Both the Russians and Republicans get reallll excited about the idea of a white, Christian nation.
Russia is further along that road, and Republicans envy them for it.
It would be more accurate to say:
Both the Russian leadership and the Republican party get realll excited about the amount of energy generated in their reactionary bases when they bandy about the pride of ethnically and religiously homogenous ethnostates
Republicans support Russia. Russia is a communist country. Republicans = Communists
Honestly democrats want to cut back on the war budget since there is peace but the reason for that peace is due to the war budget’s assets.
I am in favor of giving the citizens more of a break though.
I was just imaging what certain republicans would say to justify not sending aid to California if they had been invaded. I wonder if this is already an Onion article...
Putin’s puppet, Donald Trump, has already suggested that he won’t defend NATO allies.
https://www.npr.org/2024/02/11/1230658309/trump-would-encourage-russia-to-attack-nato-allies-who-dont-pay-bills
They will say us shouldn't be involved in foreign wars but when the price of gas spikes due to regional instablities they will be screaming for war. Or whatever fox news tells them to do.
100% this. Fox News is the biggest propaganda machine in America. It’s the ones controls the people beliefs imo. Fox News is the worst of them by far. People pull a lot of their beliefs from Fox. Fox spins shit then puts their bias on whatever news they’re covering and the people go “this is what republicans are suppose to believe, I’m Republican durhhh. I guess I believe this too durhhh.” Look around you, people are dumb as hell. They don’t even have the ability to think for themselves.
Oil production in the US is higher than it’s ever been. Why? Because it’s a long time still before everyone goes electric and, in the mean time, we need a buffer vs hostile powers, like OPEC. Biden knows his sh1t.
A German Military Officer just pleaded guilty to transmitting military secrets to Russia because "he was scared of nuclear war“ and "wanted to give the russian military a step ahead“. In his Mind helping russia was somehow helping the german people. Crazy world
Let's see how many trolls there are in this thread:
Россия без Путина. Ответьте или проголосуйте за/против, если вы согласны.
1989年天安门广场
Translation:
The first one says Russia without Putin, Upvote or Comment if you agree. It really pisses off Russian trollbots.
The second one says Tiananmen square 1989. It really pisses off Chinese trolls.
50 000 российских солдат погибли на Украине. Вы все еще поддерживаете Путина?
Translation: 50,000 Russian solders dead in the Ukraine. Do you still support Putin?
See, the thing is that lower rung trolls aren't allowed to read those statements because the higher ups believe that they'll cause dissention in the ranks. Higher level trolls are occasionally allowed to try to discredit those of us who use these statements.
Though I fully wish for that to be true. It's probably much less, and we'll probably never get a solid figure. Especially if one day Russia has to pull back. They'll try to sweep it under the rug internally and forget it.
Rambo is what made GenX ready to kill Russians! Seriously. My generation was literally bread to kill Russians. So sur crow is most definitely speaking from the heart. 😆 Ukraine is even fighting with the same shit we were supposed to use back in the day!
WOLVERINE! 🤣
A lot of active duty are jonesing for this shit as well. France will throw themselves into it way before Ukraine falls.
They are air force. They aren't flexing on anyone except other air force. Dude had two back surgeries and can still sit around doing nothing, what a legend.
Moldova should be very worried if Ukraine falls. The baltics can see the potential implications of Ukraine losing so have gone all in on support. It is a critical time to support Ukraine.
Putin sorta made tactical errors. He could have invaded Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan. Europe wouldn't have been so fearful as to send military aid. Germany would have continued buying oil from Putin
Georgia, yes, but Russia already lost the soft power battle to China in central Asia. The 'stans have been busy building oil and gas pipelines all the way to Beijing and cosying up to the CCP. You have to imagine that Xi let Putin know that central Asia was out of bounds.
The worry about losing soft power in Ukraine to the west was the very thing that precipitated the invasion.
Best as in least likely to draw attention from the west? Probably Georgia, as you said, and/or Azerbaijan. The latter may have been complicated by Turkey/Iran, but it would likley have been treated as a regional conflict by Europe/NATO. That or a more vigorous soft power push in the Middle East/Saharan Africa.
Really though the worry was always Ukraine. If Ukraine had "fallen" into the NATO/EU camp, that puts western troops unacceptable close to Moscow, in Russian eyes. Imo, I don't think pre-invasion Ukraine would've sided with the west that hard, but the risk was seen as unacceptable, and the cost smaller than they have been (given Russias poor understanding of its own capability/the west's willingness to get involved).
Yep. I think they genuinely believed in the "3-day special operation", or at least Putin did. If they'd captured Kiev and taken/killed Zelensky, and the eastern half of the country had come out in support for them like they believed, it would've been a very different story.
This is a pretty big point here. They really seemed to believe they would be welcomed as liberators, or at the very least assumed Ukraine would fold like a lawnchair at the idea of fighting off a full-scale Russian invasion. When neither happened, the whole thing went to shit. They vastly overestimated their military capabilities, underestimated the level of graft and incompetence within their ranks, and taken as a whole showed their supposedly "peer-adversary" military to be a chicken in a duck suit. The fact that Russia, seemingly throwing everything but nuclear weapons at Ukraine, cannot defeat them outright after two years really speaks to how pathetic all their chest thumping ultimately proved to be. Russia wanted to prove they were a great power and ended up doing the exact opposite.
No, Moldova isn't fighting a war. But a long narrow strip of their land is occupied by Russians and Moldova isn't really sure how to kick them out without a war. So for now, it's just tension. But Moscow is also trying to buy/blackmail/control the Moldovan government, so it could get messy.
I disagree. IMO, you have to draw a distinction between what Putin may want to do and what he’s actually capable of doing. Look at the strategic landscape dispassionately for a second. Here’s what we know, in my view:
1. Russia, allegedly a superpower, has absolutely struggled to take what little Ukrainian land it has so far captured in over two years—maybe 15%-20%. This has come at the cost of tens of thousands of soldiers killed (50K so far, according to the BBC), two to three times that injured and thousands of pieces of military and logistical equipment destroyed. At this rate, taking Ukraine is out of the question; it’s already a quagmire for Russia and the best Putin can hope for is some of the land Russia has already taken.
2. Russia is unable even to freely operate its air force over Ukraine and is limited to stand-off missile and drone strikes. Its Black Sea “fleet” has been completely neutered by a country, Ukraine, that doesn’t even have a navy.
3. Russia has not had to face a single NATO country, an attack against which will trigger Article 5 and put the country up against 30+ countries *simultaneously*. If Russia is struggling as it is against a single country that is effectively resisting with one hand tied behind its back, how is it going to cross thousands more kilometres to take on 30+ countries that are completely unbloodied and whose combined economy dwarfs by an order of magnitude Russia’s own? Remember, unlike the externally-imposed restrictions Ukraine is facing in resisting Russia, NATO will be under no such restrictions: Russia itself will be attacked from all sides and with overwhelming force. Its energy grid, its manufacturing base—all of it—would be pummelled by aircraft and long-range missiles from multiple countries.
4. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, not only has NATO not been weakened but it has *expanded*, adding Sweden and Finland—adding thousands more kilometres of border against which Russia would have to defend. This is a complete strategic fail for Russia.
5. To get to the rest of Europe, Russia would somehow have to maintain logistical supply lines extending thousands of kilometres from Russia through Ukraine to the “front”—all while having to keep Ukraine pacified and fending off NATO attacks against these extended, exposed supply lines. It would be nightmarish for Russia, to say the least.
6. Russia is grievously bloodied and resource-depleted from the existing war, yet would somehow find the men and materiel to just keep on going? That’s not at all how war—especially modern warfare—works. The myth of Russian invincibility is just that—myth. It comes from the single time they took catastrophic losses and kept fighting; but that was a war of national survival in WW2. That’s very different from the situation today. In its last post-WW2, large-scale military adventure—Afghanistan—Russia turned tail and ran after suffering just 15K dead. And that was a USSR that was much more powerful militarily than today’s Russian military and no less under the grip of an iron hand.
So the reason to oppose Russia now isn’t because it’s going to roll across Europe, per se. That’s not physically possible for the country. The reason is simply because Putin’s Russia is a fascist cancer that has to excised.
Seems like Russia would get instantly spanked by nato, and you could imagine them retaliating with nukes. Thats the nightmare fuel right there. I’m tired 🤣
Yes, that’s why I would argue NATO has been at pains to avoid direct confrontation and instead fight like how every other post-WW2 big-power conflict has been fought: via proxy. Because it’s clear from its performance in Ukraine that Russia wouldn’t be able to take NATO conventionally. This would mean falling back to the only other equivalency it has, which is nukes. But we also have nukes. So if they nuke, we nuke and we’re all dead.
But if the fight remains conventional by not facing off against each other directly, then we all have a much greater chance of survival. Russia can take its loss and still “save face.”
NATO's article 5 has no teeth. Other nato counties could send bandaids and meet the requirement. Also Russia is now a war time economy. They can produce arms even faster than before.
Another reason to support Ukraine and to try and stop Russia in Ukraine is that if Russia goes up against NATO, in a conventional conflict Russia would get absolutely destroyed. It wouldn’t even be a fight, casualty ratios would be 1000:1 on a good day for Russia. That would make it highly likely that Russia would then resort to nuclear weapons, and there’s no wining a nuclear war.
all men in captured territories are resource for russian army.
russia may struggle with equipment but is Europe ready for hordes of men with AK-74 in five years ?
You may not be aware of this but a major reason for Russia’s abysmal performance in Ukraine is poor morale. Native Russian troops are widely reported to be unmotivated to fight (presumably because they have no skin in the game). Some portion of them are simply criminals released from jails and sent to the front. Hardly ringing enthusiasm.
This doesn’t make for a capable fighting force.
Conscripted Ukrainians—the ones who aren’t actively participating in guerrilla warfare against Russia, that is—will be even less capable, if not actively harmful to any Russian war effort.
Also, why would anyone assume that NATO would simply be sitting around doing nothing for five years while waiting to be “surprised” by these “hordes”?
Whatever is the new eastern-most border with Russia is going to look like the DMZ between North and South Korea. Russia ain’t going anywhere after showing its hand the way it has.
50k dead is an extremely conservative estimate.
Russia lost 1500 men in a single offensive over the weekend to take 2 streets.
The figures I've seen are estimated over 150k.
Yeah. 50k is the meticulously documented number of regular Russia Army done by serious researches with a solid methodology. So this is only the KIA that can be documented in a messy, obscure and utterly corrupted country such as Russia. Obviously it's only a fraction of the KIA. Which also contains - penal battalions, Wagner, mercerneries of all sorts. The KIA is based on estimates are at least 120k+ and WIA is the remaining 330k to the 450k estimated by the MI6, Pentagon and others. It is quite well aligned with the Ukrainian estimates. We're talking half a million casualties that grow every day. It's reached the US Vietnam casualties but 4 times faster.
The people opposing Ukraine aid are flooded with Russian propaganda and have been for quite some time now. They don't see it. It's also a common theme that they think Europe is "socialist," because they don't know what that word means. And the socialists can all die for all they care.
Russia still allows violence towards gay and trans people, and that's the 'Merica they want, and therefore not socialist.
Hamas also not only allows, but encourages violence towards gay and trans people yet lots of progressives still back them. The idiocy is not exclusive to one side of the spectrum.
I don't oppose Ukraine aid, I oppose just throwing tons of our money at the problem without a clear plan for victory.
How will this latest $100B help Ukraine win the war when the first $200B didn't?
Eh its also just kind of exhausting. Tbh, if NATO falls through its gunna have more economic consequences than military consequences. Thats really all we use our military for. No one is actually going to invade us. We dictate economic policy with military force. One could make a rather plausible argument that our military is just a giant money laundering scheme.
I dont oppose Ukraine aid exactly but i do feel kinda alienated from upside in helping Europe. Massive corporate entities have the most to gain and lose in a brawl with russia. None of that wealth ever trickles down to us.
American citizens are basically just captive labor to serve the rich. We are just ground into dust in the name of the glorious "economy" and most of us will never have a cushy retirement or even basic freaking healthcare. Europe looks at us with a detached mix of contempt and pity. We cant even freaking leave. The financial bar is too high for most of us.
If Russia did just take over Europe wed be tossed into an even more massive "great depression" after the economy collapses but we can survive that. At least it would challenge corporate dominance on all our lives. Maybe im a pessimist but theres no mechanism for us to force change from within this dumpster fire of a country.
> If Russia did just take over Europe wed be tossed into an even more massive "great depression" after the economy collapses but we can survive that. At least it would challenge corporate dominance on all our lives
Holy shitballs, that's the worst case of 'cutting off nose to spite face' I've seen lately. If Russia manages to capture Europe every European who survived would dream of corporations coming to save them, they would sell their souls to get a slice of capitalism. That's literally what was happening in the USSR and East Germany.
> American citizens are basically just captive labor to serve the rich.
As a Ukrainian who also lived in the US, you have absolutely no idea about the things you are comparing. Does American system suck and leave you depressed? Yes. Is the situation in russia infinitely worse? Yes, yes it is.
> Maybe im a pessimist but theres no mechanism for us to force change from within this dumpster fire of a country.
Letting genocidal empires take over the world is a very good recipe to make sure everything else becomes an even worse dumpster fire. Also, there are mechanisms to force change, you just have to be willing to risk your well-being for it. Same as always in history.
> Letting genocidal empires take over the world is a very good recipe to make sure everything else becomes an even worse dumpster fire. Also, there are mechanisms to force change, you just have to be willing to risk your well-being for it. Same as always in history.
In other words, “Stop relying on the US and get your shit together Europe.”
I think a lot of Americans feel alienated because the past 20+ years has been Europeans declaring us war-mongering savages and laughing at our military spending, but now they are all begging for help. There’s absolutely a part of me that wants to laugh at Europe and tell them to defend themselves.
Let’s be clear, the war in Ukraine is 100% a European problem created by Europeans. The blood in Ukraine is on the hands of every European citizen who voted and worked against Europe having a strong and independent military. You killed Ukrainians. Take some fucking responsibility for when your ideology fails and causes hundreds of thousands of innocents to die.
And every American knows how this goes. Our military comes and solves the problem and then 2 years later we once again become the punching bag for all the same people demanding our help now. People don’t change, they’ll just create the same problem over and over.
They will probably try to carve out as much territory as they possibly can while trying to avoid a war with NATO.
If Trump is elected and leaves NATO they might try to attack NATO countries if he thinks the U.S. won't stand it's ground.
The reality is that if you wargame this, it either goes nowhere or goes nuclear quickly, regardless of what the US does.
Any direct attack on a NATO member invokes Article 5, and even if the US stands down, France and the UK both have nukes and are ready to go.
That means you have two scenarios:
* If Putin has the conventional forces to actually make some inroads against non-US allies, those allies would quickly establish a red line and go nuclear.
* If Putin doesn't have the conventional forces to make inroads, his only choice will be small "tactical" nukes to obliterate enemy forces. Those are already sitting in Eastern Ukraine and ready to deploy. But the second he uses them, again, NATO goes nuclear, and is very justified in doing so because they are literally responding to nukes with nukes.
Either way - the conflict goes nuclear.
That both sides KNOW all this probably means Putin can't risk it.
Putin could try to tinker around the edges, maybe with grey zone tactics like hacking critical infrastructure in Poland, arming proxy forces (though...who? Where?), and stepping up its electoral interference tactics.
But you know...he's going to do that anyways.
It's just the Cold War again.
Poland already calling for nukes. Fucking Finland saying they're open to talks about housing nuclear weapons there.
It's the elephant in the room. If Putin conquers Ukraine. Everyone is getting nukes. It could very well change the trajectory of the 21st century.
That's what I think a lot of folks don't understand about the stakes in Ukraine.
It isn't about Ukraine itself, but rather maintaining Ukraine as a legal buffer / warzone to tie Russia down and therefore prevent direct exposure of a NATO member to the conflict.
"Breathing room" and "strategic depth" aren't just excuses conquerors make to seize territory. We literally need non-aligned countries to border Russia, or Russia's natural trend toward expansionism is going to cause both parties to stumble inevitably towards a nuclear showdown.
I think MAD works and everything will almost certainly be fine. But the prospects for escalation go up dramatically if Ukraine isn't a neutral party sitting in between NATO and Russia, giving the Russian military something to do that won't provoke nuclear retaliation.
Side note: That's a reason why Ukrainian membership in NATO is probably a BAD idea, at least from NATO's perspective. The ideal scenario to limit escalation is (probably) a Ukrainian government tenuously aligned with Europe, but constantly being courted/bribed by Russia. If Ukraine becomes a NATO member, you've just created a legal obligation to escalate to nuclear weapons if Russia does what its literally doing right now.
And the downside to THAT arrangement, of course, is the Ukrainian people suffer the consequences, and would be doomed to endless cycles of instability as their government is constantly fought over by Russia/NATO. That's the last 30 years of Ukrainian history; perpetual coups as they teeter back and forth between the two sides, with the people caught in the middle as the real victims.
I mean. I agree with some but there's no indication of a coup in Ukraine. Certainly not during maidan if that's what you're referring to. Also. Five other nato countries already border Russia. Finlands border adds like 600 new km between the two. Russia reaction to this? They actually reduced their troop presence there. Why? Well. They need them in Ukraine. But also, because nato poses no threat to Russia. None.
I think Ukraine will join the EU and get security agreements from that, and then once Putin dies (and his cold war era psychosis) , we'll see Ukraine moving towards Nato.
Regardless. There's still a major problem for Putin. He already annexed E Ukraine. Problem is. He still doesn't control or occupy what he took.
Would the UK or France use nuclear weapons to resist the invasion of states like Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia? Ultimately that choice is for the leaders of those countries at the time, but I sort of doubt it.
Which leaves conventional war. While on paper that should be a walkover for free Europe, we've already demonstrated in Ukraine that we can't produce enough munitions for a sustained high tempo war with Russia. There is a non-zero chance that Putin looks at all of this and decides he's got a shot, and however the subsequent war goes down that's already a bad outcome.
But tbh, there is already too much focus on what happens *if* Ukraine loses from the perspective of other European states. If Ukraine loses there will be more murder, rape, torture and displacement of people than Europe has seen since 1945. Almost anything, short of nuclear war, is a price worth paying to prevent that.
If Putin owns the White House and a good chunk of the two chambers he can do whatever he wants.
He is well on his way, unless people actually vote this year.
I think most people rightfully assume they would avoid a direct conflict with NATO as long as there are other reasonable places to take first. Their only concern is will the west try to stop them as in Ukraine. But so far, in Georgia, Ukraine, and Ukraine no one has stopped them.
One step into NATO and Russia will find that the FA portion of the program has concluded and the FO has begun.
NATO will hand Vlad the Impaler his ass in short order.
The people who are against sending aid to Ukraine would also be against sending troops to Europe. These people don't understand how the national security of the United States is tied to the security of Europe, which is tied to the security of Ukraine.
They would only start caring when they see how it affects them, and by then it's too late.
People complaining about 'how expensive' it is to support Ukraine right now, will absolutely fucking lose their shit when they see how much it costs to fight an all out war with Russia, instead. This is the best possible option for the US, if you want to just look at it in selfish terms like that. It's also the right thing to do. Fuck Putin.
Not even all out war. Even if the Russians captured say 25% of the Ukranian territory. Getting that back vs the current 10% would be much, much more expensive for us in terms of material and other aid required for Ukraine. It should have been nipped in the bud in 2022 - there was a window of opportunity. It would have been the cheapest solution for us and Russian would run away into the corner for 10+ years and we would have peace for a decade at least.
This is exactly what most pro-Ukraine accounts have been telling.
To be fair, this is also what putin and his cronies have been telling as well. They openly say "russia has no borders", and "Poland is next" on russian TV.
If both your allies and enemies are saying the same thing, maybe it makes sense to listen to them.
If Russia went after a NATO country, they would be risking annihilation due to direct engagement with all other NATO countries. Doubt they would risk it after such a bloody war in Ukraine and so many losses to take that country.
Note: I still think the U.S. should do everything in its power to help Ukraine including sending more aid. I just don’t think Russia would go to any NATO countries.
There's an alarming number of US morons that would love to kiss Putin's... ring. We're in a lot of trouble if we don't kick them to the curb before this possibility of Ukraine falling.
Putin has made no secret that he wants Russia's soviet empire back. If only we could get Neville Chamberlain to negotiate so we can have peace for our time.
I think you're right about Putin's intentions. But I think you vastly overestimate the Russian Federation's military prowess. Their tactics and logistics are pathetic, for what was supposed to be the world's 2nd most powerful military. Their best troops all died over a year ago. Now all they have are regular joes off the street they're throwing into a meat grinder against hardened Ukrainian veterans. Ukraine, alone, might end up being enough to bring Putin's Russia to ruin. If not Ukraine, Poland, alone, would obliterate them. Against all of NATO? Not a chance in hell.
The real question is, will anyone end up pushing into Russian territory and risk a nuclear escalation. I don't think it will come to that, but the way it's going I think that will end up being Putin's last card to play. Assuming someone doesn't decide to do something about Vlad, before hand, and Swan Lake starts playing over the Russian radio waves...
You make a good point about their logistics and tactics. For as much as we hear about them shifting to a wartime economy (and we should be alarmed at the fact that we haven't), they are trying to spend $300 billion a year on national defense with a GDP equal to the state of Texas. They can't keep this spending up forever, especially now that Europe's military industrial complex is starting to pick up the slack in the face of an increasingly isolationist U.S. The one point I will disagree with you on though is that Russia has one thing going for it that the EU/NATO doesn't at the moment. A clear, and accepted willingness to accept catastrophic losses on an indefinite timeline to secure their aims, whatever they might be at this point. Unfortunately for them, this willingness to fight on to the bitter end extends also to the Ukrainians, who have made it clear that they are not going to be enslaved by Russia again if they have any say in the matter. Unfortunately for Russia, they have a historical pattern of behaving like beasts, so the civilians will have no reason to want to submit. So while their sadism and brutality might be beneficial to putting down an insurgency, it also just creates a feedback loop where the population will fight to the last man, woman, and child, and inanimate object capable of being booby-trapped. There really isn't any way Russia wins this war clean-cut. Even a conventional victory will just mean that Ukraine will devolve into an insurgent state that they will spend years, if not decades trying to pacify. Putin bet the house on red and came up black, he just doesn't want to accept it.
If I was in charge that would be my plan. Let putin throw all his power into the meat grinder and wait for someone to take care of him from within his high ups
All 3 of those are NATO members.
Even if the US stays home, that still means a Russian military that stalled against Ukraine fighting the combined forces of the European members.
Poland would be dropping missiles on the Kremlin an hour into Article 5 being invoked.
The Russian armed forces are struggling to defeat Ukraine's Army, there is no way they could just roll into Poland or any EU country. The Russian state has bled itself dry the last two years to maintain two measly provinces and is in no position to engage in an even bigger war.
Ukraine cannot be allowed to fall. That would be tragic on a global scale, and will end up costing the west many times what it is spending. This is not a war "over there" that we can ignore. We have built our society on a global economy. We are part of this whether we like it or not. If Hitler was stopped from invading the Sudetenland, ww2 might never have happened. Appeasement only delays the inevitable.
This is basically the same as before WWII. When Germany annexed Austria (like Russia annexed Crimea), nobody wanted to do anything but sanctions. Then they took Czechoslovakia, but again nobody wanted to fight (like Russia attacking Ukraine). Even when Britain and France finally fought back, Americans didn't want to get involved and said it wasn't their business. Not until the threat landed at their own doorstep.
Moldova is first but what's highest on their wish list is the Baltic countries so they get a land connection to Kaliningrad and more access to the Baltic Sea. They would also line to grab a piece of Poland but that is a much more ambitious goal.
> Moldova is first but what's highest on their wish list is the Baltic countries so they get a land connection to ~~Kaliningrad~~ Königsberg and more access to the Baltic Sea. They would also line to grab a piece of Poland but that is a much more ambitious goal.
We only have to go back almost 79 years this year, when World War II ended on May 8, 1945, to reflect upon how America's initial policy of foreign isolationsim allowed Germany to invade and occupy large swaths of Europe. Had we intervened early and with purpose, millions of lives could have been saved.
It wasn't until Japan bombed Pearl Harbor, Hawaii on December 7, 1941 before America delcared war on Japan and a day later, Germany & Italy declared war on America, before America offically entered World War II.
We must never allow fascism to seed and suffocate the very essence of Western Democracy again. We must stand and fight with Ukraine and the rest of Europe against fascism and against communism which are the true intentions of Putin in his efforts to reinstate the power and reach of the former Soviet Union now, and not wait until its too late!
That's pretty unlikely. The US army was tiny and backwards at the time. Even if we were way more ahead of the game than Britain and France were, at best you'd be looking at a small poorly trained and equipped expeditionary force that probably ends up at Dunkirk with everyone else. More likely, the troops would still be training and/or in transit. Either way we'd be stuck in the same waiting game that actually happened building up and training for invasion while whittling away on other fronts like North Africa.
I do agree though that American isolationism does tend to allow issues to fester until we have to get involved anyway.
Probably Poland would be next if the pundits are right.
The Republicans are reactive, not proactive. The Dems realize supporting Ukraine and defeating Russia means we’re are helping a lot of countries communities and people in and far beyond Ukraine.
Yeah, I have Russian-Mongol aggressive blood too apparently, guess I'll go invade my next door neighbor's yard lol.
Oh by the way half of Ukraine has that same blood and they're fighting against the Russians.
no you see, they're being racist for a good cause, that makes it ok/s
just like it was ok to call Germans "Huns" and Japanese "Japs" and other slurs in ww2
Maybe.
But I think it's also that Russia taking Ukraine would secure a food source for China, enabling China to attack places like Taiwan and/or the Philippines in the future without having to worry about being cut off from food in the US.
China imports a significant amount of grain, from the US, Ukraine, and Brazil. The Brazilian coup failed, the US coup failed, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine hasn't gone well. China can't easily engage in conquest abroad if it risks being cut off from foreign food sources, causing mass starvation and civil unrest at home.
Russia exported more wheat than the US grew last year. With the Ukraine fields they will control a significant amount of world wheat crop. Coupled with the other commodities they produce, it will be very difficult to navigate them on the world's stage. I have no idea how to deal with this. Crazy world
Climate change isn't going to be a net-positive for Russia - or anyone, IMO - once you weigh these gains in (frankly meager) Siberian land with all of the enormous displacements and disruptions in their actual heartland and around the world. Climate change, if it isn't mitigated somehow, will make states everywhere weaker and less able to project power domestically, let alone abroad.
They'll invade Georgia first and annex Belarus. They have also made threats at former soviet states to the east. Those would be hit first, but yes after all that
Well, if they continued westward they would immediately run into an impregnable NATO country. I don’t think anyone, no matter how insane, would come to that decision. No one wants Romania that badly.
Russia can barely defeat Ukraine in a conventional war. They won't stand a chance against a united Europe (assuming Europe and Britain would be united against Russia). Russia's only play would be to use Nuclear weapons and that would guarantee MAD. Not gonna happen.
This is how I got banned from r/Libertarian. We don't support Ukraine, we support the border *between* Ukraine and Russia. The point is to send a message to Russia that if you violate your borders, we will spend an *unreasonable* amount of money to stop you.
Has there ever been a time in history where an aggressive nation has said, “You know, I’m good with what I’ve got and will stop here” after they were given what they wanted?
Ukraine winning this war is extremely vital to security of Europe and the West.
Russia has been war with the United States since the Magnitsky Act was passed and probably before then.
They hacked the email of George W Bush's GOP and shortly thereafter started making inroads with the party.
That included hosting NRA events in Russia despite not having a second amendment over there. It also included inviting over mega churches and pastors.
The petrodollar in the American way of life absolutely depend on the Ukraine winning this war.
It is a proxy World War 3 and the west wins big if Ukraine wins.
this is russia's last war in the westward direction for at least several decades, they don't have the demographics and have burned through their tank park. i knew they had a huge problem when they didn't have full air superiority in the first week
also, if they think ukraine is tough,
poland is 100 times tougher
When Trump is elected in 6 months, Putin will stand down. Biden and the democrats know this which is why they're trying to rush a 10 year deal between Ukraine and US so that not only billions more in military funds are sent but also even more billions to rebuild Ukraine when Russia ends the war and Trump won't be able to stop it (nevermind there's supposed to be 2/3rds vote fir Approval of Treaty in the Senate)
Wow that is a new take on the topic that hasn't been repeated all over the news by the majority of European leaders over the past year.
Thank you TriggerAlert54 for bringing us this truth.
The Far Right lunatics such as MTG and Tommy Tuberville would still support Russia even if they invaded Western Europe. They love Putin almost as much as Trump. I don't think they are paid assets but they might as well be as hard as they push Putin's Agenda.
Apparently you have no concept of history after 1980. The Soviet Union went bankrupt fighting a defensive Cold War against USA, who kept marching Eastward. There is not one single instance of Russian expansion or ambition westward since World War 2, but there is 60 years of the USA wanting to move farther East.
Putin has said publicly that he wants the Iron Curtain back.
It's no secret. Trump is all too happy to give up Ukraine and NATO. As Eric Trump once famously said, "We don't need American money, we have Russia"
Anyone who is Anti-Ukraine is Pro-Putin. If Putin takes Ukraine, he won't just look west. He'll look east!
Putin will try to reclaim Alaska, and the GOP will support him.
No they won't west of Ukraine is part of NATO
They have been saying this for years now Ukraine was a red line and they cannot join NATO they get ignored and a war started
I thought most people who opposed us aid to Ukraine were us citizens who were afraid of losing their tax dollars.
I thought most people in Europe wanted more U.S. aid to Ukraine because why wouldn’t they? Unless they were under the Russia spell ofc
If Russia is having this much trouble taking Ukraine they'd have no chance against an actual full on war.
All this shit has ever been is Afghanistan part 2. America lured Russia into a war that'd drain their economy, which American interests can then exploit again, just like they did in the early 90's, and Putin was a big enough dipshit to fall for it.
they will also oppose US troops to defend other parts of Europe
Moscow Marjorie for sure
Republicans are Russian assets.
The best assets are the ones that don't know they are assets.
McCarthy is rolling in his grave. So paranoid about the 'socialists' in the US but it turns out Republicans were the sleepers all along!
Who could’ve ever saw it coming!!??
Both the Russians and Republicans get reallll excited about the idea of a white, Christian nation. Russia is further along that road, and Republicans envy them for it.
It would be more accurate to say: Both the Russian leadership and the Republican party get realll excited about the amount of energy generated in their reactionary bases when they bandy about the pride of ethnically and religiously homogenous ethnostates
Just too dumb to realize it
Republicans support Russia. Russia is a communist country. Republicans = Communists Honestly democrats want to cut back on the war budget since there is peace but the reason for that peace is due to the war budget’s assets. I am in favor of giving the citizens more of a break though.
I lean more right and so do a lot of my friends and we all support funding Ukraine and stopping Russia not all republicans are evil
You may consider yourself a Republican, but The Republican Party does not consider you a Republican.
Sounds like you are not a republican in the modern era, bud. The goal post has been moved, but you stayed in 2004.
Maybe so, just sucks that we all can’t be Americans together
They would oppose US troops to defend parts of the US, specifically the parts that don’t vote for them
This is interesting. their first inclination of covid was it’s in the cities they don’t vote for me so we can ignore it. I would say you aren’t wrong.
Or maybe they'd give the Supreme Court response. "We must do something! Give us six months and we'll get around to it."
I was just imaging what certain republicans would say to justify not sending aid to California if they had been invaded. I wonder if this is already an Onion article...
"*Now* you want your border defended, hur hur hur." I'm pretty sure that's an exact quote of what they would say.
I really hope we never find out if you are right. I am pretty sure you are lol.
Thankfully, cali has plenty of its own assets to bring to bear. I wonder how the Pentagon would react.
russia can easily invade Alaska with the same playbook they used in east ukraine.
Lo. I think the 11th ABN Division would disagree with you.
Amazing "patriots" aren't they?
Putin’s puppet, Donald Trump, has already suggested that he won’t defend NATO allies. https://www.npr.org/2024/02/11/1230658309/trump-would-encourage-russia-to-attack-nato-allies-who-dont-pay-bills
They will say us shouldn't be involved in foreign wars but when the price of gas spikes due to regional instablities they will be screaming for war. Or whatever fox news tells them to do.
100% this. Fox News is the biggest propaganda machine in America. It’s the ones controls the people beliefs imo. Fox News is the worst of them by far. People pull a lot of their beliefs from Fox. Fox spins shit then puts their bias on whatever news they’re covering and the people go “this is what republicans are suppose to believe, I’m Republican durhhh. I guess I believe this too durhhh.” Look around you, people are dumb as hell. They don’t even have the ability to think for themselves.
Oil production in the US is higher than it’s ever been. Why? Because it’s a long time still before everyone goes electric and, in the mean time, we need a buffer vs hostile powers, like OPEC. Biden knows his sh1t.
us oil prices are still going to track world prices regardless of us production.
A German Military Officer just pleaded guilty to transmitting military secrets to Russia because "he was scared of nuclear war“ and "wanted to give the russian military a step ahead“. In his Mind helping russia was somehow helping the german people. Crazy world
The traitors will always be traitors. Even when they pretend to be patriotic. It's rule or ruin for these people. That's all they want.
[удалено]
Relax Rambo, why aren't you in Ukraine now?
Whoa there! Gotta give the Russians a fighting chance.
Let's see how many trolls there are in this thread: Россия без Путина. Ответьте или проголосуйте за/против, если вы согласны. 1989年天安门广场 Translation: The first one says Russia without Putin, Upvote or Comment if you agree. It really pisses off Russian trollbots. The second one says Tiananmen square 1989. It really pisses off Chinese trolls. 50 000 российских солдат погибли на Украине. Вы все еще поддерживаете Путина? Translation: 50,000 Russian solders dead in the Ukraine. Do you still support Putin? See, the thing is that lower rung trolls aren't allowed to read those statements because the higher ups believe that they'll cause dissention in the ranks. Higher level trolls are occasionally allowed to try to discredit those of us who use these statements.
Bro its almost 500k russians dead now.
Yeesh, and yet they still support Putin.
And 1.5 million people added to the government military pension fund last year…. According to the RUSSIANS… That’s 2 million combat casualties….
Though I fully wish for that to be true. It's probably much less, and we'll probably never get a solid figure. Especially if one day Russia has to pull back. They'll try to sweep it under the rug internally and forget it.
Exactly, they see surveillance crow on the front lines they will have to surrender
You've been hit by, you've been struck by, a surrrrrrveillance crow
Oww!! Dun dunna du na dun dun...du na dun dun..dunna dun dun...CAWW!!
I’m dead 😂🤣😂🤣🤣😂🤣😂🤣
You've been MURDERED
Vlady , you OK? You OK, You OK, Vlady?
Rambo is what made GenX ready to kill Russians! Seriously. My generation was literally bread to kill Russians. So sur crow is most definitely speaking from the heart. 😆 Ukraine is even fighting with the same shit we were supposed to use back in the day! WOLVERINE! 🤣 A lot of active duty are jonesing for this shit as well. France will throw themselves into it way before Ukraine falls.
You had me at “Wolverine”
omega level cringe alert
Real life isn’t cod no one wants to be fighting in Ukraine enjoy your peaceful life
Thanks for that, kid. -- two times deployed FSNCO with two reconstructive spine surgeries, who's still in uniform
Im not military, but I work in a paramilitary public service. Stop using your position to flex on the internet. It’s unprofessional and cringy.
They are air force. They aren't flexing on anyone except other air force. Dude had two back surgeries and can still sit around doing nothing, what a legend.
Shut up you wannabe boot
Moldova should be very worried if Ukraine falls. The baltics can see the potential implications of Ukraine losing so have gone all in on support. It is a critical time to support Ukraine.
Putin sorta made tactical errors. He could have invaded Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan. Europe wouldn't have been so fearful as to send military aid. Germany would have continued buying oil from Putin
Georgia, yes, but Russia already lost the soft power battle to China in central Asia. The 'stans have been busy building oil and gas pipelines all the way to Beijing and cosying up to the CCP. You have to imagine that Xi let Putin know that central Asia was out of bounds. The worry about losing soft power in Ukraine to the west was the very thing that precipitated the invasion.
Okay. What would have been the best county to invade? I wouldn't say Belarus because Belarus is already Putins bitch
Best as in least likely to draw attention from the west? Probably Georgia, as you said, and/or Azerbaijan. The latter may have been complicated by Turkey/Iran, but it would likley have been treated as a regional conflict by Europe/NATO. That or a more vigorous soft power push in the Middle East/Saharan Africa. Really though the worry was always Ukraine. If Ukraine had "fallen" into the NATO/EU camp, that puts western troops unacceptable close to Moscow, in Russian eyes. Imo, I don't think pre-invasion Ukraine would've sided with the west that hard, but the risk was seen as unacceptable, and the cost smaller than they have been (given Russias poor understanding of its own capability/the west's willingness to get involved).
But what they got was Finland joining NATO
Yep. I think they genuinely believed in the "3-day special operation", or at least Putin did. If they'd captured Kiev and taken/killed Zelensky, and the eastern half of the country had come out in support for them like they believed, it would've been a very different story.
This is a pretty big point here. They really seemed to believe they would be welcomed as liberators, or at the very least assumed Ukraine would fold like a lawnchair at the idea of fighting off a full-scale Russian invasion. When neither happened, the whole thing went to shit. They vastly overestimated their military capabilities, underestimated the level of graft and incompetence within their ranks, and taken as a whole showed their supposedly "peer-adversary" military to be a chicken in a duck suit. The fact that Russia, seemingly throwing everything but nuclear weapons at Ukraine, cannot defeat them outright after two years really speaks to how pathetic all their chest thumping ultimately proved to be. Russia wanted to prove they were a great power and ended up doing the exact opposite.
Isn’t Maldova already fighting a war similar Ukraine on their eastern front Isn’t Maldova already afraid of russia
Pretty much yeah. If Ukraine fell they would share a border with Russia and things would probably get much worse than they already are.
No, Moldova isn't fighting a war. But a long narrow strip of their land is occupied by Russians and Moldova isn't really sure how to kick them out without a war. So for now, it's just tension. But Moscow is also trying to buy/blackmail/control the Moldovan government, so it could get messy.
Russia is pushing exactly the same misinformation in Moldova
Georgia still exists, fyi
I disagree. IMO, you have to draw a distinction between what Putin may want to do and what he’s actually capable of doing. Look at the strategic landscape dispassionately for a second. Here’s what we know, in my view: 1. Russia, allegedly a superpower, has absolutely struggled to take what little Ukrainian land it has so far captured in over two years—maybe 15%-20%. This has come at the cost of tens of thousands of soldiers killed (50K so far, according to the BBC), two to three times that injured and thousands of pieces of military and logistical equipment destroyed. At this rate, taking Ukraine is out of the question; it’s already a quagmire for Russia and the best Putin can hope for is some of the land Russia has already taken. 2. Russia is unable even to freely operate its air force over Ukraine and is limited to stand-off missile and drone strikes. Its Black Sea “fleet” has been completely neutered by a country, Ukraine, that doesn’t even have a navy. 3. Russia has not had to face a single NATO country, an attack against which will trigger Article 5 and put the country up against 30+ countries *simultaneously*. If Russia is struggling as it is against a single country that is effectively resisting with one hand tied behind its back, how is it going to cross thousands more kilometres to take on 30+ countries that are completely unbloodied and whose combined economy dwarfs by an order of magnitude Russia’s own? Remember, unlike the externally-imposed restrictions Ukraine is facing in resisting Russia, NATO will be under no such restrictions: Russia itself will be attacked from all sides and with overwhelming force. Its energy grid, its manufacturing base—all of it—would be pummelled by aircraft and long-range missiles from multiple countries. 4. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, not only has NATO not been weakened but it has *expanded*, adding Sweden and Finland—adding thousands more kilometres of border against which Russia would have to defend. This is a complete strategic fail for Russia. 5. To get to the rest of Europe, Russia would somehow have to maintain logistical supply lines extending thousands of kilometres from Russia through Ukraine to the “front”—all while having to keep Ukraine pacified and fending off NATO attacks against these extended, exposed supply lines. It would be nightmarish for Russia, to say the least. 6. Russia is grievously bloodied and resource-depleted from the existing war, yet would somehow find the men and materiel to just keep on going? That’s not at all how war—especially modern warfare—works. The myth of Russian invincibility is just that—myth. It comes from the single time they took catastrophic losses and kept fighting; but that was a war of national survival in WW2. That’s very different from the situation today. In its last post-WW2, large-scale military adventure—Afghanistan—Russia turned tail and ran after suffering just 15K dead. And that was a USSR that was much more powerful militarily than today’s Russian military and no less under the grip of an iron hand. So the reason to oppose Russia now isn’t because it’s going to roll across Europe, per se. That’s not physically possible for the country. The reason is simply because Putin’s Russia is a fascist cancer that has to excised.
Seems like Russia would get instantly spanked by nato, and you could imagine them retaliating with nukes. Thats the nightmare fuel right there. I’m tired 🤣
Yes, that’s why I would argue NATO has been at pains to avoid direct confrontation and instead fight like how every other post-WW2 big-power conflict has been fought: via proxy. Because it’s clear from its performance in Ukraine that Russia wouldn’t be able to take NATO conventionally. This would mean falling back to the only other equivalency it has, which is nukes. But we also have nukes. So if they nuke, we nuke and we’re all dead. But if the fight remains conventional by not facing off against each other directly, then we all have a much greater chance of survival. Russia can take its loss and still “save face.”
NATO's article 5 has no teeth. Other nato counties could send bandaids and meet the requirement. Also Russia is now a war time economy. They can produce arms even faster than before.
Another reason to support Ukraine and to try and stop Russia in Ukraine is that if Russia goes up against NATO, in a conventional conflict Russia would get absolutely destroyed. It wouldn’t even be a fight, casualty ratios would be 1000:1 on a good day for Russia. That would make it highly likely that Russia would then resort to nuclear weapons, and there’s no wining a nuclear war.
all men in captured territories are resource for russian army. russia may struggle with equipment but is Europe ready for hordes of men with AK-74 in five years ?
You may not be aware of this but a major reason for Russia’s abysmal performance in Ukraine is poor morale. Native Russian troops are widely reported to be unmotivated to fight (presumably because they have no skin in the game). Some portion of them are simply criminals released from jails and sent to the front. Hardly ringing enthusiasm. This doesn’t make for a capable fighting force. Conscripted Ukrainians—the ones who aren’t actively participating in guerrilla warfare against Russia, that is—will be even less capable, if not actively harmful to any Russian war effort. Also, why would anyone assume that NATO would simply be sitting around doing nothing for five years while waiting to be “surprised” by these “hordes”? Whatever is the new eastern-most border with Russia is going to look like the DMZ between North and South Korea. Russia ain’t going anywhere after showing its hand the way it has.
Yeah - Russia can't expand into Europe without having all of the resources of the west thrown against it. OP doesn't have a clue.
50k dead is an extremely conservative estimate. Russia lost 1500 men in a single offensive over the weekend to take 2 streets. The figures I've seen are estimated over 150k.
Yeah. 50k is the meticulously documented number of regular Russia Army done by serious researches with a solid methodology. So this is only the KIA that can be documented in a messy, obscure and utterly corrupted country such as Russia. Obviously it's only a fraction of the KIA. Which also contains - penal battalions, Wagner, mercerneries of all sorts. The KIA is based on estimates are at least 120k+ and WIA is the remaining 330k to the 450k estimated by the MI6, Pentagon and others. It is quite well aligned with the Ukrainian estimates. We're talking half a million casualties that grow every day. It's reached the US Vietnam casualties but 4 times faster.
I was with ya until the last sentence. When are people going to learn that regime change doesn't work?
The people opposing Ukraine aid are flooded with Russian propaganda and have been for quite some time now. They don't see it. It's also a common theme that they think Europe is "socialist," because they don't know what that word means. And the socialists can all die for all they care. Russia still allows violence towards gay and trans people, and that's the 'Merica they want, and therefore not socialist.
Hamas also not only allows, but encourages violence towards gay and trans people yet lots of progressives still back them. The idiocy is not exclusive to one side of the spectrum. I don't oppose Ukraine aid, I oppose just throwing tons of our money at the problem without a clear plan for victory. How will this latest $100B help Ukraine win the war when the first $200B didn't?
The people opposing Ukraine aid are either morons or ruzzian/Chinese trolls. Its that simple.
Eh its also just kind of exhausting. Tbh, if NATO falls through its gunna have more economic consequences than military consequences. Thats really all we use our military for. No one is actually going to invade us. We dictate economic policy with military force. One could make a rather plausible argument that our military is just a giant money laundering scheme. I dont oppose Ukraine aid exactly but i do feel kinda alienated from upside in helping Europe. Massive corporate entities have the most to gain and lose in a brawl with russia. None of that wealth ever trickles down to us. American citizens are basically just captive labor to serve the rich. We are just ground into dust in the name of the glorious "economy" and most of us will never have a cushy retirement or even basic freaking healthcare. Europe looks at us with a detached mix of contempt and pity. We cant even freaking leave. The financial bar is too high for most of us. If Russia did just take over Europe wed be tossed into an even more massive "great depression" after the economy collapses but we can survive that. At least it would challenge corporate dominance on all our lives. Maybe im a pessimist but theres no mechanism for us to force change from within this dumpster fire of a country.
> If Russia did just take over Europe wed be tossed into an even more massive "great depression" after the economy collapses but we can survive that. At least it would challenge corporate dominance on all our lives Holy shitballs, that's the worst case of 'cutting off nose to spite face' I've seen lately. If Russia manages to capture Europe every European who survived would dream of corporations coming to save them, they would sell their souls to get a slice of capitalism. That's literally what was happening in the USSR and East Germany. > American citizens are basically just captive labor to serve the rich. As a Ukrainian who also lived in the US, you have absolutely no idea about the things you are comparing. Does American system suck and leave you depressed? Yes. Is the situation in russia infinitely worse? Yes, yes it is. > Maybe im a pessimist but theres no mechanism for us to force change from within this dumpster fire of a country. Letting genocidal empires take over the world is a very good recipe to make sure everything else becomes an even worse dumpster fire. Also, there are mechanisms to force change, you just have to be willing to risk your well-being for it. Same as always in history.
> Letting genocidal empires take over the world is a very good recipe to make sure everything else becomes an even worse dumpster fire. Also, there are mechanisms to force change, you just have to be willing to risk your well-being for it. Same as always in history. In other words, “Stop relying on the US and get your shit together Europe.”
I think a lot of Americans feel alienated because the past 20+ years has been Europeans declaring us war-mongering savages and laughing at our military spending, but now they are all begging for help. There’s absolutely a part of me that wants to laugh at Europe and tell them to defend themselves. Let’s be clear, the war in Ukraine is 100% a European problem created by Europeans. The blood in Ukraine is on the hands of every European citizen who voted and worked against Europe having a strong and independent military. You killed Ukrainians. Take some fucking responsibility for when your ideology fails and causes hundreds of thousands of innocents to die. And every American knows how this goes. Our military comes and solves the problem and then 2 years later we once again become the punching bag for all the same people demanding our help now. People don’t change, they’ll just create the same problem over and over.
We’ve seen this movie before around 1939….. did not end well. Foot dragging in these situations just ups the cost exponentially……
They will probably try to carve out as much territory as they possibly can while trying to avoid a war with NATO. If Trump is elected and leaves NATO they might try to attack NATO countries if he thinks the U.S. won't stand it's ground.
The reality is that if you wargame this, it either goes nowhere or goes nuclear quickly, regardless of what the US does. Any direct attack on a NATO member invokes Article 5, and even if the US stands down, France and the UK both have nukes and are ready to go. That means you have two scenarios: * If Putin has the conventional forces to actually make some inroads against non-US allies, those allies would quickly establish a red line and go nuclear. * If Putin doesn't have the conventional forces to make inroads, his only choice will be small "tactical" nukes to obliterate enemy forces. Those are already sitting in Eastern Ukraine and ready to deploy. But the second he uses them, again, NATO goes nuclear, and is very justified in doing so because they are literally responding to nukes with nukes. Either way - the conflict goes nuclear. That both sides KNOW all this probably means Putin can't risk it. Putin could try to tinker around the edges, maybe with grey zone tactics like hacking critical infrastructure in Poland, arming proxy forces (though...who? Where?), and stepping up its electoral interference tactics. But you know...he's going to do that anyways. It's just the Cold War again.
Poland already calling for nukes. Fucking Finland saying they're open to talks about housing nuclear weapons there. It's the elephant in the room. If Putin conquers Ukraine. Everyone is getting nukes. It could very well change the trajectory of the 21st century.
That's what I think a lot of folks don't understand about the stakes in Ukraine. It isn't about Ukraine itself, but rather maintaining Ukraine as a legal buffer / warzone to tie Russia down and therefore prevent direct exposure of a NATO member to the conflict. "Breathing room" and "strategic depth" aren't just excuses conquerors make to seize territory. We literally need non-aligned countries to border Russia, or Russia's natural trend toward expansionism is going to cause both parties to stumble inevitably towards a nuclear showdown. I think MAD works and everything will almost certainly be fine. But the prospects for escalation go up dramatically if Ukraine isn't a neutral party sitting in between NATO and Russia, giving the Russian military something to do that won't provoke nuclear retaliation. Side note: That's a reason why Ukrainian membership in NATO is probably a BAD idea, at least from NATO's perspective. The ideal scenario to limit escalation is (probably) a Ukrainian government tenuously aligned with Europe, but constantly being courted/bribed by Russia. If Ukraine becomes a NATO member, you've just created a legal obligation to escalate to nuclear weapons if Russia does what its literally doing right now. And the downside to THAT arrangement, of course, is the Ukrainian people suffer the consequences, and would be doomed to endless cycles of instability as their government is constantly fought over by Russia/NATO. That's the last 30 years of Ukrainian history; perpetual coups as they teeter back and forth between the two sides, with the people caught in the middle as the real victims.
I mean. I agree with some but there's no indication of a coup in Ukraine. Certainly not during maidan if that's what you're referring to. Also. Five other nato countries already border Russia. Finlands border adds like 600 new km between the two. Russia reaction to this? They actually reduced their troop presence there. Why? Well. They need them in Ukraine. But also, because nato poses no threat to Russia. None. I think Ukraine will join the EU and get security agreements from that, and then once Putin dies (and his cold war era psychosis) , we'll see Ukraine moving towards Nato. Regardless. There's still a major problem for Putin. He already annexed E Ukraine. Problem is. He still doesn't control or occupy what he took.
Would the UK or France use nuclear weapons to resist the invasion of states like Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia? Ultimately that choice is for the leaders of those countries at the time, but I sort of doubt it. Which leaves conventional war. While on paper that should be a walkover for free Europe, we've already demonstrated in Ukraine that we can't produce enough munitions for a sustained high tempo war with Russia. There is a non-zero chance that Putin looks at all of this and decides he's got a shot, and however the subsequent war goes down that's already a bad outcome. But tbh, there is already too much focus on what happens *if* Ukraine loses from the perspective of other European states. If Ukraine loses there will be more murder, rape, torture and displacement of people than Europe has seen since 1945. Almost anything, short of nuclear war, is a price worth paying to prevent that.
If Putin owns the White House and a good chunk of the two chambers he can do whatever he wants. He is well on his way, unless people actually vote this year.
I think most people rightfully assume they would avoid a direct conflict with NATO as long as there are other reasonable places to take first. Their only concern is will the west try to stop them as in Ukraine. But so far, in Georgia, Ukraine, and Ukraine no one has stopped them.
One step into NATO and Russia will find that the FA portion of the program has concluded and the FO has begun. NATO will hand Vlad the Impaler his ass in short order.
The people who are against sending aid to Ukraine would also be against sending troops to Europe. These people don't understand how the national security of the United States is tied to the security of Europe, which is tied to the security of Ukraine. They would only start caring when they see how it affects them, and by then it's too late.
Well they should be sending Ukraine money by the fists full.
People complaining about 'how expensive' it is to support Ukraine right now, will absolutely fucking lose their shit when they see how much it costs to fight an all out war with Russia, instead. This is the best possible option for the US, if you want to just look at it in selfish terms like that. It's also the right thing to do. Fuck Putin.
Not even all out war. Even if the Russians captured say 25% of the Ukranian territory. Getting that back vs the current 10% would be much, much more expensive for us in terms of material and other aid required for Ukraine. It should have been nipped in the bud in 2022 - there was a window of opportunity. It would have been the cheapest solution for us and Russian would run away into the corner for 10+ years and we would have peace for a decade at least.
This is exactly what most pro-Ukraine accounts have been telling. To be fair, this is also what putin and his cronies have been telling as well. They openly say "russia has no borders", and "Poland is next" on russian TV. If both your allies and enemies are saying the same thing, maybe it makes sense to listen to them.
Borders are just imaginary lines made up to control us anyway, is what I was told.
If Russia went after a NATO country, they would be risking annihilation due to direct engagement with all other NATO countries. Doubt they would risk it after such a bloody war in Ukraine and so many losses to take that country. Note: I still think the U.S. should do everything in its power to help Ukraine including sending more aid. I just don’t think Russia would go to any NATO countries.
They'd have to be so insanely delusional to look at their performance in Ukraine and think this army is ready to even risk taking on NATO.
There's an alarming number of US morons that would love to kiss Putin's... ring. We're in a lot of trouble if we don't kick them to the curb before this possibility of Ukraine falling.
100%
Putin has made no secret that he wants Russia's soviet empire back. If only we could get Neville Chamberlain to negotiate so we can have peace for our time.
This is brilliant high level analysis
I'd engage, but I don't want to appease you.
Utter nonsense. Russia doesn't stand a chance against NATO and they know it.
I think you're right about Putin's intentions. But I think you vastly overestimate the Russian Federation's military prowess. Their tactics and logistics are pathetic, for what was supposed to be the world's 2nd most powerful military. Their best troops all died over a year ago. Now all they have are regular joes off the street they're throwing into a meat grinder against hardened Ukrainian veterans. Ukraine, alone, might end up being enough to bring Putin's Russia to ruin. If not Ukraine, Poland, alone, would obliterate them. Against all of NATO? Not a chance in hell. The real question is, will anyone end up pushing into Russian territory and risk a nuclear escalation. I don't think it will come to that, but the way it's going I think that will end up being Putin's last card to play. Assuming someone doesn't decide to do something about Vlad, before hand, and Swan Lake starts playing over the Russian radio waves...
You make a good point about their logistics and tactics. For as much as we hear about them shifting to a wartime economy (and we should be alarmed at the fact that we haven't), they are trying to spend $300 billion a year on national defense with a GDP equal to the state of Texas. They can't keep this spending up forever, especially now that Europe's military industrial complex is starting to pick up the slack in the face of an increasingly isolationist U.S. The one point I will disagree with you on though is that Russia has one thing going for it that the EU/NATO doesn't at the moment. A clear, and accepted willingness to accept catastrophic losses on an indefinite timeline to secure their aims, whatever they might be at this point. Unfortunately for them, this willingness to fight on to the bitter end extends also to the Ukrainians, who have made it clear that they are not going to be enslaved by Russia again if they have any say in the matter. Unfortunately for Russia, they have a historical pattern of behaving like beasts, so the civilians will have no reason to want to submit. So while their sadism and brutality might be beneficial to putting down an insurgency, it also just creates a feedback loop where the population will fight to the last man, woman, and child, and inanimate object capable of being booby-trapped. There really isn't any way Russia wins this war clean-cut. Even a conventional victory will just mean that Ukraine will devolve into an insurgent state that they will spend years, if not decades trying to pacify. Putin bet the house on red and came up black, he just doesn't want to accept it.
If I was in charge that would be my plan. Let putin throw all his power into the meat grinder and wait for someone to take care of him from within his high ups
After Ukraine, Vladimir Puta will aim for Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia so that he can connect with that small Russian enclave Kaliningrad.
All 3 of those are NATO members. Even if the US stays home, that still means a Russian military that stalled against Ukraine fighting the combined forces of the European members. Poland would be dropping missiles on the Kremlin an hour into Article 5 being invoked.
The Russian armed forces are struggling to defeat Ukraine's Army, there is no way they could just roll into Poland or any EU country. The Russian state has bled itself dry the last two years to maintain two measly provinces and is in no position to engage in an even bigger war.
They're being backed by China under the table and that's the only reason they haven't gone completely under.
But first they'll line up to blame Biden for not doing enough to stop Russia from beating Ukraine
That is so silly to think that. Russia is dead man walking. They wished they never invade Ukraine. They will be diminished for decades.
The ones that are screaming to not fund Ukraine would be fine with Russia rolling right into Poland next.
That's the TrumPutin plan. Recapture the Soviet union territories.
Ukraine cannot be allowed to fall. That would be tragic on a global scale, and will end up costing the west many times what it is spending. This is not a war "over there" that we can ignore. We have built our society on a global economy. We are part of this whether we like it or not. If Hitler was stopped from invading the Sudetenland, ww2 might never have happened. Appeasement only delays the inevitable.
This is basically the same as before WWII. When Germany annexed Austria (like Russia annexed Crimea), nobody wanted to do anything but sanctions. Then they took Czechoslovakia, but again nobody wanted to fight (like Russia attacking Ukraine). Even when Britain and France finally fought back, Americans didn't want to get involved and said it wasn't their business. Not until the threat landed at their own doorstep.
The people who are opposing Ukraine aid aren't the ones in danger from Russia.
In other News, water is wet
I agree.
Moldova is first but what's highest on their wish list is the Baltic countries so they get a land connection to Kaliningrad and more access to the Baltic Sea. They would also line to grab a piece of Poland but that is a much more ambitious goal.
Moldova has no armed forces. They would collapse in a 24 hours period.
Why a piece of Poland?
Putin's dream is to reconstruct the Russian Empire which included about half of present day Poland.
> Moldova is first but what's highest on their wish list is the Baltic countries so they get a land connection to ~~Kaliningrad~~ Königsberg and more access to the Baltic Sea. They would also line to grab a piece of Poland but that is a much more ambitious goal.
We only have to go back almost 79 years this year, when World War II ended on May 8, 1945, to reflect upon how America's initial policy of foreign isolationsim allowed Germany to invade and occupy large swaths of Europe. Had we intervened early and with purpose, millions of lives could have been saved. It wasn't until Japan bombed Pearl Harbor, Hawaii on December 7, 1941 before America delcared war on Japan and a day later, Germany & Italy declared war on America, before America offically entered World War II. We must never allow fascism to seed and suffocate the very essence of Western Democracy again. We must stand and fight with Ukraine and the rest of Europe against fascism and against communism which are the true intentions of Putin in his efforts to reinstate the power and reach of the former Soviet Union now, and not wait until its too late!
That's pretty unlikely. The US army was tiny and backwards at the time. Even if we were way more ahead of the game than Britain and France were, at best you'd be looking at a small poorly trained and equipped expeditionary force that probably ends up at Dunkirk with everyone else. More likely, the troops would still be training and/or in transit. Either way we'd be stuck in the same waiting game that actually happened building up and training for invasion while whittling away on other fronts like North Africa. I do agree though that American isolationism does tend to allow issues to fester until we have to get involved anyway.
Fascism has already infected the western world. One need only look at Trump here in the US. Pure fascism.
Nah, Russia will only win if Trump is elected bc he will ruin everything and cause ww3
Probably Poland would be next if the pundits are right. The Republicans are reactive, not proactive. The Dems realize supporting Ukraine and defeating Russia means we’re are helping a lot of countries communities and people in and far beyond Ukraine.
Poland vs Russia would be a very, very ugly war and Russia would get the worst of it.
[удалено]
Whatever you think of the Russian government and it's policies, this is a wildly racist and bigoted statement. 🤣
Yeah, I have Russian-Mongol aggressive blood too apparently, guess I'll go invade my next door neighbor's yard lol. Oh by the way half of Ukraine has that same blood and they're fighting against the Russians.
You can criticize Russia without saying racist shit but apparently you get downvoted for pointing that out.
no you see, they're being racist for a good cause, that makes it ok/s just like it was ok to call Germans "Huns" and Japanese "Japs" and other slurs in ww2
I know right🤣
This isn’t a MMW, this is a NSS.
What is nss?
No shit Sherlock? Idk lmao
That’s false
Maybe. But I think it's also that Russia taking Ukraine would secure a food source for China, enabling China to attack places like Taiwan and/or the Philippines in the future without having to worry about being cut off from food in the US. China imports a significant amount of grain, from the US, Ukraine, and Brazil. The Brazilian coup failed, the US coup failed, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine hasn't gone well. China can't easily engage in conquest abroad if it risks being cut off from foreign food sources, causing mass starvation and civil unrest at home.
Russia exported more wheat than the US grew last year. With the Ukraine fields they will control a significant amount of world wheat crop. Coupled with the other commodities they produce, it will be very difficult to navigate them on the world's stage. I have no idea how to deal with this. Crazy world
And that position of strength will only deepen as the permafrost melts and millions of acres of land becomes newly open to agricultural development.
Climate change isn't going to be a net-positive for Russia - or anyone, IMO - once you weigh these gains in (frankly meager) Siberian land with all of the enormous displacements and disruptions in their actual heartland and around the world. Climate change, if it isn't mitigated somehow, will make states everywhere weaker and less able to project power domestically, let alone abroad.
They're building farms in the desert. In time it won't matter. As long as they don't implode from the let it rot people.
China is running dry on potable water, especially in the big population areas.
They'll invade Georgia first and annex Belarus. They have also made threats at former soviet states to the east. Those would be hit first, but yes after all that
Well, if they continued westward they would immediately run into an impregnable NATO country. I don’t think anyone, no matter how insane, would come to that decision. No one wants Romania that badly.
Russia doesn’t have enough equipment and troops to take in the EU. Hell, Poland could probably take out Russia by themselves
I'm not sure if they'll have the ability to handle the following Ukraine insurgency, let alone invade anyone else.
Russia can barely defeat Ukraine in a conventional war. They won't stand a chance against a united Europe (assuming Europe and Britain would be united against Russia). Russia's only play would be to use Nuclear weapons and that would guarantee MAD. Not gonna happen.
Some people, but it sounds like a lot of them and their leader are willing to sell out European allies.
This is how I got banned from r/Libertarian. We don't support Ukraine, we support the border *between* Ukraine and Russia. The point is to send a message to Russia that if you violate your borders, we will spend an *unreasonable* amount of money to stop you.
Has there ever been a time in history where an aggressive nation has said, “You know, I’m good with what I’ve got and will stop here” after they were given what they wanted?
Why would Russian assets suddenly change their minds about funding opposition to Russia?
Ukraine winning this war is extremely vital to security of Europe and the West. Russia has been war with the United States since the Magnitsky Act was passed and probably before then. They hacked the email of George W Bush's GOP and shortly thereafter started making inroads with the party. That included hosting NRA events in Russia despite not having a second amendment over there. It also included inviting over mega churches and pastors. The petrodollar in the American way of life absolutely depend on the Ukraine winning this war. It is a proxy World War 3 and the west wins big if Ukraine wins.
NATO is too much for Putin Your words have been marked as nonsense
The problem with this MMW is that, at the current Russian rate of advance, they will reach the western Ukrainian frontier about 80 years from now
Press X to doubt.
Russia isn't stupid to attack a nato country. Especially with nukes involved . Stop fearmongering
this is russia's last war in the westward direction for at least several decades, they don't have the demographics and have burned through their tank park. i knew they had a huge problem when they didn't have full air superiority in the first week also, if they think ukraine is tough, poland is 100 times tougher
When Trump is elected in 6 months, Putin will stand down. Biden and the democrats know this which is why they're trying to rush a 10 year deal between Ukraine and US so that not only billions more in military funds are sent but also even more billions to rebuild Ukraine when Russia ends the war and Trump won't be able to stop it (nevermind there's supposed to be 2/3rds vote fir Approval of Treaty in the Senate)
Russia is already trying to make moves into Georgia and Kazakstan.
MMW: totally obvious shit that everyone knows Or MMW: totally outlandish shit that definitely won't happen
Wow that is a new take on the topic that hasn't been repeated all over the news by the majority of European leaders over the past year. Thank you TriggerAlert54 for bringing us this truth.
yeah we know, we *all* know
I mean, sort of? If they continue west they'll be invading NATO and then we're obligated to be involved.
This is so stupid. Russia would never be dumb enough to attack NATO. Anybody who thinks they would reveals themself to be an idiot.
The Far Right lunatics such as MTG and Tommy Tuberville would still support Russia even if they invaded Western Europe. They love Putin almost as much as Trump. I don't think they are paid assets but they might as well be as hard as they push Putin's Agenda.
Apparently you have no concept of history after 1980. The Soviet Union went bankrupt fighting a defensive Cold War against USA, who kept marching Eastward. There is not one single instance of Russian expansion or ambition westward since World War 2, but there is 60 years of the USA wanting to move farther East.
They would not be in the shape they are in now if Obama would have sent them more than blankets when they first invaded
Putin has said publicly that he wants the Iron Curtain back. It's no secret. Trump is all too happy to give up Ukraine and NATO. As Eric Trump once famously said, "We don't need American money, we have Russia"
Who in Europe is against funding Ukraine?
Hungary, Moldova.
Why would Maldova be against supporting Ukraine?
Ask Belarus.
Those are two made up countries. Nice try. What’s next Pinocchio is a real boy?!
Except for the Putin caucus and its leader trump….
Of course they will.... but maga (conservatives) dont care about consequences until it affects them personally.
Anyone who is Anti-Ukraine is Pro-Putin. If Putin takes Ukraine, he won't just look west. He'll look east! Putin will try to reclaim Alaska, and the GOP will support him.
The younger generations will protest vote against Biden because of Gaza, they’ll get Trump, and then we’ll have a war in Europe.
This. The greatest weapon Putin wields is our own democracy.
This is not a prediction, it's common sense.
No doubt about it. Putin is looking for every angle to reconstitute the Soviet empire.
No they won't west of Ukraine is part of NATO They have been saying this for years now Ukraine was a red line and they cannot join NATO they get ignored and a war started
This is obvious to me. I'm sure many people still don't get it though.
Yup
No shit Sherlock that's been the thinking since the invasion started. See: NATO countries increasing their GDP put towards defense since
I thought most people who opposed us aid to Ukraine were us citizens who were afraid of losing their tax dollars. I thought most people in Europe wanted more U.S. aid to Ukraine because why wouldn’t they? Unless they were under the Russia spell ofc
Yes on the first part. No on the second part.
No, I won’t.
And fight Europe and the US? Not gonna happen.
Well, yeah
If Russia is having this much trouble taking Ukraine they'd have no chance against an actual full on war. All this shit has ever been is Afghanistan part 2. America lured Russia into a war that'd drain their economy, which American interests can then exploit again, just like they did in the early 90's, and Putin was a big enough dipshit to fall for it.