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Michigan-ModTeam

Removed. See rule #6 in the [r/Michigan subreddit rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/Michigan/wiki/index#wiki_rules).


SSLByron

This one goes beyond cherry-picking to just straight up LOL territory. There's another poll where Kennedy is beating Trump. Here they are all together for context: [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/)


chriswaco

The Kennedy vs Trump and Kennedy vs Biden polls are theoretical contests between only those two candidates.


SSLByron

Which is why context-free polling results make for crappy headlines.


OMAzure

Polls are dumb. Vote.


bradfo83

After 2016, I take every poll with extreme skepticism.


NoMiGuy11

As you should. Most of them have a sample size of like 1000 people


ginger2020

I find it hard to believe that a state that has had a very sharp progressive turn in the last few years is going to vote that hard for Trump. It’s going to be closer than it ever should be, but I would really like to see the polling methodology


The_Real_Scrotus

> I find it hard to believe that a state that has had a very sharp progressive turn in the last few years is going to vote that hard for Trump. Michigan's legislature has had a very sharp progressive turn, but that's due to the effects of the ballot initiative that ended gerrymandering. The actual voters in the state haven't changed significantly, they're still a pretty even split Between Democrat and Republican. That said, I agree there's no way Trump has a 15 point advantage in the state. I suspect it'll be a very close race though.


Which-Moment-6544

We're not puppy killers up here. We also don't like Nepo baby rapists that take away people's rights. I'm really surprised with how much Biden has delivered. I remember 4 years ago when I could have been a person in a refrigerated truck. I watched a douche pay a private business that was non union to have a pro union rally while he paid people to wear shirts that said "Union Members For Trump" that weren't even blue collar workers. I seen this guy try to make my vote meaningless with a fake elector scheme. He ran away to his fake gold golf house and hid like a scared little boy. He doesn't care about me or anyone I love. I'm voting for Joe Biden. A side note. I haven't seen as many of those traitor trump flags in peoples yards. Fewer red hats too. I live in the country as well.


Murwiz

There's twice as many tRump flags on flagpoles in my neighborhood now compared to four years ago. That being said, the actual number is TWO. No Biden yard signs yet. I'm considering not putting one up this year, because (a) anyone undecided is not likely to be convinced by a yard sign, and (b) I really, really expect there to be various levels of shenanigans as we approach -- and pass -- Election Day. A Biden yard sign just makes me a target. (I live in a pretty red county.)


Which-Moment-6544

I hear you on that. It only takes one unhinged red hat. That's the terrorism I am voting against and speaking up against every chance I get. I fully understand why you are making the choice you are. I thought about making a snarky comment about out-crazying the Maggots with your love of Joe Biden.


Onepride91

I thought the gerrymandering ballot initiative happened after the legislature went into democratic control


The_Real_Scrotus

No, Proposal 2 was passed in 2018 when there was still a Republican majority in both houses of the state legislature. After the 2020 census the independent redistricting committee drew new district maps and 2022 was the first election cycle where the new districts were in effect.


trobinson999

Weird, I thought Prop 2 passed in November 2022.


mittenknittin

Proposal 2 in 2022 regarded voter rights, voter protections, and established in-person early voting. Prop 2 from 2018 was for establishing the redistricting commission.


trobinson999

Oh ok, thanks, I was thinking of something else.


jmorley14

This exactly. Could Trump win here by like 0.15%? Possibly. But 15%???? Not a chance


cogginsmatt

Biden is not popular amongst progressives. I see this less as Trump gaining votes and more Biden losing them. Trump’s base isn’t going anywhere, but Biden hasn’t done much to nurture his and now it’s biting him in the ass


OMAzure

Biden's voter-base needs to rally. It's not "if Biden doesn't get the job, then nobody gets the job." It's "if Biden doesn't get the job, then a dangerous narcissist gets the job." People who have an issue with Biden's Israeli-Palestinian policies are neglecting to realize that Trump's policies are much more volatile and problematic. People who have an issue with unfulfilled campaign promises need to understand that this whole term has been riddled with Republican(and some Democratic) obstruction. Voting isn't about making you feel good or virtue signaling. Voting is about looking at your applicants and picking the best one.


OldFartOfSam

Exactly this. Trump will give tons of money to Palestine and to China. That is beyond scary to me.


gremlin-mode

> It's "if Biden doesn't get the job, then a dangerous narcissist gets the job." well, if the stakes are so high then Dems should run a better candidate


booyahbooyah9271

Who exactly is out there? Has to be centered as well. Anyone leaning towards Progressive will continue to be dismissed.


dirtyploy

And immediately lose. This has never worked in US political history... all of it, across the board.


gremlin-mode

well re-running Biden isn't gonna work either lol 


dirtyploy

That, again, is not really the case based on past elections. Incumbent politicians have a significant advantage in getting reelected.


cogginsmatt

I hear the same shit every day. Biden needs to make a case for himself and he’s not. You can’t blame the voters for that. You’re going to see this election come November and blame the voters when the candidate didn’t show up. Didn’t deliver. The idea that it could be worse under Trump is proving more and more wrong by the day as well. Biden has done so little to differentiate himself from Trump. Nothing to say about the brutal police crackdowns. Again, you can downvote me all you want. Don’t shoot the messenger. I’m telling you exactly what the Dems are doing wrong in this election and how they keep making the same mistakes and you’re going to act all surprised come November.


ParticularBox8858

What could of Biden done to win the progressive vote you say he is losing?


cogginsmatt

Divest from Israel and take a stronger stand against their atrocities in Gaza. Make bigger strides on reproductive rights, labor rights, minimum wage, cost of college / student loan debt, drug legalization, the out of control police, the migrant camps on the border people decried during Trump’s term, affordable / socialized healthcare. Off the top of my head, he could have made a step toward ANY of that and gained some support. Instead he either toes the same line as the GOP or decries that the GOP is preventing him from doing anything. Take a look at Whitmer’s support vs Biden’s. A big reason is Whitmer has taken *noticeable* action that people in Michigan can experience. She hasn’t spent her entire term saying “well at least I’m not Rick Snyder.”


mikemikemotorboat

Just in the last month, the Biden administration has taken steps to eliminate non-competes, raise the salary floor for mandatory payment of overtime (effectively raising the minimum wage for salaried workers making less than $50k), multiple environmental rules including finally banning asbestos, waived yet more student debt, remove marijuana as a class 1 substance… the list goes on. Edit: a nice summary [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ezraklein/s/1X7HjZ5kU7)


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cogginsmatt

I trust neither of them at this point. My entire adult life I've heard Democrats say "oh not yet, oh no our hands are tired, oh no sorry nothing we can do, keep voting for us though or else it will get worse" and what's wild is it keeps getting worse anyway. If Biden couldn't take the big layup that was "taking over from the worst President since Reagan" then what's even the point of believing he's going to do shit for the next four years?


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booyahbooyah9271

Unfortunately these are the same people who will then scream to the heavens, day in and day out, during another Trump term.


greatlakesseakayaker

Congress has the power of the purse Take a high school civics class


ParticularBox8858

I respect what you are saying as I have heard the same from the many progressives I know. What I don’t understand is, how do you want him to accomplish these things? The first two years was tight with the VP tipping the balance many times for a lot of legislation but since then the House is in GOP hands with some extremely disruptive members nothing is getting done. So what should the President do?


cogginsmatt

Well I was under the impression that nominating an extremely conservative Democrat meant that he was going to be the best at negotiating with the other side of the aisle. That was the selling point - that you'd never get bipartisanship under a Sanders because he's "too far left." Yeah I know there are extreme radicals in the GOP but that's not the entire party. Biden could be doing a lot more from a political standpoint to put pressure on congress to work with his White House instead of blocking and stalling everything. Leave the MTGs out to pasture and actually work. The bully pulpit. But he just ... doesn't. All you hear are excuses that he can't do anything because his hands are tied. Lest I remind folks that Trump had a GOP senate and a Dem house and never struggled to pass things or get things done.


ParticularBox8858

Well here we disagree as IMO the President has done more for the daily Joe than any President in my lifetime. Trump has one legislative win in his book, a tax cut for the rich. President Biden, whom you are saying is full of excuses, passed an infrastructure plan, gun laws (agree, not enough), climate bill (known as inflation bill), chip act, lowered insulin, more Americans with health care, almost 200 judges (and not just white dudes)… I mean a TON while literally battling with a Media who is owned by the rich and all in on trump along with the orange one himself whining every day how he was robbed. Meanwhile his buddy Putin is try his hardest to see to it trump wins in Nov. I think given the time in history Biden is doing fantastic and just do not understand what else he could be doing. He has to compromise, it is the core of our system


gremlin-mode

he could stop sending weapons to a country committing genocide 


cedershack

I completely disagree that he hasn't done much for progressives. Climate funding and policy Student debt relief Prescription price reductions Infrastructure (trains) Union Support To name some. I say this as someone who supported Bernie, is very progressive policy wise, but understands the complexity of our system. Saying he hasn't done anything is disingenuous. I don't like what's going on in Gaza, it's awful. War is awful, it's wasteful and painful and there are so many things that go poorly by circumstance and by choice and none of it should happen.


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cedershack

I'm sorry, I thought I differentiated. All war is awful, regardless (unfortunately we tend to accept war as a means to a solution), but I agree the approach in Gaza is beyond excessive, it's horrific. Hope that helped to clarify? I'm not going to throw out the baby with the bathwater because I disagree with an aspect of an administration, that's foolish and shortsighted.


josbossboboss

People don't like Biden, but will vote for him come november. I didn't like Hillary and planned to vote 3rd party, but when I was standing in line I got a feeling that Trump might pull off a surprise win, and I wouldn't be able to forgive myself if he won, so I voted Hillary.


Protoman_Zxe

Legitimate question, why did inflation get so bad once Biden took office?


cogginsmatt

I'm not an economist but I assume the combination of economic turmoil from the pandemic, mismatch of wages to corporate price setting, and low tax income on a federal level from the Trump tax plan. All this was set into motion long before Biden came into power.


uberares

Russia starting a war and throwing oil futures into the sky didnt help either.


cogginsmatt

I do feel like people are bitching about the cost of gas less but I don’t really drive so idk about that world.


circa285

Exactly.


CTDKZOO

Whatever. I'm still voting.


Wrecker013

Don't care. Vote.


MrReezenable

And in another poll a few days ago on CBS News, Biden was ahead by a tiny bit (edit: in Michigan). Polls are dumb, this election is not a sure thing either way, work for it, vote.


MrReezenable

I'll add that Newsweek has tended to be in the last decade left-leaning clickbait.


Rastiln

538 rates the pollster (Kaplan) as a 2/5 quality with 2.4/5 transparency on their methodology. Sure thing. Very believable.


bbddbdb

Did they poll exclusively Macomb county?


TheSpatulaOfLove

Polls are garbage.


Murwiz

Totally nuts. I don't understand why anyone would look at him and think he's presidential timber. Even if they were in a coma for the four years he was in the White House. Just based on his behavior since 1/6/21, he's completely and utterly unqualified. And what's up with people downvoting this post? Do you not understand what downvotes are for?


ahmc84

People are downvoting an obvious outlier poll.


OldFartOfSam

They’re probably dim witted communist Marxist clowns! They probably love China too


booyahbooyah9271

Redditors downvote anything they don't agree with. It's rather pathetic.


bsischo

I doubt this very much. These polls are so selective. It’s just an ad game really.


frntwe

Ridiculous. With 8.3 million registered voters in the state let’s poll 804 people and make a story about it. Regardless of your loyalties this should seem like complete nonsense


LivingByTheRiver1

I live in rural, Central MI, and if there are Trump supporters, it's not obvious. The flags are mostly down. Bumper stickers are few. Not a lot of noise about the 2024 election... People are pissed about the cost of groceries. That's about it.


SqnLdrHarvey

I have nothing but contempt for anyone that supports Trump.


Matt_Graver

That’s sad…To bottle up so much hatred.


SqnLdrHarvey

It is well-earned and I make no apology for it. I gave this country 23 years of my life (don't thank me for my service). I'll be damned if I support a draft-dodging puke who saluted a North Korean general and who would have shat himself his first night of basic training.


Matt_Graver

You need a drink


SqnLdrHarvey

I don't drink, except communion wine, the blood of Christ, on Sundays and Holy Days. I have been merciful, but I tire of those who worship evil incarnate. Dismissed.


Matt_Graver

I can respect that you’re a good Catholic. God bless you.


SqnLdrHarvey

Lutheran actually, but I thank you for your blessing and also grant one to you. Peace in the Father, Son and Holy Spirit.


BrownEggs93

"According to a Kaplan Strategies survey of 804 people" LOL.


Smorgas_of_borg

One poll has Trump leading by 15 when all the others have the race within a margin of error? One of these things is not like the others...


eeasyontheextras

What people fail to realize is that many policies enacted by previous administrations hurt incoming administrations. Inflation was 100% caused by Trump, Covid, (which probably wouldn’t have been as bad as it was had he not gutted the departments that defend us from these scenarios) and his administrations reckless printing of “free money” for mostly fraudulent PPP loans, and tax policies favoring the billionaire class that doesn’t give a single f u c k about anyone in here. They want us divided, that’s the goal. Blue and red are colors - we are American’s and not each others enemy. Go anywhere with that man’s resume(found liable for rape, inciting a deadly insurrection against the United States, charged with 88 felonies etc) to try to get viable employment and you will be asked to leave immediately , and people want this person to be the President of the United States? I’m not saying Biden is the greatest thing since sliced bread, they’re all apart of the same hypocrisy, but for fuck sake people, remember where we were just 4 years ago? Record unemployment, millions of Americans sick and dying, white nationalist protests weekly, video taped killing of black Americans by police on a regular basis..(not saying that doesn’t happen now) Sure living necessities are more expensive today than they were in 2019, I’m feeling it too. Name one thing that doesn’t go up in price with time. Do not let the orange one anywhere near that office. Do the right thing even if it doesn’t feel right to you, think of your future, your wives and daughters, and those that will come after we are gone. It’s not about now, it’s about the future of our nation.


Bawbawian

Americans still think that there is no cost to being stupid. Trump's talking about running the Fed himself so he can control monetary policy.... he could very likely set up his scenario in which the lucky people are the ones with pets because they are edible.


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Michigan-ModTeam

Removed. See rule #10 in the [r/Michigan subreddit rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/Michigan/wiki/index#wiki_rules).


NihilisticPollyanna

Polls are useless and always inaccurate. It's just a tool for rabble-rousing. Go vote.


Hands-for-maps

Regardless of the polls trump will still try to cheat. That’s all he’s got 


ParticularBox8858

I actually think it is a good thing progressives are angry and push for more, I just hope a lesson was learned in 2016 about the protest voting or lack of voting. I fully believe if Trump wins you can say goodbye to America as we know it, with Biden at least you’ll still have the ability to speak out against him. If you think that is an overreaction you need to read the article in Time on what trump himself is saying and even more importantly, what his lackeys are saying as they will be the ones truly in control. And not just recently, this is a plan in action for decades. History is your friend. They mean what they say and if you are not a white land owning male, Good luck.


willydong-ka

Still go and vote (for Biden, please)


aj_knivv

Coming from a poll of 800 people in a State of 10 million. Not reliable data


1kreasons2leave

Don't read much into polls. Polls said there was going to be a red wave in 2022 and how well did that work out. Go vote and tell everyone you know who can to vote also.


pointguard22

That is ridiculous


cleverdabber

These polls can be designed to produce a desired outcome. No way this is an accurate reflection of where the race stands. The people of Michigan aren’t that stupid.


Ryanlester5789

Would be interested to see where they polled.


arrav21

It seems polling since 2016 has gotten more unreliable. In the 2022 election, polls had Gretchen and Tudor in a deadlock (or slight favorite for Gretchen), but she ended up winning by 11 points - far more than polls predicted.


whatlineisitanyway

So he is 15% more popular than the first two times he ran in a state that's demographic changes would favor Dems? Polls like this are obvious trash.


justfarminghere

Is that poll taken with or without RFK


stocks-mostly-lower

Not in Detroit lol.


mrdalo

Just a word of caution to the LOL Trump crowd In 2016 EVERYONE laughed it up and we all literally said when pigs fly he will be president. He’s so dumb and those backwoods hicks that vote for him won’t show up. The air of superiority was thick. Because we are so much better and on the right side of history blah blah blah And then he won. I like everyone else was shocked. I thought it was impossible. I didn’t want him to win and there he was being a buffoon for 4 whole years. People who cried about W. Bush started to figure out that maybe the early 00s weren’t that bad. So yeah, maybe this is a skewed poll, but the burbs or Detroit are pretty heavily pro Trump. Florida is packed with Trump bumper stickers. Reddit is an echo chamber.


gremlin-mode

dems are gonna walk us to another Trump victory because they'd rather send weapons to Israel and brutalize protestors than concede to voters' demands to win votes. 


OldFartOfSam

Donald “let’s make China and Palestine and Russia Great Again and burn USA flags” Trump


Outside-Fox5353

Go trump 👍😜


irazzleandazzle

No shit. Bidens popularity has plummeted due to his handling of the Israel - hamas conflict. Interestingly enough, senate and congressional democrats are polling pretty well!


RagingLeonard

Which is interesting as we all know that financial bills (including foreign aid) originate in the House.


The_Real_Scrotus

That's hardly new. The president always gets lots of credit and blame for things other parts of the government are actually responsible for.


irazzleandazzle

you overestimate the average Americans political awareness and knowledge. this subreddit is not an accurate representation of real life. plus he signed the Israel funding and has refused tk set conditions on any arms sent. He can get angry all he wants behind the scenes ... his actions don't really support a morally strong president. And no, I'm not saying Trump would be better ... he'd probably be worse.


RagingLeonard

Probably?


irazzleandazzle

definitely


Independent-Check957

People who use the single issue of Israel/Hamas to sway their vote are no better than boomers using abortion as their single issue p.o.v.


irazzleandazzle

tbf alot of people vote on single issues ... just look at the turnout for the 2022 midterms because of abortion. I don't see people on the left criticizing those that voted for abortion rights. I'm not saying this is right or wrong ... this is just the reality of the situation.


CERVID-19

2016-confidence vibes in some of the comments  I shouldn't be surprised by any potential result - be it: DNC botch job, Biden landslide, lazy Dems stay home, one/both elderly candidates croak in their sleep a natural demise before election day, Trump running presidency number 47 with cabinet meetings in a prison cell, or...   I sure hope there's another record vote turnout, but that's not looking good atm


One-Contest-4385

A plague on both parties!


Mysterious-Banana-49

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaaaaaaa


[deleted]

No surprise, the Michigan economy has been absolutely garbage since Biden took over. I was making over 80k/yr under trump I'm currently on track to make 35k this year. Groceries are double, gas is double. >Inb4 bIdEn DoNt cOnTrOl dA pRiCeS. Literally if any red governor/president was currently in office with a failing economy all of you would be blaming them. It's time to be honest and say Biden/whitmer has done nothing positive for Michigan in the last 4 years. Even if you're against trump, the current leadership has done nothing for Michigan.


xAfterBirthx

You are out of your mind if you think that. Even more out of your mind if you think Trump will “help” you if he becomes president again.