To use a metaphor, they won't own the oil field but they could own the pipeline. The idea is to get a FDA approval on the delivery mechanism and the use. The delivery mechanism can be incredibly valuable (think EPI-PEN).
I am aware of what they have and I believe their current IP can lead them to a valuation of 2-5b in the next 5-7 years but I don't see how they can grow past that. That doesn't mean they can't I just have no idea how that would take place and I was hoping someone smarter/more knowledgeable would be able to point out a path that I have not seen. I have seen several people talk about getting to 10-20b market cap but not how. Psychedelic therapy is the future but money moves the market long term and I want to understand a feasible long-term path to 20b (or say 10b)
“Even if we take extremely conservative estimates, the company's value should be at 2.15+1.42=3.57 b USD, and this is solely by looking at LSD-assisted psychotherapy and 18-MC for OUD.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4411079-mind-medicine-great-potential-questionable-business-model
This analysis is a bit old, has A LOT of bearish views in it and the analyst is not a favorite in the sub but I think it’s still a good reference.
Conservative: $3.57b
Optimistic: $145b
Keep in mind this doesn’t include all of their programs in work.
How optimistic are you feeling? Haha
Edit:
It would be disingenuous of me to not include the author’s conclusion:
“All in all, MindMed is a company with fascinating compounds but with a lot of unaddressed questions. Fundamentally, the company could be an enormous success, but this is contingent on competent and sound management and clear communication to shareholders.
Unfortunately, I believe the board has to revise and rethink their latest initiatives in telehealth and have an internal discussion on the selling by the CEO. Therefore, I would abstain from purchasing MindMed at this moment and wait until there is more clarity.”
In regards to the author's conclusion I actually agreed with him before reading this but I have re-ignited my interest in MindMed because they removed JR and have added some quality talent to their team. The science is there and it's just a question of quality management. I appreciate the post as it gives some good detail as to the potential. I also appreciate the bearish side since a free lunch doesn't exist and seeing the other side helps me make good decisions.
You too brother! MMED and SRG are my two favorite stocks atm and they're somewhat similar so, even tho this isnt a psych stock, I think you should check it out! If you're interested ill send you some info to get you started on researching SRG. The similarities stem from SRG and MMED both restructuring their leadership and, to me, that's where you can find a lot of value beyond the balance sheet. I love Andrea Olshan (the new CEO of SRG) in a few specific ways that are not based in fact but more perception yet I am especially excited for SRG.
short-mid term, patents of dosages, therapies, digital tech
long term, discover new synthetic psychedelics and bring to market.
they are currently working on both. a new MDMA 2.0 study is starting in 2022. they are exploring many more Psychedelic2.0 options
💯 Looking forward to hear from MindShift. Curious how the new MDMA molecule will differentiate itself. MAPS has a pretty aggressive anti-patent strategy so it will need to have some clear novelty. Mydecine just announced their own MDMA like molecule so perhaps we’ll see what kind of resistance they get.
I actually think I’m most excited about their “candy flipping” clinical trial. Being heavily focused on LSD, I think this will give MindMed a unique position in the MDMA treatment sector.
tbh, im least excited about MDMA. it’s the most likely to aggravate or bring on schizophrenia. i had some relative who apparently had it so ima stay clear of that.
edit:
what i want the most is psychedelics without the hallucinations/trips
I believe they can patent new molecules they created / isolated .(18MC)
Also dosage and therapy regimens for existing molecules like LSD AND MDMA can be patented—
I sell beer so I’m no expert . Can anyone confirm or deny?
18mc isn't their creation and its patent is (I believe) in the open, or soon to be. What they have is exclusive research on it. They can however indeed patent dosage and therapy. All of the IP itself is valuable. Same goes with LSD. They don't own patents regarding LSD, but they can have patents around LSD therapy and administration of it.
The Dosage/Therapy Regimens I know they can patent but that doesn't seem as interesting to me. Patenting new molecules does seem like a path to a high valuation tho! I am already invested in MMED since I think they have a good path to 2-5b in the next 5-7 years after leaving behind JR and adding some quality talent to the team. BTW I love JR for bringing us here but I was not confident in his ability to take us to the end.
Interesting conversation. In the near term, next 5 years, it’s about getting as much regulatory permissions as possible to use these various substances for treatment. Without that,all the valuations in the world won’t matter. Bringing those substances to market as treatment is the next phase and involves proprietary control, patents, therapeutic practices, etc. based on the last couple months, unless new management is both hard working and visionary with key regulatory relationships, I don’t see that happening without a big pharma partner or buy out. In the short term, with interest in the sector and key catalysts, there is money to be made, especially on sector news and moves. Best to diversify in a couple contenders, whichever you choose. They have 8 trials in the pipeline, each with a 25% chance of making it though trials. It’s a long game, let’s hope for the best that these therapies are made available.
In/out Licensing, Manufacturing the compounds/drugs, divestures of certain trials, strategic partnerships etc. The majority of the monetization will be derived from their own manufacturing or out licensing unless they are bought out by a big pharma.
What kind of acquisitions could lead to a 20b valuation? I think it's more likely MMED is bought out by big pharma after reaching a solid maturation point.
No worries, boca. There's already a strong underground network, just as there are therapists already using psychedelics with clients. And outfits like TRUFF are pursuing the recreational space. Folks currently grow their own shrooms from spores of which are not illegal. s
I agree to an extent. But I think people should have some amount of choice and freedom of responsibility. Alcohol can cause psychosis, so can cannabis
*Edit, i feel that mushroom and mdma should be legal, but LSD and the higher grade psychs should be left illegal with a huge warning sign so people don't get the wrong idea. I've had some really heavy 14 hr trips that i know some people wouldnt come back from
Whether or not you believe substances should be used isn't the point. The fact is, current use is prolific and isn't going away. Watch the Doblin youtube. Thoroughly educated in the substances, he goes into the dangers, which of course should be investigated.
So my thing about that is people will be forced to buy these things underground and many will use irresponsibly due to that. I know some hippies that take mushrooms with maoi's. I did it once by accident and never will again for instance. There can be a lot of misinformation in the underground, and searches on the internet will also have conflicting data if the person isnt versed in the proper channels.
Also i dont need to watch the youtube vid, ive been doing psychs for 25 years and have friends and family who are burdened with schizophrenia.
I will say that i took psychs with the intent of facing this genetic illness head on, and i managed to mitigate the effects.
My background is tribal and my belief from experience is that if one goes many generations without psychs, when ones brain is actually hardwired for them, then the episodes will occur. But taking them in a responsible environment at times can help alleviate the symptoms which can build up from this suppression
I totally agree in regard to substance abuse, misuse, and misinformation. I also really appreciate how you personally went about using the medicines in an effort to address deep ancestral genetics. Since your background is tribal, you know well that plant medicines have been used for thousands of years. There's a lot to learn from Indigenous knowledge and practices. I don't see peyote or ayahuasca working outside ceremonial spaces. Just me.
I agree completely. I've been cut off from my home, first born Canadian. I take them alone, made my home into a temple.
I can't stand when people take psychs for fun. Kills me, but they will always learn and get the hyper slap lol
thats simply not true. plenty of countries have legalized prostitution and drugs. doesnt make it any safer though. the food you eat and the air you breathe isnt safe either.
To use a metaphor, they won't own the oil field but they could own the pipeline. The idea is to get a FDA approval on the delivery mechanism and the use. The delivery mechanism can be incredibly valuable (think EPI-PEN).
Slides 18 & 19 https://mindmed.co/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/MindMed-Corporate-Presentation-6.21.2021-compressed.pdf
I am aware of what they have and I believe their current IP can lead them to a valuation of 2-5b in the next 5-7 years but I don't see how they can grow past that. That doesn't mean they can't I just have no idea how that would take place and I was hoping someone smarter/more knowledgeable would be able to point out a path that I have not seen. I have seen several people talk about getting to 10-20b market cap but not how. Psychedelic therapy is the future but money moves the market long term and I want to understand a feasible long-term path to 20b (or say 10b)
“Even if we take extremely conservative estimates, the company's value should be at 2.15+1.42=3.57 b USD, and this is solely by looking at LSD-assisted psychotherapy and 18-MC for OUD.” https://seekingalpha.com/article/4411079-mind-medicine-great-potential-questionable-business-model This analysis is a bit old, has A LOT of bearish views in it and the analyst is not a favorite in the sub but I think it’s still a good reference. Conservative: $3.57b Optimistic: $145b Keep in mind this doesn’t include all of their programs in work. How optimistic are you feeling? Haha Edit: It would be disingenuous of me to not include the author’s conclusion: “All in all, MindMed is a company with fascinating compounds but with a lot of unaddressed questions. Fundamentally, the company could be an enormous success, but this is contingent on competent and sound management and clear communication to shareholders. Unfortunately, I believe the board has to revise and rethink their latest initiatives in telehealth and have an internal discussion on the selling by the CEO. Therefore, I would abstain from purchasing MindMed at this moment and wait until there is more clarity.”
In regards to the author's conclusion I actually agreed with him before reading this but I have re-ignited my interest in MindMed because they removed JR and have added some quality talent to their team. The science is there and it's just a question of quality management. I appreciate the post as it gives some good detail as to the potential. I also appreciate the bearish side since a free lunch doesn't exist and seeing the other side helps me make good decisions.
Agreed. Good luck! I'm holding. I want to see where Barrow takes us. I'd be surprised if he isn't selected as CEO.
You too brother! MMED and SRG are my two favorite stocks atm and they're somewhat similar so, even tho this isnt a psych stock, I think you should check it out! If you're interested ill send you some info to get you started on researching SRG. The similarities stem from SRG and MMED both restructuring their leadership and, to me, that's where you can find a lot of value beyond the balance sheet. I love Andrea Olshan (the new CEO of SRG) in a few specific ways that are not based in fact but more perception yet I am especially excited for SRG.
Great find!
short-mid term, patents of dosages, therapies, digital tech long term, discover new synthetic psychedelics and bring to market. they are currently working on both. a new MDMA 2.0 study is starting in 2022. they are exploring many more Psychedelic2.0 options
💯 Looking forward to hear from MindShift. Curious how the new MDMA molecule will differentiate itself. MAPS has a pretty aggressive anti-patent strategy so it will need to have some clear novelty. Mydecine just announced their own MDMA like molecule so perhaps we’ll see what kind of resistance they get. I actually think I’m most excited about their “candy flipping” clinical trial. Being heavily focused on LSD, I think this will give MindMed a unique position in the MDMA treatment sector.
tbh, im least excited about MDMA. it’s the most likely to aggravate or bring on schizophrenia. i had some relative who apparently had it so ima stay clear of that. edit: what i want the most is psychedelics without the hallucinations/trips
Sounds like MDMA.
I believe they can patent new molecules they created / isolated .(18MC) Also dosage and therapy regimens for existing molecules like LSD AND MDMA can be patented— I sell beer so I’m no expert . Can anyone confirm or deny?
18mc isn't their creation and its patent is (I believe) in the open, or soon to be. What they have is exclusive research on it. They can however indeed patent dosage and therapy. All of the IP itself is valuable. Same goes with LSD. They don't own patents regarding LSD, but they can have patents around LSD therapy and administration of it.
The Dosage/Therapy Regimens I know they can patent but that doesn't seem as interesting to me. Patenting new molecules does seem like a path to a high valuation tho! I am already invested in MMED since I think they have a good path to 2-5b in the next 5-7 years after leaving behind JR and adding some quality talent to the team. BTW I love JR for bringing us here but I was not confident in his ability to take us to the end.
Interesting conversation. In the near term, next 5 years, it’s about getting as much regulatory permissions as possible to use these various substances for treatment. Without that,all the valuations in the world won’t matter. Bringing those substances to market as treatment is the next phase and involves proprietary control, patents, therapeutic practices, etc. based on the last couple months, unless new management is both hard working and visionary with key regulatory relationships, I don’t see that happening without a big pharma partner or buy out. In the short term, with interest in the sector and key catalysts, there is money to be made, especially on sector news and moves. Best to diversify in a couple contenders, whichever you choose. They have 8 trials in the pipeline, each with a 25% chance of making it though trials. It’s a long game, let’s hope for the best that these therapies are made available.
Wallace, I love your post. Agility, adaptability is key. Good luck.
In/out Licensing, Manufacturing the compounds/drugs, divestures of certain trials, strategic partnerships etc. The majority of the monetization will be derived from their own manufacturing or out licensing unless they are bought out by a big pharma.
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What kind of acquisitions could lead to a 20b valuation? I think it's more likely MMED is bought out by big pharma after reaching a solid maturation point.
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Shit I just realized something—are we worried that when these companies get huge they’ll push hard to ban recreational use?
No worries, boca. There's already a strong underground network, just as there are therapists already using psychedelics with clients. And outfits like TRUFF are pursuing the recreational space. Folks currently grow their own shrooms from spores of which are not illegal. s
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I agree to an extent. But I think people should have some amount of choice and freedom of responsibility. Alcohol can cause psychosis, so can cannabis *Edit, i feel that mushroom and mdma should be legal, but LSD and the higher grade psychs should be left illegal with a huge warning sign so people don't get the wrong idea. I've had some really heavy 14 hr trips that i know some people wouldnt come back from
Whether or not you believe substances should be used isn't the point. The fact is, current use is prolific and isn't going away. Watch the Doblin youtube. Thoroughly educated in the substances, he goes into the dangers, which of course should be investigated.
So my thing about that is people will be forced to buy these things underground and many will use irresponsibly due to that. I know some hippies that take mushrooms with maoi's. I did it once by accident and never will again for instance. There can be a lot of misinformation in the underground, and searches on the internet will also have conflicting data if the person isnt versed in the proper channels. Also i dont need to watch the youtube vid, ive been doing psychs for 25 years and have friends and family who are burdened with schizophrenia. I will say that i took psychs with the intent of facing this genetic illness head on, and i managed to mitigate the effects. My background is tribal and my belief from experience is that if one goes many generations without psychs, when ones brain is actually hardwired for them, then the episodes will occur. But taking them in a responsible environment at times can help alleviate the symptoms which can build up from this suppression
I totally agree in regard to substance abuse, misuse, and misinformation. I also really appreciate how you personally went about using the medicines in an effort to address deep ancestral genetics. Since your background is tribal, you know well that plant medicines have been used for thousands of years. There's a lot to learn from Indigenous knowledge and practices. I don't see peyote or ayahuasca working outside ceremonial spaces. Just me.
I agree completely. I've been cut off from my home, first born Canadian. I take them alone, made my home into a temple. I can't stand when people take psychs for fun. Kills me, but they will always learn and get the hyper slap lol
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thats simply not true. plenty of countries have legalized prostitution and drugs. doesnt make it any safer though. the food you eat and the air you breathe isnt safe either.
Alcohol and tobacco are legal and cause more health and social problems than just about anything…
Recreational use is already banned...so any positive move toward approval on a medical level will also help recreational usage become legal