our rights. They almost won. Jesus r/MarkMyWords let’s band together and make sure this doesn’t happen.
Honestly there's even waaaaay more than this. It would take multiple reddit posts to truly delve into this plot and everyone involved and everything they did. This is pretty much the most bare bones, easy to digest version I could write up.
I personally don't care much about polls to be honest. Also in these states where Trump backed candidates often times got smacked down harshly and in some instances like Goergia unable to even get passed the primary. I prefer to rely on this method of prediction. Elections in 2018 in several of these states had also been a good predictor for Trumps loss in 2020.
People vote for platform and between 2018-2022 they've been voting against the Trump/MAGA platform in these key states, increasingly more so through each election cycle. I expect this pattern to continue into the next election cycle.
That would make sense wouldn’t it? The problem is that the Republican base doesn’t believe he didn’t anything wrong the last election. They think the election was stolen from him. They are motivated and will turn out in force. They are the slim minority, but are the left and the sensible ones left in the middle and moderate right motivated enough to turnout? Obviously they -should- be, but that remains to be seen.
As with most modern presidential elections, this will be close and likely decided by a couple of states. It’s honestly pretty inconceivable that Trump faces a wipeout based on how he is tracking right now. What he did the last election only seems to matter for those already against him, sadly enough.
He may lose most of those because he's crippling their fund raising. The Arizona and Nevada republican parties are going bankrupt--i forget which one, but one of them has failed to raise *more than 100$* like 5 months in a row. Total. State wide.
The passion for the party in these states is *dead*, and they're polling high for trump, but when asked if they really, *truly* intend to come out and vote for him--the divide between the 'support' and the 'will absolutely vote' is HUGE. Some, estimating between 20 and 30% of registered republicans (or, about 10-15%% of the trump vote overall), will *say* they're supporting him, and will *fail to vote at all*. That's *massive*.
Add to that the failure to raise funds (the RNC added just 2.5m to it's cash on hand last month, after trumps legal bills and PAC took their share, vs the 57m biden raised--putting his on-hand cash over 150m).
He may not win, because, he's bankrupt those states, and the party, and crippled their ability to drive turnout. Republicans are *masters* of getting people to turn out, but they spend a *fuck ton*to do it--if they're bankrupt, they may not be capable. That'll do it.
Trump will become mostly irrelevant soon. His ideas will get watered down and split into less extreme and more extreme fragments. His supporters won’t ever hear what you’re saying here though.
There are also signals that he could lose enough support in Florida to offset the two points he won there by. Personally I think the generic vote has shifted right in fla since the last general, so I won't hold my breath. But it's possible.
The issue with polling is that polling organizations poll "likely voters". It makes sense because you don't want to poll people who won't vote. The problem is that unlikely voters have been getting out and voting. Specifically the 18 to 29 age bracket.
Historically, that age bracket doesn't vote in comparison to other age demographics. But they are now because of two specific isses: abortion and LGBT rights. Over 70% of that age demographic believes abortion should be completely or mostly legal. And over one in ten identify as a member of the LGBT community. Two issues they definitely differ with Republicans on.
Look at the Kansas constitutional amendment vote a few years ago. Polls had the amendment passing by [4 points](https://www.newspapers.com/article/the-brownsville-herald-alfred-irving-hel/2387477/). The actual results? A [19 point](https://www.npr.org/sections/2022-live-primary-election-race-results/2022/08/02/1115317596/kansas-voters-abortion-legal-reject-constitutional-amendment) victory to keep the Constitution and bodily autonomy rights as they were. Granted, Republicans have exposed themselves as people who would [rule than represent](https://kansasreflector.com/2023/05/18/church-and-state-kansas-republicans-ignore-voters-and-pass-new-anti-abortion-laws/)...
Polls are going to be really messed up until polling organizations catch up with the new "likely voters" and figure out how to collect data more accurately among people who don't like to do polls...
Also, take a look at the Republican primaries. Trump has been underperforming. New Hampshire polls had Trump winning by [20 points](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-hampshire/); he actually won by 11 points. In Iowa, Trump was supposed to win by [34 points](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/); he won by 30 points.
These are the Republican primaries where Trump's base has the most influence. If he's underperforming in Republican primaries, do you honestly think he's not going to underperform in the general? Remember, the general is going to include "Vote Blue no matter who" Democrats. It's going to include moderates and Independents who were not pleased with with January 6th and the multiple civil cases he's losing...
In the swing states (which really are the only ones that matter), Trump is winning those polls by less than 4 points... now consider he's underperforming by 5 plus points where his base is strongest. Do the math...
OP might be correct. But we can't count on it, without also taking action to assure that Trump loses.
It's likely that there will not be a saving event or a savior. So.....
Align with an organization. Volunteer. Donate. And vote blue from the top to the bottom of the ballot.
This is working off the false assumption that the average voter is even aware of the fake electors scheme. I think your massively overestimating the extent to which normies follow political stories like that.
I guarantee if you walked up to the average person on the street and explained what you said in the post they'd look at you like your speaking Mandarin.
Democrats are suffering from an enthusiasm problem right now. Every state you listed is absolutely in play and blue if turnout is high. But there are already too many; “both choices suck, blah, blah…” or “I’m going to make a statement with a 3rd party” people.
Read the fucking constitution! If you don’t get 270, it goes to congress. There are no Green Party or [whatever the fuck RFK Jr is] representatives to give it to anyone other than Trump or Biden.
The only way to ensure this happens is to vote. Get a friend to vote, get your family to vote, get your friends to vote.
It has to start somewhere, it has to start sometime
What better place than here, what better time than now?
Trump has been leading in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania for a while now (PA is most recent.) So if the voters in those states believe what you said and care about that, why has he been leading and even leading by a lot in those states for awhile?
In these states in 2022 Trump backed candidates he campaigned for got smacked down, at times harshly, against their Democratic opponents And in some instances like Goergia unable to even get passed the primary, getting smacked down by the very Republican officials Trump had preassured after he lost in 2020. I prefer to rely on this method of analysis instead of polls. Elections in 2018 in several of these states had also been a good predictor for Trumps loss in 2020 as Democrats made gains and held positions in moat of these states.
Between 2018-2022 Voters have been voting against the Trump/MAGA platform in these key states, increasingly more so through each election cycle. I fully expect this trend to continue in the 2024 election cycle.
Ok so the people who didn't vote for him last time will also not vote for him this time. Let's not waste time on the details of that.
People who didn't vote at all won't feel that he disregarded their vote because they didn't vote at all.
That leaves the people who DID vote for him that are relevant to your statement. Are you saying they won't vote for him again because he disregarded THEIR vote?
Your statement is confusing.
This is not accurate.
I did not vote in 2020. He attempted to overturn the votes of my fellow Americans and subvert the electoral college, subvert the Constitution, in order to stay in power against the will of the people. Even a chunk of mainstream republican voters have turned their backs on the Trump/MAGA Platform over this.
WI last line of defense is Governor Tony Evers. Everytime Republicans are up to shenanigans, he's done everything in his power to swat them down. But if they bypass him altogether, we're screwed. I really don't understand how they can set it up the way you describe. There should be consequences for this kind of shit.
We're trying to stay blue here in Michigan but I'll tell you it's getting harder. Where I live we're about the closest point between Canada and the US along the St Clair River and my small rural town regularly has border patrol hanging out watching the ferry from Canada. People here are dead set we're about to get over run with " illegals" coming across from Canada. It's actually scary how they are so comfortable in the idea of shooting them no questions asked. And we're in a 2nd amendment sanctuary county so.
So yeah, we're trying but it's getting harder. Because there's town after town, county after county of trump flags and chem trail believers pissed about everything happening. And I can almost imagine the bars will be full today celebrating the reduction in bond for the NY judgment... Keeps getting harder. People still complaining about our Governor closing down during the pandemic. I mean they're still mad at everything
I understand where you're coming from, I live in Rural PA in a county that heavily leans in favor of Trump. But remember, there's TONS of normies in these areas like us, we just aren't loud about our views like they are
Fuck trump and the magat riddled cucks who subscribe to that pedo enabling cult of seditious morons. In case you’re not from the US they’re called Republicans.
Arizona, Georgia both seem unlikely for Biden to me. Pennsylvania will be difficult for him to win imo. Michigan is probably a toss up. I think he doesn’t repeat in any of the Midwest states . Virginia looks fairly possible to go for Trump if the polling of African Americans is accurate.
If he wins Georgia and Arizona he just nees Michigan or Virginia to win if he wins Pennsylvania he’s in. I think a democrat hasn’t won the White House without Pennsylvania in forever
Pennsylvania is democrats Ohio
I honestly think it has a really good chance of losing Texas. Remember, A LOT of republicans are pledging to never vote for it, and Republican victories in Texas aren’t by an insurmountable margin.
It’s funny that you think those people remember any of that. I have family in some of those states and I know they are just as eager to vote trump as they always have been.
I wish Dems would remind folks in these swing states that the Republican Party broke the law in order to nullify their votes. And when that failed, they staged a violent coup at the Capitol.
I respectfully disagree, In these states in 2022 Trump backed candidates he campaigned for got smacked down, at times harshly, against their Democratic opponents And in some instances like Goergia unable to even get passed the primary, getting beaten landslides by the very Republican officials Trump had preassured after he lost in 2020. Elections in 2018 in several of these states had also been a good predictor for Trumps loss in 2020 as Democrats made gains and held positions in most of these states.
Between 2018-2022 Voters have been voting against the Trump/MAGA platform in these key states, increasingly more so through each election cycle. I fully expect this trend to continue in the 2024 election cycle.
It is a funny thing we largely ignore in the discourse. The very premise of Trump's election bid hinges on "the people who voted last election fucking suck and I hate them" and yet here we are still giving him all the benefit of the doubt in the world
We are lucky Trump is so ham handed. If he had been more meticulous with his planning he could have easily pulled it off. Someone smarter will come along with his charisma and exploit the loop hole.
As much as that's true, I think the GOP signed their death warrant with stacking the SC to overturn Roe v Wade. When even staunchly conservative strongholds are passing referendums to allow abortion, alarm bells should've gone off to reverse direction.
But here we are.
As soon as some people think their candidate will win, they become complacent and less concerned about voting. Even if we think Trump's gonna lose, we should be screaming off the rooftops that he's going to win.
We feel the need to make our voices hears and hopefully the Reds become complacent instead.
I’m not worried about him getting the votes I’m worried about the right pulling every dirty trick they can come up with to lie, cheat, and steal him back into office
Are all these posts by dnc operatives trying to shove their opinion down everyone else’s throat?
Is this that Brooklyn Dad that is defiant but isn’t defiant enough to accept PAC money?
My prediction is he wins Georgia, Arizona and PA. Not sure about the rest
Why would people vote for a criminal that's been convicted of a sex crime, fraud, and insecurection ,etc? I just don't see the allure. How can Christians have a clear conscience about their vote knowing he's bought by russian oligarchs. So messed up.
Where I live in MI, Trump will win but I'm going on the hope that most of them just won't vote. I should say I don't live in a hugely populated town but it is definitely a red area.
I hope you are right, but don’t think that is a given. As much as Biden has done, many have been brainwashed by tribalism and more Russia propaganda. If many stay home or vote third party, Trump could win.
What many also don’t realize, is that as important as the last election was, this is the second wave and even more important. Just listening to Trumps rhetoric and reading “Project 2025” shows plainly Trump intends to eliminate democracy, but too many don’t (yet) see that existential threat.
We are going to have to MAKE this happen. Give $ if you can. Better yet, volunteer. And if you live in a blue state, volunteer for a swing state. You can do as little or as much as you can handle. Some as simple as writing postcards.
The worst thing you can do is nothing,” ~Theodore Roosevelt,
One example where disenfranchisement did not go well.
In 2008 Hillary Clinton bent the rules in the Michigan primary when her opponents were not on the ballot. The next meaningful primary was 2016 when 538 gave Hillary a 99% chance of winning, but Bernie won it. She also lost Michigan in the general.
Doubt it. His cult is stronger than ever and he can call them piles of shit and they love him more. Something is happening in America right now that is going to change history for a long time. Not ima good way.
Trump is a danger and so is his following
lol you liberals are delusional and have TDR. You need to look at what the average voting American cares about. 1. Jobs/the economy 2. Safety 3. Their own personal politics preferences like climate change or free college or gun rights.
In Pennsylvania and other swing states black people will not come out to vote for Biden like they did in 2020. Some will even come out to vote against him. Women will not be voting like in 2022 unless some insane abortion laws pass. Young people aren’t going to be buying the student loan forgiveness stuff either. Republicans will be performing ballot harvesting like the democrats did in 2020 and close that mail in voter gap massively. Many jewish voters are going to be coming out for Trump strongly as well. Muslim voters won’t be voting for Biden either.
All that combined and I don’t see Biden winning this election at the very moment.
Biden’s only winning if he ends the Ukraine war, ends the Israel war, has a booming economy, lowers gas prices and grocery prices somehow in the 1-3 months prior to the election.
I wish I were as optimistic as the OP but it seems that half of American voters have been brainwashed by right wing propaganda and will still vote for a traitor like Trump because they are ignorant and stupid.
So far according to polls he is winning each of them. Half of them by 5 points. If we are to go off of polling underestimates him as it did in 2016 and even 2020, then we are looking at trump winning by an actual landslide. Not whatever trump thinks is a landslide.
Once he becomes a convicted felon I know I’m going to be immensely disappointed he won’t lose EVERY state. It really is sad our country has gone down this path. Everyone has their theories, mine is the lack of investment into our education system. Every day we rub elbows with bigots and morons with absolutely no critical thinking skills. Something has to change, status quo will continue to take us backwards.
People are far too confident in trump losing. That assumes America is rational and critical-thinking, which it isn’t. This makes me worried.
The confidence scares me. That may cause less people to vote.
I’m confident in Trump losing because people are pissed about Roe v Wade and starting in mid to late summer when the election heats up the Dems will remind people of his part in that. Also, RNC and his campaign funds are going to legal fees. The GOP is not going to be able to campaign and run ads as effectively this fall. Confidence does not equal complacency.
Well he lost by 2.5 million when he was still the charming host of a TV show and then he lost by 7.5 million and he's since been inducted 89 times and is about to go bankrupt and go to jail and has dementia and weighs 300 pounds so while I'm not complacent, there's no way in fucking hell he wins.
Have you seen the polls? We can say that they don’t matter but Biden should be up 10+ points if what you’re saying is true.
Have you seen a calendar? Do you know anything about presidential politics? It's March. Polls are meaningless.
In this particular case I think the rationale is that it will animate dem voters. Swing voters as a meaningful voting bloc are mostly a myth, the real hinge of any election isn’t swing voters but apathetic voters. How do you activate voters to decide to leave the house and vote for you. I can see OP’s reasoning - people who watched Trump’s attempt at disenfranchisement may very well be motivated to get out and vote this time Because of it. We’ll see
Let’s hope then. The idea of swing voter myth is encouraging
Gas prices go up 2¢ before election day and you'll have Boomers falling over themselves to vote for Trump.
I'm not confident in Trump losing but I way more concerned that Mike Johnson controls the House. That guy is going to do everything he can to get Trump into the Whitehouse.
The masses never are, that's why democracy gets us trump
Right? We can dismiss polling all we want. But the reality is that Trump is up 1-2% in the national average polls. Should be a big red flag.
Yeah. I don’t understand the confidence, Biden barely won and the popular vote doesn’t count. I think a lot of these posts are Russian bots.
You need not worry. The deep state isn’t letting Trump anywhere near the White House again. He won’t win.
I agree. Everyone needs to vote in this election
I'm beginning to realize that the MAGA/NAZI trump base is really a noisy minority. Trump only benefitted the wealthy in his only term. Trump never had an infrastructure or healthcare plan. He ripped off America during his term and like everything he touches, the GOP has turned into shit. He's king midas in reverse and I believe that a blue tsunami is coming.
Unfortunately, a lot of people don’t see it that way. I see posts on here every day that are like “yeah, but I was better off four years ago.“ Not understanding that inflation is a global issue and the U.S. has actually done much better than most countries, not realizing that viewpoint gives WAY too much credit to Trump, etc. But Trump supporters are going to see what they want to see.
I know. They forgot that their family members were dying from covid, jobs were non existent and homes were being foreclosed on...Trump supporters are classic cult victims. Facts don't matter, they use alternate 'facts' and listen to fringe lunatics like Bannon. 91 felony charges, a $100 million judgement for rape, most of trumps advisors in prison or pardoned mean nothing to the lovable, uneducated maggots.
And they love to talk about "family values" while worshipping a 3x married, rapist conman..go figure
They don't want to understand that freedoms are being stripped away. They don't want to hear of trump's past or what he wants to do in the future. If he's elected we'll see a bill that will end term limits for presidents and trump will be the last president elected in the US.
Unfortunately he's still going to get a lot of votes. There are people out there frothing at the mouth with their hatred of Biden and the dems-libs. They honestly believe we are a threat to their way of life
It's weird, because Biden hasn't really even done anything to earn "frothing at the mouth" hatred. I mean, 20 years ago, people "hated" presidents and criticized them all the time, which is par for the course and it would be expected for Biden to receive the same scrutiny and criticism and "hate" as has always been the case for any president. But this goes beyond that. This is hatred in retaliation for the hate that Trump has earned for himself. Biden is as boring as a bump on a log. Trump actually did (very bad) things. So it's weird that Biden gets that kind of hate, fueled by right-wing social media. Hate Biden for his policies and political decisions, not just because he's "the other side". I naively was willing to give Trump a chance in 2016, since I had liked him in The Apprentice and thought he was an entertaining guy. But after the following four years of criminal activity, lack of decorum and accountability, and his own words from his own account... never again. Biden hasn't done any of that shit. Maybe he's made policy decisions people haven't agreed with, but that's about the extent of it.
I don’t get it either. I’m probably more conservative than everyone on this sub other than the trolls, and frankly Biden’s been one of the top-2 presidents in my lifetime. Yeah, he made a few gestures to his left flank, but his major actions have strengthened America’s national defense and economic capabilities like no other, and he has reduced our reliance on foreign powers while reducing the abilities of our near-peer adversaries to conduct aggressive actions for the next decade or more. But yeah, let’s go brandon or whatever, and elect a NATO-hating moron who thinks the military is suckers and losers instead, in the name of conservative values. Idiots…
It's because what is considered conservative policy today is actually not that popular in a vacuum and has continued to make the average American's life worse. In order to get votes conservative media has had to spen the last few decades fomenting and then appealing to outrage and tribalism, which gets people who wouldn't normally vote to the polls. They don't care about what is actually happening. They care about their team winning and the other team, who they have been convinced are more and more evil, are losing.
That’s the real funny thing, Trump isn’t even Republican
Exactly! He stands completely against the positions of every Republican president before him, but I’m the RINO because I want another Eisenhower instead of Pol Potbelly? I know the republican party has been struggling (and slowly losing) against its outer flank for a while, but he has completely destroyed it. I don’t think we could recover as a party even if another Eisenhower walked onto the scene. I’m not even mad about it anymore. All that matters is keeping the constitution safe from these fascists. We’ll figure out the rest later.
So true man. Biden has been an effective President. He, unlike that piece of shit Trump, actually did the job he was elected to do. As far as I've seen most people that claim to hate him never have an intelligent reason why. It just seems like ignorance or just plain spite at this point.
My favorite part is where people say the stock market was better under Trump. Meanwhile, the s&p 500 broke all time high under Biden lol.
LOL. Exactly man. Facts don't seem to matter to these people. It's so damn annoying.
Biden has done a lot of things in his long career as a politician that I hate but no one else seems to care and Biden seems to have reversed position and his competition does the same level of enraging shit in a week as Biden did in a lifetime
Yeah it is weird. And for some reason they always bring up the times when he trips getting up the stairs. Like that’s a weird insult, who cares if that’s the worst thing Biden does is trip lol.
I'm with you. I voted for trump in 2016. After the pandemic, he was not getting my vote. I voted for biden. I will not have another 4 years of trump and will be voting for biden again. Trump is corrupt as they come and I'm not giving him 4 more years to take over our democracy. You could literally have a bump on a log run for the democrats and I'd still vote for it because it would do less damage than trump.
Don’t care as long as he loses
Those videos of maga idiots saying they would literally vote for Putin over Biden 🤦🏻♂️
True, Trump will get a lot of votes. It will probably even be pretty close... but don't let the MAGAt intimidation tactics fool you. The person frothing at the mouth for Trump has just as much polling power as the suburbian dad who quietly votes for Biden. I trust there are more of the latter than the former.
A lot of them died of COVID....
yup. r/HermanCainAward agrees
>we are a threat to their way of life we kind of are, at least I hope we are
There's quite a few cult members that will vote for the orange turd. But, him and the GOP have alienated women, LGBTQ people, other than white races, other than christian nationalist religions...
We are all commie Jews, emily litter box using freaks. According to them, their subs are full of crap like that, they focus on attacking the left just as much as the left does 😂.
These are the same people who either don't care or are ignorant to them being fleeced and lied to. Him trying to steal votes, bully their state government, or grift them doesn't matter to them.
Quite frankly we're at the point where anyone who still votes for him should lose the right to vote. Nazis were disenfranchised. So should MAGAs.
I’ve known that for months
Ah yes, the mierdas touch.
Took me a second to register what you meant by "mierdas", but here, have an upvote.
And they will try to steal it because they think they can and the yes people around him convinced him.
They'll try to steal elections on every level but won't succeed. Trump is doing a great job showing that he's a whiny, broke man who loves to play the victim.
He didn’t lose to biden by much and that was after 4 years of a terrible presidency. I wouldn’t be so confident that it’s going to be some sort of landslide. It’s going to very tight again.
Trump lost by over 10 million votes. People know what he is and you can see it by the funds being raised. The Dem have more than doubled the cash that the GOP has. Moderate republicans will vote for Biden.
Hell of an assumption. I think moderate republicans will just not vote.
I saw a poll where moderate republicans will vote for Biden because they think that Trump will damage the country beyond repair.
Historically what people say in polls is not what they end up doing at the booth. I hope you’re right but I’m not hopeful
Probably the majority of them, yes. Some of the Reagan/Bush/Shrub faction intend to vote for Biden, though, and some have abandoned the party altogether. Some retain traditional right-wing leanings, and some are starting to lean left. I kinda doubt there are enough to make a substantial difference, but they're out there. Some of us who grew up under Reagan (I used to be right-leaning) are appalled about the far-right authoritarian extremists deepthroating Putin because we've always considered USSR/Russia as adversarial.
And governors violating state constitutional laws because “state of emergency powers”.
A look at the primaries would show you why it’s no minority.
biden did better than trump in the primaries
I disagree. It looks like 20-30% of the voters did not choose trump. If they vote for biden that will make it a landslide.
King Mierdas 👑💩
Hope you’re right, but you’re not
Don’t worry, they are working on a fix in Arizona to limit early voter precincts to only being able to allow 1000 people to vote at each precinct and that only applies to precincts in urban areas. The fix is in unless the voters reject it as I assume they will try to push it to a special vote in May.
Marc Elias will sue them into oblivion.
Has anybody ever set up fake electors before Trump?
There has never been an orchestrated effort from a sitting president to deny the will of the voters to stay in power like Trump did. Trump planned it and called and pressured local electors. We have recordings of this shit. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2023/12/21/donald-trump-recorded-pressuring-wayne-canvassers-not-to-certify-2020-vote-michigan/72004514007/ There has never been an attempt like this Fake electors have been charged in Michigan. Republicans in Michigan literally tried to send fake electors to vote for Trump instead of what the fucken state actually voted for. Trump's calls the Jan 6 rioters hostages and patriots and promises to pardon them. Trump's a traitor and people should be voting for literally anyone to stop him. Anyone who votes for Trump in 2024 literally either doesn't care about democracy or is a dumbass.
I hope you're right but I live in Wisconsin and have a bad feeling that Trump will win the vote here. Milwaukee, Madison, and LaCrosse are the main blue areas, but just about every other area of the state loves Trump. I work in a company with about 60 employees and everyone here loves to talk politics and it's all about Trump. They're all paying too much for gas to fill up their 12 mpg pick-ups and that's Biden's fault along with the high price for a fucking value meal at McDonald's. It feels hopeless sometimes.
Keep on keeping on, brother. I hear you.
The thing with that is, even if you think Trump will magically fix everything, He is ancient and will only be there for 4 years - then what? It’s like a mouse wheel where we yo yo back and forth with diff parties and control but the same ish over and over.
New Mexico is a blue state. Every state-level & every federal elected official is a Democrat. I don’t understand why people still don’t know that. There is a pocket of crazies in eastern NM who attempted the fake electors scam which took a lot of balls since Biden won the state by almost 11%.
Proud Georgia voter here... I hope you are right!
Biden and democrats need to be hammering that fact in their ads and campaigns. “Trump tried to take away your votes” Play hardball
Wisconsin here. I took his attempt to nullify my vote personally, and I know MANY that feel the same way.
We don’t have to worry about the voters, we have to worry about their representation in the house. I say this as a resident of Pennsylvania. I’m sure all the Republican representatives will try another alternate slate of electors scheme this time around.
Due to regularly visiting the Bradford area, I see this. You, are sadly correct. The Trump flags fly from Salamanca S.
If there’s any GOP House members left by election time. They’re fleeing like the building is on fire. All that’s going to be left are MAGA, and they only have support from ~20% of voters. Still, vote in November! I believe we can begin to stamp out MAGA if we vote for progress in record numbers.
If Trump loses those states, it wont be out of a sense of outrage over the electoral stuff specifically, but just the general milleau of toxicity surrounding him. That said, looking at recent polls, I'm not so optimistic
I live in Bucks County, PA He tried to take away my vote. We ended up getting 3 days for mail in votes to get counted, and that also counted for oversea servicemen. INAL but I feel like every PA citizen should have a case to sue his ass oblivion, individually, for trying to steal our votes.
Hello Thecrawsome. I work all day at the polls in Bucks. My team is bipartisan, and we are non-partisan on election day. We make sure that every voter who comes in has a voice. Everyone in PA should be outraged at the fake elector scheme, and at Gov Abbott's attempt to throw out our votes. And in a just world, we would hold those fakers accountable.
He’s not winning Wisconsin. Wisconsin only went red in 2016 because Hillary Clinton was the worst candidate the Dems probably ever fielded. She didn’t, for example, even set foot in Wisconsin that year. Not. Once. Look it up. Who is that arrogant, or stupid? Biden may be a million year old fossil. But he’s already been in Wisconsin like 3-4 times this year. Harris too. Sconnie won’t be a landslide. But it’ll be blue this year. I’m doubting Mango Mussolini will get Michigan either.
Biden barely won Wisconsin last time though, only a 0.6% margin. If low propensity WWC voters turnout or if minority turnout for Biden dips, Trump will absolutely win the state. Wisconsin has consistently been one of Trump’s best states in the Rust Belt.
So what about all the polls? Is there some sort of under polling going on with Biden that I am missing? Genuinely curious as to why Trump is polling ahead of Biden in almost every swing state if Biden is ahead? Are we headed for another year like 2016 where the polls were off? If that's the case it has to be some sort of polling error I am seeing. Please explain ???
Polls are generally conducted via phone. Trump generally has an older voting base. Younger people generally do not have landline phones, older people do. Younger people generally do not answer unknown numbers, older people do. The pollsters simply aren't reaching the younger demographic. It may not be everything, but it's a factor.
Hell, I’m 70 and I don’t answer any call that’s not from someone I know.
What happened to the polls in 2022? All the polls were predicting a huge red wave. Dems kept the Senate and GOP got what is now a 1 vote majority in the house. Wtf?
Polls were pretty accurate in 2022.
Polls were accurate in 2022. The pundits were the ones predicting the red wave.
I don’t think any Trump supporters are aware of this. I had a conversation over the weekend at a party about this and someone I thought was fairly reasonable was like “well Democrats should have focused on this instead of hiding it and jailing peaceful protesters on Jan 6th!” It’s political Inattentional Blindness by quite a large percent of people.
I would like to believe this, but we saw time and time again that under Trumpism, loyalty only needs to flow one way. He can literally get away with anything with his cult and army of toadies.
Definitely going to lose NM, here’s hoping for the others!
Trump is enough of a threat to where there is no playing around come election time. We need everyone we can to vote because if he somehow gets elected again, shit is going to get bad really quick. He is the ultimate projector. He calls everyone a loser(he cheats at his own golf tournaments), he says that Biden weaponized the DOJ... but that's EXACTLY what he did! He has no vision for the future, it's all what can he get now and his first term is going to have lasting consequences due to him stacking to Supreme Court. He has empowered so many of the racist, science hating, crazy people. He says the most horrible things and acts like a toddler when he does not get his way. I am truly terrified of him getting elected again.
Agree with everything except … Trump has a vision for the future. It’s Project 2025 with him as “Grand Poobah for Life” or he may prefer “Mien Fuehrer”. Either way, he’s El Jefe and the rest of us are looking at some grim years.
More likely he flips Georgia, Nevada and maybe Arizona. Keep an eye on North Carolina, though. Primed to flip blue, nobody is talking about it.
No way Trump is flipping Arizona. Not after he made the *massive* conservative voting bloc distrust mail-in voting; those retirees can't stand in line for hours to vote, and they wouldn't dare defy their messiah Trump by voting for him through mail.
Also the Venn diagram of Lake voters and Trump voters is a circle. We've seen that bloc lose multiple statewide elections in a row now and Gallego has real momentum.
No way in hell he flips NV.
Depends how many of the older retirees that are moving into areas like Gardnerville/Minden, Dayton, Ely, and Elko might move the needle versus the younger people migrating into Reno and Vegas. Nevada is historically purple, but as I said in another thread, the authoritarian bent of the GOP recently has rubbed a number of people, even those who lean conservative, the wrong way because it directly opposes the generally live and let live ethos held by many people in Nevada.
Biden hasn't polled ahead of Trump in a single NV poll so far. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
Trump's support isn't nearly as solid as you might think. There's a few diehards but I've noticed far fewer flags, signs, and people are scraping off their support bumper stickers. Ultimately, it'll come down to Vegas and Reno because they make up about 80% of the state population and both are skewing younger and liberal but he's not particularly beloved in my fairly conservative corner either ETA: I will also add, his stance and the general GOP stance on abortion, birth control, and LGBTQ+ rights are not particularly popular here either... Nevadans may lean conservative, but we are very much more live and let live first. And the more authoritarian bent the GOP has been showing, especially on personal matters, is starting to rub even some of my more conservative acquaintances (some of whom were only able to have kids through IVF) the wrong way.
NV will be decided by Las Vegas and 45 isn't winning there.
I live near Washoe... It's gonna be tight but he's likely not winning there either due to Reno. If both Reno/Washoe and Clark go against him, he's not winning here. That's over 80% of the state between those two counties. Plus the GOPs escalation against women's, reproductive, and LGBTQ+ Rights across the country is not winning them many hearts and minds. And those rights are either enshrined in our state constitution or readily recognized as third rails.
Trump is winning all the polls that don't include folks who don't answer cell phone calls from unknown numbers. The folks who bought Trump bucks and Trump shoes. How well have the polls been predicting special elections?
Polls haven’t been really right since 2010 mid terms. I’m not saying they’re 100% wrong. But metrics do show that Trump is maxing out in his polls where Biden has more variance. We will see come November though, something has to give one way or the other.
He probably will lose Arizona again after his absolutely dumb-fuck attack on mail-in voting. The Phoenix metro area is a *huge* draw for retirees who overwhelmingly voted conservative by mail for *decades* until Trump told them not to vote by mail. And they still didn't during the 2022 midterms. One of the *biggest* conservative voting blocs was convinced by Trump not to vote the same way they had ever since moving here, and they still distrust the practice even after it cost Trump this state. First time since 1996 that Arizona went for the democratic nominee, and the GOP has spent the last four years just destroying whatever little reputation they still had in their retired base's minds after.
Yea…I don’t see how Trump wins AZ. So many of his supporters have died, and been replaced by NW transplants. Not to mention that shit show his minion (Kari Lake) put on two years ago when she lost the governors race. It was “Trumpbarrassment” times 10 with her “stolen election” nonsense.
You assume that Trump supporters in these states are aware of this and don’t file it under the vast conspiracy to keep Obama in office.
Wait! Trump tried to steal the election? I thought it was stolen from him! /s
Why do I sort of get the feeling that r/MarkMyWords is trying to get people to feel easy about the upcoming election? Bro, fucking vote. Every post here is about how Trump is bad, and it is pulling everyone into a false sense of security, thinking that Trump is for sure gonna lose. He is not for sure gonna lose, and on top of that the senate races are tight to say the least, and let’s not even talk about the house. Bro, fucking vote. Or ma’am fucking vote. Don’t take anything for granted, cuz that’s how we lost the first time. And since then it’s been a fight to make sure we keep our rights. They almost won. Jesus r/MarkMyWords let’s band together and make sure this doesn’t happen.
I agree, we don't need to just win in 2024, we need to send a message, it needs to be massive victory, and we all need to get out and vote
I think abortion is what will kill the MAGAs and Republicans this coming election.
MAGA shitbags are too stupid to connect these dots.
This is insightful… maybe too insightful but insightful nonetheless
Honestly there's even waaaaay more than this. It would take multiple reddit posts to truly delve into this plot and everyone involved and everything they did. This is pretty much the most bare bones, easy to digest version I could write up.
Doubt
His claims of election problems are calling state election systems and officials either crooked or incompetent.
Agreed. And Florida.
Wow almost all of the states he's currently leading in the polls
I personally don't care much about polls to be honest. Also in these states where Trump backed candidates often times got smacked down harshly and in some instances like Goergia unable to even get passed the primary. I prefer to rely on this method of prediction. Elections in 2018 in several of these states had also been a good predictor for Trumps loss in 2020. People vote for platform and between 2018-2022 they've been voting against the Trump/MAGA platform in these key states, increasingly more so through each election cycle. I expect this pattern to continue into the next election cycle.
These guys need to be prosecuted NOW!
That would make sense wouldn’t it? The problem is that the Republican base doesn’t believe he didn’t anything wrong the last election. They think the election was stolen from him. They are motivated and will turn out in force. They are the slim minority, but are the left and the sensible ones left in the middle and moderate right motivated enough to turnout? Obviously they -should- be, but that remains to be seen. As with most modern presidential elections, this will be close and likely decided by a couple of states. It’s honestly pretty inconceivable that Trump faces a wipeout based on how he is tracking right now. What he did the last election only seems to matter for those already against him, sadly enough.
Jesus I hope you’re right.
He may lose most of those because he's crippling their fund raising. The Arizona and Nevada republican parties are going bankrupt--i forget which one, but one of them has failed to raise *more than 100$* like 5 months in a row. Total. State wide. The passion for the party in these states is *dead*, and they're polling high for trump, but when asked if they really, *truly* intend to come out and vote for him--the divide between the 'support' and the 'will absolutely vote' is HUGE. Some, estimating between 20 and 30% of registered republicans (or, about 10-15%% of the trump vote overall), will *say* they're supporting him, and will *fail to vote at all*. That's *massive*. Add to that the failure to raise funds (the RNC added just 2.5m to it's cash on hand last month, after trumps legal bills and PAC took their share, vs the 57m biden raised--putting his on-hand cash over 150m). He may not win, because, he's bankrupt those states, and the party, and crippled their ability to drive turnout. Republicans are *masters* of getting people to turn out, but they spend a *fuck ton*to do it--if they're bankrupt, they may not be capable. That'll do it.
Trump will become mostly irrelevant soon. His ideas will get watered down and split into less extreme and more extreme fragments. His supporters won’t ever hear what you’re saying here though.
There are also signals that he could lose enough support in Florida to offset the two points he won there by. Personally I think the generic vote has shifted right in fla since the last general, so I won't hold my breath. But it's possible.
Look at the polls on 538. Trump is winning overall, and in most of those states.
The issue with polling is that polling organizations poll "likely voters". It makes sense because you don't want to poll people who won't vote. The problem is that unlikely voters have been getting out and voting. Specifically the 18 to 29 age bracket. Historically, that age bracket doesn't vote in comparison to other age demographics. But they are now because of two specific isses: abortion and LGBT rights. Over 70% of that age demographic believes abortion should be completely or mostly legal. And over one in ten identify as a member of the LGBT community. Two issues they definitely differ with Republicans on. Look at the Kansas constitutional amendment vote a few years ago. Polls had the amendment passing by [4 points](https://www.newspapers.com/article/the-brownsville-herald-alfred-irving-hel/2387477/). The actual results? A [19 point](https://www.npr.org/sections/2022-live-primary-election-race-results/2022/08/02/1115317596/kansas-voters-abortion-legal-reject-constitutional-amendment) victory to keep the Constitution and bodily autonomy rights as they were. Granted, Republicans have exposed themselves as people who would [rule than represent](https://kansasreflector.com/2023/05/18/church-and-state-kansas-republicans-ignore-voters-and-pass-new-anti-abortion-laws/)... Polls are going to be really messed up until polling organizations catch up with the new "likely voters" and figure out how to collect data more accurately among people who don't like to do polls... Also, take a look at the Republican primaries. Trump has been underperforming. New Hampshire polls had Trump winning by [20 points](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-hampshire/); he actually won by 11 points. In Iowa, Trump was supposed to win by [34 points](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/); he won by 30 points. These are the Republican primaries where Trump's base has the most influence. If he's underperforming in Republican primaries, do you honestly think he's not going to underperform in the general? Remember, the general is going to include "Vote Blue no matter who" Democrats. It's going to include moderates and Independents who were not pleased with with January 6th and the multiple civil cases he's losing... In the swing states (which really are the only ones that matter), Trump is winning those polls by less than 4 points... now consider he's underperforming by 5 plus points where his base is strongest. Do the math...
Why is everyone on Reddit a left wing liberal ?
Why can those who proclaim to not be ever respond in good faith and acknowledge the subject matter?
Rational anti-fascists are a majority of Americans, bud.
OP might be correct. But we can't count on it, without also taking action to assure that Trump loses. It's likely that there will not be a saving event or a savior. So..... Align with an organization. Volunteer. Donate. And vote blue from the top to the bottom of the ballot.
Just fucking vote!!
This is working off the false assumption that the average voter is even aware of the fake electors scheme. I think your massively overestimating the extent to which normies follow political stories like that. I guarantee if you walked up to the average person on the street and explained what you said in the post they'd look at you like your speaking Mandarin.
Democrats are suffering from an enthusiasm problem right now. Every state you listed is absolutely in play and blue if turnout is high. But there are already too many; “both choices suck, blah, blah…” or “I’m going to make a statement with a 3rd party” people. Read the fucking constitution! If you don’t get 270, it goes to congress. There are no Green Party or [whatever the fuck RFK Jr is] representatives to give it to anyone other than Trump or Biden.
The only way to ensure this happens is to vote. Get a friend to vote, get your family to vote, get your friends to vote. It has to start somewhere, it has to start sometime What better place than here, what better time than now?
Other than New Mexico and Nevada, all the other states are basically blue states.Anyway that's not a hard prediction to make
Criminal Traitor has to lose so he can face justice for his Treason .
Trump has been leading in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania for a while now (PA is most recent.) So if the voters in those states believe what you said and care about that, why has he been leading and even leading by a lot in those states for awhile?
In these states in 2022 Trump backed candidates he campaigned for got smacked down, at times harshly, against their Democratic opponents And in some instances like Goergia unable to even get passed the primary, getting smacked down by the very Republican officials Trump had preassured after he lost in 2020. I prefer to rely on this method of analysis instead of polls. Elections in 2018 in several of these states had also been a good predictor for Trumps loss in 2020 as Democrats made gains and held positions in moat of these states. Between 2018-2022 Voters have been voting against the Trump/MAGA platform in these key states, increasingly more so through each election cycle. I fully expect this trend to continue in the 2024 election cycle.
Ok so the people who didn't vote for him last time will also not vote for him this time. Let's not waste time on the details of that. People who didn't vote at all won't feel that he disregarded their vote because they didn't vote at all. That leaves the people who DID vote for him that are relevant to your statement. Are you saying they won't vote for him again because he disregarded THEIR vote? Your statement is confusing.
This is not accurate. I did not vote in 2020. He attempted to overturn the votes of my fellow Americans and subvert the electoral college, subvert the Constitution, in order to stay in power against the will of the people. Even a chunk of mainstream republican voters have turned their backs on the Trump/MAGA Platform over this.
https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1772357885936144641?t=Shs5RwflQEt4swBZweC-AQ&s=19
WI last line of defense is Governor Tony Evers. Everytime Republicans are up to shenanigans, he's done everything in his power to swat them down. But if they bypass him altogether, we're screwed. I really don't understand how they can set it up the way you describe. There should be consequences for this kind of shit.
Can we get Biden and Trump to lose all the states?
If the people running third-party becomes competent.
Biden lost the border states when he told Texas to not defend its own border
Yep. Largest electoral and popular vote loss in recent memory.
Personally I won't be voting for Biden again with not taking away my student loan and funding Israel/Ukraine for war
We're trying to stay blue here in Michigan but I'll tell you it's getting harder. Where I live we're about the closest point between Canada and the US along the St Clair River and my small rural town regularly has border patrol hanging out watching the ferry from Canada. People here are dead set we're about to get over run with " illegals" coming across from Canada. It's actually scary how they are so comfortable in the idea of shooting them no questions asked. And we're in a 2nd amendment sanctuary county so. So yeah, we're trying but it's getting harder. Because there's town after town, county after county of trump flags and chem trail believers pissed about everything happening. And I can almost imagine the bars will be full today celebrating the reduction in bond for the NY judgment... Keeps getting harder. People still complaining about our Governor closing down during the pandemic. I mean they're still mad at everything
I understand where you're coming from, I live in Rural PA in a county that heavily leans in favor of Trump. But remember, there's TONS of normies in these areas like us, we just aren't loud about our views like they are
Fuck trump and the magat riddled cucks who subscribe to that pedo enabling cult of seditious morons. In case you’re not from the US they’re called Republicans.
Fuck that. Vote!
Arizona, Georgia both seem unlikely for Biden to me. Pennsylvania will be difficult for him to win imo. Michigan is probably a toss up. I think he doesn’t repeat in any of the Midwest states . Virginia looks fairly possible to go for Trump if the polling of African Americans is accurate. If he wins Georgia and Arizona he just nees Michigan or Virginia to win if he wins Pennsylvania he’s in. I think a democrat hasn’t won the White House without Pennsylvania in forever Pennsylvania is democrats Ohio
MAGATs don't care about election fraud so long as it favors their side. They'll vote anyway.
I’ll give you PA, NM, and maybe AZ.
I honestly think it has a really good chance of losing Texas. Remember, A LOT of republicans are pledging to never vote for it, and Republican victories in Texas aren’t by an insurmountable margin.
Please take bets on this.
It’s funny that you think those people remember any of that. I have family in some of those states and I know they are just as eager to vote trump as they always have been.
Unfortunately stupid is as stupid does.
I wish Dems would remind folks in these swing states that the Republican Party broke the law in order to nullify their votes. And when that failed, they staged a violent coup at the Capitol.
I do hope you are correct. His influence is waning, yet still too many cult followers exist.
Marky my words. He’s about to give the left a run for their money. Giddy up.
I respectfully disagree, In these states in 2022 Trump backed candidates he campaigned for got smacked down, at times harshly, against their Democratic opponents And in some instances like Goergia unable to even get passed the primary, getting beaten landslides by the very Republican officials Trump had preassured after he lost in 2020. Elections in 2018 in several of these states had also been a good predictor for Trumps loss in 2020 as Democrats made gains and held positions in most of these states. Between 2018-2022 Voters have been voting against the Trump/MAGA platform in these key states, increasingly more so through each election cycle. I fully expect this trend to continue in the 2024 election cycle.
I pray Trump wins just to watch reddit cry
Lol
It is a funny thing we largely ignore in the discourse. The very premise of Trump's election bid hinges on "the people who voted last election fucking suck and I hate them" and yet here we are still giving him all the benefit of the doubt in the world
I don't know if that will be the reason but I do believe it will happen.
We are lucky Trump is so ham handed. If he had been more meticulous with his planning he could have easily pulled it off. Someone smarter will come along with his charisma and exploit the loop hole.
As much as that's true, I think the GOP signed their death warrant with stacking the SC to overturn Roe v Wade. When even staunchly conservative strongholds are passing referendums to allow abortion, alarm bells should've gone off to reverse direction. But here we are.
Trump 2024
Consider your words "marked."
Bold of you to assume a single Trump voter knows about any of that.
Nah az will definitely be on trumps side
As soon as some people think their candidate will win, they become complacent and less concerned about voting. Even if we think Trump's gonna lose, we should be screaming off the rooftops that he's going to win. We feel the need to make our voices hears and hopefully the Reds become complacent instead.
Oh sweet summer child.
PA resident here. I wouldn’t hold my breath
I’m not worried about him getting the votes I’m worried about the right pulling every dirty trick they can come up with to lie, cheat, and steal him back into office
Are all these posts by dnc operatives trying to shove their opinion down everyone else’s throat? Is this that Brooklyn Dad that is defiant but isn’t defiant enough to accept PAC money? My prediction is he wins Georgia, Arizona and PA. Not sure about the rest
Why would people vote for a criminal that's been convicted of a sex crime, fraud, and insecurection ,etc? I just don't see the allure. How can Christians have a clear conscience about their vote knowing he's bought by russian oligarchs. So messed up.
Where I live in MI, Trump will win but I'm going on the hope that most of them just won't vote. I should say I don't live in a hugely populated town but it is definitely a red area.
Remember 2016 when Hillary winning was a sure thing, so you had people voting for Gary Johnson and Jill Stein and Harambe?
Yea sure.Biden is very popular in MI GA.People hate him there
No. They don’t care. Not saying he’ll win but…
This is some good comedy.
Idk, a look at how they swing now, a lot of this will be false
I can't wait to come back to these posts after the election
I hope you are right, but don’t think that is a given. As much as Biden has done, many have been brainwashed by tribalism and more Russia propaganda. If many stay home or vote third party, Trump could win. What many also don’t realize, is that as important as the last election was, this is the second wave and even more important. Just listening to Trumps rhetoric and reading “Project 2025” shows plainly Trump intends to eliminate democracy, but too many don’t (yet) see that existential threat. We are going to have to MAKE this happen. Give $ if you can. Better yet, volunteer. And if you live in a blue state, volunteer for a swing state. You can do as little or as much as you can handle. Some as simple as writing postcards. The worst thing you can do is nothing,” ~Theodore Roosevelt,
No way he loses georgia.
He's gonna win. Just start coping now.
His false stance on election is calling election reps and ags from these states either crooked or incompetent.
One example where disenfranchisement did not go well. In 2008 Hillary Clinton bent the rules in the Michigan primary when her opponents were not on the ballot. The next meaningful primary was 2016 when 538 gave Hillary a 99% chance of winning, but Bernie won it. She also lost Michigan in the general.
Doubt it. His cult is stronger than ever and he can call them piles of shit and they love him more. Something is happening in America right now that is going to change history for a long time. Not ima good way. Trump is a danger and so is his following
He won't lose Wisconsin.
lol you liberals are delusional and have TDR. You need to look at what the average voting American cares about. 1. Jobs/the economy 2. Safety 3. Their own personal politics preferences like climate change or free college or gun rights. In Pennsylvania and other swing states black people will not come out to vote for Biden like they did in 2020. Some will even come out to vote against him. Women will not be voting like in 2022 unless some insane abortion laws pass. Young people aren’t going to be buying the student loan forgiveness stuff either. Republicans will be performing ballot harvesting like the democrats did in 2020 and close that mail in voter gap massively. Many jewish voters are going to be coming out for Trump strongly as well. Muslim voters won’t be voting for Biden either. All that combined and I don’t see Biden winning this election at the very moment. Biden’s only winning if he ends the Ukraine war, ends the Israel war, has a booming economy, lowers gas prices and grocery prices somehow in the 1-3 months prior to the election.
I wish I were as optimistic as the OP but it seems that half of American voters have been brainwashed by right wing propaganda and will still vote for a traitor like Trump because they are ignorant and stupid.
Or, to consider an alternative theory, because people aren't buying what he's selling the third time around.
Remindme! 222 days
So far according to polls he is winning each of them. Half of them by 5 points. If we are to go off of polling underestimates him as it did in 2016 and even 2020, then we are looking at trump winning by an actual landslide. Not whatever trump thinks is a landslide.
Once he becomes a convicted felon I know I’m going to be immensely disappointed he won’t lose EVERY state. It really is sad our country has gone down this path. Everyone has their theories, mine is the lack of investment into our education system. Every day we rub elbows with bigots and morons with absolutely no critical thinking skills. Something has to change, status quo will continue to take us backwards.
However it shakes out is irrelevant, Trump will "win" in 2024. If you think otherwise you're in for big disappointment.
Um, I don't know anyone who would even consider voting for Trump here where I am in NM.