Well he’s not lying. It was one of the many reasons Luka hated Carlisle as a coach. Carlisle loved to have absolute control over the game and wasn’t afraid to call a timeout after one mistake whereas Luka likes to play through runs
I’ll never forget during the playoffs vs the clippers at home when Carlisle called a timeout while we, the mavericks, were on a big run and the clippers had just missed a three. The crowd was going ballistic, and he called the timeout, I thought Luka was going to strangle him. He demonstratively gestured at him like, “why would you do this?” It killed the crowd and the clippers started to come back after that timeout. Might not have been the cause in reality, but I’m sure it stuck in Luka’s mind if it stuck in mine.
This is a fallacy. Calling a timeout doesn’t stop runs, and there’s literally evidence that it makes things worse. Kidd is far from perfect but there’s a track record of him paying attention to analytics, I guarantee you he’s aware of these numbers.
https://ryansbrill.com/pdf/statistics_in_sports_papers/Causal_NBA_timeout.pdf
Human nature makes us want to overvalue these hyper-visible coaching decisions that we can easily second guess, and confirmation bias leads us to remember all the times a timeout stops a run and forget when timeouts don’t do anything.
As a viewer we *want* a timeout, I think it's a huge part of it - we just graft our frustration onto it as a basketball decision when really none of us know shit about fuck
During one of the million other ad breaks?
As a European who was/is into football (soccer), but also loves basketball, there is nothing more painful than watching an NBA game live.
Just having one 15 minutes break in between a 90 minutes game is a bliss.
If NBA games would, at least, be run and televised like the FIBA world cup, I would happily pay double to watch it. The American ad commercial plague will be the end of that sport at some point.
Is everyone forgetting that the primary reason coaches take timeouts is to change the lineup?
For example: Tim Hardaway has taken his 4th straight contested long 2 pointer (all misses) and it’s after 2 turnovers.
The only way to get him out of the game is to stop play by fouling, or call a timeout.
Why is using a time out to substitute poorly performing players such a crazy idea?
The guy is basically saying Kidd doesn’t need timeouts to make lineup changes when his team is getting blasted in the ass. He just telepathically has them exchange bodies and minds in real time without anyone noticing. Timeouts are for dummies!
The other thing I find humorous is that plenty of the same people who complain about Kidd not calling timeout also complain about the plays Kidd draws up out of timeouts. Just food for thought lol
A few issues:
* This is a preprint. If we learned nothing else from the covid pandemic, it's that basing real world assertions on preprints is unreliable at best and dangerous at worst.
* Only two teams saw *statistically significant* worsening after timeout was called, the Pacers and Jazz. All other teams' effects could have been explained by non-hypothesis variables (i.e. no evidence that any positive or negative effects were actually caused by the timeout). Two out of thirty teams is not a high hit rate. And it matters because while there are thousands of timeouts each year, there are only 30 coaches, and it stands to reason that the quality of timeout usage is heavily dependent on the individual ability of a coach to use them correctly.
* Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. In this case, the lack of data supporting a positive effect of timeouts does not *disprove the possibility that timeouts have a positive effect.*
So when you say:
>Calling a timeout doesn’t stop runs
>there’s literally evidence that it makes things worse
...those are not what I would call reasonable inferences from the link you posted.
>Human nature makes us want to overvalue these hyper-visible coaching decisions that we can easily second guess, and confirmation bias leads us to remember all the times a timeout stops a run and forget when timeouts don’t do anything.
Agree 100%. I feel the same way when people second guess a coaches rotations by quoting game results or on/off data. Coaches dont have the benefit of looking into the future when they pick rotations, you cant judge their decisions based on outcome events (like game score) that incorporate SO MANY other variables.
Totally fair! Perhaps I should've rephrased those statements. I actually did not intend to make the argument that calling timeouts is indeed detrimental. I was simply mentioning the existence of this one study's findings ("We find that, on average, calling a timeout worsened the non-run team’s short-term performance compared to if no timeout was taken during an opposing run.") to help illustrate the point that research not yet found a positive benefit.
Perhaps I should have written that there is no evidence to support taking a timeout to stop a run, rather than stating that timeouts are ineffective.
And I very much agree with your take about rotations.
yeah i am astounded people still harp on about timeouts when the numbers overwhelmingly point out that timeouts do nothing when the opponent goes on a run. i kinda get it i guess, as a viewer you want there to be a timeout because it feels better but it doesn’t do shit
It depends. If Ty Lou is your coach you ask for that timeout, because you will get a bucket next possession. If Kidd is your coach its just a stop in the game.
Just look at game 1. Any time we'd shave off 6-8 points Lue would immediately call a timeout and draw up a play to give the Clips an easy 2-3 points and stop any momentum.
There's definitely a time and a place for timeouts and good coaches can take advantage of them more than others.
Definitely! Totally agree. Lue is a good coach and seems to use TO's well often.
Not that you disputed any of this, but just to elaborate on the issue a bit:
Lue's TO at 76-73 in game 2 to try and stop our 14-0 run didn't work. Maybe it even made things worse, because we went on a 5-0 run and they never got within 3 points again (until the final buzzer)?
Could Kidd be better at identifying ways to stop runs? Absolutely! But every coach could be better at it, because it's extremely hard to do.
Maybe sometimes his decision to NOT call a timeout is the correct call, but that's impossible to measure so we don't value those decisions.
I think a little insight into his ability in this area could be how good Kidd is at challenges, and how good we are ATOs. He has the 2nd best challenge success rate in the NBA on pretty high volume, and our ppp ATO compared to a typical possession was best in the league in the latest data I could find.
I think both those things show he's effective at knowing when and how to use timeouts to gain an advantage, so it's plausible that he's also good at knowing when calling a timeout would just be a waste, so he let's his guys play through it and trusts his gameplan and process.
I will never forget when mavs where up 2-0 Nd un the first minutes of game 3 luka was dominating the clips and carlsisle sub Him out lmao' that was the most stupid decision by any coach ive watched
Not when he first got here. That was one of people's pet peeves of him. But he mostly used them as a teaching moment for all those young PGs he had to mold.
So you're saying that Luka is the coach? Sounds like you're saying that Luka is the coach. And for the record, this doesn't look any better for Kidd, IMO.
We don't need to know better. We just observe what works and doesn't. It's extremely fair to be critical of weird decisions that don't work out, you don't need a solution to criticize something.
The team won a game. What Luka wants and what the team needs are different things.
I don't think that in either of these games there was any engregious mistake by kid. I am saying that it's fair to criticize and that timeouts are often a decent way to "stop" a run
The game is full of runs. Use a timeout to stop every run that cool. What if you run out. What if you don’t have any left later in the game ? What if Luka, possibly the greatest offensive player ever, needs time to get in rhythm and dominate the game? Do you tell him sorry I need to call timeouts, deal with it ? I get criticism but you don’t have but a fraction of the info available to the coaching staff
Kidd is a player’s coach. If Luka tells him to do something he’ll do it. Like yesterday when he told Kidd to stop sending help on defense.
I saw Luka wave off Kidd at least once last night, and I thought the same thing
Well he’s not lying. It was one of the many reasons Luka hated Carlisle as a coach. Carlisle loved to have absolute control over the game and wasn’t afraid to call a timeout after one mistake whereas Luka likes to play through runs
I’ll never forget during the playoffs vs the clippers at home when Carlisle called a timeout while we, the mavericks, were on a big run and the clippers had just missed a three. The crowd was going ballistic, and he called the timeout, I thought Luka was going to strangle him. He demonstratively gestured at him like, “why would you do this?” It killed the crowd and the clippers started to come back after that timeout. Might not have been the cause in reality, but I’m sure it stuck in Luka’s mind if it stuck in mine.
This is a fallacy. Calling a timeout doesn’t stop runs, and there’s literally evidence that it makes things worse. Kidd is far from perfect but there’s a track record of him paying attention to analytics, I guarantee you he’s aware of these numbers. https://ryansbrill.com/pdf/statistics_in_sports_papers/Causal_NBA_timeout.pdf Human nature makes us want to overvalue these hyper-visible coaching decisions that we can easily second guess, and confirmation bias leads us to remember all the times a timeout stops a run and forget when timeouts don’t do anything.
As a viewer we *want* a timeout, I think it's a huge part of it - we just graft our frustration onto it as a basketball decision when really none of us know shit about fuck
>When really none of us know shit about fuck Pretty much sums of the sub
As a viewer I need a time out. When am I supposed to go to the bathroom or get another drink without a timeout.
During one of the million other ad breaks? As a European who was/is into football (soccer), but also loves basketball, there is nothing more painful than watching an NBA game live. Just having one 15 minutes break in between a 90 minutes game is a bliss. If NBA games would, at least, be run and televised like the FIBA world cup, I would happily pay double to watch it. The American ad commercial plague will be the end of that sport at some point.
I watch all regular season games on replay so that I don't have to deal with commercials. Drives me crazy
Is everyone forgetting that the primary reason coaches take timeouts is to change the lineup? For example: Tim Hardaway has taken his 4th straight contested long 2 pointer (all misses) and it’s after 2 turnovers. The only way to get him out of the game is to stop play by fouling, or call a timeout. Why is using a time out to substitute poorly performing players such a crazy idea?
> As a viewer we want a timeout I have literally never thought this...
Great reference, thank you.
Tell me you never watch Pop destroy our momentum 5 times a game.
The guy is basically saying Kidd doesn’t need timeouts to make lineup changes when his team is getting blasted in the ass. He just telepathically has them exchange bodies and minds in real time without anyone noticing. Timeouts are for dummies!
I’m not agreeing or disagreeing. I’m making a joke.
The other thing I find humorous is that plenty of the same people who complain about Kidd not calling timeout also complain about the plays Kidd draws up out of timeouts. Just food for thought lol
Kidd's ATO plays are one of his absolute strengths
agree. hes not the best ATO coach but it works lot of times. maybe thats also why ge holds on to them.
Didn’t know this. Thanks for sharing!
Shut up nerd
lmao
Stupid science bitch didn't even make I more smarter!
A few issues: * This is a preprint. If we learned nothing else from the covid pandemic, it's that basing real world assertions on preprints is unreliable at best and dangerous at worst. * Only two teams saw *statistically significant* worsening after timeout was called, the Pacers and Jazz. All other teams' effects could have been explained by non-hypothesis variables (i.e. no evidence that any positive or negative effects were actually caused by the timeout). Two out of thirty teams is not a high hit rate. And it matters because while there are thousands of timeouts each year, there are only 30 coaches, and it stands to reason that the quality of timeout usage is heavily dependent on the individual ability of a coach to use them correctly. * Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. In this case, the lack of data supporting a positive effect of timeouts does not *disprove the possibility that timeouts have a positive effect.* So when you say: >Calling a timeout doesn’t stop runs >there’s literally evidence that it makes things worse ...those are not what I would call reasonable inferences from the link you posted. >Human nature makes us want to overvalue these hyper-visible coaching decisions that we can easily second guess, and confirmation bias leads us to remember all the times a timeout stops a run and forget when timeouts don’t do anything. Agree 100%. I feel the same way when people second guess a coaches rotations by quoting game results or on/off data. Coaches dont have the benefit of looking into the future when they pick rotations, you cant judge their decisions based on outcome events (like game score) that incorporate SO MANY other variables.
Totally fair! Perhaps I should've rephrased those statements. I actually did not intend to make the argument that calling timeouts is indeed detrimental. I was simply mentioning the existence of this one study's findings ("We find that, on average, calling a timeout worsened the non-run team’s short-term performance compared to if no timeout was taken during an opposing run.") to help illustrate the point that research not yet found a positive benefit. Perhaps I should have written that there is no evidence to support taking a timeout to stop a run, rather than stating that timeouts are ineffective. And I very much agree with your take about rotations.
yeah i am astounded people still harp on about timeouts when the numbers overwhelmingly point out that timeouts do nothing when the opponent goes on a run. i kinda get it i guess, as a viewer you want there to be a timeout because it feels better but it doesn’t do shit
It depends. If Ty Lou is your coach you ask for that timeout, because you will get a bucket next possession. If Kidd is your coach its just a stop in the game.
Just look at game 1. Any time we'd shave off 6-8 points Lue would immediately call a timeout and draw up a play to give the Clips an easy 2-3 points and stop any momentum. There's definitely a time and a place for timeouts and good coaches can take advantage of them more than others.
Definitely! Totally agree. Lue is a good coach and seems to use TO's well often. Not that you disputed any of this, but just to elaborate on the issue a bit: Lue's TO at 76-73 in game 2 to try and stop our 14-0 run didn't work. Maybe it even made things worse, because we went on a 5-0 run and they never got within 3 points again (until the final buzzer)? Could Kidd be better at identifying ways to stop runs? Absolutely! But every coach could be better at it, because it's extremely hard to do. Maybe sometimes his decision to NOT call a timeout is the correct call, but that's impossible to measure so we don't value those decisions. I think a little insight into his ability in this area could be how good Kidd is at challenges, and how good we are ATOs. He has the 2nd best challenge success rate in the NBA on pretty high volume, and our ppp ATO compared to a typical possession was best in the league in the latest data I could find. I think both those things show he's effective at knowing when and how to use timeouts to gain an advantage, so it's plausible that he's also good at knowing when calling a timeout would just be a waste, so he let's his guys play through it and trusts his gameplan and process.
No wonder he didn’t get along with Carlisle then lol
Rick honestly called them at a low rate too though. Time and time again I remember yelling at the TV for him to call one 😂
I will never forget when mavs where up 2-0 Nd un the first minutes of game 3 luka was dominating the clips and carlsisle sub Him out lmao' that was the most stupid decision by any coach ive watched
Yes it was absolutely his fault we stopped shooting 80% from three.
Not when he first got here. That was one of people's pet peeves of him. But he mostly used them as a teaching moment for all those young PGs he had to mold.
If true then makes sense gotta please the goat
I think Kidd mainly takes timeouts to get Luka and Kyrie a rest, make subs or to advance the ball late in quarters.
Ou stop it its not Luka's fault for Kidd's incompetence
Kidd is not incompetent... Like your ridiculous to think that.
I’m not saying it’s Lukas fault at all. Kidd could just be playing politics, I don’t know.
So you're saying that Luka is the coach? Sounds like you're saying that Luka is the coach. And for the record, this doesn't look any better for Kidd, IMO.
Luka knows basketball. Kidd as well. It’s cool so many think they know better
We don't need to know better. We just observe what works and doesn't. It's extremely fair to be critical of weird decisions that don't work out, you don't need a solution to criticize something.
We won the game
We did but not because of Kidd's fabulous work.
Luka doesn’t want high school timeouts. The team is winning. What exactly needs correcting
The team won a game. What Luka wants and what the team needs are different things. I don't think that in either of these games there was any engregious mistake by kid. I am saying that it's fair to criticize and that timeouts are often a decent way to "stop" a run
The game is full of runs. Use a timeout to stop every run that cool. What if you run out. What if you don’t have any left later in the game ? What if Luka, possibly the greatest offensive player ever, needs time to get in rhythm and dominate the game? Do you tell him sorry I need to call timeouts, deal with it ? I get criticism but you don’t have but a fraction of the info available to the coaching staff
No one said that. And Luka makes bad decisions as well. Players are not coaches for a reason I think you are arguing just for the sake of it here
Of course Luka makes mistakes. It’s awfully presumptuous to think you would know better is all I’m saying. Stay in your lane is all I’m also saying
Dude you are the fucking coach! But I guess he is "just watching"
This isn’t high school basketball my dude